CN115049313B - Method for converting historical agriculture drought disaster caused under condition of missing historical data in wet area - Google Patents
Method for converting historical agriculture drought disaster caused under condition of missing historical data in wet area Download PDFInfo
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- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 17
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims abstract description 125
- 238000009331 sowing Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 10
- 238000011084 recovery Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 9
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 239000002352 surface water Substances 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 abstract description 3
- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 description 3
- 210000001015 abdomen Anatomy 0.000 description 1
- 230000006978 adaptation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012271 agricultural production Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000009826 distribution Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000003306 harvesting Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000001556 precipitation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000002265 prevention Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004445 quantitative analysis Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000630 rising effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000007619 statistical method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000004659 sterilization and disinfection Methods 0.000 description 1
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G06F17/00—Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
- G06F17/10—Complex mathematical operations
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for converting historical agriculture due to drought disaster under the condition of lack of historical data in a humid area, which comprises the steps of obtaining the water resource quantity of a research area for years and the sowing area of crops, and determining model years under different drought frequencies according to the water resource quantity of different drought frequencies in the research area; acquiring the current agricultural water demand and water supply of classical years under different drought frequencies, and utilizing the ratio of the water supply and the water demand to represent the ratio of the actual unit yield and the theoretical unit yield of crops as a judging factor for evaluating the drought disaster condition of the agriculture; and calculating judgment factors of model years under different drought frequencies, and calculating the disaster recovery rate when the numerical value of the judgment factors falls into the disaster recovery range of drought. The method can quantitatively reflect the possible agricultural loss of the historical drought under the current condition under the conditions of lack of the water supply data of the historical arid years and the historical drought disaster area, thereby guiding the construction of the water conservancy and the allocation of regional water resources, and having stronger practicability and wide applicability.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of drought control, in particular to a method for converting historical agriculture from drought disaster in the case of lack of historical data in a humid region.
Background
Drought is a natural disaster frequently encountered in agricultural production, and the disaster grade is judged directly and definitely according to the yield reduction degree of crops. Considering that the water supply capacity of each place is greatly improved along with the construction of the hydraulic engineering, the influence of the same drought frequency is lightened along with the water supply capacity, and the current drought resistance planning cannot be directly guided by the loss of the historical drought records. Therefore, the relationship between the current year drought influence and the historical model year drought influence under different drought frequencies is established by analyzing the difference of current year water supply capacity and historical model year water supply capacity under different drought frequencies, and the drought influence under different current years is calculated. Part of historical data is difficult to obtain due to the problems of short statistical period, inconsistent statistical methods and the like, and a method capable of quantitatively calculating historical drought influence by using as little data as possible is needed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for converting historical agriculture drought disaster caused under the condition of missing historical data in a humid region.
In order to achieve the technical purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a method for converting historical agriculture due to drought into disaster under the condition of missing historical data in a humid region comprises the following steps:
acquiring the water resource quantity of a research area for years and the sowing area of crops, and determining model years under different drought frequencies according to the water resource quantity of different drought frequencies in the research area;
acquiring the current agricultural water demand and water supply of classical years under different drought frequencies, and utilizing the ratio of the water supply and the water demand to represent the ratio of the actual unit yield and the theoretical unit yield of crops as a judging factor for evaluating the drought disaster condition of the agriculture; calculating judgment factors of model years under different drought frequencies, and calculating the disaster recovery rate based on the following formula when the numerical values of the judgment factors fall into the disaster recovery range of drought:
a×(1-β)+b×β＝α
wherein a and b are respectively the upper and lower limit values of the disaster-affected range; beta is disaster recovery rate, namely the proportion of disaster recovery area to total sowing area, and alpha is judgment factor, namely the ratio of water supply amount to water demand.
As a preferred embodiment, the design annual water resource amount under different drought frequencies is determined by frequency analysis of the acquired annual water resource amount of the research area, and the model year is determined according to the design annual water resource amount.
In a preferred embodiment, according to the calculated annual water resource amount designed for different drought frequencies in the research area, years with annual water resource amount similar to the annual water resource amount designed for different drought frequencies are selected from the surface water resource amount data of the long sequence of the research area as model years, preferably, if the selected annual water resource amount sequence length is N years, the designed annual water resource amount with the drought frequency of X is selected as model years, and the alternative years of the model years are years with the water resource amount frequency of X+/-N/100, and the years closest to the designed annual water resource amount are selected from the model years as model years. The application defines the scope of model year selection, so that the whole scheme is more operable.
As a preferred embodiment, the current agricultural water demand and water supply under different drought frequencies are obtained according to the water resource system plan of the research area.
As a preferred embodiment, according to the obtained water demand and water supply, calculation formulas of theoretical unit yield and actual unit yield of crops are respectively established by combining the water demand, and are as follows:
wherein Y is the theoretical unit yield of crops calculated according to the water demand, D is the water demand of crops, Y' is the actual unit yield of crops calculated according to the water supply, S is the water supply, and K is the water demand;
and assuming that the water demand is the same as the water demand corresponding to the water supply under the same drought frequency, at the moment, the ratio of the water supply to the water demand is used for representing the ratio of the actual unit yield and the theoretical unit yield of crops.
The two formulas are directed to the same year (classical year at the same drought frequency), y=d/K calculates the yield in the case where the water demand of the crop in the year can be fully satisfied, while Y' =s/K is used to characterize the yield in the amount of water actually available in the year (the water demand may not be fully satisfied). The water supply can meet the water demand as much as possible for the wet area, and the difference of the water demand coefficients in the two formulas in the same year is not large, so that the water demand coefficient corresponding to the water supply quantity is assumed to be the same under the same drought frequency, and the ratio of the water supply quantity to the water demand is used for representing the ratio of the actual unit yield and the theoretical unit yield of crops, so that the calculation can be simplified.
As a preferred embodiment, the upper and lower limit values of the disaster-stricken area are set according to the definition of the disaster-stricken area in the drought disaster grade standard.
As a preferred embodiment, when the judgment factor value is within the range of (0.7,0.9), the method is characterized in that the drought disaster is caused, and the proportion of the disaster area to the total sowing area is calculated, namely the disaster rate.
The method can quantitatively reflect the possible agricultural loss of the historical drought under the current condition under the conditions of lack of the water supply amount of the historical drought and the drought disaster data, thereby guiding the construction of water conservancy and the allocation of regional water resources, and having stronger practicability and wide applicability.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further illustrated with reference to specific examples.
The technique is applied to drought risk assessment of the emerging market in Taizhou of Jiangsu province, the emerging market is positioned in the middle of Jiangsu province and in the abdomen of the river, and belongs to the jurisdiction of Jiangsu Taizhou. The rising is located in the northern subtropical humid monsoon climate area, the annual change of precipitation is larger and the annual distribution is uneven, 15 times of drought is generated since the country is built.
The quantitative analysis method provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
(1) The water resource quantity, the water supply quantity and the crop sowing area of a research area are acquired by collecting data, model years under different drought frequencies are determined according to the water resource quantity of different drought frequencies of the research area, and the model years under different drought frequencies are as follows:
the data of water resource quantity, water supply quantity, crop sowing area and drought disaster area in 1956-2016 of Xinghua city are obtained through data, and the data in 2019 are added into the sequence because full-provincial drought occurs in Jiangsu in 2019.
Calculating water resource frequency by using annual water resource amount as index, performing line adaptation analysis by adopting P-III curve method, and performing frequency analysis calculation on annual water resource amount in Xinghua city to obtain water resource amounts of 30130 ten thousand m under different drought frequencies of 5 years first encounter (75% water supply frequency), 10 years first encounter (90% water supply frequency), 20 years first encounter (95% water supply frequency), 50 years first encounter (97% water supply frequency) and 100 years first encounter (99% water supply frequency) respectively 3 6093 ten thousand m 3 -6713 km 3 14424 km 3 27736 km 3 。
According to the calculated annual water resource quantity of different drought frequencies of the research area, years with the annual water resource quantity similar to the annual water resource quantity of different drought frequencies are selected from the surface water resource quantity data of the long-sequence of the research area as model years. If the selected water resource amount sequence length is N years, for the designed year water resource amount with the drought frequency of X, the alternative years of the model year are years with the water resource amount frequency of X+/-N/100, and the year closest to the designed year water resource amount is selected as the model year. Drought risk assessment recommendations for the emerging market are shown in Table 1 for classical years.
TABLE 1 drought risk assessment recommendation model year statistics for emerging markets
(2) Calculating the current situation water demand and water supply of different drought frequency model years;
the current agricultural water demand and water supply of the research area under each drought frequency are obtained according to the research area water resource system plan, as shown in table 2.
Table 2 current agriculture supply and water demand units at different drought frequencies in emerging markets: ten thousand meters 3
| Drought frequency | 75％ | 90％ | 95％ | 97％ | 99％ |
| Agricultural water demand | 10000 | 88000 | 77000 | 75000 | 73000 |
| Agricultural water supply | 10000 | 88000 | 77000 | 68000 | 65000 |
(3) And calculating the drought disaster condition of agriculture according to the water supply and demand.
The ratio alpha of the actual unit yield and the theoretical unit yield of crops is represented by the ratio of the water supply quantity and the water demand quantity, and is used for representing the yield reduction. The definition setting alpha of disaster-stricken, disaster-stricken and harvest-out areas is as follows by referring to SL663-2014 drought disaster grade standard:
TABLE 3 alpha value Range for different drought disaster class criteria
| α＝1 | 1＞α>0.9 | 0.9≥α>0.7 | 0.7≥α>0.2 | α≤0.2 |
| Not affected by drought | Drought and disaster prevention | Disaster-stricken | Disaster recovery | Disinfection and harvest |
0.9×(1-β)+0.7×β＝α
Then when α >0.9, there is no disaster area; when alpha is less than 0.9, the drought is assumed to occur in part of the area, the disaster is caused in part of the area, and the proportion of the disaster area to the total sowing area is beta.
When p=75%, α=10000/10000=1 >0.9, and no drought is caused
When p=90%, α=88000/88000=1 >0.9, no drought
When p=95%, α=77000/77000=1 >0.9, and is not affected by drought
When p=97%, α=68000/77000=0.91 >0.9, and the drought is not affected by the disaster
When p=99%, α=65000/73000=0.89 <0.9, and the disaster damage rate β is calculated according to the following formula.
0.9×(1-β)+0.7×β＝65000/73000
β＝4.79％。
Claims (4)
1. A method for converting historical agriculture due to drought into disaster in the case of missing historical data in a humid area is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring annual water resource quantity and crop sowing area of a research area, designing annual water resource quantity according to different drought frequencies of the research area, and respectively selecting years with the annual water resource quantity similar to the annual water resource quantity designed by different drought frequencies in the research area from the surface water resource quantity data of a long sequence of the research area as model years; when model years under different drought frequencies are determined, if the sequence length of the selected water resource amount is N years, for the designed year water resource amount with the drought frequency of X, the alternative years of the model years are years with the water resource amount frequency of X+/-N/100, and the years closest to the designed year water resource amount are selected as model years;
acquiring the current agricultural water demand and water supply of classical years under different drought frequencies, and utilizing the ratio of the water supply and the water demand to represent the ratio of the actual unit yield and the theoretical unit yield of crops as a judging factor for evaluating the drought disaster condition of the agriculture; calculating judgment factors of model years under different drought frequencies, and calculating the proportion of disaster-stricken area to total sowing area based on the following formula when the numerical value of the judgment factors is within the range of (0.7,0.9), wherein the disaster-stricken area is in disaster-stricken due to drought:
0.9×(1-β)+0.7×β＝α
wherein, beta is the disaster recovery rate, namely the proportion of the disaster recovery area to the total sowing area, and alpha is the judgment factor, namely the ratio of the water supply amount to the water demand amount.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the designed annual water resource amount at different drought frequencies is determined by frequency analysis of the acquired annual water resource amount of the research area, and wherein the model year is determined based on the designed annual water resource amount.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the model year current agricultural water demand and water supply at different drought frequencies are obtained according to a research area water resource system plan.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the calculation formulas of the theoretical unit yield and the actual unit yield of the crop are respectively established according to the obtained water demand and the water supply and by combining the water demand, as follows:
wherein Y is the theoretical unit yield of crops calculated according to the water demand, D is the water demand of crops, Y' is the actual unit yield of crops calculated according to the water supply, S is the water supply, and K is the water demand;
and assuming that the water demand is the same as the water demand corresponding to the water supply under the same drought frequency, at the moment, the ratio of the water supply to the water demand is used for representing the ratio of the actual unit yield and the theoretical unit yield of crops.
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103577720A (en) * | 2013-11-29 | 2014-02-12 | 民政部国家减灾中心 | Method for estimating regional drought risk |
| CN104881727A (en) * | 2015-01-13 | 2015-09-02 | 北京师范大学 | Crop disaster situation loss assessment method based on remote-sensing sampling |
| CN105761155A (en) * | 2015-08-26 | 2016-07-13 | 北京师范大学 | Agricultural drought rapid evaluation method based on historical cases |
| CN113793228A (en) * | 2021-08-24 | 2021-12-14 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Method for determining yield reduction rate of agriculture due to drought with different drought frequencies under current defense conditions |
| CN114723293A (en) * | 2022-04-11 | 2022-07-08 | 湖南省水利水电科学研究院 | Drought risk assessment method based on historical typical drought influence indexes of drought in arid years |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103577720A (en) * | 2013-11-29 | 2014-02-12 | 民政部国家减灾中心 | Method for estimating regional drought risk |
| CN104881727A (en) * | 2015-01-13 | 2015-09-02 | 北京师范大学 | Crop disaster situation loss assessment method based on remote-sensing sampling |
| CN105761155A (en) * | 2015-08-26 | 2016-07-13 | 北京师范大学 | Agricultural drought rapid evaluation method based on historical cases |
| CN113793228A (en) * | 2021-08-24 | 2021-12-14 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Method for determining yield reduction rate of agriculture due to drought with different drought frequencies under current defense conditions |
| CN114723293A (en) * | 2022-04-11 | 2022-07-08 | 湖南省水利水电科学研究院 | Drought risk assessment method based on historical typical drought influence indexes of drought in arid years |
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