CN115424426A - Method for improving accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting - Google Patents
Method for improving accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of geological disaster monitoring, and relates to a method for improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of geological disaster monitoring, relates to regional geological disaster early warning, and particularly relates to a method for improving regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting accuracy.
Background
The development of geological disaster meteorological early warning on a regional scale is one of important ways for effectively preventing geological disasters induced by heavy rainfall. The geological disaster weather early warning is based on the geological disaster sensitivity evaluation based on geological environment conditions, carries out prediction and forecast on the risk of geological disasters caused by weather factors such as rainfall in the early process, forecast rainfall and the like, has wide coverage and long lead time, and can predict the possible occurrence time and position of the geological disasters. According to the forecasting method, geological disaster and weather early warning is divided into blue early warning, yellow early warning, orange early warning and red early warning according to the forecasting risk from low to high, corresponding defense measures such as strengthening monitoring, avoiding risk transfer and the like are taken according to early warning information, and casualties and property loss caused by mass-occurrence geological disasters induced by rainfall can be effectively reduced.
In recent years, geological disaster monitoring and early warning such as professional monitoring and early warning, group-specific combination monitoring and early warning and the like for geological disaster hidden danger points are developed all over the country, the deformation evolution trend of geological bodies at monitoring points can be monitored in real time, and early warning can be given out in time. The main monitoring contents of the debris flow include formation condition monitoring, motion characteristic monitoring and fluid characteristic monitoring. And finally, issuing disaster early warning of the hidden danger points according to the monitoring data, wherein the early warning levels comprise an attention level (blue), a warning level (yellow), a warning level (orange) and an alarm level (red).
At present, the accuracy of regional scale early warning and forecasting is improved by improving the data precision of geological disaster meteorological early warning, such as improving the precision of a geological disaster sensitivity layer, improving the precision of rainfall data, strengthening gradual refinement of meetings and the like. The trigger factor of the geological disaster meteorological early warning model is rainfall, the process from rainfall infiltration to disaster causing is very complicated, and uncertainty still exists, so that the effect of improving the accuracy of geological disaster meteorological early warning forecast by improving the data precision is limited. And the monitoring and early warning directly monitors the geologic body, so that the evolution trend of the geologic body can be more conveniently and accurately mastered in real time, and the deformation and damage stage of the geologic body can be quantified according to the monitoring and early warning level issued by monitoring data. However, since geological disasters are sporadic and independent, the monitoring and early warning result of a single geological body cannot reflect the deformation and damage degrees of other geological bodies, how to combine the geological disaster monitoring and early warning of monitoring points with the geological disaster meteorological early warning of regional scales to realize point-to-surface combination is an urgent problem to be solved for improving the accuracy of the regional scale geological disaster meteorological early warning forecast.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the limitations of the prior art, provides a method for improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting, and improves the accuracy of regional geological disaster meteorological early warning and forecasting in a point feedback surface mode.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
the method for improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting combines monitoring early warning carried out by geological disaster monitoring points with geological disaster meteorological early warning carried out by regional scales, and integrates monitoring early warning results of ' geological disaster monitoring early warning points ' with the same deformation evolution trend in a small range to feed back regional geological disaster meteorological early warning results by screening monitoring early warning concerned points in concerned time periods and determining local early warning adjustment regions, so that a ' point ' feedback ' surface is realized, and the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning meteorological forecasting is improved.
Further, the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s1, generating an early warning area according to geological disaster weather early warning data of a regional scale, determining early warning precision of the early warning area, and defining an attention time period;
s2, screening monitoring early warning attention points in an early warning area in the attention time period;
s3, determining a local early warning adjusting area according to the distribution of the monitoring early warning concern points;
and S4, determining the early warning grade of the local early warning adjusting area.
Further, the method for defining the period of interest in S1 is as follows:
for geological disaster weather early warning for 24 hours in the future, defining 6 hours before the early warning starting time period as an attention time period;
for geological disaster weather early warning for 48 hours in the future, defining 12 hours before the early warning starting time period as an attention time period;
for geological disaster weather forecast 72-168 hours in the future, 24 hours before the early warning starting time period is the concerned time period.
Further, the screening method for monitoring and early warning concern in S2 is as follows:
screening according to the screening condition 1, which specifically comprises the following steps: screening monitoring and early warning levels which are improved by more than 2 levels in the attention time period, and using the monitoring points which are checked to be correct as monitoring and early warning attention points;
or, screening according to the screening condition 2, specifically: and screening monitoring and early warning levels which are attention levels or warning levels before the attention period begins, actually sending a disaster in the attention period, and checking and confirming by professional technicians that the main induction factor is rainfall to serve as monitoring and early warning attention points.
Further, the step S3 of determining a local early warning adjustment area according to the distribution of the monitoring early warning attention points includes:
s3.1, performing drainage basin division on each early warning area to form early warning partitions, wherein the specific division method comprises the following steps: dividing a national-level and provincial-level geological disaster weather early warning area or an early warning area with the early warning precision of 1 ten thousand-1; dividing urban and county geological disaster meteorological early warning areas or early warning areas with early warning accuracy of more than 1 ten thousand by using micro watershed or small watershed subunits;
s3.2, determining a local early warning adjustment area, wherein the specific method comprises the following steps:
if more than 3 monitoring early warning attention points exist in the same early warning subarea in the attention time period, the early warning subarea is integrally used as a local early warning adjusting area;
or if the number of the monitoring and early warning attention points in the same early warning partition in the attention time period is less than 3, when the early warning partition and all the monitoring and early warning attention points in the early warning partition adjacent to the early warning partition in the same early warning partition are not on the same straight line and the total number is more than 4, if the intervals of all the monitoring and early warning attention points are less than 200km, all the monitoring and early warning attention points are sequentially connected to form a closed graph with the largest area, and the area defined by the closed graph is used as a local early warning adjusting area. Specifically, landslide and collapse disaster hidden dangers are formed by connecting the positions of all monitoring points according to the positions of the monitoring points and the positions of the debris flow monitoring points according to the head and the tail of a potential debris flow channel to form the maximum communication area.
Further, the S4 specifically includes:
s4.1, unifying the regional scale geological disaster meteorological early warning level and the monitoring early warning level of a geological disaster monitoring point, unifying red early warning (warning level) into I level, orange early warning (warning level) into II level, yellow early warning (warning level) into III level, blue early warning (attention level) into IV level, unifying early warning areas where meteorological early warning is not issued into IV level, and unifying monitoring points which have actually suffered a disaster in a concerned time period into I level;
s4.2, determining the early warning levels of the local early warning adjusting regions one by one according to the early warning levels of the early warning subareas and the early warning levels of the monitoring early warning concern points, wherein the early warning levels of the local early warning adjusting regions are obtained by calculation according to the following formula (1):
t 'in the formula (1)' i The early warning grade of the ith local early warning adjustment area; t is j The weather early warning grade of the jth early warning subarea where the ith local early warning adjusting area is located; t is t k Monitoring and early warning for the kth monitoring and early warning concern in the ith local early warning adjustment area and the likeStage (2); n is the number of monitoring early warning concern points in the jth early warning partition; i is the number of the local early warning adjustment area; j is the number of the early warning subarea where the local early warning adjusting area is located; k is the number of monitoring and early warning concern points in the local early warning adjustment area; a. b is a weight coefficient, and is determined according to the early warning precision and the monitoring early warning type of the early warning area;
s4.3, if the number of monitoring and early warning attention points in the local early warning adjustment area exceeds 10 and no less than 5 monitoring and early warning attention points confirm that the early warning level is red early warning or the monitoring points are actually damaged in the attention time period, communicating the monitoring and early warning attention points with the early warning level of red early warning with the monitoring points which are damaged, forming a closed area, if the closed area does not contain the monitoring and early warning attention points with orange early warning, dividing the communicated area in the local adjustment area into a second-level local early warning adjustment area, wherein the early warning level of the second-level local early warning adjustment area is determined according to the formula (2),
T″ i ＝T′ i -1 (2)
in formula (2), T ″) i Is the early warning grade, T 'of a secondary local early warning regulation area in the ith local early warning regulation area' i The early warning grade of the ith local early warning adjustment area;
and S4.4, updating the early warning levels of the local early warning adjusting area and the second-stage local early warning adjusting area according to the calculation results of S4.2 and S4.3, and regenerating a regional scale geological disaster meteorological early warning result.
Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme provided by the invention has the following beneficial effects: aiming at the regularity of the inoculation development of the geological disaster induced by rainfall, the method monitors the rapid change of the early warning level through the monitoring points in a short period of early warning period, quantifies the deformation evolution trend of the slope rock-soil body, corrects the regional geological disaster meteorological early warning result, and makes up the defect of large difference of disaster degrees of different regions under the action of rainfall through point feedback surface, thereby being beneficial to improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster meteorological early warning and forecast and better serving the geological disaster prevention and reduction.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the invention and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention.
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments or technical solutions in the prior art of the present invention, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings without inventive labor.
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a drainage basin partitioning of an early warning area to form an early warning partition according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a local pre-warning adjustment zone provided by the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of a regional geological disaster weather early warning result in a certain research area in example 1;
FIG. 4 is a distribution diagram of monitoring and early warning points of interest in example 1;
fig. 5 is a diagram of early warning partitions formed by zoning an early warning area in a drainage basin in embodiment 1;
FIG. 6 is a local pre-warning adjustment zone distribution map determined in example 1;
FIG. 7 is a distribution diagram of the secondary warning adjustment region determined in example 1;
fig. 8 is a warning level distribution diagram of a local warning adjustment region finally determined in embodiment 1;
FIG. 9 is a diagram of the regional geological disaster weather early warning results in a certain research area in example 2;
FIG. 10 is a distribution diagram of monitoring and early warning points of interest in example 2;
fig. 11 is an early warning partition diagram formed by performing watershed partition on an early warning area in embodiment 2;
FIG. 12 is a local pre-warning adjustment region distribution map determined in example 2;
fig. 13 is a warning level distribution diagram of a local warning adjustment region finally determined in embodiment 2;
fig. 14 is a flowchart of a method for improving accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting provided by the invention.
Detailed Description
The exemplary embodiments will be described herein in detail, and the embodiments described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all embodiments consistent with the present invention. Rather, they are merely examples of methods consistent with certain aspects of the invention, as detailed in the appended claims.
In order to make those skilled in the art better understand the technical solution of the present invention, the following detailed description of the present invention is provided with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
Example 1
The embodiment provides a method for improving accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting, which is shown in fig. 14 and specifically comprises the following steps:
s1, selecting a certain research area, acquiring data such as geological environment conditions, live rainfall, rainfall forecast and the like of the research area, and generating geological disaster meteorological early warning results of the area 24 hours in the future through calculation of a geological disaster meteorological early warning model and consultation correction, wherein the three early warning areas are total; wherein, the early warning area 2 is a yellow early warning area, the early warning area 3 is an orange early warning area, and the rest areas are blue early warning areas (the early warning areas 1), which are shown in fig. 3; determining the precision of the regional scale geological disaster weather early warning to be 1; meanwhile, an attention time interval is defined, and the early warning aging is 24 hours in the future, so that the attention time interval is determined within 6 hours before the early warning starting time interval.
S2, screening monitoring and early warning attention points of the early warning area in the attention time period, and combining the graph 4, wherein the number of the screened monitoring and early warning attention points is 23; wherein the content of the first and second substances,
5 geological disaster monitoring points are arranged in the range of the early warning area 1, and after screening, the monitoring early warning levels of 4 monitoring points are improved by more than 2 levels in an attention time period (6 hours before the early warning starting time period) and are checked and confirmed by professional technicians, namely 4 monitoring early warning attention points are arranged in the early warning area 1;
16 geological disaster monitoring points are arranged in the range of the early warning area 2, and after screening, the monitoring early warning grade of 12 monitoring points in the attention time period (6 hours before the early warning starting time period) is improved by more than 2 grades and is checked and confirmed to be correct by professional technicians, the monitoring early warning grade of 2 monitoring points before the early warning time period is the attention grade, the actual disaster in the attention time period is sent and is checked to be correct by the professional technicians, and therefore 14 monitoring early warning attention points are arranged in the early warning area 2;
8 geological disaster monitoring points are arranged in the early warning area 3, wherein the monitoring early warning levels of 4 monitoring points are improved by more than 2 levels in the attention time period (6 hours before the early warning starting time period) and are verified to be correct, the monitoring early warning levels of 1 monitoring point are the warning levels before the early warning time period is started, the disaster is actually sent in the attention time period, and the main induction factor is rainfall through the verification of professional technicians, so that 5 monitoring early warning attention points are arranged in the early warning area 3.
S3, determining a local early warning adjustment area according to the distribution of the monitoring early warning attention points, and specifically comprising the following steps:
s3.1, performing drainage basin division on each early warning area to form early warning subareas (a schematic diagram is shown in figure 1), wherein the specific division method comprises the following steps: dividing a national-level and provincial-level geological disaster meteorological early warning area or an early warning area with the early warning precision of 1-100-1; dividing urban and county geological disaster meteorological early warning areas or early warning areas with early warning accuracy of more than 1 ten thousand by using micro watershed or small watershed subunits; the geological disaster and weather early warning precision of the early warning area is 1 ten thousand, and the early warning subareas are divided by small watersheds to form 15 early warning subareas, which is shown in fig. 5;
s3.2, determining a local early warning adjustment area, wherein a schematic diagram of the local early warning adjustment area is shown in FIG. 2, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
as shown in fig. 4 and 5, if more than 3 monitoring and early warning attention points are located in the early warning partitions 1-3, 2-1 and 3-1, the three early warning partitions are used as local early warning adjustment areas as a whole; only 1 monitoring early warning concern point exists in an early warning partition 2-3 in the early warning partition 2, only 2 monitoring early warning concern points exist in an early warning partition 2-4, the number of the monitoring early warning concern points is less than 3, the total number of the monitoring early warning concern points in the early warning partition 2-3 and the early warning partition 2-4 is 3, and a local early warning adjusting area is not formed when the screening condition is not met; only 1 monitoring early warning concern point is arranged in the early warning subarea 3-2 in the early warning area 3, the number of the monitoring early warning concern points is less than 3, no other early warning subareas with less than 3 monitoring early warning concern points are arranged in the early warning area 3, and no local early warning adjusting area is formed when the screening condition is not met. The distribution of the determined local pre-warning adjustment zones is shown in fig. 6.
S4, determining the early warning grade of the local early warning adjustment area:
s4.1, unifying early warning levels of early warning partitions, monitoring early warning levels of early warning focus points, substituting the early warning levels into formula (1), determining weight coefficients as a =0.5 and b =0.5 according to early warning precision, calculating and determining early warning levels of local early warning adjusting areas one by one, and obtaining results shown in table 1:
table 1 example 1 early warning grade adjustment table of local early warning adjustment area
And S4.2, 11 monitoring and early warning attention points are arranged in the local early warning adjusting area corresponding to the early warning partition 2-1, the number of the monitoring and early warning attention points is more than 10, 5 of the monitoring and early warning attention points are red early warning or actual disaster occurred, the red early warning and the disaster occurred monitoring points are further communicated, the formed monitoring and early warning attention points without orange early warning in the closed area are divided into a second-stage local early warning adjusting area, and the early warning grade of the second-stage local early warning adjusting area is calculated as I grade according to the formula (2) as shown in figure 7. The final determined early warning distribution is shown in fig. 8.
Example 2
The embodiment provides a method for improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting, which specifically comprises the following steps:
s1, selecting another research area, acquiring data such as geological environment conditions, live rainfall, rainfall forecast and the like of the research area, and generating geological disaster meteorological early warning results of the area in the future for 48 hours through calculation of a geological disaster meteorological early warning model and consultation correction, wherein the two early warning areas are total; wherein, the early warning area 2 is a yellow early warning area, and the rest areas are blue early warning areas (early warning areas 1), as shown in fig. 9; the precision of the regional scale geological disaster weather early warning is determined to be 1.
S2, defining an attention time period, and determining that the early warning time period is the attention time period within 12 hours before the early warning starting time period as the early warning time period is 48 hours in the future.
S3, screening monitoring and early warning attention points of the early warning area in the attention time period, wherein 7 screened monitoring and early warning attention points are combined with the graph 10; wherein the content of the first and second substances,
2 geological disaster monitoring points are arranged in the range of the early warning area 1, and after screening, the 2 geological disaster monitoring points neither meet the screening condition 1 nor the screening condition 2, so that no monitoring early warning attention points exist in the early warning area 1;
9 geological disaster monitoring points are arranged in the range of the early warning area 2, after screening, the monitoring and early warning levels of 5 monitoring points in the attention time interval (12 hours before the early warning starting time interval) are improved by more than 2 levels and are verified and confirmed to be correct by professional technicians, the monitoring and early warning levels of the other 2 monitoring points before the early warning time interval are respectively the attention level and the warning level, the monitoring points which are actually in disaster in the attention time interval and are verified to be rainfall by the professional technicians are taken as monitoring and early warning attention points, and therefore 7 monitoring and early warning attention points are arranged in the early warning area 2.
S4, determining a local early warning adjustment area according to the distribution of the monitoring early warning attention points, and specifically comprising the following steps:
s4.1, performing watershed division on each early warning area, wherein the early warning precision adopted by a research area is 1; 15 early warning partitions are formed, and refer to fig. 11;
s4.2, determining a local early warning adjustment area, specifically as follows:
with reference to fig. 10 and 11, if there are 3 monitoring and early warning concerns in the early warning partition 2-1, the early warning partition 2-1 is entirely used as a local early warning adjustment area; monitoring and early warning points in early warning subareas 2-4, 2-5 and 2-6 in the early warning area 2 are less than 3, the total number of the monitoring and early warning points in the early warning subareas 2-4, 2-5 and 2-6 (distributed adjacently in pairs) is 4, the distance between all the monitoring and early warning points is less than 200km, and the monitoring and early warning points in the three early warning subareas are sequentially communicated to form a maximum-area closed area as a local adjusting area. The distribution of the determined local forewarning adjustment zones is shown in fig. 12.
S5, determining the early warning grade of the local early warning adjustment area:
the early warning levels of the early warning partitions and the early warning levels of the monitoring early warning concern points are unified and are expressed in formula (1), the weight coefficients are determined to be a =0.6 and b =0.4 according to the early warning precision, the early warning levels of the local early warning adjusting areas are calculated and determined one by one, the result is shown in table 2, and the early warning distribution of the finally determined local early warning adjusting areas is shown in fig. 13.
Table 2 embodiment 2 early warning level adjusting table of local early warning adjusting area
In conclusion, aiming at the regularity of the inoculation development of the rainfall-induced geological disaster, the rapid change of the early warning level is monitored by the monitoring points in a short period of time in the early stage of the early warning period, the deformation evolution trend of the slope rock-soil body is quantized, the regional geological disaster meteorological early warning result is corrected, the defect of large difference of disaster occurrence degrees of different regions under the action of rainfall is overcome by the point feedback surface, the accuracy of regional geological disaster meteorological early warning and forecasting is favorably improved, and the geological disaster prevention and reduction are better served.
The foregoing are merely exemplary embodiments of the present invention, which enable those skilled in the art to understand or practice the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention.
It will be understood that the invention is not limited to what has been described above and that various modifications and changes can be made without departing from the scope thereof. The scope of the invention is limited only by the appended claims.
Claims (6)
1. The method for improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting is characterized in that monitoring early warning carried out by geological disaster monitoring points and geological disaster meteorological early warning carried out by regional scales are combined, and the accuracy of regional geological disaster meteorological early warning and forecasting is improved in a point feedback surface mode.
2. The method for improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting according to claim 1, is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, generating an early warning area according to geological disaster weather early warning data of a regional scale, determining early warning precision of the early warning area, and defining an attention time period;
s2, screening monitoring early warning attention points of an early warning area in the attention time period;
s3, determining a local early warning adjusting area according to the distribution of the monitoring early warning concern points;
and S4, determining the early warning grade of the local early warning adjustment area.
3. The method for improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting according to claim 2, wherein the method for defining the period of interest in S1 comprises the following steps:
for geological disaster weather early warning for 24 hours in the future, defining 6 hours before the early warning starting time period as an attention time period;
for geological disaster weather early warning for 48 hours in the future, defining 12 hours before the early warning starting time period as an attention time period;
for geological disaster weather forecast of 72-168 hours in the future, 24 hours before the early warning starting period is the concerned period.
4. The method for improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting according to claim 2, characterized in that the screening method for monitoring early warning concerns in S2 comprises the following steps:
screening monitoring and early warning levels which are improved by more than 2 levels in the attention time period, and using the monitoring points which are checked to be correct as monitoring and early warning attention points;
or screening monitoring points with monitoring and early warning levels as attention levels or warning levels before the attention period begins, wherein the monitoring points actually have disasters in the attention period and are checked and confirmed to have rainfall as monitoring and early warning attention points.
5. The method for improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting according to claim 2, wherein the step S3 of determining a local early warning adjustment area according to the distribution of the monitoring early warning concern includes:
s3.1, performing drainage basin division on each early warning area to form early warning partitions, wherein the specific division method comprises the following steps: dividing a national-level and provincial-level geological disaster weather early warning area or an early warning area with the early warning precision of 1 ten thousand-1; dividing urban and county geological disaster meteorological early warning areas or early warning areas with early warning accuracy of more than 1 ten thousand by using micro watershed or small watershed subunits;
s3.2, determining a local early warning adjustment area, wherein the specific method comprises the following steps:
if more than 3 monitoring early warning attention points exist in the same early warning subarea in the attention time period, the early warning subarea is integrally used as a local early warning adjusting area;
or if the number of the monitoring and early warning concerns in the same early warning partition in the concern time period is less than 3, when the early warning partition and all the monitoring and early warning concerns in the early warning partition adjacent to the early warning partition in the same early warning partition are not on the same straight line and the total number is more than 4, if the distance between all the monitoring and early warning concerns is less than 200km, all the monitoring and early warning concerns are sequentially connected to form a closed graph with the largest area, and the area surrounded by the closed graph is used as a local early warning adjusting area.
6. The method for improving the accuracy of regional geological disaster early warning and forecasting according to claim 2, wherein the step S4 specifically comprises:
s4.1, unifying the regional scale geological disaster weather early warning level and the monitoring early warning level of a geological disaster monitoring point;
s4.2, determining the early warning levels of the local early warning adjusting regions one by one according to the early warning levels of the early warning subareas and the early warning levels of the monitoring early warning concern points, wherein the early warning levels of the local early warning adjusting regions are obtained by calculation according to the following formula (1):
in the formula (1), T' i The early warning grade of the ith local early warning adjustment area; t is j The weather early warning grade of the jth early warning subarea where the ith local early warning adjusting area is located; t is t k Monitoring and early warning grades of a kth monitoring and early warning concern point in the ith local early warning adjustment area; n is the number of monitoring early warning concern points in the jth early warning subarea; i is the number of the local early warning adjusting area; j is the number of the early warning subarea where the local early warning adjusting area is located; k is the number of monitoring and early warning concern points in the local early warning adjustment area; a. b is a weight coefficient, and is determined according to the early warning precision and the monitoring early warning type of the early warning area;
s4.3, if the number of monitoring and early warning attention points in the local early warning adjustment area exceeds 10 and no less than 5 monitoring and early warning attention points confirm that the early warning level is red early warning or the monitoring points are actually damaged in the attention time period, communicating the monitoring and early warning attention points with the early warning level of red early warning with the monitoring points which are damaged, forming a closed area, if the closed area does not contain the monitoring and early warning attention points with orange early warning, dividing the communicated area in the local adjustment area into a second-level local early warning adjustment area, wherein the early warning level of the second-level local early warning adjustment area is determined according to the formula (2),
T″ i ＝T′ i -1 (2)
in formula (2), T ″) i Is the early warning grade, T 'of a secondary local early warning adjusting area in the ith local early warning adjusting area' i The early warning grade of the ith local early warning adjustment area;
and S4.4, updating the early warning levels of the local early warning adjusting area and the second-stage local early warning adjusting area according to the calculation results of S4.2 and S4.3, and regenerating a regional scale geological disaster meteorological early warning result.
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