CN115423268A - Typhoon disaster risk assessment method and device for power transmission line - Google Patents
Typhoon disaster risk assessment method and device for power transmission line Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of power risk assessment, and particularly provides a typhoon disaster risk assessment method and device for a power transmission line, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk evaluation system; determining a typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index; performing typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line; wherein, the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index is obtained based on an analytic hierarchy process. The technical scheme provided by the invention can comprehensively consider typhoon disaster danger, the bearing capacity and the operation and maintenance guarantee capacity of a power grid, and utilize an analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the typhoon disaster risk level of the power transmission line in a target area, so as to realize the typhoon disaster risk evaluation of the power transmission line in the target area, provide support for typhoon prevention measures of the power transmission line and improve the typhoon resistance level of the power transmission line.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power risk assessment, in particular to a typhoon disaster risk assessment method and device for a power transmission line.
Background
The transmission line is an important component of an electric power system, is very easily influenced by typhoon disasters, and has line faults such as tower collapse, disconnection and the like, so that large-scale power failure occurs, and the daily life and national construction of people are seriously influenced. Therefore, the method for evaluating the typhoon disasters of the line is developed, the typhoon-proof evaluation system of the power transmission line is established, and the method has good guiding significance for the typhoon-proof design, construction, operation and transformation of the overhead power transmission line, so that the typhoon-proof capacity of the power transmission line is improved.
At present, the typhoon disaster risk assessment of the power transmission line is generally carried out by integrating typhoon wind power and wind-induced response of the power transmission line and calculating failure probability prediction. The method is relatively complex in calculation, and other factors (such as operation and maintenance level, post-disaster recovery capability and the like) influencing the typhoon risk of the power transmission line are not considered sufficiently.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects, the invention provides a typhoon disaster risk assessment method and device for a power transmission line.
In a first aspect, a method for evaluating a typhoon disaster risk for a power transmission line is provided, and the method for evaluating the typhoon disaster risk for the power transmission line includes:
acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk evaluation system;
determining a typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
performing typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line;
wherein, the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index is obtained based on an analytic hierarchy process.
Preferably, the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system is a secondary state assessment system, and the primary index in the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system includes at least one of the following: disaster-causing risk index, physical exposure index, disaster damage sensitivity index, and disaster prevention and reduction capability index;
the final level index corresponding to the disaster-causing risk index comprises at least one of the following: historical typhoon maximum wind speed, historical typhoon wind speed median, precipitation during historical typhoon, and historical typhoon frequency;
the final index corresponding to the physical exposure index comprises at least one of the following: line density and line importance;
the final level index corresponding to the damage sensitivity index comprises at least one of the following indexes: the design wind speed of the line, the year of the use standard of the line design, the time length of the line in use and the historical fault frequency of the line;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster prevention and reduction capability index comprises at least one of the following indexes: typhoon forecasting accuracy, fault determining time, fault recovery time and emergency plan completeness.
Preferably, before determining the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final evaluation index, the method includes:
when the final evaluation index is a greater and more optimal type factor, the standard value of the final evaluation index is a normalized value corresponding to the index value of the final evaluation index;
when the final evaluation index is a smaller and more optimal type factor, the calculation formula of the standard value of the final evaluation index is as follows:
when the final evaluation index is an intermediate type factor, the calculation formula of the standard value of the final evaluation index is as follows:
in the above formula, g mi The standard value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system, x is the index value of the final-stage evaluation index, and x is the index value of the final-stage evaluation index min Is the minimum value of the final evaluation index, x max Is the maximum value of the final evaluation index, x a Is a reasonable minimum value, x, of the fluctuation range of the final evaluation index b Is the maximum value of the reasonable fluctuation range of the evaluation index of the final stage, i belongs to [1, n ] m ]，n m The total number of final-stage evaluation indexes in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk evaluation system.
Further, the calculation formula of the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line is as follows:
in the above formula, B is the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the transmission line, B mi The index value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system is obtained, and M is the total number of the first-stage indexes in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system.
Preferably, the performing typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line includes:
and if the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line exceeds a preset threshold value, the power transmission line has the risk of failure caused by typhoon disaster, otherwise, the power transmission line does not have the risk of failure caused by typhoon disaster.
In a second aspect, a typhoon disaster risk assessment device for a power transmission line is provided, and includes:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk evaluation system;
the determining module is used for determining a typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
the evaluation module is used for carrying out typhoon disaster risk evaluation on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk evaluation value of the power transmission line;
wherein, the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index is obtained based on an analytic hierarchy process.
Preferably, the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system is a secondary state assessment system, and the primary index in the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system comprises at least one of the following: disaster-causing risk index, physical exposure index, disaster damage sensitivity index, and disaster prevention and reduction capability index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster-causing risk index comprises at least one of the following: historical typhoon maximum wind speed, historical typhoon wind speed median, precipitation during historical typhoon, and historical typhoon frequency;
the final index corresponding to the physical exposure index comprises at least one of the following: line density and line importance;
the final level index corresponding to the damage sensitivity index comprises at least one of the following indexes: the design wind speed of the line, the year of the use standard of the line design, the time length of the line in use and the historical fault frequency of the line;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster prevention and reduction capability index comprises at least one of the following indexes: typhoon forecasting accuracy, fault determination time, fault recovery time and emergency plan completeness.
Preferably, before determining the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index, the method includes:
when the final evaluation index is a greater and more optimal type factor, the standard value of the final evaluation index is a normalized value corresponding to the index value of the final evaluation index;
when the final evaluation index is a smaller and more optimal type factor, the calculation formula of the standard value of the final evaluation index is as follows:
when the final evaluation index is an intermediate type factor, the calculation formula of the standard value of the final evaluation index is as follows:
in the above formula, g mi The standard value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in a typhoon disaster risk evaluation system, x is the index value of the final-stage evaluation index, and x is the index value of the final-stage evaluation index min Minimum value of final evaluation index, x max Is the maximum value of the final evaluation index, x a Is the minimum value, x, of the reasonable fluctuation range of the final evaluation index b Is a reasonable fluctuation range maximum value of a final-stage evaluation index, i belongs to [1, n ] m ]，n m The total number of final-stage evaluation indexes in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk evaluation system.
Further, the calculation formula of the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line is as follows:
in the above formula, B is the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the transmission line, B mi The index value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system is obtained, and M is the total number of the first-stage indexes in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system.
Preferably, the performing typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line includes:
and if the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line exceeds a preset threshold value, the power transmission line has the risk of faults caused by typhoon disasters, otherwise, the power transmission line does not have the risk of faults caused by typhoon disasters.
In a third aspect, a computer device is provided, comprising: one or more processors;
the processor to store one or more programs;
when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the typhoon disaster risk assessment method for the power transmission line is realized.
In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed, the method for evaluating a risk of a typhoon disaster for a power transmission line is implemented.
One or more technical schemes of the invention at least have one or more of the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a typhoon disaster risk assessment method and device for a power transmission line, which comprise the following steps: acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk evaluation system; determining a typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index; performing typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line; wherein the weight coefficient of each final evaluation index is obtained based on an analytic hierarchy process. According to the technical scheme provided by the invention, typhoon disaster danger, the bearing capacity and the operation and maintenance guarantee capacity of a power grid can be comprehensively considered, the power transmission line typhoon disaster risk level of the target area is evaluated by utilizing an analytic hierarchy process, the power transmission line typhoon disaster risk evaluation of the target area is realized, support is provided for typhoon prevention measures of the power transmission line, and the typhoon resistance level of the power transmission line is improved.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of main steps of a typhoon disaster risk assessment method for a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a main structural block diagram of a typhoon disaster risk assessment device for a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following provides a more detailed description of embodiments of the present invention, with reference to the accompanying drawings.
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart illustrating main steps of a typhoon disaster risk assessment method for a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 1, the method for evaluating a typhoon disaster risk for a power transmission line in the embodiment of the present invention mainly includes the following steps:
step S101: acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk evaluation system;
step S102: determining a typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
step S103: performing typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line;
wherein, the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index is obtained based on an analytic hierarchy process.
In one embodiment, the process of obtaining the weight coefficient of each final evaluation index based on the analytic hierarchy process includes:
(1) Constructing a decision matrix
And constructing a judgment matrix for determining the index weight, namely simply comparing, judging and calculating the indexes of the weight to be determined so as to obtain the corresponding weight of each index and provide a decision basis for evaluating the decomposition scheme of the power distribution network. Firstly, the importance degrees of the evaluation indexes of the power distribution network decomposition scheme are compared pairwise, and a questionnaire 1 is filled in by experts.
TABLE 1
| Evaluation object | Index 1 | Index 2 | … | Index i | … | Index m |
| Index 1 | b 11 | b 12 | … | b 1j | … | b 1m |
| Index 2 | b 21 | b 22 | … | b 2j | … | b 2m |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| Index i | b i1 | b i2 | … | b ij | … | b im |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| Index m | b m1 | b m2 | … | b mj | … | b mm |
In Table 1, b ij The importance degree of the index i relative to the index j is reflected, the comparison result of every two indexes is written into a numerical value by adopting a reciprocal 1-9 scaling method, a judgment matrix can be formed, and the scaling meaning is shown in a table 2.
TABLE 2
| Score value | Definition of |
| 1 | The i factor is as important as the j factor |
| 3 | The i factor is slightly more important than the j factor |
| 5 | i factor is slightly more important than factor |
| 7 | The i factor is much more important than the j factor |
| 9 | The i factor is much more important than the j factor |
| 2，4，6，8 | The importance comparison result of the i factor and the j factor is between the above results |
| Reciprocal of the | The importance of the j factor and the i factor and the importance of the i factor and the j factor are reciprocal |
Establishing a judgment matrix B according to a questionnaire:
(2) Consistency check of decision matrix
When an expert scores the importance of the evaluation index, the scoring is difficult to be completely consistent due to strong subjectivity. In order to ensure the reasonability and the correctness of the comment result, the consistency check is carried out on the judgment matrix, and the matrix which does not pass the consistency check is corrected and then checked. The random consistency ratio CR is:
in the formula: CI is a consistency index; RI is the average random consistency index.
M evaluation indexes for comparison are set, and for any judgment matrix: maximum feature root λ when the matrix remains completely uniform max = m; when the matrix does not remain exactly the same, λ max >And m is selected. Then there is a consistency index CI:
in the formula: m is the order of the judgment matrix.
The average random consistency index RI can be determined by looking up Table 3.
TABLE 3
| m | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| RI | 0.58 | 0.90 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.45 | 1.49 | 1.52 | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.58 |
And when CR is less than 0.1, the judgment matrix is considered to meet the consistency requirement, otherwise, the value of the element in the judgment matrix needs to be adjusted, and the consistency check is carried out again.
(3) Calculating the weight of the index
First, the maximum eigenvalue λ of the judgment matrix B is obtained max And its corresponding feature vector v:
Bv＝λ max v
then, each evaluation index weight ω is obtained from the feature vector v i ：
In this embodiment, the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system is a secondary state assessment system, and the primary index in the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system includes at least one of the following: disaster-causing risk index, physical exposure index, disaster damage sensitivity index, and disaster prevention and reduction capability index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster-causing risk index comprises at least one of the following: historical typhoon maximum wind speed, historical typhoon wind speed median, precipitation during historical typhoon, and historical typhoon frequency;
the final index corresponding to the physical exposure index comprises at least one of the following: line density and line importance;
the final level index corresponding to the disaster susceptibility index comprises at least one of the following: the design wind speed of the line, the year of the use standard of the line design, the time length of the line in use and the historical fault frequency of the line;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster prevention and reduction capability index comprises at least one of the following: typhoon forecasting accuracy, fault determination time, fault recovery time and emergency plan completeness.
In this embodiment, before determining the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index, the method includes:
when the final evaluation index is a greater and more optimal type factor, the standard value of the final evaluation index is a normalized value corresponding to the index value of the final evaluation index;
when the final evaluation index is a smaller and more optimal type factor, the calculation formula of the standard value of the final evaluation index is as follows:
when the final evaluation index is an intermediate type factor, the calculation formula of the standard value of the final evaluation index is as follows:
in the above formula, g mi The standard value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in a typhoon disaster risk evaluation system, x is the index value of the final-stage evaluation index, and x is the index value of the final-stage evaluation index min Is the minimum value of the final evaluation index, x max Is the maximum value of the final evaluation index, x a Is the minimum value, x, of the reasonable fluctuation range of the final evaluation index b Is the maximum value of the reasonable fluctuation range of the evaluation index of the final stage, i belongs to [1, n ] m ]，n m The total number of final-stage evaluation indexes in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk evaluation system.
Further, the calculation formula of the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line is as follows:
in the above formula, B is the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the transmission line, B mi The method is characterized in that the method is an index value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system, and M is the total number of the first-stage indexes in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system.
In this embodiment, the performing of the typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line includes:
and if the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line exceeds a preset threshold value, the power transmission line has the risk of failure caused by typhoon disaster, otherwise, the power transmission line does not have the risk of failure caused by typhoon disaster.
Example 2
Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention further provides a typhoon disaster risk assessment apparatus for a power transmission line, as shown in fig. 2, the typhoon disaster risk assessment apparatus for a power transmission line includes:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system;
the determining module is used for determining a typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
the evaluation module is used for carrying out typhoon disaster risk evaluation on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk evaluation value of the power transmission line;
wherein, the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index is obtained based on an analytic hierarchy process.
Preferably, the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system is a secondary state assessment system, and the primary index in the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system includes at least one of the following: disaster-causing risk index, physical exposure index, disaster damage sensitivity index, and disaster prevention and reduction capability index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster-causing risk index comprises at least one of the following: historical typhoon maximum wind speed, historical typhoon wind speed median, precipitation during historical typhoon, and historical typhoon frequency;
the final index corresponding to the physical exposure index comprises at least one of the following: line density and line importance;
the final level index corresponding to the damage sensitivity index comprises at least one of the following indexes: the design wind speed of the line, the year of the use standard of the design of the line, the time length of the line in use and the historical failure frequency of the line;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster prevention and reduction capability index comprises at least one of the following indexes: typhoon forecasting accuracy, fault determining time, fault recovery time and emergency plan completeness.
Preferably, before determining the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index, the method includes:
when the final evaluation index is a greater and more optimal type factor, the standard value of the final evaluation index is a normalized value corresponding to the index value of the final evaluation index;
when the final evaluation index is a smaller and more excellent type factor, the standard value of the final evaluation index is calculated as follows:
when the final evaluation index is an intermediate type factor, the standard value of the final evaluation index is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, g mi The standard value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in a typhoon disaster risk evaluation system, x is the index value of the final-stage evaluation index, and x is the index value of the final-stage evaluation index min Is prepared into powderMinimum value of grade evaluation index, x max Is the maximum value of the final evaluation index, x a Is the minimum value, x, of the reasonable fluctuation range of the final evaluation index b Is the maximum value of the reasonable fluctuation range of the evaluation index of the final stage, i belongs to [1, n ] m ]，n m The total number of final-stage evaluation indexes in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk evaluation system.
Further, the calculation formula of the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line is as follows:
in the above formula, B is the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the transmission line, B mi The index value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system is obtained, and M is the total number of the first-stage indexes in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system.
Preferably, the performing typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line includes:
and if the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line exceeds a preset threshold value, the power transmission line has the risk of failure caused by typhoon disaster, otherwise, the power transmission line does not have the risk of failure caused by typhoon disaster.
Example 3
Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a computer apparatus comprising a processor and a memory, the memory being configured to store a computer program comprising program instructions, the processor being configured to execute the program instructions stored by the computer storage medium. The Processor may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), or may be other general purpose Processor, a Digital Signal Processor (DSP), an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), an off-the-shelf Programmable gate array (FPGA) or other Programmable logic device, a discrete gate or transistor logic device, a discrete hardware component, etc., which is a computing core and a control core of the terminal, and is specifically adapted to implement one or more instructions, and specifically adapted to load and execute one or more instructions in a computer storage medium so as to implement a corresponding method flow or a corresponding function, so as to implement the steps of the typhoon disaster risk assessment method for the power transmission line in the foregoing embodiments.
Example 4
Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention further provides a storage medium, in particular a computer readable storage medium (Memory), which is a Memory device in a computer device and is used for storing programs and data. It is understood that the computer readable storage medium herein can include both built-in storage medium in the computer device and, of course, extended storage medium supported by the computer device. The computer-readable storage medium provides a storage space storing an operating system of the terminal. Also, one or more instructions, which may be one or more computer programs (including program code), are stored in the memory space and are adapted to be loaded and executed by the processor. It should be noted that the computer readable storage medium may be a high-speed RAM memory, or a non-volatile memory (non-volatile memory), such as at least one disk memory. One or more instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium may be loaded and executed by the processor to implement the steps of the method for assessing the risk of the typhoon disaster on the power transmission line in the foregoing embodiments.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.
Claims (12)
1. A typhoon disaster risk assessment method for a power transmission line is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk evaluation system;
determining a typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
performing typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line;
wherein the weight coefficient of each final evaluation index is obtained based on an analytic hierarchy process.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system is a secondary status assessment system, and the primary indicators in the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system comprise at least one of the following: disaster-causing risk index, physical exposure index, disaster damage sensitivity index, and disaster prevention and reduction capability index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster-causing risk index comprises at least one of the following: historical typhoon maximum wind speed, historical typhoon wind speed median, precipitation during historical typhoon, and historical typhoon frequency;
the final index corresponding to the physical exposure index comprises at least one of the following: line density and line importance;
the final level index corresponding to the disaster susceptibility index comprises at least one of the following: the design wind speed of the line, the year of the use standard of the line design, the time length of the line in use and the historical fault frequency of the line;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster prevention and reduction capability index comprises at least one of the following indexes: typhoon forecasting accuracy, fault determining time, fault recovery time and emergency plan completeness.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein before determining the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final evaluation index, the method comprises:
when the final evaluation index is a greater and more optimal type factor, the standard value of the final evaluation index is a normalized value corresponding to the index value of the final evaluation index;
when the final evaluation index is a smaller and more optimal type factor, the calculation formula of the standard value of the final evaluation index is as follows:
when the final evaluation index is an intermediate type factor, the calculation formula of the standard value of the final evaluation index is as follows:
in the above formula, g mi The standard value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system, x is the index value of the final-stage evaluation index, and x is the index value of the final-stage evaluation index min Is the minimum value of the final evaluation index, x max Is the maximum value of the final evaluation index, x a Is the minimum value, x, of the reasonable fluctuation range of the final evaluation index b Is the maximum value of the reasonable fluctuation range of the evaluation index of the final stage, i belongs to [1, n ] m ]，n m The total number of final-stage evaluation indexes in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk evaluation system.
4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the calculation formula of the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the transmission line is as follows:
in the above formula, B is the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the transmission line, B mi The method is characterized in that the method is an index value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system, and M is the total number of the first-stage indexes in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the performing typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line comprises:
and if the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line exceeds a preset threshold value, the power transmission line has the risk of faults caused by typhoon disasters, otherwise, the power transmission line does not have the risk of faults caused by typhoon disasters.
6. A typhoon disaster risk assessment device for a power transmission line, the device comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring index values of all final-stage evaluation indexes in a pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk evaluation system;
the determining module is used for determining a typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final-stage evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index;
the evaluation module is used for carrying out typhoon disaster risk evaluation on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk evaluation value of the power transmission line;
wherein, the weight coefficient of each final-stage evaluation index is obtained based on an analytic hierarchy process.
7. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system is a secondary state assessment system, and the primary indicators in the pre-constructed typhoon disaster risk assessment system comprise at least one of: disaster-causing risk index, physical exposure index, disaster damage sensitivity index, and disaster prevention and reduction capability index;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster-causing risk index comprises at least one of the following: historical typhoon maximum wind speed, historical typhoon wind speed median, precipitation during historical typhoon, and historical typhoon frequency;
the final index corresponding to the physical exposure index comprises at least one of the following: line density and line importance;
the final level index corresponding to the disaster susceptibility index comprises at least one of the following: the design wind speed of the line, the year of the use standard of the design of the line, the time length of the line in use and the historical failure frequency of the line;
the final-stage index corresponding to the disaster prevention and reduction capability index comprises at least one of the following: typhoon forecasting accuracy, fault determining time, fault recovery time and emergency plan completeness.
8. The apparatus according to claim 6, wherein before determining the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line based on the index value of each final evaluation index and the weight coefficient of each final evaluation index, the apparatus comprises:
when the final evaluation index is a greater and more optimal type factor, the standard value of the final evaluation index is a normalized value corresponding to the index value of the final evaluation index;
when the final evaluation index is a smaller and more optimal type factor, the calculation formula of the standard value of the final evaluation index is as follows:
when the final evaluation index is an intermediate type factor, the calculation formula of the standard value of the final evaluation index is as follows:
in the above formula, g mi The standard of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk evaluation systemThe value x is the index value of the final evaluation index, x min Minimum value of final evaluation index, x max Is the maximum value of the final evaluation index, x a Is the minimum value, x, of the reasonable fluctuation range of the final evaluation index b Is a reasonable fluctuation range maximum value of a final-stage evaluation index, i belongs to [1, n ] m ]，n m The total number of final-stage evaluation indexes in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk evaluation system.
9. The apparatus of claim 8, wherein the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line is calculated as follows:
in the above formula, B is the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the transmission line, B mi The index value of the ith final-stage evaluation index in the mth first-stage index in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system is obtained, and M is the total number of the first-stage indexes in the typhoon disaster risk assessment system.
10. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein the performing of the typhoon disaster risk assessment on the power transmission line based on the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line comprises:
and if the typhoon disaster risk assessment value of the power transmission line exceeds a preset threshold value, the power transmission line has the risk of failure caused by typhoon disaster, otherwise, the power transmission line does not have the risk of failure caused by typhoon disaster.
11. A computer device, comprising: one or more processors;
the processor to store one or more programs;
the one or more programs, when executed by the one or more processors, implement the method for typhoon disaster risk assessment for power transmission lines according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
12. A computer-readable storage medium, having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed, implements the method for assessing risk of typhoon disaster on an electric transmission line according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
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