CN114841473A - Overhauling cost prediction method and system based on aero-engine performance - Google Patents

Overhauling cost prediction method and system based on aero-engine performance Download PDF

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CN114841473A
CN114841473A CN202210762986.0A CN202210762986A CN114841473A CN 114841473 A CN114841473 A CN 114841473A CN 202210762986 A CN202210762986 A CN 202210762986A CN 114841473 A CN114841473 A CN 114841473A
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吕川
裘睿智
耿杰
李晨曦
周委璇
况开鑫
金玉雪
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Beihang University
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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of data processing, and particularly relates to a method and a system for predicting overhaul cost based on the performance of an aircraft engine. The method comprises the steps of obtaining performance parameters, cost conditions and performance recording conditions of the overhaul process of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul; determining key performance parameters, weight proportion of the key performance parameters and target cost according to the body part cost, the total overhaul cost and the overhaul process performance record condition; and fitting a multi-parameter equation by using the key performance parameters as independent variables and the target cost as dependent variables and adopting a partial least square method to determine the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the gross overhaul cost. The invention can improve the accuracy of the prediction of the overhaul cost.

Description

Overhauling cost prediction method and system based on aero-engine performance
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of data processing, in particular to a method and a system for predicting overhaul cost based on the performance of an aircraft engine.
Background
With the development of domestic aircraft engines, maintenance cost becomes an important cost expenditure item in the use process of the aircraft engines. Engine overhaul is an important way to restore engine performance and also an important component of maintenance costs. In the overhaul process, the repair process of the aircraft engine is relatively fixed, but the difference of the maintenance costs such as replacement of parts, working hours and the like is relatively large, and the repair process is closely related to the use process before overhaul. At present, after an overhaul factory receives an engine to be repaired, the performance of the aero-engine can be detected, corresponding index values are recorded, and performance degradation conditions and use levels are judged according to the values, so that corresponding overhaul work is completed.
At present, more items can be recorded in the process of actual inspection and maintenance of the performance parameters of the aero-engine, but according to the overhaul requirement of the aero-engine, the actually used performance parameters are selected from recorded parameter information data. The selection is determined according to the process requirements, the design condition, the use condition and the influence of each parameter on the actual performance. During actual overhaul, parameters related to the working temperature, the oil consumption and the running power are generally selected for use.
The detection of the performance in the overhaul process of the aero-engine is mainly divided into three types, namely a test record before maintenance, an adjustment test record during maintenance and a check test record after maintenance, and whether the effect of the overhaul reaches the standard or not is judged according to different performance data (various parameters in a test run record, such as temperature, oil consumption rate and rotating speed).
The overhaul cost of the aircraft engine is relatively complex in composition, more in composition components and various in classification methods. The current common methods can be roughly divided into cost calculation analysis according to component composition, cost type and maintenance stage. In the analysis of the overhaul costs of the engine, less intervention is made on the performance, and both the summary calculation and the analysis prediction are added according to the specific cost details in the maintenance record. This direct addition calculation method is direct and accurate when the summary calculation is performed when the cost data is already available, but it is relatively difficult to predict the cost data for a major repair in which the cost data is incomplete or the repair work is temporarily incomplete.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for predicting overhaul cost based on the performance of an aircraft engine, which can improve the accuracy of the overhaul cost prediction.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following scheme:
a major repair cost prediction method based on the performance of an aircraft engine comprises the following steps:
acquiring performance parameters and cost conditions of each model of aero-engine before overhaul and performance recording conditions of the overhaul process; the performance parameters include: temperature, fuel consumption, rotational speed, and operating power; the cost situation includes: major repair total costs, major repair each classification costs and component level costs; the overhaul classification cost comprises the following steps: major repair unit cost, body component cost, and add-on cost;
determining key performance parameters, weight proportion of the key performance parameters and target cost according to the body part cost, the total overhaul cost and the overhaul process performance record condition; the target cost includes: the total cost of the body and the total cost of major repair;
and fitting a multi-parameter equation by using the key performance parameters as independent variables and the target cost as dependent variables and adopting a partial least square method to determine the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the gross overhaul cost.
Optionally, the determining key performance parameters, the weighted proportion of the key performance parameters, and the target cost according to the body component cost, the total overhaul cost, and the overhaul process performance record condition further includes:
and (4) carrying out normalization processing on the performance parameters and the cost condition of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and the performance record condition of the overhaul process.
Optionally, the fitting of the multi-parameter equation is performed by using the key performance parameter as an independent variable and the target cost as a dependent variable and using a partial least square method, and the mapping relationship between the key performance parameter and the overhaul total cost is determined, which specifically includes:
determining a corresponding fitting result according to each objective function;
comparing errors according to the fitting result with actual overhaul total cost;
and determining the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the target cost by using a fitting equation corresponding to the minimum error comparison result.
A major repair cost prediction system based on aircraft engine performance, comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring performance parameters and cost conditions of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and performance recording conditions of the overhaul process; the performance parameters include: temperature, fuel consumption, rotational speed, and operating power; the cost situation includes: major repair total costs, major repair each classification costs and component level costs; the overhaul classification cost comprises the following steps: major repair unit cost, body component cost, and add-on cost;
the target cost and performance determination module is used for determining key performance parameters, the weight proportion of the key performance parameters and the target cost according to the body component cost, the total overhaul cost and the overhaul process performance record condition; the target cost includes: the total cost of the body and the total cost of major repair;
and the mapping relation determining module is used for fitting a multi-parameter equation by using the key performance parameters as independent variables and the target cost as dependent variables and adopting a partial least square method to determine the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the overhaul total cost.
Optionally, the method further comprises:
and the normalization processing module is used for performing normalization processing on the performance parameters and the cost condition of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and the performance recording condition of the overhaul process.
Optionally, the mapping relationship determining module specifically includes:
the fitting result determining unit is used for determining a corresponding fitting result according to each target function;
the error comparison unit is used for carrying out error comparison according to the fitting result and the actual overhaul total cost;
and the mapping relation determining unit is used for determining the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the target cost by using the fitting equation corresponding to the minimum error comparison result.
A major repair cost prediction system based on aircraft engine performance, comprising: an input, a processor and a memory;
the input device and the memory are both connected with the processor; the input device is used for inputting performance parameters, cost conditions and overhaul process performance recording conditions of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul; the memory is used for storing a computer software program; the processor is used for calling and executing the computer software program according to the input performance parameters and cost conditions of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and the performance record condition of the overhaul process so as to determine the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the overhaul total cost; the computer software program is used for implementing the method for predicting the overhaul cost based on the performance of the aircraft engine.
According to the specific embodiment provided by the invention, the invention discloses the following technical effects:
according to the method and the system for predicting the overhaul cost based on the performance of the aero-engine, provided by the invention, the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the overhaul total cost is determined along with the performance recording condition of the overhaul process from the performance parameters of each model, the uncertainty of the overhaul process cost of the aero-engine is considered, and the performance-based overhaul cost prediction is realized. The problem of cost collection in the maintenance process is avoided, and according to the maintenance similarity and the performance parameter commonality of the same model, the proper performance parameters are selected and subjected to cost fitting by means of a partial least square method, and then the method is applied to the engine needing prediction.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings without inventive exercise.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting overhaul costs based on aircraft engine performance according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a major repair cost prediction system based on aircraft engine performance according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for predicting overhaul cost based on the performance of an aero-engine, which can improve the accuracy of the prediction of the overhaul cost.
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, embodiments accompanied with figures are described in further detail below.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a major repair cost prediction method based on the performance of an aircraft engine, and as shown in fig. 1, the major repair cost prediction method based on the performance of the aircraft engine provided by the invention includes:
s101, acquiring performance parameters, cost conditions and performance recording conditions of the overhaul process of each model of aero-engine before overhaul; the performance parameters include, but are not limited to: temperature, fuel consumption, rotational speed and operating powerRate, is noted as x 1 ，x 2 ，x 3 ，……x i (ii) a The cost situation includes: major repair total costs, major repair each classification costs and component level costs; the overhaul various classification costs include, but are not limited to: major repair unit cost, body component cost, and add-on cost;
the gross repair total cost is the total cost of the single gross repair of the engine of the model, which is expressed by Z, and each engine carries out statistics one by one due to different use conditions and degradation damage conditions;
the overhaul classification cost refers to the overhaul cost of an engine which does not count purchased parts, or the repair cost of a main body, or the repair cost divided according to other bases and standards, which is part of the overall overhaul cost, but the correlation degree of relative performance is higher, so that the overhaul classification cost can be used as a dependent variable to carry out calculation statistical analysis, is marked as Y, and is also counted one by one;
the overhaul component level cost means that when the cost is summarized according to different group component level classifications, cost rules embodied by different group components and performance association are different, and cost statistics can be analyzed separately and independently and recorded as W.
S102, determining key performance parameters, weight proportions of the key performance parameters and target cost according to the body part cost, the total overhaul cost and the overhaul process performance record condition; and determining the influence of the performance change of the actual overhaul process on the overhaul cost and the effect according to the overhaul process performance record sheet, further selecting the relevant key performance parameters applicable to the model, and setting reasonable influence factors, namely weight proportions, for the key performance parameters according to the influence of the key performance parameters on the actual overhaul.
As a specific example, from the recorded performance parameter x 1 ，x 2 ，x 3 ，……x i And n relevant performance parameters suitable for the model are selected. E.g. selected property x 1 ，x 2 ，x 3 ，……x n Setting reasonable influence factors, namely weight proportion, recorded as k for each key performance parameter according to the influence of the weight factors on actual overhaul 1 ，k 2 ，k 3 ，……k n . And performing calculation analysis by taking the product of the parameter and the weight proportion as the variable value of the independent variable.
The target cost includes, but is not limited to: the total cost of the body and the total cost of major repair; part of the part cost with strong performance correlation, namely the cost of the unit body or the part grade accounting for the total overhaul cost is high, for example, the total repair cost of non-outsourcing parts is part of the overhaul, and the cost type is selected according to the actual requirement.
Before S102, the method further includes:
and (4) carrying out normalization processing on the performance parameters and the cost condition of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and the performance record condition of the overhaul process.
And S103, fitting a multi-parameter equation by using the key performance parameters as independent variables and the target cost as dependent variables and adopting a partial least square method to determine the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the total overhaul cost.
S103 specifically comprises the following steps:
determining a corresponding fitting result according to each target function;
comparing errors according to the fitting result with actual overhaul total cost;
and determining the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the target cost by using a fitting equation corresponding to the minimum error comparison result.
And for a plurality of fitting equations with different target costs, performing comparison and arrangement according to the actual cost data to form error comparison analysis, and selecting a partial least square equation with smaller error which meets the requirements as an equation formula for cost prediction.
The basic process of the partial least squares method is as follows:
1) determining equation types which are mainly divided into two types, wherein the structure of a linear equation is uniformly taken as follows:
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；
the structure of the unified logarithmic equation is as follows:
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；
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
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a presentation cost element;
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representing an engine performance parameter;
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are coefficients determined by regression analysis.
The second type of structure is the whole parameter logarithmic equation, whose structure is based on the dimensionless of the cost elements and performance parameters.
2) Will be provided with
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And
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carrying out standardization processing to obtain a standardized independent variable matrix
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And dependent variable matrix
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The purpose of the normalization process is to facilitate formulation and reduce operation errors.
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；
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；
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
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is that
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The average value of (a) of (b),
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is that
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Standard deviation of (d);
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is that
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The mean value of (a);
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is that
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Standard deviation of (2).
3) From
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One component is extracted from the raw materials,
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wherein:
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；
practice of
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And
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in that
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Regression on the above:
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；
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
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、
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is the coefficient of regression (
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Is a scalar quantity), i.e.
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；
Residual error recording matrix
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；
Check for convergence if
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To pair
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If the regression equation of (A) has reached satisfactory precision, carrying out the next step; otherwise, let:
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；
returning to the step 3), carrying out a new round of component extraction and regression analysis on the residual matrix
4) In the h step (
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) The equation satisfies the requirement, and m components are obtained at the moment
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To carry out
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In that
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Go back to
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；
Due to the fact that
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Are all provided with
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The linear combination of (a) and (b), therefore,
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can be written as
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I.e.:
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；
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
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and I is an identity matrix.
Finally, there are
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；
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Has a regression coefficient of
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. In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
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is that
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To (1) a
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And (4) a variable.
5) According to the inverse process of standardization
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Is reduced to
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To pair
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The regression equation of (1).
As shown in fig. 2, the overhaul cost prediction process is completed by taking the overhaul condition of an aircraft engine of a certain model as an example.
Collecting and sorting data, predicting the cost of a body part, selecting 50 major repairs of a certain type of aeroengine for statistics, and collecting a complete performance record table and information of the total cost of the body part and the total cost of the major repairs to form a data table;
selecting the fuel consumption rate (x) from the recorded performance parameters by actual maintenance index and expert analysis condition 1 ) Average temperature (x) of T45 section of this engine 2 ) Engine speed (x) 3 ) And running power (x) 4 ) As a performance index, the distribution influence factors are all 1, and the influence of each parameter on the cost is basically leveled;
recording the total overhaul cost as Z and the body maintenance cost as Y, and fitting an equation to the two target costs by using a partial least square method respectively because the relationship between the cost and the performance cannot be determined to be more close;
from the data, partial least squares equations for Z and Y are obtained, respectively:
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；
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；
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；
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；
respectively describing a linear relation between the performance and the total overhaul cost, a logarithmic linear relation between the performance and the total overhaul cost, a linear relation between the performance and the body maintenance cost and a logarithmic linear relation between the performance and the body maintenance cost;
and (3) error comparison: respectively substituting the collected performance data into four equations to obtain calculated values, and calculating according to an error calculation method
Error = (| actual value-true value |/true value) × 100%;
obtaining error values of a single engine obtained by the four calculation methods, further obtaining respective average errors of the four different prediction equations, selecting an equation with the expected error and smaller error as a prediction final selected equation, wherein the equation is selected in the example
Figure 352794DEST_PATH_IMAGE054
As a prediction equation, the error is about 9%;
substituting the engine performance value to be predicted, i.e. the fuel consumption rate (x) 1 ) Average temperature (x) of T45 section of this engine 2 ) Engine speed (x) 3 ) And running power (x) 4 ) And calculating to obtain a final prediction result.
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a major repair cost prediction system based on the performance of an aircraft engine, as shown in fig. 3, the major repair cost prediction system based on the performance of the aircraft engine provided by the present invention includes:
the data acquisition module 301 is used for acquiring performance parameters, cost conditions and performance recording conditions of the overhaul process of each model of aircraft engine before overhaul; the performance parameters include: temperature, fuel consumption, rotational speed, and operating power; the cost situation includes: major repair total costs, major repair each classification costs and component level costs; the overhaul classification cost comprises the following steps: major repair unit cost, body component cost, and add-on cost;
a target cost and performance determination module 302, configured to determine a key performance parameter, a weight ratio of the key performance parameter, and a target cost according to the body component cost, the total overhaul cost, and the overhaul process performance record; the target cost includes: the total cost of the body and the total cost of major repair;
and the mapping relation determining module 303 is configured to perform fitting of a multi-parameter equation by using the key performance parameter as an independent variable and the target cost as a dependent variable and using a partial least square method to determine a mapping relation between the key performance parameter and the overhaul total cost.
The invention provides a major repair cost prediction system based on the performance of an aircraft engine, which further comprises:
and the normalization processing module is used for performing normalization processing on the performance parameters and the cost condition of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and the performance recording condition of the overhaul process.
The mapping relationship determining module 303 specifically includes:
the fitting result determining unit is used for determining a corresponding fitting result according to each target function;
the error comparison unit is used for carrying out error comparison according to the fitting result and the actual overhaul total cost;
and the mapping relation determining unit is used for determining the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the target cost by using the fitting equation corresponding to the minimum error comparison result.
The invention also provides a major repair cost prediction system based on the performance of the aircraft engine, which comprises the following steps: an input, a processor and a memory;
the input device and the memory are both connected with the processor; the input device is used for inputting performance parameters, cost conditions and overhaul process performance recording conditions of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul; the memory is used for storing a computer software program; the processor is used for calling and executing the computer software program according to the input performance parameters and cost conditions of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and the performance record condition of the overhaul process so as to determine the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the overhaul total cost; the computer software program is used for implementing the method for predicting the overhaul cost based on the performance of the aircraft engine.
Compared with the existing prediction method for the overhaul cost of the aero-engine, the method has the following advantages:
the influence of the performance before overhaul on overhaul is fully considered, and different performance conditions can reflect damage and degradation conditions of different engines in the use process;
the required data is relatively reduced, the prediction range is large, the predictable cost type is not limited, and the method can be used for other component overhaul cost components related to performance besides the overhaul total cost;
the preliminary prediction evaluation can be carried out before the major repair work is carried out, so that the defect that a part of expense data in the major repair process is needed in the traditional method is avoided;
the method provides technical feasibility for reducing prediction errors, improving prediction precision and predicting development direction of overhaul cost of subsequent models.
The embodiments in the present description are described in a progressive manner, each embodiment focuses on differences from other embodiments, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other. For the system disclosed by the embodiment, the description is relatively simple because the system corresponds to the method disclosed by the embodiment, and the relevant points can be referred to the method part for description.
The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described herein using specific examples, which are provided only to help understand the method and the core concept of the present invention; meanwhile, for a person skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, the specific embodiments and the application range may be changed. In view of the above, the present disclosure should not be construed as limiting the invention.

Claims (7)

1. A major repair cost prediction method based on the performance of an aircraft engine is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring performance parameters and cost conditions of each model of aero-engine before overhaul and performance recording conditions of the overhaul process; the performance parameters include: temperature, fuel consumption, rotational speed, and operating power; the cost situation includes: major repair total costs, major repair each classification costs and component level costs; the overhaul classification cost comprises the following steps: major repair unit cost, body component cost, and add-on cost;
determining key performance parameters, weight proportion of the key performance parameters and target cost according to the body part cost, the total overhaul cost and the overhaul process performance record condition; the target cost includes: the total cost of the body and the total cost of major repair;
and fitting a multi-parameter equation by using the key performance parameters as independent variables and the target cost as dependent variables and adopting a partial least square method to determine the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the gross overhaul cost.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the determining key performance parameters, the weighted proportion of key performance parameters and the target cost according to the body component cost, the total overhaul cost and the overhaul process performance record further comprises:
and (4) carrying out normalization processing on the performance parameters and the cost condition of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and the performance record condition of the overhaul process.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the key performance parameters are used as independent variables, the target cost is used as a dependent variable, a multi-parameter equation is fitted by a partial least squares method, and a mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the overhaul total cost is determined, specifically comprising:
determining a corresponding fitting result according to each objective function;
comparing errors according to the fitting result with actual overhaul total cost;
and determining the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the target cost by using a fitting equation corresponding to the minimum error comparison result.
4. A major repair cost prediction system based on aircraft engine performance, comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring performance parameters and cost conditions of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and performance recording conditions of the overhaul process; the performance parameters include: temperature, fuel consumption, rotational speed, and operating power; the cost situation includes: major repair total costs, major repair each classification costs and component level costs; the overhaul classification cost comprises the following steps: major repair unit cost, body component cost, and add-on cost;
the target cost and performance determination module is used for determining key performance parameters, the weight proportion of the key performance parameters and the target cost according to the body component cost, the total overhaul cost and the overhaul process performance record condition; the target cost includes: the total cost of the body and the total cost of major repair;
and the mapping relation determining module is used for fitting a multi-parameter equation by using the key performance parameters as independent variables and the target cost as dependent variables and adopting a partial least square method to determine the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the overhaul total cost.
5. The system of claim 4, further comprising:
and the normalization processing module is used for performing normalization processing on the performance parameters and the cost condition of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and the performance recording condition of the overhaul process.
6. The system of claim 4, wherein the mapping determination module comprises:
the fitting result determining unit is used for determining a corresponding fitting result according to each target function;
the error comparison unit is used for carrying out error comparison according to the fitting result and the actual overhaul total cost;
and the mapping relation determining unit is used for determining the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the target cost by using the fitting equation corresponding to the minimum error comparison result.
7. A major repair cost prediction system based on aircraft engine performance, comprising: an input, a processor and a memory;
the input device and the memory are both connected with the processor; the input device is used for inputting performance parameters, cost conditions and overhaul process performance recording conditions of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul; the memory is used for storing a computer software program; the processor is used for calling and executing the computer software program according to the input performance parameters and cost conditions of each model of the aircraft engine before overhaul and the performance record condition of the overhaul process so as to determine the mapping relation between the key performance parameters and the overhaul total cost; the computer software program for implementing a method for prediction of overhaul costs based on aircraft engine performance according to any one of claims 1 to 3.
CN202210762986.0A 2022-07-01 2022-07-01 Overhauling cost prediction method and system based on aero-engine performance Pending CN114841473A (en)

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Citations (4)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN108009692A (en) * 2017-12-26 2018-05-08 东软集团股份有限公司 Maintenance of equipment information processing method, device, computer equipment and storage medium
CN109840314A (en) * 2019-01-28 2019-06-04 烟台大学 A kind of equipment Maintenance Cost evaluation method
CN112560223A (en) * 2020-11-18 2021-03-26 南京航空航天大学 Aero-engine full life cycle maintenance probability modeling and cost prediction method
US20210374644A1 (en) * 2020-06-01 2021-12-02 Saudi Arabian Oil Company Equipment lifetime prediction based on the total cost of ownership

Patent Citations (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN108009692A (en) * 2017-12-26 2018-05-08 东软集团股份有限公司 Maintenance of equipment information processing method, device, computer equipment and storage medium
CN109840314A (en) * 2019-01-28 2019-06-04 烟台大学 A kind of equipment Maintenance Cost evaluation method
US20210374644A1 (en) * 2020-06-01 2021-12-02 Saudi Arabian Oil Company Equipment lifetime prediction based on the total cost of ownership
CN112560223A (en) * 2020-11-18 2021-03-26 南京航空航天大学 Aero-engine full life cycle maintenance probability modeling and cost prediction method

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