CN114862287B - Risk benefit analysis method, system, terminal and medium for cascade power station group scheduling - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a risk benefit analysis method, a system, a terminal and a medium for dispatching a cascade power station group, relating to the technical field of power system dispatching, and the key points of the technical scheme are as follows: determining the risk category of the target power station, and determining the total weight coefficient of the risk term and the benefit term; ranking the importance degree of the risk indexes and the benefit indexes, and respectively distributing weight coefficients for each index of the risk items and the benefit items from the corresponding total weight coefficients by combining an analytic hierarchy process and the importance degree ranking; respectively obtaining a risk item comprehensive score and a benefit item comprehensive score, and summing to obtain a total dispatching comprehensive score of the target power station; and performing weighted average calculation according to the annual output of each target power station to obtain a comprehensive evaluation result of the cascade power station group dispatching. According to the invention, when the cascade power station group is constructed, the importance degree among power stations is considered, the comprehensive risk benefit evaluation of the cascade power station group is finally obtained, and strong support can be effectively provided for the scheduling history evaluation and scheduling strategy optimization of the cascade power station group.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power system scheduling, in particular to a risk benefit analysis method, a risk benefit analysis system, a risk benefit analysis terminal and a risk benefit analysis medium for cascade power station group scheduling.
Background
The short-term cascade power station group dispatching is that upstream and downstream hydropower stations which are mutually associated in a flow field coordinate and cooperate with each other to achieve the dispatching action of power supply in the most economical production mode; the short-term cascaded power station scheduling needs to be accurate to a scheduling strategy in a short time, for example, in a single day, the micro environment in a decision period and the micro relation between an upstream power station and a downstream power station need to be fully considered, and some influence factors are ignored or simplified, so that the scheduling strategy is not efficient or has overlarge risk. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the quality of the short-term scheduling with relatively great difficulty in scheduling so as to provide decision support for the late improvement policy.
Currently, there is relatively little systematic research on the cascaded substation group scheduling strategy, mainly based on an evaluation formed by a power station scheduling optimization objective. In the prior art, an optimization algorithm is used for optimizing the power generation potential under the same external condition, and then the actual power generation amount is compared to measure the quality of an actual scheduling strategy; however, the scheduling evaluation range is single, and the scheduling evaluation range is based on a specific service scenario, and the specific service scenario often needs to schedule and complete a single scheduling task, so that the rating system is often defined around the single target, and the risk for achieving the target is ignored. In addition, a method for evaluating and analyzing multi-target scheduling of the cascade power station is also provided; however, scheduling evaluation of the cascade power station group as a whole is lacked, in practice, the cascade power station group composed of single power stations has individual characteristics of the single power stations, and can be approximately regarded as a virtual power station, and how to construct scheduling evaluation analysis of the cascade power station group is also a problem to be solved in actual work.
Therefore, how to design a risk benefit analysis method, system, terminal and medium for dispatching a cascade power station group, which can overcome the above-mentioned defects, is a problem that we are in urgent need to solve at present.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the defects in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a risk benefit analysis method, a system, a terminal and a medium for dispatching a cascade power station group, and can effectively provide strong support for historical evaluation of dispatching and optimization of a dispatching strategy of the cascade power station group in practice.
The technical purpose of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
in a first aspect, a risk benefit analysis method for cascaded station group scheduling is provided, which includes the following steps:
acquiring current scheduling information and power station state information of a target power station;
calculating an index value of the current scheduling information according to the risk index and the benefit index, and obtaining a corresponding risk index value and a corresponding benefit index value after index normalization processing;
after the power station state information is input into a pre-constructed risk identification model, determining the risk category of a target power station, and determining the total weight coefficient of a risk item and a benefit item according to the risk category;
respectively sorting the importance degrees of the risk indexes and the benefit indexes according to the risk categories, and respectively distributing weight coefficients for each index of the risk items and the benefit items from the corresponding total weight coefficients by combining an analytic hierarchy process and the importance degree sorting;
carrying out weight calculation according to the risk index value, the benefit index value and the corresponding weight coefficient to respectively obtain a risk item comprehensive score and a benefit item comprehensive score, and summing to obtain a total dispatching comprehensive score of the target power station;
and (4) iteratively calculating the total dispatching comprehensive score of each target power station in the cascade power station group, and performing weighted average calculation according to the annual output of each target power station to obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of the cascade power station group dispatching.
Further, the benefit indexes comprise four indexes of generating capacity, water abandoning loss load, water consumption loss load and whether water abandoning is performed.
Further, the formula for calculating the risk index value of the generated energy is specifically as follows:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
a benefit index value representing the amount of electricity generation;
representing the actual output;
representing a planned output;
a minimum value indicating an allowable range of the deviation;
the maximum value of the deviation allowable range is represented;
the formula for calculating the risk index value of the abandoned water loss load is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the benefit index value represents the water abandoning loss load;
representing the maximum output of the power station;
representing the reject flow of the power station;
the output force generated by the unit generating flow of the power station under the condition of the same actual water head is represented;
the calculation formula of the risk index value of the water consumption loss load is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a benefit index value representing a water consumption loss load;
the optimal water head which can be achieved under the conditions of meeting the safety constraint and realizing the same requirement with the actual output is shown;
indicating a given time
The average value of the corresponding benefit index value of the generated energy;
representing the actual average generated flow; function(s)
Representing the functional relationship of output, head and generated flow in the theoretical NHQ table.
Further, the risk indicators are specifically:
selecting dam front water level information and ex-warehouse flow information from the current scheduling information;
and establishing four indexes of a safe water level space, a safe flow space, whether the water level exceeds the limit or not and whether the flow exceeds the limit or not according to the water level information before the dam and the flow information out of the reservoir.
Further, the formula for calculating the risk index value of whether the flow exceeds the limit specifically includes:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a risk indicator value representing whether the flow is overrun;
representing warehouse-out flowsAmount information;
representing the maximum outbound traffic;
the formula for calculating the risk index value of the safe flow space specifically comprises:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a risk indicator value representing a safe traffic space;
representing a minimum outbound flow;
the formula for calculating the risk index value of whether the water level exceeds the limit specifically comprises:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a risk index value indicating whether the water level is overrun;
representing dam front water level information;
representing the maximum dam front water level;
the risk index value calculation formula of the safe water level space is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a risk index value representing a safe water level space;
indicating the minimum dam water level.
Further, the risk identification model is obtained by acquiring historical water level and ex-warehouse flow information in the same month of the target power station.
Further, the risk categories are divided into at least six categories according to the association relationship between the risk items and the benefit items: most biased risk management, more biased risk management, risk benefit equivalence, biased benefit, and more biased benefit.
In a second aspect, a risk benefit analysis system for cascaded power station group scheduling is provided, including:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring current scheduling information and power station state information of the target power station;
the index calculation module is used for calculating the index value of the current scheduling information according to the risk index and the benefit index, and obtaining the corresponding risk index value and the corresponding benefit index value after index normalization processing;
the risk identification module is used for inputting the power station state information into a pre-constructed risk identification model, then determining the risk category of the target power station, and determining the total weight coefficient of the risk item and the benefit item according to the risk category;
the weight distribution module is used for respectively sorting the importance degrees of the risk indexes and the benefit indexes according to the risk categories, and distributing weight coefficients for the indexes of the risk items and the benefit items from the corresponding total weight coefficients by combining the analytic hierarchy process and the importance degree sorting;
the evaluation analysis module is used for carrying out weight calculation according to the risk index value, the benefit index value and the corresponding weight coefficient to respectively obtain a risk item comprehensive score and a benefit item comprehensive score, and summing to obtain a total scheduling comprehensive score of the target power station;
and the iterative updating module is used for iteratively calculating the total dispatching comprehensive score of each target power station in the cascade power station group, and carrying out weighted average calculation according to the annual output of each target power station to obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of the cascade power station group dispatching.
In a third aspect, a computer terminal is provided, which includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and when the processor executes the program, the method for risk benefit analysis of cascaded substation group scheduling according to any one of the first aspect is implemented.
In a fourth aspect, a computer readable medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored, the computer program being executed by a processor to implement the risk benefit analysis method for cascaded power station group scheduling according to any one of the first aspect.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the risk benefit analysis method for the cascade power station group scheduling, provided by the invention, constructs a scheduling comprehensive evaluation system of the cascade power station group, expands a method for dividing the importance degree according to the index category by the traditional analytic hierarchy process, adopts two attributes of the index category and the index quantity to define the index importance degree sequence, namely introduces the division of the risk level, and adopts different scheduling evaluation systems under different risk levels; in practice, the task background of the scheduling can be truly reflected; meanwhile, when a cascade power station group is constructed, importance among power stations is considered, comprehensive risk benefit evaluation of the cascade power station group is finally obtained, and powerful support can be effectively provided for scheduling history evaluation and scheduling strategy optimization of the cascade power station group in practice.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiment(s) of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the principles of the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a comparison of evaluation results for different scheduling schemes in an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a block diagram of a system in an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to examples and accompanying drawings, and the exemplary embodiments and descriptions thereof are only used for explaining the present invention and are not meant to limit the present invention.
Example 1: the risk benefit analysis method for the cascade station group dispatching, as shown in fig. 1, includes the following steps:
s1: acquiring current scheduling information and power station state information of a target power station;
s2: calculating an index value of the current scheduling information according to the risk index and the benefit index, and obtaining a corresponding risk index value and a corresponding benefit index value after index normalization processing;
s3: after the power station state information is input into a pre-constructed risk identification model, determining the risk category of a target power station, and determining the total weight coefficient of a risk item and a benefit item according to the risk category;
s4: respectively sorting the importance degrees of the risk indexes and the benefit indexes according to the risk categories, and respectively distributing weight coefficients for each index of the risk items and the benefit items from the corresponding total weight coefficients by combining an analytic hierarchy process and the importance degree sorting;
s5: carrying out weight calculation according to the risk index value, the benefit index value and the corresponding weight coefficient to respectively obtain a risk item comprehensive score and a benefit item comprehensive score, and summing to obtain a total dispatching comprehensive score of the target power station;
s6: and (4) iteratively calculating the total dispatching comprehensive score of each target power station in the cascade power station group, and performing weighted average calculation according to the annual output of each target power station to obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of the cascade power station group dispatching.
In the embodiment, the benefit indexes include four indexes of power generation amount, water abandoning loss load, water consumption loss load and whether water abandoning is performed. It should be noted that the benefit indicators can be properly increased or decreased according to the actual needs.
The formula for calculating the risk index value of the generated energy is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a benefit index value representing the amount of electricity generation;
representing the actual output;
representing a planned output;
a minimum value indicating an allowable range of the deviation;
indicates the maximum value of the deviation allowable range.
The formula for calculating the risk index value of the abandoned water loss load is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the benefit index value represents the water abandoning loss load;
representing the maximum output of the power station;
representing the reject flow of the power station;
representation of actual waterUnder the same condition, the output generated by the unit generating flow of the power station.
The calculation formula of the risk index value of the water consumption loss load is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a benefit index value representing a water consumption loss load;
the optimal water head which can be achieved under the conditions of meeting the safety constraint and realizing the same requirement with the actual output is shown;
indicating a given time
The average value of the corresponding benefit index value of the generated energy;
representing the actual average generated flow; function(s)
Representing the functional relationship of output, head and generated flow in the theoretical NHQ table.
In this embodiment, the risk indicators are specifically: selecting dam front water level information and ex-warehouse flow information from the current scheduling information; and establishing four indexes of a safe water level space, a safe flow space, whether the water level exceeds the limit or not and whether the flow exceeds the limit or not according to the water level information before the dam and the flow information out of the reservoir.
It should be noted that, the safe water level space and whether the water level is over-limited can be summarized in one index, that is, when the risk index value of whether the water level is over-limited is 1, it indicates that the water level is in an over-limited risk state, and there is no calculation of the safe water level space; and if the risk index value of whether the water level exceeds the limit is 0, indicating that the water level is in a risk state without exceeding the limit, and evaluating the safe water level space as an index.
The formula for calculating the risk index value of whether the flow exceeds the limit specifically comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a risk indicator value representing whether the flow is overrun;
representing warehouse-out flow information;
indicating the maximum outbound flow.
The risk index value calculation formula of the safe flow space specifically comprises the following steps:
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
a risk indicator value representing a safe traffic space;
indicating the minimum outbound traffic.
The formula for calculating the risk index value of whether the water level exceeds the limit specifically comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a risk index value indicating whether the water level is overrun;
representing dam front water level information;
indicating the maximum dam front level.
The risk index value calculation formula of the safe water level space is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a risk index value representing a safe water level space;
indicating the minimum dam water level.
In this embodiment, the risk identification model may be constructed by collecting historical water level and ex-warehouse flow information of the target power station in the same month. Historical data of the same month from the past year can also be used for construction. Specifically, statistical analysis is carried out on historical water level and ex-warehouse flow information of historical similar dates to find out the distribution of the historical water level and the ex-warehouse flow information, and then an experience-based risk analysis method is constructed according to a 3delta criterion. For example, in water level risk and flow risk, the risk levels are spatially divided into three categories: high risk, no risk and low risk.
In this embodiment, the risk categories are divided into at least six categories according to the association relationship between the risk items and the benefit items: most biased risk management, more biased risk management, risk benefit equivalence, biased benefit, and more biased benefit. It should be noted that the risk categories can be further subdivided according to the required accuracy of the system and the network resource configuration.
For example, the weights at different risk levels are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 weights at different Risk levels
The scheduling evaluation of three stations, namely the waterfall ditch, the deep stream ditch and the pillow dam which are in close relation with the upstream and the downstream in the river basin of the great river is taken as an example for explanation. And selecting data of 8, 15 and one week before 2020 to construct a reference index. Because the drainage basin generates larger flood in the period of time, the scheduling strategy should adaptively adjust and improve the weight of the risk item according to the change of the scheduling environment; according to the water level and the flow of the data cascade power station group, the risk type of the power station is identified, the risk prediction of the waterfall ditch is judged to be in the second level, namely 'more biased risk management', the risk rating of the deep stream ditch is in the fourth level, and the risk rating of the pillow dam is in the third level, so that the three power stations take different weights, and the specific weights are as shown in a table 2:
TABLE 2 Cascade power station risk benefit comprehensive evaluation weight matrix
The evaluation results of the scheduling schemes of the three stations of the waterfall ditch, the deep stream ditch and the pillow dam are shown in fig. 2, and from the scheme evaluation, the highest total score of the cascade power station group in the scheme 2 is 67.53 points, so that the scheduling scheme with the best comprehensive performance in all strategies is obtained; from the evaluation of each power station, in the scheme 2, the waterfall ditch scheduling score is high, and the total score is high due to the fact that the weight of the waterfall ditch is high.
Example 2: the risk benefit analysis system for the cascade power station group scheduling is used for realizing the content described in embodiment 1, and as shown in fig. 3, the system includes a data acquisition module, an index calculation module, a risk identification module, a weight distribution module, an evaluation analysis module, and an iteration update module.
The data acquisition module is used for acquiring current scheduling information and power station state information of the target power station. And the index calculation module is used for calculating the index value of the current scheduling information according to the risk index and the benefit index, and obtaining the corresponding risk index value and the corresponding benefit index value after index normalization processing. And the risk identification module is used for determining the risk category of the target power station after the power station state information is input into the pre-constructed risk identification model, and determining the total weight coefficient of the risk item and the benefit item according to the risk category. And the weight distribution module is used for respectively sequencing the importance degrees of the risk indexes and the benefit indexes according to the risk categories, and respectively distributing the weight coefficients for the indexes of the risk items and the benefit items from the corresponding total weight coefficients by combining the analytic hierarchy process and the importance degree sequencing. And the evaluation analysis module is used for carrying out weight calculation according to the risk index value, the benefit index value and the corresponding weight coefficient to respectively obtain a risk item comprehensive score and a benefit item comprehensive score, and summing the risk item comprehensive score and the benefit item comprehensive score to obtain a total dispatching comprehensive score of the target power station. And the iterative updating module is used for iteratively calculating the total dispatching comprehensive score of each target power station in the cascade power station group, and carrying out weighted average calculation according to the annual output of each target power station to obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of the cascade power station group dispatching.
The working principle is as follows: the invention constructs a dispatching comprehensive evaluation system of the cascade power station group, expands the method for dividing the importance degree according to the index category by the traditional analytic hierarchy process, adopts two attributes of the index category and the index quantity to define the index importance degree sequence, namely introduces the division of the risk level, and adopts different dispatching evaluation systems under different risk levels; in practice, the task background of the scheduling can be truly reflected; meanwhile, when a cascade power station group is constructed, importance among power stations is considered, comprehensive risk benefit evaluation of the cascade power station group is finally obtained, and powerful support can be effectively provided for scheduling history evaluation and scheduling strategy optimization of the cascade power station group in practice.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The above embodiments, objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention are further described in detail, it should be understood that the above embodiments are only examples of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. The risk benefit analysis method for dispatching in the cascade power station group is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring current scheduling information and power station state information of a target power station;
calculating an index value of the current scheduling information according to the risk index and the benefit index, and obtaining a corresponding risk index value and a corresponding benefit index value after index normalization processing;
after the power station state information is input into a pre-constructed risk identification model, determining the risk category of a target power station, and determining the total weight coefficient of a risk item and a benefit item according to the risk category;
respectively sorting the importance degrees of the risk indexes and the benefit indexes according to the risk categories, and respectively distributing weight coefficients for each index of the risk items and each index of the benefit items from the corresponding total weight coefficients by combining an analytic hierarchy process and the importance degree sorting;
carrying out weight calculation according to the risk index value, the benefit index value and the corresponding weight coefficient to respectively obtain a risk item comprehensive score and a benefit item comprehensive score, and summing to obtain a total dispatching comprehensive score of the target power station;
iteratively calculating the total dispatching comprehensive score of each target power station in the cascade power station group, and performing weighted average calculation according to the annual output of each target power station to obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of the cascade power station group dispatching;
the benefit indexes comprise four indexes of generating capacity, water abandoning loss load, water consumption loss load and whether water abandoning is performed or not;
the formula for calculating the risk index value of the generated energy is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a benefit index value representing the amount of electricity generation;
representing the actual output;
representing a planned output;
a minimum value indicating an allowable range of the deviation;
the maximum value of the deviation allowable range is represented;
the formula for calculating the risk index value of the abandoned water loss load is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the benefit index value represents the water abandoning loss load;
representing the maximum output of the power station;
representing the reject flow of the power station;
the output force generated by the unit generating flow of the power station under the condition of the same actual water head is represented;
the calculation formula of the risk index value of the water consumption loss load is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a benefit index value representing a water consumption loss load;
the optimal water head which can be achieved under the conditions of meeting the safety constraint and realizing the same requirement with the actual output is shown;
indicating a given time
The average value of the corresponding benefit index value of the generated energy;
representing the actual average generated flow; function(s)
Representing the functional relationship of output, head and generated flow in the theoretical NHQ table.
2. The method for analyzing risk benefit of cascaded-station group scheduling of claim 1, wherein the risk indicator is specifically:
selecting dam front water level information and ex-warehouse flow information from the current scheduling information;
and establishing four indexes of a safe water level space, a safe flow space, whether the water level exceeds the limit or not and whether the flow exceeds the limit or not according to the water level information before the dam and the flow information out of the reservoir.
3. The method for analyzing risk and benefit of dispatching of the cascade electric station group as claimed in claim 2, wherein the formula for calculating the risk index value of whether the flow exceeds the limit is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a risk indicator value representing whether the flow is overrun;
representing warehouse-out flow information;
representing the maximum outbound traffic;
the formula for calculating the risk index value of the safe flow space specifically comprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a risk indicator value representing a safe traffic space;
representing a minimum outbound flow;
the formula for calculating the risk index value of whether the water level exceeds the limit specifically comprises:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
to representRisk index value of whether the water level is overrun;
representing dam front water level information;
representing the maximum dam front water level;
the risk index value calculation formula of the safe water level space is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a risk index value representing a safe water level space;
indicating the minimum dam water level.
4. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk-benefit analysis method for dispatching of the cascaded station group is characterized in that the risk identification model is constructed by collecting historical water level and outbound flow information of a target station in the same month.
5. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk categories are divided into at least six categories according to the relationship between the risk items and the benefit items: most biased risk management, more biased risk management, risk benefit equivalence, biased benefit, and more biased benefit.
6. Risk benefit analysis system of cascade power station crowd's dispatch, characterized by includes:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring current scheduling information and power station state information of the target power station;
the index calculation module is used for calculating the index value of the current scheduling information according to the risk index and the benefit index, and obtaining the corresponding risk index value and the corresponding benefit index value after index normalization processing;
the risk identification module is used for inputting the power station state information into a pre-constructed risk identification model, then determining the risk category of the target power station, and determining the total weight coefficient of the risk item and the benefit item according to the risk category;
the weight distribution module is used for respectively sorting the importance degrees of the risk indexes and the benefit indexes according to the risk categories, and distributing weight coefficients for the indexes of the risk items and the benefit items from the corresponding total weight coefficients by combining the analytic hierarchy process and the importance degree sorting;
the evaluation analysis module is used for carrying out weight calculation according to the risk index value, the benefit index value and the corresponding weight coefficient to respectively obtain a risk item comprehensive score and a benefit item comprehensive score, and summing to obtain a total scheduling comprehensive score of the target power station;
the iterative updating module is used for iteratively calculating the total dispatching comprehensive score of each target power station in the cascade power station group, and carrying out weighted average calculation according to the annual output of each target power station to obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of the cascade power station group dispatching;
the benefit indexes comprise four indexes of generating capacity, water abandoning loss load, water consumption loss load and whether water abandoning is performed or not;
the formula for calculating the risk index value of the generated energy is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a benefit index value representing the amount of electricity generation;
representing the actual output;
representing a planned output;
a minimum value indicating an allowable range of the deviation;
the maximum value of the deviation allowable range is represented;
the formula for calculating the risk index value of the abandoned water loss load is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
the benefit index value represents the water abandoning loss load;
representing the maximum output of the power station;
representing the reject flow of the power station;
the output force generated by the unit generating flow of the power station under the condition of the same actual water head is represented;
the calculation formula of the risk index value of the water consumption loss load is specifically as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
a benefit index value representing a water consumption loss load;
the optimal water head which can be achieved under the conditions of meeting the safety constraint and realizing the same requirement with the actual output is shown;
indicating a given time
The average value of the corresponding benefit index value of the generated energy;
representing the actual average generated flow; function(s)
Representing the functional relationship of output, head and generated flow in the theoretical NHQ table.
7. The system of claim 6, wherein the risk-benefit analysis module is constructed by collecting historical water level and outbound flow information in the same month of the target power station.
8. The system of claim 6, wherein the risk categories are divided into at least six categories according to the relationship between the risk items and the benefit items: most biased risk management, more biased risk management, risk benefit equivalence, biased benefit, and more biased benefit.
9. A computer terminal comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor executes the program to implement the method for risk benefit analysis for cascaded-station-group dispatch as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 5.
10. A computer-readable medium, on which a computer program is stored, wherein the computer program is executed by a processor to implement a risk benefit analysis method for cascaded-cluster-dispatch as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 5.
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