CN115018100A - Decision-making method for operation and maintenance based on the health status of substation equipment - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a decision-making method for operation, maintenance and maintenance based on the health state of substation equipment, comprising the following steps: acquiring real-time operation state data of substation equipment; calculating the health degree of substation equipment according to the real-time operation state data; The failure rate of substation equipment calculates the predicted failure rate of substation equipment; calculates the importance of substation equipment; calculates the risk cost based on the health, predicted failure rate and importance of substation equipment; Repair method. Comprehensively consider the health, importance, and failure rate of substation equipment, calculate the risk cost, make maintenance decisions through the risk cost of substation equipment, fully consider the risk cost of power grid operation, and make great contributions to the decision-making of substation equipment operation and maintenance; The calculation and calculation of the normal failure rate of power distribution equipment can carry out the normal risk analysis of the equipment, and calculate the predicted failure rate and predict the sudden risk through the increment of the accidental failure rate in the existing statistical period.

Description

Decision-making method for operation and maintenance based on the health status of substation equipment

technical field

The invention belongs to the technical field of substation equipment maintenance, and in particular relates to an operation and maintenance maintenance decision method based on the health state of substation equipment.

Background technique

With the increase of running time, the power distribution equipment may have some parts damaged or even the whole equipment deteriorated to different degrees during the working process.

The existing technology can only detect according to the monitored equipment health or failure rate, ignore the impact of equipment overhaul, minor repair or replacement on the overall power grid operation risk cost, and cannot predict and analyze power distribution equipment failures.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

The purpose of the present invention is to provide a decision-making method for operation, maintenance and repair based on the health status of substation equipment, so as to solve the problems raised in the above background technology.

In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: a decision-making method for operation, maintenance and repair based on the health state of substation equipment, comprising the following steps:

1) Obtain real-time operating status data of substation equipment;

2) Calculate the health of the substation equipment according to the real-time operating status data;

3) Calculate the predicted failure rate of substation equipment based on the failure rate of substation equipment in the statistical period;

4) Calculate the importance of substation equipment;

5) Calculate the risk cost based on the health, predicted failure rate and importance of the substation equipment;

6) Determine the maintenance method of the substation equipment according to the result of the risk cost.

Preferably, in the step 2), the specific steps of calculating the real-time health degree of the substation equipment according to the real-time operating state data are:

The parameter correlation model of the substation equipment is established, and the model is as follows:

与

分别表示监测数据的上下限，f为监测数据之间的相关性函数；Y为约束函数；X为监测数据；Ω为监测数据集，且多个参数之间相互独立；S_i为参数约束的允许区间，S_i ^min和S_i ^max分别表示允许区间的上下界；in,

and

respectively represent the upper and lower limits of monitoring data, f is the correlation function between monitoring data; Y is the constraint function; X is the monitoring data; Ω is the monitoring data set, and multiple parameters are independent of each other; S _i is the parameter constrained Allowable interval, S _i ^min and S _i ^max represent the upper and lower bounds of the allowable interval, respectively;

Then the correlation model of multiple monitoring data is:

Wherein, X _n ∈ X, n=1, 2, ...;

和超出警报限值的值

Calculate normalized values based on fault limits and alarm limits of substation equipment

and values outside the alarm limits

即为故障限值和警报限值之间的差值；Among them, An ^{max and An min are the upper and lower alarm limits of the monitoring data of the substation equipment, F n max and F n min} _are ^the _upper ^and lower fault limits _{of the monitoring data of the substation equipment, and V n d} ^is _the equipment The expected value of the required monitoring parameters,

is the difference between the fault limit and the alarm limit;

Calculate the real-time health degree of monitoring data of substation equipment, the formula is as follows:

和

为

的上、下限，

和

为

的上、下限。where m is the number of device operations,

and

for

the upper and lower limits of ,

and

for

upper and lower limits.

Preferably, when H _n =1, the device is healthy and H _n >2, when the device is faulty, and when H _n is between the 1 and 2 limit values, it is in an alarm state.

Preferably, the failure rate in the step 3) includes the normal failure rate and the increment of the incidental failure rate, and the calculation formula of the normal failure rate is:

Among them, i=1～m, m is the classification number of substation equipment, N is the total number of substation equipment, and N _i is the number of substation equipment faults in a certain category;

Incidental failure rate increment calculation formula is:

Among them, F _S is the ratio of the number of faulty equipment to the total number of failures under severe weather conditions in the statistical period, and W _S is the ratio of the duration of severe weather to the statistical time in the statistical period;

Calculate the predicted failure rate according to the incremental incident failure rate statistics, then the predicted failure rate is:

Among them, We is the duration of severe weather in the forecast statistical period, and _WT is the statistical time _.

Preferably, in the step 4), the calculation formula of the importance of the substation equipment is:

Among them, M _z (E) is the level of the z-th impact factor, E is the impact factor, ω _z (E) is the weight corresponding to the z-th impact factor, and y is the total number of important factors.

Preferably, the calculation formula of the risk cost in the step 5) is as follows:

R=K·I·P·H _n

Among them, K is the proportional coefficient.

Preferably, the maintenance methods include minor repairs, major repairs, and replacement, where minor repairs are localized repairs, and major repairs are global routine inspections, and replacement is to replace equipment.

The technical effects and advantages of the present invention: the operation, maintenance and repair decision-making method based on the health state of the substation equipment comprehensively considers the health degree, importance, and failure rate of the substation equipment, calculates the risk cost, and the maintenance staff conducts the risk cost of the substation equipment through the risk cost of the substation equipment. Maintenance decision-making, fully consider the risk cost of power grid operation, and make a great contribution to the decision-making of substation equipment operation and maintenance;

The normal failure rate of power distribution equipment can be calculated, and the normal risk analysis of the equipment can be carried out. Through the increment of the accidental failure rate in the existing statistical period, the predicted failure rate can be calculated and the sudden risk can be predicted.

Description of drawings

FIG. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of the present invention.

Detailed ways

The specific embodiments of the present invention will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be noted here that the description of these embodiments is used to help the understanding of the present invention, but does not constitute a limitation of the present invention. In addition, the technical features involved in the various embodiments of the present invention described below can be combined with each other as long as they do not conflict with each other.

The present invention provides a decision-making method for operation and maintenance based on the health state of substation equipment as shown in FIG. 1, including the following steps:

Step 1: Obtain real-time operating status data of substation equipment;

Step 2: Calculate the health of the substation equipment according to the real-time operating status data;

The specific steps are:

The parameter correlation model of the substation equipment is established, and the model is as follows:

与

分别表示监测数据的上下限，f为监测数据之间的相关性函数；Y为约束函数；X为监测数据；Ω为监测数据集，且多个参数之间相互独立；S_i为参数约束的允许区间，S_i ^min和S_i ^max分别表示允许区间的上下界；in,

and

respectively represent the upper and lower limits of monitoring data, f is the correlation function between monitoring data; Y is the constraint function; X is the monitoring data; Ω is the monitoring data set, and multiple parameters are independent of each other; S _i is the parameter constrained Allowable interval, S _i ^min and S _i ^max represent the upper and lower bounds of the allowable interval, respectively;

Then the correlation model of multiple monitoring data is:

Among them, X _n represents any monitoring data, X _n ∈ X, n=1, 2, ...;

和超出警报限值的值

Calculate normalized values based on fault limits and alarm limits of substation equipment

and values outside the alarm limits

即为故障限值和警报限值之间的差值；Among them, An ^{max and An min are the upper and lower alarm limits of the monitoring data of the substation equipment, F n max and F n min} _are ^the _upper ^and lower fault limits _{of the monitoring data of the substation equipment, and V n d} ^is _the equipment The expected value of the required monitoring parameters,

is the difference between the fault limit and the alarm limit;

Calculate the real-time health degree of monitoring data of substation equipment, the formula is as follows:

和

为

的上、下限，

和

为

的上、下限；where m is the number of device operations,

and

for

the upper and lower limits of ,

and

for

The upper and lower limits of ;

The device is healthy when _Hn =1 and _Hn >2, the device is faulty, and is in an alarm state when _Hn is between the 1 and 2 limit values.

Step 3: Calculate the predicted failure rate of the substation equipment in combination with the substation equipment failure rate in the statistical period;

The failure rate includes the normal failure rate and the increment of the incidental failure rate. The calculation formula of the normal failure rate is:

Among them, i=1～m, m is the classification number of substation equipment, N is the total number of substation equipment, and N _i is the number of substation equipment faults in a certain category;

Incidental failure rate increment calculation formula is:

Among them, F _S is the ratio of the number of faulty equipment to the total number of failures under severe weather conditions in the statistical period, and W _S is the ratio of the duration of severe weather to the statistical time in the statistical period;

Calculate the predicted failure rate according to the incremental incident failure rate statistics, then the predicted failure rate is:

Among them, We is the duration of severe weather in the forecast statistical period, and _WT is the statistical time _.

Step 4: Calculate the importance of substation equipment;

The formula for calculating importance is:

Among them, M _z (E) is the level of the z-th influencing factor, E is the fault event, ω _z (E) is the weight corresponding to the z-th influencing factor, and y is the total number of important influencing factors;

The influencing factors include load quantity factor, load level factor, social influence factor and equipment factor.

Step 5: Calculate the risk cost based on the health, predicted failure rate and importance of the substation equipment;

Calculated as follows:

R=K·I·P·H _n

Among them, K is the proportional coefficient.

Step 6: Determine the maintenance method of the substation equipment according to the result of the risk cost. According to the risk cost, the contribution of different power distribution equipment to the risk can be visually determined. When making maintenance decisions, the priority level of equipment maintenance can be determined according to the risk cost; maintenance The methods include minor repairs, major repairs, and replacements. Minor repairs are local inspections, and major repairs are global daily inspections. Replacement means replacing equipment.

In view of the development of power equipment operation and maintenance, this decision-making method for operation and maintenance based on the health status of substation equipment is proposed. By comprehensively considering the operating status of the equipment, the nature of the equipment itself, and the predicted failure rate, the health status of the substation equipment can be fully evaluated to realize the operation and maintenance decision of the substation equipment.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present invention. Embodiments are subject to variations, modifications, substitutions and variations.

Claims (7)

1. a decision-making method for operation and maintenance based on the state of health of substation equipment, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps: 1) Obtain real-time operating status data of substation equipment; 2) Calculate the health of the substation equipment according to the real-time operating status data; 3) Calculate the predicted failure rate of substation equipment based on the failure rate of substation equipment in the statistical period; 4) Calculate the importance of substation equipment; 5) Calculate the risk cost based on the health, predicted failure rate and importance of the substation equipment; 6) Determine the maintenance method of the substation equipment according to the result of the risk cost. 2. a kind of operation and maintenance overhaul decision-making method based on the state of health of substation equipment according to claim 1, is characterized in that: the concrete step of calculating the real-time health degree of substation equipment according to real-time operation state data in described step 2) for: The parameter correlation model of the substation equipment is established, and the model is as follows:

in,

and

respectively represent the upper and lower limits of monitoring data, f is the correlation function between monitoring data; Y is the constraint function; X is the monitoring data; Ω is the monitoring data set, and multiple parameters are independent of each other; S _i is the parameter constrained Allowable interval, S _i ^min and S _i ^max represent the upper and lower bounds of the allowable interval, respectively; Then the correlation model of multiple monitoring data is:

Among them, X _n represents any monitoring data, X _n ∈ X, n=1, 2, ...; Calculate normalized values based on fault limits and alarm limits of substation equipment

and values outside the alarm limits

Among them, An ^{max and An min are the upper and lower alarm limits of the monitoring data of the substation equipment, F n max and F n min} _are ^the _upper ^and lower fault limits _{of the monitoring data of the substation equipment, and V n d} ^is _the equipment The expected value of the required monitoring parameters,

is the difference between the fault limit and the alarm limit; Calculate the real-time health degree of monitoring data of substation equipment, the formula is as follows:

where m is the number of device operations,

and

for

the upper and lower limits of ,

and

for

upper and lower limits. 3 . The operation and maintenance overhaul decision method based on the health state of substation equipment according to claim 2 , wherein: when H _n = 1, the equipment is healthy and H _n > 2, when the equipment fails, when H n = 1 A value of _n between the limits of 1 and 2 is in an alarm state. 4. a kind of operation and maintenance overhaul decision-making method based on the state of health of substation equipment according to claim 1, is characterized in that: in described step 3), failure rate comprises normal failure rate and incidental failure rate increment, normal failure rate The calculation formula is:

Among them, i=1～m, m is the classification number of substation equipment, N is the total number of substation equipment, and N _i is the number of substation equipment faults in a certain category; Incidental failure rate increment calculation formula is:

Among them, F _S is the ratio of the number of faulty equipment to the total number of failures under severe weather conditions in the statistical period, and W _S is the ratio of the duration of severe weather to the statistical time in the statistical period; Calculate the predicted failure rate according to the incremental incident failure rate statistics, then the predicted failure rate is:

Among them, We is the duration of severe weather in the forecast statistical period, and _WT is the statistical time _. 5. A kind of operation, maintenance and repair decision-making method based on the health state of substation equipment according to claim 1, characterized in that: the calculation formula of the importance degree of substation equipment in the step 4) is:

Among them, M _z (E) is the level of the z-th impact factor, E is the impact factor, ω _z (E) is the weight corresponding to the z-th impact factor, and y is the total number of important factors. 6. a kind of decision-making method for operation and maintenance based on the state of health of substation equipment according to claim 1, is characterized in that: the calculation formula of risk cost in described step 5) is as follows: R=K·I·P·H _n Among them, K is the proportional coefficient. 7. The operation and maintenance overhaul decision method based on the health status of substation equipment according to claim 1, wherein the overhaul method comprises minor repairs, major repairs and replacement, where minor repairs are local overhauls, and major repairs are global routines Overhaul, replacement is to replace the equipment.

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