CN115275946A - Distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis method and system - Google Patents
Distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the field of electric power, and particularly relates to a lightning trip-out probability analysis method and system for a distribution line, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring the ground flash density of a lightning area and an effective lightning receiving area of the power distribution line to determine the ground flash density of the effective lightning receiving area; calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method; and obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground flash density, the flashover rate and the arc establishment rate of the effective lightning receiving area. Determining the ground flash density of the effective lightning receiving area by acquiring the ground flash density and the effective lightning receiving area of the distribution line; calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method; according to the ground flash density, the flashover rate and the arc establishing rate of an effective lightning receiving area, obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line; the lightning trip-out occurrence can be reasonably predicted, and lightning protection work can be guided, so that damage caused by lightning disasters is reduced.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of electric power, and particularly relates to a lightning trip probability analysis method and system for a distribution line.
Background
The transmission line is in an open field, extends for thousands of miles and is easy to be struck by lightning. The tripping caused by the lightning stroke accident of the line not only influences the normal power supply of the system and increases the maintenance workload of the line and the switch equipment, but also causes the lightning wave to invade the substation along the line. In recent years, the lightning overvoltage and protection problems of the power transmission line are greatly improved, and important basis is provided for improving the lightning resistance level of the power transmission line and ensuring the safe and reliable operation of the line. However, data in the lightning discharge process are difficult to measure accurately, and calculation results are often very different due to different calculation methods. With the continuous improvement of the voltage grade of the transmission line, a new line structure appears. From the actual operation experience of various countries, lightning strike still is the main harm of the safe and reliable operation of the transmission line.
The lightning activity is very strong regionality and seasonality, and the lightning is frequently generated in south China and east China coastal areas. As the last link of power supply, the power distribution network can trigger equipment faults, tripping and disconnection accidents in a very short time when the power distribution network is subjected to lightning disasters, however, no complete assessment method for the probability of tripping of the power distribution network caused by lightning disasters exists at present, the power distribution network cannot carry out operation and maintenance of the power distribution network aiming at the influence of the lightning disasters, power failure loss and equipment loss caused by the lightning disasters cannot be solved through effective measures, and therefore economic loss is serious.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve or improve the problems, the invention provides a lightning trip probability analysis method and a lightning trip probability analysis system for a distribution line, and the specific technical scheme is as follows:
the invention provides a distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis method, which comprises the following steps: acquiring the ground flash density of a lightning area and an effective lightning receiving area of the power distribution line to determine the ground flash density of the effective lightning receiving area; calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method; and obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground lightning density, the flashover rate and the arc establishing rate of the effective lightning receiving area.
Preferably, the calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using the monte carlo method includes: acquiring random variables corresponding to lightning parameters, wherein the lightning parameters comprise lightning current polarity, a lightning position, a lightning stroke line position, a lightning current amplitude and a power frequency power supply instantaneous value; determining the overvoltage of the distribution line according to a preset voltage calculation model; and obtaining the flashover rate of the distribution line according to the random variable and the overvoltage.
Preferably, the obtaining of the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground flash density, the flash rate and the arcing rate of the effective lightning receiving area includes:
probability of lightning trip
(ii) a Wherein Ng is the ground lightning density of the lightning area, S is the effective lightning area causing the trip of the line, xi is the flashover rate, and sigma is the arc establishing rate.
Preferably, the method further comprises: and determining a trip early warning grade according to the lightning trip probability, wherein the early warning grade comprises a low grade, a medium grade and a high grade.
Preferably, the method further comprises: and determining the effective lightning receiving area with the lightning trip-out probability being larger than an early warning threshold value, and generating corresponding early warning information.
The invention provides a lightning trip-out probability analysis system for a distribution line, which comprises: the lightning protection device comprises a first unit, a second unit and a third unit, wherein the first unit is used for acquiring the lightning density of a lightning area and determining an effective lightning receiving area of the distribution line based on historical data so as to determine the lightning density of the effective lightning receiving area; the second unit is used for calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method; and the third unit is used for obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground flash density, the flashover rate and the arc establishing rate of the effective lightning receiving area.
Preferably, the calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using the monte carlo method includes: acquiring random variables corresponding to lightning parameters, wherein the lightning parameters comprise lightning current polarity, a lightning position, a lightning stroke line position, a lightning current amplitude and a power frequency power supply instantaneous value; determining the overvoltage of the distribution line according to a preset voltage calculation model; and obtaining the flashover rate of the distribution line according to the random variable and the overvoltage.
Preferably, the obtaining of the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground lightning density, the flashover rate and the arcing rate of the effective lightning receiving area includes:
probability of lightning trip
(ii) a Wherein Ng is the ground lightning density of the lightning area, S is the effective lightning area causing the trip of the line, xi is the flashover rate, and sigma is the arc establishing rate.
Preferably, the system further comprises: and the fourth unit is used for determining a trip early warning level according to the lightning trip probability, wherein the early warning level comprises a low level, a middle level and a high level.
Preferably, the system further comprises: and the fifth unit is used for determining the effective lightning-receiving area with the lightning trip-out probability larger than the early warning threshold value and generating corresponding early warning information.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: determining the ground flash density of the effective lightning receiving area by acquiring the ground flash density and the effective lightning receiving area of the distribution line; calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method; according to the ground flash density, the flashover rate and the arc establishing rate of an effective lightning receiving area, obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line; the lightning trip-out occurrence can be reasonably predicted, and lightning protection work can be guided, so that damage caused by lightning disasters is reduced.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis method according to the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis system according to the present invention.
Description of the main reference numerals:
1-first unit, 2-second unit, 3-third unit.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without making any creative effort based on the embodiments in the present invention, belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
It will be understood that the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising," when used in this specification and the appended claims, specify the presence of stated features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.
It is also to be understood that the terminology used in the description of the invention herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. As used in the specification of the present invention and the appended claims, the singular forms "a," "an," and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
It should be further understood that the term "and/or" as used in this specification and the appended claims refers to any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items and includes such combinations.
Research shows that the tripping operation of the line caused by lightning stroke needs to meet the following requirements: (1) the overvoltage caused by lightning strike is greater than U50% of the lightning impulse withstand voltage value of the insulator to generate impulse flashover; (2) after lightning disappears, impulse flashover develops into short-circuit current arc and exists continuously, and then the action of a relay protection device is caused, and a circuit trips. The lightning withstand level and the grounding mode of the line are two important factors influencing the tripping probability of the line, and besides, the lightning withstand level and the grounding mode are also closely related to the frequency of local lightning activities.
In order to solve or improve the problem of preprocessing lightning trip-out, a lightning trip-out probability analysis method for a distribution line is provided, which is shown in fig. 1 and comprises the following steps: s1, acquiring the ground lightning density of a lightning area and an effective lightning receiving area of the power distribution line to determine the ground lightning density of the effective lightning receiving area, and S2, calculating the flashover rate of the power distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method; and S3, obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground flash density, the flash-over rate and the arc establishing rate of the effective lightning receiving area.
The method comprises the steps of obtaining the ground lightning density of a lightning area by obtaining lightning parameters and according to the lightning parameters, and determining the effective lightning area of the distribution line based on historical lightning detection information of the distribution line. The lightning parameters are recorded information of occurrence of lightning stroke events, and may include occurrence locations, ground flash density, times, physical attributes of lightning itself, and the like. Lightning stroke is a main fault type causing tripping of a power transmission line, and the development of lightning protection work of the power transmission line depends on a perfect lightning risk assessment system. At present, the main index for evaluating the lightning damage risk of the power transmission line is lightning trip-out probability, so that the accurate calculation of the lightning trip-out probability has important significance on the safe and stable operation of the power transmission line. The lightning parameters are indispensable important basic parameters in the calculation of the lightning trip probability of the power transmission line, the lightning trip probability calculation method mainly comprises three aspects of the ground lightning density, the lightning current amplitude probability density function and the lightning current waveform, and the ground lightning density of a lightning area can be obtained through data of the three aspects.
The ground flash density is the content of a region in a period of time, and the number of times of lightning strike or discharge phenomena generated in the airspace of the region is matched and recorded with the corresponding affected region. The effective lightning area of the distribution line is an area where the distribution line is abnormal due to lightning strike or discharge phenomenon. By the lightning density of the lightning area and the effective lightning receiving area, the lightning density of the area where the distribution line is abnormal due to lightning strike/discharge can be calculated. By excluding the areas not affected by the lightning stroke, the accuracy of the subsequent calculation of the lightning stroke trip probability can be improved.
And calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method, and determining the arc establishment rate of the distribution line. The monte carlo method is a stochastic simulation method, in particular a computational method based on probabilistic and statistical theory methods, which is a method for solving many computational problems using random numbers (or more commonly pseudo-random numbers), in particular by linking the solved problem with a certain probabilistic model and using an electronic computer to implement statistical simulation or sampling to obtain an approximate solution to the problem. The reason for this approach is that the lightning strike event itself is a random event, and the Monte Carlo approach is appropriate.
And obtaining the lightning trip probability of the distribution line according to the ground flash density of the effective lightning receiving area, the flash-over rate and the arc establishing rate of the distribution line. Through three important calculation parameters: the lightning trip probability is analyzed according to the ground flash density, the flashover rate and the arc establishing rate, so that the accumulated trip probability is subjected to prediction analysis, the prediction accuracy of the accumulated trip probability is improved, the lightning protection work is guided, and the damage of lightning disasters is reduced. The arc-forming rate eta depends on the average working voltage gradient E along an insulator string or an air gap and is also related to the instantaneous value of the flashover instantaneous power frequency voltage and the dissociation removing condition, and the arc-forming rate eta is calculated by the following method: η = (4.5 × E0.75-14) × 10-2, where E is the average voltage gradient of the insulator string.
The calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using the Monte Carlo method comprises the following steps: acquiring random variables corresponding to lightning parameters, wherein the lightning parameters comprise lightning current polarity, a lightning position, a lightning stroke line position, a lightning current amplitude and a power frequency power supply instantaneous value; determining the overvoltage of the distribution line according to a preset voltage calculation model; and obtaining the flashover rate of the distribution line according to the random variable and the overvoltage.
The overvoltage is a long-time voltage variation phenomenon that the root mean square value of alternating voltage rises under power frequency and exceeds 10% of a rated value, and the duration is longer than 1 minute; the occurrence of overvoltages is generally a momentary consequence of load switching. Normal use occurs when an inductive or capacitive load is switched on or off. The overvoltage calculation model may be a lightning strike passage model or a coupling model of an electromagnetic field generated by a lightning strike to an overhead line.
The obtaining of the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground lightning density, the flashover rate and the arcing rate of the effective lightning receiving area comprises the following steps:
probability of lightning trip
(ii) a Wherein Ng is the ground lightning density of the lightning area, S is the effective lightning area causing the trip of the line, xi is the flashover rate, and sigma is the arc establishing rate.
Eta is the lightning trip probability; ng is the lightning density, which represents the intensity of lightning activity and is only related to the lightning activity characteristics per se; s is an effective lightning area causing the trip of the line, and is generally a range with a distance of 0.5km from a single side of the line; xi is the probability of insulator flashover caused by lightning strike in the effective area, mainly related to the lightning-resistant level of the line (related to the structure of the tower, the grounding resistance, the existence or nonexistence of an overhead lightning conductor, the type of the insulator and the like), the lightning current, the lightning strike position and the like, and is recorded as flashover rate, and sigma is arc-establishing rate and related to the structure of the tower and the grounding mode.
According to the analysis, the lightning trip-out probability can be influenced by the ground lightning density, the lightning current, the lightning stroke position, the grounding resistance, the tower structure and the like. From the statistical point of view, the method can be divided into deterministic factors (such as grounding resistance, span, insulator model and the like) and uncertain factors (lightning current amplitude, ground lightning frequency, lightning stroke point and the like). The uncertain factors are analyzed and obtained according to the thunder and lightning activity characteristic statistics to obtain relevant thunder and lightning parameter statistics and a probability distribution model, and a Monte Carlo method is adopted to calculate flashover rate. The embodiment proposes an improved lightning trip probability calculation method based on lightning activity characteristics on the basis of calculating the trip probability by adopting a Monte Carlo method, wherein the Monte Carlo method is also called a statistical simulation method and a statistical test method. The method is a numerical simulation method using a probability phenomenon as a research object. The method is a calculation method for estimating an unknown characteristic amount by obtaining a statistical value by a sampling survey method. Monte Carlo is a famous gamble in Morna, which is named to indicate its randomly sampled nature. Therefore, the method is suitable for performing calculation simulation tests on the discrete system. In computational simulation, the stochastic nature of the system can be simulated by constructing a probabilistic model that approximates the performance of the system and performing stochastic tests on a digital computer.
The method further comprises the following steps: and determining a trip early warning grade according to the lightning trip probability, wherein the early warning grade comprises a low grade, a medium grade and a high grade.
The lightning trip-out probability early warning grade is divided into a low grade, a middle grade and a high grade, the higher the lightning trip-out probability is, the higher the corresponding early warning grade is, early warning can be sent out in the modes of an alarm and an indicator lamp, and reminding can also be sent out to a mobile terminal of a relevant person on duty.
The method further comprises the following steps: and determining the effective lightning receiving area with the lightning trip-out probability larger than an early warning threshold value, and generating corresponding early warning information.
The early warning threshold value can be a probability value of a certain area counted according to historical lightning trip-out data, and the early warning threshold values of different areas can be different.
The invention provides a lightning trip probability analysis system for a distribution line, which comprises: the lightning protection method comprises a first unit 1, a second unit and a third unit, wherein the first unit is used for acquiring the lightning density of a lightning area and determining an effective lightning receiving area of the distribution line based on historical data so as to determine the lightning density of the effective lightning receiving area; the second unit 2 is used for calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method; and the third unit 3 is used for obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground flashover density, the flashover rate and the arcing rate of the effective lightning receiving area.
The system may perform a specific lightning trip pre-processing flow:
step 1: acquiring lightning parameters and acquiring the ground flash density of a lightning area according to the lightning parameters;
step 2: calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method;
and step 3: determining the arc establishing rate of the distribution line;
and 4, step 4: determining an effective lightning receiving area of the power distribution line based on historical lightning detection information of the power distribution line;
and 5: and obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground flash density of the effective lightning receiving area, the flash-over rate and the arc establishing rate of the distribution line.
The calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using the Monte Carlo method comprises the following steps: acquiring random variables corresponding to lightning parameters, wherein the lightning parameters comprise lightning current polarity, a lightning position, a lightning stroke line position, a lightning current amplitude and a power frequency power supply instantaneous value; determining the overvoltage of the distribution line according to a preset voltage calculation model; and obtaining the flashover rate of the distribution line according to the random variable and the overvoltage.
The method for obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground flash density, the flash rate and the arc establishing rate of the effective lightning receiving area comprises the following steps:
probability of lightning trip
(ii) a Wherein Ng is the ground lightning density of the lightning area, S is the effective lightning area causing the trip of the line, xi is the flashover rate, and sigma is the arc establishing rate.
The system further comprises: and the fourth unit is used for determining a trip early warning level according to the lightning trip probability, wherein the early warning level comprises a low level, a middle level and a high level.
The system further comprises: and the fifth unit is used for determining the effective lightning-receiving area with the lightning trip-out probability larger than the early warning threshold value and generating corresponding early warning information.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the elements of the examples described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware, computer software, or combinations of both, and that the components of the examples have been described above generally in terms of their functionality in order to clearly illustrate the interchangeability of hardware and software. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the implementation. Skilled artisans may implement the described functionality in varying ways for each particular application, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present invention.
In the embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the division of a unit is only one logical function division, and in actual implementation, there may be another division manner, for example, multiple units may be combined into one unit, one unit may be split into multiple units, or some features may be omitted.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and not to limit the same; while the invention has been described in detail and with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some or all of the technical features may be equivalently replaced; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the embodiments of the present invention, and they should be construed as being covered by the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (10)
1. A lightning trip probability analysis method for a distribution line is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring the ground flash density of a lightning area and an effective lightning receiving area of the distribution line to determine the ground flash density of the effective lightning receiving area;
calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method;
and obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground lightning density, the flashover rate and the arc establishing rate of the effective lightning receiving area.
2. The distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis method of claim 1, wherein the calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line using the monte carlo method comprises:
acquiring random variables corresponding to lightning parameters, wherein the lightning parameters comprise lightning current polarity, a lightning position, a lightning stroke line position, a lightning current amplitude and a power frequency power supply instantaneous value;
determining the overvoltage of the distribution line according to a preset voltage calculation model;
and obtaining the flashover rate of the distribution line according to the random variable and the overvoltage.
3. The distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis method according to claim 1, wherein the step of obtaining the lightning trip probability of the distribution line according to the ground flash density, the flash rate and the arcing rate of the effective lightning receiving area comprises the steps of:
probability of lightning trip
(ii) a Wherein Ng is the ground lightning density of the lightning area, S is the effective lightning area causing the trip of the line, xi is the flashover rate, and sigma is the arc establishing rate.
4. The distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis method of claim 1, further comprising:
and determining a trip early warning grade according to the lightning trip probability, wherein the early warning grade comprises a low grade, a medium grade and a high grade.
5. The distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis method of claim 1, further comprising:
and determining the effective lightning receiving area with the lightning trip-out probability being larger than an early warning threshold value, and generating corresponding early warning information.
6. The utility model provides a lightning trip probability analysis system towards distribution lines which characterized in that includes:
the first unit is used for acquiring the lightning density of the lightning area and determining an effective lightning receiving area of the power distribution line based on historical data so as to determine the lightning density of the effective lightning receiving area;
a second unit, for calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line by using a Monte Carlo method;
and the third unit is used for obtaining the lightning trip-out probability of the distribution line according to the ground flash density, the flashover rate and the arc establishing rate of the effective lightning receiving area.
7. The distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis system of claim 6, wherein the calculating the flashover rate of the distribution line using the Monte Carlo method comprises:
acquiring random variables corresponding to lightning parameters, wherein the lightning parameters comprise lightning current polarity, a lightning position, a lightning stroke line position, a lightning current amplitude and a power frequency power supply instantaneous value;
determining the overvoltage of the distribution line according to a preset voltage calculation model;
and obtaining the flashover rate of the distribution line according to the random variable and the overvoltage.
8. The power distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis system of claim 6, wherein obtaining the lightning trip probability of the power distribution line according to the ground flash density, the flashover rate and the arcing rate of the effective lightning receiving area comprises:
probability of lightning trip
(ii) a Wherein Ng is the ground flash density of the lightning area, S is the effective lightning area causing the trip of the line, xi is the flashover rate, and sigma is the arc-establishing rate.
9. The distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis system of claim 6, further comprising:
and the fourth unit is used for determining tripping early warning grades according to the lightning trip probability, wherein the early warning grades comprise a low grade, a middle grade and a high grade.
10. The distribution line-oriented lightning trip probability analysis system of claim 6, further comprising:
and the fifth unit is used for determining the effective lightning receiving area with the lightning trip-out probability being greater than the early warning threshold value and generating corresponding early warning information.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN116359597A (en) * | 2023-02-01 | 2023-06-30 | 珠海博威电气股份有限公司 | Method and device for measuring lightning parameters by medium-voltage switch |
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN116359597A (en) * | 2023-02-01 | 2023-06-30 | 珠海博威电气股份有限公司 | Method and device for measuring lightning parameters by medium-voltage switch |
| CN116359597B (en) * | 2023-02-01 | 2024-04-16 | 珠海博威电气股份有限公司 | Method and device for measuring lightning parameters by medium-voltage switch |
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