CN115329282A - Missile target test accuracy detection method and device based on probability circle - Google Patents

Missile target test accuracy detection method and device based on probability circle Download PDF

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CN115329282A
CN115329282A CN202211232737.7A CN202211232737A CN115329282A CN 115329282 A CN115329282 A CN 115329282A CN 202211232737 A CN202211232737 A CN 202211232737A CN 115329282 A CN115329282 A CN 115329282A
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missile
circle
test
probability
radius
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牛威
蔡文新
鱼群
丁锐
郝磊
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Zhongke Xingtu Measurement And Control Technology Hefei Co ltd
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Zhongke Xingtu Measurement And Control Technology Hefei Co ltd
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00—Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10—Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/18—Complex mathematical operations for evaluating statistical data, e.g. average values, frequency distributions, probability functions, regression analysis

Abstract

The invention provides a missile target trial hit precision detection method based on a probability circle, which comprises the following steps: step 1, representing the probability P of missile hitting on a given radius circle R; step 2, establishing a probability circle evaluation model: step 21, in the method for evaluating the missile hit precision by the probability circle, firstly setting hypothesis test; step 22, the Bayes estimation theory is used for evaluating the semi-physical simulation data before the guided missile test or the target test data before the guided missile test, so that the semi-physical simulation data or the target test data before the guided missile test can be obtained at a certain confidence level
Figure 111404DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
The following missile was estimated with accuracy and intensity in both the vertical and horizontal directions:
Figure 955732DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
substituting the estimated values of the parameters into the formula in the step 1; step 3, further adjusting the risk of the developer
Figure 468753DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
Risk to the user
Figure 899997DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
(ii) a Step 4, calculating the total reliability of the missile target test identification scheme: according to

Description

Missile target test accuracy detection method and device based on probability circle
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of missile target test accuracy testing, in particular to a high-reliability statistical evaluation method and device under the condition of low missile target test accuracy and small sample capacity.
Background
The hit precision of the missile is an important tactical technical index for evaluating the missile performance, mainly comprises two indexes of missile hit accuracy and density, and reflects the degree of deviation of the actual drop point of the missile from the aiming point. In an actual sizing test, the missile hitting points are required to have certain density, and the distance between the scattering center of the missile hitting points and the target points meets certain requirements. The modern precision guided missile has high technological content and high price, so that the times of target practice tests cannot be too many, and the sample capacity is generally very small. However, statistically, the decrease in the number of samples often decreases the reliability of the evaluation result.
The classical statistical evaluation method is usually based on a large sample, but because the missile channel type missile is high in cost and limited by test conditions, the test sample usually belongs to a small sample or a tiny sample, and therefore, the classical statistical evaluation method is not completely suitable for evaluating the hit precision of the missile channel type missile. At present, many experts in statistical theory consider that the bayesian method is a better method for evaluating a small subsample event, and the bayesian statistical evaluation method combines an observation sample with a statistical method to synthesize the pre-test information and the post-test information into a given post-test distribution, so that all decisions and inferences can be made. The hit precision of the missile is evaluated by a Bayesian method, the key problem is how to determine the pre-test information, and the research on the key point in the field of missile evaluation is not available at present.
In addition, even though an engineering calculation model for evaluating the hit precision of the ballistic missile by using a Bayesian method exists, the research on the risk brought by the missile performance evaluation in the process of determining the pre-test information and the analysis and utilization of the reliability of the determination process are not available.
Therefore, the prior art is not sufficiently studied on the prior art, and needs to be improved and enhanced on how to utilize the prior art to improve the reliability of the evaluation result.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects and the improvement requirements of the existing method, the invention aims to provide a method and a device for detecting the hit precision of a missile target trial. Meanwhile, the credibility is used for accepting or rejecting the evaluation result.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides a missile target test accuracy detection method based on a probability circle, which is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, representing the probability of missile hitting on a given radius circle:
setting the coordinates X and Z of the intersection point of the actual trajectory of the missile and the target plane as two-dimensional random variables, wherein X and Z are independent from each other, and
Figure 979172DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
for the accuracy of the shot in the longitudinal and transverse directions,
Figure 461712DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
，
Figure 195182DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
for the vertical and horizontal shooting intensity, the missile hit points obeying the normal distribution rule are on the scatter planeThe probability is:
Figure 40778DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
（1）
the radius of the given radius circle is R;
step 2, establishing a probability circle evaluation model:
step 21, in the method for evaluating the missile hit precision by the probability circle, the following simple hypothesis test is firstly adopted:
Figure 677558DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
wherein
Figure 832465DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
The research side and the user side jointly negotiate as determined in advance,
Figure 569344DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
the given required index value;
let m be the number of missiles that fall within a circle with radius R, and take m as a statistic, then:
Figure 405582DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
（2）
Figure 208453DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
（3）
in the formula
Figure 973409DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
，
Figure 743787DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
Respectively as follows:
Figure 882251DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
（4）
Figure 539629DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
（5）
step 22, evaluating the semi-physical simulation data before the missile test or the target test data before the missile test by using the Bayesian estimation theory, so as to obtain the target test data with a certain confidence
Figure 974021DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
The following missile was estimated with accuracy and intensity in both the vertical and horizontal directions:
Figure 733161DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
substituting the estimated values of all the parameters into a first formula (1) to obtain different probabilities P corresponding to different circles with R as the radius;
is provided with
Figure 911201DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
The number of missiles falling within a circle with radius R, n being the total number of missile trials, then:
Figure 380010DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
（6）
thus, different circles with R as the radius can be obtained according to different probabilities p, and the number of missiles falling into the circle can be obtained
Figure 798353DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
(ii) a When it is satisfied with
Figure 481007DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
Meanwhile, the original hypothesis is accepted, and the hit precision of the missile is considered to meet the requirement of tactical technical indexes; when it is satisfied with
Figure 698624DEST_PATH_IMAGE019
Meanwhile, the original hypothesis is rejected, and the hit precision of the missile is considered to be not in accordance with the requirement of tactical technical indexes;
step 3, in step2, further setting the risk of a developer as
Figure 579861DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
The risk of the user is
Figure 434684DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
Respectively as follows:
Figure 837591DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
（7）
Figure 419750DEST_PATH_IMAGE023
（8）
by adjusting the size of the radius circle R
Figure 860221DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
And
Figure 807318DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
to thereby achieve indirect adjustment
Figure 691660DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
And
Figure 15194DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
the risk of the two parties is finely adjusted according to the scheme so as to achieve the purpose of enabling the risks of the two parties to be equivalent;
step 4, calculating the total reliability of the missile target test identification scheme:
get
Figure 310172DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
The risks of both parties are equivalent, i.e.
Figure 241219DEST_PATH_IMAGE025
(ii) a When in use
Figure 120182DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
When taking different integers, use the aboveThe formula can determine the difference
Figure 480363DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
Corresponding to different circle radii
Figure 190699DEST_PATH_IMAGE026
Will be different
Figure 246642DEST_PATH_IMAGE026
Substituting into step 1, and obtaining different results by the first formula operation
Figure 612901DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
At the confidence level
Figure 517053DEST_PATH_IMAGE027
Reliability of evaluation scheme by using lower corresponding probability circle method
Figure 98207DEST_PATH_IMAGE028
，
The overall confidence in the authentication scheme is then:
Figure 558007DEST_PATH_IMAGE029
(9)
according to
Figure 913027DEST_PATH_IMAGE030
And comparing with a predetermined threshold value to decide whether to use the scheme for missile hit accuracy evaluation.
Wherein when
Figure 116475DEST_PATH_IMAGE030
And when the threshold value is exceeded, the corresponding scheme is used for evaluating the missile hit precision.
Further, in the formula (1)
Figure 237622DEST_PATH_IMAGE031
The corresponding circle radius R is the circle probability deviation CEP.
The invention also provides a computer device comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a computer program, and the processor is characterized in that the processor implements the steps of the method when executing the computer program.
The invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, characterized in that the computer program realizes the steps of the above-mentioned method when being executed by a processor.
The method comprehensively utilizes the Bayesian theory and the probability circle method to jointly determine the basic process of the missile target trial hit precision identification scheme, and is simple and feasible, reasonable and credible in result and convenient to realize in engineering. The identification scheme comprises the thought of sequential inspection, so that the number of the missiles can be reduced, and the cost is reduced. The invention also focuses on modeling research on the risk of the user and the risk of the producer.
Additional features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by the practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof.
Detailed Description
In order to make the present invention better understood and to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the present application more clear, the present invention will be further described with reference to specific examples. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention. It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments in the present application may be arbitrarily combined with each other without conflict.
The invention carries out missile hit precision estimation based on Bayes, and the estimation method comprises the following steps:
(1) plausibility analysis of pre-test information
When a large amount of pre-test information is processed by using Bayes theory, even if different pre-test information subsamples and field test subsamples are subjected to compatibility test, the problem that large-capacity simulation information before test is 'submerged' in field small subsample test information still exists. Therefore, before estimating the deviation in the longitudinal and lateral directions using a large amount of simulated pre-test information, it is necessary to analyze the reliability of the large amount of pre-test information obtained by the simulation.
Note the book
Figure 133902DEST_PATH_IMAGE032
In order to be a sub-sample in the field,
Figure 897590DEST_PATH_IMAGE033
to test the pre-subsamples, to check whether the two subsamples belong to the same population, a competitive hypothesis was introduced:
Figure 717779DEST_PATH_IMAGE034
belonging to the same population as Y.
Figure 711010DEST_PATH_IMAGE035
Not in the same population as Y.
When in use
Figure 778192DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
Refusing to be true
Figure 842225DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
Has a probability of a false positive of
Figure 387476DEST_PATH_IMAGE037
. Then when
Figure 545531DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
Adopted for genuine
Figure 783615DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
Has a probability of 1-
Figure 334944DEST_PATH_IMAGE037
. And note:
Figure 683886DEST_PATH_IMAGE038
: admission
Figure 683066DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
The event of (2);
Figure 596445DEST_PATH_IMAGE039
(ii) a Rejection of
Figure 133605DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
Of events, i.e. adoption
Figure 787703DEST_PATH_IMAGE040
The event of (2).
In the adoption of
Figure 779405DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
In the case of (a) the (b),
Figure 93712DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
the probability of being true, i.e., the probability that X and Y belong to the same population, is referred to as the confidence level of the pre-test sub-sample Y. Using Bayes' formula one can obtain:
Figure 619633DEST_PATH_IMAGE041
（1）
in the formula
Figure 123427DEST_PATH_IMAGE042
To adopt false probabilities, i.e.
Figure 549729DEST_PATH_IMAGE040
When it is true, adopt
Figure 527613DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
The probability of (c). Probability before test
Figure 39366DEST_PATH_IMAGE043
Can be used for dredgingThe source of the pre-analytical information is determined or given by an expert. Also know
Figure 35266DEST_PATH_IMAGE044
，
Figure 112812DEST_PATH_IMAGE043
Before obtaining the field subsample
Figure 533036DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
The prior probability of establishment reflects the reliability of the method or process for obtaining the pre-test subsample. This pattern (1) can be further expressed as:
Figure 79555DEST_PATH_IMAGE045
（2）
preferably, the determination is made by adopting the principle of' equal treatment on risk
Figure 377681DEST_PATH_IMAGE037
And
Figure 14461DEST_PATH_IMAGE046
and get
Figure 107051DEST_PATH_IMAGE037
=
Figure 832211DEST_PATH_IMAGE046
，(
Figure 730766DEST_PATH_IMAGE037
Generally 1% to 5%).
(2) Estimation of pre-test distribution parameters
When the acquired missile pre-test information only contains semi-physical simulation test data, if X is the longitudinal accuracy of the missile and is in accordance with normal distribution, then
Figure 159735DEST_PATH_IMAGE047
(ii) a Z is the lateral accuracy of the missile and follows a normal distribution, then
Figure 423226DEST_PATH_IMAGE048
And independent of each other, when the information before the test (simulation test, development test data, etc.) is obtained, the sample before the test is set as
Figure 629823DEST_PATH_IMAGE049
And
Figure 4173DEST_PATH_IMAGE050
at this time, it can be determined that the pre-test distributions are normal-inverse gamma distributions, respectively. The pre-test estimates of each parameter under the square error loss function obtained by Bayes theory are respectively as follows:
Figure 615545DEST_PATH_IMAGE051
（3）
Figure 112254DEST_PATH_IMAGE052
（4）
Figure 870646DEST_PATH_IMAGE053
（5）
Figure 861736DEST_PATH_IMAGE054
（6）
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure 826150DEST_PATH_IMAGE055
is the longitudinal mean value of the missile,
Figure 932908DEST_PATH_IMAGE056
is the transverse mean value of the missile,
Figure 349983DEST_PATH_IMAGE057
the vertical and horizontal variances.
Figure 830250DEST_PATH_IMAGE058
In order to be a parameter of the shape,
Figure 649170DEST_PATH_IMAGE059
is a scale parameter.
Then at a confidence level of
Figure 926830DEST_PATH_IMAGE060
The following confidence intervals in the X direction are:
Figure 96780DEST_PATH_IMAGE061
（7）
Figure 121018DEST_PATH_IMAGE062
（8）
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure 856761DEST_PATH_IMAGE063
has a degree of freedom of
Figure 508585DEST_PATH_IMAGE064
The distribution of the t of (a) to (b),
Figure 962569DEST_PATH_IMAGE065
the area of the right side under the chi-square distribution density curve is
Figure 784638DEST_PATH_IMAGE066
Time of flight
Figure 125621DEST_PATH_IMAGE067
The value of (c).
Confidence intervals in the Z direction are completely similar.
(3) Estimation of post-test distribution parameters
After the missile target test, a missile target shooting test information sample is obtained
Figure 509197DEST_PATH_IMAGE068
，
Figure 889625DEST_PATH_IMAGE069
The post-test distribution can also be determined as a normal-inverse gamma distribution, with Bayes estimates for each distribution parameter as:
Figure 751271DEST_PATH_IMAGE070
（9）
Figure 891966DEST_PATH_IMAGE071
（10）
Figure 446444DEST_PATH_IMAGE072
（11）
Figure 48589DEST_PATH_IMAGE073
（12）
then at a confidence level of
Figure 713925DEST_PATH_IMAGE074
The following confidence intervals in the X direction are:
Figure 980565DEST_PATH_IMAGE075
（13）
Figure 440365DEST_PATH_IMAGE076
（14）
the confidence intervals in the Z direction are completely similar.
According to the Bayes parameter estimation theory, after missile semi-physical simulation data and missile target test data are obtained, the optimal estimation values of the accuracy and the intensity of the missile target precision under a certain confidence coefficient can be obtained.
On the basis, the invention provides a missile target trial accuracy detection method, which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, performing probability representation of missile hitting on a given radius circle:
setting the coordinates X and Z of the intersection point of the actual trajectory of the missile and the target plane as two-dimensional random variables, wherein X and Z are independent from each other, and
Figure 795386DEST_PATH_IMAGE077
for shot accuracy in the portrait and landscape directions (i.e. systematic errors),
Figure 61151DEST_PATH_IMAGE078
for the shot density (i.e., standard deviation) in the vertical and horizontal directions, the probability of a missile hit point on the scatter plane obeying the normal distribution law is:
Figure 188157DEST_PATH_IMAGE079
（15）
then, when P =50%, i.e. centered on the aiming point, the radius R of the circle corresponding to the point containing 50% of the impact point is the circular probability deviation CEP.
Step 2, establishing a probability circle evaluation model considering risks of both parties:
in the method for evaluating the missile hit precision by the probability circle, the following simple hypothesis test is adopted:
primitive assumptions
Figure 818858DEST_PATH_IMAGE080
Alternative assumptions
Figure 661174DEST_PATH_IMAGE081
Wherein
Figure 481363DEST_PATH_IMAGE082
The developer and the user negotiate as determined in advance.
Figure 958481DEST_PATH_IMAGE083
Is a given required index value;
let m be the number of missiles that fall within a circle with R as the radius, and take m as the statistic, then:
Figure 524198DEST_PATH_IMAGE084
（16）
Figure 149083DEST_PATH_IMAGE085
（17）
probability of central primitive hypothesis in the equation
Figure 195799DEST_PATH_IMAGE086
Probability of alternative device
Figure 606051DEST_PATH_IMAGE087
Respectively as follows:
Figure 578555DEST_PATH_IMAGE088
（18）
Figure 144533DEST_PATH_IMAGE089
（19）
the application creatively provides an identification scheme for determining missile evaluation by using circular probability deviation (CEP), and the main idea is as follows: the Bayesian estimation theory is utilized to evaluate the semi-physical simulation data before the missile test or the target test data before the missile test, and certain confidence coefficient can be obtained
Figure 759054DEST_PATH_IMAGE090
The following missile was estimated with accuracy and intensity in both the vertical and horizontal directions:
Figure 243387DEST_PATH_IMAGE091
by substituting the estimated values of the parameters into the first equations (15) to (17), it is possible to obtain different probabilities P corresponding to different circles having R as the radius.
Is provided with
Figure 183530DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
To fall within a radius RThe number of missiles in the circle, n is the total number of missile tests, then:
Figure 219226DEST_PATH_IMAGE093
（20）
thus, different circles with R as the radius can be obtained according to different probabilities p, and the number of missiles falling into the circle can be obtained
Figure 388170DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
(ii) a When it is satisfied with
Figure 694387DEST_PATH_IMAGE094
Meanwhile, the original hypothesis is accepted, and the hit precision of the missile is considered to meet the requirement of tactical technical indexes; when it is satisfied with
Figure 838055DEST_PATH_IMAGE095
Meanwhile, the original hypothesis is rejected, and the hit precision of the missile is considered to be not in accordance with the requirement of tactical technical indexes; changing the verification threshold
Figure 596932DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
It causes the risk of the research side and the user side to change, so that the check threshold can be determined by analyzing the risks of the two sides
Figure 792071DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
。
On the basis of the above, further setting the risk of the developer as
Figure 952794DEST_PATH_IMAGE096
(false abandon probability) using the risk of
Figure 736204DEST_PATH_IMAGE097
The (false sampling probability) is respectively as follows:
Figure 716799DEST_PATH_IMAGE098
（21）
Figure 709769DEST_PATH_IMAGE099
（22）；
in engineering, the risk of a research party and a use party is generally required to be equivalent. From the above formula, by adjusting
Figure 990578DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
Can be adjusted
Figure 944889DEST_PATH_IMAGE096
And
Figure 960250DEST_PATH_IMAGE097
the size of (2). When in use
Figure 258376DEST_PATH_IMAGE100
，
Figure 417525DEST_PATH_IMAGE101
At a certain time, with
Figure 244536DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
The increase in the number of the first and second,
Figure 497925DEST_PATH_IMAGE096
the size of the hole is increased as it is,
Figure 68584DEST_PATH_IMAGE097
the decrease is made; and vice versa. But the number of missiles
Figure 353678DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
Is an integer when adjusted
Figure 899060DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
When the risks of the two parties are adjusted according to the size, the risk change range of the two parties is large and is not easy to control.
Therefore, the R can be adjusted by adjusting the size of the R
Figure 872701DEST_PATH_IMAGE100
And
Figure 466625DEST_PATH_IMAGE101
to thereby achieve indirect adjustment
Figure 858423DEST_PATH_IMAGE096
And
Figure 328368DEST_PATH_IMAGE097
the risks of the two parties are equal to each other.
Step 3, calculating the total reliability of the missile target test identification scheme:
after acquiring the semi-physical simulation data of the missile, a Bayesian theory is utilized to obtain a certain confidence coefficient
Figure 992568DEST_PATH_IMAGE102
Parameters of
Figure 203232DEST_PATH_IMAGE103
And confidence intervals for each parameter. If get
Figure 964383DEST_PATH_IMAGE104
The risks of both parties are equivalent, i.e.
Figure 68212DEST_PATH_IMAGE105
(ii) a When in use
Figure 767178DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
When different integers are taken, the different integers can be determined by using the formula
Figure 280067DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
Corresponding to different circle radii
Figure 131611DEST_PATH_IMAGE106
. Will be different
Figure 438964DEST_PATH_IMAGE106
By bringing into the first formula, a difference can be obtained
Figure 859449DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
At the confidence level
Figure 379292DEST_PATH_IMAGE102
Reliability of corresponding probability circle method evaluation scheme
Figure 85342DEST_PATH_IMAGE107
。
Overall, the overall confidence of the identification scheme is:
Figure 579908DEST_PATH_IMAGE108
(9)
when in use
Figure 971575DEST_PATH_IMAGE109
When a threshold value is exceeded, preferably 0.7, a corresponding scheme is used for the assessment of the missile hit accuracy.
Further experiments were used to verify the following: 2000 trajectory simulation target practice experimental data of a certain type of missile are known, and the prior probability is determined by experts
Figure 59224DEST_PATH_IMAGE110
Carrying out credibility analysis on the information before the test by a Bayes estimation method, wherein the risks of the two parties are equivalent:
Figure 383895DEST_PATH_IMAGE111
the credibility of the available pre-test information is as follows:
Figure 534516DEST_PATH_IMAGE112
model evaluation using Bayes theory at confidence
Figure 960949DEST_PATH_IMAGE113
The results of the calculation under the conditions are shown in Table 1.
TABLE 1 missile landing Point spread estimation in the transverse direction
Figure 88174DEST_PATH_IMAGE114
Now consider the risks of both parties, get
Figure 240587DEST_PATH_IMAGE115
，
Figure 529486DEST_PATH_IMAGE116
This was carried into the above method, and the calculation results are shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 test identification scheme for risk missile targets considering both parties
Figure 584161DEST_PATH_IMAGE117
Engineering requirements that the risks of both parties are substantially equivalent are generally ideal identification schemes, i.e.
Figure 748033DEST_PATH_IMAGE105
. Generally, the risk of both parties is required to be about 0.1 to 0.3. As can be seen from the calculation results in table 2, if the risk of both parties is selected to be 0.2, it is quickly possible to determine whether to select scenario 4 or scenario 5 with a confidence level of 50% or 60%. Of course, if less risk is required and the confidence level of the identification scheme is higher, schemes 6 to 8 can be selected. Therefore, the selection of the target practice identification scheme also relates to the number of missiles to be shot and the cost of the test cost, and the selection of the target practice identification scheme is carried out according to the actual conditions of the two parties, the acceptable risk value is jointly selected by the research party and the use party, and the required optimal scheme reliability. The invention at least provides a method for measuring the reliability of the scheme, provides a scientific basis for selecting the scheme and further improves the evaluation accuracy.
The invention also provides various programmable processors (FPGA, ASIC or other integrated circuits) for running programs, wherein the steps in the above embodiments are performed when the programs are run.
The invention also provides corresponding computer equipment, which comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program which is stored on the memory and can run on the processor, wherein the steps in the embodiment are realized when the memory executes the program.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, the above description is only for the convenience of understanding the present invention, and is not intended to limit the present invention. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and details may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims. Therefore, the scope of the present invention should be determined by the following claims.

Claims (6)

1. A missile target test accuracy detection method based on a probability circle is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, performing probability representation of missile hitting on a given radius circle:
setting the intersection point coordinates X and Z of the actual trajectory and the target plane of the missile as two-dimensional random variables, wherein X and Z are independent from each other and
Figure 234414DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
for the accuracy of the shot in the longitudinal and transverse directions,
Figure 490952DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
for the shot density in the vertical and horizontal directions, the probability of the missile hit point on the scatter plane obeying the normal distribution rule is as follows:
Figure 360819DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
（1）
the radius of the given radius circle is R;
step 2, establishing a probability circle evaluation model:
step 21, in the method for evaluating the missile hit precision by the probability circle, the following simple hypothesis test is firstly adopted:
Figure 596891DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
wherein
Figure 910847DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
The developer and the user negotiate as determined in advance,
Figure 72707DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
the given required index value;
let m be the number of missiles that fall within a circle with R as the radius, and take m as the statistic, then:
Figure 915023DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
（2）
Figure 204053DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
（3）
in the formula
Figure 212330DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
Respectively as follows:
Figure 246888DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
（4）
Figure 809457DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
（5）
step 22, evaluating the semi-physical simulation data before the missile test or the target test data before the missile test by using the Bayesian estimation theory to obtain the target test data with a certain confidence degree
Figure 121752DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
The following missile was estimated with accuracy and intensity in both the vertical and horizontal directions:
Figure 984534DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
substituting the estimated values of the parameters into a first formula (1) to obtain different probabilities P corresponding to different circles with R as the radius;
is provided with
Figure 738731DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
The number of missiles falling within a circle with radius R, n being the total number of missile trials, then:
Figure 991858DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
（6）
thus, different circles with the radius of R can be obtained according to different probabilities p, and the number of missiles falling into the circle can be obtained
Figure 373423DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
(ii) a When it is satisfied with
Figure 825133DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
Meanwhile, the original hypothesis is accepted, and the hit precision of the missile is considered to meet the requirement of tactical technical indexes; when it is satisfied with
Figure 732652DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
Meanwhile, the original hypothesis is rejected, and the hit precision of the missile is considered to be not in accordance with the requirement of tactical technical indexes;
step 3, on the basis of the step 2, further setting the risk of a developer as
Figure 535392DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
The risk of the user is
Figure 189490DEST_PATH_IMAGE019
Respectively as follows:
Figure 761285DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
（7）
Figure 845566DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
（8）；
step 4, calculating the total reliability of the missile target test identification scheme:
get the
Figure 683072DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
The risks of both parties are equivalent, i.e.
Figure 373816DEST_PATH_IMAGE023
(ii) a When in use
Figure 301583DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
When different integers are taken, the difference is determined by the formula
Figure 786791DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
Corresponding to different circle radii
Figure 593817DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
Will be different
Figure 88252DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
Substituting into step 1, obtaining different results by the first formula operation
Figure 870525DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
At the confidence level
Figure 792214DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
Reliability of evaluation scheme by using lower corresponding probability circle method
Figure 18359DEST_PATH_IMAGE025
，
The overall confidence in the authentication scheme is then:
Figure 50906DEST_PATH_IMAGE026
(9)
according to
Figure 687686DEST_PATH_IMAGE027
And comparing with a predetermined threshold value to decide whether to use the scheme for missile hit accuracy evaluation.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein: wherein when
Figure 858904DEST_PATH_IMAGE027
And when the threshold value is exceeded, the corresponding scheme is used for evaluating the missile hit precision.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein: when in formula (1)
Figure 814091DEST_PATH_IMAGE028
The corresponding circle radius R is the circle probability deviation CEP.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein: step 3 comprises adjusting the size of the radius circle R
Figure 211181DEST_PATH_IMAGE029
And
Figure 466582DEST_PATH_IMAGE030
to thereby achieve indirect adjustment
Figure 231538DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
And
Figure 752649DEST_PATH_IMAGE019
and (4) finely adjusting the scheme according to the risks of the two parties so as to achieve the purpose of enabling the risks of the two parties to be equivalent.
5. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, wherein the processor implements the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 4 when executing the computer program.
6. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 4.
CN202211232737.7A 2022-10-10 2022-10-10 Missile target test accuracy detection method and device based on probability circle Pending CN115329282A (en)

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Citations (2)

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DE10009683A1 (en) * 2000-02-29 2001-08-30 Nokia Mobile Phones Ltd Interrupting communications unit quiescent state, especially in radio communications system, involves reducing time remaining to next activation to time sufficient for activation
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DE10009683A1 (en) * 2000-02-29 2001-08-30 Nokia Mobile Phones Ltd Interrupting communications unit quiescent state, especially in radio communications system, involves reducing time remaining to next activation to time sufficient for activation
CN106202929A (en) * 2016-07-11 2016-12-07 中国人民解放军国防科学技术大学 A kind of Accuracy Asse ssment method based on Bayes mixed model

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