CN115201938A - Strong convection weather nowcasting method and system based on thunderstorm high-pressure analysis - Google Patents
Strong convection weather nowcasting method and system based on thunderstorm high-pressure analysis Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application discloses a thunderstorm high-pressure analysis-based strong convection weather nowcasting method and system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: collecting historical thunderstorm weather information and historical strong convection weather information; analyzing historical thunderstorm weather information based on weather radar reflectivity factors to obtain historical thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics; based on historical thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics, combining historical strong convection weather information to obtain the characteristic relation between the thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics and a thunderstorm system and strong convection weather; collecting and analyzing real-time thunderstorm weather information to obtain real-time thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics; and obtaining a thunderstorm system forecast result based on the characteristic relation and the real-time thunderstorm high-pressure characteristics, and obtaining a strong convection weather nowcasting result based on the thunderstorm system forecast result in combination with a weather radar reflectivity factor. The method and the device have high accuracy in qualitative forecast of thunderstorm system development and movement, and have high reference value in the approach forecast and early warning of strong convection weather.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to a weather forecasting technology in atmospheric science, in particular to a strong convection weather nowcasting method and system based on thunderstorm high-pressure analysis.
Background
The strong convection weather is one of the most important disastrous weather in half a year in summer, and the sudden and violent coming conditions of thunderstorm, strong wind, hail, short-time strong rainfall and the like often cause local and even regional serious disasters, so that it is very important to make an approach forecast of the strong convection weather.
At present, the nowcast of strong convection weather mainly depends on the radar echo characteristics to carry out linear extrapolation forecast, and the development, movement and attenuation estimation of a middle ruler system causing the strong convection weather are often insufficient, so that the accuracy and timeliness of the nowcast of the strong convection weather are limited to a certain extent.
Thunderstorm high pressure is a ground mesoscale high pressure system caused by the sinking airflow of a strong convection weather system. Many documents show that: the thunderstorm high pressure has close relation with the strength of the strong convection weather system, the movement, the development, the weakening and the like of the strong convection weather system. Thunderstorm high pressure mainly has the following effects: 1. thunderstorm high pressure is a direct cause of thunderstorm high wind; 2. the thunderstorm high pressure and the environmental wind form a radial combination to generate strong ascending airflow; 3. the cold cushion and the pseudo cold front of the thunderstorm high pressure act; 4. thunderstorm high pressure going downhill strengthens the instability of atmospheric layer knots. The characteristics of thunderstorm high pressure have strong indication effect on the forecast of strong convection weather. Because the definition of the thunderstorm high pressure is mainly based on the sea level atmospheric pressure field, and the analysis of the sea level atmospheric pressure field is influenced by the terrain and daily change, the analysis of the thunderstorm high pressure in the current business work is less, the analysis is only limited to the analysis of the gust front caused by the thunderstorm high pressure in radar weather, the research on the morphological characteristics, the strength change, the moving path and the interaction with the ground environment field is less, and the method for the close forecasting of the strong convection weather based on the thunderstorm high pressure analysis is better referred to.
Disclosure of Invention
The application provides a method and a system for forecasting weather proximity of strong convection based on thunderstorm high-voltage analysis.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present application discloses the following solutions:
the strong convection weather nowcast method based on thunderstorm high-pressure analysis comprises the following steps:
s1, collecting historical thunderstorm weather information and historical strong convection weather information;
s2, analyzing the historical thunderstorm weather information based on weather radar reflectivity factors to obtain historical thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics;
s3, obtaining the characteristic relation between the thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics and a thunderstorm system and the strong convection weather by combining the historical strong convection weather information based on the historical thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics;
s4, collecting and analyzing real-time thunderstorm weather information to obtain real-time thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics;
and S5, obtaining a thunderstorm system forecast result based on the characteristic relation and the real-time thunderstorm high-pressure characteristics, and obtaining a strong convection weather nowcasting result based on the thunderstorm system forecast result and the weather radar reflectivity factor.
Preferably, the method for analyzing the historical thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics and the real-time thunderstorm characteristics comprises the following steps: and (4) performing characteristic analysis on the thunderstorm high pressure by adopting a 1-hour pressure swing analysis method.
Preferably, the 1-hour pressure swing analysis method comprises: the weather analysis system is used for fixing time intervals, calculating the air pressure difference between the weather observation stations in the previous 1 hour, drawing a 1-hour transformation contour line, closing the contour line area, wherein the area with large transformation is thunderstorm high pressure, the area with small transformation is mesoscale low pressure, the intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure is represented by the size of the transformation, and the larger the value of the positive transformation center is, the stronger the representation of the thunderstorm high pressure is.
Preferably, the analysis result of the thunderstorm high voltage characteristics comprises:
the strength of the thunderstorm high pressure has a better corresponding relation with the radar reflectivity factor, and the ground thunderstorm high pressure formed by the system with the strong radar reflectivity factor is strong;
the intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure has obvious daily change, and the radar reflectivity factors with the same intensity have different intensities when the radar reflectivity factors appear in different time periods in a day to form ground thunderstorm high pressure;
the intensity of the thunderstorm high voltage is represented by the difference between the maximum transformation voltage and the minimum transformation voltage.
Preferably, the characteristic relationship includes:
thunderstorm high pressure formed by a rainstorm and heavy precipitation thunderstorm system is weaker, the positive transformation pressure is 1-3hPa within 1 hour, and the gradient of transformation lines of the thunderstorm high pressure is smaller;
the thunderstorm high voltage formed by the hail thunderstorm system is the strongest, the maximum 1 hour positive voltage transformation is more than 3hPa, the gradient of the voltage transformation line of the thunderstorm high voltage is larger, and the thunderstorm high voltage is accompanied by strong wind weather;
the high thunderstorm voltage formed by a pure strong wind thunderstorm system is also strong, the positive voltage transformation is more than 3hPa in 1 hour, the gradient of the voltage transformation line of the high thunderstorm voltage is large, and the high thunderstorm voltage is accompanied by strong wake low voltage.
Preferably, the result of the strong convection weather nowcast includes: the type of disaster and the intensity of strong convective weather.
Preferably, the thunderstorm forecast result includes: the mobile spread of thunderstorms and the development of thunderstorms.
The application also provides a strong convection weather nowcasting system based on thunderstorm high pressure analysis, includes: the system comprises a historical information collection module, a characteristic analysis module, a relation analysis module, a real-time information processing module and a strong convection forecasting module;
the historical information collection module is used for collecting historical thunderstorm weather information and historical strong convection weather information;
the characteristic analysis module is used for analyzing the historical thunderstorm weather information based on weather radar reflectivity factors to obtain the thunderstorm high-pressure characteristics;
the relation analysis module is used for obtaining the characteristic relation between the thunderstorm high-pressure characteristic and a thunderstorm system and the strong convection weather by combining the historical strong convection weather information based on the thunderstorm high-pressure characteristic;
the real-time information processing module is used for acquiring and analyzing real-time thunderstorm weather information to obtain real-time thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics;
the strong convection forecast module is used for obtaining a thunderstorm system forecast result based on the characteristic relation and the real-time thunderstorm high-pressure characteristic, and obtaining a strong convection weather nowcasting result based on the thunderstorm system forecast result in combination with a weather radar reflectivity factor.
The beneficial effect of this application does:
the method and the system have high accuracy in qualitative forecast of thunderstorm system development and movement, have high reference value for nowcasting and early warning of strong convection weather, are very necessary in actual business forecast, and are favorable for improving the nowcasting and early warning level of the strong convection weather.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, the drawings required to be used in the embodiments are briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without inventive labor.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for forecasting weather proximity based on thunderstorm high pressure analysis according to the present application;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of the strong convection weather nowcasting system based on thunderstorm high-pressure analysis.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present application, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present application more comprehensible, the present application is described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and the detailed description.
Example one
In the first embodiment, taking 2016-2017 in the central south area of north and river as an example, as shown in fig. 1, a method for forecasting weather with strong convection based on thunderstorm high pressure analysis includes the following steps:
s1, collecting historical thunderstorm weather information and historical strong convection weather information; more than 30 strong convection weather processes and more than 600 times of thunderstorm high pressure information in the central and south area of north and river in 2016-2017 are collected.
And S2, analyzing historical thunderstorm weather information based on weather radar reflectivity factors to obtain historical thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics.
Each thunderstorm consists of 1 or several monomers. In the maturation stage of the monomer, because of the evaporation effect of water drops in the sinking air flow, the sinking air almost keeps a saturated state, so that the temperature of the sinking air is increased from the upper layer to the lower layer according to wet heat insulation, and the temperature rise rate is small; the temperature of the ascending air block is reduced according to dry heat insulation in the ascending process, so that the air is cooler than the air around the cloud bottom until the ground sinks, 1 cold air pile is formed below the thunderstorm monomer, the air pressure is higher, and the high pressure is the thunderstorm high pressure. From the definition of thunderstorm high pressure: thunderstorm high pressure has the characteristics of cold and high air pressure. The method for analyzing the one-hour transformation is adopted to analyze the thunderstorm high pressure, when thunderstorm weather occurs, the weather analysis system (swan or micaps and the like) is used for fixing time intervals, the air pressure difference between the thunderstorm high pressure and each preset meteorological observation station in the previous 1 hour is calculated, a 1-hour transformation contour line is drawn, the contour line is in a closed area, the area with large transformation is the thunderstorm high pressure, and the area with small transformation is the medium-scale low pressure. And the magnitude of the transformation is used for representing the intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure, and the larger the value of the center of the positive transformation is, the stronger the thunderstorm height is represented.
By analyzing 30 strong convection weather processes in the north-middle south area of the river of 2016-2017, 600 thunderstorm high voltages for a plurality of times, analyzing weather radar reflection factor rate data at the contract time, and utilizing a contour line analysis system (such as swan or microps commonly used in weather) to analyze a 1-hour variable voltage contour line, determining the thunderstorm high voltage, simultaneously displaying the weather radar reflection factor (mainly a combined reflection factor), and comparing images for a plurality of times, the thunderstorm high voltage is found to have the following characteristics: (1) The strength of the thunderstorm high pressure has a better corresponding relation with the combined reflectivity factor, and the ground thunderstorm high pressure formed by the system with the strong combined reflectivity factor is also strong. (2) The intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure has obvious daily change, which is similar to the daily change of the air pressure, and the combined reflectivity factors with the same intensity are different in intensity of the ground thunderstorm high pressure possibly formed at different time intervals in a day; (3) The intensity of the thunderstorm high voltage can be represented by the difference between the maximum transformation and the minimum transformation, so that the influence of daily change of the thunderstorm high voltage can be reduced.
S3, based on historical thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics, classifying the thunderstorm high voltages of more than 600 times according to the situations of the strong convection weather in more than 30 strong convection weather processes and more than 600 times of the thunderstorm high voltages in the middle and south regions of the Hebei in 2016-2017, and dividing the thunderstorm high voltages into 3 types of rainstorms (strong precipitation), thunderstorm strong winds, hailstones and the like to obtain the characteristic relation between the thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics and a thunderstorm system and the strong convection weather: (1) Thunderstorm high pressure formed by a rainstorm and heavy precipitation thunderstorm system is generally weaker, most of 1h positive pressure transformation is 1-3hPa, and the maximum 1h positive pressure transformation is 2.9hPa in the 6 times of rainstorm process. The gradient of a transformation line of the thunderstorm high voltage is small; (2) The thunderstorm high voltage formed by the hail thunderstorm system is the strongest, most of the maximum 1h positive voltage transformation is more than 3hPa, in the 4-time hail analysis process, the maximum 1h positive voltage transformation reaches more than ten hPa, the gradient of the transformation line of the thunderstorm high voltage is also larger, and the thunderstorm high voltage is accompanied by strong wind weather; (3) The thunderstorm high voltage formed by a pure storm system is also stronger, most of the 1h positive voltage transformation is larger than 3hPa, in the 8 times of thunderstorm high wind processes, the maximum 1h positive voltage transformation reaches 7hPa, the gradient of the transformation line of the thunderstorm high voltage is also larger, and stronger wake low voltage is accompanied.
And S4, collecting real-time thunderstorm weather information, analyzing by a 1-hour transformation analysis method to obtain real-time thunderstorm high-pressure characteristics, calculating the air pressure difference between the weather observation stations in the previous 1 hour by utilizing a weather analysis system at fixed time intervals, drawing a 1-hour transformation contour line, closing a contour line area, wherein an area with large transformation is thunderstorm high pressure, an area with small transformation is medium-scale low pressure, the intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure is represented by the size of the transformation, and the larger the value of a positive transformation center is, the stronger the thunderstorm high pressure is represented.
And S5, obtaining a thunderstorm system forecast result based on the characteristic relation and the real-time thunderstorm high-pressure characteristics, and obtaining a strong convection weather nowcasting result based on the thunderstorm system forecast result and the weather radar reflectivity factor.
The intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure is determined through the analysis of the real-time thunderstorm high pressure characteristics, the intensity, the mass center, the height and the like of radar reflectivity factors are analyzed, the disaster type of the strong convection weather is determined, and the result of the strong convection weather close forecast is obtained by mainly using strong precipitation, mainly using hail and strong wind weather and mainly using the intensity of the strong convection weather. For example, the intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure is only 3hPa, and the intensity of the radar reflectivity factor is 30-40dbz and the centroid is lower, so that the weather with strong rainfall can be predicted.
Based on the characteristic relation, the strength and the shape of the thunderstorm high pressure are determined through analysis of the thunderstorm high pressure, meanwhile, weather radar reflectivity factors (mainly combined reflectivity factors) are superposed and analyzed, and a forecast result of future enhancement, maintenance, weakening, movement, transmission and development of the thunderstorm weather system is obtained according to the direction of the major axis and the minor axis of the thunderstorm high pressure and the azimuth and distance of the strong weather radar reflectivity factors in the thunderstorm high pressure and by combining the weather radar reflectivity factors for analysis.
In general, the thunderstorm moves to the right in the direction of the average airflow of the middle and high layers (700 or 500 hPa), and the thunderstorm propagation is to the right. However, through the analysis of a plurality of thunderstorm systems, the shape of the thunderstorm high pressure is closely related to the movement and propagation of the thunderstorm: the thunderstorm is mostly propagated along the long axis or ridge of the thunderstorm high pressure, the propagation is jumping and discontinuous, and the new thunderstorm is always near the ridge of the thunderstorm high pressure. The movement of a thunderstorm is in the direction of the minor axis of the high pressure of the thunderstorm and is similar to the direction of the induced airflow. By utilizing the characteristics, the movement and the propagation of the thunderstorm can be accurately forecasted, the possible new generation of the thunderstorm is forecasted, and early warning is issued in advance.
Stronger thunderstorms are generally characterized by: there is mesoscale hot low pressure in the thunderstorm front, and the thunderstorm district is stronger thunderstorm high pressure, and there is mesoscale wake low pressure behind the thunderstorm, and the wake low pressure is also stronger. At the beginning of a thunderstorm, only hot low pressure and thunderstorm high pressure exist, the strongest echo center of the thunderstorm appears at the high pressure or the front side of the thunderstorm, the strongest echo center of the thunderstorm moves little or moves backwards along with the development of the thunderstorm, when the strongest echo center of the thunderstorm appears at the rear part of the thunderstorm high pressure, a convection system is weakened, and when the thunderstorm weakening disappears, the strongest echo center of the thunderstorm appears in wake low pressure. This is consistent with the fact that in radar meteorology, when the wind gust is far from the center of the thunderstorm, the thunderstorm will weaken. The development and death of the thunderstorm can be predicted according to the characteristics.
Example two
In the second embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, the present application further provides a strong convection weather nowcasting system based on thunderstorm high-voltage analysis, including: the system comprises a historical information collection module, a characteristic analysis module, a relation analysis module, a real-time information processing module and a strong convection forecasting module.
The historical information collection module is used for collecting historical thunderstorm weather information and historical strong convection weather information; more than 30 strong convection weather processes and more than 600 times of thunderstorm high pressure information in the central and south area of north and river in 2016-2017 are collected.
The characteristic analysis module is used for analyzing historical thunderstorm weather information based on weather radar reflectivity factors to obtain historical thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics. Each thunderstorm consists of 1 or several monomers. In the maturation stage of the monomer, because of the evaporation of water drops in the sinking air flow, the sinking air almost keeps a saturated state, so that the sinking air is heated from the upper layer to the lower layer according to wet heat insulation, and the heating rate is low; the temperature of the ascending air block is reduced according to dry heat insulation in the ascending process, so that the air is cooler than the air around the cloud bottom until the ground sinks, 1 cold air pile is formed below the thunderstorm monomer, the air pressure is higher, and the high pressure is the thunderstorm high pressure. From the definition of thunderstorm high pressure: thunderstorm high pressure has the characteristics of cold and high air pressure. The method for analyzing the one-hour transformation is adopted to analyze the thunderstorm high pressure, when thunderstorm weather occurs, the weather analysis system (swan or micaps and the like) is used for fixing time intervals, the air pressure difference between the thunderstorm high pressure and each preset meteorological observation station in the previous 1 hour is calculated, a 1-hour transformation contour line is drawn, the contour line is in a closed area, the area with large transformation is the thunderstorm high pressure, and the area with small transformation is the medium-scale low pressure. And the magnitude of the transformation is used for representing the intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure, and the larger the value of the center of the positive transformation is, the stronger the thunderstorm height is represented. Through analyzing more than 30 strong convection weather processes and more than 600 times of thunderstorm high voltage in 2016-2017 year Hebei middle and south areas, analyzing weather radar reflection factor rate data at the contract time, and utilizing a contour line analysis system (such as swan or microps and the like commonly used in weather) to analyze a 1-hour variable voltage contour line, determining the thunderstorm high voltage, simultaneously superposing and displaying the weather radar reflection factor (mainly a combined reflection factor), and comparing images of the multiple times, the method finds that the thunderstorm high voltage has the following characteristics: (1) The strength of the thunderstorm high pressure has a better corresponding relation with the combined reflectivity factor, and the ground thunderstorm high pressure formed by the system with the strong combined reflectivity factor is also strong. (2) The intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure has obvious daily change, which is similar to the daily change of the air pressure, and the combined reflectivity factors with the same intensity are different in intensity of the ground thunderstorm high pressure possibly formed at different time intervals in a day; (3) The intensity of the thunderstorm high voltage can be represented by the difference between the maximum transformation and the minimum transformation, so that the influence of daily change of the thunderstorm high voltage can be reduced.
The relation analysis module is used for classifying the thunderstorm high pressure of more than 600 times according to the scene of the occurrence of the strong convection weather through analyzing more than 30 strong convection weather processes and more than 600 times of the thunderstorm high pressure in the middle and south regions of the river and the north in 2016-2017 and classifying the thunderstorm high pressure of more than 600 times into 3 types of rainstorm (strong precipitation), thunderstorm strong wind, hail and the like based on the historical thunderstorm high pressure characteristics to obtain the characteristic relation between the thunderstorm high pressure characteristics and the thunderstorm system and the strong convection weather: (1) Thunderstorm high pressure formed by a rainstorm and heavy precipitation thunderstorm system is generally weaker, most of 1h positive pressure transformation is 1-3hPa, and the maximum 1h positive pressure transformation is 2.9hPa in the 6 times of rainstorm process. The gradient of a transformation line of the thunderstorm high voltage is also small; (2) The thunderstorm high voltage formed by the hail thunderstorm system is the strongest, most of the maximum 1h positive voltage transformation is more than 3hPa, in the 4-time hail analysis process, the maximum 1h positive voltage transformation reaches more than ten hPa, the gradient of the transformation line of the thunderstorm high voltage is also larger, and the thunderstorm high voltage is accompanied by strong wind weather; (3) The thunderstorm high pressure formed by the pure strong wind thunderstorm system is also strong, most of the 1h positive pressure transformation is larger than 3hPa, in the 8 times of thunderstorm strong wind processes, the maximum 1h positive pressure transformation reaches 7hPa, the gradient of the transformation line of the thunderstorm high pressure is also large, and the strong wake low pressure is accompanied.
The real-time information processing module is used for collecting real-time thunderstorm weather information, analyzing the real-time thunderstorm high-pressure characteristics by a 1-hour transformation analysis method, calculating the air pressure difference between the weather observation stations in the previous 1 hour by utilizing a weather analysis system at fixed time intervals, drawing a 1-hour transformation contour line, closing a contour line area, wherein an area with large transformation is thunderstorm high-pressure, an area with small transformation is medium-scale low-pressure, the transformation size represents the strength of the thunderstorm high-pressure, and the larger the value of a positive transformation center is, the stronger the representation of the thunderstorm high-pressure is.
And the strong convection forecast module is used for obtaining a thunderstorm system forecast result based on the characteristic relation and the real-time thunderstorm high-pressure characteristic, and obtaining a strong convection weather nowcasting result based on the thunderstorm system forecast result and the weather radar reflectivity factor. The intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure is determined through the analysis of the characteristics of the real-time thunderstorm high pressure, the intensity, the mass center, the height and the like of radar reflectivity factors are analyzed, the disaster type of strong convection weather is determined, the strong rainfall is dominant, the hail weather and the strong wind weather are dominant, and the intensity of the strong convection weather is dominant, so that the result of the close forecast of the strong convection weather is obtained. For example, the intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure is only 3hPa, and the intensity of the radar reflectivity factor is 30-40dbz and the centroid is lower, so that the weather with strong rainfall can be predicted. Based on the characteristic relation, the strength and the shape of the thunderstorm high pressure are determined through analysis of the thunderstorm high pressure, meanwhile, weather radar reflectivity factors (mainly combined reflectivity factors) are analyzed in a superposition mode, and the forecasting results of future enhancement, maintenance, weakening, movement, transmission and development of the thunderstorm weather system are obtained according to the direction of the major axis and the minor axis of the thunderstorm high pressure and the azimuth and distance of the strong weather radar reflectivity factors in the thunderstorm high pressure and through analysis in combination with the weather radar reflectivity factors.
In general, the thunderstorm moves to the right in the direction of the average airflow of the middle and high layers (700 or 500 hPa), and the thunderstorm propagation is to the right. However, through the analysis of a plurality of thunderstorm systems, the shape of the thunderstorm high pressure is closely related to the movement and propagation of the thunderstorm: the thunderstorm is mostly propagated along the long axis or ridge of the thunderstorm high pressure, the propagation is jumping and discontinuous, and the new thunderstorm is always near the ridge of the thunderstorm high pressure. The movement of a thunderstorm is in the direction of the minor axis of the high pressure of the thunderstorm and is similar to the direction of the induced airflow. By utilizing the characteristics, the movement and the propagation of the thunderstorm can be accurately forecasted, the possible new generation of the thunderstorm is forecasted, and early warning is issued in advance.
Stronger thunderstorms are generally characterized by: there is mesoscale hot low pressure in the thunderstorm front, and the thunderstorm district is stronger thunderstorm high pressure, and there is mesoscale wake low pressure behind the thunderstorm, and the wake low pressure is also stronger. At the beginning of a thunderstorm, only hot low pressure and thunderstorm high pressure exist, the strongest echo center of the thunderstorm appears at the high pressure or the front side of the thunderstorm, the strongest echo center of the thunderstorm moves little or moves backwards along with the development of the thunderstorm, when the strongest echo center of the thunderstorm appears at the rear part of the thunderstorm high pressure, a convection system is weakened, and when the thunderstorm weakening disappears, the strongest echo center of the thunderstorm appears in wake low pressure. This is consistent with the fact that in radar meteorology, when the wind gust is far from the center of the thunderstorm, the thunderstorm will weaken. According to the characteristics, the development and death of the thunderstorm can be predicted.
The above-described embodiments are merely illustrative of the preferred embodiments of the present application, and do not limit the scope of the present application, and various modifications and improvements made to the technical solutions of the present application by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit of the present application should fall within the protection scope defined by the claims of the present application.
Claims (8)
1. The method for forecasting the weather proximity of strong convection based on thunderstorm high-pressure analysis is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, collecting historical thunderstorm weather information and historical strong convection weather information;
s2, analyzing the historical thunderstorm weather information based on weather radar reflectivity factors to obtain historical thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics;
s3, obtaining the characteristic relation between the thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics and a thunderstorm system and the strong convection weather by combining the historical strong convection weather information based on the historical thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics;
s4, collecting and analyzing real-time thunderstorm weather information to obtain real-time thunderstorm high-pressure characteristics;
and S5, obtaining a thunderstorm system forecast result based on the characteristic relation and the real-time thunderstorm high-pressure characteristics, and obtaining a strong convection weather nowcasting result based on the thunderstorm system forecast result in combination with a weather radar reflectivity factor.
2. The method for weather nowcasting with strong convection based on thunderstorm high pressure analysis as claimed in claim 1, wherein the method for analyzing the historical thunderstorm high pressure characteristics and the real-time thunderstorm characteristics comprises: and (4) performing characteristic analysis on the thunderstorm high pressure by adopting a 1-hour pressure swing analysis method.
3. The thunderstorm high pressure analysis-based strong convection weather nowcasting method of claim 2, wherein the 1-hour transformer analysis method comprises: the weather analysis system is used for fixing time intervals, calculating the air pressure difference between the weather observation stations in the previous 1 hour, drawing a 1-hour transformation contour line, closing the contour line area, wherein the area with large transformation is thunderstorm high pressure, the area with small transformation is mesoscale low pressure, the intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure is represented by the size of the transformation, and the larger the value of the positive transformation center is, the stronger the representation of the thunderstorm high pressure is.
4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the analysis result of the thunderstorm high pressure characteristics comprises:
the strength of the thunderstorm high pressure has a better corresponding relation with the radar reflectivity factor, and the ground thunderstorm high pressure formed by the system with the strong radar reflectivity factor is strong;
the intensity of the thunderstorm high pressure has obvious daily change, and the radar reflectivity factors with the same intensity have different intensities when the radar reflectivity factors appear in different time periods in a day to form ground thunderstorm high pressure;
the intensity of the thunderstorm high voltage is represented by the difference between the maximum transformation voltage and the minimum transformation voltage.
5. The thunderstorm high pressure analysis-based strong convection weather nowcasting method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the characteristic relationship comprises:
thunderstorm high pressure formed by a rainstorm and heavy precipitation thunderstorm system is weaker, the positive transformation pressure is 1-3hPa within 1 hour, and the gradient of transformation lines of the thunderstorm high pressure is smaller;
the thunderstorm high voltage formed by the hail thunderstorm system is the strongest, the maximum 1 hour positive voltage transformation is more than 3hPa, the gradient of the voltage transformation line of the thunderstorm high voltage is larger, and the thunderstorm high voltage is accompanied by strong wind weather;
the high thunderstorm voltage formed by a pure strong wind thunderstorm system is also strong, the positive voltage transformation is more than 3hPa in 1 hour, the gradient of the voltage transformation line of the high thunderstorm voltage is large, and the high thunderstorm voltage is accompanied by strong wake low voltage.
6. The thunderstorm high pressure analysis-based strong convection weather nowcast method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the strong convection weather nowcast result comprises: the type of disaster and the intensity of strong convective weather.
7. The thunderstorm high pressure analysis-based strong convection weather nowcasting method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the thunderstorm forecast result comprises: the mobile spread of thunderstorms and the development of thunderstorms.
8. Strong convection weather nowcasting system based on thunderstorm high pressure analysis, its characterized in that includes: the system comprises a historical information collection module, a characteristic analysis module, a relation analysis module, a real-time information processing module and a strong convection forecasting module;
the historical information collection module is used for collecting historical thunderstorm weather information and historical strong convection weather information;
the characteristic analysis module is used for analyzing the historical thunderstorm weather information based on weather radar reflectivity factors to obtain the thunderstorm high-pressure characteristics;
the relation analysis module is used for obtaining the characteristic relation between the thunderstorm high-pressure characteristic and a thunderstorm system and the strong convection weather by combining the historical strong convection weather information based on the thunderstorm high-pressure characteristic;
the real-time information processing module is used for acquiring and analyzing real-time thunderstorm weather information to obtain real-time thunderstorm high-voltage characteristics;
the strong convection forecast module is used for obtaining a thunderstorm system forecast result based on the characteristic relation and the real-time thunderstorm high-pressure characteristic, and obtaining a strong convection weather nowcasting result based on the thunderstorm system forecast result in combination with a weather radar reflectivity factor.
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