CN114925517A - Urban multi-disaster coupling analysis method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for coupling analysis of urban multiple disasters, which comprises the steps of collecting multiple disasters data, establishing a disaster model, predicting accident chaining, simulating accident simulation, evaluating disaster accidents, analyzing results and suggesting, wherein the collected data are specifically subdivided into information such as building information, environmental temperature, air pressure, vibration and the like, and the information is added according to actual conditions, so that in the process of the multiple disasters coupling analysis, the analysis and prediction of causes can be more effectively carried out according to multiple information, the follow-up prevention measure is formulated and helped, the multiple disasters model is established, the accident chaining prediction and simulation are carried out, the analysis of on-site disaster situations and the follow-up accompanying secondary disaster prediction and analysis are effectively helped when analysts acquire multiple concurrent disasters, the types and data quantity of data acquisition are effectively improved, and the multiple disasters coupling simulation can be more intuitively carried out, the analysis and prediction of the subsequent secondary disasters are realized, and the accuracy of evaluation and analysis is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of multi-disaster analysis, in particular to a method for coupling analysis of urban multi-disaster species.
Background
The public safety is mainly focused on cities, safety is the first element of modern cities, the urban safety guarantee is generally and highly emphasized by governments, society and the public, public safety science and technology is an effective support for effectively coping with emergencies and improving emergency capacity, and urban public safety research facilities are necessary means for developing urban public safety science and technology. The current urban public safety emergency has wide influence range and presents the characteristics of complex disaster secondary derivation and mutual coupling.
The patent with the patent number of CN201910318624.0 provides a method and a system for analyzing multi-disaster coupling cascading failures of a power grid, a primary parameter and a secondary parameter of the power grid are obtained, and a dynamic power grid system model is established; acquiring external environment data, inputting the external environment data into a dynamic power grid system model, judging whether an external power grid fault event exists, and acquiring a sequence of power grid element faults caused by the external environment in an initial power grid operation mode; establishing a power grid hybrid differential algebraic equation; simulating a dynamic power grid system model according to initial conditions of power grid cascading failure simulation analysis and the established power grid hybrid differential algebraic equation; during simulation, judging whether the power grid is disconnected or not according to the admittance matrix Ybus, and if the power grid is not disconnected, continuing to operate; judging whether the simulation is finished; forming a power grid successive fault accident chain; and (4) outputting simulation data and comprehensively evaluating the operation risk of the power grid.
The above patent has the following problems:
1. in the process of carrying out multi-disaster coupling analysis, the information acquisition has poor type comprehensiveness, and multi-disaster coupling simulation cannot be carried out intuitively;
2. in the process of carrying out multi-disaster coupling analysis, analysis and prediction on subsequent secondary disasters are not included, so that analysis and misjudgment on various urban disasters are easy to occur.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis, which is characterized in that when multi-disaster data are collected, the collected data are specifically subdivided into information such as building information, ambient temperature, ambient humidity, air pressure, vibration and the like, and the information can be added according to actual conditions, so that in the process of multi-disaster coupling analysis, cause analysis and prediction can be more effectively carried out according to various information, help is provided for the formulation of subsequent preventive measures, a multi-disaster model is established at the same time, accident chain prediction and simulation are carried out, and the analysis of on-site disaster situations and the subsequent accompanying secondary disaster prediction and analysis when an analyst obtains the concurrence of multiple disasters are effectively helped, so as to solve the problems proposed in the background technology.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a method for coupling analysis of urban multiple disaster species comprises the following steps:
s1: collecting multiple kinds of data, collecting background information data of places where urban disaster accidents occur frequently, installing equipment such as an information acquisition camera, an airflow and vibration sensor and the like near the places where the disaster accidents occur frequently, and collecting various kinds of information such as images, temperatures, airflows, vibrations and the like of the places where the disaster accidents occur frequently;
s2: establishing a disaster model, namely performing data analysis on a disaster source of a natural disaster or a man-made disaster, making a fixed background model of a disaster area, and performing dynamic digital model on unstable factors in the disaster area;
s3: accident chaining prediction, namely analyzing possible disaster accident types according to the established disaster type model, and predicting a chaining reaction result possibly generated by coupling of multiple disaster accidents according to the disaster accident types;
s4: simulating accidents, namely, according to the established disaster model, simulating two or more disaster accidents by changing the data information of the unstable factors in the dynamic digital modeling;
s5: evaluating the disaster accident, comparing the disaster accident chaining prediction result with the disaster accident simulation result, and grading the multi-disaster coupling simulation result and the possible multi-disaster chaining result according to the disaster accident degree;
s6: analyzing the result and suggestion, providing a post-disaster reconstruction suggestion after the occurrence of the multiple disaster accidents according to the result of the grade evaluation, and providing a follow-up disaster prevention suggestion according to the disaster model, the simulation and the chain prediction.
Preferably, the collection of the multiple disaster data in S1 includes a building information collection module, an ambient temperature collection module, an ambient humidity collection module, an air pressure collection module, an airflow collection module, a vibration information collection module, and other information collection modules;
the building information collection module is used for collecting data and image information of surrounding buildings, terrains and the like of an urban disaster accident site;
the environment temperature collecting module is used for monitoring the environment temperature of the urban disaster accident site in real time and collecting information;
the environment humidity collecting module is used for monitoring the environment humidity of the urban disaster accident site in real time and collecting information;
the air pressure collecting module is used for monitoring the air pressure of the space where the urban disaster accident occurs in real time and collecting information;
the vibration information collection module is used for monitoring and collecting vibration information of the earth surface near the urban disaster accident site in real time;
and the other information collection module is used for actively adding and collecting other types of information.
Preferably, the method for establishing the disaster model comprises the following steps;
s201: gathering the surrounding environment information of the urban disaster accident, analyzing and classifying the surrounding environment information, and constructing a model by adopting a form of combining an element model and a simulation color model;
s202: adopting a matrix model mode to carry out fixed combined modeling on buildings, roads, terrains, mountains, rivers and the like near the disasters around the city;
s203: adopting a simulated color body model form to carry out combined modeling on variable factors such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, peripheral vibration amplitude and the like in a city peripheral disaster area;
s204: and combining the body model with the simulated color body model, and setting the range of model parameters in the simulated color body model.
Preferably, the accident chaining prediction method includes the following steps:
s301: analyzing and drawing up possible disaster modes according to surrounding environment data information collected by urban disasters frequently, and classifying information of individual disaster types according to the occurrence form and the hazard degree of the disasters;
s302: randomly selecting two or more than two disaster species for interactive coupling analysis, and collecting data of the interactive coupling analysis;
s303: establishing a coupling probability model according to the disaster type model and the interactive data, and calculating the probability of chain reaction of two or more disaster types according to the occurrence probability of different disaster types by the coupling probability model;
s304: and predicting the damage degree and the damage range of the surrounding environment after the occurrence of the multi-disaster coupling chain reaction, and making a corresponding facility damage model.
Preferably, the accident simulation method includes the following steps:
s401: adjusting various data parameters in the model according to the disaster model data, and performing multiple real-time three-dimensional module simulation to obtain accident consequence data;
s402: establishing an accident consequence model, and calculating and predicting the probability of secondary disaster according to the post-accident result data and the accident consequence model;
s403: making a three-dimensional model by using the accident consequence model, performing three-dimensional simulation on a secondary disaster according to a plurality of groups of real-time simulation data, and recording simulation data;
s404: and collecting accident consequence data after the coupling of the disaster model occurs and simulating the secondary disaster to obtain simulation data, and classifying according to the occurrence probability and the disaster consequence degree.
Preferably, the damage model in S304 includes an environmental damage image information report, a temperature rise and drop interval, a humidity change interval, an air pressure change activity interval, a vibration information implementation change interval, and other model change intervals.
Preferably, the evaluation of the disaster accident in S5 includes a disaster management example database, an integrated evaluation of occurrence probability, an evaluation of occurrence rate of secondary disaster, an integrated evaluation of damage range, a comparison evaluation of historical examples, and an evaluation of manual information.
Preferably, the analysis result and the suggestion in S6 include a disaster evaluation result information base, a history establishing and browsing information base, a disaster model evaluation, an analog simulation and chaining evaluation, and a manual information evaluation.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the invention provides a city multi-disaster coupling analysis method, in the prior art, in the process of multi-disaster coupling analysis, the information acquisition type comprehensiveness is poor, and multi-disaster coupling simulation cannot be intuitively carried out, but in the process of information collection, by acquiring surrounding environment information, establishing a visual model through the environment information, and utilizing the visual model to carry out multi-disaster simulation and chaining reaction prediction, the comprehensiveness of the information acquisition type is improved, meanwhile, an analyst can more intuitively acquire and predict disaster information, and simulation coupling analysis of the multi-disaster is realized;
2. according to the method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis, in the prior art, during the multi-disaster coupling analysis, analysis and prediction of subsequent secondary disasters are not included, so that analysis and misjudgment of the urban multi-disaster are easy to occur.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart illustrating the steps of the multi-disaster coupling analysis according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is an internal block diagram of the disaster-prone data collection of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating steps of disaster model building according to the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a flow chart of the steps of the accident chaining prediction of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a flow chart of the steps of the accident simulation of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis includes the following steps:
s1: collecting multiple kinds of data, collecting background information data of places where urban disaster accidents occur frequently, installing equipment such as an information acquisition camera, an airflow and vibration sensor and the like near the places where the disaster accidents occur frequently, and collecting various kinds of information such as images, temperatures, airflows, vibrations and the like of the places where the disaster accidents occur frequently;
s2: establishing a disaster model, namely performing data analysis on a disaster source of a natural disaster or a man-made disaster, making a fixed background model of a disaster area, and performing dynamic digital model on unstable factors in the disaster area;
s3: accident chaining prediction, namely analyzing possible disaster accident types according to the established disaster type model, and predicting a chaining reaction result possibly generated by coupling of multiple disaster accidents according to the disaster accident types;
s4: simulating accidents, namely, according to the established disaster model, simulating two or more disaster accidents by changing the data information of the unstable factors in the dynamic digital modeling;
s5: evaluating the disaster accidents, namely comparing the disaster accident chaining prediction result with the disaster accident simulation result, and grading the multi-disaster coupling simulation result and the possibly-occurring multi-disaster chaining result according to the disaster accident degree, wherein the disaster accident evaluation comprises a disaster management example database, integrated occurrence probability evaluation, secondary disaster occurrence rate evaluation, integrated damage range evaluation, historical example comparison evaluation and manual information evaluation;
s6: analyzing results and suggestions, providing post-disaster reconstruction suggestions after the occurrence of the multiple disaster accidents according to the results of the grade evaluation, and providing subsequent disaster prevention suggestions according to the disaster model, the simulation and the chain prediction, wherein the analysis results and the suggestions comprise a multiple disaster evaluation result information base, a history establishing browsing information base, disaster model evaluation, simulation and chain evaluation and manual information evaluation.
Referring to fig. 2, the collection of the multiple disaster data in S1 includes a building information collection module, an ambient temperature collection module, an ambient humidity collection module, an air pressure collection module, an air flow collection module, a vibration information collection module, and other information collection modules;
the building information collection module is used for collecting data and image information of surrounding buildings, terrains and the like of the urban disaster accident site;
the system comprises an ambient temperature collecting module, a data processing module and a data processing module, wherein the ambient temperature collecting module is used for monitoring the ambient temperature of an urban disaster accident site in real time and collecting information;
the environment humidity collecting module is used for monitoring the environment humidity of the urban disaster accident site in real time and collecting information;
the air pressure collecting module is used for monitoring the air pressure of the space where the urban disaster accident occurs in real time and collecting information;
the vibration information collection module is used for monitoring and collecting the vibration information of the earth surface near the urban disaster accident site in real time;
and the other information collection module is used for actively adding and collecting other types of information.
Referring to fig. 3, the method for establishing a disaster model includes the following steps;
s201: gathering surrounding environment information of the urban disaster accident, analyzing and classifying the surrounding environment information, and constructing a model by adopting a form of combining an element model and a simulation color model;
s202: adopting a matrix model mode to carry out fixed combined modeling on buildings, roads, terrains, mountains, rivers and the like near the disasters around the city;
s203: the method comprises the following steps of performing combined modeling on variable factors such as temperature, humidity, air pressure and peripheral vibration amplitude of a city peripheral disaster area by adopting a simulated color body model;
s204: and combining the body model with the simulated color body model, and setting the range of model parameters in the simulated color body model.
Referring to fig. 4, the method for accident chaining prediction includes the following steps:
s301: analyzing and drawing up possible disaster modes according to surrounding environment data information collected by urban disasters frequently, and classifying information of individual disaster types according to the occurrence form and the hazard degree of the disasters;
s302: randomly selecting two or more than two disaster species for interactive coupling analysis, and collecting data of the interactive coupling analysis;
s303: establishing a coupling probability model according to the disaster type model and the interactive data, and calculating the probability of chain reaction of two or more disaster types according to the occurrence probability of different disaster types by the coupling probability model;
s304: and predicting the degree and the damage range of the surrounding environment damage after the occurrence of the multi-disaster coupling chaining reaction, and making a corresponding facility damage model, wherein the damage model comprises an environment damage image information report, a temperature rise and drop interval, a humidity change interval, an air pressure change activity interval, a vibration information implementation change interval and other model change intervals.
Referring to fig. 5, the method for simulating an accident includes the following steps:
s401: adjusting various data parameters in the model according to the disaster model data, and performing multiple real-time three-dimensional module simulation to obtain accident consequence data;
s402: establishing an accident consequence model, and calculating and predicting the probability of secondary disaster according to the post-accident result data and the accident consequence model;
s403: making a three-dimensional model by using the accident consequence model, performing three-dimensional simulation on a secondary disaster according to a plurality of groups of real-time simulation data, and recording simulation data;
s404: and collecting accident consequence data after the coupling of the disaster model occurs and simulating the secondary disaster to obtain simulation data, and classifying according to the occurrence probability and the disaster consequence degree.
In conclusion: the method for coupling and analyzing the urban multiple disasters comprises the steps of subdividing collected data into information such as building information, environmental temperature, environmental humidity, air pressure, vibration and the like when collecting the multiple disasters, adding the information according to actual conditions, so that in the process of coupling and analyzing the multiple disasters, analysis and prediction of reasons can be more effectively carried out according to the multiple information, assistance is provided for formulation of subsequent preventive measures, a multiple disasters model is established, accident chaining prediction and simulation are carried out, analysis of on-site disaster situations and subsequent secondary disaster prediction and analysis are effectively assisted when analysts acquire the multiple disasters, comparison is carried out according to data of the accident chaining prediction and the simulation, and grading is carried out on multiple disasters coupling simulation results and possible multiple chaining simulation results according to disaster accident degrees, and finally, providing a post-disaster reconstruction suggestion and a subsequent disaster prevention suggestion after the occurrence of the multi-disaster accident according to the evaluation information bureau grade evaluation result.
The above description is only for the preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art should be considered as the technical solutions and the inventive concepts of the present invention within the technical scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. A method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: collecting multiple kinds of data, collecting background information data of places where urban disaster accidents occur frequently, installing equipment such as an information acquisition camera, an airflow and vibration sensor and the like near the places where the disaster accidents occur frequently, and collecting various kinds of information such as images, temperatures, airflows, vibrations and the like of the places where the disaster accidents occur frequently;
s2: establishing a disaster model, namely performing data analysis on a disaster source of a natural disaster or a man-made disaster, making a fixed background model of a disaster area, and performing dynamic digital model on unstable factors in the disaster area;
s3: accident chaining prediction, namely analyzing possible disaster accident types according to the established disaster type model, and predicting a chaining reaction result possibly generated by multi-disaster accident coupling according to the disaster accident types;
s4: simulating accidents, namely, according to the established disaster model, simulating two or more disaster accidents by changing the data information of the unstable factors in the dynamic digital building model;
s5: evaluating the disaster accident, comparing the disaster accident chaining prediction result with the disaster accident simulation result, and grading the multi-disaster coupling simulation result and the possible multi-disaster chaining result according to the disaster accident degree;
s6: analyzing the result and suggestion, providing a post-disaster reconstruction suggestion after the occurrence of the multiple disaster accidents according to the result of the grade evaluation, and providing a follow-up disaster prevention suggestion according to the disaster model, the simulation and the chain prediction.
2. The method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis according to claim 1, wherein: the multi-disaster data collection in S1 includes a building information collection module, an ambient temperature collection module, an ambient humidity collection module, an air pressure collection module, an air flow collection module, a vibration information collection module, and other information collection modules;
the building information collection module is used for collecting data and image information of surrounding buildings, terrains and the like of the urban disaster accident site;
the environment temperature collecting module is used for monitoring the environment temperature of the urban disaster accident site in real time and collecting information;
the environment humidity collecting module is used for monitoring the environment humidity of the urban disaster accident site in real time and collecting information;
the air pressure collecting module is used for monitoring the air pressure of the space where the urban disaster accident occurs in real time and collecting information;
the vibration information collection module is used for monitoring and collecting vibration information of the earth surface near the urban disaster accident site in real time;
and the other information collection module is used for actively adding and collecting other types of information.
3. The method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis according to claim 1, wherein said method for modeling disaster species comprises the following steps;
s201: gathering surrounding environment information of the urban disaster accident, analyzing and classifying the surrounding environment information, and constructing a model by adopting a form of combining an element model and a simulation color model;
s202: adopting an element model mode to carry out fixed combined modeling on buildings, roads, terrains, mountains, rivers and the like near the urban peripheral disasters;
s203: the method comprises the following steps of performing combined modeling on variable factors such as temperature, humidity, air pressure and peripheral vibration amplitude of a city peripheral disaster area by adopting a simulated color body model;
s204: and combining the body model with the simulated color body model, and setting the range of model parameters in the simulated color body model.
4. The method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis according to claim 1, wherein said accident chaining prediction method comprises the steps of:
s301: analyzing and drawing up possible disaster modes according to surrounding environment data information collected by urban disasters frequently, and classifying information of individual disaster types according to occurrence forms and damage degrees of the disasters;
s302: randomly selecting two or more than two disaster species for interactive coupling analysis, and collecting data of the interactive coupling analysis;
s303: establishing a coupling probability model according to the disaster type model and the interactive data, and calculating the probability of chain reaction of two or more disaster types according to the occurrence probability of different disaster types by the coupling probability model;
s304: and predicting the damage degree and the damage range of the surrounding environment after the coupling chain reaction of multiple disasters occurs, and manufacturing a corresponding facility damage model.
5. The method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis according to claim 1, wherein the accident simulation method comprises the following steps:
s401: adjusting various data parameters in the model according to the disaster model data, and performing real-time three-dimensional module simulation for multiple times to obtain accident consequence data;
s402: establishing an accident consequence model, and calculating and predicting the probability of secondary disaster according to the post-accident result data and the accident consequence model;
s403: making a three-dimensional model by using the accident consequence model, performing three-dimensional simulation on the secondary disaster according to a plurality of groups of real-time simulation data, and recording simulation data;
s404: and collecting accident consequence data after the coupling of the disaster model occurs and simulating the secondary disaster to obtain simulation data, and classifying according to the occurrence probability and the disaster consequence degree.
6. The method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis according to claim 3, wherein: the damage model in S304 includes an environmental damage image information report, a temperature rise and drop interval, a humidity change interval, an air pressure change activity interval, a vibration information implementation change interval, and other model change intervals.
7. The method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis according to claim 1, wherein: the disaster accident assessment in S5 includes a disaster management paradigm database, an occurrence probability integrated assessment, a secondary disaster occurrence rate assessment, a damage scope integrated assessment, a historical example comparison assessment, and a manual information assessment.
8. The method for urban multi-disaster coupling analysis according to claim 1, wherein: the analysis results and suggestions in the S6 include a multiple disaster assessment result information base, a history establishing browsing information base, a disaster model assessment, an analog simulation and chaining assessment, and a manual information assessment.
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| CN115099536A (en) * | 2022-08-24 | 2022-09-23 | 深圳市城市公共安全技术研究院有限公司 | Disaster chain management and control coping method, system, terminal equipment and medium |
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| CN115099536A (en) * | 2022-08-24 | 2022-09-23 | 深圳市城市公共安全技术研究院有限公司 | Disaster chain management and control coping method, system, terminal equipment and medium |
| CN115099536B (en) * | 2022-08-24 | 2022-11-15 | 深圳市城市公共安全技术研究院有限公司 | Disaster chain management and control coping method, system, terminal equipment and medium |
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