CN115065097A - Uncertainty-considering light-storage station intra-day power reporting method and device - Google Patents

Uncertainty-considering light-storage station intra-day power reporting method and device Download PDF

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CN115065097A
CN115065097A CN202210871898.4A CN202210871898A CN115065097A CN 115065097 A CN115065097 A CN 115065097A CN 202210871898 A CN202210871898 A CN 202210871898A CN 115065097 A CN115065097 A CN 115065097A
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power
day
reporting
photovoltaic power
moment
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刘淑军
王博
王金仕
庄炜焕
姜添元
章超
王世静
古含
赵伟然
卜晓坤
王存
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China Three Gorges Renewables Group Co Ltd
Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute Co Ltd
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China Three Gorges Renewables Group Co Ltd
Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute Co Ltd
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    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/004—Generation forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future energy generation
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/28—Arrangements for balancing of the load in a network by storage of energy
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
    • H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2300/00—Systems for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by decentralized, dispersed, or local generation
    • H02J2300/20—The dispersed energy generation being of renewable origin
    • H02J2300/22—The renewable source being solar energy
    • H02J2300/24—The renewable source being solar energy of photovoltaic origin

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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention relates to a method and a device for reporting day-to-day power of an optical-storage station, which take uncertainty into account, wherein the method comprises the following steps: calculating the error between the photovoltaic power predicted value in the day and the historical power predicted value; constructing a day-to-day photovoltaic power scene set based on the errors; constructing a day light-storage power reporting model for calculating and correcting energy storage; and solving the daily light-storage power reporting model to obtain a daily power reporting result. According to the technical scheme of the embodiment of the invention, a solar photovoltaic power scene is constructed by utilizing a Cornish-Fisher series, so that a power optimization reporting model of the light-storage station is established, a reporting strategy is formulated, a solving scheme is given out, and a support system is provided for the operation efficiency and robustness of the light-storage station.

Description

Uncertainty-considered light-storage station intra-day power reporting method and device
Technical Field
The embodiment of the invention relates to the technical field of new energy station networking performance, in particular to an uncertainty-considered method and device for reporting the day-to-day power of an optical-storage station.
Background
With the access of large-scale new energy, the power supply structure of the power system is changing over the sky and the earth. According to the related information of the online news distribution meeting in the first quarter of 2022 of the national energy agency, the installed scale of renewable energy resources in China breaks through 10 hundred million kilowatts in 2021, and the installed scale of newly-added renewable energy resources is 1.34 hundred million kilowatts. 4757 thousands kilowatts are newly added to wind power, and the total installed power reaches 3.28 hundred million kilowatts; the photovoltaic power generation is increased by 5488 kilo kilowatts, and the total installed amount reaches 3.06 hundred million kilowatts. The two account for 27 percent and 31.1 percent of the newly added generating capacity and 13.8 percent and 12.9 percent of the total installed capacity of the power generation respectively.
The photovoltaic is used as a representative new energy source for power generation, and due to the characteristics of randomness and volatility, when the photovoltaic is connected to a power grid in a large scale, burden is brought to the power and electric quantity balance of a system. Therefore, how to promote safe consumption of photovoltaic and improve the economy of photovoltaic stations become the current topic of intense research. On one hand, each local power grid has a new power plant grid-connected operation management and auxiliary service management implementation rule (hereinafter referred to as two rules), and the photovoltaic power plant is promoted to improve the forecasting accuracy from the perspective of forecasting and reporting. According to the method, the predicted power reported to the power grid by the photovoltaic power station is counted, the deviation electric quantity is calculated, so that examination is carried out, and the deviation punishment cost is charged to the photovoltaic power station. On the other hand, the photovoltaic power station is configured with distributed energy storage to form a light-storage system, which is beneficial to stabilizing photovoltaic fluctuation and provides margin for arrangement of reported power. Therefore, the reasonable optimization of the reporting power of the optical-storage station is beneficial to improving the economic efficiency of the whole operation of the optical-storage station.
Disclosure of Invention
Based on the above situation in the prior art, an object of the embodiments of the present invention is to provide a method and an apparatus for reporting light-storage station intra-day power, which take uncertainty into consideration, and construct an intra-day photovoltaic power scene by using a Cornish-Fisher series, thereby establishing a light-storage station power optimization reporting model, formulating a reporting strategy, and providing support for the operating efficiency and robustness of the light-storage station.
To achieve the above object, according to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided an uncertainty-based optical-storage site intra-day power reporting method, the method including:
calculating the error between the photovoltaic power predicted value in the day and the historical power predicted value;
constructing a day-to-day photovoltaic power scene set based on the errors;
constructing a daily light-storage power reporting model for taking account of energy storage correction by utilizing a daily photovoltaic power scene set;
and solving the daily light-storage power reporting model to obtain a daily power reporting result.
Further, the predicted value of the photovoltaic power within a day is obtained according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003761280160000021
wherein N is s Predicting the step number; n is a radical of Tdown And N Tup For predicting or reporting the time of the start and the end, H (.) represents a prediction model, isThe preset known quantity beta is a trained prediction model parameter; z t For the input vector for the prediction at time t of day,
Figure BDA0003761280160000022
and (5) the photovoltaic power predicted value of the step s at the moment t.
Further, the error is obtained according to the following formula:
e d，t，s ＝p d，t，s -H(Z d，t ，β)，d＝1，2，...，N d
wherein N is d Total days for training; z d,t An input vector at the tth moment of the historical day d; p is a radical of d,t,s 、e d,t,s And respectively representing the actual photovoltaic power and the prediction error corresponding to the prediction time of the step s at the tth time of the historical day d.
Further, an intra-day photovoltaic power scene set is constructed according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003761280160000023
wherein, P t,s,i Is the photovoltaic power, Δ p, of the ith scene at time t, step s s,i The photovoltaic power of the ith scene at the step s at the moment t.
Further, the light-storage power reporting model in the day is as follows:
Figure BDA0003761280160000024
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure BDA0003761280160000025
punishment is carried out on total check electric quantity in the day;
Figure BDA0003761280160000026
and
Figure BDA0003761280160000027
for the ith sceneChecking the electric quantity in and before the day; c. C 1 And c 2 And (4) the penalty coefficient of the electric quantity assessed in days and before days, and NI represents the total scene number.
Further, the solving includes:
solving the model with x as variable based on constraint condition,
Figure BDA0003761280160000031
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003761280160000032
is a decision variable and represents the reported power at the 16 th point at the t +16 moment in the day,
Figure BDA0003761280160000033
the in-day reporting accuracy of the ith scene in the day,
Figure BDA0003761280160000034
for the day-to-day assessment electric quantity in the ith scene,
Figure BDA0003761280160000035
for the current electric quantity of the examination in the ith scene,
Figure BDA0003761280160000036
the energy storage discharge power and the discharge state variable at the moment t +1,
Figure BDA0003761280160000037
the energy storage charging power and the charging state variable are stored at the moment t +1,
Figure BDA0003761280160000038
and storing residual energy for the t +1 moment.
Further, the constraint conditions include:
Figure BDA0003761280160000039
Figure BDA00037612801600000310
Figure BDA00037612801600000311
Figure BDA00037612801600000312
Figure BDA00037612801600000313
wherein, P d,max And P c,max Respectively the maximum charging power and the maximum discharging power,
Figure BDA00037612801600000314
the remaining energy is stored for the time t +1,
Figure BDA00037612801600000315
and with
Figure BDA00037612801600000316
Respectively storing energy, discharging and charging state binary variables at the moment of t + 1;
Figure BDA00037612801600000317
and
Figure BDA00037612801600000318
storing energy, discharging and charging power at the time of t + 1;
Figure BDA00037612801600000319
for the energy to be stored at the moment t,
Figure BDA00037612801600000320
the total energy stored is the total energy; eta c 、η d For charging and discharging efficiency, mu up 、μ down The upper and lower limit coefficients of the energy storage energy are obtained; mu.s deep Is the depth of discharge coefficient.
Further, the daily power reporting result is obtained according to the following steps:
obtaining a photovoltaic power scene in the starting day at the moment t, wherein t is N Tdown -15；
Solving the model;
updating and recording the reported power of t +16 and the charge-discharge power stored at the moment of t + 1;
let t be t + 1;
judging whether t +1 is equal to N Tup If yes, obtaining a daily power reporting result; and if not, enabling t to be t +1, and starting the construction, model construction and solving of the intra-day photovoltaic power scene set at the next moment.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided an optical-storage station day power reporting apparatus for accounting for uncertainty, comprising:
the error calculation module is used for calculating the error between the photovoltaic power predicted value in the day and the historical power predicted value;
the intra-day photovoltaic power scene set building module is used for building an intra-day photovoltaic power scene set based on errors;
the power reporting model construction module is used for constructing a light-storage power reporting model in the day, which takes the energy storage correction into account;
and the daily power reporting result calculating module is used for solving the daily light-storage power reporting model to obtain a daily power reporting result.
In summary, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method and an apparatus for reporting an intra-day power of an optical-storage site, which takes uncertainty into account, where the method includes: calculating the error between the photovoltaic power predicted value in the day and the historical power predicted value; constructing a day-to-day photovoltaic power scene set based on the errors; constructing a day light-storage power reporting model for energy storage correction; and solving the daily light-storage power reporting model to obtain a daily power reporting result. According to the technical scheme of the embodiment of the invention, a solar photovoltaic power scene is constructed by utilizing a Cornish-Fisher series, so that a power optimization reporting model of the light-storage station is established, a reporting strategy is formulated, a solving scheme is given out, and support is provided for the operation efficiency and robustness of the light-storage station.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for reporting day-to-day power of an optical-storage site, which is provided by an embodiment of the present invention and takes uncertainty into account;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the optical-electrical storage station rolling optimization reporting within a day;
FIG. 3 is a flowchart of the intra-day rolling optimization reporting of the optical-electrical storage station;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of the actual value of the solar photovoltaic power, the forecast value before the day and the forecast value of the ultra-short term step 16 in the day;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a day ultra-short term 16-step prediction error scenario set;
fig. 6 is a schematic diagram of daily optimized reporting results.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings in conjunction with the following detailed description. It should be understood that the description is intended to be exemplary only, and is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Moreover, in the following description, descriptions of well-known structures and techniques are omitted so as to not unnecessarily obscure the concepts of the present invention.
It is to be understood that unless otherwise defined, technical or scientific terms used in one or more embodiments of the present invention shall have the ordinary meaning as understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this disclosure belongs. The use of "first," "second," and similar terms in one or more embodiments of the invention are not intended to indicate any order, quantity, or importance, but rather are used to distinguish one element from another. The word "comprising" or "comprises", and the like, means that the element or item listed before the word covers the element or item listed after the word and its equivalents, but does not exclude other elements or items. The terms "connected" or "coupled" and the like are not restricted to physical or mechanical connections, but may include electrical connections, whether direct or indirect. "upper", "lower", "left", "right", and the like are used merely to indicate relative positional relationships, and when the absolute position of the object being described is changed, the relative positional relationships may also be changed accordingly.
The technical solution of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The embodiment of the invention provides an uncertainty-considered method for reporting the day-to-day power of an optical-storage station, and a flow chart of the method is shown in fig. 1, and the method comprises the following steps:
and S102, calculating the error between the photovoltaic power predicted value and the historical power predicted value in the day. And selecting historical samples, such as a photovoltaic power predicted value sample and an actual value sample within a day of a year, and subtracting the corresponding predicted value from the actual value to obtain a prediction error at the corresponding moment. In the step, statistics of the photovoltaic power prediction value and historical prediction error in the day and ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction in the day are carried out, the photovoltaic power of 16 steps (15 min is taken as time resolution) in four hours in the future is predicted in the embodiment of the invention, and the prediction is obtained by the trained model prediction shown in the formula (1):
Figure BDA0003761280160000051
wherein N is s To predict the number of steps, 16 steps are used in this embodiment of the invention; n is a radical of Tdown And N Tup In order to predict or report the starting and ending moments, considering that the photovoltaic output is only exerted in the daytime, in this embodiment of the invention, N is taken Tdown Is 8, N Tup Is 20; h (.) represents a prediction model, which is a preset known model; beta is a trained prediction model parameter; z t For the input vector for the prediction at time t of day,
Figure BDA0003761280160000052
and (5) the photovoltaic power predicted value of the step s at the moment t. By counting the historical 16-step predicted power and the corresponding actual power, the prediction error of the historical photovoltaic power can be obtained by the following equation (2):
e d，t，s ＝p d，t，s -H(Z d，t ，β)，d＝1，2，...，N d (2)
wherein N is d Total days for training; z d,t An input vector at the tth moment of the historical day d; p is a radical of formula d,t,s 、e d,t,s And respectively representing the actual photovoltaic power and the prediction error corresponding to the prediction time of the step s at the tth time of the historical day d.
And S104, constructing a day-to-day photovoltaic power scene set based on the errors. Based on the content of step 1, the quantile of the prediction error cumulative probability function (CDF) of step s can be obtained by using a Cornish-Fisher series expansion including fifth-order cumulant, as shown in formulas (3) to (9):
Figure BDA0003761280160000061
Figure BDA0003761280160000062
Figure BDA0003761280160000063
Figure BDA0003761280160000064
Figure BDA0003761280160000065
Figure BDA0003761280160000066
Figure BDA0003761280160000067
wherein, mu s And σ s Respectively generation by generationMean and standard deviation of prediction error in step s of table, u s,3 、u s,4 、u s,5 Respectively the third, fourth and fifth order origin moments of the prediction error in the step s;
Figure BDA0003761280160000068
F s,q q quantites of the prediction error CDF of step s after normalization and de-normalization, respectively. Utilizing Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) to carry out equal probability interval sampling on CDF of the prediction error of the step s to obtain the product containing N I Error scene set of each quantile, which is equivalent to the order in equations (8) - (9)
Figure BDA0003761280160000069
Substituting to calculate to obtain corresponding F s,q I.e. the ith prediction scenario Δ p s,i . To obtain P t,s,i For the photovoltaic power deltap of the ith scene at the time t and the step s s,i And then, superposing the power with the predicted power of the s step at the t moment in the day to obtain a photovoltaic power scene set in the day, as shown in the formula (10):
Figure BDA0003761280160000071
wherein, P t,s,i The photovoltaic power of the ith scene at the step s at the moment t.
And S106, constructing a solar light-storage power reporting model for taking energy storage correction into consideration by using the solar photovoltaic power scene set. In step S102, the prediction error at each prediction time step is counted, in step S104, a corresponding probability distribution/scene set is constructed from the prediction errors, and in step S106, a model is constructed using the scene set. Considering that the two existing detailed rules make assessment requirements on the photovoltaic power in the day and the day, the day reporting curve is also required to be considered when the day reporting is carried out, and the optimal reporting of the day power and the day power is realized simultaneously through the energy storage power correction. It should be noted that the present invention only concerns the reporting of photovoltaic power within a day, and therefore the reported curve is a known quantity in the present invention. The objective function of the light-storage power reporting model in the day is as follows:
Figure BDA0003761280160000072
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure BDA0003761280160000073
punishment is carried out on total check electric quantity in the day;
Figure BDA0003761280160000074
and
Figure BDA0003761280160000075
the electric quantity of the assessment in the day and before the day under the ith scene is obtained; c. C 1 And c 2 The penalty coefficient is used for checking the electric quantity in days and in the days. The energy storage constraints are shown in equations (12) - (16):
Figure BDA0003761280160000076
Figure BDA0003761280160000077
Figure BDA0003761280160000078
Figure BDA0003761280160000079
Figure BDA00037612801600000710
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA00037612801600000711
and
Figure BDA00037612801600000712
respectively storing energy, discharging and charging state binary variables at the moment of t + 1;
Figure BDA00037612801600000713
and
Figure BDA00037612801600000714
storing energy, discharging and charging power at the time of t + 1;
Figure BDA00037612801600000715
for the energy to be stored at the moment t,
Figure BDA00037612801600000716
the total energy stored is the total energy; eta c 、η d For charging and discharging efficiency, mu up 、μ down The upper and lower limit coefficients of the energy storage energy are obtained; mu.s deep Is the depth of discharge coefficient. The evaluation electric quantity and the reporting accuracy under each scene are calculated as shown in formulas (17) to (21):
Figure BDA0003761280160000081
Figure BDA0003761280160000082
Figure BDA0003761280160000083
Figure BDA0003761280160000084
Figure BDA0003761280160000085
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure BDA0003761280160000086
the photovoltaic power scene value after energy storage correction in the ith scene at the moment t is obtained;
Figure BDA0003761280160000087
Figure BDA0003761280160000088
reporting the accuracy rate for the ith scene in the day and day ahead;
Figure BDA0003761280160000089
reporting power value at the moment of t +1 in the day;
Figure BDA00037612801600000810
the actual photovoltaic grid-connected power value at the jth moment is obtained;
Figure BDA00037612801600000811
reporting power for the 16 th point at the moment of t +1 in the day; and the Cap is the installed capacity of the photovoltaic power station. Because the method is rolling scheduling in the day, only energy storage correction arrangement of a single time section needs to be considered, and the equation (17) only needs to add the energy storage charge-discharge power and the scene power predicted at the 1 st step at the moment t. In the formula (18), the calculation of the accuracy rate in the day includes three parts in consideration of the two current detailed rules, namely the absolute value error assessment reporting accuracy rate and the requirement of reporting power at different times in the day. Firstly, the accuracy rate from the reporting initial time to the t time (current time) is calculated, and the difference between the actual value after energy storage correction and the daily reported value is calculated; secondly, calculating the difference between each correction scene and the reported value, namely the accuracy of the t +1 moment (the time of correcting the energy to be stored); thirdly, the difference between the photovoltaic prediction scene value and the reported value in the future 15 steps is defined, and the reported power in the 16 th step in the day is examined by two rules, so that the method is shown in the formula
Figure BDA00037612801600000812
The rest reported values are constants for the decision variables. The calculation of the day-ahead accuracy of equation (19) is also divided into two parts, one of which is t +1The difference between the corrected scene value at the moment (time to be corrected) and the reported value in the day ahead; the second is the difference between the actual value after the correction from the reporting start time to the time and the reported value before the day. The formulas (20) - (21) are the assessment electric quantity calculation methods formulated in the two detailed rules, namely, the assessment electric quantity is calculated when the accuracy rates before and in the day are respectively lower than 85% and 90%, otherwise, the photovoltaic power station is not assessed. The variable set of the light-storage reporting rolling optimization model in the day is shown as (22), and the variable set comprises the reported power value in the step 16, the accuracy of each scene, the assessment electric quantity and the energy storage related variables.
Figure BDA0003761280160000091
And S108, solving the daily light-storage power reporting model to obtain a daily power reporting result. And obtaining an intra-day rolling optimization reporting strategy and an energy storage charging and discharging strategy. First, as shown in fig. 2, the rolling optimization is started gradually forward by setting t +16 to be 8:00, and the reporting power, the energy storage charging and discharging power, and the like corresponding to the times other than the reporting time (8 to 20) are all corrected to 0 in the process of the rolling optimization. Secondly, in each optimization process, a light-power storage station power reporting model shown in formulas (11) to (22) is constructed based on a scene set of the formula (10), a CPLEX solver is used for solving, and logical and absolute value constraints contained in the formulas (17) to (21) can be relaxed by using 'imprpies' statements in Yalmip, so that the model is converted into a mixed integer linear model. After each round of model solution is finished, recording the optimized reporting power of the 16 th point
Figure BDA0003761280160000092
And storing the values of the charging and discharging power and the energy so as to solve the model at the next moment in a rolling manner. The overall flow is shown in fig. 3, and includes:
obtaining a photovoltaic power scene in the starting day at the moment t, wherein t is N Tdown -15；
Solving the model;
updating and recording the reported power of t +16 and the charge-discharge power stored at the moment of t + 1;
let t be t + 1;
judging whether t +1 is equal to N Tup If yes, obtaining a daily power reporting result; if not, let t be t +1, and start the building, model building and solving of the intra-day photovoltaic power scene set at the next time, that is, return to steps S104 and S106 to start the building, model building and solving of the intra-day photovoltaic power scene set at the next time. In an embodiment of the present invention, there is further provided an uncertainty-related light-storage station intra-day power reporting apparatus, including:
the error calculation module is used for calculating the error between the photovoltaic power predicted value in the day and the historical power predicted value;
the intra-day photovoltaic power scene set building module is used for building an intra-day photovoltaic power scene set based on errors;
the power reporting model construction module is used for constructing a light-storage power reporting model in the day, which takes the energy storage correction into account;
and the daily power reporting result calculating module is used for solving the daily light-storage power reporting model to obtain a daily power reporting result.
The specific implementation process of the functions of the modules in the device according to this embodiment of the present invention is the same as the steps of the method according to the foregoing embodiment of the present invention, and therefore, the repeated description thereof will be omitted here.
A specific example will be described below.
Taking actual data of a certain photovoltaic power station in the central China in 2019, 11 months and 6 days as an example, simulation analysis and verification are carried out, and the data related to the photovoltaic power station and the energy storage are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 light-to-electricity-storage station-related data
Figure BDA0003761280160000101
The actual value of the solar photovoltaic power, the forecast value before the day and the predicted value of the 16 th step of the ultra-short term in the day are shown in FIG. 4. Firstly, the 16-step prediction error data of the ultra-short term in the historical days are counted according to the steps 1 and 2, and a 16-step prediction error scene set of the ultra-short term in the days is obtained by utilizing the Cornish-Fisher series and the Latin hypercube sampling and is shown in figure 5. Secondly, a daily optical-storage power optimization reporting model is established by using the step 3, and the solution is performed according to the step 4 and the flow of fig. 3, so that the daily optimization reporting result is obtained as shown in fig. 6. Comparing fig. 4 and fig. 6, it can be known that the reporting accuracy can be significantly improved by configuring the energy storage, reasonably optimizing the reported value of the photovoltaic power and correcting the actual grid-connected power of the optical-storage power station.
In summary, the embodiments of the present invention relate to a method and an apparatus for reporting an intra-day power of an optical-storage site, which take uncertainty into account, where the method includes: calculating the error between the photovoltaic power predicted value in the day and the historical power predicted value; constructing a day-to-day photovoltaic power scene set based on the errors; constructing a day light-storage power reporting model for calculating and correcting energy storage; and solving the daily light-storage power reporting model to obtain a daily power reporting result. According to the technical scheme of the embodiment of the invention, a daily photovoltaic power scene is constructed by utilizing the Cornish-Fisher series, so that a power optimization reporting model of the light-storage station is established, a reporting strategy is formulated, a solving scheme is given, and support is provided for the operation efficiency and robustness of the light-storage station.
It is to be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely illustrative of or explaining the principles of the invention and are not to be construed as limiting the invention. Therefore, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and the like made without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention. Further, it is intended that the appended claims cover all such variations and modifications as fall within the scope and boundaries of the appended claims or the equivalents of such scope and boundaries.

Claims (9)

1. An uncertainty-based method for reporting power of an optical-storage station in a day is provided, the method comprising:
calculating the error between the photovoltaic power predicted value in the day and the historical power predicted value;
constructing a day-to-day photovoltaic power scene set based on the errors;
constructing a daily light-storage power reporting model for taking account of energy storage correction by utilizing a daily photovoltaic power scene set;
and solving the daily light-storage power reporting model to obtain a daily power reporting result.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the intra-day photovoltaic power prediction value is obtained according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003761280150000011
wherein N is s Predicting the step number; n is a radical of hydrogen Tdown And N Tup For predicting or reporting the starting and ending moments, H (.) represents a prediction model, the prediction model is a preset known quantity, and beta is a trained prediction model parameter; z t For the input vector for the prediction at time t of day,
Figure FDA0003761280150000012
and (5) the photovoltaic power predicted value of the step s at the moment t.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the error is derived according to the following equation:
e d，t，s ＝p d，t，s -H(Z d，t ，β)，d＝1，2，...，N d
wherein N is d Total days for training; z d，t An input vector at the tth moment of the historical day d; p is a radical of d，t，s 、e d，t，s And respectively representing the actual photovoltaic power and the prediction error corresponding to the prediction time of the step s at the tth time of the historical day d.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the intra-day set of photovoltaic power scenarios is constructed according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003761280150000013
wherein, P t，s，i Is the photovoltaic power, Δ p, of the ith scene at time t, step s s，i The photovoltaic power of the ith scene at the step s at the moment t.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the intraday light-stored power reporting model is:
Figure FDA0003761280150000021
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003761280150000022
punishment is carried out on total check electric quantity in the day;
Figure FDA0003761280150000023
and
Figure FDA0003761280150000024
the electric quantity of the assessment in the day and before the day under the ith scene is obtained; c. C 1 And c 2 And (4) the penalty coefficient of the electric quantity assessed in days and before days, and NI represents the total scene number.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the solving comprises:
solving the model with x as variable based on constraint condition,
Figure FDA0003761280150000025
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003761280150000026
is a decision variable and represents the reported power at the 16 th point at the t +16 moment in the day,
Figure FDA0003761280150000027
the in-day reporting accuracy of the ith scene in the day,
Figure FDA0003761280150000028
for the examination electric quantity in the ith scene in the day,
Figure FDA0003761280150000029
for the current electric quantity of the examination in the ith scene,
Figure FDA00037612801500000210
the energy storage discharge power and the discharge state variable at the moment t +1,
Figure FDA00037612801500000211
the energy storage charging power and the charging state variable are stored at the moment t +1,
Figure FDA00037612801500000212
and storing the residual energy for the t + l moment.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein the constraints comprise:
Figure FDA00037612801500000213
Figure FDA00037612801500000214
Figure FDA00037612801500000215
Figure FDA00037612801500000216
Figure FDA00037612801500000217
wherein, P d，max And P c，max Respectively the maximum charging power and the maximum discharging power,
Figure FDA00037612801500000218
the remaining energy is stored for the time t +1,
Figure FDA00037612801500000219
and
Figure FDA00037612801500000220
respectively storing energy, discharging and charging state binary variables at the moment of t + 1;
Figure FDA00037612801500000221
and
Figure FDA00037612801500000222
storing energy, discharging and charging power at the time of t + 1;
Figure FDA00037612801500000223
for the energy to be stored at the moment t,
Figure FDA00037612801500000224
the total energy stored is the total energy; eta c 、η d For charging and discharging efficiency, mu up 、μ down The upper and lower limit coefficients of the energy storage energy are obtained; mu.s deep Is the depth of discharge coefficient.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the intra-day power reporting result is obtained according to the following steps:
obtaining a photovoltaic power scene in the starting day at the moment t, wherein t is N Tdown -15；
Solving the model;
updating and recording the reported power of t +16 and the charge-discharge power stored at the moment of t + 1;
let t be t + 1;
judging whether t +1 is equal to N Tup If yes, obtaining a daily power reporting result; and if not, making t equal to t +1, and starting the construction, model construction and solving of the intra-day photovoltaic power scene set at the next moment.
9. An optical-storage station intra-day power reporting device for accounting for uncertainty, comprising:
the error calculation module is used for calculating the error between the photovoltaic power predicted value in the day and the historical power predicted value;
the intra-day photovoltaic power scene set building module is used for building an intra-day photovoltaic power scene set based on errors;
the power reporting model constructing module is used for constructing a day light-storage power reporting model considering energy storage correction;
and the daily power reporting result calculating module is used for solving the daily light-storage power reporting model to obtain a daily power reporting result.
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