CN115147057A

CN115147057A - Intelligent decision-making meteorological service system

Info

Publication number: CN115147057A
Application number: CN202110351251.4A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 李刚; 杨林; 汤天然; 谭健; 石艳; 宋国强; 童必庆; 王宇; 唐磊
Original assignee: Guizhou Provincial Meteorological Observatory Guizhou Provincial Meteorological Decision Service Center
Current assignee: Guizhou Provincial Meteorological Observatory Guizhou Provincial Meteorological Decision Service Center
Priority date: 2021-03-31
Filing date: 2021-03-31
Publication date: 2022-10-04

Abstract

The invention discloses an intelligent decision-making meteorological service system which comprises a data statistics module, a forecast display module, a product manufacturing module, a province-region linkage module, a service science popularization module, a one-key publishing module and an intelligent pushing module, wherein the forecast display module is used for displaying a forecast; the data statistics module is used for providing rich text and picture materials; the forecast display module is used for browsing and consulting various forecasts and service products; the product manufacturing module is used for classified manufacturing, rapid generation and distribution of various daily forecasts and service products; the province and region linkage module is used for displaying province-level weather forecast products and province-state weather forecast products of the provinces and states; the service science popularization module is used for adding and displaying science popularization propaganda documents in the meteorological service; the one-key publishing module is used for one-key publishing of daily forecasts and service products and managing publishing channels; and the intelligent pushing module is used for displaying, pushing and distributing various forecasting, decision-making and special weather service products. The method can realize accurate forecasting of the karst region.

Description

Intelligent decision-making meteorological service system

Technical Field

The invention belongs to the technical field of weather service systems, and relates to an intelligent decision-making weather service system.

Background

The method aims at forecasting the weather in the karst region, and accurate forecasting of the weather in the karst region is difficult to realize due to the fact that the geographic environment is complex and the influence factors are more.

Disclosure of Invention

The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: an intelligent decision-making weather service system is provided to solve the problems in the prior art.

The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: an intelligent decision-making weather service system comprises a data statistics module, a forecast display module, a product manufacturing module, a province-region linkage module, a service science popularization module, a one-key publishing module and an intelligent pushing module;

the data statistics module is used for conveniently inquiring real-time and historical various conventional meteorological data and disaster weather cases under different threshold values, carrying out space statistics, sorting, distance calculation and occurrence day number statistics and using the data for subjective correction, and the statistical result supports self-defined quick plotting and provides rich text and picture materials for forecast and service products;

the forecast display module is used for browsing and consulting various forecasts and service products, performing data statistics inquiry, drawing and product manufacturing of various forecast elements on any point, line and plane within the range of each city and county in the province, copying and calling the result, and realizing objective influence on data display and product manufacturing of the forecasts and service products;

the internal weather forecast in the forecast display module selects a relative humidity index and a standardized rainfall index to monitor the day-to-day drought of the karst region; MI index we consider the case of 30-day transpiration (MI 30), which applies to the case of T >0 ℃, when T ≦ 0 ℃, set as negative, MI =32766; when T is larger than 0 ℃, the index value is normally output. Drought is the expression of accumulated loss of rainfall, so that the 90-day accumulated rainfall condition (SPI 90) is considered, the 90-day accumulated rainfall is subjected to sliding calculation, and day-by-day standardized rainfall index values of the 90-day accumulated rainfall are given in a calculation method based on the SPI index;

the product manufacturing module is used for classified manufacturing, rapid generation and distribution of various daily forecasts and service products, and supports various meteorological elements in insertion query, editing and document generation in the product manufacturing;

the province and local linkage module is used for supporting inquiry, viewing, downloading and commenting of various forecast and service products for displaying province-level weather forecast products and province and state weather forecast products of the province;

the service science popularization module is used for adding and displaying science popularization propaganda documents in the weather service and supporting functions of document adding, deleting, downloading, viewing and inquiring;

and the one-key publishing module is used for one-key publishing of daily forecasts and service products and publishing channel management, and supports ftp, shared paths, mailboxes and the like.

And the intelligent pushing module is used for displaying, pushing and distributing various forecasting, decision-making and special weather service products and supporting the pushing of a fixed transmission mode, a fixed place (longitude and latitude) and intelligent positioning (GPS positioning).

The module also has the main functions of system use log statistics and inquiry (trace management), classified template management, forecast product template management, service product template management, temporary special topic management and information quick report template management.

The disaster examples comprise the succession and the examples of the disasters such as snowfall, strong wind, hail, frost, rainstorm, cold tide, heavy fog, rime and thunderstorm, can be inquired and counted at any time interval, supports historical synchronization comparison, can screen sites (national site, regional site, single site and all sites), site quantity, magnitude and time interval, and display the inquiry result in a list form;

wherein the historical synchronization comprises: first-level table: counting the number of cases meeting the screening conditions every year; secondary table: displaying the date, total station number, average value and extreme value of the day which accord with the screening condition in a certain year; third-level table: showing sites which meet the screening conditions and corresponding values of each case day; expanding an example table: showing station number statistics of all magnitude levels of each case day of all years, and average values and extreme values of each case day; drawing: selecting any example day, automatically making a speckle pattern, and supporting station values under different threshold conditions to be displayed in red;

the time interval selection comprises the following steps: first-level table: showing the extreme values of the example day, the total station number, the average value and the day which accord with the screening condition in any time period; secondary table: showing sites which meet the screening conditions and corresponding values of each case day; expanding an example table: showing station number statistics of different thresholds or magnitudes of all the example days in the period of time, and average values and extreme values of the example days; drawing: selecting any example day, automatically making a speckle pattern, and supporting station values meeting the conditions to be displayed in red;

the query successively includes: inquiring the examples meeting the condition magnitude and the station number, specifically an inquiry list of rainstorm, cold tide, high temperature, low temperature overcast and rainy weather, snow, fog, rime and strong cooling; continuous first-level table: start and end times, days of duration, number of stations, selected average. The table supports export; continuous secondary table: time, site value; the query lists of autumn rain, late spring cold, autumn wind, low temperature rain and the like; continuous first-level table: station number, station name, start time, end time, number of days on duration, magnitude. The table supports export; continuous secondary table: time, station value.

The query example comprises the following steps: the method can inquire the factors of rainstorm, cold tide, high temperature, low temperature, snow, rime, thunderstorm, fog, extreme wind, low temperature and overcast rain, autumn wind, continuous rain, late spring cold and strong cooling, can check the number of cases or continuous lists meeting the screening conditions in the historical period or period selection according to the magnitude and the station number, and supports the function of exporting.

The sequencing extreme value supports the query statistics of the extreme values (maximum value, average value and accumulated value) of the average air temperature, the highest air temperature, the lowest air temperature, 08-08 rainfall, 20-20 rainfall and sunshine data at any time interval, supports the historical synchronization comparison, can select stations (single station, national station, regional station and all stations), displays the query result in a form of graph and list, and supports the sequencing of the stations according to the year;

wherein the historical synchronization comprises: inquiring the maximum value, the minimum value, the average value and the accumulated value of the historical contemporaneous average temperature, the maximum temperature, the minimum temperature, the 08-08 rainfall and the 20-20 rainfall at any time period, year, season, month, ten days, day and day; first-level table: the historical extreme values of the live values of the city and the sites and the historical synchronization in the selected year can be checked, and the sequence of the live values in the historical synchronization can be checked; secondary table: the sorting condition of annual extreme value or average value or accumulated value of a certain station and the historical comparison bar graph of the station values are displayed at the same time; setting the average of district and county: comparing bar graphs of historical extreme values of each county, station number average values and historical extreme values or average values of elements of each county, and sequencing of live values in history; and (3) drawing: the chart can be switched by the current year sequencing, the historical extreme value and the current year value.

The time interval selection comprises the following steps: the maximum value, the minimum value, the average value and the accumulated value of the average air temperature, the highest air temperature, the lowest air temperature, the 08-08 rainfall and the 20-20 rainfall in any time period can be inquired; primary listing: the extreme value and the occurrence time of each station in the period of time; setting district-county average: comparing the statistical values of each county in the period of time with the bar chart and the appearance date; and (3) drawing: and (4) plotting the extreme value, the average value and the accumulated value of each station in the period of time.

The live pitch includes: live values and perennial synchronization of individual sites for any period of time, and their relative distance values or distance percentages may be queried, and a map of live values, perennial synchronization values, or distance values may be selected. The queried list supports export; list: live value, perennial synchronization and average distance value of each site; average of each county: average live value, year synchronization, rank value, rank percentage for each county.

Forecasting pitch comprises: the forecast value and the perennial period of each site at any time interval can be inquired, and the distance value between the forecast value and the perennial period can be inquired. The forecast value, the perennial current value or the distance value can be selected to be plotted; the queried list supports export; list: forecast values, perennial synchronization and balance values for each site.

The day statistics comprise the highest temperature, the lowest temperature, the average temperature, the rainfall, the snow, the rime, the thunderstorm, the fog, the historical synchronization of the extreme wind and the live days of the time period selection, the synchronization days of the year, the maximum days and the minimum days which can be inquired according with the magnitude. The current year day, the perennial day and the current year synchronization day can be selected for drawing. The queried list supports exporting;

wherein (1) the number of query days comprises

Historical synchronization:

primary listing: inquiring the current year days, the current year synchronization days, the more current year synchronization days and the days of each site in the average province

Maximum, day minimum;

secondary listing: counting the number of days per year in the whole province or single site;

bar graph: comparison of annual days per year for average or single station in the whole province;

counting the number of days: counting the total days of each year of each station, the most historical days and years, and the least historical days and years;

and (3) time interval selection:

primary listing: the number of days of all sites which meet the magnitude in a certain time period and the statistic value in the time period can be inquired;

secondary listing: inquiring the date of occurrence and the corresponding value which meet the conditions of the single site;

(2) Query continuation includes

Inquiring continuous days meeting the magnitude condition;

history synchronization: inquiring the continuous days meeting the conditions in the period of time every year, and the longest continuous days and the appearance year;

and (3) time interval selection: the longest consecutive days in the time period and the cumulative days are queried.

Forecasting products in the product manufacturing module are classified into forecasting broadcast draft, strong convection products, early warning signals, television early warning, mountain torrents, geological disasters and territorial forecasting;

forecasting products based on the provincial grids are forecast, and products required by various service guarantees are rapidly generated in real time through a template according to service requirements; the method can perform accumulative statistical display on the forecast precipitation, tmax, tmin, wind speed and minimum visibility of grid points for 12h, 24h or any time period within 168h, and supports graphic generation and copying; displaying and copying a time series forecast chart of precipitation, tmax, tmin, wind speed and minimum visibility at any point in the forecast aging by 168 h; automatic making or product browsing of various conventional decision service products and special service materials, and carrying out standard unified naming on products for storage; the parameters of the manufactured template can be manually managed; through the processing of the template and the material configured in the background, various products are automatically produced after the data sources are aligned,

the product comprises daily weather information, weather information quick report, important weather information special report, weather information report, two-day forecast, public forecast product, special service product, forecast broadcast draft and the like, and the product generates and supports the preview and import of historical data and supports the secondary correction of the product by using a WORD text editing tool.

The daily forecast adopts intelligent analysis rules such as various meteorological element analysis and intelligent interpolation algorithms, so that text materials are quickly generated, manual editing is supported, timely, efficient and intelligent production of daily forecast products is realized through material classification and custom configuration of product templates, the working pressure of meteorological forecast personnel is reduced to a great extent, the labor cost input in the service is reduced, and the working efficiency is improved; the rapid manufacturing and generation of daily forecast products are supported; the method supports single or multiple channel distribution and all channel distribution of products; the production conditions of the product list and the classification list in three days are supported to be checked; supporting the function of forecasting the product 'template configuration'; the method supports product classification/forecast product/service product time customization, and specifically comprises the following steps:

1) Material preparation:

the material is an important component of the product and also is the basis for manufacturing intelligent products; the materials applied by different products are different, and the materials are divided according to the content of the products, so that business personnel can edit key content conveniently;

the method is characterized in that the method is manufactured according to different types of material contents, lattice point data can be converted into character contents through intelligent analysis rules, and materials can be generated in a manual input mode. Clicking a 'newly built' product on a material making page, converting a preset material template into character information based on decision-making weather service intelligent auxiliary system data, and performing secondary correction on an edit column; after correction, the current production content can be stored. After the product is confirmed to be correct, the material manufacturing of the product is completed through the submitting function, and the next step of rapid product generation is carried out;

the method comprises the following steps of (1) configuring a template of a weather and climate bulletin, a climate forecasting product, a flood prevention week report, a flood prevention scheduling material and various temporary decision service materials;

2) And (3) product generation:

the method can be used for quickly generating the product submitted with the material, automatically inserting the material and generating the required product through the preset template configuration, and readjusting or directly releasing the product;

the product list is used for checking the product and clicking' product generation, and a product manufacturing interface is entered; products manufactured without the completed materials cannot be produced. The generated product is checked, the text can be directly edited, and the functional editing of the font, the space and the color can also be carried out on the text through a toolbar;

3) Generating publications

The method can be used for quickly pre-generating the product submitted with the material, automatically inserting the material and generating the required product through the pre-template configuration, and readjusting or directly releasing the product;

selecting a product from the product list, entering a product manufacturing interface, selecting a template for product pre-generation, and not performing product generation on the product which is not manufactured by materials;

and automatically generating word documents, txt text products, product names, publishers, auditors, distribution time, mail titles and other contents. Previewing the generated product text content, directly editing the text, and performing functional editing such as font, space, color and the like on the text through a toolbar;

the label definition of the product is supported, and the product is classified in various ways in a label form, so that the product can be conveniently searched and checked according to the type;

the method supports the publishing function of the product, checks the channel type, the channel name, the detailed channel information and the publishing state of the product, and selects the channel to be published to publish by one key. Supporting single or multiple channel distribution;

4) Classification management

The classification management is a module for providing template maintenance management for material production in the forecast product production module;

establishing material classification through a tree menu, and after establishing, defaulting a label name as a material classification name, filling character content in the classified content, and inserting a material label predicted by a grid into a text box through a tool box;

the label tool box can select longitude and latitude, station number, type, mode, element, start time, time efficiency/time period, element processing symbol and numerical value processing symbol to generate a formatted material label;

setting the manufacturing time and the manufacturing time period of the material type, wherein the manufacturing time supports fixed date selection every day, every week, every month and every year, and the manufacturing time period supports multi-time period selection;

the created material classifications may be displayed in the production of material in the "forecast production" module. And if the new construction is carried out in the daily service production, the preset material label is converted into the character information according to the forecast data.

Provincial and regional linkage comprises:

1) Provincial products

The module mainly has the functions of showing provincial weather forecast products of Guizhou province and supporting inquiry, viewing, downloading and commenting of various forecast products;

the method has the advantages that the decision forecasting materials of provincial and local cities are cut off, and provincial and local cities can check and download various materials published in each local state city in real time; (directly reading and browsing various decision service products uploaded in provinces, cities and counties on the office network, and directly leaving messages for advantages and disadvantages in services or materials in states and cities of various regions);

provincial forecast products comprise forecast broadcast draft, strong convection products, early warning signals, television early warning, mountain torrents, geological disasters and territorial forecast;

the method supports the forecast product to rotate clockwise, enlarge and reduce, and is suitable for the page size to view; supporting downloading and printing functions;

2) Di Zhou product

The module has the functions of mainly displaying weather forecast products of all the places of Guizhou province and supporting inquiry, viewing, downloading and comment of various forecast products;

real-time viewing and downloading of decision forecasting materials among various regions, states and cities are realized, and meanwhile, the opinions and the suggestion information of the users can be fed back and pushed to the publishers or public message areas;

the forecast product is supported to rotate clockwise, enlarge and reduce, and the method is suitable for checking the page size. And the downloading and printing functions are supported.

The invention has the beneficial effects that: compared with the prior art, the method utilizes the live data and the grid products, automatically generates various products such as various texts, pictures and tables required by the service through the generator, can re-edit the generated products, even can realize one-key making and issuing of certain special service products, and can realize accurate forecasting of the karst region.

Drawings

FIG. 1 is a functional diagram of the system of the present invention.

Detailed Description

The invention is further described with reference to the following figures and specific embodiments.

Example 1: as shown in fig. 1, an intelligent decision-making weather service system includes a data statistics module, a forecast display module, a product making module, a province-district linkage module, a service science popularization module, a one-key publishing module and an intelligent pushing module;

the data statistics module is used for conveniently inquiring real-time and historical various conventional meteorological data and the statistics of the number of days of occurrence under different thresholds and carrying out subjective correction on the statistics, and the statistical results support custom quick plotting and provide rich text and picture materials for forecast and service products;

the forecast display module is used for browsing and consulting various forecasts and service products, performing data statistics query, drawing and product making of various forecast elements on any point, line and plane within the range of cities and counties of the province, copying and calling the result, and achieving data display and product making of objectively influenced forecasts and service products.

And the product making module is used for classifying, making, rapidly generating and distributing various daily forecasts and service products, and supporting various meteorological element insertion inquiry, editing and document generation in the product making process.

and the service science popularization module is used for adding and displaying science popularization propaganda documents in the weather service and supporting the functions of document addition, deletion, downloading, viewing and query.

wherein the historical synchronization comprises: first-level table: counting the number of cases meeting the screening condition every year; secondary table: displaying the date, total station number, average value and extreme value of the day, which accord with the screening condition in a certain year; third-level table: showing sites which meet the screening conditions and corresponding values of each case day; expanding an example table: showing station number statistics of all magnitude levels of each case day of all years, and average values and extreme values of each case day; drawing: selecting any example day, automatically making a speckle pattern, and supporting red marking display of station values with different threshold values or meeting conditions;

the time interval selection comprises the following steps: first-level table: displaying the extreme values of the number of the total stations, the average value and the day of each case meeting the screening condition in any time period; secondary table: showing sites which meet the screening conditions and corresponding values of each case day; expanding an example table: showing station number statistics of different thresholds or magnitude levels of all the example days in the current time period, and average values and extreme values of the example days; drawing: selecting any example day, automatically making a speckle pattern, and supporting station value red marking display meeting the conditions;

the query successively includes: inquiring the examples meeting the condition magnitude and the station number, specifically an inquiry list of rainstorm, cold tide, high temperature, low temperature overcast rain, snow, fog, rime and strong cooling; continuous first-level table: start and end times, days of duration, number of stations, selected average. The table supports export; continuous secondary table: time, station value; query lists of autumn rain, late spring cold, autumn wind, low temperature and continuous rain and the like; continuous first-level table: station number, station name, start time, end time, duration days, magnitude. A table supports exporting; continuous secondary table: time, station value.

The query example comprises the following steps: the method can inquire the factors of rainstorm, cold tide, high temperature, low temperature, snow, rime, thunderstorm, fog, extreme wind, low temperature with overcast and rainy, autumn wind, autumn rain, late spring cold and strong cooling, can check the number of cases or continuous lists meeting the screening condition in the historical period or time period selection according to the magnitude and the station number, and supports the function of exporting the tables.

wherein the historical synchronization comprises: inquiring the maximum value, the minimum value, the average value and the accumulated value of the historical contemporaneous average temperature, the maximum temperature, the minimum temperature, the 08-08 rainfall and the 20-20 rainfall at any time period, year, season, month, ten days, day and day; first-level table: the method can inquire live values of provinces, cities, counties and various sites, historical contemporaneous extrema in selected years and the sequence of the live values in the historical contemporaneous period; secondary table: the sorting condition of the annual extreme value, the average value or the accumulated value of a certain station and the annual extreme value is displayed, and meanwhile, a historical comparison bar graph of the station values is displayed; setting district-county average: comparing bar graphs of historical extreme values of all counties, station number average values of all county elements, historical extreme values or average values, and ordering of live values in the history; and (3) drawing: the chart can be switched by the current year sequencing, the historical extreme value and the current year value.

The time interval selection comprises the following steps: the maximum value, the minimum value, the average value and the accumulated value of the average air temperature, the highest air temperature, the lowest air temperature, the 08-08 rainfall and the 20-20 rainfall in any time period can be inquired; primary listing: extreme values and occurrence times of all stations in any time period; setting the average of district and county: comparing the statistical values of each county in the period of time with the bar chart and the appearance date; drawing: and (4) plotting the extreme value, the average value and the accumulated value of each station in any time period.

Forecasting pitch comprises: the forecast value and the perennial period of each site at any time interval can be inquired, and the distance value between the forecast value and the perennial period can be inquired. The forecast value, the perennial current value or the distance value can be selected to be plotted; the queried list supports export; list: forecast values, perennial synchronization and distance average values for each site.

The day statistics comprise the highest temperature, the lowest temperature, the average temperature, the rainfall, the snow, the rime, the thunderstorm, the fog, the historical synchronization of the extreme wind and the live days selected in the time period, the synchronization days of the year, the maximum days and the minimum days which can be inquired according with the magnitude. The current year day, the perennial day and the current year synchronization day can be selected for drawing. The queried list supports export;

wherein (1) the number of query days comprises

Historical synchronization:

primary listing: inquiring the current year days, current year synchronization days, more current year synchronization days and days of each site in the average province

Maximum, day minimum;

and (3) time interval selection:

primary listing: the number of days of all sites meeting the conditions in a certain time period and the statistics in the current time period can be inquired;

secondary listing: the inquired date of occurrence and corresponding value that the single site meets the condition;

(2) Querying successive includes

Querying continuous days meeting the conditions;

history synchronization: querying continuous days, the longest continuous days and the appearance year which meet the conditions in any time period every year;

time interval selection: the longest consecutive days in the time period and the cumulative days are queried.

Forecasting products in the product manufacturing module are classified into forecasting broadcast manuscripts, strong convection products, early warning signals, television early warning, mountain torrents, geological disasters and prefectures;

forecasting products based on the provincial grids are forecast, and products required by various service guarantees are rapidly generated in real time through a template according to service requirements; the method can perform accumulative statistical display on the forecast precipitation, tmax, tmin, wind speed and minimum visibility of grid points for 12h, 24h or any time period within 168h, and adopts graph generation and copying; displaying and copying a time series forecast chart supporting precipitation, tmax, tmin, wind speed and minimum visibility at any point in 168h forecast aging; various conventional decision service products and thematic service materials are automatically manufactured or browsed, and the products are named in a standard and unified manner and stored; the parameters of the manufactured template can be manually managed; through the processing of the template and the material configured in the background, various products are automatically produced after the data sources are aligned,

The daily forecast adopts intelligent analysis rules such as various meteorological element analysis and intelligent interpolation algorithms, so that text materials are quickly generated, manual editing is supported, timely, efficient and intelligent production of daily forecast products is realized through material classification and custom configuration of product templates, the working pressure of meteorological forecast personnel is reduced to a great extent, the labor cost input in the service is reduced, and the working efficiency is improved; the rapid manufacturing and generation of daily forecast products are supported; the method supports single or multiple channel distribution and all channel distribution of products; the production conditions of the product list and the classification list in three days are supported to be checked; the function of 'template configuration' of a forecast product is supported; the method supports product classification/forecast product/service product time customization, and specifically comprises the following steps:

1) Material preparation:

2) And (3) product generation:

the product list is used for checking the product and clicking' product generation, and a product manufacturing interface is entered; products which are not manufactured from materials cannot be generated. The generated product is checked, the text can be directly edited, and the functional editing of the font, the space and the color can also be carried out on the text through a toolbar;

3) Generating publications

4) Classification management

Provincial and regional linkage comprises:

1) Provincial product

the method has the advantages that the decision forecasting materials of provincial and local cities are cut off, and provincial and local cities can check and download various materials published in each local state city in real time; (directly reading and browsing various decision service products uploaded in provinces, cities and counties of the office network, and directly leaving messages for advantages and disadvantages in services or materials in each region and city);

the forecast product is supported to rotate clockwise, enlarge and reduce, and the method is suitable for checking the page size; supporting downloading and printing functions;

2) Di Zhou product

The module mainly has the functions of showing weather forecast products of various countries in Guizhou province and supporting inquiry, viewing, downloading and commenting of various forecast products;

Selecting a relative humidity index and a standardized rainfall index from the internal weather forecast to monitor the day-to-day drought of the karst region; MI index we consider the case of 30-day transpiration (MI 30), which applies to the case of T >0 ℃, when T ≦ 0 ℃, set as negative, MI =32766; when T is greater than 0 ℃, the index value is normally output. Drought is the expression of accumulated deficit of rainfall, so that the 90-day accumulated rainfall condition (SPI 90) is considered, the 90-day accumulated rainfall is subjected to sliding calculation, and a day-by-day standardized rainfall index value of the 90-day accumulated rainfall is given by a calculation method based on the SPI index.

1. Relative wetting index day by day (MI 30)

1.1 daily MI30 index calculation method

The relative wetness index is an index obtained by dividing the difference between the precipitation in a certain period of time and the potential evapotranspiration in the same period of time by the potential evapotranspiration in the same period of time, and is calculated according to the formula (1):

in the formula:

relative humidity on a MI month scale day by day;

p includes the 30-day cumulative precipitation in millimeters (mm) for each forecast age;

30-day potential evapotranspiration of PET at each age, calculated by the Thornthwaite method, in mm

(mm)；

The method of Thornthwaite (1948) for calculating the potential evapotranspiration is based on the average monthly temperature as the main basis, and an empirical formula is established by considering a latitude factor (sunlight length), so that the input factors are few, the calculation method is simple, and the method is shown as the formula (2):

in the formula:

the 30-day potential evapotranspiration of each aging of PET, in millimeters per month (mm/day);

T _i including the average temperature in degrees centigrade (deg.C) of the 30-balance of each forecast age

H year caloric index;

and (4) constant A.

Heat index per month H _i Calculated from equation (3):

T _i calculating the average temperature in degrees Celsius (deg.C) of the month immediately before the day

Annual caloric index H is calculated as shown in formula (4):

h is the sum of daily caloric indices calculated 12 months prior to the day.

1.2MI index drought grade partitioning

According to national standard GB/T20481-2017-weather drought level of the people's republic of China, a dividing table of MI index drought levels is given in Table 1. According to table 1, the last column in the output results of the day-by-day indices is the drought level, represented by the numbers 1-5, 1 is no drought, 2 is light drought, 3 is medium drought, 4 is medium drought, and 5 is extra drought.

TABLE 1 partitioning of relative humidity drought levels

Grade	Type (B)	Relative degree of wetness
			1	Without drought	-0.40＜MI
2	Light drought	-0.65＜MI≤-0.40
			3	Zhonghan (middle drought)	-0.80＜MI≤-0.65
4	Heavy drought	-0.95＜MI≤-0.80
			5	Extra drought	MI≤-0.95

1.3 example of daily MI30 index calculation

1.3.1 results output

The output result is named MI _0301.Txt, the first column of the output content is station number, the second column is forecast aging, the third column is MI30 index value, and the fourth column is drought level, and the following list shows.

2 standardized precipitation index (SPI 90)

2.1 day-by-day SPI90 index calculation method

The distribution of the precipitation is not normal distribution but a biased distribution. Therefore, the change of the precipitation is described by using the probability of the gamma distribution in the precipitation analysis, drought monitoring and evaluation. The standardized rainfall index (SPI for short) is that after the distribution probability of the rainfall within a certain period of time is calculated, normal standardization treatment is carried out, and finally the drought grade is divided by the standardized rainfall cumulative frequency distribution.

The calculation steps of the standardized precipitation index (SPI for short) are as follows:

a) Assuming that precipitation in a certain period is a random variable x, the probability density function of the distribution of gamma is as follows (D.1):

wherein:

beta is more than 0, gamma is more than 0 and is respectively a scale and a shape parameter, and beta and gamma can be obtained by a maximum likelihood estimation method, and the maximum likelihood estimation method is as shown in formulas (D.2) and (D.3):

wherein:

in the formula:

x _i is a precipitation data sample;

the precipitation climate averages.

After determining the parameters in the probability density function, the precipitation x for a certain year ₀ It can be found that the random variable x is smaller than x ₀ The probability of an event is:

an approximate estimate of the probability of an event can be calculated by substituting equation (d.5) with equation (d.1) using numerical integration. b) The probability of an event when the precipitation is 0 is estimated by the equation (d.6):

F(x＝0)＝m/n (D.6)

in the formula:

m number of samples with precipitation of 0

n total number of samples

c) The probability of the gamma distribution is normalized by the probability obtained by the equations (D.5) and (D.6)

Substituting values into the normalized normal distribution function, i.e.:

an approximate solution of equation (d.7) can be found:

wherein:

f is the probability obtained by the formula (D.5) or the formula (D.6, and when F is more than 0.5, the value of F is 1.0-F, S =1, and when F is less than or equal to 0.5, S = -1.

c ₀ ＝2.515517；

c ₁ ＝0.802853；

c ₂ ＝0.010328；

d ₁ ＝1.432788；

d ₂ ＝0.189269；

d ₃ ＝0.001308。

The value Z determined by equation (d.8) is the normalized precipitation index SPI.

2.2SPI index drought grade partitioning

According to national standard GB/T20481-2017-weather drought level of the people's republic of China, a division table of SPI index drought levels is given in table 2. According to table 2, the last column in the output results of the day-by-day indices is the drought level, represented by the numbers 1-5, 1 is no drought, 2 is light drought, 3 is medium drought, 4 is medium drought, and 5 is extra drought.

TABLE 2 standardized rainfall index drought grade division table

Grade of	Type (B)	SPI
			1	Without drought	-0.5＜SPI
2	Light drought	-1.0＜SPI≤-0.5
			3	Middle dry land	-1.5＜SPI≤-1.0
4	Heavy drought	-2.0＜SPI≤-1.5
			5	Extra drought	SPI≤-2.0

2.3 example of daily SPI90 exponential calculation

2.3.1 results output

The output result is named as spi90-0301.Txt, the first column of the output content is station number, the second column is forecast aging, the third column is MI30 index value, and the fourth column is drought level, and the following list shows.

In conclusion, the calculation results of the MI30 and the SPI90 show that due to the difference of reference physical quantities and the difference of time cumulative effects, the drought levels calculated by the indexes are different, and in practical application, the drought levels above the scale of the Chinese rose issued by the climate center are recommended to be combined, and the drought changes in the future 7 days are judged by combining the level difference of the day-to-day drought indexes in each forecast time period, so that reference is provided for decision-making service.

The above description is only an embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can easily conceive of changes or substitutions within the technical scope of the present invention, and therefore, the scope of the present invention should be determined by the scope of the claims.

Claims

1. An intelligent decision-making weather service system is characterized in that: the system comprises a data statistics module, a forecast display module, a product manufacturing module, a province and local linkage module, a service science popularization module, a one-key publishing module and an intelligent pushing module;

the data statistics module is used for conveniently inquiring real-time and historical various conventional meteorological data and various disastrous weather examples under different thresholds, carrying out space statistics, sequencing, distance calculation and occurrence day statistics, and using the inquired data for subjective correction, and the statistical result supports custom quick plotting and provides text and picture materials for forecast and service products;

selecting a relative humidity index and a standardized precipitation index from internal weather forecast in the forecast display module to monitor the day-to-day drought of the karst region; the MI index takes the case of 30-day evapotranspiration into consideration, is applicable to the case that T is greater than 0 ℃, and is set as default when T is less than or equal to 0 ℃, and MI =32766; when T is greater than 0 ℃, normally outputting an index value; the drought considers the condition of 90-day accumulated precipitation, the 90-day accumulated precipitation is subjected to sliding calculation, and a day-by-day standardized precipitation index value of the 90-day accumulated precipitation is given out by a calculation method based on the SPI index;

the product manufacturing module is used for classified manufacturing, rapid generation and distribution of various daily forecasts and service products, and supports various gas elements to insert, inquire, edit and document generation in the product manufacturing process;

the service science popularization module is used for publicizing documents and displaying science popularization in the weather service and supporting the functions of adding, deleting, downloading, checking and inquiring the documents;

the one-key publishing module is used for one-key publishing of daily forecasts and service products and managing publishing channels;

and the intelligent pushing module is used for displaying, pushing and distributing various forecasting, decision-making and thematic weather service products.

2. The weather service system of claim 1, wherein: the module also has the main functions of system use log statistics and query, classified template management, forecast product template management, service product template management, temporary thematic management and information quick report template management.

3. The weather service system of claim 1, wherein: the disaster examples comprise the succession and examples of the disasters such as snowfall, strong wind, hail, frost, rainstorm, cold tide, heavy fog, rime and thunderstorm, can be inquired and counted in any time period, supports historical synchronization comparison, can screen sites, site quantity, meteorological element magnitude and time period, and display the inquiry result in a list form; wherein the historical synchronization comprises: first-level table: counting the number of cases meeting the screening conditions every year; secondary table: displaying the date, total station number, average value and extreme value of the current day which accord with the screening condition in a certain year; third-level table: showing sites which meet the screening conditions and corresponding values of each case day; expanding an example table: showing station number statistics of all magnitude levels of all year example days, and average values and extreme values of all example days; drawing: selecting any example day, automatically making a speckled pattern, and supporting station values under different threshold conditions to be displayed in a red marking mode; the time interval selection comprises the following steps: first-level table: displaying the extreme values of the sample day, the total station number, the average value and the day which accord with the screening condition in any time period; secondary table: the sites with the screening conditions in each case and the corresponding values are shown; expanding an example table: showing station number statistics of different thresholds or magnitude levels of all the example days in the current time period, and average values and extreme values of the example days; drawing: selecting any example day, automatically making a color spot diagram, and supporting station value red marking display meeting the conditions;

the query successively includes: inquiring the examples meeting the condition magnitude and the station number, specifically an inquiry list of rainstorm, cold tide, high temperature, low temperature overcast rain, snow, fog, rime and strong cooling; continuous first-level table: start and end times, days of duration, number of stations, selected average. The table supports export; continuous secondary table: time, station value; the query lists of autumn rain, late spring cold, autumn wind, low temperature rain and the like; continuous first-level table: station number, station name, start time, end time, number of days on duration, magnitude. The table supports export; continuous secondary table: time, station value;

the query example comprises the following steps: the method can inquire the factors of rainstorm, cold tide, high temperature, low temperature, snow, rime, thunderstorm, fog, extreme wind, low-temperature overcast and rainy, autumn wind, continuous rain, late spring cold and strong cooling, can check the number of cases or continuous lists meeting the screening conditions in the historical same period or period selection according to the magnitude and the station number, and supports the function of exporting the forms.

4. The weather service system of claim 3, wherein: the sequencing extreme value supports the query statistics of extreme values of average air temperature, highest air temperature, lowest air temperature, 08-08 rainfall, 20-20 rainfall and sunshine data at any time interval, the historical synchronization comparison is supported, sites (national sites, regional sites, single sites and all sites) can be selected, the query result is displayed in a form of a graph and a list, and the sequencing of the sites and the year is supported;

wherein, the historical synchronization comprises: inquiring the maximum value, the minimum value, the average value and the accumulated value of the average temperature, the maximum temperature, the minimum temperature, the 08-08 rainfall and the 20-20 rainfall at any time period, year, season, month, ten days, day and historical date; first-level table: the method can inquire live values of provinces, cities, counties and various sites, historical contemporaneous extrema in selected years and the sequence of the live values in the historical contemporaneous period; secondary table: the sorting condition of annual site extreme value, average value or accumulated value of a certain site and the historical comparison distribution graph of the site values are displayed at the same time; setting district-county average: comparing bar graphs of historical extreme values of each county, station number average values and historical extreme values or average values of elements of each county, and sequencing of live values in history; drawing: the current year sequencing, the historical extreme value and the current year value can be switched into a graph;

the time interval selection comprises the following steps: the maximum value, the minimum value, the average value and the accumulated value of the average air temperature, the highest air temperature, the lowest air temperature, the 08-08 rainfall and the 20-20 rainfall in any time period can be inquired; primary listing: extreme values and occurrence times of all stations in any time period; setting district-county average: comparing the statistical values of each county in the period of time with the bar chart and the appearance date; drawing: and (4) plotting the extreme value, the average value and the accumulated value of each station in any time period.

5. The weather service system according to claim 2, wherein: the live pitch includes: live values and perennial synchronization of individual sites at any time period and the pitch values or percentage of pitch values and perennial synchronization of live values may be queried, and a graph of live values, perennial synchronization values or pitch values may be selected. The queried list supports export; list: live value, perennial synchronization and average distance value of each site; average of each county: average live value, perennial synchronization, distance-to-average value, distance-to-average percentage of each county;

forecasting pitch comprises: the forecast value and the perennial period of each site at any time interval can be inquired, and the distance value between the forecast value and the perennial period can be inquired. The predicted value, the perennial current value or the distance value can be selected to be plotted; the queried list supports exporting; list: forecast values, perennial synchronization and balance values for each site.

6. The weather service system of claim 2, wherein: the day statistics comprise the highest temperature, the lowest temperature, the average temperature, the rainfall, the snow, the rime, the thunderstorm, the fog and the historical synchronization of the extreme wind and the live days selected in the time period, the synchronization days of the year, the maximum days and the minimum days which can be inquired according with the magnitude. The current year day, the perennial day and the current year synchronization day can be selected for drawing. The queried list supports exporting;

wherein (1) the number of query days comprises

History synchronization:

primary listing: inquiring the current year days, year synchronization days and year synchronization days of all sites

Maximum, day minimum;

and (3) time interval selection:

primary listing: the statistics of the number of days of all sites meeting the conditions in a certain time period and the current time can be inquired;

(2) Query continuation includes

Querying continuous days meeting the conditions;

time interval selection: the longest consecutive days and cumulative days within any period are queried.

7. The weather service system of claim 1, wherein: forecasting products in the product manufacturing module are classified into forecasting broadcast draft, strong convection products, early warning signals, television early warning, mountain torrents, geological disasters and territorial forecasting;

forecasting products based on the provincial grid, and rapidly generating products required by various service guarantees in real time through a template according to service requirements; the method can perform accumulative statistical display of precipitation, tmax, tmin, wind speed and minimum visibility predicted by grid points for 12h, 24h or any time period within 168h, and supports automatic generation and copying of graphs; displaying and copying a time series forecast chart of precipitation, tmax, tmin, wind speed and minimum visibility at any point in the forecast aging by 168 h; various conventional decision service products and thematic service materials are automatically manufactured or browsed, and the products are named in a standard and unified manner and stored; the manual management of the parameters of the manufactured template can be realized; through the processing of templates and materials configured in a background, after data sources are aligned, various products are automatically produced, the products comprise daily weather information, weather information quick report, important weather information special report, weather information report, two-day forecast, public forecast products, special service products, forecast broadcast draft and the like, the product generation supports the preview and import of historical data, and supports the secondary correction of the products by using a WORD text editing tool.

8. The weather service system of claim 7, wherein: the daily forecast adopts intelligent analysis rules such as various meteorological element analysis and intelligent interpolation algorithms, so that the text material is quickly generated, manual editing is supported, timely, efficient and intelligent production of daily forecast products is realized through material classification and custom configuration of product templates, the working pressure of weather forecast personnel is reduced to a great extent, the labor cost investment in business is reduced, and the working efficiency is improved; the rapid manufacturing and generation of daily forecast products are supported; the method supports single or multiple channel distribution and all-channel distribution of products; the production conditions of the product list and the classification list in three days are supported to be checked; supporting the function of forecasting the product 'template configuration'; the method supports product classification/forecast product/service product time customization, and specifically comprises the following steps:

1) Material preparation:

the method comprises the following steps of (1) needing to configure templates of weather and climate bulletins, weather prediction products, flood prevention weekly reports, flood prevention scheduling meeting materials and various temporary decision service materials;

2) And (3) product generation:

the method can quickly generate the product submitted with the material, automatically insert the material through the preset template configuration to generate the required product, and can readjust or directly release the product;

the product list is used for checking the product and clicking' product generation, and a product manufacturing interface is entered; products which are not manufactured from materials cannot be generated. The generated product is checked, the text can be directly edited, and the functional editing of fonts, intervals and colors can also be performed on the text through a toolbar;

3) Generating publications

4) Classification management

the label tool box can select longitude and latitude, station number, type, mode, element, start time, aging/time period, element processing symbol and numerical value processing symbol to generate a formatted material label;

the created material classifications may be displayed in the production of material in the forecast product production module. When the new label is created in daily service production, a pre-configured material label is converted into text information according to forecast data.

9. The weather service system of claim 2, wherein: provincial and regional linkage comprises:

1) Provincial products

the method has the advantages that the decision forecasting materials of province platforms and cities are cut off, and the province platforms can check and download various materials published in the states and cities in real time;

2) Di Zhou product

the real-time viewing and downloading of the decision forecasting materials among various places, states and cities are realized, and meanwhile, the opinions or the suggestion information can be fed back and pushed to the publishers or the public message leaving areas;

the method supports the forecast product to rotate clockwise, enlarge and reduce, and is suitable for page size viewing. And the downloading and printing functions are supported.