CN115130913A - New energy project risk assessment and quantification method and system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method and system. The scheme comprises the steps of obtaining output data of a historical new energy power supply and generating a risk judgment value; generating risk levels, and finishing risk sequencing by utilizing the risk levels; numbering according to the risk sequence, and inputting corresponding associated items and risk information; acquiring the policy quantity, voltage information, frequency information and reserve capacity of the system, and generating a comprehensive risk index; generating risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks; storing the risk data to generate risk filing data, and inquiring to obtain a risk report; and automatically displaying basic information of all risk reports, wherein the basic information comprises risk description, risk management strategies and risk countermeasures. According to the scheme, the comprehensive risk assessment of the new energy running state is carried out on line through the running state of the new energy and the new energy prediction of each partition, and the risk in the new energy execution process is effectively quantified.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of new energy power generation, in particular to a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method and system.
Background
The purpose of risk assessment is to obtain possible incidents of the execution process before a certain task/project is performed, since there are many types of incidents that may create risk, and there is a correlation between the incidents.
Before the technology of the invention, the existing projects of wind power generation and photovoltaic have a plurality of risks during or before the execution, and the risks are always lack of an effective evaluation mode, especially the independent risks and the comprehensive risks of all dimensions of starting, middle and end periods, standing, production, application and operation and maintenance of the overall execution period of each project are given in a quantitative mode.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above problems, the invention provides a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method and system, which perform online comprehensive risk assessment of the new energy operating state through the new energy operating state and new energy prediction of each partition, and effectively quantify the risk in the new energy execution process.
According to a first aspect of the embodiments of the present invention, a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method is provided.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the method for risk assessment and quantification of a new energy project includes:
acquiring output data of all historical new energy power supplies, generating a risk judgment value, and storing the risk judgment value as input data of a risk library;
generating corresponding risk levels according to the risk judgment values, and finishing risk sequencing by utilizing the risk levels;
numbering according to the risk sequence, and inputting corresponding associated items and risk information;
acquiring the policy quantity, voltage information, frequency information and reserve capacity of the current system, and generating a comprehensive risk index;
performing on-line examination and approval of all risks to generate risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks;
storing all risk data to generate risk filing data;
inputting risk description information and risk numbers, and inquiring to obtain a risk report;
and automatically displaying basic information of all risk reports, wherein the basic information comprises risk description, risk management strategy and risk countermeasure.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the acquiring output data of all historical new energy power sources, generating a risk judgment value, and storing the risk judgment value as input data of a risk library includes:
acquiring all current historical new energy output data;
obtaining future new energy output by using a first calculation formula;
obtaining a risk judgment value by utilizing a second calculation formula according to the future new energy output;
the first calculation formula is:
Y＝a 1 x 1 +a 2 x 2 +a 3 x 3 +a 4 x 4
wherein Y is the future new energy output, a 1 、a 2 、a 3 、a 4 Respectively are preset 1 st, 2 nd, 3 th and 4 th coefficients, x 1 、x 2 、x 3 、x 4 Sequentially and respectively obtaining 1 st, 2 nd, 3 th and 4 th historical new energy output data;
the second calculation formula is:
wherein A is the risk judgment value, count [ [ solution ] ]]As a counting function, n is the total number of partitions, Y i For the ith partition future new energy output, P i Load demand for the ith partition.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the generating a corresponding risk level according to the risk judgment value, and finishing risk ranking by using the risk level includes:
obtaining a risk grade by using a third calculation formula according to the risk judgment value;
according to the risk grades, sorting from big to small, and generating a risk sort;
the third calculation formula is:
wherein B is the risk grade, A is the risk judgment value, K1 is a first risk margin, and K2 is a second risk margin.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the numbering according to the risk ranking and the entering of the corresponding associated items and risk information specifically include:
establishing risk data according to the risk sequence and the corresponding risk type;
uniquely numbering the risks and setting specific risk description of the risks;
item association is performed for risk.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the acquiring policy quantity, voltage information, frequency information, and spare capacity for the current system and generating a comprehensive risk indicator specifically include:
obtaining a policy index by using a fourth calculation formula;
obtaining a voltage index by using a fifth calculation formula;
obtaining a frequency index by using a sixth calculation formula;
obtaining a standby index by using a seventh calculation formula;
obtaining a comprehensive risk index by using an eighth calculation formula according to the policy index, the voltage index, the frequency index and the standby index;
the fourth calculation formula is:
Z＝0.6C - -0.4C +
wherein, C - For the quantity of forward policies, C + Z is the policy indicator for a reverse policy quantity;
the fifth calculation formula is:
V f ＝count[(U1<V z- )||(V z+ <U2)]
wherein, V f For the voltage index, U1 and U2 are respectively the first and the second voltage margin V z- Is the minimum voltage value of unit time period, V z+ Is the maximum value of voltage per unit time period, count [ ]]Is a counting function;
the sixth calculation formula is:
F f ＝count[(F1<F z- )||(F z+ <F2)]
wherein, F f F1 and F2 are respectively a first frequency margin and a second frequency margin for the frequency index, F z- Is the minimum value of frequency per unit time period, F z+ Is the maximum value of unit time period frequency;
the seventh calculation formula is:
wherein p is, y b Is the reserve capacity, and Y is the reserve index;
the eighth calculation formula is:
H＝Z+V f +F f +Y
wherein H is the comprehensive risk index.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the performing online approval of all risks to generate risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks specifically includes:
starting risk examination and approval on the risk of the comprehensive risk index exceeding a preset value by the current account according to the current comprehensive risk index;
after receiving the risk approval command, the superior user can see all the risk information sent by the subordinate user;
and after receiving the risk information, generating specific different risk identification points and corresponding risk evaluation.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the storing all risk data and generating the archived risk data specifically include:
setting a memory powered by ups;
acquiring all risk storage data;
and judging whether the risk storage data exceeds a preset storage margin or not, and if so, storing the risk storage data into the storage.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the inputting risk description information and risk number, and querying for obtaining a risk report specifically includes:
acquiring risk description information, and performing information matching search;
when the risk description information searches are the same, a first report command is sent;
acquiring a risk number, and performing information matching search;
when the risk numbers are matched to be the same, a second report command is sent;
and generating a risk report according to the second report command, and if the second report command is not received, generating a risk report by using the first report command.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the basic information of all risk reports is automatically displayed, and the basic information includes risk description, risk management policy, and risk countermeasure, and specifically includes:
acquiring basic information of all risk reports;
displaying the basic information of the risk report in a table form, and automatically displaying;
before the basic information of the risk report is set, a risk serial number is set, and a responsibility department, a responsible person and an estimated completion time corresponding to the basic information of the risk report are displayed.
According to a second aspect of the embodiments of the present invention, a new energy project risk assessment and quantification system is provided.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the system for risk assessment and quantification of new energy projects includes:
the risk library module is used for acquiring output data of all historical new energy power supplies, generating a risk judgment value and storing the risk judgment value as input data of a risk library;
the risk sorting module is used for generating corresponding risk grades according to the risk judgment values and finishing risk sorting by utilizing the risk grades;
the user-defined risk warehousing module is used for numbering according to the risk sequence and inputting corresponding associated items and risk information;
the risk identification and evaluation module is used for collecting the policy quantity, the voltage information, the frequency information and the reserve capacity of the current system and generating a comprehensive risk index;
the process approval module is used for carrying out on-line approval on all risks and generating risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks;
the risk archiving module is used for storing all risk data to generate risk archiving data;
the evaluation report module is used for inputting risk description information and risk numbers and inquiring to obtain a risk report;
and the risk monitoring module is used for automatically displaying basic information of all risk reports, wherein the basic information comprises risk description, risk management strategies and risk response measures.
The technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention can have the following beneficial effects:
1) in the embodiment of the invention, the comprehensive risk assessment of the new energy running state is carried out on line through the running state of the new energy and the new energy prediction of each subarea, so that the risk in the new energy execution process is effectively quantified.
2) In the embodiment of the invention, policy risks and new energy operation risks are combined to form a comprehensive risk evaluation system, so that a new energy execution process is evaluated more systematically.
Additional features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof as well as the appended drawings.
The technical solution of the present invention is further described in detail by the accompanying drawings and embodiments.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a flowchart of acquiring output data of all historical new energy power sources, generating a risk judgment value, and storing the risk judgment value as input data of a risk database in the new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a flowchart of generating corresponding risk levels according to the risk judgment values and completing risk ranking by using the risk levels in the new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 4 is a flowchart of numbering according to the risk ranking and entering corresponding associated items and risk information in the new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is a flowchart of acquiring policy quantity, voltage information, frequency information, and reserve capacity of a current system and generating a comprehensive risk indicator in a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 6 is a flowchart of performing an online examination and approval of all risks to generate risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks in a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 7 is a flowchart of storing all risk data and generating archived risk data in a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 8 is a flowchart of inputting risk description information and risk numbers and querying for a risk report in the new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 9 is a flowchart for automatically displaying all basic information of a risk report in a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention, where the basic information includes a risk description, a risk management policy, and a risk countermeasure.
Fig. 10 is a block diagram of a new energy project risk assessment and quantification system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 11 is a schematic diagram of risk information data entry and editing of a new energy project risk assessment and quantification system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In some flows described in the present specification and claims and above figures, a number of operations are included that occur in a particular order, but it should be clearly understood that these operations may be performed out of order or in parallel as they occur herein, with the order of the operations being given as 101, 102, etc. merely to distinguish between various operations, and the order of the operations itself does not represent any order of performance. Additionally, the flows may include more or fewer operations, and the operations may be performed sequentially or in parallel. It should be noted that, the descriptions of "first", "second", etc. in this document are used for distinguishing different messages, devices, modules, etc., and do not represent a sequential order, nor limit the types of "first" and "second" to be different.
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The purpose of risk assessment is to obtain possible unexpected events of the execution process before a certain task/project is performed, because there are many types of events that may generate risks and there are interrelations between the events.
Before the technology of the invention, the existing projects of wind power generation and photovoltaic have a plurality of risks during or before the execution, and the risks are always lack of an effective evaluation mode, especially the independent risks and the comprehensive risks of all dimensions of starting, middle and end periods, standing, production, application and operation and maintenance of the overall execution period of each project are given in a quantitative mode.
The embodiment of the invention provides a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method and system. According to the scheme, the comprehensive risk assessment of the new energy running state is carried out on line through the running state of the new energy and the new energy prediction of each partition, and the risk in the new energy execution process is effectively quantified.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, in one or more embodiments, preferably, the method for risk assessment and quantification of a new energy project includes:
s101, acquiring output data of all historical new energy power supplies, generating a risk judgment value, and storing the risk judgment value as input data of a risk library;
s102, generating corresponding risk grades according to the risk judgment values, and finishing risk sequencing by utilizing the risk grades;
s103, numbering according to the risk sequence, and inputting corresponding associated items and risk information;
s104, acquiring the policy quantity, the voltage information, the frequency information and the reserve capacity of the current system, and generating a comprehensive risk index;
s105, carrying out on-line examination and approval on all risks, and generating risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks;
s106, storing all risk data to generate risk filing data;
s107, inputting risk description information and risk numbers, and inquiring to obtain a risk report;
and S108, automatically displaying all basic information of the risk report, wherein the basic information comprises risk description, risk management strategy and risk response measures.
In the embodiment of the invention, the risks of the whole process are quantified for photovoltaic and wind power in the power generation of new energy.
Fig. 2 is a flowchart of acquiring output data of all historical new energy power sources, generating a risk judgment value, and storing the risk judgment value as input data of a risk database in the new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 2, in one or more embodiments, preferably, the acquiring output data of all historical new energy power supplies, generating a risk judgment value, and storing the risk judgment value as input data of a risk database includes:
s201, obtaining all current historical new energy output data;
s202, obtaining future new energy output by using a first calculation formula;
s203, obtaining a risk judgment value by utilizing a second calculation formula according to the future new energy output;
the first calculation formula is:
Y＝a 1 x 1 +a 2 x 2 +a 3 x 3 +a 4 x 4
wherein Y is the future new energy output, a 1 、a 2 、a 3 、a 4 Respectively are preset 1 st, 2 nd, 3 th and 4 th coefficients, x 1 、x 2 、x 3 、x 4 Sequentially and respectively obtaining 1 st, 2 nd, 3 th and 4 th historical new energy output data;
the second calculation formula is:
wherein A is the risk judgment value, count [ means ] of]As a counting function, n is the total number of partitions, Y i For the ith partition future new energy output, P i Load demand for the ith partition.
In the embodiment of the invention, after all historical new energy data are input, future new energy processing data are generated, further judgment is carried out according to the future output data, automatic risk judgment values are generated by utilizing a mode that the future processing exceeds a preset value, and the judgment values are used for carrying out subsequent risk sequencing.
Fig. 3 is a flowchart of generating corresponding risk levels according to the risk judgment values and completing risk ranking by using the risk levels in the new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 3, in one or more embodiments, preferably, the generating a corresponding risk level according to the risk judgment value, and completing risk ranking by using the risk level includes:
s301, obtaining a risk grade by using a third calculation formula according to the risk judgment value;
s302, generating a risk sequence according to the risk grades in a descending sequence;
the third calculation formula is:
wherein B is the risk grade, A is the risk judgment value, K1 is a first risk margin, and K2 is a second risk margin.
In the embodiment of the invention, in order to enable all risks to be performed in a fixed sequence in the risk analysis process, risk levels are respectively generated according to different risk margins, and finally, risk sorting from small to large is performed according to the risk levels.
Fig. 4 is a flowchart of numbering according to the risk ranking and entering corresponding associated items and risk information in the new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 4, in one or more embodiments, preferably, the numbering is performed according to the risk ranking, and the entering of the corresponding associated items and the risk information specifically includes:
s401, establishing risk data according to the risk sequence and the corresponding risk type;
s402, uniquely numbering the risks and setting specific risk description of the risks;
and S403, associating the items for the risks.
In the embodiment of the invention, on the basis of setting the risk sequence, all risks are sequentially recorded and numbered, and corresponding risk information and corresponding associated items are set for all numbered risks.
Fig. 5 is a flowchart of acquiring policy quantity, voltage information, frequency information, and reserve capacity of a current system and generating a comprehensive risk indicator in a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 5, in one or more embodiments, preferably, the collecting policy quantity, voltage information, frequency information, and spare capacity of the current system, and generating a comprehensive risk indicator specifically include:
s501, obtaining a policy index by using a fourth calculation formula;
s502, obtaining a voltage index by using a fifth calculation formula;
s503, obtaining a frequency index by using a sixth calculation formula;
s504, obtaining a standby index by using a seventh calculation formula;
s505, obtaining a comprehensive risk index by using an eighth calculation formula according to the policy index, the voltage index, the frequency index and the standby index;
the fourth calculation formula is:
Z＝0.6C - -0.4C +
wherein, C - For the quantity of forward policies, C + Z is the policy indicator for a reverse policy quantity;
the fifth calculation formula is:
V f ＝count[(U1<V z- )||(V z+ <U2)]
wherein, V f For the voltage index, U1 and U2 are respectively the first and the second voltage margin V z- Is the minimum voltage value of unit time period, V z+ Is the maximum value of voltage per unit time period, count [ ]]Is a counting function;
the sixth calculation formula is:
F f ＝count[(F1<F z- )||(F z+ <F2)]
wherein, F f F1 and F2 are respectively a first frequency margin and a second frequency margin for the frequency index, F z- Is the minimum value of frequency per unit time period, F z+ Is the maximum value of unit time period frequency;
the seventh calculation formula is:
wherein p is, y b Is the reserve capacity, and Y is the reserve index;
the eighth calculation formula is:
H＝Z+V f +F f +Y
wherein H is the comprehensive risk index.
In the embodiment of the invention, in order to comprehensively process all risks in the current system, particularly to combine the frequency parameter, the capacity parameter and the voltage index in the power system with the policy condition in the calculation process for evaluation to generate the comprehensive risk index, the risk to the equipment is quantized, and the risk of the policy is also quantized.
Fig. 6 is a flowchart of performing an online approval of all risks to generate risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks in a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 6, in one or more embodiments, preferably, the performing online approval of all risks to generate risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks specifically includes:
s601, carrying out risk approval on the risk of the comprehensive risk index exceeding a preset value by the current account according to the current comprehensive risk index;
s602, after receiving the risk approval command, the superior user can see all risk information sent by the subordinate user;
and S603, after the risk information is received, generating specific different risk identification points and corresponding risk evaluation.
In the embodiment of the invention, a specific risk identification process is completed on line, a lower level unit sends a risk examination and approval command through quantified risks, an upper level user carries out examination and approval and specific risk data, risk identification points and risk evaluation data are generated.
Fig. 7 is a flowchart of storing all risk data and generating archived risk data in a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 7, in one or more embodiments, preferably, the storing all risk data and generating the archived risk data specifically include:
s701, setting a memory powered by ups;
s702, acquiring all risk storage data;
and S703, judging whether the risk storage data exceeds a preset storage margin or not, and storing the risk storage data into the memory if the risk storage data exceeds the preset storage margin.
In the embodiment of the invention, in order to ensure that the risk data are stored for a long time, the risk data are archived when the risk data exceed a certain margin. The archived data is stored in a mass storage.
Fig. 8 is a flowchart of inputting risk description information and risk numbers and querying for a risk report in the new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
As shown in fig. 8, in one or more embodiments, preferably, the inputting risk description information and risk number, and querying for obtaining a risk report specifically includes:
s801, acquiring risk description information, and performing information matching search;
s802, when the risk description information is searched for the same time, sending a first report command;
s803, acquiring a risk number, and performing information matching search;
s804, when the risk numbers are matched to be the same, a second report command is sent out;
and S805, generating a risk report according to the second report command, and if the second report command is not received, generating a risk report by using the first report command.
In the embodiment of the invention, report generation is carried out through one of risk description and risk number, in the actual implementation process, firstly, the risk report is directly obtained through the risk label, and when direct information is not obtained, the closest risk report is indirectly searched through the risk description.
Fig. 9 is a flowchart for automatically displaying all basic information of a risk report in a new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to an embodiment of the present invention, where the basic information includes a risk description, a risk management policy, and a risk countermeasure.
As shown in fig. 9, in one or more embodiments, preferably, the automatically displaying basic information of all risk reports includes a risk description, a risk management policy, and a risk countermeasure, and specifically includes:
s901, acquiring all basic information of the risk report;
s902, displaying the basic information of the risk report in a table form, and automatically displaying the basic information;
before the basic information of the risk report is set, a risk serial number is set, and a responsibility department, a responsible person and an estimated completion time corresponding to the basic information of the risk report are displayed.
In the embodiment of the invention, in order to realize the automatic risk display of different company projects in different areas, the projects are automatically displayed in a table form.
According to a second aspect of the embodiments of the present invention, a new energy project risk assessment and quantification system is provided.
Fig. 10 is a block diagram of a new energy project risk assessment and quantification system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
In one or more embodiments, preferably, the system for risk assessment and quantification of new energy projects includes:
the risk library module 1001 is used for acquiring output data of all historical new energy power supplies, generating a risk judgment value and storing the risk judgment value as input data of a risk library;
a risk ranking module 1002, configured to generate a corresponding risk level according to the risk judgment value, and complete risk ranking by using the risk level;
a custom risk warehousing module 1003, configured to number according to the risk ranking, and enter corresponding associated items and risk information;
a risk identification and evaluation module 1004, configured to collect policy quantity, voltage information, frequency information, and reserve capacity of a current system, and generate a comprehensive risk indicator;
a process approval module 1005, configured to perform online approval of all risks, and generate risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks;
a risk archiving module 1006, configured to store all risk data and generate risk archived data;
an assessment reporting module 1007, configured to input risk description information and a risk number, and query to obtain a risk report;
and the risk monitoring module 1008 is used for automatically displaying basic information of all risk reports, wherein the basic information comprises risk description, risk management strategy and risk response measures.
Fig. 11 is a schematic diagram of risk information data entry and editing of a new energy project risk assessment and quantification system according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 11, the risk categories, risk numbers obtained by numbering the risk ranks, whether the risks are important, risk states, risk descriptions, and the like are included. And comprehensive entry of risk information is realized.
The technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the invention can have the following beneficial effects:
1) in the embodiment of the invention, the comprehensive risk assessment of the new energy running state is carried out on line through the running state of the new energy and the new energy prediction of each subarea, so that the risk in the new energy execution process is effectively quantified.
2) In the embodiment of the invention, policy risks and new energy operation risks are combined to form a comprehensive risk evaluation system, so that the new energy execution process is evaluated more systematically.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made in the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Thus, if such modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is also intended to include such modifications and variations.
Claims (10)
1. A new energy project risk assessment and quantification method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring output data of all historical new energy power supplies, generating a risk judgment value, and storing the risk judgment value as input data of a risk library;
generating corresponding risk grades according to the risk judgment values, and finishing risk sequencing by utilizing the risk grades;
numbering according to the risk sequence, and inputting corresponding associated items and risk information;
acquiring the policy quantity, voltage information, frequency information and reserve capacity of the current system, and generating a comprehensive risk index;
performing on-line examination and approval of all risks to generate risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks;
storing all risk data to generate risk filing data;
inputting risk description information and risk numbers, and inquiring to obtain a risk report;
and automatically displaying basic information of all risk reports, wherein the basic information comprises risk description, risk management strategy and risk countermeasure.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the step of acquiring output data of all historical new energy sources and generating a risk judgment value to be stored as input data of a risk database comprises:
acquiring all current historical new energy output data;
obtaining future new energy output by using a first calculation formula;
obtaining a risk judgment value by utilizing a second calculation formula according to the future new energy output;
the first calculation formula is:
Y＝a 1 x 1 +a 2 x 2 +a 3 x 3 +a 4 x 4
wherein Y is the future new energy output, a 1 、a 2 、a 3 、a 4 Respectively are preset 1 st, 2 nd, 3 th and 4 th coefficients, x 1 、x 2 、x 3 、x 4 Sequentially and respectively obtaining 1 st, 2 nd, 3 th and 4 th historical new energy output data;
the second calculation formula is:
wherein A is the risk judgment value, count [ means ] of]As a counting function, n is the total number of partitions, Y i For the ith partition future new energy contribution, P i Load demand for the ith partition.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the step of generating a corresponding risk level according to the risk judgment value and completing risk ranking by using the risk level comprises:
obtaining a risk grade by using a third calculation formula according to the risk judgment value;
according to the risk grades, sorting from big to small, and generating a risk sort;
the third calculation formula is:
wherein, B is the risk grade, A is the risk judgment value, K1 is a first risk margin, and K2 is a second risk margin.
4. The new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to claim 1, wherein the numbering is performed according to the risk ranking, and corresponding associated projects and risk information are entered, specifically comprising:
establishing risk data according to the risk sequence and the corresponding risk type;
uniquely numbering the risks and setting specific risk description of the risks;
project associations are made for risks.
5. The method according to claim 1, wherein the collecting policy quantity, voltage information, frequency information and reserve capacity of the current system and generating the comprehensive risk indicator comprises:
obtaining a policy index by using a fourth calculation formula;
obtaining a voltage index by using a fifth calculation formula;
obtaining a frequency index by using a sixth calculation formula;
obtaining a standby index by using a seventh calculation formula;
obtaining a comprehensive risk index by using an eighth calculation formula according to the policy index, the voltage index, the frequency index and the standby index;
the fourth calculation formula is:
Z＝0.6C - -0.4C +
wherein, C - For the quantity of forward policies, C + Z is the policy indicator for a reverse policy quantity;
the fifth calculation formula is:
V f ＝count[(U1<V z- )||(V z+ <U2)]
wherein, V f For the voltage index, U1 and U2 are respectively the first and the second voltage margin V z- Is the minimum voltage value of unit time period, V z+ Is the maximum value of voltage per unit time period, count]Is a counting function;
the sixth calculation formula is:
F f ＝count[(F1<F z- )||(F z+ <F2)]
wherein, F f F1 and F2 are the first and second frequency margins, respectively, for the frequency index z- Is the minimum value of the frequency per unit time period, F z+ Is a unit time periodA maximum value of frequency;
the seventh calculation formula is:
wherein p is, y b Is the reserve capacity, and Y is the reserve index;
the eighth calculation formula is:
H＝Z+V f +F f +Y
wherein H is the comprehensive risk index.
6. The method for risk assessment and quantification of a new energy project according to claim 1, wherein the online examination and approval of all risks is performed to generate risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks, and specifically comprises:
carrying out risk approval on the risk of the comprehensive risk index exceeding a preset value by the current account according to the current comprehensive risk index;
after receiving the risk approval command, the superior user can see all the risk information sent by the subordinate user;
and after receiving the risk information, generating specific different risk identification points and corresponding risk evaluation.
7. The new energy project risk assessment and quantification method according to claim 1, wherein the storing of all risk data to generate risk archived data specifically comprises:
setting a memory powered by ups;
acquiring all risk storage data;
and judging whether the risk storage data exceeds a preset storage margin or not, and if so, storing the risk storage data into the memory.
8. The method according to claim 1, wherein the steps of inputting the risk description information and the risk number, and querying to obtain the risk report include:
acquiring risk description information, and performing information matching search;
when the risk description information searches are the same, a first report command is sent out;
acquiring a risk number, and performing information matching search;
when the risk numbers are matched to be the same, a second report command is sent;
and generating a risk report according to the second report command, and if the second report command is not received, generating a risk report by using the first report command.
9. The method according to claim 1, wherein basic information of all risk reports is automatically displayed, the basic information includes risk description, risk management policy, and risk countermeasure, and specifically includes:
acquiring basic information of all risk reports;
displaying the basic information of the risk report in a table form, and automatically displaying;
before the basic information of the risk report is set, a risk serial number is set, and a responsibility department, a responsible person and an estimated completion time corresponding to the basic information of the risk report are displayed.
10. A new energy project risk assessment and quantification system is characterized by comprising:
the risk library module is used for acquiring output data of all historical new energy power supplies, generating a risk judgment value and storing the risk judgment value as input data of a risk library;
the risk sorting module is used for generating a corresponding risk grade according to the risk judgment value and finishing risk sorting by utilizing the risk grade;
the user-defined risk warehousing module is used for numbering according to the risk sequence and inputting corresponding associated items and risk information;
the risk identification and evaluation module is used for acquiring the policy quantity, the voltage information, the frequency information and the reserve capacity of the current system and generating a comprehensive risk index;
the process approval module is used for performing on-line approval of all risks and generating risk identification points and risk evaluation data of different risks;
the risk archiving module is used for storing all risk data to generate risk archiving data;
the evaluation report module is used for inputting risk description information and risk numbers and inquiring to obtain a risk report;
and the risk monitoring module is used for automatically displaying basic information of all risk reports, wherein the basic information comprises risk description, risk management strategies and risk response measures.
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