CN115545354A - Artificial intelligence load prediction method and system for intelligent Internet of things platform - Google Patents

Artificial intelligence load prediction method and system for intelligent Internet of things platform Download PDF

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CN115545354A
CN115545354A CN202211512758.4A CN202211512758A CN115545354A CN 115545354 A CN115545354 A CN 115545354A CN 202211512758 A CN202211512758 A CN 202211512758A CN 115545354 A CN115545354 A CN 115545354A
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郭晓艳
孙先范
马彩霞
张翼英
刘晨
刘怡
祝文军
王凯
李炎
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Information and Telecommunication Branch of State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention belongs to the technical field of artificial intelligence load prediction, and particularly relates to an artificial intelligence load prediction method and system for an intelligent Internet of things platform, wherein the method comprises the following steps: processing the acquired data to obtain sequence data; constructing a model and carrying out model training on the sequence data; carrying out feature screening on the trained data; and predicting the power load according to the data after the characteristic screening. The system comprises a data acquisition unit, a model construction unit, a feature screening unit and a prediction unit. The method and the device realize accurate prediction of the future power load by acquiring the load data, using the CNN to perform feature extraction, screening and data enhancement, and performing internal association on the current data and the past and future load data through the BilSTM, have stronger processing capability on a complex nonlinear system, and are suitable for short-term load prediction with stronger randomness and volatility.

Description

Artificial intelligence load prediction method and system for intelligent Internet of things platform
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of artificial intelligence load prediction, and particularly relates to an artificial intelligence load prediction method and system for an intelligent internet of things platform.
Background
At present, a power grid company needs to realize digital transformation of production, operation and management, and the digitization of each professional line needs to be supported, wherein the four aspects of object-object interconnection, object-object mutual control, data sharing and full-service online are basic requirements of the digital transformation of the company, and the intelligent Internet of things platform is pregnant with the basic requirements. The intelligent internet of things platform has the characteristics of flexible and various communication, flexible and flexible interface, intelligent and efficient addressing, real-time acquisition, fusion and sharing, massive data storage throughput, real-time acquisition, fusion and sharing and flexible interface.
At present, the problem of insufficient power supply often occurs during the peak period of power utilization, and power utilization data are acquired fussy and are processed to consume a large amount of manpower and material resources, so that the traditional power load prediction algorithm is difficult to adapt to the power load under the new potential. The power load prediction is an important component of power system planning and is the basis of the economic operation of a power grid. The method is divided into different prediction objects, and the power load prediction mainly comprises prediction of future power demand, prediction of future power consumption and prediction of load curves. By predicting the time distribution and the space distribution of the future power load, an effective decision basis is provided for power planning operation.
The existing power grid load prediction methods mainly include methods based on mathematical statistics, such as multivariate linear regression, kalman filtering, exponential smoothing and the like, and although the methods are simple in calculation and high in calculation efficiency, the methods have poor processing capability on a complex nonlinear system and are not suitable for short-term load prediction with strong randomness and volatility. The other method is a power grid load prediction method based on machine learning, wherein the short-term load prediction method based on the TCA-CNN-LSTM builds a model by combining a CA-CNN module and a TA-LSTM module, and realizes the reinforcement of feature expression and the fine depiction of load time sequence data.
In order to solve the above problems, it is necessary to design an artificial intelligence load prediction method and system for an intelligent internet of things platform.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides an artificial intelligence load prediction method for an intelligent internet of things platform, the method comprising:
processing the acquired data to obtain sequence data;
constructing a model and carrying out model training on the sequence data;
carrying out feature screening on the trained data;
and predicting the power load according to the data after the characteristic screening.
Preferably, the collected data includes current time, load, electricity price, temperature and humidity;
wherein the temperatures include dew point temperature, dry bulb temperature, and wet bulb temperature.
Preferably, the processing the acquired data comprises the following steps:
sequencing the acquired data according to the sequence of time points to form a data queue;
extracting a plurality of data with the length of m from the data queue as feature data;
inputting the characteristic data into a BilSTM module to obtain a load predicted value at the next moment;
moving the characteristic data forward to form new characteristic data with the same length, and predicting the load predicted value at the next moment again until all data are traversed;
and sorting all the load predicted values to form sequence data in continuous sub-time.
Preferably, the characteristic data forwarding specifically includes: and taking a plurality of data with the length of m from the data of the second time point in the current characteristic data as a starting point to form new characteristic data.
Preferably, the model training of the sequence data comprises the steps of:
inputting the sequence data into a model, and performing feature extraction on the sequence data through two layers of one-dimensional convolution layers;
carrying out dimensionality reduction and filtration on the sequence data subjected to feature extraction through a pooling layer and a Flatten layer;
inputting the sequence data into a BilSTM layer, and performing correlation processing on the sequence data through the BilSTM layer;
the sequence data enters a Dense layer to carry out feature enhancement;
and outputting a model training result.
Preferably, the step of feature extraction comprises: the sequence data is mapped in a one-dimensional convolutional layer in a high-dimensional manner.
Preferably, the associating the sequence data through the BilSTM layer comprises the following steps:
carrying out recursive feedback on the hidden layer state of the past data and the hidden layer state of the future data in the sequence data;
the current data, past data, and future data in the sequence data are inherently correlated.
Preferably, the hidden layer state is formed by combining hidden layer output at a previous moment of forward propagation, hidden state at a previous moment of backward propagation, and input at a current moment in the BiLSTM layer, and an expression formula of the hidden layer state is as follows:
Figure 39944DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
wherein,
Figure 425926DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
indicating the state of the forward hidden layer,
Figure 799138DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
a backward hidden layer state is represented,
Figure 663189DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
representing the weight of the hidden layer of the forward propagating unit,
Figure 867774DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
representing the weight of the hidden layer of the back propagation unit,
Figure 142767DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
indicating the bias of the hidden layer at the current moment,
Figure 878642DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
an input representing the current time of day is presented,
Figure 671017DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
representing the hidden layer state at the previous instant of the back propagation,
Figure 808737DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
the hidden layer output at the previous time point representing forward propagation,
Figure 395577DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
the overall hidden state is obtained through front and back bidirectional calculation.
Preferably, the associating the sequence data through the BilSTM layer further comprises:
applying an attention mechanism to highlight key information in the sequence data by weight configuration;
data characteristics dependent on more than a predetermined time are mined from the sequence data.
Preferably, the model is constructed and the performance of the model is evaluated effectively.
Preferably, the formula of the effectiveness evaluation is:
Figure 618748DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
Figure 949235DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
wherein,
Figure 941462DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
the root mean square error is represented as a function of,
Figure 964781DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
the mean absolute percentage error is expressed as a percentage error,
Figure 675248DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
the true value of the ith sample is represented,
Figure 543847DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
represents the predicted value of the ith sample,
Figure 656160DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
indicating the number of sample points.
Preferably, the feature screening comprises: removing irrelevant feature data in the sequence data according to an L1 regularization formula;
the L1 regularization formula is
Figure 584801DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
Wherein,
Figure 172777DEST_PATH_IMAGE019
Figure 720433DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
respectively a training sample and its corresponding label,
Figure 811886DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
in order to be a weight parameter, the weight parameter,
Figure 317954DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
in order to be the objective function, the target function,
Figure 596489DEST_PATH_IMAGE023
in order to be a penalty term,
Figure 213415DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
in order to obtain the penalty term coefficient,
Figure 159374DEST_PATH_IMAGE025
the target function after the irrelevant features are removed.
The invention also provides an artificial intelligence load prediction system facing the intelligent Internet of things platform, which comprises a data acquisition unit, a model construction unit, a feature screening unit and a prediction unit;
the data acquisition unit is used for processing the acquired data to obtain sequence data;
the model building unit is used for building a model and carrying out model training on the sequence data;
the characteristic screening unit is used for screening the characteristics of the trained data;
and the prediction unit is used for predicting the power load according to the data after the characteristic screening.
Preferably, the data acquisition unit is configured to process the acquired data to obtain sequence data, and the sequence data includes:
the data acquisition unit is used for sequencing the acquired data according to the sequence of time points to form a data queue;
extracting a plurality of data with the length of m from the data queue as feature data;
inputting the characteristic data into a BilSTM module to obtain a load predicted value at the next moment;
moving the characteristic data forward to form new characteristic data with the same length, and predicting the load predicted value at the next moment again until all data are traversed;
and sorting all the load predicted values to form sequence data in continuous sub-time.
Preferably, the model building unit is configured to build a model and train the model of the sequence data, and includes:
the model construction unit is used for inputting the sequence data into a model and extracting the characteristics of the sequence data through two layers of one-dimensional convolution layers;
carrying out dimensionality reduction and filtration on the sequence data subjected to feature extraction through a pooling layer and a Flatten layer;
inputting the sequence data into a BilSTM layer, and performing correlation processing on the sequence data through the BilSTM layer;
the sequence data enters a Dense layer to carry out feature enhancement;
and outputting a model training result.
Preferably, the model construction unit is configured to perform feature extraction on the sequence data, and includes:
the model building unit is used for performing high-dimensional mapping on the sequence data in the one-dimensional convolutional layer.
Preferably, the model building unit is configured to perform association processing on the sequence data through a BilSTM layer, and includes:
the model building unit is used for carrying out recursive feedback on the states of a hidden layer of past data and a hidden layer of future data in the sequence data;
the current data, past data, and future data in the sequence data are inherently correlated.
Preferably, the feature screening unit is configured to perform feature screening on the trained data, and includes:
and the characteristic screening unit is used for removing irrelevant characteristic data in the sequence data according to the L1 regularization formula.
Preferably, the L1 regularization formula is
Figure 570764DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
Wherein,
Figure 602174DEST_PATH_IMAGE026
Figure 491632DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
respectively a training sample and its corresponding label,
Figure 557677DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
in order to be a weight parameter, the weight parameter,
Figure 467864DEST_PATH_IMAGE027
in order to be the objective function, the target function,
Figure 658674DEST_PATH_IMAGE028
in order to be a penalty term,
Figure 351824DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
in order to make the penalty term coefficient,
Figure 6796DEST_PATH_IMAGE025
the target function after the irrelevant features are removed.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
(1) The method comprises the steps of firstly, acquiring load data, using CNN to carry out feature extraction, screening and data enhancement, and realizing accurate prediction of future power load through the internal association of BilSTM on current data and past and future load data;
(2) The CNN-BilSTM is applied to the load prediction of the smart power grid, the problems that the original CNN-LSTM model is poor in performance in time sequence capture and the model prediction effect is unstable are solved, the load prediction efficiency is improved, and the efficient operation of the power grid is guaranteed.
Additional features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and drawings.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and those skilled in the art can also obtain other drawings according to the drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a flowchart illustrating an artificial intelligence load prediction method for an intelligent IOT platform according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 shows a schematic diagram of data acquisition in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 illustrates a flow diagram for model building in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 4 shows a BiLSTM layer network structure diagram in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 5 is a graph showing the fitting effect of training and testing results in an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a diagram illustrating an artificial intelligence load prediction system oriented to an intelligent internet of things platform according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the present invention provides an artificial intelligence load prediction method for an intelligent internet of things platform, the method includes: processing the acquired data to obtain sequence data; constructing a model and performing model training on the sequence data, wherein the model is constructed by adopting a CNN-BilSTM structure; carrying out feature screening on the trained data; and predicting the power load according to the data after the characteristic screening.
The acquired data comprises current time, load, electricity price, temperature and humidity; wherein the temperatures include dew point temperature, dry bulb temperature, and wet bulb temperature.
The processing of the collected data comprises the following steps: sequencing the acquired data according to the sequence of time points to form a data queue; extracting a plurality of data with the length of m from the data queue as feature data; inputting the characteristic data into a BilSTM module to obtain a load predicted value at the next moment; moving the characteristic data forward to form new characteristic data with the same length, and predicting the load predicted value at the next moment again until all data are traversed; the characteristic data forward specifically comprises the following steps: taking data at a second time point in the current characteristic data as a starting point, and taking a plurality of data with the length of m to form new characteristic data; and sorting all the load predicted values to form sequence data in continuous sub-time. As shown in fig. 2, at time t, the small box in the dashed line frame represents input data of one time node, the small box on the right side of the dashed line frame represents output data, the data of the time node represented by the small box in the dashed line frame is used as data in the input prediction small box, and the whole is moved forward by one time node at time t +1 until the whole data is predicted.
As shown in fig. 3, the model training of the sequence data comprises the following steps:
inputting the sequence data into a model, and performing feature extraction on the sequence data through two layers of one-dimensional convolution layers; the step of feature extraction comprises: performing high-dimensional mapping on the sequence data in the one-dimensional convolutional layer; in this embodiment, the number of convolution kernels to be convolutional layers is 64, and the step length is 2;
carrying out dimensionality reduction and filtration on the sequence data subjected to feature extraction through a pooling layer and a Flatten layer; the pooling layer can analyze and reduce the dimension of the original data, so that the over-fitting problem of the model can be effectively relieved, and the extraction efficiency of the data characteristics can be effectively improved;
inputting the sequence data into a BilSTM layer, and performing correlation processing on the sequence data through the BilSTM layer, wherein in the embodiment, the BilSTM layer contains 20 neurons; as shown in fig. 4, the associating process of the sequence data includes the following steps: carrying out recursive feedback on the hidden layer state of the past data and the hidden layer state of the future data in the sequence data; for current data in sequence dataIntrinsic correlation of past and future data; the hidden layer state is formed by combining hidden layer output at the previous moment of forward propagation, hidden state at the previous moment of backward propagation and input at the current moment in the BilSTM layer, and the expression formula of the hidden layer state is as follows:
Figure 87885DEST_PATH_IMAGE029
wherein,
Figure 969253DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
indicating the state of the forward hidden layer,
Figure 590727DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
a backward hidden layer state is represented,
Figure 241151DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
representing the weight of the hidden layer of the forward propagation unit,
Figure 24300DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
representing the weight of the hidden layer of the back propagation unit,
Figure 392964DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
indicating the bias of the hidden layer at the current time,
Figure 552550DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
an input indicative of a current time of day,
Figure 323060DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
representing the hidden layer state at the previous instant of the back propagation,
Figure 277109DEST_PATH_IMAGE030
the hidden layer output at the previous time point representing forward propagation,
Figure 133070DEST_PATH_IMAGE031
the overall hidden state is obtained through front and back bidirectional calculation. In particular, the input at the previous moment
Figure 96347DEST_PATH_IMAGE032
Past the last moment forward hidden state
Figure 455784DEST_PATH_IMAGE033
Or a backward hidden state at the next moment
Figure 111893DEST_PATH_IMAGE034
Output is as
Figure 563472DEST_PATH_IMAGE035
Input of the current time
Figure 353877DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
Past the forward hidden state at the current time
Figure 833400DEST_PATH_IMAGE037
Or a backward hidden state at the current time
Figure 394831DEST_PATH_IMAGE038
Output is as
Figure 959805DEST_PATH_IMAGE039
Input of the next time
Figure 530463DEST_PATH_IMAGE040
Past the next moment forward hidden state
Figure 566290DEST_PATH_IMAGE041
Or a last-time backward hidden state
Figure 564202DEST_PATH_IMAGE042
Output is as
Figure 616472DEST_PATH_IMAGE043
. The associating the sequence data through the BilSTM layer further comprises the following steps: applying an attention mechanism to highlight critical information in sequence data by weight configuration(ii) a Mining data characteristics which depend on more than a preset time in the sequence data; in the embodiment, the preset time can be adjusted according to the actual situation;
the sequence data enters a Dense layer to carry out feature enhancement;
and outputting a model training result.
After the model is built, the effectiveness evaluation of the performance of the model is also carried out; the formula of the effectiveness evaluation is as follows:
Figure 459663DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
Figure 913778DEST_PATH_IMAGE044
(ii) a Wherein,
Figure 817012DEST_PATH_IMAGE045
the root mean square error is expressed and used for measuring the deviation between the observed value and the true value, the value range is [0, + ∞ ],
Figure 356578DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
the mean absolute percentage error is expressed as a percentage error,
Figure 3460DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
=0% represents a perfect model,
Figure 312081DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
the poor model is represented by more than 100 percent,
Figure 386217DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
the smaller the value of (A), the better the accuracy of the prediction model is,
Figure 147499DEST_PATH_IMAGE046
the true value of the i-th sample is represented,
Figure 863651DEST_PATH_IMAGE047
represents the predicted value of the ith sample,
Figure 26779DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
indicating the number of sample points.
The feature screening comprises the following steps: removing irrelevant feature data in the sequence data according to an L1 regularization formula;
the L1 regularization formula is
Figure 6237DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
Wherein,
Figure 520395DEST_PATH_IMAGE048
Figure 774658DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
respectively a training sample and its corresponding label,
Figure 962932DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
in order to be a weight parameter, the weight parameter,
Figure 644449DEST_PATH_IMAGE027
in order to be the objective function, the target function,
Figure 380324DEST_PATH_IMAGE028
in order to be a penalty term,
Figure 438279DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
in order to make the penalty term coefficient,
Figure 310420DEST_PATH_IMAGE025
the objective function after the irrelevant features are removed.
As shown in fig. 5, the present embodiment selects the power data from 2006-2010 in australia as experimental data, wherein the data characteristics include date, time, temperature, electricity price and power load, wherein the temperature includes dry bulb, dew point and humidity. The acquisition frequency was half an hour. The experimental parameters were set as: the time step is 18, the number of nodes of the two-way LSTM memory layer is 128, and it is found through experiments that the loss function is stable when the number of parameters batchsize which are passed to the program for training is 108. Algorithm optimization was performed by adaptive moment estimation Adam and an attention mechanism was applied, where training and test results of the data were fitted. It can be seen from the figure that after more than 9 iterations, the root mean square error of the training set and the test set measures the deviation between the observed value and the true value to be consistent gradually.
As shown in fig. 6, the present invention further provides an artificial intelligence load prediction system for an intelligent internet of things platform, wherein the system includes a data acquisition unit, a model construction unit, a feature screening unit and a prediction unit;
the data acquisition unit is used for acquiring data and processing the acquired data to obtain sequence data; the data acquisition unit is used for processing the acquired data to obtain sequence data and comprises: the data acquisition unit is used for sequencing the acquired data according to the sequence of time points to form a data queue; extracting a plurality of data with the length of m from the data queue as feature data; inputting the characteristic data into a BilSTM module to obtain a load predicted value at the next moment; moving the characteristic data forward to form new characteristic data with the same length, and predicting the load predicted value at the next moment again until all data are traversed; sorting all the load predicted values to form sequence data in continuous sub-time;
the model building unit is used for building a model and carrying out model training on the sequence data; the model construction unit is used for constructing a model and performing model training on the sequence data and comprises the following steps: the model construction unit is used for inputting the sequence data into a model and extracting the characteristics of the sequence data through two layers of one-dimensional convolution layers; carrying out dimensionality reduction and filtration on the sequence data subjected to feature extraction through a pooling layer and a Flatten layer; the model building unit is used for carrying out association processing on the sequence data through the BilSTM layer, and comprises the following steps: the model building unit is used for carrying out recursive feedback on the states of a hidden layer of past data and a hidden layer of future data in the sequence data; correlating internally current data, past data, and future data in the sequence data; the sequence data enters a Dense layer to carry out feature enhancement; outputting a model training result; the model construction unit is used for extracting the characteristics of the sequence data and comprises the following steps: the model building unit is used for carrying out high-dimensional mapping on the sequence data in the one-dimensional convolutional layer;
the characteristic screening unit is used for screening the characteristics of the trained data; wherein, the feature screening unit is used for carrying out feature screening on the trained data and comprises: the characteristic screening unit is used for removing irrelevant characteristic data in the sequence data according to the L1 regularization formula; the L1 regularization formula is
Figure 162838DEST_PATH_IMAGE049
(ii) a Wherein,
Figure 386009DEST_PATH_IMAGE019
Figure 716496DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
respectively a training sample and its corresponding label,
Figure 708723DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
in order to be a weight parameter, the weight parameter,
Figure 732043DEST_PATH_IMAGE050
in order to be the objective function, the target function,
Figure 176930DEST_PATH_IMAGE051
in order to be a penalty term,
Figure 311109DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
in order to make the penalty term coefficient,
Figure 423421DEST_PATH_IMAGE052
the target function after the irrelevant features are removed.
And the prediction unit is used for predicting the power load according to the data after the characteristic screening.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will understand that: although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, modifications may be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims (19)

1. An artificial intelligence load prediction method for an intelligent internet of things platform is characterized by comprising the following steps:
processing the acquired data to obtain sequence data;
constructing a model and carrying out model training on the sequence data;
carrying out feature screening on the trained data;
and predicting the power load according to the data after the characteristic screening.
2. The intelligent load prediction method for intelligent IOT platform as recited in claim 1,
the acquired data comprises current time, load, electricity price, temperature and humidity;
wherein the temperatures include dew point temperature, dry bulb temperature, and wet bulb temperature.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction method for the intelligent IOT platform,
the processing of the acquired data comprises the following steps:
sequencing the acquired data according to the sequence of time points to form a data queue;
extracting a plurality of data with the length of m from the data queue as characteristic data;
inputting the characteristic data into a BilSTM module to obtain a load predicted value at the next moment;
moving the characteristic data forward to form new characteristic data with the same length, and predicting the load predicted value at the next moment again until all data are traversed;
and sorting all the load predicted values to form sequence data in continuous sub-time.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction method for the intelligent IOT platform,
the characteristic data forward specifically comprises the following steps: and taking a plurality of data with the length of m from the data of the second time point in the current characteristic data as a starting point to form new characteristic data.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction method for the intelligent IOT platform,
the model training of the sequence data comprises the following steps:
inputting the sequence data into a model, and performing feature extraction on the sequence data through two layers of one-dimensional convolution layers;
carrying out dimensionality reduction and filtration on the sequence data subjected to feature extraction through a pooling layer and a Flatten layer;
inputting the sequence data into a BilSTM layer, and performing correlation processing on the sequence data through the BilSTM layer;
the sequence data enters a Dense layer to carry out feature enhancement;
and outputting a model training result.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction method for the intelligent IOT platform,
the step of feature extraction comprises: the sequence data is mapped in a one-dimensional convolutional layer in a high-dimensional manner.
7. The method of claim 5, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction method for the intelligent IOT platform,
the correlation processing of the sequence data through the BilSTM layer comprises the following steps:
carrying out recursive feedback on the hidden layer state of the past data and the hidden layer state of the future data in the sequence data;
the current data, past data, and future data in the sequence data are inherently correlated.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction method for the intelligent IOT platform,
the hidden layer state is formed by combining hidden layer output at the previous moment of forward propagation, hidden state at the previous moment of backward propagation and input at the current moment in the BilSTM layer, and the expression formula of the hidden layer state is as follows:
Figure 485699DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
wherein,
Figure 11359DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
indicating the state of the forward hidden layer,
Figure 683648DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
a backward hidden layer state is represented,
Figure 650467DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
representing the weight of the hidden layer of the forward propagation unit,
Figure 750010DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
representing the weight of the hidden layer of the back propagation unit,
Figure 435070DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
indicating the bias of the hidden layer at the current moment,
Figure 911050DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
an input representing the current time of day is presented,
Figure 732376DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
representing the hidden layer state at the previous instant of the back propagation,
Figure 268399DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
the hidden layer output at the previous time point representing forward propagation,
Figure 971913DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
the overall hidden state is obtained through front and back bidirectional calculation.
9. The method of claim 7, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction method for the intelligent IOT platform,
the associating the sequence data through the BilSTM layer further comprises the following steps:
applying an attention mechanism to highlight key information in the sequence data by weight configuration;
data characteristics dependent for more than a predetermined time are mined from the sequence data.
10. The method of claim 1, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction method for the intelligent IOT platform,
and after the model is built, the effectiveness evaluation of the performance of the model is also carried out.
11. The method of claim 10, wherein the load prediction model of the intelligent IOT platform,
the formula of the effectiveness evaluation is as follows:
Figure 861372DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
Figure 927417DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
wherein,
Figure 572025DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
the root mean square error is represented as a function of,
Figure 762835DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
the mean absolute percentage error is expressed as a percentage error,
Figure 455984DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
the true value of the i-th sample is represented,
Figure 376536DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
represents the predicted value of the ith sample,
Figure 129728DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
indicating the number of sample points.
12. The method of claim 1, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction method for the intelligent IOT platform,
the feature screening comprises the following steps: removing irrelevant feature data in the sequence data according to an L1 regularization formula;
the L1 regularization formula is
Figure 338992DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
Wherein,
Figure 366991DEST_PATH_IMAGE019
Figure 142049DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
respectively a training sample and its corresponding label,
Figure 66143DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
in order to be a weight parameter, the weight parameter,
Figure 559441DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
in order to be the objective function, the target function,
Figure 594393DEST_PATH_IMAGE023
in order to be a penalty term,
Figure 427220DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
in order to make the penalty term coefficient,
Figure 646849DEST_PATH_IMAGE025
the target function after the irrelevant features are removed.
13. An artificial intelligence load prediction system for an intelligent Internet of things platform is characterized by comprising a data acquisition unit, a model construction unit, a feature screening unit and a prediction unit;
the data acquisition unit is used for processing the acquired data to obtain sequence data;
the model building unit is used for building a model and carrying out model training on the sequence data;
the characteristic screening unit is used for screening the characteristics of the trained data;
and the prediction unit is used for predicting the power load according to the data after the characteristic screening.
14. The system of claim 13, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction system for the intelligent IOT platform,
the data acquisition unit is used for processing the acquired data to obtain sequence data and comprises:
the data acquisition unit is used for sequencing the acquired data according to the sequence of time points to form a data queue;
extracting a plurality of data with the length of m from the data queue as feature data;
inputting the characteristic data into a BilSTM module to obtain a load predicted value at the next moment;
moving the characteristic data forward to form new characteristic data with the same length, and predicting the load predicted value at the next moment again until all data are traversed;
and sorting all the load predicted values to form sequence data in continuous sub-time.
15. The system of claim 13, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction system for the intelligent IOT platform,
the model building unit is used for building a model and carrying out model training on the sequence data and comprises the following steps:
the model building unit is used for inputting the sequence data into a model and extracting the characteristics of the sequence data through two layers of one-dimensional convolutional layers;
carrying out dimensionality reduction and filtration on the sequence data subjected to feature extraction through a pooling layer and a Flatten layer;
inputting the sequence data into a BilSTM layer, and performing correlation processing on the sequence data through the BilSTM layer;
entering sequence data into a Dense layer for feature enhancement;
and outputting a model training result.
16. The system of claim 15, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction system for the intelligent IOT platform,
the model construction unit is used for extracting the characteristics of the sequence data and comprises the following steps:
the model building unit is used for performing high-dimensional mapping on the sequence data in the one-dimensional convolutional layer.
17. The system of claim 15, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction system for the intelligent IOT platform,
the model building unit is used for performing correlation processing on the sequence data through a BilSTM layer and comprises the following steps:
the model building unit is used for carrying out recursive feedback on the states of a hidden layer of past data and a hidden layer of future data in the sequence data;
the current data, past data, and future data in the sequence data are inherently correlated.
18. The system of claim 13, wherein the load prediction system comprises a plurality of load prediction units,
the feature screening unit is used for performing feature screening on the trained data and comprises the following steps:
and the characteristic screening unit is used for removing irrelevant characteristic data in the sequence data according to the L1 regularization formula.
19. The system of claim 18, wherein the artificial intelligence load prediction system for the intelligent IOT platform,
the L1 regularization formula is
Figure 502809DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
Wherein,
Figure 872611DEST_PATH_IMAGE026
Figure 622261DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
respectively a training sample and its corresponding label,
Figure 216053DEST_PATH_IMAGE027
in order to be a weight parameter, the weight parameter,
Figure 293731DEST_PATH_IMAGE028
in order to be the objective function, the target function,
Figure 732802DEST_PATH_IMAGE029
in order to be a penalty term,
Figure 336959DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
in order to make the penalty term coefficient,
Figure 773757DEST_PATH_IMAGE030
the target function after the irrelevant features are removed.
CN202211512758.4A 2022-11-30 2022-11-30 Artificial intelligence load prediction method and system for intelligent Internet of things platform Pending CN115545354A (en)

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CN112529283A (en) * 2020-12-04 2021-03-19 天津天大求实电力新技术股份有限公司 Comprehensive energy system short-term load prediction method based on attention mechanism
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