CN114897396A - Method for evaluating safety guarantee capability of river and lake water system for communicating water - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of water communicated with a river and lake water system, which comprises the following steps: establishing a criterion for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the water communicated with the river and lake water system, wherein the criterion comprises three aspects of water resource safety guarantee capability, flood control safety guarantee capability and water ecological safety guarantee capability; respectively establishing different criterion characteristic layers and establishing an evaluation index system according to the actual conditions of the areas; and selecting a proper index according to the constructed index system for calculation, assigning according to an assigning table, calculating the water safety guarantee capability score of the river and lake water system in a certain area by applying an analytic hierarchy process, and further identifying the problem of insufficient water safety guarantee capability of the river and lake water system in the evaluation area. The method is simple and easy to implement, is suitable for the communication practice of the river and lake water systems, can evaluate the safety guarantee capability of the river and lake water system communication water, serves the ecological civilization construction, and promotes the high-quality development of regional economic society.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of river and lake water system communication, and particularly relates to a method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of river and lake water system communication water.
Background
The river and lake water system communication is used as an effective measure for optimizing strategic configuration of water resources, improving water disaster resistance and promoting water ecological civilization construction, and plays a significant role in water safety guarantee. The party and the country highly attach importance to the river, lake and water system communication work, issue a series of decisions and guidance opinions, vigorously push forward the river, lake and reservoir water system communication engineering construction, constantly optimize the water supply structure, comprehensively utilize surface water and underground water resources, optimize the water resource scheduling configuration, enhance the flood resisting capability and promote the water ecological protection and restoration. Meanwhile, the influence of river and lake water system communication on water safety guarantee is comprehensive, complex and uncertain, and scientific and reasonable river and lake water system communication engineering can effectively improve the water safety guarantee capability so as to benefit one side, otherwise, the water safety guarantee capability can be reduced. Therefore, the evaluation of the safety guarantee capability of the river and lake water system communication water in the region is very necessary for the establishment of a river and lake water system communication scheme. However, most of the existing standards and guidelines focus on one aspect of water safety, cannot reflect the multi-aspect influence of river and lake water system communication on water safety guarantee capability, and urgently awaits screening water safety guarantee capability indexes sensitive to the change of river and lake water system communication characteristics from multiple angles of 'water resource-water disaster-water ecology', constructing a river and lake water system communication water safety guarantee capability evaluation system, evaluating the river and lake water system communication water safety guarantee capability, serving ecological civilization construction, and promoting high-quality development of regional economy and society.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention provides a method for evaluating the water safety guarantee capability of a river and lake water system, which screens water safety guarantee capability indexes sensitive to the change of the communication characteristic of the river and lake water system from a water resource-water disaster-water ecology multi-angle mode, evaluates the water safety guarantee capability under the communication characteristic of the regional river and lake water system, and is more scientific and reasonable.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of water communicated with a river/lake water system comprises the following steps:
step 1: establishing a criterion for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the water communicated with the river and lake water system, wherein the criterion comprises the water resource safety guarantee capability, the flood control safety guarantee capability and the water ecological safety guarantee capability;
step 2: establishing a criterion layer according to the criterion in the step 1;
and step 3: constructing a river and lake water system water communication safety guarantee capability evaluation index system according to the criterion layer in the step 2;
and 4, step 4: selecting a proper index according to the index system constructed in the step 3 for calculation, assigning scores to the index, and then calculating the score of the water communication safety guarantee capability of the river and lake water system in a certain area;
and 5: and (4) comparing the water safety guarantee capability score obtained by calculation in the step (4) with a safety guarantee capability grade table of the water communicated with the regional river and lake water systems, calculating a safety guarantee capability score of the water communicated with the river and lake water systems, identifying the problems of water resource safety, flood control safety and water ecological safety existing in the region, and identifying the problem of the river and lake water system communication which causes the insufficient water safety guarantee capability of the evaluation region.
Further, the criterion layers in the step 2 comprise a water resource safety guarantee capability criterion layer, a flood control safety guarantee capability criterion layer and a water ecological safety guarantee capability criterion layer, wherein the water resource safety guarantee capability criterion layer respectively selects three criterion feature layers of water resource bearing capability, water resource allocation capability and water supply safety guarantee capability; the flood control safety guarantee capability respectively selects three criterion feature layers of a flood control scale, a waterlogging removal scale and a lake and reservoir regulation and control capability; the water ecological safety guarantee capability standard layer is respectively selected from three standard characteristic layers of habitat maintenance capability, water quality standard reaching degree and biological diversity maintenance capability.
Further, in step 3, the water resource bearing capacity is selected as the water resource development and utilization capacity C w As a recommendation index, selecting the rainfall flood resource utilization capacity F yh And underground water development utilization rate eta as an alternative index; selecting water resource allocation rate A for water resource allocation capacity μ Selecting the guarantee rate P of water level in dry season as a recommendation index sw And a representative station water level satisfaction rate P Z As an alternative index; selecting water supply safety factor P for water supply safety guarantee capability S Selecting strategic water source emergency guarantee rate K as a recommendation index W As an alternative indicator.
Further, the calculation formula of each index is as follows:
in the formula, C w Developing and utilizing capacity for water resources; w u M is the development and utilization amount of water resources 3 ；W r Is the total amount of water resource m 3 ；C 0 The utilization rate of water resources can be developed;
in the formula, F yh The capability of utilizing rain flood resources; w yh M is used for converting rainfall flood into usable water resource amount through river and lake water system communication engineering 3 ；W hs M is the total amount of rain and flood 3 ；
A μ ＝w 1 ×γ st +w 2 ×γ dr +w 3 ×γ lf (ii) a In the formula, A μ The water resource allocation rate; gamma ray st The water storage project allocation rate is obtained; gamma ray dr For river and lake water system communication engineering guideWater blending rate; gamma ray lf Water is extracted from a pump station and the rate is adjusted; w is a 1～3 The weights of the water storage project allocation rate, the river and lake water system communication project water diversion allocation rate and the pump station water lifting allocation rate are respectively in the value range of 0-1, and w is 1 +w 2 +w 3 ＝1；
In the formula, P S A safety coefficient for water supply; w A The sum of water supply capacity m of all water supply projects in the region 3 ；W N M is the average total water demand of the region in nearly five years 3 ；
Further, in step 3, the flood control scale selects the standard reaching rate F of the flood control system A As a recommendation index, selecting the standard-reaching rate R of the flood control embankment s As an alternative index; selecting standard-reaching rate R of drainage system according to waterlogging removal scale l Selecting standard-reaching rate K of reservoir drainage as a recommendation index c As an alternative index; lake and reservoir regulation and control capacity selection area flood retention capacity R f Selecting a key reservoir capacity siltation loss rate K as a recommendation index y As an alternative indicator.
Further, the calculation formula of each index is as follows:
Further, in step 3, the habitat maintenance capacity selects an ecological flow (water level) guarantee rate H F Selecting an amphibious cross-over belt area index H as a recommendation index A And the flow rate (water level) suitability degree H in the key life history period V As an alternative index; selecting the standard-reaching degree of water quality to represent the standard-reaching rate W of water quality of a section S Selecting the water quality standard-reaching rate W of the water functional area as a recommendation index Q Water body exchange rate W of rivers and lakes in harmony region E As an alternative index; selection of indicator species diversity B for biodiversity maintenance I As a recommendation index, selecting the biodiversity B of the main group M As an alternative indicator.
Further, the calculation formula of each index is as follows:
Further, in step 4, an analytic hierarchy process is adopted to calculate the water safety guarantee capability score of the river and lake water system in a certain area, wherein the analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
(1) constructing a judgment matrix: for the next level of an evaluation index, there are n indexes of the same level, a ij For the relative importance of the ith index to the jth index, the formed judgment matrix is:
(2) processing the judgment matrix: normalizing each column of the judgment matrix A, calculating a characteristic vector and a maximum characteristic value of the judgment matrix, calculating a random consistency ratio, and performing consistency test: b ═ B ij ) n×n ，
C＝(C 1 ,C 2 ,…,C n ) T ，
W＝(W 1 ,W 2 ,…,W n ) T ；
Wherein W is a matrix approximation eigenvector; lambda [ alpha ] max Is the maximum eigenvalue; AW i Is the ith component of AW; CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix; CI is a general consistency index of the judgment matrix; RI is obtained by table look-up; if CR is<0.1, the judgment matrix is judged to pass the consistency test; maximum eigenvalue λ max Each component of the corresponding feature vector W represents the relative weight of each index of the layer to the index of the previous layer.
(3) Calculating the weight of each level of indexes according to the process, multiplying the weights from bottom to top step by step to obtain the weight of each evaluation index relative to the total target, finally weighting each index step by step according to the weight of each index to comprehensively evaluate the target, and calculating according to the following formula:
in the formula, CI ws The safety guarantee capability score of the water communicated with the regional river and lake water system; w is a * 1 、w * 2 、w * 3 The weights of the capability of guaranteeing the water resource safety, the flood control safety and the water ecological safety are respectively set; w is a i,j Securing a weight of a jth aspect in the capabilities for the ith aspect; I.C. A i,j And scoring the jth analysis index of the ith aspect guarantee capability.
Further, in step 5, the regional river and lake water system water communication safety guarantee capability score CI ws The number of the particles is 0-100, and the particles are classified into the following three grades:
(1) adaptation: CI ws The water safety guarantee capability and the requirement of the regional river and lake water system are adapted when the water safety guarantee capability is more than 85;
(2) basic adaptation: CI of 60 < ws Less than or equal to 85, indicating that the river and lake water system in the region is connectedThe water safety guarantee capacity is basically matched with the requirement;
(3) not adapting: CI ws The water safety guarantee capacity and the requirement of regional river and lake water systems are not matched with each other.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: according to the method, the water safety guarantee capability index sensitive to the change of the river and lake water system communication characteristic is screened from multiple angles of water resource-water disaster-water ecology, the water safety guarantee capability under the regional river and lake water system communication characteristic is evaluated, the river and lake water system communication requirement is identified, and the judgment is more scientific and reasonable; the method is simple and easy to implement, is suitable for the communication practice of river and lake water systems, can evaluate the safety guarantee capability of the communication water of the river and lake water systems, can also be used for the comparative evaluation of the implementation scheme of the communication engineering of the river and lake water systems, serves the ecological civilized construction, promotes the high-quality development of regional economic society, and provides a foundation for the subsequent research and planning.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of evaluation index weight of safety guarantee capability of water communicated from a river, a lake and a water system in linyi city according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments may be combined with each other without conflict.
The present invention is further illustrated by the following examples, which are not to be construed as limiting the invention.
The invention discloses a method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of water communicated with a river/lake water system, which comprises the following steps:
step 1: establishing a criterion for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the water communicated with the river and lake water system, wherein the criterion comprises the water resource safety guarantee capability, the flood control safety guarantee capability and the water ecological safety guarantee capability;
step 2: establishing a criterion layer according to the criterion in the step 1; the standard layer comprises a water resource safety guarantee capability standard layer, a flood control safety guarantee capability standard layer and a water ecological safety guarantee capability standard layer, wherein the water resource safety guarantee capability standard layer respectively selects three standard characteristic layers of water resource bearing capability, water resource allocation capability and water supply safety guarantee capability; the flood control safety guarantee capability respectively selects three criterion feature layers of a flood control scale, a waterlogging removal scale and a lake and reservoir regulation and control capability; the water ecological safety guarantee capability standard layer respectively selects three standard characteristic layers of habitat maintenance capability, water quality standard reaching degree and biological diversity maintenance capability;
and step 3: constructing a river and lake water system water communication safety guarantee capability evaluation index system according to the criterion layer in the step 2; wherein, the water resource bearing capacity is selected from water resource development and utilization capacity C w As a recommendation index, selecting the rainfall flood resource utilization capacity F yh And underground water development utilization rate eta as an alternative index; selecting water resource allocation rate A for water resource allocation capacity μ As a recommendation index, selecting the guarantee rate P of the water level in dry seasons sw And a representative station water level satisfaction rate P Z As an alternative index; selecting water supply safety factor P for water supply safety guarantee capability S Selecting strategic water source emergency guarantee rate K as a recommendation index W As an alternative index; wherein, the calculation formula of each index is as follows:
In the formula, F yh The capability of utilizing rain flood resources; w yh For communicating through river and lake water systemsConverting rain flood into usable water resource (m) 3 )；W hs Is the total amount of rain flood (m) 3 )；
In the formula, eta is the underground water exploitation utilization rate; w d Volume of underground water (m) for district mining 3 )；W dt Total amount of groundwater (m) exploitable for a region 3 )；
A μ ＝w 1 ×γ st +w 2 ×γ dr +w 3 ×γ lf ；
In the formula, A μ The water resource allocation rate; gamma ray st The water storage project allocation rate is obtained; gamma ray dr The diversion rate of river and lake water system communication engineering is adjusted; gamma ray lf Water is extracted from a pump station and the rate is adjusted; w is a 1～3 The weight of the water storage project allocation rate, the river and lake water system communication project water diversion allocation rate and the pump station water lifting allocation rate is in the value range of 0-1, and w is 1 +w 2 +w 3 ＝1；
In the formula, gamma st The water storage project allocation rate is obtained; w st For water supply (m) of water storage engineering 3 )；W * st For the maximum water storage capacity (m) of the water storage engineering 3 )；
In the formula, gamma dr The diversion rate of river and lake water system communication engineering is adjusted; w dr Water supply (m) for river and lake water system communication engineering 3 )；W * dr Maximum diversion quantity (m) for river and lake water system communication engineering 3 )；
In the formula, gamma lf Water is extracted from a pump station and the rate is adjusted; w lf Water supply quantity (m) for pump station 3 )；W * lf For maximum water-lifting capacity (m) of pump station 3 )；
In the formula, P sw The water level guarantee rate in dry seasons; t is S The number of the time period when the water level reaches the minimum required water level in dry seasons; t is Z The total time period number is;
in the formula, P Z Representing the station water level satisfaction rate; t is M The number of time segments representing that the station water level reaches the water supply guarantee water level; t is Z The total time period number is; p S ＝W A /W N ；
In the formula, P S A safety coefficient for water supply; w A Sum of water supply capacities (m) for all water supply works of a region 3 )；W N The average total water demand (m) of the region in nearly five years 3 )；
In the formula, K W Emergency guarantee rate for strategic water source; t is E The strategic water source reserve can meet the years of water shortage; t is lac The total years of water shortage in the area. And the flood control scale selects the standard reaching rate F of the flood control system A As a recommendation index, selecting the standard-reaching rate R of the flood control embankment s As an alternative index; selecting standard-reaching rate R of drainage system according to waterlogging removal scale l Selecting standard-reaching rate K of reservoir drainage as a recommendation index c As an alternative index; lake and reservoir regulation and control capacity selection area flood retention capacity R f Selecting a key reservoir capacity siltation loss rate K as a recommendation index y As alternative indexes, the calculation formula of each index is as follows:
in the formula, F A The standard reaching rate of the flood control system is obtained; n is a radical of fs The number of flood control projects meeting expected standards in the region; n is a radical of f The total number of regional flood control projects;
in the formula, R s The standard reaching rate of the flood control dike is achieved; l is s The standard length (m) of the flood control dike is reached; l is tol The total length (m) of the flood protection dike;
in the formula, R l The standard reaching rate of the drainage system is obtained; m c For drainage of waterlogging 2 )；M y For planning the total area (m) of drainage 2 )；
In the formula, K c The standard reaching rate of reservoir drainage is obtained; m cl Standard area (m) for reservoir drainage 2 )；M yl Planning total drainage area (m) for reservoir 2 )；
In the formula, R f The flood retention capacity of the area; w p Is the total flood storage amount (m) 3 )；W f The total amount of water (m) coming for historical typical flood or corresponding frequency flood 3 )；
In the formula, K y The sedimentation loss rate is the key reservoir capacity; v los Loss of storage volume (m) for total fouling 3 ) (ii) a V is total storage capacity (m) of the built database 3 )。
In addition, the ecological flow (water level) guarantee rate H is selected as the habitat maintenance capacity F Selecting an amphibious cross-over belt area index H as a recommendation index A And the flow rate (water level) suitability degree H in the key life history period V As an alternative index; selecting the standard-reaching degree of water quality to represent the standard-reaching rate W of water quality of a section S Selecting the water quality standard-reaching rate W of the water functional area as a recommendation index Q Water body exchange rate W of rivers and lakes in harmony region E As an alternative index; selection of indicator species diversity B for biodiversity maintenance I As a recommendation index, selecting the biodiversity B of the main group M As an alternative index; wherein, the calculation formula of each index is as follows:
in the formula, H F The ecological flow (water level) guarantee rate is obtained; d F The number of sections (water bodies) for meeting the ecological flow (water level); d E To evaluate the total number of the sections (water bodies);
in the formula, H V The flow rate (water level) suitability degree in the key life history period; n is a radical of O The number of the sections of the river and lake flow velocity (water level) reaching the standard; n is a radical of E The total number of the cross sections of the rivers and the lakes participating in evaluation;
And 4, step 4: selecting a proper index according to the index system constructed in the step 3 for calculation, assigning according to an assigning table, and calculating the water safety guarantee capability score of the river and lake water system in a certain area by applying an analytic hierarchy process;
in this step, each index is assigned as shown in the following table:
TABLE 1 index assignment table
The adopted analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
(1) constructing a judgment matrix: for a certain evaluation indexThe next level of (A) has n indexes of the same level, a ij The relative importance of the ith index to the jth index is determined by a 9-scale method based on expert opinion. The formed judgment matrix is as follows:
(2) processing the judgment matrix: normalizing each column of the judgment matrix A, calculating a characteristic vector and a maximum characteristic value of the judgment matrix, calculating a random consistency ratio, and performing consistency test: b ═ B ij ) n×n ，
C＝(C 1 ,C 2 ,…,C n ) T ，
W＝(W 1 ,W 2 ,…,W n ) T ；
Wherein W is a matrix approximation eigenvector; lambda [ alpha ] max Is the maximum eigenvalue; AW i Is the ith component of AW; CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix; CI is a general consistency index of the judgment matrix; RI is obtained by table look-up (see Table 2); if CR is<0.1, the judgment matrix is judged to pass the consistency test; maximum eigenvalue λ max The corresponding components of the feature vector W represent the fingers of the layerAnd marking the relative weight of the indexes of the upper level.
TABLE 2 analytic hierarchy process consistency RI Table
| n | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| RI | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.90 | 1.12 | 1.24 | 1.32 | 1.41 | 1.45 |
| n | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||
| RI | 1.49 | 1.51 | 1.48 | 1.56 | 1.57 | 1.59 |
(3) Calculating the weight of each level of indexes according to the process, multiplying the weights from bottom to top step by step to obtain the weight of each evaluation index relative to the total target, and finally weighting each index step by step according to the weight of each index to comprehensively evaluate the target, wherein the weight is calculated according to the following formula:
in the formula, CI ws The safety guarantee capability score of the water communicated with the regional river and lake water system; w is a * 1 、w * 2 、w * 3 Are respectively provided withThe weight of the capability of guaranteeing the water resource safety, the flood control safety and the water ecological safety; w is a i,j Securing a weight of a jth aspect in the capabilities for the ith aspect; i is i,j And scoring the jth analysis index of the ith aspect guarantee capability.
And 5: comparing the water safety guarantee capability score obtained by calculation in the step 4 with a regional river and lake water system communication water safety guarantee capability grade table, calculating a river and lake water system communication water safety guarantee capability score, identifying the problems of water resource safety, flood control safety and water ecological safety existing in the region, and identifying the problem of river and lake water system communication which causes the insufficient water safety guarantee capability of the evaluation region;
in the step, the regional river and lake water system water communication safety guarantee capability score (CI) ws ) Is 0 to 100, and can be divided into the following three grades:
(1) adaptation: CI ws The water safety guarantee capability and the requirement of the regional river and lake water system are adapted when the water safety guarantee capability is more than 85;
(2) basic adaptation: CI of 60 < ws Less than or equal to 85, which indicates that the safety guarantee capability and the requirement of the water communication of the regional river and lake water systems are basically adapted;
(3) not adapting: CI ws The water safety guarantee capacity and the requirement of regional river and lake water systems are not matched with each other.
The safety guarantee capability of the water system of the river and lake in Linyi city is selected as an evaluation example, and the implementation steps are as follows:
as shown in FIG. 1, the criteria for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the water communicated with the river and lake water system comprise three aspects of water resource safety guarantee capability, flood control safety guarantee capability and water ecological safety guarantee capability. Selecting underground water development utilization rate eta and water resource allocation rate A according to the evaluation index system μ Water supply safety coefficient P S The evaluation indexes are respectively used as the evaluation indexes of three criterion feature layers of water resource bearing capacity, water resource allocation capacity and water supply safety guarantee capacity; selecting the standard reaching rate R of the flood control dike s Standard reaching rate R of drainage system l Regional flood retention capacity R f The evaluation indexes of three criterion feature layers of flood control scale, flood control scale and lake and reservoir regulation and control ability are used; selecting ecological flow (water level)) Rate of guarantee H F Water quality standard-reaching rate W of water functional area Q Major group biodiversity B M As the evaluation indexes of three criteria characteristic layers of habitat maintenance ability, water quality standard reaching degree and biological diversity maintenance ability;
(1) capability of ensuring safety of water resource
Underground water exploitation utilization rate eta
In the formula, eta is the underground water exploitation utilization rate; w d Volume of underground water (m) for district mining 3 )；W dt Total amount of groundwater (m) exploitable for a region 3 ). According to the investigation and evaluation of Linyi city water resources, the underground water resource amount is 19.25 hundred million m 3 (ii) a According to the rain flood resource utilization plan in Linyi City, the underground water mining capacity in Linyi City can reach 5.22 hundred million m 3 . The utilization rate of the ground water resource in the near-to city can be calculated to be 27.1% according to a formula, and the score is 95 according to an assignment table. ② water resource allocation rate A μ
A μ ＝w 1 ×γ st +w 2 ×γ dr +w 3 ×γ lf ；
In the formula, A μ The water resource allocation rate; gamma ray st The water storage project allocation rate is obtained; gamma ray dr The diversion rate of river and lake water system communication engineering is adjusted; gamma ray lf Water is extracted from a pump station and the rate is adjusted; w is a 1～3 The weight of the water storage project allocation rate, the river and lake water system communication project water diversion allocation rate and the pump station water lifting allocation rate is in the value range of 0-1, and w is 1 +w 2 +w 3 ＝1；
In the formula, gamma st The water storage project allocation rate is obtained; w st For water supply (m) of water storage engineering 3 )；W * st Can store the maximum water energy for water storage engineeringForce (m) 3 )；
In the formula, gamma dr The water diversion rate of river and lake water system communication engineering is adjusted; w dr Water supply (m) for river and lake water system communication engineering 3 )；W * dr Maximum diversion quantity (m) for river and lake water system communication engineering 3 )；
In the formula, gamma lf Water is extracted from a pump station and the rate is adjusted; w lf Water supply quantity (m) for pump station 3 )；W * lf For the maximum water-lifting capacity (m) of the pump station 3 ). The water resource allocation rate is the weighted average of the allocation rate of the water storage project, the water pumping allocation rate of the pump station and the diversion allocation rate of the river and lake water system communication project, is a comprehensive index and reflects the capacity of allocating water resources in the passing region. According to the general safety guarantee plan for Linyi city water, the storage, promotion and diversion engineering conditions in Linyi city are as follows: 901 large, medium and small-sized reservoirs are co-constructed in the whole city, wherein 7 large reservoirs, 31 medium-sized reservoirs and 863 small reservoirs are arranged, and the total storage capacity of the reservoirs reaches 34.45 hundred million m 3 The design of the invented product can reach 19.79 hundred million m 3 . 177.9 thousands of underground water taking wells are built in the whole city, wherein the daily water taking amount is 20m 3 The electromechanical well is 2.29 ten thousand holes. The current production well has the underground water exploitation capacity of 5.22 hundred million meters 3 . Maximum water flow regulating quantity of 5.0m designed for communicating engineering from river to small Yihe 3 The annual water regulation amount is 2000 km 3 (ii) a Yihe gulf reservoir to river communicating engineering design water regulation flow rate of 10m 3 Water regulation scale 86 km/s 3 The engineering design water supply scale of the water supply network around the city in the near-Yili main city area is 30 ten thousand meters 3 The total water supply scale of the combined water supply project from Tangcun-Changli-many cliff reservoir to Linyi city is 35 ten thousand meters 3 The total water supply scale of the combined water supply project from the trekking mountain, the sand ditch reservoir to the Linyi city is 34 ten thousand meters 3 D, total annual water transfer capacity of 6.95 hundred million m 3 See table 3. TABLE 3 design scale of storage, lifting and diversion works in Linyi city
| Interest-making storage capacity (hundred million m) for water storage engineering 3 ) | Annual water intake capacity (hundred million m) of water lift engineering 3 ) | Water diversion capacity of water diversion engineering (hundred million m) 3 ) |
| 19.79 | 5.22 | 6.95 |
According to the 2013-2018 near-to city water resource communique (water resource), the water supply amount of the water storage, extraction and diversion projects is as follows: the average water storage engineering water supply of the whole market for years is 6.24 hundred million m 3 Average water supply of 1.57 hundred million m in water lift engineering for many years 3 And the average water supply amount of water diversion engineering for many years is 4.5 hundred million m 3 See table 4.
TABLE 4 Water supply situation for storage, lifting and diversion works in Linyi city
| Water supply quantity (hundred million m) for water storage engineering 3 ) | Water supply quantity (hundred million m) for water lift engineering 3 ) | Water supply quantity (hundred million m) for water diversion engineering 3 ) |
| 6.24 | 1.57 | 4.5 |
In conclusion, through calculation, the results of the water storage project allocation rate, the pump station water lifting allocation rate and the diversion allocation rate of the river and lake water system communication project in the near-Yili city are as follows: the blending rate of the water storage project is 31.5%, the blending rate of pump station water lifting is 30.1%, and the blending rate of water diversion of the water system communication project is 64.7%, see table 5.
TABLE 5 results of calculation of allocation rates of storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi city
| Blending ratio of water storage engineering (%) | Pump station water lifting allocation rate (%) | Diversion allocation rate (%) |
| 31.5 | 30.1 | 64.7 |
According to the practical situation of the near-Ying city, the water storage project allocation rate, the pump station water pumping allocation rate and the water diversion allocation rate weight of the water system communication project can be determined to be 0.321, 0.345 and 0.334 respectively, finally, the near-Ying city water resource allocation rate is calculated according to formula weighting and is 42.1%, and the score is 17 according to a scoring table.
Water supply safety coefficient P S
P S ＝W A /W N ；
In the formula, P S A safety coefficient for water supply; w A Sum of water supply capacities (m) for all water supply works of a region 3 )；W N The average total water demand (m) of the region in nearly five years 3 ). In this example, according to "Linyi City rain flood resource utilization planning", the total water demand of Linyi City current situation in horizontal year is 17.02 hundred million m 3 . According to the 2013-2018 near-Yili city water resource bulletin (water resource), the total water supply of 18.40 hundred million m in the horizontal year under the current situation of near-Yili city is obtained through statistics 3 Therefore, the average water supply capacity of the Linyi city at the present status for many years is considered to be 18.40 hundred million m 3 . The water supply safety coefficient is 1.08 by calculation according to a formula, and the score is 58 according to an assigning table.
The weight analysis result of the water resource safety guarantee capability index is as follows:
TABLE 6 results of calculation of allocation rates of storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi city
Note: consistency ratio CR: 0.016
(2) Flood control safety guarantee capability
First, the standard reaching rate R of flood control dyke s
In the formula, R s The standard reaching rate of the flood control dike is achieved; l is s The standard length (m) of the flood control dike is reached; l is tol The total length (m) of the flood-protection dike. According to data of 2016 annual flood control and waterlogging removal statistics summary table published by the Water conservancy bureau in near-Yi city, the standard reaching length of a flood control embankment in near-Yi city is 1281.33km, and the total length of the flood control and defense is 1625.81 km. The standard reaching rate of the flood control dike is calculated by a formula and is 78.8 percent, and the score is 59 according to a scoring table. ② waterlogging drainage system standard-reaching rate R l
In the formula, R l The standard reaching rate of the drainage system is obtained; m c For drainage of waterlogging 2 )；M y For planning the total area (m) of drainage 2 ). According to the data of 2016 annual flood control and waterlogging removal statistics summary table published by the Water conservancy office in the near-Yi city as the calculation basis: the total area of regional waterlogging removal is 216.42 kilo hectares, wherein the waterlogging removal area which reaches the standard of one meeting in 5 years is 171.11 kilo hectares, the standard reaching rate of a waterlogging removal system is 79.1 percent calculated according to a formula, and the score is 59 according to an assignment table.
③ flood holding capacity R f
In the formula, R f The flood retention capacity of the area; w p Is the total flood storage amount (m) 3 )；W f The total amount of water (m) coming for historical typical flood or corresponding frequency flood 3 ). 901 seats of large, medium and small reservoirs are co-constructed in Linyi city, wherein 7 seats of large reservoirs, 31 seats of medium reservoirs and 863 seats of small reservoirs are provided, and the total storage capacity of the reservoirs reaches 34.45 hundred million m 3 . Furthermore, according to the calculation result of flood designed by Yishu Siheu main control station, the flood volume of 42.54 hundred million m in 50 years at the Yishu station 3 The flood capacity of the available region is calculated to be 76.3% according to a formula, and the score is 43 according to a score table.
The weight analysis result of the flood control safety guarantee capability index is as follows:
TABLE 7 calculation results of allocation rates of storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi city
Note: consistency ratio CR: 0.046
(3) Water ecological safety guarantee capability
Ecological water level guarantee rate H F
In the formula, H F Is ecological water levelThe guarantee rate; d F The number of water bodies meeting the ecological water level; d E To evaluate the total number of water bodies. According to the statistics of hydrological stations in near-Yili city, the average water levels of the upper-level lakes are all larger than 33.0m, the water levels of the summer lakes are all larger than 31m, the ecological water level guarantee rate is calculated according to a formula to be 100%, and the score is 100 according to an assigning table.
② water quality standard-reaching rate W of water functional area Q
In the formula, W Q The water quality standard-reaching rate of the water functional area is obtained; f O The number of the water functional areas reaching the standard is the number of the water functional areas reaching the standard; f E Is the total number of the water functional areas. The number of the water quality evaluation in the near-Yiyu water functional area is 101, wherein the number of the water functional areas with the water quality reaching the standard is 49, the water quality reaching rate of the water functional areas is 48.5 percent according to the formula, and the score is 48.5 according to the assignment table.
③ biodiversity of the major groups B M
In the formula, B M Species diversity for the main group; n is the total number of the groups; y is i The number of the species of the ith class group in the region; JY i The number of objects in the ith group of the reference system in the region. Selecting migratory fishes as a main species group in the near-Yi city, wherein 9 migratory fishes are selected according to related surveys in historical periods, 6 migratory fishes are selected according to a recent survey result, the diversity of the main species group is 66.7 percent according to the formula, and the score is 66.7 according to an assignment table.
The weight analysis result of the water ecological safety guarantee capability index is as follows:
TABLE 8 results of calculation of allocation rates of storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi city
Note: consistency ratio CR: 0.046
The weight analysis result of the river and lake water system water safety guarantee capability evaluation criterion layer is as follows:
TABLE 9 calculation results of allocation rates of storage, lifting and diversion projects in Linyi city
Note: consistency ratio CR: 0.016
Calculating the weight of each level of index according to the process, multiplying the weights from bottom to top step by step to obtain the weight of each evaluation index relative to the total target, calculating the weights of the indexes step by step according to the weights of the indexes, obtaining the near-Yili city water resource safety guarantee capacity of 67.4, the flood control safety guarantee capacity of 52.4 and the water ecological safety guarantee capacity of 61.5, and finally calculating to obtain the near-Yili city river and lake water system communication water safety guarantee capacity score CI ws 61.5, the safety guarantee capability of the river and lake water system communication water in Linyi city can be obtained according to the grading standard and basically adapted to the requirement, and the safety guarantee capability of the water in the region needs to be improved by planning the river and lake water system communication engineering.
While the invention has been described with reference to a preferred embodiment, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and detail may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of water communicated with a river/lake water system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: establishing a criterion for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the water communicated with the river and lake water system, wherein the criterion comprises the water resource safety guarantee capability, the flood control safety guarantee capability and the water ecological safety guarantee capability;
and 2, step: establishing a criterion layer according to the criterion in the step 1;
and step 3: constructing a river and lake water system water communication safety guarantee capability evaluation index system according to the criterion layer in the step 2;
and 4, step 4: selecting a proper index according to the index system constructed in the step 3 for calculation, assigning a score to the index, and calculating the water communication safety guarantee capability score of the river and lake water system in a certain area;
and 5: and (4) comparing the water safety guarantee capability score obtained by calculation in the step (4) with a safety guarantee capability grade table of the water communicated with the regional river and lake water systems, calculating a safety guarantee capability score of the water communicated with the river and lake water systems, identifying the problems of water resource safety, flood control safety and water ecological safety existing in the region, and identifying the problem of the river and lake water system communication which causes the insufficient water safety guarantee capability of the evaluation region.
2. The method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of water communicated with a river, lake and water system according to claim 1, wherein the criterion layer in the step 2 comprises a water resource safety guarantee capability criterion layer, a flood control safety guarantee capability criterion layer and a water ecological safety guarantee capability criterion layer, wherein the water resource safety guarantee capability criterion layer respectively selects three criterion feature layers of water resource bearing capability, water resource allocation capability and water supply safety guarantee capability; the flood control safety guarantee capability respectively selects three criterion feature layers of a flood control scale, a waterlogging removal scale and a lake and reservoir regulation and control capability; the water ecological safety guarantee capability standard layer is respectively selected from three standard characteristic layers of habitat maintenance capability, water quality standard reaching degree and biological diversity maintenance capability.
3. The method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the water communicated with the river and lake water system according to claim 2, wherein in the step 3, the water resource bearing capability is selected from water resource development and utilization capability C w As a recommendation index, selecting the rainfall flood resource utilization capacity F yh And underground water development utilization rate eta as an alternative index; selecting water resource allocation rate A for water resource allocation capacity μ Selecting the guarantee rate P of water level in dry season as a recommendation index sw And a representative station water level satisfaction rate P Z As an alternative index; water supply safety guarantee capability selectionWater supply safety factor P S Selecting strategic water source emergency guarantee rate K as a recommendation index W As an alternative indicator.
4. The method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the river and lake water system for communicating water according to claim 3, wherein the calculation formulas of the indexes are respectively as follows:
A μ ＝w 1 ×γ st +w 2 ×γ dr +w 3 ×γ lf (ii) a In the formula, A μ The water resource allocation rate; gamma ray st The water storage project allocation rate is obtained; gamma ray dr The diversion rate of river and lake water system communication engineering is adjusted; gamma ray lf Water is extracted from a pump station and the rate is adjusted; w is a 1～3 The weights of the water storage project allocation rate, the river and lake water system communication project water diversion allocation rate and the pump station water lifting allocation rate are respectively in the value range of 0-1, and w is 1 +w 2 +w 3 ＝1；
P S ＝W A /W N ；
in the formula, P S A safety coefficient for water supply; w A Supplying water energy for all water supply projects of regionsSum of forces, m 3 ；W N M is the average total water demand of the region in nearly five years 3 ；
5. The method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the water communicated with the river, lake and water system according to claim 2, wherein in the step 3, the flood control achievement scale is used for selecting the flood control system achievement rate F A As a recommendation index, selecting the standard-reaching rate R of the flood control embankment s As an alternative index; selecting standard-reaching rate R of drainage system according to waterlogging removal scale l Selecting standard-reaching rate K of reservoir drainage as a recommendation index c As an alternative index; lake and reservoir regulation and control capacity selection area flood retention capacity R f Selecting a key reservoir capacity siltation loss rate K as a recommendation index y As an alternative indicator.
6. The method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the river and lake water system for communicating water according to claim 5, wherein the calculation formulas of the indexes are respectively as follows:
7. The method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the water communicated with the river and lake water system as claimed in claim 2, wherein in the step 3, the habitat maintenance capability is selected from ecological flow (water level) guarantee rate H F Selecting an amphibious cross-over belt area index H as a recommendation index A And the flow rate (water level) suitability degree H in the key life history period V As an alternative index; selecting the standard-reaching degree of water quality to represent the standard-reaching rate W of water quality of a section S Selecting the water quality standard-reaching rate W of the water functional area as a recommendation index Q Water body exchange rate W of rivers and lakes in harmony region E As an alternative index; selection of indicator species for biodiversity maintenanceDiversity B I As a recommendation index, selecting the biodiversity B of the main group M As an alternative indicator.
8. The method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the river, lake and water system communication water according to claim 7, wherein the calculation formulas of the indexes are respectively as follows:
9. The method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the river and lake water system for communicating water according to claim 1, wherein in step 4, an analytic hierarchy process is used to calculate the safety guarantee capability score of the river and lake water system for a certain area, wherein the analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
(1) constructing a judgment matrix: for the next level of an evaluation index, there are n indexes of the same level, a ij For the relative importance of the ith index to the jth index, the formed judgment matrix is:
(2) processing the judgment matrix: normalizing each column of the judgment matrix A, calculating the eigenvector and the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix,and calculating a random consistency ratio for consistency check: b ═ B ij ) n×n ，
C＝(C 1 ,C 2 ,…,C n ) T ，
W＝(W 1 ,W 2 ,…,W n ) T ；
Wherein W is a matrix approximation eigenvector; lambda [ alpha ] max Is the maximum eigenvalue; AW i Is the ith component of AW; CR is the random consistency ratio of the judgment matrix; CI is a general consistency index of the judgment matrix; RI is obtained by table look-up; if CR is<0.1, the judgment matrix is judged to pass the consistency test; maximum eigenvalue λ max Each component of the corresponding feature vector W represents the relative weight of each index of the layer to the index of the previous layer;
(3) calculating the weight of each level of indexes according to the process, multiplying the weights from bottom to top step by step to obtain the weight of each evaluation index relative to the total target, finally weighting each index step by step according to the weight of each index to comprehensively evaluate the target, and calculating according to the following formula:
in the formula, CI ws The safety guarantee capability score of the water communicated with the regional river and lake water system; w is a * 1 、w * 2 、w * 3 The weights of the capability of guaranteeing the water resource safety, the flood control safety and the water ecological safety are respectively set; w is a i,j Securing a weight of a jth aspect in the capabilities for the ith aspect; i is i,j And scoring the jth analysis index of the ith aspect guarantee capability.
10. The method for evaluating the safety guarantee capability of the water communication between the river and the lake water system as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step 5, the score CI for the safety guarantee capability of the water communication between the regional river and the lake water system is given ws The number of the particles is 0-100, and the particles are classified into the following three grades:
(1) adaptation: CI ws The water safety guarantee capability and the requirement of the regional river and lake water system are adapted when the water safety guarantee capability is more than 85;
(2) basic adaptation: CI of 60 < ws Less than or equal to 85, which indicates that the safety guarantee capability and the requirement of the water communication of the regional river and lake water systems are basically adapted;
(3) not adapting: CI ws The water safety guarantee capacity and the requirement of regional river and lake water systems are not matched with each other.
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