CN115186959A - Ocean wave risk assessment method for ocean scientific investigation - Google Patents

Ocean wave risk assessment method for ocean scientific investigation Download PDF

Info

Publication number
CN115186959A
CN115186959A CN202210512970.4A CN202210512970A CN115186959A CN 115186959 A CN115186959 A CN 115186959A CN 202210512970 A CN202210512970 A CN 202210512970A CN 115186959 A CN115186959 A CN 115186959A
Authority
CN
China
Prior art keywords
wave
sea
risk
sea wave
event
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Pending
Application number
CN202210512970.4A
Other languages
Chinese (zh)
Inventor
曹磊
康林冲
赵龙飞
宋恩辉
孟繁超
姜晓轶
刘金
吕憧憬
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
NATIONAL MARINE DATA AND INFORMATION SERVICE
Original Assignee
NATIONAL MARINE DATA AND INFORMATION SERVICE
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by NATIONAL MARINE DATA AND INFORMATION SERVICE filed Critical NATIONAL MARINE DATA AND INFORMATION SERVICE
Priority to CN202210512970.4A priority Critical patent/CN115186959A/en
Publication of CN115186959A publication Critical patent/CN115186959A/en
Pending legal-status Critical Current

Links

Images

Classifications

    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0635Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/16Matrix or vector computation, e.g. matrix-matrix or matrix-vector multiplication, matrix factorization
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • G06Q10/06393Score-carding, benchmarking or key performance indicator [KPI] analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/10Services
    • G06Q50/26Government or public services
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02ATECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02A90/00Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
    • Y02A90/10Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation

Landscapes

  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
  • Educational Administration (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Mathematical Physics (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Computational Mathematics (AREA)
  • Data Mining & Analysis (AREA)
  • Quality & Reliability (AREA)
  • Mathematical Analysis (AREA)
  • Mathematical Optimization (AREA)
  • Operations Research (AREA)
  • Pure & Applied Mathematics (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
  • General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Databases & Information Systems (AREA)
  • Software Systems (AREA)
  • General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Algebra (AREA)
  • Primary Health Care (AREA)
  • Computing Systems (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)

Abstract

The invention provides a sea wave risk assessment method for marine scientific investigation, which comprises the following steps: s1, defining a multi-stage sea wave event and parameters; s2, carrying out risk analysis on the multi-stage sea wave event to obtain a multi-stage sea wave risk index; s3, performing vulnerability analysis on the investigation operation to obtain an investigation operation vulnerability index; and S4, carrying out comprehensive risk assessment on the sea waves based on indexes of multi-stage sea wave dangerousness and investigation operation vulnerability. The invention comprehensively considers the sea wave event danger and the ocean scientific investigation vulnerability, constructs a multistage sea wave event danger evaluation index system from three aspects of sea wave strength, occurrence frequency and duration, can comprehensively, scientifically and objectively evaluate the influence degree of sea waves on ocean scientific investigation, and provides effective support for business work such as investigation station design, operation window period planning, air route planning and the like.

Description

Ocean wave risk assessment method for ocean scientific investigation
Technical Field
The invention belongs to an ocean wave risk assessment method, and particularly relates to an ocean wave risk assessment method for ocean scientific investigation.
Background
In recent years, with the increase of the strategic position of the ocean, the ocean science and technology are rapidly developed, the scope of marine resource exploration and marine environment investigation is also expanded from the offshore to the global oceans and bipolar areas, the complexity and the risk of marine scientific investigation operation are increased, and compared with other marine environment factors, the influence of sea waves on the scientific investigation is the greatest. Generally, in order to obtain accurate measurement data and ensure the safety of personnel and instruments, wave risk assessment work is carried out in advance, survey stations and operation window periods are reasonably planned, an optimal air route and an optimal operation plan are formulated, the safe and economic navigation of a ship is guaranteed, and scientific investigation activities are carried out safely and efficiently.
In view of the economic losses and activity impacts that may be brought about by ocean wave events, many scholars have conducted ocean wave risk assessment research. Shen Youli and the like are combined with Guangxi northern seaport Dan Bu ridge harbor area coast defense engineering projects, the theoretical maximum value of a wave element obtained by calculation of the SWAN model is compared with a design value, risks caused by sea waves are evaluated, and the risk conditions of the existing wharf and protective engineering shore sections are obtained; li Xue and Yin Chaodeng calculate typhoon wave height distribution of Shandong and Hainan coastal areas for many years by utilizing extreme statistical models such as Poisson-lognormal distribution and P-III type distribution, and provide reference basis for disaster prevention and reduction and ocean engineering design of coastal provinces and cities; based on historical data of 409 extreme sea wave events in the coastal region of the Caribbean sea in the past 30 years, N.G.Ranell-Buitrago and the like comprehensively evaluate the influence of the extreme sea wave events from the aspects of coastal erosion, social economy, ecological environment, cultural heritage and the like in the coastal region, and draw a risk level graph of a coastline.
According to the research results, the current research method for evaluating the sea wave risk mainly utilizes a wave extreme value distribution theory to calculate the extreme value of a recurrent period for many years, the influence main body is ocean engineering in coastal areas, ocean scientific investigation is different from ocean engineering, extreme sea waves are naturally harmful, common sea waves can also have certain influence on the checking operation, and the extreme value distribution theory is not suitable for the sea wave risk evaluation method. In addition, the degrees of the sea waves which can be borne by different main bodies are different, the vulnerability of the main bodies directly influences the sea wave risk evaluation result, and the existing research only considers the attributes of the sea waves, such as wave height, period and the like, and lacks the analysis of the attribute indexes of the main bodies influenced by the sea waves.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a sea wave risk assessment method facing marine scientific research, which comprehensively considers sea wave risks and vulnerability of marine scientific research operation, constructs and forms a multi-stage sea wave event risk assessment index system, provides a sea scientific research operation vulnerability analysis method, establishes a sea wave comprehensive risk assessment model, can comprehensively and scientifically assess the influence of sea waves on marine scientific research operation, and provides support for station position design, window period and voyage number planning of investigation.
As conceived above, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows: a sea wave risk assessment method facing ocean scientific investigation is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, defining a multi-stage sea wave event and parameters;
s2, carrying out risk analysis on the multi-stage sea wave event to obtain a multi-stage sea wave risk index;
s3, performing vulnerability analysis on the survey operation to obtain a survey operation vulnerability index;
and S4, carrying out comprehensive risk assessment on the sea waves based on indexes of multi-stage sea wave dangerousness and investigation operation vulnerability.
Preferably, the wave event attributes of step S1 include three physical parameters of wave intensity, frequency of occurrence and duration.
Preferably, in the step S1, the wave event is defined as L levels according to the difference of the effective wave height of the wave, so as to form a multi-level wave event.
Preferably, the multi-stage wave events are from stage 1 to stage L, and the effective wave heights are reduced in sequence, as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 Multi-stage sea wave event rating Table
Figure BDA0003640204820000021
Figure BDA0003640204820000031
Preferably, the step S2 includes the steps of:
i) establishing a multistage sea wave event risk index factor set U by using a data statistical method i = { average wave intensity over many years and months S i Average frequency of occurrence over many years and months N i Mean duration of many years and months T i H, wherein i represents a wave event level;
ii) index factor numerical value calculation, determining three index factors of the frequency, duration and intensity of the sea waves of the grid points p (x, y) based on the historical sea wave grid data of the long-time sequence, and solving by the following formula:
Figure BDA0003640204820000032
Figure BDA0003640204820000033
Figure BDA0003640204820000034
in the formula: n is a radical of i (x, y) represents the position point p of the latitude and longitude coordinates x, y within the m-month period, and the average number of occurrences of the ith stage of ocean wave event in a monthCounting; t is i (x, y) represents a position point p of latitude and longitude coordinates x, y and the average duration of the ith-level sea wave event month within the m-month period; s. the i (x, y) represents a position point p of latitude and longitude coordinates x and y and the average effective wave height of the ith-level sea wave event month in an m-month period;
iii) determining weight coefficients of wave events at all levels based on an analytic hierarchy process, constructing a judgment matrix in a hierarchy, and calculating a maximum characteristic value lambda of the judgment matrix max And the corresponding characteristic vector, and the consistency index CI and the consistency ratio CR of the check judgment matrix are respectively calculated by the following formulas:
Figure BDA0003640204820000035
Figure BDA0003640204820000036
in the formula (4), n is the index number, in the formula (5), RI can be obtained by looking up the table, when CR is<When the sum of the feature vectors is 0.1, the judgment matrix is considered to have satisfactory consistency, otherwise, the judgment matrix needs to be adjusted, and finally, on the premise of passing consistency check, the feature vector corresponding to the maximum feature value is normalized to obtain the weight vector [ omega ] 1 ω 2 … ω i ];
Iv) calculating a sea wave event risk index matrix, carrying out risk analysis on the multi-stage sea wave event, and calculating to obtain a mesh point p (x, y) sea wave risk index matrix according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003640204820000041
in the formula, hazard (x, y) is a 1*L order wave danger index matrix, L is a wave event series, and omega is i Is a weight coefficient, S, of the ith-level sea wave event i Is a wave intensity statistic, N, of an i-th wave event i Is a statistical value of the frequency of occurrence of the i-th-level wave event, T i Is as followsA statistical value of the duration of i-level sea wave events.
Preferably, the step S3 includes the steps of:
the influence degree grade of the marine scientific investigation operation is divided into 4 grades, and the influence degree grade of the investigation operation by sea waves is divided into the following steps from low to high: slight influence, medium influence, serious influence and catastrophic influence, and the grade of the influenced degree is quantitatively evaluated by adopting an A-E grading evaluation index, which is shown in a table 2:
TABLE 2 ocean scientific investigation operation sea wave influence degree grading table
Figure BDA0003640204820000042
Figure BDA0003640204820000051
Ii) calculating a vulnerability index matrix of the marine scientific investigation operation, dividing standards according to the levels of the influenced degrees of the marine scientific investigation operation, obtaining the influenced degrees of the investigation operation in all levels of sea wave events according to the sea wave adaptability of the investigation operation, assigning values, and forming the vulnerability index matrix of the investigation operation, which can be expressed by a formula (7):
Figure BDA0003640204820000052
wherein vulnerability is the vulnerability index matrix of the survey, v i The vulnerability index in the i-th level event for a certain type of survey job, the greater the index score, the greater the vulnerability.
Preferably, in the step S4, the sea wave risk result is multiplied by the vulnerability result of scientific investigation operation, and normalization processing is performed to obtain a sea wave comprehensive risk value of the investigation sea area, which is calculated by the following formula:
risk=Hazard*vulnerability (8)
in the formula, risk represents the wave risk index in the survey sea area, the value range is 0-1, the higher the value is, the higher the risk is, the risk is divided into 4 grades of high risk, medium risk and low risk, the risk colors are respectively marked as red, orange, yellow and blue, the risk grade division and the index value range thereof are shown in table 3,
TABLE 3 sea wave comprehensive risk grade table
Figure BDA0003640204820000053
The invention provides a sea wave risk analysis method facing oceanographic scientific research, which comprehensively considers the risk of a sea wave event and the vulnerability of a main body influenced by the sea wave, constructs and forms a multi-stage sea wave event risk evaluation index system from three aspects of sea wave generation frequency, duration and strength, calculates to obtain a sea wave risk index, simultaneously carries out quantitative analysis on the vulnerability of oceanographic scientific research operation, calculates to obtain a survey operation vulnerability index, and finally constructs a sea wave comprehensive risk evaluation model by combining the sea wave risk and survey operation vulnerability analysis results to complete sea wave risk grade division, thereby providing effective support for the business works such as design of a marine scientific research station, planning of an operation window period, planning of a course and the like.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the operation of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of a multi-stage wave event and parameters of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a process flow diagram of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a chart of the ocean astronaut sea and its surrounding sea area sea wave risk level zoning of the present invention.
Detailed Description
Referring to fig. 1-3, the invention provides a sea wave risk assessment method facing marine scientific investigation, comprising the following steps:
s1, defining a multi-stage sea wave event and parameters: according to the difference of the effective wave height of the sea wave, defining the sea wave event into L levels to form a multi-level sea wave event, wherein the effective wave height is reduced from level 1 to level L in sequence, as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 multistage surf event grade table
Figure BDA0003640204820000061
The sea wave event attributes comprise three physical parameters of sea wave generation frequency, duration and intensity, the sea wave generation frequency refers to the frequency of the sea wave events of all levels in one period, and in the graph (2), the frequency and the numerical value in the graph represent that the frequency of the II-level events in the 1 st month is 2; the wave duration refers to the duration of wave events of various levels in a period, as shown in fig. 2, wherein the duration and the numerical value thereof indicate that the duration of the III-level events in the 1 st month is t hours; sea wave intensity refers to the average of the effective wave height of each level of sea wave events in a period.
S2, carrying out risk analysis on the multi-stage sea wave event to obtain a multi-stage sea wave risk index, and comprising the following steps:
i) establishing a sea wave risk index factor set. The factor set is a set consisting of all levels of dangerous ocean wave event factors influencing an evaluation object, and all levels of ocean wave event index factor sets U are established by utilizing a data statistical method i = { average sea wave intensity S of many years and months i Average frequency of occurrence N of many years and months i Mean duration of many years and months T i I denotes the sea event level, as shown in table 2:
TABLE 1 multistage surf hazard index factor set
Figure BDA0003640204820000071
And ii) calculating index factor values. Based on historical sea wave grid data of a long-time sequence, calculating index factor values of sea wave events at all levels, wherein the annual average frequency, annual average duration and annual average intensity of grid points p (x, y) can be obtained by the following formulas:
Figure BDA0003640204820000072
Figure BDA0003640204820000073
Figure BDA0003640204820000081
in the formula: n is a radical of i (x, y) represents the position point p of the latitude and longitude coordinates x, y and the average occurrence number of the ith stage sea wave event in the m-month period; t is a unit of i (x, y) represents a position point p of latitude and longitude coordinates x, y and the average duration of the ith-level sea wave event month within the m-month period; s i (x, y) represents the position point p of the latitude and longitude coordinates x, y and the average effective wave height of the ith-level sea wave event month in the m-month period.
And iii) determining weight coefficients of wave events at all levels based on an analytic hierarchy process. Constructing a judgment matrix in the hierarchy, and calculating the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix max And the corresponding characteristic vector, and the consistency index CI and the consistency ratio CR of the check judgment matrix are respectively calculated by the following formulas:
Figure BDA0003640204820000082
Figure BDA0003640204820000083
in the formula (4), n is the index number, in the formula (5), RI can be obtained by looking up the table, when CR is<When the sum of the feature vectors is 0.1, the judgment matrix is considered to have satisfactory consistency, otherwise, the judgment matrix needs to be adjusted, and finally, on the premise of passing consistency check, the feature vector corresponding to the maximum feature value is normalized to obtain the weight vector [ omega ] (omega) 1 ω 2 … ω i ];
Iv) calculating a sea wave event risk index matrix. And (3) carrying out risk analysis on the multi-stage wave events, and calculating a grid point p (x, y) wave risk index matrix by using the following formula:
Figure BDA0003640204820000084
in the formula, hazard (x, y) is a 1*L order wave danger index matrix, L is a wave event series, and omega is i Is a weight coefficient of the i-th level of a sea event, S i Is a wave intensity statistic, N, of an i-th wave event i Is a statistical value of the frequency of occurrence of the i-th-level wave event, T i Is a statistical value of the duration of the i-th stage wave event.
S3, performing vulnerability analysis on the investigation operation to obtain an investigation operation vulnerability index, and comprising the following steps of:
and i) grading the influence degree of the marine scientific investigation operation. The method comprises the following steps of dividing the level of the influence degree of sea waves on investigation operation into 4 levels, sequentially from low to high: slight influence, medium influence, serious influence and catastrophic influence, and the grade of the influenced degree is quantitatively evaluated by adopting A-E grading evaluation indexes, which are shown in Table 3:
TABLE 3 ocean scientific investigation operation sea wave influence degree grading table
Figure BDA0003640204820000091
And ii) calculating the vulnerability index matrix of the marine scientific investigation operation. According to the influence degree grade division standard of the marine scientific investigation operation, the influence degree of the investigation operation in each grade of wave event is obtained and assigned according to the wave adaptability of the investigation operation, and an investigation operation vulnerability index matrix is formed and can be represented by a formula (7):
Figure BDA0003640204820000092
wherein, vulnerability is a sea operation vulnerability index matrix, v i For the index of vulnerability of offshore operations at the ith event, the greater the index score, the greater the vulnerability.
S4, carrying out comprehensive sea wave risk assessment based on the index matrix of the multilevel sea wave danger and the survey operation vulnerability, and comprising the following steps of:
multiplying the sea wave danger result and the scientific investigation operation vulnerability result, and performing normalization processing to obtain a sea wave comprehensive risk value of the investigation sea area, wherein the sea wave comprehensive risk value is calculated by the following formula:
risk=Hazard*vulnerability (8)
in the formula, risk represents the wave risk index in the survey sea area, the value range is 0-1, the larger the value is, the stronger the risk is, the risk grade is divided into 4 grades of high risk, medium risk and low risk, the risk colors are respectively marked as red, orange, yellow and blue, and the risk grade division and the color marking are shown in table 4:
TABLE 4 sea wave comprehensive risk grade table
Figure BDA0003640204820000101
Taking the south ocean astronaut sea as an example, the relevant flow of the attached figure 1 is further explained. The examples are provided for the purpose of illustration only and are not intended to be limiting.
Step S1: multi-stage wave event and parameter definition
According to the size of the effective wave height, the wave event is defined into 4 levels, and a multi-level wave event is formed. As shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 Multi-stage sea wave event rating Table
Figure BDA0003640204820000102
Step S2: performing risk analysis on the multi-stage sea wave event to obtain a multi-stage sea wave risk index
I) establishing a multistage sea wave risk index factor set. Factors of the factThe set is a set consisting of all levels of dangerous wave event factors influencing an evaluation object, and a data statistical method is utilized to establish all levels of wave event index factor sets U i = { average wave intensity over many years and months S i Average frequency of occurrence over many years and months N i Mean duration of many years and months T i I denotes the sea event level, as shown in table 2:
TABLE 2 multistage surf hazard index factor set
Figure BDA0003640204820000111
And ii) calculating index factor values. The fifth generation of atmospheric-marine re-analysis product ERA5, which is newly introduced by the european mid-term weather forecast center (ECMWF), is a comprehensive global data product, provides an hourly data set of high-resolution global atmospheric, terrestrial, marine, etc. climate variables, and is an upgraded version of the very popular ERA-Interim re-analysis product. This patent chooses ERA5 to reanalyze the mixed wave field data set in the product, and its horizontal grid resolution reaches 0.5 degree x 0.5, and time resolution reaches 1 hour, compares with the wave data set of ERA-intermim product, and ERA 5's space-time resolution is higher. The ERA5 wave data set manufacturing method is mature, has good performance, and can provide a scientific and accurate data source for the patent.
Using 20 years and 240 months as a calculation period, the method can be obtained by the formulas (1), (2) and (3) to investigate any position point P (x) in the sea area o ,y o ) In 20 years of 2000-2020, the monthly-year average occurrence frequency N, the monthly-year average duration T and the monthly-year average sea wave intensity S of grade 1, grade 2, grade 3 and grade 4 sea wave events can be obtained by the following formulas:
Figure BDA0003640204820000112
Figure BDA0003640204820000113
Figure BDA0003640204820000121
where i represents an i-th order ocean wave event.
And iii) determining weight coefficients of wave events at all levels based on an analytic hierarchy process.
As shown in Table 3, a judgment matrix is first constructed, the relative importance of events at each level is compared, and the maximum eigenvalue λ is calculated max =4.0078, agreement index CI =0.0026, RI =0.89 by table lookup, random agreement ratio CR = CI/RI =0.003<0.1, passing the consistency test. Normalizing the eigenvector of the maximum eigenvalue to obtain a weight vector w = [0.53 0.26 0.14.07] T
TABLE 3 event level weight vector calculation
Figure BDA0003640204820000122
Iv) calculating a sea wave event risk index matrix. Carrying out risk analysis on the multi-stage wave event, and investigating any position point P (x) in the sea area o ,y o ) The sea wave risk index matrix can be calculated by the following formula:
Figure BDA0003640204820000123
in the formula, hazard (x, y) is a sea wave danger index matrix of an arbitrary position point P, and the larger the value is, the stronger the danger is; omega i Is a weight coefficient, S, of the ith-level sea wave event i Is the statistical value of the intensity of the i-th-level wave event, N i Is a statistical value of the frequency of occurrence of the i-th-level wave event, T i Is a statistical value of the duration of the i-th stage wave event.
And step S3: performing vulnerability analysis on the investigation operation to obtain the vulnerability index of the investigation operation
And i) grading the influence degree of the marine scientific investigation operation. The level of the affected degree of the survey operation is divided into 4 levels, and the following are sequentially performed from low to high: slight influence, medium influence, serious influence and catastrophic influence, and the degree of influence is quantitatively evaluated by adopting 0-10 grading evaluation indexes, and the evaluation indexes are shown in a table 4:
table 4 influence degree rating table for marine scientific investigation work
Figure BDA0003640204820000131
And ii) calculating a vulnerability index matrix of the marine scientific investigation operation. The marine scientific investigation operation means mainly comprises various modes such as CTD topside water collection operation, CTD moon pool water collection operation, sediment column sampling operation, sediment box/multi-pipe sampling operation, sediment gravity column sampling operation, plankton multi-networking operation, plankton topside vertical trawl operation and the like. The CTD moon pool water collection operation is selected as a typical investigation operation mode, the influence degree of the investigation operation on sea waves in sea wave events of various levels is quantitatively evaluated according to a table 4, and the result is shown in a table 5:
TABLE 5 Table for assigning values of sea wave influence degree to CTD moon pool water-mining operation
Figure BDA0003640204820000132
Figure BDA0003640204820000141
According to the evaluation result of the influenced degree, a vulnerability index matrix vulnerability of the water mining operation of the CTD moon pool can be obtained, as shown in a formula (5):
Figure BDA0003640204820000142
and step S4: comprehensive sea wave risk assessment is carried out based on indexes of multi-stage sea wave dangerousness and investigation operation vulnerability
Comprehensively considering the multi-level sea wave dangerousness and the vulnerability of marine scientific investigation operation, multiplying the sea wave dangerousness result of the sea area grid point P investigation by the vulnerability result of certain scientific investigation operation according to a formula (6), and carrying out normalization processing to obtain the comprehensive risk value of the scientific investigation operation at the sea area grid point P investigation.
risk(x,y)=Hazard(x,y)*vulnerability (6)
The risk value of all grid points in the sea area is investigated and can be obtained by the formula (7).
Figure BDA0003640204820000143
And drawing a sea wave risk grade division diagram according to the sea wave risk index obtained by calculation and a sea wave comprehensive risk grade table, as shown in the attached figure 4.
The above-mentioned embodiments only express the specific embodiments of the present application, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the present application. It should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, without departing from the technical idea of the present application, several changes and modifications can be made, which are all within the protection scope of the present application.

Claims (6)

1. A sea wave risk assessment method facing ocean scientific investigation is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, defining a multi-stage sea wave event and parameters;
s2, carrying out risk analysis on the multi-stage sea wave event to obtain a multi-stage sea wave risk index;
s3, performing vulnerability analysis on the investigation operation to obtain an investigation operation vulnerability index;
and S4, carrying out comprehensive risk assessment on the sea waves based on indexes of multi-stage sea wave dangerousness and investigation operation vulnerability.
2. The ocean wave risk assessment method facing ocean scientific investigation according to claim 1, characterized in that: the wave event attributes of the step S1 comprise three physical parameters of wave intensity, frequency of occurrence and duration.
3. The ocean wave risk assessment method facing ocean scientific investigation according to claim 1, characterized in that: in the step S1, according to the difference of the effective wave heights of the sea waves, the sea wave event is defined as L levels to form a multi-level sea wave event, and the effective wave heights of the multi-level sea wave event are sequentially reduced from level 1 to level L, as shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 Multi-stage sea wave event rating Table
Figure FDA0003640204810000011
4. A sea wave risk assessment method facing oceanographic scientific investigation according to claim 1, characterized in that: the step S2 includes the steps of:
i) establishing a multistage sea wave event risk index factor set U by using a data statistical method i = { average wave intensity over many years and months S i Average frequency of occurrence over many years and months N i Mean duration of many years and months T i H, wherein i represents a wave event level;
ii) index factor numerical calculation, determining three index factors of the frequency, duration and intensity of the sea waves of the grid points p (x, y) based on the historical sea wave grid data of the long-time sequence, and solving by the following formula:
Figure FDA0003640204810000021
Figure FDA0003640204810000022
Figure FDA0003640204810000023
in the formula: n is a radical of i (x, y) represents a position point p of latitude and longitude coordinates x and y and the average occurrence number of the ith-level sea wave events in a month period of m months; t is i (x, y) represents a position point p of latitude and longitude coordinates x, y within the m-month period, and the average duration of the ith stage of the ocean wave event month; s i (x, y) represents a position point p of latitude and longitude coordinates x and y and the average effective wave height of the ith-level sea wave event month in an m-month period;
iii) determining the weight coefficient of each stage of sea wave event based on an analytic hierarchy process, constructing a judgment matrix in a hierarchy, and calculating the maximum characteristic value lambda of the judgment matrix max And the corresponding characteristic vector, and the consistency index CI and the consistency ratio CR of the check judgment matrix are respectively calculated by the following formulas:
Figure FDA0003640204810000024
Figure FDA0003640204810000025
in formula (4), n is the number of indexes, in formula (5), RI can be obtained by table lookup, when CR is<When the sum of the feature vectors is 0.1, the judgment matrix is considered to have satisfactory consistency, otherwise, the judgment matrix needs to be adjusted, and finally, on the premise of passing consistency check, the feature vector corresponding to the maximum feature value is normalized to obtain the weight vector [ omega ] (omega) 1 ω 2 …ω i ];
Iv) calculating a sea wave event risk index matrix, carrying out risk analysis on the multi-stage sea wave event, and calculating to obtain a mesh point p (x, y) sea wave risk index matrix according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003640204810000031
in the formula, hazard (x, y) is a 1*L order wave danger index matrix, L is a wave event series, and omega is i Is a weight coefficient of the i-th level of a sea event, S i Is a wave intensity statistic, N, of an i-th wave event i Is a statistical value of the frequency of occurrence of the i-th-level wave event, T i Is a statistical value of the duration of the i-th stage wave event.
5. A sea wave risk assessment method facing oceanographic scientific investigation according to claim 1, characterized in that: the step S3 includes the steps of:
the influence degree grade of the marine scientific investigation operation is divided into 4 grades, and the influence degree grade of the investigation operation by sea waves is divided into the following steps from low to high: slight influence, medium influence, serious influence and catastrophic influence, and the grade of the influenced degree is quantitatively evaluated by adopting an A-E grading evaluation index, which is shown in a table 2:
TABLE 2 ocean scientific investigation operation ocean wave influence degree grading table
Figure FDA0003640204810000032
Ii) calculating a vulnerability index matrix of the marine scientific investigation operation, dividing standards according to the levels of the influenced degrees of the marine scientific investigation operation, obtaining the influenced degrees of the investigation operation in all levels of sea wave events according to the sea wave adaptability of the investigation operation, assigning values, and forming the vulnerability index matrix of the investigation operation, which can be expressed by a formula (7):
Figure FDA0003640204810000041
wherein vulnerability is the vulnerability index matrix of the survey, v i The vulnerability index in the i-th level event for a certain type of survey job, the greater the index score, the greater the vulnerability.
6. The ocean wave risk assessment method facing ocean scientific investigation according to claim 1, characterized in that: and S4, multiplying the sea wave danger result and the scientific investigation operation vulnerability result, and performing normalization processing to obtain a sea wave comprehensive risk value of the investigation sea area, wherein the sea wave comprehensive risk value is obtained by calculating according to the following formula:
risk=Hazard*vulnerability (8)
in the formula, risk represents the wave risk index in the survey sea area, the value range is 0-1, the greater the value is, the stronger the risk is, the risk grade is divided into 4 grades of extremely high risk, medium risk and low risk, the risk colors are respectively marked as red, orange, yellow and blue, the risk grade division and the index value range thereof are shown in table 3,
TABLE 3 sea wave comprehensive risk grade table
Figure FDA0003640204810000042
CN202210512970.4A 2022-05-12 2022-05-12 Ocean wave risk assessment method for ocean scientific investigation Pending CN115186959A (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN202210512970.4A CN115186959A (en) 2022-05-12 2022-05-12 Ocean wave risk assessment method for ocean scientific investigation

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN202210512970.4A CN115186959A (en) 2022-05-12 2022-05-12 Ocean wave risk assessment method for ocean scientific investigation

Publications (1)

Publication Number Publication Date
CN115186959A true CN115186959A (en) 2022-10-14

Family

ID=83513960

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
CN202210512970.4A Pending CN115186959A (en) 2022-05-12 2022-05-12 Ocean wave risk assessment method for ocean scientific investigation

Country Status (1)

Country Link
CN (1) CN115186959A (en)

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN115564311A (en) * 2022-11-10 2023-01-03 国家海洋局南海预报中心(国家海洋局广州海洋预报台) Sea wave disaster risk assessment and division method and system

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN115564311A (en) * 2022-11-10 2023-01-03 国家海洋局南海预报中心(国家海洋局广州海洋预报台) Sea wave disaster risk assessment and division method and system

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
CN109243205B (en) Coastal water traffic safety risk monitoring and early warning system and method
de León et al. Extreme wave parameters under North Atlantic extratropical cyclones
Dallman et al. Characterization of US Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Test Sites: A Catalogue of Met-Ocean Data.
CN110377674A (en) A kind of Typhoon Storm Surge Over methods of risk assessment and system based on ArcGIS platform
Batjes Global assessment of land vulnerability to water erosion on a ½ by ½ grid
CN113554345B (en) Earthquake landslide disaster area and disaster chain risk assessment method
CN112434948B (en) Marine salvage operation marine environment risk assessment system
CN113689128A (en) Dynamic study and judgment and early warning system and method for ship navigation safety
CN115186959A (en) Ocean wave risk assessment method for ocean scientific investigation
CN111401702B (en) Offshore traffic risk assessment method
Qi et al. Multi-factor evaluation indicator method for the risk assessment of atmospheric and oceanic hazard group due to the attack of tropical cyclones
CN114898138A (en) Method for predicting forest fire based on landform and remote sensing data
CN114511061A (en) Shoreside region sea fog visibility forecasting method based on depth neural network
Li Evaluation method of ecological vulnerability of scenic spots based on entropy weight TOPSIS model
CN113962426A (en) Offshore water navigation safety intelligent forecasting method and device
CN116402143A (en) Intelligent ship index system construction and evaluation method
CN112163970A (en) Site selection method for wave energy power generation device
Wang et al. Spatial priorities for biodiversity and ecosystem services considering theoretical decision-makers’ attitudes to risk
Duan et al. Research on the hydrographic survey cycle for updating navigational charts
Wang et al. Geographic information system-based comprehensive oil spill risk assessment in China’s Bohai Sea
CN113379240A (en) Construction method of dynamic evaluation model of water traffic risk
Wang et al. Risk assessment of marine disasters in fishing ports of Qinhuangdao, China
CN109784611A (en) A kind of Formal Safety Assessment method for ocean platform
CN110751398A (en) Regional ecological quality evaluation method and device
Zhou Spatial risk assessment of maritime transportation in offshore waters of China using machine learning and geospatial big data

Legal Events

Date Code Title Description
PB01 Publication
PB01 Publication
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination