CN115313360A - Power grid dispatching control method based on model - Google Patents
Power grid dispatching control method based on model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A power grid dispatching control method based on a model belongs to the field of power grid dispatching control and aims to solve the problems that a power grid dispatching control system in an existing combined operation mode cannot guarantee that net income of a power grid unit is maximum and carbon emission is high. The method comprises the steps of predicting the next-day wind power generation value according to historical weather data; forecasting the next-day power grid demand load value according to the historical power grid load value; introducing an energy storage battery, balancing the load of the power grid, and obtaining the value of the electric power which can be stored or provided by the energy storage battery; the next-day power grid demand load value is used for removing the next-day wind power generation value and the power value which can be stored or provided by the energy storage battery, and a next-day firepower generation initial value is obtained; outputting penalty cost by using the constructed model; determining a planned value of next-day wind power generation by using the constructed net income value function so as to maximize the net income value; and carrying out power grid dispatching control according to the next-day firepower power output planned value. The method has the beneficial effects of good environmental protection benefit and economic benefit.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of power grid dispatching control, and particularly relates to a power grid dispatching control method.
Background
With global warming, the global temperature rises, the global precipitation can be redistributed by the global temperature rise, glaciers and frozen earth are ablated, and the sea level rises; this not only jeopardizes the balance of the natural ecosystem, but also threatens the survival of humans and animals; meanwhile, human beings find that the global warming needs to be relieved and changed, the current transitional dependence on fossil fuels needs to be changed, the emission of carbon dioxide is reduced, and clean energy is searched; the wind power generation is made by the advantages of zero pollution, low cost and reliable technology; however, the randomness, the fluctuation and the intermittence of wind power generation are large, and a thermal power generating unit is required to be matched; namely a thermal power and wind power combined operation mode; the power grid dispatching control system in the existing thermal power and wind power combined operation mode only considers the minimum combustion cost and ignores the environmental cost caused by carbon dioxide emission, namely the problem that the carbon emission cannot be well solved in the existing thermal power and wind power combined operation mode, and the fighting target of carbon emission reduction in two stages cannot be met.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the problems that the net income of a power grid unit cannot be guaranteed to be maximum and the high carbon emission cannot be solved by a power grid dispatching control system in the conventional combined operation mode, and provides a power grid dispatching control method based on a model.
The invention discloses a model-based power grid dispatching control method, which comprises the following steps of:
acquiring historical weather data and historical power grid load values of a power grid unit operation area;
predicting the next-day wind power generation value according to the historical weather data of the power grid unit operation area obtained in the first step to obtain the next-day wind power generation value;
predicting the next-day load value according to the historical power grid load value of the power grid unit operation area obtained in the step one to obtain the next-day power grid demand load value;
step four, introducing an energy storage battery, balancing the load of the power grid, and obtaining the value of the power which can be stored or provided by the energy storage battery;
step five, the next-day wind power generation value obtained in the step two and the power value which can be stored or provided by the energy storage battery in the step four are removed from the next-day power grid demand load value obtained in the step three, and a next-day firepower generation initial value is obtained;
step six, constructing a model, taking the initial value of the next-day firepower electricity generation as input, and outputting punishment cost;
step seven, constructing a net profit value function by utilizing the next-day wind power generation value in the step two, the next-day power grid demand load value in the step three, the power value stored or provided by the energy storage battery in the step four, the next-day firepower generation initial value in the step five and the punishment cost in the step six;
step eight, determining a planned value of next-day wind power generation based on the net income value function constructed in the step seven, so that the net income value is maximum;
and step nine, carrying out power grid dispatching control according to the next-day firepower power output planning value determined in the step eight.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the power grid dispatching control method can stably balance the relationship among the thermal generator set, the wind power generator set and the energy storage battery, and has good environmental protection benefit and economic benefit; the power grid dispatching control method has the advantages that the emission reduction effect is better, the economic benefit is relatively high, and less energy of the energy storage battery is needed for balancing the output deviation of the wind power generator set; in the future low-carbon background, the energy-saving scheduling method has a very important position.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a power grid dispatching control method based on a model according to a first embodiment.
Detailed Description
The first embodiment is as follows: the present embodiment is described with reference to fig. 1, and the control method for model-based power grid dispatching according to the present embodiment includes the following steps:
acquiring historical weather data and historical power grid load values of a power grid unit operation area;
predicting the next-day wind power generation value according to the historical weather data of the power grid unit operation area obtained in the first step to obtain the next-day wind power generation value;
thirdly, predicting the load value of the next day according to the historical power grid load value of the power grid unit operation area obtained in the first step to obtain the power grid demand load value of the next day;
step four, introducing an energy storage battery, balancing the load of the power grid, and obtaining the value of the power which can be stored or provided by the energy storage battery;
step five, the next-day wind power generation value obtained in the step two and the power value which can be stored or provided by the energy storage battery in the step four are removed from the next-day power grid demand load value obtained in the step three, and a next-day firepower generation initial value is obtained;
constructing a model, taking the initial value of the next-day firepower power generation as input, and outputting punishment cost;
step seven, constructing a net profit value function by utilizing the next-day wind power generation value in the step two, the next-day power grid demand load value in the step three, the power value stored or provided by the energy storage battery in the step four, the next-day firepower generation initial value in the step five and the punishment cost in the step six;
step eight, determining a planned value of next-day wind power generation based on the net income value function constructed in the step seven, so that the net income value is maximum;
and step nine, carrying out power grid dispatching control according to the next-day thermal power generation plan value determined in the step eight.
In the embodiment, an energy storage battery is introduced in the fourth step, so that the load of the power grid is balanced, and meanwhile, the dispatching control of the power grid is realized by controlling the firepower output value; to cope with randomness, fluctuation and intermittence of wind power generation; on the premise of ensuring the maximum output wind power output value of the wind power generation, the thermal power output value is controlled in a planned way; when the next-day wind power generation value and the next-day thermal power generation planning value are larger than the next-day power grid demand load value, the energy storage battery stores electricity; otherwise, discharging the energy storage battery; and the problem of high carbon emission can be effectively solved by utilizing the constructed model, and the maximum net income value is also the final target of power grid dispatching control.
The second embodiment is as follows: in this embodiment, the wind power generation value of the next day is predicted according to the acquired historical weather data of the operating area of the power grid unit in the second step, and the specific method for obtaining the wind power generation value of the next day is as follows:
step two, extracting historical weather data of an operation area of the power grid unit, extracting wind speed data, and selecting wind speed data meeting conditions from the extracted wind speed data;
secondly, acquiring elevation data of a target area, and establishing a geometric model of a power grid unit operation area based on the elevation data;
step two, establishing a complex terrain wind speed simulation model, establishing a simulation area based on the wind speed data meeting the conditions selected in the step one and the geometric model of the power grid unit operation area established in the step two, importing the simulation area into the complex terrain wind speed simulation model, setting boundary conditions, and calculating to obtain a wind speed simulation result of the power grid unit operation area;
step two, carrying out time series analysis on the wind speed simulation result obtained in the step two and the historical meteorological data obtained in the step two by adopting a time series analysis method, and predicting to obtain a meteorological data predicted value of the next day;
and step two, calculating according to the meteorological data obtained by prediction in the step two, so as to obtain the next-day wind power generation value.
In this embodiment, the complex terrain wind speed simulation model established in the third step is a complex terrain wind speed simulation model established by using a hydrodynamics analysis software, and the complex terrain wind speed simulation model is a complex terrain wind speed simulation model of the whole terrain including elements such as a target area and a power transmission line.
In the present embodiment, for the first step, the next-day wind power generation value is a random variable related to the wind speed, and when the wind speed is lower than the cut-to-person wind speed or higher than the cut-out wind speed, the wind power generation value (output power) of the wind turbine generator is 0; when the wind speed is between the cut-to-person wind speed and the rated wind speed, the wind power output value of the wind turbine generator and the wind speed present a linear relation; when the wind speed is between the rated wind speed and the cut-out wind speed, the wind power output value of the wind turbine generator is at the highest value; the relationship between the wind power generation value W and the wind speed v is represented by the following formula:
wherein v is i For the cut-in wind speed, v r At rated wind speed, v 0 To cut out the wind speed, w r Is the rated power.
The third concrete implementation mode: in this embodiment, the load value of the next day is predicted according to the obtained historical power grid load value of the power grid unit operation area in the third step, and the specific method for obtaining the next-day power grid demand load value includes:
step three, converting the acquired historical power grid load value of the power grid unit operation area into a high-dimensional space, and acquiring high-dimensional power grid load data;
step two, constructing a sliding window matrix according to the high-dimensional power grid load data acquired in the step one;
thirdly, decomposing each sliding window matrix constructed in the third step by using singular value decomposition and dynamic mode decomposition to construct a power grid load linear model;
and step three, obtaining the next-day power grid demand load value according to the power grid load linear model constructed in the step three.
The fourth concrete implementation mode: in this embodiment, the method for controlling power grid dispatching based on a model in the first embodiment is further defined, and in this embodiment, the specific method for constructing the model in the sixth step is as follows:
sixthly, obtaining the carbon dioxide emission according to the input next-day fire power output initial value;
step six, judging whether the carbon dioxide emission exceeds the carbon emission limit; if the carbon dioxide emission does not exceed the carbon emission limit, executing a sixth step and a third step; if the carbon oxide emission exceeds the carbon emission limit, executing a sixth step and a fourth step;
sixthly, subtracting the carbon dioxide emission amount by using the carbon emission amount to obtain an un-excess part, and giving the un-excess part out; at this time, the penalty cost is expressed by formula (1);
C T ＝-K ET ·(F T -F M ) (1)
wherein, C T Penalty cost; k is ET Trading prices for carbon emissions; f T Is a carbon emission value; f M Carbon dioxide emission;
step six, subtracting carbon emission limit from carbon dioxide emission to obtain excess part; for the excess part, the carbon emission right is purchased or a penalty is paid after the carbon emission right is directly discharged;
wherein, the penalty cost obtained by purchasing the carbon emission right form emission is expressed by formula (2); the penalty cost of paying the penalty after directly discharging is expressed by a formula (3);
C T ＝K ET ·(F M -F T ) (2)
C T ＝K F ·(F M -F T ) (3)
wherein, K F The penalty price after super rank D.
The fifth concrete implementation mode is as follows: in this embodiment, the model-based power grid dispatching control method described in the first embodiment is further defined, and in this embodiment, the net profit value function in the seventh step is in a specific form:
C jing ＝C zong -C feng -C huo -C H -C T (4)
wherein, C jing Is the net profit value; c zong The total income value of the power grid; c feng The operating cost of the wind generating set; c huo The operation cost of the thermal generator set is calculated; c H Balancing the cost for the energy storage battery; c T Penalty cost;
the total income value of the power grid is expressed by a formula (5);
C zong ＝W zong ·K D (5)
wherein, W zong The predicted next day power grid demand load value; k D Is the electricity price;
the running cost of the wind generating set is expressed by a formula (6);
C feng ＝g feng ·W feng (6)
wherein, g feng The running cost coefficient of the wind generating set; w feng The predicted next day wind power generation value of the wind generating set;
the operation cost of the thermal generator set is expressed by a formula (7);
C huo ＝g huo ·W huo (7)
wherein, g huo Operating cost system for thermal generator setCounting; w huo The next day thermal power output value of the thermal generator set; the balance cost of the energy storage battery is expressed by a formula (8);
C H ＝g H ·W H (8)
wherein, g H An operating factor to store or provide power to the energy storage battery; w is a group of H The power value that can be stored or provided by the battery is stored.
Claims (5)
1. A power grid dispatching control method based on a model is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring historical weather data and historical power grid load values of a power grid unit operation area;
predicting the next-day wind power generation value according to the historical weather data of the power grid unit operation area obtained in the first step to obtain the next-day wind power generation value;
predicting the next-day load value according to the historical power grid load value of the power grid unit operation area obtained in the step one to obtain the next-day power grid demand load value;
step four, introducing an energy storage battery, balancing the load of the power grid, and obtaining the value of the electric power which can be stored or provided by the energy storage battery;
step five, the next-day wind power generation value obtained in the step two and the power value which can be stored or provided by the energy storage battery in the step four are removed from the next-day power grid demand load value obtained in the step three, and a next-day firepower generation initial value is obtained;
constructing a model, taking the initial value of the next-day firepower power generation as input, and outputting punishment cost;
step seven, constructing a net profit value function by utilizing the next-day wind power generation value in the step two, the next-day power grid demand load value in the step three, the power value stored or provided by the energy storage battery in the step four, the next-day firepower generation initial value in the step five and the punishment cost in the step six;
step eight, determining a planned value of next-day wind power generation based on the net income value function constructed in the step seven, so that the net income value is maximum;
and step nine, carrying out power grid dispatching control according to the next-day firepower power output planning value determined in the step eight.
2. The model-based power grid dispatching control method according to claim 1, wherein the concrete method for predicting the next-day wind power generation value according to the acquired historical weather data of the power grid unit operation area in the second step to obtain the next-day wind power generation value is as follows:
step two, extracting historical weather data of an operation area of the power grid unit, extracting wind speed data, and selecting wind speed data meeting conditions from the extracted wind speed data;
secondly, acquiring elevation data of a target area, and establishing a geometric model of a power grid unit operation area based on the elevation data;
step two, establishing a complex terrain wind speed simulation model, establishing a simulation area based on the wind speed data meeting the conditions selected in the step one and the geometric model of the power grid unit operation area established in the step two, importing the simulation area into the complex terrain wind speed simulation model, setting boundary conditions, and calculating to obtain a wind speed simulation result of the power grid unit operation area;
fourthly, performing time series analysis on the wind speed simulation result obtained in the third step and the historical meteorological data obtained in the first step by adopting a time series analysis method, and predicting to obtain a meteorological data predicted value of the next day;
and step two, calculating according to the meteorological data obtained by prediction in the step two, so as to obtain the next-day wind power generation value.
3. The model-based power grid dispatching control method according to claim 1, wherein the specific method for predicting the next-day load value according to the acquired historical power grid load value of the power grid unit operation area in the third step to obtain the next-day power grid demand load value is as follows:
step three, converting the acquired historical power grid load value of the power grid unit operation area into a high-dimensional space to acquire high-dimensional power grid load data;
step two, constructing a sliding window matrix according to the high-dimensional power grid load data acquired in the step one;
thirdly, decomposing each sliding window matrix constructed in the third step by using singular value decomposition and dynamic mode decomposition to construct a power grid load linear model;
and step three, obtaining a next-day power grid demand load value according to the power grid load linear model constructed in the step three.
4. The model-based power grid dispatching control method according to claim 1, wherein the concrete method for constructing the model in the sixth step is as follows:
sixthly, obtaining the carbon dioxide emission according to the input next-day fire power output initial value;
step two, judging whether the carbon dioxide emission exceeds the carbon emission limit or not; if the carbon dioxide emission does not exceed the carbon emission limit, executing a sixth step and a third step; if the discharge amount of the carbon oxide exceeds the carbon discharge limit, executing a sixth step and a fourth step;
step six, subtracting the carbon dioxide emission amount by using the carbon emission amount to obtain an un-excess part, and giving the un-excess part out; at this time, the penalty cost is expressed by formula (1);
C T ＝-K ET ·(F T -F M ) (1)
wherein, C T Penalty cost; k ET Trading prices for carbon emissions; f T Is a carbon emission value; f M Carbon dioxide emission;
step six, subtracting carbon emission limit from carbon dioxide emission to obtain excess part; for the excess part, the carbon emission right is purchased or a penalty is paid after the carbon emission right is directly discharged;
wherein, the penalty cost obtained by purchasing the carbon emission right form emission is expressed by formula (2); the penalty cost of paying the penalty after directly discharging is expressed by a formula (3);
C T ＝K ET ·(F M -F T ) (2)
C T ＝K F ·(F M -F T ) (3)
wherein, K F The penalty price after super rank D.
5. The model-based power grid dispatching control method according to claim 1, wherein the concrete form of the net profit value function in the seventh step is as follows:
C jing ＝C zong -C feng -C huo -C H -C T (4)
wherein, C jing A net profit value; c zong The total income value of the power grid; c feng The operating cost of the wind generating set; c huo The operation cost of the thermal generator set; c H Balancing the cost for the energy storage battery; c T Penalty cost;
the total income value of the power grid is expressed by a formula (5);
C zong ＝W zong ·K D (5)
wherein, W zong The predicted next day power grid demand load value; k D Is the electricity price;
the operation cost of the wind generating set is expressed by a formula (6);
C feng ＝g feng ·W feng (6)
wherein, g feng The running cost coefficient of the wind generating set; w is a group of feng The predicted next day wind power generation value of the wind generating set;
the operation cost of the thermal generator set is expressed by a formula (7);
C huo ＝g huo ·W huo (7)
wherein, g huo The coefficient is the operation cost coefficient of the thermal generator set; w is a group of huo Of thermal generator setsThe next day of firepower power output value;
the balance cost of the energy storage battery is expressed by a formula (8);
C H ＝g H ·W H (8)
wherein, g H An operating factor to store or provide power to the energy storage battery; w is a group of H The storage battery can store or provide the power value.
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| CN112508221A (en) * | 2020-09-24 | 2021-03-16 | 国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院 | Day-ahead scheduling decision method considering source-load uncertainty under limited energy storage |
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