CN115510631A - Flood process line design method and system considering multi-time flood forms - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a flood process line design method and a flood process line design system considering multi-field flood forms, wherein daily runoff data of hydrological stations in a research area are collected and subjected to annual maximum sampling, design flood of a specific recurrence period of the research station is calculated, an annual maximum flood process matrix Q is obtained and subjected to singular value decomposition, and a flood form normal form set U and a normal form coefficient set phi are obtained; calculating the form deviation rate of the flood process and the first main paradigm coefficient in each year, and selecting a typical flood process year according to the minimum principle of the form deviation rate, thereby determining the flood peak position and the flood form trend of the designed flood process line; selecting a main form normal form with the annual maximum flood form contribution rate exceeding a threshold value K for reconstruction; and finally, scaling the process line reconstruction result according to the design flood value in the same-time ratio to obtain a design flood process line of the research area. The invention considers flood shapes of different years, overcomes the defect of subjectively selecting typical years in the traditional method, and provides a new idea for calculating the design flood process line.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of flood control safety design of hydraulic engineering, relates to a method and a system for designing a flood process line, and particularly relates to a method and a system for designing a flood process line by comprehensively considering multi-field flood forms.
Background
The design flood refers to the flood of various design standards appointed in the planning, design and construction processes of the hydraulic and hydroelectric engineering, and the calculation of the design flood of the engineering mainly comprises the research steps of frequency line type selection, parameter estimation, calculation of a design flood process line and the like. The design flood process line reflects the process that the design flood flow changes along with time, and comprises the main factors of the flood process line such as the peak flood flow, the total primary flood amount, the rising duration, the water withdrawal duration, the peak shape and the like, and reflects the whole process from rising to withdrawing of the primary flood.
China' flood calculation Specification for design of water conservancy and hydropower engineering: SL44-2006 recommends the same-time ratio method and the same-frequency method to calculate and design the flood process line. The same-time ratio method adopts a design flood peak in a specific recurrence period or a design flood volume in a specific time period to amplify a typical annual flood process line; and (3) carrying out sectional amplification on the typical annual flood process line by the same frequency method according to the design flood peak in a specific recurrence period and the design flood volume in a specific time period, and manually smoothing. The two methods are simple and intuitive, but the flood process of a certain year can only be singly selected as a typical process, other flood shapes of different years cannot be comprehensively considered, and the result has certain subjectivity and uncertainty. In addition, due to the influence of the changing environment, the convergence mechanism of the flow fields is changed, and the influence of the changing environment cannot be considered by the same-time-ratio method and the same-frequency method. Therefore, there is a need for an objective and reasonable method for designing flood process lines, which can comprehensively consider flood form information of multiple times.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a method and a system for designing a flood process line by considering the forms of multiple flood fields, which fully consider the flood characteristics and the typical annual difference of a designed basin in a changing environment and overcome the defect that the existing method is not objective and reasonable.
The method adopts the technical scheme that: a flood process line design method considering multi-field flood forms comprises the following steps:
step 1: collecting daily runoff data of a hydrological station in a research area to carry out annual maximum sampling, calculating a design flood value of a specific recurrence period of the research station, and obtaining an annual maximum flood process matrix Q;
wherein k represents year, d represents days, m represents total years of the sampled data, and n represents total days of the annual maximum flood process; q (k, d) represents the flow rate at the d moment after the annual average value is reduced; v (k, d) represents the flow rate at time d of k years,
represents the average flow rate of the maximum flood process in the kth year;
step 2: performing singular value decomposition on the annual maximum flood process matrix Q of the hydrological station:
Q＝UΣΦ T ；
in the formula, U is a form normal matrix of the annual maximum flood process line, sigma is a model form contribution value diagonal matrix, and phi is a coefficient matrix corresponding to the form model; λ = diag (Σ), λ 1 ≥λ 2 ≥...≥λ n Not less than 0; λ is each paradigm form contribution; the morphological contribution rate of the ith paradigm is:
pattern type form contribution rate E i The influence degree of the paradigm on the flood morphology of the research station is shown, and the main morphology paradigm is a paradigm that the morphology contribution rate is greater than a preset value; the first main form paradigm is the form paradigm with the largest contribution rate;
and step 3: calculating form deviation rates of flood processes and first main paradigm coefficients of all the years, and selecting a flood process which is most similar to the paradigm coefficient form of the first main form paradigm according to the principle that the form deviation rates are minimum, so as to determine flood peak positions and a flood form change trend of a designed flood process line;
deviation ratio R of k year k The calculation formula of (c) is as follows:
where b (d) is the coefficient of the first principal paradigm,
is the mean of the coefficients of the first principal paradigm;
and 4, step 4: and (3) selecting a main morphological normal form with the annual maximum flood contribution rate exceeding a threshold value K from the morphological normal forms obtained in the step (2) to carry out process line reconstruction according to the flood process determined in the step (3), wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula [ theta ] i (k) The ith main form model value is obtained, Q' (k, d) is a reconstructed flood process set, and r represents the number of main models;
and 5: and (4) carrying out equal-time scaling on the process line reconstruction result obtained in the step (4) according to the design flood value obtained in the step (1) to obtain a design flood process line of the research area.
The technical scheme adopted by the system of the invention is as follows: a flood process line design system considering multi-stage flood forms comprises the following modules:
the data collection module is used for collecting daily runoff data of a hydrological station in a research area, carrying out annual maximum sampling, calculating a design flood value of a specific recurrence period of the research station and obtaining an annual maximum flood process matrix Q;
wherein k represents year, d represents days, m represents total years of the sampled data, and n represents total days of the annual maximum flood process; q (k, d) represents the flow rate at the d moment after the annual average value is reduced; v (k, d) represents the flow rate at time d of k years,
represents the average flow of the maximum flooding process in the k year;
a runoff decomposition module for performing singular value decomposition on the annual maximum flood process matrix Q of the hydrological station:
Q＝UΣΦ T ；
in the formula, U is a form normal matrix of the annual maximum flood process line, sigma is a model form contribution value diagonal matrix, and phi is a coefficient matrix corresponding to the form model; λ = diag (Σ), λ 1 ≥λ 2 ≥...≥λ n Not less than 0; λ is each paradigm contribution; the morphological contribution rate of the ith paradigm is:
pattern type form contribution rate E i The influence degree of the normal form on the flood form of the research station is shown, and the main form normal form is the normal form with the form contribution rate larger than a preset value; the first main form paradigm is the form paradigm with the largest contribution rate;
the deviation rate calculation module is used for calculating the form deviation rate of the flood process and the first main paradigm coefficient of each year, and selecting the flood process which is most similar to the paradigm coefficient form of the first main form paradigm according to the principle that the form deviation rate is minimum, so that the flood peak position and the flood form change trend of the designed flood process line are determined;
deviation ratio R of kth year k The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
where b (d) is the coefficient of the first main paradigm,
is the mean of the coefficients of the first principal paradigm;
the flood reconstruction module is used for selecting a main morphological normal form with the annual maximum flood contribution rate exceeding a threshold value K from the morphological normal forms obtained by the runoff decomposition module and reconstructing a process line according to the flood process determined by the deviation rate calculation module, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula [ theta ] i (k) The ith main form model value is obtained, Q' (k, d) is a reconstructed flood process set, and r represents the number of main models;
and the designed flood process line acquisition module is used for carrying out scaling on the process line reconstruction results obtained by the flood reconstruction module according to the designed flood value of the data collection module by the same time ratio to obtain a designed flood process line of the research area.
According to the method, the main normal form reflecting the flood process and the time coefficient corresponding to the normal form are extracted through singular value decomposition, typical flood is selected according to the flood peak position and the change trend of the flood form reflected by the time coefficient corresponding to the first main form normal form, and the flood process line under different reproduction periods is calculated. The invention can comprehensively consider flood shapes of different years, overcomes the defect that the traditional method needs to subjectively select the typical annual flood process, can obtain more objective and reasonable calculation results, and provides a new idea for designing the calculation of the flood process line.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a diagram of the proportion of the contribution of the normal form after singular value decomposition performed by applying the present invention to a certain reservoir in the embodiment of the present invention, and the sum of the contribution of the first 6 main form normal forms exceeds 60%;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of a first main form of a reservoir according to an embodiment of the present invention after singular value decomposition;
FIG. 4 is a time variation coefficient diagram of a first main form normal form after singular value decomposition of a reservoir according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a comparison graph of the flood process line and the result of the same-magnification ratio method, which are obtained by applying the method of the present invention to a certain reservoir as an example in the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to facilitate understanding and implementation of the present invention for persons of ordinary skill in the art, the present invention is further described in detail with reference to the drawings and examples, it is to be understood that the implementation examples described herein are only for illustration and explanation of the present invention and are not to be construed as limiting the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a flood process line design method considering a plurality of flood patterns provided by the present invention includes the following steps:
step 1: collecting daily runoff data of a hydrological station in a research area to carry out annual maximum sampling, calculating a design flood value of a specific recurrence period of the research station, and obtaining an annual maximum flood process matrix Q;
in the embodiment, a certain reservoir at the upstream of the Yangtze river is taken as a research object, long-series daily runoff data of a representative hydrological station of the reservoir are collected, and a maximum annual 30-day flood process of each year is obtained by sampling by a maximum annual method:
wherein k represents year, d represents days, m represents total years of sampled data, n represents total days of maximum flood in year, and q (k, d) represents flow rate at time d after the average of the years is subtracted; v (k, d) represents the flow rate at time d of k yearsThe size of the capsule is determined by the size of the capsule,
represents the average flow of the maximum flooding process in the k year;
the present embodiment may use a P-III distribution, a generalized pareto distribution, or a lognormal distribution to estimate the design flood value for a particular recurring period of the hydrological station.
The embodiment can adopt the annual maximum method to sample flood and can also adopt an overdetermined sampling method according to the actual data length.
The flood collection Q of the present embodiment is composed of historical multi-year flood processes; and (3) performing hypothesis test on the Q by adopting a Mann-Kendall method, if the flood data sequence has obvious variation points, considering the actual requirement of the influence of the variation environment, and selecting the sampling sequence as a long-term actual measurement sequence or an actual measurement sequence after variation according to the actual requirement.
And 2, step: singular value decomposition is carried out on the annual maximum flood process line matrix Q of the hydrological station to obtain a main norm (figures 2-3) of the annual maximum flood process and a corresponding coefficient (figure 4) thereof;
Q＝UΣΦ T ；
in the formula, U is a form normal form matrix of annual maximum flood process line, and Σ is a form normal form contribution ratio diagonal matrix, Φ T The coefficient matrix is corresponding to the form model; λ = diag (Σ), λ 1 ≥λ 2 ≥...≥λ n Not less than 0; λ is the contribution of each paradigm; the morphological contribution rate of the ith paradigm is:
morphological contribution of paradigm (E) i ) The influence degree of the paradigm on the flood morphology of the research station is shown, and the main morphology paradigm is a paradigm that the morphology contribution rate is greater than a preset value; the first main form paradigm is the form paradigm with the largest contribution rate;
and step 3: calculating form deviation rates of flood processes of all the years and the first main form normal form coefficient, and selecting the flood process which is most similar to the form of the first main form normal form coefficient according to the principle that the form deviation rates are minimum, so as to determine flood peak positions and flood form change trends of the designed flood process line;
deviation ratio R of kth year k The calculation formula of (c) is as follows:
where b (d) is the coefficient of the first main paradigm,
is the coefficient mean of the first principal paradigm;
and 4, step 4: according to the morphological paradigm obtained in step 2, selecting a main morphological paradigm (fig. 2) having the annual maximum flood contribution rate exceeding a threshold K (in this embodiment, the threshold K is greater than or equal to 60%, and may be set to 60%, 80%, or 90%) to perform process line reconstruction according to the flood process determined in step 3, and the calculation formula is:
in the formula [ theta ] i (k) For the ith dominant morphology model value, Q' (k, d) is the set of flood processes after reconstruction; the sum of the contribution rates of the first 6 main normal forms in the present case exceeds 60%, r is the number of the selected reconstructed normal forms 6, theta i (k) Is the ith main paradigm.
And 5: in this embodiment, the recurrence period is set to be a thousand-year-first encounter, and the reconstruction result obtained in step 4 is amplified according to the design flood peak flow rate in step 1 to obtain a thousand-year-first encounter design flood process line of the reservoir (fig. 5).
As can be seen from fig. 5, the designed flood process line obtained by the site in thousands of years by using the method is substantially similar to the result obtained by the traditional copple comparison method, but the method is based on the statistical theory, the result is more objective and reasonable, and the calculated main peak form of the flood process is more unfavorable for flood control, so that the method has a more referential significance for flood control safety. The flood process shape of the single flood peak is consistent with the coefficient shape of the first main paradigm in fig. 4.
It should be understood that the above description of the preferred embodiments is given for clarity and not for any purpose of limitation, and that various changes, substitutions and alterations can be made herein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (6)
1. A flood process line design method considering multi-field secondary flood forms is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: collecting daily runoff data of a hydrological station in a research area to carry out annual maximum sampling, calculating a design flood value of a specific recurrence period of the research station, and obtaining an annual maximum flood process matrix Q;
wherein k represents year, d represents days, m is total years of sampled data, and n is total days of maximum flood process per year; q (k, d) represents the flow rate at the d moment after the annual average value is reduced; v (k, d) represents the flow rate at time d of k years,
represents the average flow of the maximum flooding process in the k year;
step 2: performing singular value decomposition on the annual maximum flood process matrix Q of the hydrological station:
Q＝UΣΦ T ；
in the formula, U is the maximum annual floodThe form normal form matrix of the route line, wherein sigma is a normal form contribution value diagonal matrix, and phi is a coefficient matrix corresponding to the form normal form; λ = diag (Σ), λ 1 ≥λ 2 ≥...≥λ n Not less than 0; λ is each paradigm form contribution; the morphological contribution rate of the ith paradigm is:
pattern type form contribution rate E i The influence degree of the paradigm on the flood morphology of the research station is shown, and the main morphology paradigm is a paradigm that the morphology contribution rate is greater than a preset value; the first main form paradigm is the form paradigm with the largest contribution rate;
and 3, step 3: calculating form deviation rates of flood processes and first main paradigm coefficients of all the years, and selecting a flood process which is most similar to the paradigm coefficient form of the first main form paradigm according to the principle that the form deviation rates are minimum, so as to determine flood peak positions and a flood form change trend of a designed flood process line;
deviation ratio R of k year k The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
where b (d) is the coefficient of the first principal paradigm,
is the coefficient mean of the first principal paradigm;
and 4, step 4: selecting a main form normal form with the annual maximum flood contribution rate exceeding a threshold value K from the form normal forms obtained in the step 2, and carrying out process line reconstruction according to the flood process determined in the step 3, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula [ theta ] i (k) The ith main form model value is obtained, Q' (k, d) is a reconstructed flood process set, and r represents the number of main models;
and 5: and (4) carrying out equal-time scaling on the process line reconstruction result obtained in the step (4) according to the design flood value obtained in the step (1) to obtain a design flood process line of the research area.
2. A flood process line design method according to claim 1, wherein: in the step 1, the design flood value of the specific recurrence period of the hydrological station is calculated by adopting P-III distribution, generalized pareto distribution or lognormal distribution.
3. A flood process line design method according to claim 1, wherein: in the step 1, a maximum annual method is adopted for flood sampling, or an over-quantitative sampling method is adopted according to the length of actual data.
4. A flood process line design method considering multiple flood patterns according to claim 1, wherein: in the step 1, a flood set Q consists of historical multi-year flood processes; and (3) performing hypothesis test on the Q by adopting a Mann-Kendall method, if the flood data sequence has obvious variation points, considering the actual requirement of the influence of the variation environment, and selecting the sampling sequence as a long-term actual measurement sequence or an actual measurement sequence after variation according to the actual requirement.
5. A flood process line design method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein: in step 4, the threshold K is equal to or greater than 60%.
6. A flood process line design system considering multi-field flood forms is characterized by comprising the following modules:
the data collection module is used for collecting daily runoff data of a hydrological station in a research area, carrying out annual maximum sampling, calculating a design flood value of a specific recurrence period of the research station and obtaining an annual maximum flood process matrix Q;
wherein k represents year, d represents days, m is total years of sampled data, and n is total days of maximum flood process per year; q (k, d) represents the flow rate at the d moment after the annual average value is reduced; v (k, d) represents the flow rate at time d of k years,
represents the average flow of the maximum flooding process in the k year;
a runoff decomposition module for performing singular value decomposition on the annual maximum flood process matrix Q of the hydrological station:
Q＝UΣΦ T ；
in the formula, U is a form normal matrix of the annual maximum flood process line, sigma is a model form contribution value diagonal matrix, and phi is a coefficient matrix corresponding to the form model; λ = diag (Σ), λ 1 ≥λ 2 ≥...≥λ n Not less than 0; λ is each paradigm contribution; the morphological contribution rate of the ith paradigm is:
morphological contribution rate E of paradigm i The influence degree of the normal form on the flood form of the research station is shown, and the main form normal form is the normal form with the form contribution rate larger than a preset value; the first main form paradigm is the form paradigm with the largest contribution rate;
the deviation rate calculation module is used for calculating the form deviation rate of the flood process and the first main paradigm coefficient of each year, and selecting the flood process which is most similar to the paradigm coefficient form of the first main form paradigm according to the principle that the form deviation rate is minimum, so that the flood peak position and the flood form change trend of the designed flood process line are determined;
deviation ratio R of k year k The calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
where b (d) is the coefficient of the first principal paradigm,
is the mean of the coefficients of the first principal paradigm;
the flood reconstruction module is used for selecting a main morphological normal form with the annual maximum flood contribution rate exceeding a threshold value K from the morphological normal forms obtained by the runoff decomposition module and reconstructing a process line according to the flood process determined by the deviation rate calculation module, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula [ theta ] i (k) The ith main form model value, Q' (k, d) is a reconstructed flood process set, and r represents the number of main models;
and the design flood process line acquisition module is used for carrying out equal-time scaling on the process line reconstruction result obtained by the flood reconstruction module according to the design flood value of the data collection module to obtain the design flood process line of the research area.
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