CN115115318A - Dangerous goods transportation network planning method and system considering user path selection behavior - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a dangerous goods transportation network planning method and system considering user path selection behavior, comprising the following steps: based on the road information, predicting the user path selection behavior by applying an accumulative foreground theory and a plurality of Logit models, and determining the user path selection probability; obtaining transportation network risk distribution according to the user path selection probability, the probability and the consequence of each path accident in the alternative path and the network risk joint probability distribution model, measuring the transportation network risk distribution and obtaining the transportation network risk; and obtaining an optimal dangerous goods transportation network according to the transportation network risk, the candidate facility construction cost and a transportation network planning model, wherein the transportation network planning model takes the facility construction cost and the transportation network risk as the minimum as the target and takes the dependence on road availability, the coupling relation among roads and the number of road closures selected by a user as constraints. The network design of dangerous goods can be rapidly and effectively carried out, and high safety and reliability are simultaneously met.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of dangerous goods transportation risk management, in particular to a dangerous goods transportation network planning method and system considering user path selection behaviors.
Background
The statements in this section merely provide background information related to the present disclosure and may not necessarily constitute prior art.
As an important material for promoting the development of industrial society, dangerous goods have high potential safety hazards in the transportation process, and reasonably planning available networks for dangerous goods transportation is an effective way for reducing the transportation risk, and the method comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of determining the best dangerous goods infrastructure position and limiting the availability of certain high-risk road sections to transport vehicles, namely road prohibition measures, wherein the prohibited road sections do not allow the dangerous goods transport vehicles to pass through, so that the dangerous goods transport vehicles are interfered, and the transport risk is reduced.
At present, the research on the design of the dangerous goods transportation network has primary results, and some documents establish a double-layer optimization model of the design of the dangerous goods transportation network by using a robust optimization idea so as to minimize the transportation risk under the worst condition; some documents design an optimal dangerous goods transportation network with balanced risk based on a fairness concept. However, the existing research mainly uses the deterministic shortest-path problem to predict the route selection of the transport vehicle, the uncertainty and the risk attitude of the user selection behavior under the dynamic environment are not considered, and most researches consider the single addressing problem or road prohibitions and lack the joint optimization of the two, so that the predicted transportation network of the dangerous goods is not the optimal transportation network.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention provides a dangerous goods transportation network planning method and system considering user path selection behaviors, and when the dangerous goods transportation network is planned, factors such as facility address selection, user path selection, facility construction cost, road prohibition measures, road accident occurrence probability and consequences and the like are considered, so that the optimal dangerous goods transportation network can be obtained.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
in a first aspect, a dangerous goods transportation network planning method considering user path selection behavior is provided, which includes:
acquiring a transportation starting point position, a candidate facility position, road travel cost distribution, candidate facility construction cost and the probability and consequence of accidents of each road section;
determining an alternative path for the transport vehicle from the transport origin location to the candidate facility location;
calculating a foreground value of each alternative path according to the road travel cost distribution, and determining the user path selection probability according to the foreground value of each alternative path;
obtaining transportation network risk distribution according to the user path selection probability, the probability and the consequence of each path accident in the alternative path and the network risk joint probability distribution model, measuring the transportation network risk distribution and obtaining the transportation network risk;
and obtaining an optimal dangerous goods transportation network according to the transportation network risk, the candidate facility construction cost and a transportation network planning model, wherein the transportation network planning model takes the facility construction cost and the transportation network risk as the minimum as the target and takes the dependence on road availability, the coupling relation among roads and the number of road closures selected by a user as constraints.
In a second aspect, a system for planning a transportation network of hazardous materials in consideration of a user path selection behavior is provided, which includes:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring the position of a transportation starting point, the position of a candidate facility, the road travel cost distribution, the construction cost of the candidate facility and the probability and the consequence of the accident of each road section;
the alternative path acquisition module is used for determining alternative paths from the transportation starting point position to the candidate facility position of the transportation vehicle;
the route selection probability acquisition module is used for calculating the foreground value of each alternative route according to the road travel cost distribution and determining the user route selection probability according to the foreground value of each alternative route;
the transportation network risk acquisition module is used for acquiring transportation network risk distribution according to the user path selection probability, the probability and the consequence of the accident of each section in the alternative path and the network risk joint probability distribution model, measuring the transportation network risk distribution and acquiring the transportation network risk;
and the optimal dangerous goods transportation network acquisition module is used for acquiring an optimal dangerous goods transportation network according to the transportation network risk, the candidate facility construction cost and the transportation network planning model, wherein the transportation network planning model aims at minimizing the facility construction cost and the transportation network risk, and the dependence on road availability, the coupling relation among roads and the number of road closures selected by a user are used as constraints.
In a third aspect, an electronic device is provided, which includes a memory, a processor, and computer instructions stored in the memory and executed on the processor, where the computer instructions, when executed by the processor, perform the steps of the method for planning a transportation network of hazardous articles in consideration of user routing behavior.
In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium is provided for storing computer instructions, which when executed by a processor, perform the steps of the method for planning a transportation network of hazardous materials taking into account user routing behavior.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. after analyzing the user path selection behavior and obtaining the user path selection probability, the invention determines the transport network risk according to the user path selection probability, the probability and the consequence of the accident of each road section; according to the transportation network risk, the candidate facility construction cost and the transportation network planning model, the optimal dangerous goods transportation network is determined, wherein the transportation network planning model aims at minimizing the facility construction cost and the transportation network risk, and takes the dependence on road availability, the coupling relation among roads and the number of road closures selected by a user as constraints.
2. According to the invention, when the transportation network planning model is solved through an algorithm based on Benders decomposition, when a secant plane is added to a main problem, the secant planes generated by sub-problems taking a transportation starting point and a candidate terminal point facility as indexes are combined into one secant plane, before the algorithm starts, an effective inequality is added in the main problem to relax, the lower bound of the initial solution of the main problem is improved, the sub-problems are screened, and the sub-problems which are not required to be solved are skipped, so that the calculation speed is improved.
Advantages of additional aspects of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the application and, together with the description, serve to explain the application and are not intended to limit the application.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method disclosed in example 1;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of an initial network of dangerous goods transportation roads and candidate facility locations in example 1;
fig. 3 is a diagram of the optimal transportation network for dangerous goods obtained in example 1.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described with reference to the following figures and examples.
It should be noted that the following detailed description is exemplary and is intended to provide further explanation of the disclosure. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of example embodiments according to the present application. As used herein, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, and it should be understood that when the terms "comprises" and/or "comprising" are used in this specification, they specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, devices, components, and/or combinations thereof, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
Example 1
In this embodiment, a hazardous material transportation network planning method considering user path selection behavior is disclosed, which includes:
acquiring the position of a transportation starting point, the position of a candidate facility, road travel cost distribution, the construction cost of the candidate facility and the probability and the consequence of the accident of each road section;
determining an alternative path for the transport vehicle from the transport origin location to the candidate facility location;
calculating a foreground value of each alternative path according to the road travel cost distribution, and determining the user path selection probability according to the foreground value of each alternative path;
obtaining transportation network risk distribution according to the user path selection probability, the probability and the consequence of each path accident in the alternative path and the network risk joint probability distribution model, measuring the transportation network risk distribution and obtaining the transportation network risk;
and obtaining an optimal dangerous goods transportation network according to the transportation network risk, the candidate facility construction cost and a transportation network planning model, wherein the transportation network planning model takes the facility construction cost and the transportation network risk as the minimum as the target and takes the dependence on road availability, the coupling relation among roads and the number of road closures selected by a user as constraints.
The method for planning a transportation network of hazardous materials considering the user path selection behavior disclosed in this embodiment is described in detail with reference to fig. 1 to 3.
The dangerous goods transportation network planning method considering the user path selection behavior comprises the following steps:
s1: and acquiring the position of the transportation starting point, the position of the candidate facility, the road travel distribution, the construction cost of the candidate facility and the probability and the consequence of the accident of each road section.
In specific implementation, road information is obtained, wherein the road information comprises a transportation starting point position, a candidate facility position, road travel distribution, candidate facility construction cost and probability and consequence of accident occurrence of each road section
S2: an alternate path for the transport vehicle from the transport origin location to the candidate facility location is determined.
In particular implementation, the K-shortest path algorithm is used to determine alternative paths for the transportation vehicles from the transportation starting point location to the candidate facility location, and the initial dangerous goods transportation road network and the candidate facility location map shown in FIG. 2 are obtained.
S3: and calculating the foreground value of each alternative path according to the road travel cost distribution, and determining the user path selection probability according to the foreground value of each alternative path.
In specific implementation, according to the road travel cost distribution, the foreground value of each alternative path is calculated by using an accumulative foreground theory.
And analyzing the foreground value of each alternative path through a plurality of Logit models to determine the user path selection probability. Wherein, the multiple Logit models that adopt are:
wherein I represents a set of starting points, J represents a set of candidate facilities, and K ij For the set of alternative paths between i-j,
probability of selecting the kth path for the user when transporting from the starting point i to the facility j;
is the foreground value of the kth path from the starting point i to the facility j;
and the k-th route is available when the user transports from the starting point i to the facility j, and the available route is 1, otherwise, the available route is 0. When the path k is unavailable due to road prohibition, its selection probability is 0.
S4: and obtaining the transport network risk distribution according to the user path selection probability, the probability and the consequence of the accident of each section in the alternative path and the network risk joint probability distribution model, and measuring the transport network risk distribution to obtain the transport network risk.
In specific implementation, according to historical data statistics, the accident occurrence probability and consequence corresponding to each road section in the alternative path are obtained, and a network risk joint probability distribution model is constructed by combining the user path selection probability. Because each vehicle is operated independently and can be considered as independent, the constructed network risk joint probability distribution model is as follows:
wherein R is risk distribution of the transportation network, A is arc set in the network, and c a As a consequence of an accident on the section a, p a For section a accident probability, q i For the number of trucks from the starting point i,
for the road coupling parameter, the value is 1 when the road segment a belongs to the path k, otherwise it is 0.
Using a condition risk value (CVaR) theory to perform risk evasion type measurement on the transport network risk distribution so as to improve the reliability of the solution and obtain the transport network risk CVaR α (R)。
The conditional risk value (CVaR) theory is:
in the formula, alpha is the risk attitude of a network design manager, and the more conservative the attitude of a decision maker is, the closer alpha is to 1, otherwise, the closer alpha is to 0; η is the quantile corresponding to α, or VaR.
S5: and obtaining an optimal dangerous goods transportation network according to the transportation network risk, the candidate facility construction cost and a transportation network planning model, wherein the transportation network planning model takes the facility construction cost and the transportation network risk as the minimum as the target and takes the dependence on road availability, the coupling relation among roads and the number of road closures selected by a user as constraints.
In specific implementation, a transportation network planning model is constructed by taking minimum facility construction cost and transportation network risk as targets and taking the dependence relation of users on road availability, the coupling relation among roads, the number of closed roads and the like as constraints.
The objective function of the transportation network planning model is:
in the formula (f) j For the construction cost of facility j, Y j The decision of whether to open facility j is 1, otherwise 0.
Regarding the coupling relationship between roads, after a road segment is prohibited, the alternative route where the road segment is located is not available, that is, the alternative route is only available when all road segments on a certain alternative route are available, and the coupling relationship between the corresponding roads is constrained as follows:
in the formula, S ij If the facility j is served by the vehicle of the starting point i, the value is 1, otherwise the value is 0, X a If the forbidden command is implemented on the road section a, the forbidden command is 0, otherwise, the forbidden command is 1.
The user selects a dependency constraint on road availability as:
the constraint on the number of closed paths is as follows:
in the formula, N is the number of road segments for which road prohibition is executed.
And substituting the acquired transport network risk and the candidate facility construction cost into the constructed transport network planning model, and solving by using an algorithm based on Benders decomposition to obtain the optimal dangerous goods transport network.
The Benders decomposition algorithm is a kind of precise algorithm and is used for solving the mixed integer programming problem, and the customized solving strategy for the transportation network programming model is formulated based on the Benders decomposition framework.
The transportation network planning model solving is divided into two steps, firstly, eta is selected by using a one-dimensional searching method, then the eta is fixed, and the remaining Mixed Integer Planning (MIP) is solved.
Bilinear terms using McCormick envelope method
Linearizing, then establishing a relaxed main problem composed of integer variables and a linear programming subproblem taking the main problem variables as parameters i∈I ∑ j∈J I K i independent sub-problems.
In executing the Benders decomposition algorithm, the calculation speed is improved by the following strategy:
combining cutting planes: when adding a cut plane to the main problem, the cut planes generated by the sub-problems indexed by the transportation origin i and the candidate facility j are merged into one cut plane. Namely:
in the formula, g is the projection of the subproblem objective function in the main problem, and λ, μ and ν are the dual variables of the subproblem.
The effective inequality: before the algorithm starts, all the initial selection probabilities of the unavailable paths are transferred to the path with the minimum risk, inequalities are added to the main problem, and the lower bound of the initial solution of the main problem is improved.
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
q is a very large positive real number. Road prohibitions affect the path selection probability, and when one path is unavailable, the selection probability is 0, which means that the initial selection probability of the path is transferred to other paths. The right side of the inequality indicates that the initial selection probabilities of the unavailable paths are all transferred to the path with the minimum risk, so that the inequality is a lower limit measure of the risk and can improve the initial lower limit.
And (3) sub-problem screening: and skipping over the sub-problems which are not required to be solved, solving the corresponding sub-problem dual problem only when the vehicle with the candidate terminal point facility as the starting point in the main problem variable provides service, and directly skipping over the solving of the corresponding sub-problem dual problem when the vehicle with the candidate terminal point facility as the starting point in the main problem variable does not provide service, and directly fixing the objective function value in the transportation network planning model to be 0.
Specifically, the sub-problem target value is a measure of risk, when the variable S of the main problem ij When 0, there is no hazardous material transport between i-j, so no risk is created and the subproblem objective function is 0. During execution of the Benders decomposition algorithm, only the main problem variable S is used ij When 1, the corresponding subproblem dual problem is solved, when S is ij When the value is 0, the solution of the dual problem of the corresponding subproblem is directly skipped, and the objective function value is directly fixed to 0.
The method disclosed in this embodiment is described by taking the network shown in fig. 2 as an example, where the network shown in fig. 2 includes 90 nodes and 149 undirected arcs, 10 transportation starting points are screened, 5 candidate facility locations are screened, the maximum number of road segments for executing the ban is 6, and the method disclosed in this embodiment is used to perform solution, so as to obtain the optimal transportation network of the dangerous goods and the implementation location of the road ban corresponding to the case where α is 0.995 and α is 0.95, as shown in (a) (b) in fig. 3.
In the method for planning the transportation network of the hazardous articles in consideration of the user path selection behavior, after the user path selection behavior is analyzed to obtain the user path selection probability, the transportation network risk is determined according to the user path selection probability, the probability and the consequence of the accident of each road section; according to the transportation network risk, the candidate facility construction cost and the transportation network planning model, an optimal dangerous goods transportation network is determined, wherein the transportation network planning model aims at minimizing the facility construction cost and the transportation network risk, and takes the dependence on road availability, the coupling relation among roads and the number of road closures selected by a user as constraints; in addition, in the embodiment, when the transportation network planning model is solved through the algorithm based on Benders decomposition, when a cutting plane is added to the main problem, the cutting planes generated by the sub-problems taking the transportation starting point and the candidate end point facilities as indexes are combined into one cutting plane, and before the algorithm starts, the initial selection probability of the unavailable path is completely transferred to the path with the minimum risk, so that the lower bound of the initial solution of the main problem is improved, the sub-problems are screened, and the sub-problems which are not required to be solved are skipped, thereby improving the calculation speed.
Example 2
In this embodiment, a dangerous goods transportation network planning system considering user path selection behavior is disclosed, which includes:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring the position of a transportation starting point, the position of a candidate facility, the road travel cost distribution, the construction cost of the candidate facility and the probability and the consequence of the accident of each road section;
the alternative path acquisition module is used for determining alternative paths from the transportation starting point position to the candidate facility position of the transportation vehicle;
the route selection probability acquisition module is used for calculating the foreground value of each alternative route according to the road travel cost distribution and determining the user route selection probability according to the foreground value of each alternative route;
the transportation network risk acquisition module is used for acquiring transportation network risk distribution according to the user path selection probability, the probability and the consequence of the accident of each section in the alternative path and the network risk joint probability distribution model, measuring the transportation network risk distribution and acquiring the transportation network risk;
and the optimal dangerous goods transportation network acquisition module is used for acquiring an optimal dangerous goods transportation network according to the transportation network risk, the candidate facility construction cost and the transportation network planning model, wherein the transportation network planning model aims at minimizing the facility construction cost and the transportation network risk, and the dependence on road availability, the coupling relation among roads and the number of road closures selected by a user are used as constraints.
Example 3
In this embodiment, an electronic device is disclosed, which includes a memory, a processor, and computer instructions stored in the memory and executed on the processor, where the computer instructions, when executed by the processor, perform the steps of the method for planning a transportation network of hazardous articles in consideration of user routing behavior disclosed in embodiment 1.
Example 4
In this embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium is disclosed for storing computer instructions which, when executed by a processor, perform the steps of the method for planning a transportation network of hazardous materials considering user routing behavior disclosed in embodiment 1.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.
Claims (10)
1. The dangerous goods transportation network planning method considering the user path selection behavior is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring the position of a transportation starting point, the position of a candidate facility, road travel cost distribution, the construction cost of the candidate facility and the probability and the consequence of the accident of each road section;
determining an alternative path for the transport vehicle from the transport origin location to the candidate facility location;
calculating a foreground value of each alternative path according to the road travel cost distribution, and determining the user path selection probability according to the foreground value of each alternative path;
obtaining transportation network risk distribution according to the user path selection probability, the probability and the consequence of each path accident in the alternative path and the network risk joint probability distribution model, measuring the transportation network risk distribution and obtaining the transportation network risk;
and obtaining an optimal dangerous goods transportation network according to the transportation network risk, the candidate facility construction cost and a transportation network planning model, wherein the transportation network planning model takes the facility construction cost and the transportation network risk as the minimum as the target and takes the dependence on road availability, the coupling relation among roads and the number of road closures selected by a user as constraints.
2. The method for planning a transportation network of hazardous materials taking into account user path selection behavior of claim 1, wherein the alternative path of the transportation vehicle from the transportation origin location to the candidate facility location is determined using a K-shortest path algorithm.
3. The method for planning a transportation network of dangerous goods with consideration of user path selection behavior according to claim 1, wherein the foreground value of each alternative path is analyzed through a plurality of Logit models to determine the user path selection probability.
4. The method for planning a transportation network of hazardous materials taking into account user path selection behavior according to claim 1, wherein the transportation network planning model is:
in the formula (f) j For the construction cost of facility j, Y j Cvara (r) is transport network risk, opening is 1, otherwise 0, for decision on whether to open facility j;
for the foreground value of the kth path between the starting point i to the facility j,
indicating whether the k-th route is available when the user transports from the starting point i to the facility j, the available route is 1, otherwise, the available route is 0,
probability of selecting the K-th route for a user when transporting from origin I to facility J, I representing a set of origins, J representing a set of candidate facilities, K ij For the set of alternative paths between i-j,
as road coupling parameters, S ij If the facility j is served by the vehicle of the starting point i, the value is 1, otherwise the value is 0, X a If the forbidden command is implemented on the road section a, the forbidden command is 0, otherwise, the forbidden command is 1; n is the number of road segments for which road prohibitions are executed.
5. The method for planning a transportation network of dangerous goods taking into account user path selection behavior as claimed in claim 1, wherein the acquired transportation network risk and candidate facility construction cost are substituted into the constructed transportation network planning model, and an algorithm based on Benders' decomposition is used for solving to obtain the optimal transportation network of dangerous goods.
6. The method for planning transportation network of dangerous goods taking into account user path selection behavior according to claim 5, wherein when solving using an algorithm based on Benders' decomposition, when adding a cut plane to the main problem, the cut planes generated by the subproblems indexed by the transportation origin and the candidate facility are merged into one cut plane, and before the algorithm starts, the initial selection probability of the unavailable path is entirely transferred to the path with the smallest risk.
7. The method of claim 5, wherein when solving using an algorithm based on Benders' decomposition, the corresponding sub-problem dual problem is solved only when the vehicle with the candidate end-point facility as a starting point in the main problem variable provides service, and when the vehicle with the candidate end-point facility as a starting point in the main problem variable does not provide service, the solution of the corresponding sub-problem dual problem is directly skipped, and the objective function value in the transportation network planning model is directly fixed to 0.
8. The dangerous goods transportation network planning system considering the user path selection behavior is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring the position of a transportation starting point, the position of a candidate facility, the road travel cost distribution, the construction cost of the candidate facility and the probability and the consequence of the accident of each road section;
the alternative path acquisition module is used for determining alternative paths from the transportation starting point position to the candidate facility position of the transportation vehicle;
the route selection probability acquisition module is used for calculating the foreground value of each alternative route according to the road travel cost distribution and determining the user route selection probability according to the foreground value of each alternative route;
the transportation network risk acquisition module is used for acquiring transportation network risk distribution according to the user path selection probability, the probability and the consequence of the accident of each section in the alternative path and the network risk joint probability distribution model, measuring the transportation network risk distribution and acquiring the transportation network risk;
and the optimal dangerous goods transportation network acquisition module is used for acquiring an optimal dangerous goods transportation network according to the transportation network risk, the candidate facility construction cost and the transportation network planning model, wherein the transportation network planning model takes the minimum facility construction cost and the minimum transportation network risk as a target, and takes the dependency relationship of the user selection on the road availability, the coupling relationship among the roads and the number of the closed roads as constraints.
9. An electronic device comprising a memory and a processor and computer instructions stored on the memory and executed on the processor, the computer instructions, when executed by the processor, performing the steps of the method for planning a transportation network of hazardous materials taking into account user routing behavior of any of claims 1-7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions which, when executed by a processor, perform the steps of the method for planning a transportation network of hazardous materials taking into account user routing behavior of any of claims 1 to 7.
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