CN114897443A - Ship collision risk assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium - Google Patents
Ship collision risk assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application discloses a ship collision risk assessment method, a device, equipment and a storage medium, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring navigation data and navigation environment data of the ship and a target ship; constructing a comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on barrier and ship dynamic coupling limit, and obtaining a comprehensive limit space-time prism region of the ship and a target ship according to navigation data, navigation environment data and the comprehensive limit space-time prism model of the ship and the target ship; according to the comprehensive limit space-time prism area of the ship and the target ship, the arrival probability and the collision risk area of the ship and the target ship are obtained; and obtaining the ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship. The method provided by the invention can intuitively and quantitatively calculate the space-time accessibility and the risk domain of the ship, can be used for monitoring, controlling and early warning the collision risk of the ship in a coastal operation area, and provides guidance for the water safety management and risk control strategy formulation.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of water traffic management, in particular to a ship collision risk assessment method, device, equipment and storage medium.
Background
Waterway transportation is an important transportation mode, has the characteristics of low cost, large transportation amount and the like, and is generally considered to be the most economic and effective mode for realizing long-distance transnational transregional transportation. The development of water transportation is rapid, and the safety of ship navigation and the collision risk are always important subjects of common attention in academic circles and the industry. However, the collision accident of the ship still occurs in different water areas, which brings about the consequences of property loss, casualties, marine environmental pollution and the like in different degrees. Therefore, effective safety risk assessment and early warning are carried out on water navigation, so that the collision risk of ships and the loss caused by accidents are reduced, and the technical problem to be solved by technical personnel in the field is urgently needed.
In the prior art, the collision risk of a ship can be evaluated by a calculation model based on the safety boundary of the ship or based on the maneuverability of the ship. The collision risk calculation based on the ship safety boundary is carried out according to a ship field model and a collision radius, and is usually determined according to statistical analysis of specific sailing conditions of certain water areas, which is often related to experience knowledge of sailors and the like. Collision risk assessment based on vessel maneuverability often fails to distinguish the combined effect of a particular parameter or parameters, and the parameters are often closely related to the reference vessel. The ship collision risk assessment needs a large amount of data to support through the prior art, and the accuracy is low.
Therefore, the ship collision risk assessment method in the prior art has the problems that the motion behavior of the ship and the meeting process of the ship and an obstacle are not accurately depicted, and the collision risk of the ship is difficult to accurately assess from a multidimensional space comprising position, time, attribute and the like.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, there is a need for a method, an apparatus, an electronic device and a computer readable storage medium for evaluating a collision risk of a ship, which are used to solve the problems of incomplete consideration of space-time behaviors of the ship and the process of limiting water area ship encounter in the existing ship collision risk evaluation model and incapability of accurately evaluating the collision risk of the ship from multiple dimensions.
In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a ship collision risk assessment method, including:
acquiring navigation data and navigation environment data of the ship and a target ship;
constructing a comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on barrier and ship active coupling limit, and obtaining a comprehensive limit space-time prism region of the ship and a target ship according to the navigation data, navigation environment data and the comprehensive limit space-time prism model of the ship and the target ship;
according to the comprehensive limit space-time prism area of the ship and the target ship, obtaining the arrival probability and the collision risk area of the ship and the target ship;
and obtaining the ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship.
Further, the navigation data includes: ship position, ship speed and ship course; the navigable environment data includes: water depth data and static obstacle distribution data.
Further, the building of the comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on the obstacles and the ship dynamic coupling limit comprises the following steps:
based on the distribution of static obstacles, the water depth of a sailing water area and the limits of the speed, the acceleration and the course change rate of the ship, a comprehensive limit space-time prism model of the ship is constructed, and the theoretical reachable range of the ship is determined:
wherein at time intervals
Comprehensively limit space-time prism area at any time
Comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
indicating a time of day of
，
Which represents the latitude coordinate of the ship,
which represents the longitude coordinates of the vessel and,
which is indicative of the speed at which the vessel is cruising,
which represents the course of the ship,
indicating a position
The depth of the water at the place is,
which represents the theoretically achievable range of the ship,
a set of obstacles is represented as a set of obstacles,
representing the draft of the vessel.
Further, the theoretically reachable range of the ship is as follows: the navigation range that the starting point can reach, the navigation range that the arrival point can pass, the initial point dodge the barrier and consider the initial state of boats and ships and give consideration to the initiative navigation range of boats and ships, the arrival point dodge the barrier and consider the final state of boats and ships and give consideration to the coincidence range of the initiative navigation range of boats and ships, wherein:
determining a range of travel reachable from the starting point includes: calculating a navigation range which can be reached by the ship from the starting moment according to the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the reaching point;
determining the range of travel that the arrival point can experience includes: reversely deducing the navigation range which can be passed by the ship from the arrival time according to the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the arrival point;
determining a starting point to avoid the barrier, considering the initial state of the ship and considering the active navigation range of the ship comprises the following steps: calculating the navigation range which can be experienced by the ship from the starting moment according to the distribution of static obstacles, the water depth of a navigation water area, the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the arrival point;
determining an arrival point to avoid a barrier and considering the final state of the ship and the active navigation range of the ship comprises the following steps: and reversely deducing the navigation range which can be passed by the ship from the arrival time according to the distribution of the static obstacles, the water depth of the navigation water area, the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the arrival point.
Further, determining the arrival probability comprises: through the weighting of the reverse distance, the arrival probability of the ship is determined and calculated, and specifically:
order to
Indicates a starting pointiAnd arrival pointjOn straight lines between pointstPoint of arrival of the vessel at timekPosition of (A) totTime of day is different from
The arrival probability of any point a of (a) is:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing the distance between a point a and a point k which can be reached by a barrier and an active coupling limit time t in the space-time prism;
indicating the probability of reaching point a at time t,
representing the sum of the probabilities of all the points that may be reached at time t within the synthetic bounding spatio-temporal prism region.
Further, determining the collision risk domain comprises: and determining the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship according to the non-empty intersection of the comprehensive limit space-time prism region of the ship and the target ship.
Further, obtaining a ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship, including:
determining the ship arrival probability of the ship to reach the collision risk domain and the target ship arrival probability of the target ship to reach the collision risk domain;
and obtaining the ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the ship arrival probability and the target ship arrival probability.
The invention also provides a ship collision risk assessment device, which comprises:
the information acquisition module is used for acquiring navigation data and navigation environment data of the ship and the target ship;
the region determining module is used for constructing a comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on barriers and ship dynamic coupling limit, and obtaining a comprehensive limit space-time prism region of the ship and a target ship according to the navigation data, the navigation environment data and the comprehensive limit space-time prism model of the ship and the target ship;
the parameter calculation module is used for comprehensively limiting a space-time prism region according to the ship and the target ship to obtain the arrival probability and the collision risk region of the ship and the target ship;
and the risk evaluation module is used for obtaining ship collision risk values of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship.
The invention also provides an electronic device, which comprises a processor and a memory, wherein the memory is stored with a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, the ship collision risk assessment method in any of the technical schemes is realized.
The invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, wherein the program medium stores computer program instructions, and when the computer program instructions are executed by a computer, the computer is enabled to execute the ship collision risk assessment method according to any one of the technical schemes.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: firstly, acquiring navigation data and navigation environment data of a ship and a target ship, and providing a comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on barriers and ship dynamic coupling limit to obtain a comprehensive limit space-time prism area of the ship and the target ship; secondly, limiting a space-time prism region according to the synthesis of the ship and the target ship to obtain the arrival probability and the collision risk region of the ship and the target ship; and finally, obtaining the ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship. The method of the invention describes the ship behavior of the limited water area by constructing the comprehensive limit space-time prism based on the barrier and the active coupling, visually displays the change of the ship risk area along with time and space, can perform comprehensive collision risk area analysis according to the motion characteristics of the ship, the actual navigation environment, the ship meeting situation, the water traffic rule and the like, can perform quantitative analysis on the collision risk of the ship by calculating the collision risk value, and provides better data support for the danger situation perception of the complex water area environment and the safety decision of the ship.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a spatiotemporal prism analysis model provided by the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of constructing a synthetic-constrained spatiotemporal prism model according to the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of a method for assessing a risk of ship collision according to the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of determining a collision risk domain of a ship provided by the present invention;
fig. 5(a) is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a ship collision risk distribution situation at time period T1 provided by the present invention;
fig. 5(b) is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a ship collision risk distribution situation at time T2 provided by the present invention;
fig. 5(c) is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a ship collision risk distribution situation at time period T3 provided by the present invention;
FIG. 5(d) is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a distribution of collision risks of a ship at time T4 according to the present invention;
fig. 5(e) is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a ship collision risk distribution situation at time period T5 provided by the present invention;
fig. 5(f) is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a ship collision risk distribution situation at time period T6 provided by the present invention;
FIG. 6(a) is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of the time period average risk and risk criterion difference analysis result of T1 provided by the present invention;
FIG. 6(b) is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of the time period average risk and risk criterion difference analysis result of T2 provided by the present invention;
FIG. 6(c) is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of the time period average risk and risk criterion difference analysis result of T3 provided by the present invention;
FIG. 6(d) is a schematic diagram of one embodiment of the time period average risk and risk criterion difference analysis results of T4 provided by the present invention;
FIG. 6(e) is a schematic diagram of one embodiment of the time period average risk and risk criterion difference analysis results of T5 provided by the present invention;
FIG. 6(f) is a schematic diagram of one embodiment of the time period average risk and risk criterion difference analysis results of T6 provided by the present invention;
fig. 7 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of a ship collision risk assessment apparatus provided in the present invention;
fig. 8 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of an electronic device provided in the present invention.
Detailed Description
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate preferred embodiments of the invention and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention and not to limit the scope of the invention.
Prior to the description of the examples, the relevant terms are paraphrased:
space-time prism: the space-time prism is also called as a space-time prism, is one of concepts frequently used for revealing the time and space relation of a travel subject in the travel process, and is a basic tool used for analyzing space-time accessibility, describing space-time paths and constructing a space-time network. Assuming that the departure time of a certain trip subject is T1, the time taken for trip is T, and the trip subject returns to the departure starting point at the time T1+ T, and the maximum trip speed v, the spatio-temporal prism of the trip subject is as shown in fig. 1. In fig. 1, the hypotenuse of the spatiotemporal prism is the maximum travel speed, the interior of the spatiotemporal pyramid is the spatiotemporal paths of different travel speeds at different times, and the set of all potential spatiotemporal paths forms the spatiotemporal prism, and the projection of the spatiotemporal prism on the physical space is the set of all possible reached activity sites of the travel subject under the assumed conditions. The spatio-temporal prism can not only depict the behavior of a single moving object, but also can depict the spatio-temporal interaction process of a plurality of objects.
And (3) ship dynamic limitation: the ship power driving structure has complete constraint and typical under-actuated characteristic and is influenced by navigation conditions and environmental parameters, so that the ship motion has the characteristics of large inertia, long time lag, nonlinearity and the like. Vessel motion cannot be abstracted as movement in isotropic space with insurmountable obstacles. In analyzing the range of the ship's voyage area, factors that limit the movement of the ship, such as the steering time of the ship, the loss of voyage speed during steering, and the draft of the ship, need to be considered.
The ship collision risk domain is closely related to ship space-time behaviors under the situation that ships meet, and the problem to be solved by the patent is how to accurately model the ship behaviors according to ship navigation environment, water traffic rules, ship maneuvering characteristics and the like based on the thought of the space-time prism by combining the definition of the space-time prism and the ship motility limitation, and further accurately evaluate the multi-ship collision risk of the limited water area.
As shown in fig. 2, (a) the classical spatio-temporal prism model is generally based on the assumption that a moving object can instantaneously change speed and direction without any obstacles in the environment. In order to improve the applicability of the space-time prism to describe the behavior of a moving target in a constrained environment, a (b) obstacle limitation space-time prism model is provided. For the sailing waters of a ship, the obstacles include not only static obstacles (i.e. land, shoals, etc.) but also dynamic obstacles (i.e. different water depths, encountering ships during sailing). Further, the ship motion cannot be abstracted as the movement of an isotropic space with an insurmountable obstacle, and it is necessary to consider the condition of ship dynamic constraint, and (c) an active constraint space-time prism model is proposed on the basis of a classical space-time prism model. The method comprehensively considers the actual active behavior of the ship, and comprehensive constraints such as static barriers, dynamic barriers, water traffic rules and the like in navigation, and provides (d) a space-time prism model for limiting the active coupling of the barriers and the ship.
An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for assessing a risk of ship collision, and fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of the method for assessing a risk of ship collision provided by the present invention, including:
step S101: acquiring navigation data and navigation environment data of the ship and a target ship;
step S102: constructing a comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on barrier and ship active coupling limit, and obtaining a comprehensive limit space-time prism region of the ship and a target ship according to the navigation data, navigation environment data and the comprehensive limit space-time prism model of the ship and the target ship;
step S103: according to the comprehensive limit space-time prism area of the ship and the target ship, obtaining the arrival probability and the collision risk area of the ship and the target ship;
step S104: and obtaining the ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship.
According to the ship collision risk assessment method provided by the embodiment, firstly, navigation data and navigation environment data of a ship and a target ship are obtained, a comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on barriers and ship active coupling limitation is provided, and a comprehensive limit space-time prism area of the ship and the target ship is obtained; secondly, limiting a space-time prism region according to the synthesis of the ship and the target ship to obtain the arrival probability and the collision risk region of the ship and the target ship; and finally, obtaining the ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship. The method of the invention describes the ship behavior of the limited water area by constructing the comprehensive limit space-time prism based on the barrier and the active coupling, visually displays the change of the ship risk area along with time and space, can perform comprehensive collision risk area analysis according to the motion characteristics of the ship, the actual navigation environment, the ship meeting situation, the water traffic rule and the like, can perform quantitative analysis on the collision risk of the ship by calculating the collision risk value, and provides better data support for the danger situation perception of the complex water area environment and the safety decision of the ship.
As a preferred embodiment, in step S101, the navigation data includes: ship position, ship speed and ship course; the navigable environment data includes: water depth data and static obstacle distribution data.
In order to use the analysis concept of the spatiotemporal prism in the risk assessment for limiting the multi-ship collision in the water domain, as a preferred embodiment, in step S102, the building of a comprehensive limited spatiotemporal prism model based on the barriers and the ship dynamic coupling limitation includes:
based on the distribution of static obstacles, the water depth of a sailing water area and the maximum speed of a ship
Maximum acceleration
And maximum rate of change of course
The method comprises the following steps of (1) constructing a comprehensive limit space-time prism model of the ship, and determining a theoretical reachable range of the ship:
wherein at time intervals
Comprehensively limit space-time prism area at any time
Comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
indicating a time of day of
，
Which represents the latitude coordinate of the ship,
which represents the longitude coordinates of the vessel and,
which is indicative of the speed at which the vessel is cruising,
which represents the course of the ship,
indicating a location
The depth of the water at the place is,
which represents the theoretically achievable range of the ship,
a set of obstacles is represented as a set of obstacles,
representing the draft of the vessel.
As a preferred embodiment, the theoretically achievable range of the ship is as follows: the navigation range that the starting point can reach, the navigation range that the arrival point can pass, the initial point dodge the barrier and consider the initial state of boats and ships and give consideration to the initiative navigation range of boats and ships, the arrival point dodge the barrier and consider the final state of boats and ships and give consideration to the coincidence range of the initiative navigation range of boats and ships, wherein:
determining a range of travel reachable from the starting point includes: calculating a navigation range which can be reached by the ship from the starting moment according to the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the reaching point;
determining the range of travel that the arrival point can experience includes: reversely deducing the navigation range which can be passed by the ship from the arrival time according to the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the arrival point;
determining a starting point to avoid the barrier, considering the initial state of the ship and considering the active navigation range of the ship comprises the following steps: calculating the navigation range which can be experienced by the ship from the starting moment according to the distribution of static obstacles, the water depth of a navigation water area, the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the arrival point;
determining an arrival point to avoid a barrier and considering the final state of the ship and the active navigation range of the ship comprises the following steps: and reversely deducing the navigation range which can be passed by the ship from the arrival time according to the distribution of the static obstacles, the water depth of the navigation water area, the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the arrival point.
The above-described synthetic constrained spatio-temporal prism model is described below with reference to a specific embodiment.
First, a navigation environment without obstacles is defined asARIt means that the ship's sailing environment has a sufficient depth of water and does not have land, shoals, building areas, mariculture areas, etc. At this timeARCan be expressed as:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,Lndwhich represents the area of the land area,Marrepresents a representative of a marine farm,Obsis an obstacle to the movement of the vehicle,Buais a building area.
Track of shipTrCan be expressed as:
wherein, time
Information of treatment track
By latitude
Longitude, longitude
Speed, velocity
Course of the vehicle
And water depth.
At two successive pointsiAndjcomprehensively limit space-time prism area therebetween
Comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
indicating a time of day of
，
Which represents the latitude coordinate of the ship,
which represents the longitude coordinates of the vessel and,
which is indicative of the speed at which the vessel is cruising,
which represents the course of the ship,
indicating a location
The depth of the water at the place is,
which represents the theoretically achievable range of the ship,
a set of obstacles is represented as a set of obstacles,
representing the draft of the vessel.
Furthermore, the spatial-temporal prism region is synthetically limited
Should avoid and contact static obstacles
There is an intersection.
Theoretical reachable range of ship
Satisfies the following conditions:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
indicating the range of travel that is reachable from the determined starting point,
indicating the range of travel that the arrival point can experience,
the starting point avoiding barrier considers the initial state of the ship and gives consideration to the active sailing range of the ship,
the method shows that the arrival point avoids the barrier and considers the final state of the ship and the active navigation range of the ship.
In order to characterize the dynamic limiting characteristics of the ship, the embodiment of the application adds consideration to the steering time of the ship and the speed loss during the steering of the ship. Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
the ship course is from the initial course
Heading to
The shortest turn-around time of (c) is:
(ii) a The speed loss rate during steering is set to
The calculation formula of the actual cruising speed during steering is
. Speed of ship
To maximum speed of travel
The shortest acceleration time of
. Course slave course of ship
Heading to arrival point
Minimum time required
Make the ship course follow
To
Has a velocity loss rate of
The actual speed during steering is calculated by
. Speed of ship
To
Has a deceleration time of
。
Speed of ship
Is converted into
The time of (a) is: when in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
(ii) a When in use
When the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,
。
as a specific example, the range of travel that the starting point can reach
Indicating the time at which the vessel is moving from point i
Inner and outer speed of maximum sailing
Maximum acceleration
Maximum steering ratio
And forward space-time reachable areas under the ship draft limit and avoiding obstacles.
The following conditions are satisfied:
（1）
the water depth of any point in the water tank meets the draft requirement of the ship, namely:
（2）
any point in the above cannot pass through a static obstacle, namely:
(3) the ship has enough time to adjust the speed and the heading, namely:
on the basis of ensuring the three conditions, the method is divided into two conditions: the ship sails when accelerating to the maximum sailing speed and the ship sails when not accelerating to the maximum sailing speed.
When the ship accelerates to the maximum sailing speed for sailing, the ship is in
Time of any point in the spacetThe requirements are as follows:
when the ship sails at the non-accelerated maximum sailing speed (without enough time to finish the acceleration of the ship to the maximum sailing speed), the ship is in the state of
Time of any point in the spacetThe requirements are satisfied:
at this time, the navigation range reachable from the starting point is:
as a specific example, the range of travel that an arrival point may experience
Representing position at time according to vessel j point
Maximum sailing speed of internal reception
Maximum steering ratio
And maximum acceleration
And avoiding the rearward space-time reachable area of the barrier ship.
The following conditions are satisfied:
（1）
any point in the process needs to meet the draught requirement of the ship, namely:
（2）
any point in the above cannot pass through a static obstacle, namely:
(3) the ship has enough time to adjust the speed and the heading, namely:
similar to the calculation of the navigation range reachable by the starting point, on the basis of ensuring the three conditions, the method is divided into two conditions of navigation when the ship accelerates to the maximum navigation speed and navigation when the ship does not accelerate to the maximum navigation speed.
When the ship accelerates to the maximum sailing speed for sailing, the requirements are met
when the ship navigates at the maximum navigation speed without acceleration, the requirement is met
as a specific example, the starting point avoids the barrier and considers the initial state of the ship and the sailing range of the dynamic limit
，
Represents the inaccessible range of the solution starting point
The negative domain of (2). Initial out-of-reach
Refers to an obstacle or an area with a depth less than the draught of the ship or a shipiPosition begins at initial velocity
Course of the vehicle
Maximum acceleration
Maximum steering ratio
Maximum speed of the motor
Inaccessible area under the restriction.
The obstacles comprise static obstacles or dynamic obstacles with a depth less than the draught of the vessel, and thus
Any point in the process needs to meet the following requirements:
in addition to the above
And
the analysis of (2) is similar, and the two cases are divided according to the ship speed:
when in use
Then, the starting point is initially within the unreachable range:
when in use
Then, the starting point unreachable range is:
to the inaccessible range of the starting point
Taking a negative region to obtain a navigation range considering avoiding barriers from a starting point, an initial state of the ship and ship activity
。
As a specific example, the arrival point avoids the barrier and considers the ship terminal state and the ship active sailing range
Representing unreachable extents of solution-considered arrival point states
The negative domain of (2). Considering unreachable range of arrival point state
In areas with static obstacles or at depths less than the draught of the vessel or at speeds
Course of the vehicle
Maximum acceleration
Maximum steering ratio
Maximum speed of travel
Under the restrictionIs not reachable to point j.
when in use
In time, the range of the obstacle at the arrival point is as follows:
when in use
In time, the range of the obstacle at the arrival point is as follows:
for the unreachable range considering the state of the arrival point
Taking a negative region, obtaining a navigation range considering the state of an arrival point, avoiding obstacles and considering the ship motility
。
For any track point in the comprehensive limited time zone of the ship, the probability of the ship reaching the track point and the distance between the track point and the starting point form a certain linear relation. Therefore, the probability of the ship reaching the track point can be determined according to the distance between the track point and the starting point. As a preferred embodiment, in step S103, determining the arrival probability includes: through the weighting of the reverse distance, the arrival probability of the ship is determined and calculated, and specifically:
order to
Indicates a starting pointiAnd arrival pointjOn straight lines between pointstPoint of arrival of the vessel at timekPosition of (A) totTime of day is different from
The arrival probability of any point a of (a) is:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing the distance between a point a and a point k which can be reached by a barrier and an active coupling limit time t in the space-time prism;
indicating the probability of reaching point a at time t,
representing the sum of the probabilities of all the points that may be reached at time t within the synthetic bounding spatio-temporal prism region.
As a preferred embodiment, determining the collision risk domain of the own ship and the target ship according to the non-empty intersection of the comprehensive limit space-time prism regions of the own ship and the target ship.
As a specific embodiment, according to the comprehensive limit space-time prism model in the scheme, a multi-ship collision risk domain can be described. The collision risk domain of the ship can be quantitatively analyzed by comprehensively limiting the non-empty intersection of the space-time prism regions of the multiple ships. Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
for the encountering vessels p and q,
representing the synthetically limited spatio-temporal prismatic area of the ship p,
representing the synthetic bounding spatio-temporal prism region of the vessel q.
Representing the spatiotemporal overlap domain of the synthetic bounding spatiotemporal prism regions of the vessels p and q. The collision risk domain may be expressed as:
as shown in fig. 4, fig. 4 shows a process of determining a collision risk domain of the ship 1 and the ship 2.
Similarly, the collision risk domain for multiple ships can also be calculated by the non-empty intersection of the obstacles and the active coupling limit space-time prism, as shown in the following formula:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
indicating that there are multiple ships meetingThe space-time intersection of the comprehensive limited space-time prism region comprises the space-time intersection of the comprehensive limited space-time prism region of all ships meeting in the region AR in the time T.
And according to the collision risk domain of the ship, the size of the possible collision risk value of the ship can be further calculated through the conditional probability.
As a preferred embodiment, in step S104, obtaining a ship collision risk value of the own ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the own ship and the target ship includes:
determining the ship arrival probability of the ship to reach the collision risk domain and the target ship arrival probability of the target ship to reach the collision risk domain;
and obtaining the ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the ship arrival probability and the target ship arrival probability.
As a specific example, the ship collision risk value is calculated by the conditional probability that the ship and a plurality of target ships reach the collision danger area according to the following formula:
in order to verify the effect of the collision evaluation according to the method of the present invention, as a specific example, an experiment was performed using ship trajectory data of manports.
5(a) -5 (f) show the distribution of the total value of collision risks among all ships in month 6 of 2015 normalized at different time intervals; in fig. 5(a) to 5(f), the waters in which the ship is sailing are divided into regions (the regions divided into squares in the drawing), and the regions for evaluating the risk of a counterweight are labeled (the regions such as A, B, D, E … Z are labeled in the drawing); the collision risk is in the range of 0 to 1, white when the risk is 0, black when the risk is 1, and darker color represents higher risk. The time of day 0-24 is divided into 6 time periods on average, fig. 5(a) -5 (f) correspond to the normalized total risk values of the key risk areas in different time periods, and as can be seen from fig. 5(a) -5 (f), the total risk values of the key areas in different time periods are changed. Fig. 6(a) -6 (f) show the average risk value and standard deviation of the key risk area marked in fig. 5(a) -5 (f) in different time periods, and the space-time distribution of the collision risk of the ship can be visually shown through fig. 5(a) -5 (f) and 6(a) -6 (f), so that the method has high practicability.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that the method of the present application has the advantages that: firstly, the behavior characteristics of the ship and the navigation environment are considered, the calculation of the space-time accessibility of the ship can be supported, and the change process of the space-time accessibility of the ship can be visually displayed. Secondly, limiting a space-time prism according to barriers and active coupling of different ships, and calculating a space-time overlapping domain to further identify a collision risk domain. And finally, the calculation of the multi-ship collision risk region in the limited water area based on the comprehensive space-time limiting prism can support the calculation and multi-dimensional visualization of the multi-ship collision risk, and has great potential in the aspects of ship safety supervision and traffic supervision.
The present invention also provides a ship collision risk assessment apparatus, a structural block diagram of which is shown in fig. 7, wherein the ship collision risk assessment apparatus 700 includes:
the information acquisition module 701 is used for acquiring navigation data and navigation environment data of the ship and a target ship;
the region determination module 702 is configured to construct a comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on barriers and ship dynamic coupling limit, and obtain a comprehensive limit space-time prism region of the ship and a target ship according to the navigation data, the navigation environment data and the comprehensive limit space-time prism model of the ship and the target ship;
the parameter calculation module 703 is configured to limit a space-time prism region according to the synthesis of the ship and the target ship, and obtain an arrival probability and a collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship;
and the risk evaluation module 704 is used for obtaining a ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship.
The device can be used in a ship controller to quantitatively calculate the collision risk of the ship; the method can also be used in a ship navigation scene, determine a collision avoidance strategy of a ship and optimize a risk driving path; the method plays a good role in monitoring and managing water traffic in a limited water area and warning navigation risks. In addition, the method of the application also provides a good supporting effect for the research on intelligent ship collision avoidance and unmanned ships.
As shown in fig. 8, the present invention further provides an electronic device 800, which may be a mobile terminal, a desktop computer, a notebook, a palmtop computer, a server, or other computing devices. The electronic device includes a processor 801, a memory 802, and a display 803.
The memory 802 may be an internal storage unit of the computer device in some embodiments, such as a hard disk or a memory of the computer device. The memory 802 may also be an external storage device of the computer device in other embodiments, such as a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) Card, a Flash memory Card (Flash Card), etc. provided on the computer device. Further, the memory 802 may also include both internal and external storage units of the computer device. The memory 802 is used for storing application software installed in the computer device and various data, such as program codes for installing the computer device. The memory 802 may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output. In an embodiment, a ship collision risk assessment method program 804 is stored in the memory 802, and the ship collision risk assessment method program 804 can be executed by the processor 801, so as to implement a ship collision risk assessment method according to various embodiments of the present invention.
The processor 801 may be, in some embodiments, a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a microprocessor or other data Processing chip, and is configured to execute program codes stored in the memory 802 or process data, such as executing a ship collision risk assessment method program.
The display 803 may be an LED display, a liquid crystal display, a touch-sensitive liquid crystal display, an OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) touch panel, or the like in some embodiments. The display 803 is used to display information at the computer device and to display a visual user interface. The components 801 and 803 of the computer device communicate with each other via a system bus.
The present embodiment also provides a computer-readable storage medium, where the computer program instructions are stored, and when the computer program instructions are executed by a computer, the computer is caused to execute the ship collision risk assessment method according to any one of the above technical solutions.
According to the computer-readable storage medium and the computing device provided by the above embodiments of the present invention, the contents specifically described for implementing the above-mentioned ship collision risk assessment method according to the present invention can be referred to, and the method has similar beneficial effects to the above-mentioned ship collision risk assessment method, and will not be described again here.
The invention discloses a ship collision risk assessment method, a device, electronic equipment and a computer-readable storage medium.A navigation data and a navigation environment data of a ship and a target ship are obtained, a comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on barriers and ship active coupling limit is provided, and a comprehensive limit space-time prism area of the ship and the target ship is obtained; secondly, limiting a space-time prism region according to the synthesis of the ship and the target ship to obtain the arrival probability and the collision risk region of the ship and the target ship; and finally, obtaining the ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship.
The method of the invention describes the ship behavior of the limited water area by constructing the comprehensive limit space-time prism based on the barrier and the active coupling, visually displays the change of the ship risk area along with time and space, can perform comprehensive collision risk area analysis according to the motion characteristics of the ship, the actual navigation environment, the ship meeting situation, the water traffic rule and the like, can perform quantitative analysis on the collision risk of the ship by calculating the collision risk value, and provides better data support for the danger situation perception of the complex water area environment and the safety decision of the ship.
The above description is only for the preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present invention are included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A ship collision risk assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring navigation data and navigation environment data of the ship and a target ship;
constructing a comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on barrier and ship active coupling limit, and obtaining a comprehensive limit space-time prism region of the ship and a target ship according to the navigation data, navigation environment data and the comprehensive limit space-time prism model of the ship and the target ship;
according to the comprehensive limit space-time prism area of the ship and the target ship, obtaining the arrival probability and the collision risk area of the ship and the target ship;
and obtaining the ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship.
2. The ship collision risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the voyage data comprises: ship position, ship speed and ship course; the navigable environment data includes: water depth data and static obstacle distribution data.
3. The method for assessing the risk of collision of a ship according to claim 2, wherein the constructing of the comprehensive limit spatiotemporal prism model based on the barriers and the dynamic coupling limit of the ship comprises:
based on the distribution of static obstacles, the water depth of a sailing water area and the limits of the speed, the acceleration and the course change rate of the ship, a comprehensive limit space-time prism model of the ship is constructed, and the theoretical reachable range of the ship is determined:
wherein at time intervals
Comprehensively limit space-time prism area at any time
Comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
indicating a time of day of
，
Which represents the latitude coordinate of the ship,
which represents the longitude coordinates of the vessel and,
which is indicative of the speed at which the vessel is cruising,
which represents the course of the ship,
indicating a location
The depth of the water at the place is,
which represents the theoretically achievable range of the ship,
a set of obstacles is represented as a set of obstacles,
representing the draft of the vessel.
4. The method for assessing the risk of ship collision according to claim 3, wherein the theoretically reachable range of the ship is as follows: the navigation range that the starting point can reach, the navigation range that the arrival point can pass, the initial point dodge the barrier and consider the initial state of boats and ships and give consideration to the initiative navigation range of boats and ships, the arrival point dodge the barrier and consider the final state of boats and ships and give consideration to the coincidence range of the initiative navigation range of boats and ships, wherein:
determining a range of travel reachable from the starting point includes: calculating a navigation range which can be reached by the ship from the starting moment according to the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the reaching point;
determining the range of travel that the arrival point can experience includes: reversely deducing the navigation range which can be passed by the ship from the arrival time according to the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the arrival point;
determining a starting point to avoid a barrier, considering the initial state of the ship and considering the active navigation range of the ship, and comprising the following steps: calculating the navigation range which can be experienced by the ship from the starting moment according to the distribution of static obstacles, the water depth of a navigation water area, the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the arrival point;
determining an arrival point to avoid a barrier and considering the final state of the ship and the active navigation range of the ship comprises the following steps: and reversely deducing the navigation range which can be passed by the ship from the arrival time according to the distribution of the static obstacles, the water depth of the navigation water area, the maximum steering rate and the maximum acceleration of the ship and the time difference between the starting point and the arrival point.
5. The method of claim 3, wherein determining the probability of arrival comprises: through the weighting of the reverse distance, the arrival probability of the ship is determined and calculated, and specifically:
order to
Indicates a starting pointiAnd arrival pointjOn straight lines between pointstPoint of arrival of the vessel at timekPosition of (A) totTime of day is different from
The arrival probability of any point a of (a) is:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
representing the distance between a point a and a point k which can be reached by a barrier and an active coupling limit time t in the space-time prism;
indicating the probability of reaching point a at time t,
representing the sum of the probabilities of all the points that may be reached at time t within the synthetic bounding spatio-temporal prism region.
6. The method of claim 3, wherein determining the collision risk domain comprises: and determining the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship according to the non-empty intersection of the comprehensive limit space-time prism region of the ship and the target ship.
7. The method for evaluating collision risk of ship according to claim 3, wherein obtaining the ship collision risk value of the own ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the own ship and the target ship comprises:
determining the ship arrival probability of the ship to reach the collision risk domain and the target ship arrival probability of the target ship to reach the collision risk domain;
and obtaining the ship collision risk value of the ship and the target ship according to the ship arrival probability and the target ship arrival probability.
8. A ship collision risk assessment device, characterized by comprising:
the information acquisition module is used for acquiring navigation data and navigation environment data of the ship and the target ship;
the region determining module is used for constructing a comprehensive limit space-time prism model based on barriers and ship dynamic coupling limit, and obtaining a comprehensive limit space-time prism region of the ship and a target ship according to the navigation data, the navigation environment data and the comprehensive limit space-time prism model of the ship and the target ship;
the parameter calculation module is used for comprehensively limiting a space-time prism region according to the ship and the target ship to obtain the arrival probability and the collision risk region of the ship and the target ship;
and the risk evaluation module is used for obtaining ship collision risk values of the ship and the target ship according to the arrival probability and the collision risk domain of the ship and the target ship.
9. An electronic device comprising a processor and a memory, the memory having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by the processor, implements a vessel collision risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1-7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium storing computer program instructions which, when executed by a computer, cause the computer to perform the method of assessing risk of a collision of a vessel according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
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