CN114999230B - Collision risk assessment method based on ship domain collision area - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for systematically estimating collision risks of two mobile water-surface vessels, which comprises the steps of selecting related variables affecting the dimensions of the vessel field, constructing an asymmetric polygonal vessel field through fuzzy rules, revising the vessel field according to international ocean convention, setting time weight, and carrying out time integration on the collision rate of the instantaneous vessel field to obtain the collision risk, wherein the collision risk can be regarded as a more direct measure of traffic risk. The invention can provide more direct and finer risk early warning for crews, and solves the problems that in the prior art, the rough risk is 1 and the risk is 0 when the binary judgment of the risk is carried out only by invasion or not in the field of ships. The invention carries out finer measurement on the collision risk, converts the risk degree into a specific numerical value between 0 and 1, can better remind the crewman to pay attention to the existing collision risk, and helps the crewman to make proper navigation risk avoidance decisions so as to protect life safety and property safety.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of water traffic safety, in particular to a collision risk assessment method for ships.
Background
Current offshore navigation relies primarily on manual judgment by crews on duty with the aid of seaborne gauges, radar, sonar, closed Circuit Television (CCTV) and/or infrared cameras. However, statistical studies have shown that 75% -96% of marine accidents are caused by human factors such as lack of experience and lack of situational awareness of crews. Although, the procedures of the maritime traffic regulations and collision avoidance are defined in the international maritime collision avoidance regulations, which are passed by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). However, these rules do not specify quantitative criteria for the procedure of detecting and assessing collision risk. Therefore, quantitative measurement of collision risk is of great importance for proper collision avoidance maneuver decision-making by crews, leading many scholars to study this aspect.
In the field of maritime management, various risk analysis methods based on a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) model have been proposed, which take into account vessel dynamics, human errors and statistical data of certain channels and/or busy channels (e.g. traffic flow conditions and sailing situations), or collision criteria obtained by taking into account traffic patterns, maneuver patterns and statistical analysis of specific waters. However, these methods are more developed based on land mode experience and are not very suitable for marine vessels with wider voyage freedom and greater voyage interactions.
In order to improve the offshore safety, many research methods for risk assessment of ship sailing collision have been proposed.
For example, a digital ship collision risk prediction method based on AIS and based on probability flow concepts, a collision risk assessment method based on collision avoidance difficulty and a collision detection algorithm, or an offshore traffic collision method based on artificial intelligence and big data mining.
The most commonly used method for estimating the collision probability of the marine ship at present is derived from a ship field method which is proposed in the 70 th century and gradually perfected by the later. Is popular in research due to its simplicity and robustness, and is considered as a basic and powerful method of handling ship voyage risk assessment. However, the ship domain based approach also has some drawbacks. First, the ship domain defines regions of different sizes and shapes that are safe for the present ship without the entry of the target ship. It means that the risk of the own ship is qualitative, with only two simple values, 0 or 1. The rough assessment may result in insufficient information to avoid collisions. Moreover, there is currently no effective way to measure risk between ship domains. Therefore, it is necessary to perform a qualitative assessment that varies the risk with the location of the two vessels.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a collision risk assessment method based on the collision area in the ship field. The invention provides a method for systematically estimating collision risks of two mobile water surface vessels based on the concept of the field of vessels. According to the method, related variables affecting the size of the ship field are selected, the ship field of an asymmetric polygon is constructed through fuzzy rules, and the ship field is revised according to international ocean convention. The calculation method of the instantaneous conflict area of the ship fields of the two ships is described, and the conflict area is converted into the ship conflict rate. And then setting time weight, and performing time integration on the collision rate of the instantaneous ship field to obtain collision risk, wherein the collision risk can be regarded as a more direct measure of traffic risk. The method solves the problem that the collision risk evaluation in the prior ship field is too rough, and can provide more direct and finer risk early warning for crews.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems comprises the following specific steps:
the method comprises a ship domain building stage and a collision risk assessment stage, wherein the ship domain building stage comprises the following steps of:
step one, selecting characteristic variables affecting the dimension of the field of ships and distributing corresponding weights;
setting a fuzzy number to form a fuzzy rule;
step three, inputting the characteristic variable value into a fuzzy rule to obtain a basic size coefficient VL;
step four, constructing an asymmetric polygonal ship field model according to the distance length coefficient VL and the length width of the ship;
fifthly, performing offset operation on the ship field in the fourth step according to the set collision avoidance rule cost to obtain a final ship field model;
the collision risk assessment phase comprises the following steps:
step six, executing a ship field construction stage to generate an asymmetric polygonal ship field model of the target ship and the obstacle ship;
and seventhly, determining the coordinates of the polygonal intersection points in the two ship fields through a rapid rejection experiment and a straddling experiment. And solving the coordinates of the inner points of the two polygons.
And step eight, sorting the intersection points and the inner points obtained in the step seven by a slope method, obtaining the edge area, namely the instantaneous conflict area of the two ship fields according to a shoelace algorithm, and converting the instantaneous conflict area of the ship fields into the instantaneous conflict rate of the ship fields.
Step nine, setting time step, revising coordinates of the target ship and the obstacle ship, setting time threshold and time weight, and circularly executing the step seven and the step eight by a simulation integration method to obtain integration of collision area of the ship field along with time, wherein the size of the integration can be regarded as the measurement of collision risk of the target ship.
And step ten, constructing a conversion function, and converting the magnitude of the integral into a ship collision risk degree of 0-1.
The ship field construction stage specifically comprises the following steps:
firstly, selecting relevant variables affecting the field size of the ship, namely ten variables of selected captain, shipwidth, ship running speed and direction, sea surface visibility, ocean wind speed and direction, ocean current speed and direction, regional ship concentration, regional history accident, driver driving age and ship operability which actually affect the collision risk of the ship;
secondly, carrying out weight evaluation on ten variables, obtaining the weight of each variable through expert evaluation and analytic hierarchy process, and obtaining a weight set W= [ W ] 1 ，w 2 ，w 3 ，…w n-1 ，w n ]Wherein n is the variable number, so that the ship domain model is conveniently constructed.
Thirdly, designating low, medium and high basic grades of each variable according to marine general division standards, and obtaining quantized values of each parameter by adopting a Mamdani model reasoning method; wherein the fuzzy rule uses a multiple-input single-output (MISO) IF-THEN rule, and the fuzzy function uses triangle and trapezoid membership functions;
fourth, inputting various variable parameters of the ship into the fuzzy rule, adding the weight coefficient obtained in the second step to the output result, and obtaining the ship by
Obtaining a distance length coefficient VL, wherein VL is the length of a vertex in a polygonal ship domain from the center of the polygon, and size is the result of single variable fuzzification output, and size [ k ]]Is the result of the output of the kth variable fuzzy rule; the content in the root number is a result after the summation of multiple variables, the value of VL determines the size of the ship field, and the size of the ship field in the final result is 2-5 times of the ship length and width in the corresponding direction;
fifthly, calculating the vertex coordinates according to the ship center point coordinates and the distance length coefficients, and obtaining the vertex coordinates according to a formula
Obtaining, wherein x i ，y i Representing the x, y coordinates, x, corresponding to the ith vertex 0 ，y 0 Representing the coordinates of the center position of the ship, vcount is the number of vertexes of a polygonal ship field model, and alpha x [ i ]]、αy[i]And (3) constructing an asymmetric polygonal ship domain model for the ith vertex ship domain correction coefficient according to the obtained vertex coordinates of the ship domain, and performing offset operation on the ship domain in the fourth step according to the set collision avoidance rule cost to obtain a final ship domain model.
The collision risk assessment stage specifically includes:
firstly, constructing the ship domain of a target ship and a barrier ship according to the construction method of the ship domain model explained in the first step;
secondly, judging whether the polygonal ship fields of the target ship and the obstacle ship are intersected by using a rapid rejection experiment and a hurdle experiment for judging whether the line segments are intersected, and if not, avoiding collision risk; if the two polygonal ship fields are intersected, an intersection point is obtained through a line segment intersection point obtaining method, and if the vertex of one polygonal ship field is in the other polygonal ship field, the point is called an inner point; sequentially judging whether each vertex is an internal point by using a ray method, and recording corresponding internal point coordinates;
thirdly, according to the coordinates of the intersection point and the inner point, each vertex is ordered clockwise or anticlockwise by using a slope algorithm, so that the vertex meets the carrying-in requirement of a shoelace algorithm;
fourth step, shoelace algorithm is used
The instantaneous conflict area of the ship field of the target ship and the obstacle ship is obtained; in which x is i ,y i Represents the abscissa and ordinate of the ith vertex, n is the number of the present vertices, S representsIf i=n, i+1 represents the 1 st point;
fifthly, setting a time step length and a time threshold value, wherein the time step length delta t is set to be 1s, and the time threshold value t is set to be 720s; the time weights are set as one group per minute, and the same weight w= [0.153,0.141,0.128,0.115,0.102,0.089,0.076,0.0641,0.051,0.038,0.025,0.012 ] exists in each group]By analog integration methods
Obtaining the integral of the collision rate of the ship field along with time, and obtaining the analog integral of the collision area of the ship field within t minutes, wherein the step length of the analog integral is Deltat seconds, S A For the area of the ship field, S B Is the area of the field of barrier ships, w i Time weight of ith second, S ci As the collision area in the field of the ship in the ith second, risk is a measure of the collision Risk of the ship;
sixth, constructing an ln function,
and determining the nesting layer number according to the t/deltat, and converting the Risk measurement into a collision Risk degree between 0 and 1, namely, taking the Risk as the measurement of the collision Risk of the target ship.
The method has the beneficial effects of breaking through the limitation of judging the binary collision risk by the traditional ship field model, innovating a ship dynamic collision risk assessment method based on the ship field model, intelligently and accurately measuring navigation related risks, and having important theoretical and practical significance for modernization of maritime safety management and intelligent development of ship traffic management. The invention solves the problems that in the prior art, the risk is 1 and the risk is 0 only by the rough binary judgment of whether the risk exists or not through invasion. The invention carries out finer measurement on the collision risk, converts the risk degree into a specific numerical value between 0 and 1, can better remind the crewman to pay attention to the existing collision risk, and helps the crewman to make proper navigation risk avoidance decisions so as to protect life safety and property safety.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a collision risk assessment method based on a collision area in the field of ships.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a ship domain model provided by the invention.
Fig. 3 is a schematic view of a ship domain conflict provided by the invention.
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a slope algorithm ordering provided by the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described with reference to the drawings and examples.
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the following examples in order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. The collision risk assessment method based on the ship domain collision area comprises the following steps:
firstly, selecting related variables influencing the size of the ship field, setting weights for the variables according to a weight analysis method such as an AHP (advanced high performance liquid chromatography) analytic hierarchy process and the like, constructing the ship field of an asymmetric polygon through a fuzzy rule, and revising the ship field according to an international ocean convention.
And step two, calculating the ship domain instantaneous conflict area of the two ships based on the ship domain model, and converting the conflict area into the ship conflict rate. And then setting time weight, and performing time integration on the instantaneous ship domain conflict rate to obtain the collision risk.
Further, the first step specifically includes:
in a first step, the relevant variables affecting the dimensions of the field of the vessel, i.e. the relevant variables actually affecting the risk of collision of the vessel, are selected. The variables selected by the embodiment include: the ship length, the ship width, the ship speed, the sea wave height, the regional ship concentration, the driving age of a driver, the regional historical accident number, the ocean visibility and the ship maneuverability.
And secondly, carrying out weight evaluation on the variables, and analyzing the weight of each variable to obtain a weight set. W= [ W ] 1 ，w 2 ，w 3 ，…w n-1 ，w n ]Where n is the number of variables. And the next step of building the ship field model is facilitated. The embodiment uses a basic AHP analytic hierarchy process to obtain the weight coefficient w= [0.037,0.039,0.074,0.066,0.187,0.133,0.094,0.146,0.224 ] of the nine variables]。
And thirdly, designating the grading fuzzy numerical value of each variable according to the marine general standard, and constructing a fuzzy rule through triangle and trapezoid membership functions. Such as: the language input variable "ship length (L)" is defined according to the distribution of ship length data in the ClassNK analysis AIS data. From this analysis, it was determined that the ship length values of 130/190/250 m satisfy small, medium, and large (universal dimensions (ullength= [130, 250 ]). The ambiguities of these three language terms are constructed as short= (130, 130, 130, 190), medium= (130, 190, 250), large= (190, 250, 250) using trapezoidal and triangular membership functions.
TABLE 1 variable fuzzy rule data sheet for ship domain
Fourth, inputting various variable parameters of the ship into a fuzzy rule, fuzzifying by using trapezoidal and triangular membership functions, adding the weight coefficient of the third step, and finally outputting the distance length coefficient from each vertex to the center point in the polygonal ship field through the fuzzy rule
The ship domain model of the asymmetric octagon is formed by the embodiment, wherein i represents an ith vertex, and VL represents the length of the vertex in the polygonal domain from the center of the polygon. size is the result of single variable fuzzification output, size [ k ]]Is the result of the blurring output of the kth variable. The content in the root is the result of the summation of the multivariate flattening method. The value of VL determines the size of the ship domain, which in the final result should be between 2-5 times the length and width of the ship in the corresponding direction.
Fifthly, calculating the vertex coordinates according to the ship center point coordinates and the distance length coefficients. From the formula
Obtaining the product. Wherein xi, yi represent the x, y coordinates corresponding to the ith vertex. x0 and y0 represent coordinates of the center position of the ship. Vcount is the number of vertices of the polygonal ship domain model. According to different azimuth situations of the ship in meeting, the corresponding different collision avoidance responsibilities can be subdivided into six situations. According to the rule, the range of the ship domain in different directions is correspondingly adjusted, and finally, a ship domain model, namely alpha x [ i ], is constructed]、αy[i]And (5) correcting the coefficient for the ith vertex ship field. The constructed ship domain model is shown in fig. 2.
Further, the second step specifically includes:
first, according to the method for constructing the ship domain model in the first step, the ship domain of the target ship and the barrier ship is constructed. Then the ship field model is rotated by an angle according to the ship running direction
x= (x 0-xi) cos (θ) - (y 0-yi) sin (θ) +xi y= (x 0-xi) sin (θ) - (y 0-yi) cos (θ) +yi wherein x, y represents the new coordinates of each point, x0, y0 represents the center point coordinates, xi, yi represents the original coordinates of the vertex, and θ represents the rotation angle, i.e., the ship travel direction angle.
And secondly, judging whether the polygonal ship field is intersected by using a rapid rejection experiment and a hurdle experiment, and if not, avoiding collision risk. If the two polygonal ship fields intersect, an intersection point of the two polygonal ship fields is obtained, and a corresponding interior point is obtained by using an interior point obtaining method. As shown in fig. 3, the two ship domain conflict area includes two intersection points and two interior points.
And thirdly, using a slope algorithm to order the intersection points and the inner points clockwise or anticlockwise. Since the shoelace algorithm requires the polygon vertices to be ordered clockwise or counterclockwise when calculating the polygon area (including triangles, quadrilaterals), the vertices of the conflict area are ordered using a slope algorithm. As shown in fig. 4, one vertex (x 0, y 0) of the polygon is arbitrarily selected, then the slope ki= (yi-y 1)/(xi-x 1) of each of the remaining vertices (xi, yi) and the rest thereof is sequentially found, and then the order is made according to the slope magnitude order.
Fourth, shoelace algorithm formula is used
And obtaining the instantaneous conflict area of the two ship fields.
Fifthly, setting time step and time threshold, setting time weight, and calculating the integral of the conflict rate of the ship field along with time through a simulation integral method. In the embodiment selected in the description, the threshold value in the classical TCPA method is used, namely, the analog integral of the collision area of the ship field within 12 minutes is calculated, the integral step length is 1 second, the time weights are one group per minute, and the same weight w= [0.153,0.141,0.128,0.115,0.102,0.089,0.076,0.0641,0.051,0.038,0.025,0.012 ] exists in each group]. From the formula
And obtaining the collision risk rate of the ship. S in A For the area of the ship field, S B Is the area of the field of barrier ships, w i Time weight of ith second, S ci For the collision area of the ith second ship domain, j= [ i/60 ]]. The final Risk is the collision Risk of the two vessels.
Sixth, constructing an ln function,
and determining the number of nested 8 layers according to the t/deltat, and converting the Risk metric into a collision Risk degree between 0 and 1.
Claims (3)
1. The collision risk assessment method based on the collision area in the ship field is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
the method comprises a ship domain building stage and a collision risk assessment stage, wherein the ship domain building stage comprises the following steps of:
step one, selecting characteristic variables affecting the dimension of the field of ships and distributing corresponding weights;
setting a fuzzy number to form a fuzzy rule;
step three, inputting the characteristic variable value into a fuzzy rule to obtain a basic size coefficient VL;
step four, constructing an asymmetric polygonal ship field model according to the distance length coefficient VL and the length width of the ship;
fifthly, performing offset operation on the ship field in the fourth step according to the set collision avoidance rule cost to obtain a final ship field model;
the collision risk assessment phase comprises the following steps:
step six, executing a ship field construction stage to generate an asymmetric polygonal ship field model of the target ship and the obstacle ship;
step seven, determining the coordinates of the intersection points of polygons in the two ship fields through a rapid rejection experiment and a straddling experiment, and solving the coordinates of the inner points of the two polygons;
step eight, sorting the intersection points and the interior points obtained in the step seven by a slope method, obtaining the edge area, namely the instantaneous conflict area of two ship fields according to a shoelace algorithm, and converting the instantaneous conflict area of the ship fields into the instantaneous conflict rate of the ship fields;
step nine, setting time step, revising coordinates of a target ship and a barrier ship, setting a time threshold value and a time weight, and circularly executing the step seven and the step eight by a method of simulating integration to obtain integration of collision area of the ship field along with time, wherein the size of the integration can be regarded as the measurement of collision risk of the target ship;
and step ten, constructing a conversion function, and converting the magnitude of the integral into a ship collision risk degree of 0-1.
2. The collision risk assessment method based on the ship domain collision area according to claim 1, characterized in that: the ship field construction stage specifically comprises the following steps:
firstly, selecting relevant variables affecting the field size of the ship, namely ten variables of selected captain, shipwidth, ship running speed and direction, sea surface visibility, ocean wind speed and direction, ocean current speed and direction, regional ship concentration, regional history accident, driver driving age and ship operability which actually affect the collision risk of the ship;
secondly, carrying out weight evaluation on ten variables, obtaining the weight of each variable through expert evaluation and analytic hierarchy process, and obtaining a weight set W= [ W ] 1 ，w 2 ，w 3 ，…w n-1 ，w n ]Wherein n is the variable number, so that the ship domain model is conveniently constructed;
thirdly, designating low, medium and high basic grades of each variable according to marine general division standards, and obtaining quantized values of each parameter by adopting a Mamdani model reasoning method; wherein the fuzzy rule uses a multiple-input single-output (MISO) IF-THEN rule, and the fuzzy function uses triangle and trapezoid membership functions;
fourth, inputting various variable parameters of the ship into the fuzzy rule, adding the weight coefficient obtained in the second step to the output result, and obtaining the ship by
Obtaining a distance length coefficient VL, wherein VL is the length of a vertex in a polygonal ship domain from the center of the polygon, and size is the result of single variable fuzzification output, and size [ k ]]Is the result of the output of the kth variable fuzzy rule; the content in the root number is a result after the summation of multiple variables, the value of VL determines the size of the ship field, and the size of the ship field in the final result is 2-5 times of the ship length and width in the corresponding direction;
fifthly, calculating the vertex coordinates according to the ship center point coordinates and the distance length coefficients, and obtaining the vertex coordinates according to a formula
Obtaining, wherein x i ，y i Representing the x, y coordinates, x, corresponding to the ith vertex 0 ，y 0 Representing the coordinates of the center position of the ship, vcount is the number of vertexes of a polygonal ship field model, and alpha x [ i ]]、αy[i]For the ith vertex ship field correction coefficient, finally constructing an asymmetric polygonal ship according to the obtained ship field vertex coordinatesAnd (3) carrying out offset operation on the ship field in the step four according to the set collision avoidance rule cost by the ship field model to obtain a final ship field model.
3. The collision risk assessment method based on the ship domain collision area according to claim 1, characterized in that:
the collision risk assessment stage specifically includes:
firstly, constructing the ship domain of a target ship and a barrier ship according to the construction method of the ship domain model explained in the first step;
secondly, judging whether the polygonal ship fields of the target ship and the obstacle ship are intersected by using a rapid rejection experiment and a hurdle experiment for judging whether the line segments are intersected, and if not, avoiding collision risk; if the two polygonal ship fields are intersected, an intersection point is obtained through a line segment intersection point obtaining method, and if the vertex of one polygonal ship field is in the other polygonal ship field, the point is called an inner point; sequentially judging whether each vertex is an internal point by using a ray method, and recording corresponding internal point coordinates;
thirdly, according to the coordinates of the intersection point and the inner point, each vertex is ordered clockwise or anticlockwise by using a slope algorithm, so that the vertex meets the carrying-in requirement of a shoelace algorithm;
fourth step, shoelace algorithm is used
The instantaneous conflict area of the ship field of the target ship and the obstacle ship is obtained; in which x is i ,y i Representing the abscissa and ordinate of the ith vertex, n is the number of the present vertices, S represents the obtained area, and if i=n during calculation, i+1 represents the 1 st point;
fifthly, setting a time step length and a time threshold value, wherein the time step length delta t is set to be 1s, and the time threshold value t is set to be 720s; setting time weights per minute as a group, wherein each group has the same weight w i By analog integration methods
Obtaining the integral of the collision rate of the ship field along with time, and obtaining the analog integral of the collision area of the ship field within t minutes, wherein the step length of the analog integral is Deltat seconds, S A For the area of the ship field, S B Is the area of the field of barrier ships, w i Time weight of ith second, S ci As the collision area in the field of the ship in the ith second, risk is a measure of the collision Risk of the ship;
sixth, constructing an ln function,
and determining the nesting layer number according to the t/deltat, and converting the Risk measurement into a collision Risk degree between 0 and 1, namely, taking the Risk as the measurement of the collision Risk of the target ship.
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