CN115422840A - Ridge-scale runoff estimation method based on physical model mixed deep learning model - Google Patents

Ridge-scale runoff estimation method based on physical model mixed deep learning model Download PDF

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CN115422840A
CN115422840A CN202211088365.5A CN202211088365A CN115422840A CN 115422840 A CN115422840 A CN 115422840A CN 202211088365 A CN202211088365 A CN 202211088365A CN 115422840 A CN115422840 A CN 115422840A
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董国涛
廉耀康
薛华柱
杜得彦
范正军
畅祥生
赵沛
高喆
李凯
张震域
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for estimating Japanese scale runoff based on a physical model mixed deep learning model, which comprises the following steps: the method comprises the following steps of (I) estimating preliminary runoff based on a HIMS hydrological model; and (II) based on the mixed physical data model HPD, taking the preliminary runoff data estimated by the hydrological model in the step (I) and other site observation data as a training data set, acquiring an optimal HPD model, and carrying out daily runoff estimation by using the optimal model. The invention has the following beneficial effects: the method combines the advantages of a physical model and a deep learning model, has good learning capacity of simulating the runoff, and can more accurately estimate the runoff; while the estimation of peak runoff is optimized.

Description

Ridge-scale runoff estimation method based on physical model mixed deep learning model
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method for simulating regional daily runoff, in particular to a daily runoff estimation method based on a mixed physical model and a deep learning network model.
Background
Runoff is an important link in water circulation movement, determines the water resource condition and the ecological environment quality in a certain area to a certain degree, and is particularly important for timely and accurately acquiring dynamic changes of river runoff on different time scales. Runoff prediction is one of key tasks of effective water resource management, and aims to obtain the runoff volume in a certain runoff area through certain priori knowledge and technical means, make relevant schemes and policies aiming at runoff prediction results, accurately predict runoff, enable people to take corresponding measures as soon as possible on the problems of drought resistance, flood control, water abandonment, water storage and the like, perform overall arrangement and better maximize comprehensive benefits on the premise of safety.
The current runoff prediction method mainly comprises a hydrological model and a data driving method, wherein the hydrological model shows an interpretable relation between input variables and output variables on the basis of a physical model, each parameter of the model has definite physical significance, runoff abnormal values caused by extreme rainfall can be well captured, but the model is complex and depends heavily on expert knowledge, the water circulation process is assumed and simplified in the modeling process, and a plurality of physical parameters are generally concentrated into one parameter to reduce the complexity of the model.
In recent years, deep learning techniques have enjoyed tremendous success in many computer vision and natural language processing applications. These techniques are becoming more popular in geoscience applications including hydrology, and data-driven runoff prediction methods based on deep learning techniques can better capture the nonlinear relationship between input features and runoff, and can achieve higher runoff prediction accuracy (Kratzert, klotz et al 2018, anh, loc et al 2020, gauch, kratzert et al 2021, frame, kratzert et al 2022).
Since deep learning models can only capture the correlation between variables, even though the performance prediction of data-driven models based on deep learning methods is high, it provides little physical explanation except its fitting ability, deep learning methods completely disregard the physical laws behind the data set, and do not see the fundamental laws of physics, and thus lack a generalized model that can be reliably used to simulate a hydrological process.
Physics-based models are well suited to represent conceptually well understood processes. Deep learning models may fit observed data well, but predictions may be physically inconsistent, resulting in large variations even with slight disturbances. Thus, a deep learning model of physical guidance is a possible approach to solving the current problem.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a daily-scale runoff estimation method based on a physical model mixed deep learning model, so that the runoff estimation precision is further improved, and particularly, the extreme runoff is estimated.
In order to solve the problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a method for estimating the daily-scale runoff based on a physical model mixed deep learning model is characterized by comprising the following steps:
carrying out calibration and verification through a distributed hydrological model HIMS by utilizing meteorological data and runoff data in a research area, and carrying out primary runoff estimation based on the calibrated and verified distributed hydrological model HIMS to obtain a primary runoff estimation Q';
step (two) is to input D and output Y of the physical model PHY Taken together as a deep learning model f PHY The input characteristics of the physical data model are used for constructing a mixed physical data model HPD; and (3) based on the constructed mixed physical data model HPD, taking the preliminary runoff data obtained by the hydrological model estimation in the step (I) and other site observation data as a training data set, obtaining an optimal mixed physical data model HPD, and carrying out daily runoff estimation by using the optimal mixed physical data model HPD.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the traditional hydrological model has definite physical significance, but more required input parameters and more complex model forms, and the deep learning model can obtain higher prediction precision by using less input data, but the physical relation between the input parameters and runoff is unclear and has no interpretability.
The invention provides a mixed model runoff prediction method, which comprises the steps of preprocessing collected and sorted data sets, preprocessing time sequence data, filling missing values by using a linear interpolation method, dividing all the data sets into a calibration set (or a training set) and a test set according to time, calibrating a HIMS physical model by using the calibration data set, and predicting runoff in a time range of the test set by using the calibrated model.
And inputting the prediction result of the HIMS model, the rainfall, the maximum value of the daily air temperature, the minimum value of the daily air temperature and the average value of the daily air temperature which are main factors influencing the runoff into an LSTM deep learning network, and predicting the runoff by capturing time series characteristics between input data and the runoff by using the LSTM model, thereby reducing error accumulation caused by time series increase. And finally obtaining a runoff prediction method combining a physical model and an LSTM model.
The invention applies some new physical methods and deep learning combined methods to the upstream runoff prediction of the black river, ensures the physical consistency of the upstream runoff while improving the prediction precision, generates a result with physical significance, and provides an important decision basis for scientifically making a water plan, improving the utilization rate of water resources and relieving the contradiction between supply and demand.
To summarize, to overcome the drawbacks of the two prior art methods in the background art, the present invention proposes a runoff prediction method for a hydrophysical model-guided deep learning model, which combines a physical equation-based model (if available) with a data-driven deep learning model to achieve predictive modeling of solar runoff upstream of a black river.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the overall method of the present invention
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a hybrid physical data model according to the present invention
Detailed Description
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the figures and examples.
In consideration of the respective advantages of the hydrological physical model and the deep learning model, the invention provides a mixed model runoff prediction method for coupling the HIMS hydrological model and the LSTM deep learning model. As shown in fig. 1, the present invention includes the following specific method steps.
Performing preliminary runoff estimation based on a distributed hydrological model HIMS:
the method comprises the following specific implementation steps:
substep 1-1: acquiring the lowest temperature, the highest temperature, precipitation data and hydrological runoff data of a meteorological station from 2000 to 2016 in a research area;
substeps 1-2: data preprocessing: missing value filling is carried out on the meteorological data and runoff data obtained in the sub-step 1-1 by using a linear interpolation method to obtain a data set with continuous time series, the data set is adjusted to a TXT input data format of an HIMS model, runoff data are 4 columns, the first 3 columns are respectively years, months and days, the last column of a runoff data file is runoff data of a date, an air temperature data file is 5 columns, the first 3 columns are respectively years, months and days, and the last two columns are respectively the highest temperature and the lowest temperature.
Substeps 1-3: selecting data of a time sequence from 2000 to 2009 as rate periodic data to rate the HIMS model; the invention discloses a parameter automatic optimization method provided by a parameter calibration selection system (namely, the optimized parameters adopt parameters provided by an HIMS system platform), wherein 3 calibration period evaluation indexes selected by the method are volume error, efficiency coefficient (Nash efficiency coefficient) and correlation coefficient (Pearson correlation coefficient), and the formulas are respectively as follows:
Figure BDA0003836099400000041
Figure BDA0003836099400000042
Figure BDA0003836099400000043
wherein Q is obs,i And Q sim,i Respectively actually measured and simulated runoff sequences;
Figure BDA0003836099400000044
and
Figure BDA0003836099400000045
actual measurement and simulation of average runoff for many years are respectively carried out; n is the number of the measured runoff.
When the volume error is less than +/-10%, the model is basically practical, the Nash efficiency coefficient is used for evaluating the closeness degree of the predicted value and the measured value of the model, the range is (-infinity, 1), the closer to 1, the higher the prediction accuracy of the model is, the correlation coefficient represents the correlation between the predicted value and the measured value, and the closer to 1, the absolute value of the correlation coefficient represents the better the linear correlation between the predicted runoff quantity and the measured runoff quantity of the model is.
Substeps 1-4: selecting data of a time sequence from 2010 to 2016 as verification period data, and verifying the HIMS model obtained by the HIMS model rate periodically by integrating 3 evaluation indexes of volume error, nash efficiency coefficient and correlation coefficient;
specifically, for the HIMS model obtained through the calibration in the substep 1-3, the corresponding runoff is simulated through the data in the verification period and is compared with the observed runoff to verify the HIMS model.
Substeps 1-5: estimating the runoff by using the HIMS model verified in the substeps 1-4 to obtain a preliminary runoff estimation Q';
(II) obtaining an estimation of daily runoff from 2013 to 2016 based on the HPD model:
as shown in FIG. 2, the present invention combines the input D and the output Y of the physical model PHY Taken together as a deep learning model f PHY The input characteristics of the physical data model are used for constructing a mixed physical data model HPD; and (3) based on the constructed mixed physical data model HPD, taking the preliminary runoff data obtained by the hydrological model estimation in the step (I) and other site observation data as a training data set, obtaining an optimal mixed physical data model HPD, and carrying out daily runoff estimation by using the optimal mixed physical data model HPD. The observation data of other sites are precipitation, lowest temperature, highest temperature, average temperature and the like in the ERA5 Daily Aggredates data set.
Substep 2-1: combining the complete data set subjected to missing value filling and abnormal value processing in the substep 1-2 with the preliminary runoff estimation Q' provided in the step (one) to form a new data set;
substep 2-2: dividing a training set and a testing set: taking data from 2000 to 2012 as training set data, and taking data from 2013 to 2016 as test set data;
substeps 2-3: data normalization: carrying out standardization processing on the divided training set and the test set by using a maximum and minimum normalization algorithm, wherein a Min-Max standardization formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003836099400000051
wherein, max (x) i ) Represents the maximum value in the array, min (x) i ) Represents the minimum value in the array, x i Represents data before conversion, x' i Representing the normalized data;
substeps 2-4: constructing a Hybrid Physical Data (HPD) model framework, which is based on the principle shown in FIG. 2, and taking the input and the output of a physical model as the input characteristics of a deep learning model together to generate a final output; wherein, the physical model is a distributed hydrological model HIMS model, the runoff Q' acquired in substeps 1-5 is adopted in the physical model output, and the deep learning model is an LSTM model in the HPD model, and the specific principle steps are as follows:
f t =σ(W f ·[h t-1 ,x t ]+b f )
i t =σ(W i ·[h t-1 ,x t ]+b i )
Figure BDA0003836099400000052
Figure BDA0003836099400000053
o t =σ(W o [h t-1 ,x t ]+b o )
h t =o t *tanh(C t )
wherein, W f 、W i 、W C And W o Different weights from the input gate, the forgetting gate and the output gate respectively; b f 、b i 、b C And b o Is a corresponding deviation value, f t 、i t And o t Is the output of the activation function at time t.
Substeps 2-5: inputting the learning rate, the dropping rate and the iteration times of the hyper-parameters into the constructed HPD model framework, debugging the model by using the divided training set, and selecting the evaluation index as
Figure BDA0003836099400000054
Figure BDA0003836099400000055
Figure BDA0003836099400000061
Wherein Q is obs,i And Q sim,i Respectively actually measured and simulated runoff sequences;
Figure BDA0003836099400000062
and
Figure BDA0003836099400000063
actual measurement and simulation of average runoff for many years are respectively carried out; and N is the number of the actual measurement runoff. NSE is the nash efficiency coefficient; RMSE is the root mean square error; r is the Pearson correlation coefficient.
Substeps 2-6: testing the debugged model by using the divided test set, comprehensively considering 3 evaluation coefficients of decision coefficients, root-mean-square errors and efficiency coefficients to evaluate the model, and selecting an optimal HPD model;
the sense of the Nash efficiency coefficient NSE and the Pearson correlation coefficient r is the same as that in substeps 1-3, and is used for verifying the accuracy and correlation of the model prediction result, and RMSE is the root mean square error and is used for measuring the deviation between the predicted runoff and the measured value.
Substeps 2-7: acquiring daily runoff estimation Q from 2013 to 2016 through an optimal HPD model
Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the preferred examples, it should be understood by those skilled in the art that modifications or equivalent substitutions can be made to the technical solutions of the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, which should be covered by the claims of the present invention.

Claims (6)

1. A method for estimating the daily-scale runoff based on a physical model mixed deep learning model is characterized by comprising the following steps:
carrying out calibration and verification through a distributed hydrological model HIMS by utilizing meteorological data and runoff data in a research area, and carrying out primary runoff estimation based on the calibrated and verified distributed hydrological model HIMS to obtain a primary runoff estimation Q';
step (two) is to input D and output Y of the physical model PHY Taken together as a deep learning model f PHY The input characteristics of the physical data model are used for constructing a mixed physical data model HPD; and (3) based on the constructed mixed physical data model HPD, taking the initial runoff data obtained by the hydrological model estimation in the step (I) and observation data of other sites as training data sets to obtain an optimal mixed physical data model HPD, and carrying out daily runoff estimation by using the optimal mixed physical data model HPD.
2. The method for estimating the daily runoff based on the physical model hybrid deep learning model as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step (one) comprises the following substeps:
substep 1-1: acquiring the lowest temperature, the highest temperature, precipitation data and hydrological runoff data of a meteorological station from 2000 to 2016 in a research area;
substeps 1-2: data preprocessing: missing value filling is carried out on the meteorological data and runoff data obtained in the sub-step 1-1 by using a linear interpolation method to obtain a data set with continuous time series, and the data set is adjusted into a TXT input data format of an HIMS model;
substeps 1-3: selecting data of a time sequence from 2000 to 2009 as rate periodic data, and carrying out parameter calibration on the HIMS model;
substeps 1-4: selecting data of a time sequence from 2010 to 2016 as verification period data, and verifying optimization parameters of the HIMS model rate period by integrating a volume error, a Nash efficiency coefficient and a Pearson correlation coefficient;
substeps 1-5: and (5) estimating the runoff by using the HIMS model verified in the substeps 1-4 to obtain a preliminary runoff estimation, which is denoted by Q'.
3. The method for estimating the daily runoff based on the physical model hybrid deep learning model according to claim 2, wherein the parameter calibration method in the substeps 1-3 is as follows: carrying out automatic optimization based on an HIMS system platform, wherein the evaluation coefficients adopted by the parameter calibration timing comprise: volume error, nash efficiency coefficient, and pearson correlation coefficient.
4. The method for estimating the daily-scale runoff based on the physical model hybrid deep learning model according to claim 2 or 3, wherein the volume error, the Nash efficiency coefficient and the correlation coefficient are expressed as follows:
Figure FDA0003836099390000011
Figure FDA0003836099390000021
Figure FDA0003836099390000022
wherein, V e Is the volume error; NSE is the efficiency coefficient; r is a correlation coefficient; q obs,i And Q sim,i Respectively actually measured and simulated runoff sequences;
Figure FDA0003836099390000023
and
Figure FDA0003836099390000024
are respectively provided withActual measurement and simulation of average runoff for many years; n is the number of actual measurement runoff.
5. The method for estimating the daily runoff based on the physical model hybrid deep learning model according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the step (two) is specifically as follows:
substep 2-1: combining the complete data set subjected to missing value filling in the substep 1-2 with the preliminary runoff estimation Q' to form an updated data set;
substep 2-2: dividing a training set and a testing set: taking the updated data set from 2000 to 2012 as training set data, and taking the updated data set from 2013 to 2016 as test set data;
substeps 2-3: data normalization: carrying out standardization treatment on the divided training set and the test set by utilizing a maximum and minimum normalization algorithm:
Figure FDA0003836099390000025
wherein, max (x) i ) Represents the maximum value in the array, min (x) i ) Represents the minimum value in the array, x i Represents the data before conversion, x' i Representing the normalized data;
substeps 2-4: constructing a HPD framework of the mixed physical data model: input D and output Y of the physical model PHY Taken together as a deep learning model f PHY To produce a final output;
substeps 2-5: setting the learning rate, rejection rate and iteration times of the hyperparameter learin the HPD frame of the mixed physical data model constructed in the substeps 2-4, and debugging the model by using the divided training set, wherein the evaluation coefficients selected by debugging are as follows: NSE, RMSE and r, wherein the RMSE is expressed as follows:
Figure FDA0003836099390000026
wherein Q obs,i And Q sim,i Respectively actual measurement runoff sequence and simulation runoff sequence, wherein N is the number of actual measurement runoff;
substeps 2-6: testing the debugged model by using the divided test set, evaluating the HPD of the mixed physical data model by using a decision coefficient, a root-mean-square error and an efficiency coefficient as evaluation coefficients, and selecting an optimal HPD model;
substeps 2-7: acquiring daily runoff estimation Q from 2013 to 2016 through an optimal HPD model
6. The method for estimating daily runoff according to claim 5 based on the physical model hybrid deep learning model, wherein the deep learning model f is PHY The LSTM model is adopted for realization.
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