CN114822061B - Arrival time estimation method, arrival time estimation device, electronic equipment and computer program product - Google Patents
Arrival time estimation method, arrival time estimation device, electronic equipment and computer program product Download PDFInfo
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/09—Arrangements for giving variable traffic instructions
- G08G1/0962—Arrangements for giving variable traffic instructions having an indicator mounted inside the vehicle, e.g. giving voice messages
- G08G1/0968—Systems involving transmission of navigation instructions to the vehicle
- G08G1/096805—Systems involving transmission of navigation instructions to the vehicle where the transmitted instructions are used to compute a route
- G08G1/096811—Systems involving transmission of navigation instructions to the vehicle where the transmitted instructions are used to compute a route where the route is computed offboard
- G08G1/096822—Systems involving transmission of navigation instructions to the vehicle where the transmitted instructions are used to compute a route where the route is computed offboard where the segments of the route are transmitted to the vehicle at different locations and times
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
- G08G1/0104—Measuring and analyzing of parameters relative to traffic conditions
- G08G1/0125—Traffic data processing
- G08G1/0129—Traffic data processing for creating historical data or processing based on historical data
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/09—Arrangements for giving variable traffic instructions
- G08G1/0962—Arrangements for giving variable traffic instructions having an indicator mounted inside the vehicle, e.g. giving voice messages
- G08G1/0968—Systems involving transmission of navigation instructions to the vehicle
- G08G1/096805—Systems involving transmission of navigation instructions to the vehicle where the transmitted instructions are used to compute a route
- G08G1/096827—Systems involving transmission of navigation instructions to the vehicle where the transmitted instructions are used to compute a route where the route is computed onboard
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Abstract
The embodiment of the disclosure discloses a method, a device, electronic equipment and a computer program product for estimating arrival time, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining a target route, wherein the target route comprises one or more target road segments; estimating and obtaining the estimated passing time of the target road section based on the real-time passing time and the historical passing time corresponding to the target road section; and adding the departure time of the target route and the estimated passing time of the target road section contained in the target route to obtain the estimated arrival time of the target route. According to the technical scheme, the estimated accuracy of the time required for reaching the destination can be effectively improved, the influence of low estimated accuracy of the time of arrival on traffic conditions is avoided, the service quality of a traffic navigation service platform can be improved, and the use experience of a user is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The embodiment of the disclosure relates to the technical field of navigation, in particular to a method and a device for estimating arrival time, electronic equipment and a computer program product.
Background
With the development and progress of society, more and more vehicles are on the road, and many users can check the navigation route and the time required for reaching the destination through the application software with the map navigation function before going out. Because the conditions such as peaks in the morning and evening, holidays, traffic accidents and the like can cause abrupt change of the traffic condition of the road compared with the daily traffic condition of the road, the abrupt change of the traffic condition can influence the accuracy of the estimated time required to reach the destination. In turn, accuracy of the time estimate required to reach the destination can affect the user's travel decisions, and thus the traffic conditions. Therefore, it is an important issue to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the time required to reach the destination.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the disclosure provides a method, a device, electronic equipment and a computer program product for estimating arrival time.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present disclosure provides a method for estimating an arrival time.
Specifically, the arrival time estimation method includes:
determining a target route, wherein the target route comprises one or more target road segments;
estimating and obtaining the estimated passing time of the target road section based on the real-time passing time and the historical passing time corresponding to the target road section;
And adding the departure time of the target route and the estimated passing time of the target road section contained in the target route to obtain the estimated arrival time of the target route.
With reference to the first aspect, in a first implementation manner of the first aspect, the estimating, based on the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time corresponding to the target road segment, the predicted traffic time of the target road segment includes:
determining an estimated time of entry for the target segment;
determining the real-time transit time of a target real-time batch of the target road section, to which the estimated entry time belongs;
acquiring the historical passing time of the historical time batch corresponding to the estimated entering time of the target road section;
and carrying out weighted calculation on the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time to obtain the estimated traffic time of the target road section.
With reference to the first aspect and the first implementation manner of the first aspect, in a second implementation manner of the first aspect, the determining a real-time transit time of the target real-time batch to which the estimated entry time belongs in the target road segment includes:
acquiring position data of a traveling object traveling on the target road section in a target real-time batch to which the estimated entry time belongs;
Determining real-time transit time for the traveling object to pass through the target road section according to the position data of the traveling object;
and determining an average value of the real-time transit time of the travelling object, and taking the average value as the real-time transit time of the target real-time batch of the target road section, to which the estimated entering time belongs.
With reference to the first aspect and the foregoing implementation manner of the first aspect, in a third implementation manner of the first aspect, the determining an average value of real-time transit times of the traveling objects includes:
removing the deviation value in the real-time passing time of the travelling object;
an average of the remaining real-time transit times is determined.
With reference to the first aspect and the foregoing implementation manner of the first aspect, in a fourth implementation manner of the first aspect, the obtaining a historical transit time of the target road section, where the historical transit time corresponds to the estimated entry time, includes:
acquiring position data of a traveling object traveling on the target road section in different historical time batches corresponding to the estimated entry time;
according to the position data of the travelling object, determining the historical passing time of the travelling object corresponding to the historical time batch through the target road section;
And determining an average value of the historical transit time of the advancing object to obtain the historical transit time of different historical time batches on the target road section.
With reference to the first aspect and the foregoing implementation manner of the first aspect, in a fifth implementation manner of the first aspect, the determining an average value of the historical transit time of the traveling object includes:
removing the deviation value in the historical transit time of the travelling object;
an average of the remaining historical transit times is determined.
With reference to the first aspect and the foregoing implementation manner of the first aspect, in a sixth implementation manner of the first aspect, the weighting calculation for the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time to obtain the predicted traffic time of the target road section includes:
setting a first initial weight of real-time passing time and a second initial weight of historical passing time, wherein the sum of the first initial weight and the second initial weight is 1;
determining a first product of the first initial weight and the real-time transit time;
determining a second product of the second initial weight and the historical transit time;
and determining the sum of the first product and the second product to obtain the estimated transit time of the target road section.
With reference to the first aspect and the foregoing implementation manner of the first aspect, in a seventh implementation manner of the first aspect, the method further includes:
correcting the first initial weight based on the speed curves of the target road sections on different historical time batches;
the determining a first product of the first initial weight and the real-time transit time specifically includes:
a first product of the corrected first initial weight and the real-time transit time is determined.
With reference to the first aspect and the foregoing implementation manner of the first aspect, in an eighth implementation manner of the first aspect, the correcting the first initial weight based on the speed curve of the target road segment over different historical time batches includes:
determining speed curves on different historical time batches of the target road section;
detecting and obtaining a speed mutation point set on the speed curve, wherein the speed mutation point set comprises a speed mutation point and a speed mutation point which are crossed;
determining a target historical time batch corresponding to the target real-time batch;
detecting the speed mutation time corresponding to the speed mutation point closest to the target historical time batch on the right side of the target historical time batch on the speed curve;
Determining an absolute time difference value between the speed mutation time and the target historical time batch ending time, and determining a weight correction coefficient according to the absolute time difference value;
and correcting the first initial weight value to be the product of the first initial weight value and the weight value correction coefficient.
With reference to the first aspect and the foregoing implementation manner of the first aspect, in a ninth implementation manner of the first aspect, the determining a speed profile of the target road segment over different historical time batches includes:
determining the historical passing speeds of different historical time batches on the target road section based on the length of the target road section and the historical passing times of the different historical time batches on the target road section;
generating a speed curve on different historical time batches of the target road section based on the historical traffic speed;
and smoothing the speed curve.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present disclosure provides an arrival time estimating apparatus.
Specifically, the arrival time estimating device includes:
a determination module configured to determine a target route, wherein the target route comprises one or more target road segments;
The estimating module is configured to estimate and obtain the estimated passing time of the target road section based on the real-time passing time and the historical passing time corresponding to the target road section;
and the addition module is configured to add the departure time of the target route and the estimated transit time of the target road section contained in the target route to obtain the estimated arrival time of the target route.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present disclosure provides an electronic device, including a memory for storing one or more computer instructions that support a time of arrival estimation apparatus to perform the time of arrival estimation method described above, and a processor configured to execute the computer instructions stored in the memory. The time of arrival estimation means may further comprise a communication interface for communicating the time of arrival estimation means with other devices or communication networks.
In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present disclosure provides a computer readable storage medium storing computer instructions for use by a time of arrival estimation apparatus, where the computer instructions are configured to perform the method of time of arrival estimation described above as being related to the time of arrival estimation apparatus.
In a fifth aspect, embodiments of the present disclosure provide a computer program product comprising a computer program/instruction, wherein the computer program/instruction, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the time of arrival estimation method described above.
The technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the disclosure can comprise the following beneficial effects:
according to the technical scheme, the estimated passing time of the target road section is determined based on the real-time passing time and the historical passing time corresponding to the target road section, and the arrival time estimated value of the target route is further obtained. According to the technical scheme, the estimated accuracy of the time required for reaching the destination can be effectively improved, the influence of low estimated accuracy of the time of arrival on traffic conditions is avoided, the service quality of a traffic navigation service platform can be improved, and the use experience of a user is improved.
It is to be understood that both the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only and are not restrictive of embodiments of the disclosure.
Drawings
Other features, objects and advantages of the embodiments of the present disclosure will become more apparent from the following detailed description of non-limiting embodiments, taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 illustrates a flow chart of a method of arrival time estimation according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
FIG. 2 shows a block diagram of a time of arrival estimation apparatus according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
FIG. 3 shows a block diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a computer system suitable for use in implementing a time of arrival estimation method according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
Detailed Description
Hereinafter, exemplary implementations of the embodiments of the present disclosure will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings so that those skilled in the art can easily implement them. In addition, for the sake of clarity, portions irrelevant to description of the exemplary embodiments are omitted in the drawings.
In the presently disclosed embodiments, it is to be understood that the terms such as "comprises" or "comprising" and the like are intended to indicate the presence of features, numbers, steps, acts, components, portions, or combinations thereof disclosed in the present specification, and are not intended to exclude the possibility of one or more other features, numbers, steps, acts, components, portions, or combinations thereof being present or added.
In addition, it should be noted that, without conflict, the embodiments of the present disclosure and features of the embodiments may be combined with each other. Embodiments of the present disclosure will be described in detail below with reference to the attached drawings in conjunction with the embodiments.
According to the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the disclosure, the estimated passing time of the target road section is determined based on the real-time passing time and the historical passing time corresponding to the target road section, and the arrival time estimated value of the target route is further obtained. According to the technical scheme, the estimated accuracy of the time required for reaching the destination can be effectively improved, the influence of low estimated accuracy of the time of arrival on traffic conditions is avoided, the service quality of a traffic navigation service platform can be improved, and the use experience of a user is improved.
Fig. 1 shows a flowchart of a method of estimating arrival time according to an embodiment of the present disclosure, as shown in fig. 1, including the following steps S101 to S103:
in step S101, a target route is determined, wherein the target route comprises one or more target road segments;
in step S102, estimating an estimated traffic time of the target road section based on the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time corresponding to the target road section;
in step S103, the departure time of the target route and the estimated transit time of the target road section included in the target route are added to obtain the estimated arrival time of the target route.
As mentioned above, with the development and progress of society, more and more vehicles are on the road, and many users can view the navigation route and the time required to reach the destination through the application software with the map navigation function before going out. Because the conditions such as peaks in the morning and evening, holidays, traffic accidents and the like can cause abrupt change of the traffic condition of the road compared with the daily traffic condition of the road, the abrupt change of the traffic condition can influence the accuracy of the estimated time required to reach the destination. In turn, accuracy of the time estimate required to reach the destination can affect the user's travel decisions, and thus the traffic conditions. Therefore, it is an important issue to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the time required to reach the destination.
In view of the above, in this embodiment, an arrival time estimating method is proposed, which determines an estimated transit time of a target link based on a real-time transit time and a historical transit time corresponding to the target link, and further obtains an arrival time estimated value of the target route. According to the technical scheme, the estimated accuracy of the time required for reaching the destination can be effectively improved, the influence of low estimated accuracy of the time of arrival on traffic conditions is avoided, the service quality of a traffic navigation service platform can be improved, and the use experience of a user is improved.
In an embodiment of the disclosure, the arrival time estimation method may be applied to a computer, a computing device, an electronic device, a server, a service cluster, etc. that may perform arrival time estimation.
In an embodiment of the present disclosure, the target route refers to a route in which it is necessary to determine a transit time, that is, a time required from a start point to an end point of the target route. In an embodiment of the present disclosure, the target route may include one or more target segments, i.e., the target route may be composed of one or more target segments, wherein the target segment may be one segment in the road network data. In the present disclosure, the transit time of the target road section is estimated respectively, and the transit time of the target route is obtained finally.
In an embodiment of the present disclosure, the real-time transit time corresponding to the target road section refers to a determined time required for a traveling object such as a vehicle to pass through the target road section in a certain shorter period of time closest to the departure time of the target route, where the duration of the shorter period of time may be set by a person skilled in the art according to the needs of practical application, for example, the shorter period of time may be set to a period of time longer than several minutes.
In an embodiment of the present disclosure, the historical transit time corresponding to the target road section refers to a time required for a traveling object such as a vehicle to pass through the target road section within a certain longer time period in a determined history, where a duration of the longer time period may be set by a person skilled in the art according to a requirement of an actual application, for example, the longer time period may be set to a time period of several weeks or several days.
In one embodiment of the present disclosure, the traveling object refers to a sample object that can travel in a certain traveling direction and can be observed and counted. The travelling object may be a vehicle, for example, but in other application scenarios, the travelling object may also be a pedestrian, a bicycle, or other statistically detectable travelling object.
Considering that navigation route planning is divided into two cases, one is that a route is now requested to start, and the other is that a route is now viewed by navigation software when a route starts at a certain future time, so in an embodiment of the present disclosure, the starting time of the target route may be either the current time or a certain future time designated by a user.
In the above embodiment, after determining a target route and one or more target road segments included in the target route, each target road segment is taken as an analysis object, a real-time passing time and a historical passing time corresponding to the target road segment are obtained, and an estimated passing time of the target road segment is estimated based on the real-time passing time and the historical passing time corresponding to the target road segment, where a sum of the estimated passing times of the one or more target road segments is the estimated passing time of the target route; and finally, adding the departure time of the target route and the estimated passing time of the target route to obtain the estimated arrival time of the target route.
In an embodiment of the disclosure, the step S102, that is, the step of estimating the estimated traffic time of the target road section based on the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time corresponding to the target road section, may include the following steps:
Determining an estimated time of entry for the target segment;
determining the real-time transit time of a target real-time batch of the target road section, to which the estimated entry time belongs;
acquiring the historical passing time of the historical time batch corresponding to the estimated entering time of the target road section;
and carrying out weighted calculation on the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time to obtain the estimated traffic time of the target road section.
In an embodiment of the present disclosure, the estimated time of entry of the target link refers to an estimated time of entry into the target link, the estimated time of entry of the target link is related to a relationship between the target link and a current link where the traveling object is located, for example, when the target link is a link where the traveling object requests a navigation route to be planned, i.e., a start link, the estimated time of entry of the target link may be considered as a time when the navigation route is requested to be planned; when the target link is a link following the start link in the target route, such as a link next to the start link or other links between the start link and the target route end, the estimated time of entry of the target link may be considered as a sum of a time when planning a navigation route requested and one or more intermediate links, where the intermediate links refer to links between the start link and the target link. For example, if the time when planning a navigation route is requested is 10 a.m.: 00, the target route includes 3 target road sections, wherein the estimated passing time of the first target road section, the target road section 1 is 2 minutes, the estimated passing time of the second target road section, the target road section 2 is 1 minute, the estimated passing time of the third target road section, the target road section 3 is 3 minutes, and the estimated entering time of the target road section 1 is the time 10 when the navigation route planning is requested: 00, the estimated entry time of the target road segment 2 is the sum of the time when the navigation route planning is requested and the estimated transit time of the target road segment 1, namely 10:02, the estimated entry time of the target link 3 is the sum of the time when the navigation route planning is requested and the estimated transit time of the target link 1 and the target link 2, namely 10:03.
In order to improve the accuracy of the estimated time required for reaching the destination, the estimated time of the target road section is determined by combining the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time in the embodiment. Specifically, the estimated time of entry of the target link is first determined according to the method described above; then determining the real-time passing time of a target real-time batch which can embody the real-time passing feature and belongs to the estimated entering time of the target road section, wherein the real-time batch refers to a time batch which is divided into a certain fixed duration and is used for carrying out real-time data calculation, for example, if the fixed duration is one day, the real-time batch can be a time batch obtained by dividing 24 hours a day into units of one minute, and if the estimated entering time is 10 points 01 minutes 15 seconds, the target real-time batch which belongs to the estimated entering time is the time batch from 10 points 01 minutes to 10 points 02 minutes; then, acquiring a historical passing time of a historical time batch corresponding to the expected entering time of the target road section, wherein the historical time batch refers to a time batch which is divided into a certain fixed time length and is used for carrying out historical data calculation in a certain historical time length, for example, if the historical time length is one month, the fixed time length is one day, the historical time batch can be a time batch obtained by dividing 24 hours of each day of one month into ten minutes, and at the moment, if the expected entering time is 10 minutes 01 minutes 15 seconds in the first monday of the month, the historical time batch corresponding to the expected entering time is a time batch in which 10 minutes 00 to 10 minutes of the first monday of the previous month are located; and finally, carrying out weighted calculation on the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time to obtain the estimated traffic time of the target road section.
In an embodiment of the present disclosure, the step of determining the real-time transit time of the target real-time batch to which the predicted entry time belongs for the target road segment may include the steps of:
acquiring position data of a traveling object traveling on a target road section in the target real-time batch to which the expected entering time belongs;
determining real-time transit time for the traveling object to pass through the target road section according to the position data of the traveling object;
and determining an average value of the real-time transit time of the travelling object, and taking the average value as the real-time transit time of the target real-time batch of the target road section, to which the estimated entering time belongs.
In this embodiment, in order to obtain the real-time transit time of the target real-time batch to which the predicted entry time belongs, which can embody the real-time transit feature, first, position data of one or more traveling objects traveling on the target road section in the target real-time batch is obtained, and a position data set is obtained, wherein the position data set includes position data of the one or more traveling objects; then, according to the position data of the one or more travelling objects in the position data set, the real-time passing time used by the one or more travelling objects corresponding to the target real-time batch for respectively passing through the target road section can be determined; and finally, determining the average value of the real-time transit time of the one or more traveling objects to obtain the real-time transit time of the target real-time batch of the target road section, to which the estimated entering time belongs.
In consideration of the special situations such as faults and accidents of the travelling objects, the corresponding passing time also deviates from the median of the passing time greatly, so in an embodiment of the disclosure, the real-time passing time average value is determined after the deviation value in the real-time passing time of the one or more travelling objects is removed. That is, in an embodiment of the present disclosure, the step of determining an average value of the real-time transit times of the one or more traveling objects may include the steps of:
removing the deviation value in the real-time passing time of the travelling object;
an average of the remaining real-time transit times is determined.
The deviation value refers to real-time passing time of which the difference value between the real-time passing time value and the real-time passing time median is larger than a first preset threshold value.
In an embodiment of the present disclosure, obtaining the historical transit time of the historical time batch corresponding to the expected entry time of the target road segment may include the following steps:
acquiring position data of a traveling object traveling on the target road section in different historical time batches corresponding to the estimated entry time;
According to the position data of the travelling object, determining the historical passing time of the travelling object corresponding to the historical time batch through the target road section;
and determining an average value of the historical transit time of the advancing object to obtain the historical transit time of different historical time batches on the target road section.
In this embodiment, in order to obtain the historical transit time of the historical time batch corresponding to the estimated entry time of the target link, which can embody the historical transit feature, it is necessary to determine the historical transit times of different historical time batches on the target link first, and then obtain the historical transit time of the historical time batch corresponding to the estimated entry time according to the estimated entry time. When the historical passing time of different historical time batches on the target road section is determined, firstly acquiring position data of one or more traveling objects traveling on the target road section in the different historical time batches corresponding to the expected entering time to obtain a position data set, wherein the position data set comprises the position data of the one or more traveling objects; then, according to the position data of the one or more travelling objects in the position data set, the historical passing time used by the one or more travelling objects corresponding to the historical time batch for respectively passing through the target road section can be determined; and finally, determining the average value of the historical transit time of the one or more traveling objects to obtain the historical transit time of different historical time batches on the target road section.
In the same way, the traveling objects may have special situations such as faults and accidents, and the corresponding transit times also deviate from the median of the transit times, so in an embodiment of the disclosure, the average value of the historical transit times is determined after the deviation values in the historical transit times of the one or more traveling objects are removed. That is, in an embodiment of the present disclosure, the step of determining an average value of the historical transit time of the traveling object may include the steps of:
removing the deviation value in the historical transit time of the travelling object;
an average of the remaining historical transit times is determined.
The deviation value refers to the historical passing time that the difference value between the historical passing time value and the median of the historical passing time is larger than a first preset threshold value.
In an embodiment of the present disclosure, the step of calculating the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time to obtain the predicted traffic time of the target road section may include the following steps:
setting a first initial weight of real-time passing time and a second initial weight of historical passing time, wherein the sum of the first initial weight and the second initial weight is 1;
Determining a first product of the first initial weight and the real-time transit time;
determining a second product of the second initial weight and the historical transit time;
and determining the sum of the first product and the second product to obtain the estimated transit time of the target road section.
In this embodiment, the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time are weighted to obtain the predicted traffic time of the target road section, specifically, a first initial weight corresponding to the real-time traffic time and a second initial weight corresponding to the historical traffic time are set first, where the sum of the first initial weight and the second initial weight is 1, for example, if the first initial weight is denoted as w, the second initial weight may be denoted as 1-w; then determining a first product of the first initial weight and the real-time transit time; determining a second product of the second initial weight and the historical transit time; and finally, determining the sum of the first product and the second product to obtain the estimated transit time of the target road section.
In an embodiment of the present disclosure, the method may further include the steps of:
and correcting the first initial weight based on the speed curves of the target road sections on different historical time batches.
As mentioned above, the sudden change of traffic conditions caused by the situations of the peak, holiday, traffic accident and the like in the morning and evening affects the accuracy of the prediction of the time required for reaching the destination, and the data related to the situations of the peak, holiday and traffic accident in the morning and evening are different, for example, the peak, holiday and holiday belong to more regular situations, the real-time transit time has little significance for determining the predicted transit time, the historical transit time is more significant for determining the predicted transit time, and the historical transit time should be paid more attention to, so the determination weight of the historical transit time should become larger. Therefore, in order to improve the accuracy of the determination of the estimated transit time of the target road segment, in this embodiment, the first initial weight value is further corrected based on the speed profile of the target road segment over different historical time batches.
In this embodiment, the determining a first product of the first initial weight and the real-time transit time is specifically:
a first product of the corrected first initial weight and the real-time transit time is determined.
In an embodiment of the disclosure, the step of correcting the first initial weight based on the speed profile of the target road segment over different historical time batches may include the steps of:
Determining speed curves on different historical time batches of the target road section;
detecting and obtaining a speed mutation point set on the speed curve, wherein the speed mutation point set comprises a speed mutation point and a speed mutation point which are crossed;
determining a target historical time batch corresponding to the target real-time batch;
detecting the speed mutation time corresponding to the speed mutation point closest to the target historical time batch on the right side of the target historical time batch on the speed curve;
determining an absolute time difference value between the speed mutation time and the target historical time batch ending time, and determining a weight correction coefficient according to the absolute time difference value;
and correcting the first initial weight value to be the product of the first initial weight value and the weight value correction coefficient.
In this embodiment, the weights are corrected by means of speed curves over different historical time batches of the target road segment. Specifically: firstly, determining speed curves on different historical time batches of a target road section, wherein the speed curves consist of speed points corresponding to the different historical time batches on the target road section, and detecting a speed mutation point set on the speed curves by utilizing algorithms such as a mutation point detection algorithm based on a gradient correlation matrix determinant, wherein the speed mutation point set comprises speed mutation points and speed mutation drop points which cross; then determining a target historical time batch corresponding to the target real-time batch, wherein the corresponding time not only refers to the corresponding time but also includes the corresponding characteristic day, for example, if the target real-time batch is a time batch where the first monday in the morning is 10:01-10:02, the target historical time batch corresponding to the target real-time batch is a time batch where the first monday in the morning is 10:00-10:10; then detecting the right side of the target historical time batch on the speed curve, namely, the speed mutation time corresponding to the speed mutation point closest to the target historical time batch in future time relative to the target historical time batch; then determining an absolute time difference between the speed mutation time and the end time of the target historical time batch, and determining a weight correction coefficient according to the absolute time difference, for example, assuming that the target historical time batch is a time batch from 10:00 to 10:10 of the first monday in the last month, if the first speed mutation time is detected to be 10:40 of the first monday in the last month after 10:10 of the first monday in the last month, the absolute time difference between the speed mutation time 10:40 and the end time 10:10 of the target historical time batch is 30 minutes, and the weight correction coefficient can be set to be the absolute time difference/60, namely 30/60=0.5; and finally multiplying the first initial weight by the weight correction coefficient to realize the correction of the first initial weight.
It should be noted that, after the speed curves on the different historical time batches of the target road section are obtained initially, the speed rising point and the speed falling point on the speed curves may not cross, but two or more speed rising points are adjacent, or two or more speed falling points are adjacent, and considering that the inflection point of the speed curves is more significant for the correction of the weight, the local extremum method may be used to process the speed rising point and the speed falling point of the speed curves, so that the speed rising point and the speed falling point are in a cross situation.
In an embodiment of the disclosure, the step of determining the speed profile on different historical time batches of the target road segment may include the steps of:
determining the historical passing speeds of different historical time batches on the target road section based on the length of the target road section and the historical passing times of the different historical time batches on the target road section;
generating a speed curve on different historical time batches of the target road section based on the historical traffic speed;
and smoothing the speed curve.
In this embodiment, the historical traffic speeds corresponding to the different historical time batches on the target road section may be determined based on the length of the target road section and the historical traffic times of the different historical time batches on the target road section; taking the historical time batch or the ending time of the historical time batch as a horizontal axis and the historical passing speed corresponding to the historical time batch as a vertical axis, so as to obtain speed curves of different historical time batches of the target road section; in order to avoid the influence of abnormal speed points, the speed curve can be smoothed by smoothing methods such as C times of Gaussian smoothing.
The following are device embodiments of the present disclosure that may be used to perform method embodiments of the present disclosure.
Fig. 2 shows a block diagram of a time of arrival estimation apparatus according to an embodiment of the present disclosure, which may be implemented as part or all of an electronic device by software, hardware, or a combination of both. As shown in fig. 2, the arrival time estimating apparatus includes:
a determining module 201 configured to determine a target route, wherein the target route comprises one or more target road segments;
an estimation module 202 configured to estimate an estimated transit time of the target road segment based on the real-time transit time and the historical transit time corresponding to the target road segment;
an addition module 203 is configured to add the departure time of the target route to the estimated transit time of the target road segment included in the target route, so as to obtain the estimated arrival time of the target route.
As mentioned above, with the development and progress of society, more and more vehicles are on the road, and many users can view the navigation route and the time required to reach the destination through the application software with the map navigation function before going out. Because the conditions such as peaks in the morning and evening, holidays, traffic accidents and the like can cause abrupt change of the traffic condition of the road compared with the daily traffic condition of the road, the abrupt change of the traffic condition can influence the accuracy of the estimated time required to reach the destination. In turn, accuracy of the time estimate required to reach the destination can affect the user's travel decisions, and thus the traffic conditions. Therefore, it is an important issue to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the time required to reach the destination.
In view of the above, in this embodiment, an arrival time estimating apparatus is proposed that determines an estimated transit time of a target link based on a real-time transit time and a history transit time corresponding to the target link, and further obtains an arrival time estimated value of the target route. According to the technical scheme, the estimated accuracy of the time required for reaching the destination can be effectively improved, the influence of low estimated accuracy of the time of arrival on traffic conditions is avoided, the service quality of a traffic navigation service platform can be improved, and the use experience of a user is improved.
In an embodiment of the disclosure, the arrival time estimating apparatus may be implemented as a computer, a computing device, an electronic device, a server, a service cluster, or the like that may perform arrival time estimation.
Technical terms and technical features related to the above-mentioned device-related embodiments are the same as or similar to those mentioned in the above-mentioned method-related embodiments, and explanation of the technical terms and technical features related to the above-mentioned device-related embodiments may refer to the above explanation of the method-related embodiments, and are not repeated herein.
The present disclosure also discloses an electronic device, fig. 3 shows a block diagram of the electronic device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure, and as shown in fig. 3, the electronic device 300 includes a memory 301 and a processor 302; wherein,
the memory 301 is configured to store one or more computer instructions that are executed by the processor 302 to implement the above-described method steps.
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a computer system suitable for use in implementing a time of arrival estimation method according to an embodiment of the present disclosure.
As shown in fig. 4, the computer system 400 includes a processing unit 401 that can execute various processes in the above-described embodiments in accordance with a program stored in a Read Only Memory (ROM) 402 or a program loaded from a storage section 408 into a Random Access Memory (RAM) 403. In the RAM403, various programs and data required for the operation of the computer system 400 are also stored. The processing unit 401, ROM402, and RAM403 are connected to each other by a bus 404. An input/output (I/O) interface 405 is also connected to bus 404.
The following components are connected to the I/O interface 405: an input section 406 including a keyboard, a mouse, and the like; an output portion 407 including a Cathode Ray Tube (CRT), a Liquid Crystal Display (LCD), and the like, and a speaker, and the like; a storage section 408 including a hard disk or the like; and a communication section 409 including a network interface card such as a LAN card, a modem, or the like. The communication section 409 performs communication processing via a network such as the internet. The drive 410 is also connected to the I/O interface 405 as needed. A removable medium 411 such as a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a magneto-optical disk, a semiconductor memory, or the like is installed on the drive 410 as needed, so that a computer program read therefrom is installed into the storage section 408 as needed. The processing unit 401 may be implemented as a processing unit such as CPU, GPU, TPU, FPGA, NPU.
In particular, according to embodiments of the present disclosure, the methods described above may be implemented as computer software programs. For example, embodiments of the present disclosure include a computer program product comprising a computer program tangibly embodied on a medium readable thereby, the computer program comprising program code for performing the time of arrival estimation method. In such an embodiment, the computer program may be downloaded and installed from a network through the communication portion 409 and/or installed from the removable medium 411.
The flowcharts and block diagrams in the figures illustrate the architecture, functionality, and operation of possible implementations of systems, methods and computer program products according to various embodiments of the present disclosure. In this regard, each block in the flowchart or block diagrams may represent a module, segment, or portion of code, which comprises one or more executable instructions for implementing the specified logical function(s). It should also be noted that, in some alternative implementations, the functions noted in the block may occur out of the order noted in the figures. For example, two blocks shown in succession may, in fact, be executed substantially concurrently, or the blocks may sometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending upon the functionality involved. It will also be noted that each block of the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, and combinations of blocks in the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, can be implemented by special purpose hardware-based systems which perform the specified functions or acts, or combinations of special purpose hardware and computer instructions.
The units or modules described in the embodiments of the present disclosure may be implemented by software, or may be implemented by hardware. The units or modules described may also be provided in a processor, the names of which in some cases do not constitute a limitation of the unit or module itself.
As another aspect, the embodiments of the present disclosure also provide a computer-readable storage medium, which may be a computer-readable storage medium included in the apparatus described in the above-described embodiment; or may be a computer-readable storage medium, alone, that is not assembled into a device. The computer-readable storage medium stores one or more programs for use by one or more processors in performing the methods described in the embodiments of the present disclosure.
The foregoing description is only of the preferred embodiments of the present disclosure and description of the principles of the technology being employed. It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the scope of the invention in the embodiments of the present disclosure is not limited to the specific combination of the above technical features, but encompasses other technical features formed by any combination of the above technical features or their equivalents without departing from the inventive concept. Such as the technical solution formed by mutually replacing the above-mentioned features and the technical features with similar functions (but not limited to) disclosed in the embodiments of the present disclosure.
Claims (12)
1. A method of arrival time estimation, comprising:
determining a target route, wherein the target route comprises one or more target road segments;
estimating and obtaining the expected passing time of the target road section based on the real-time passing time and the historical passing time corresponding to the target road section, wherein the real-time passing time corresponding to the target road section is determined based on the position data of the traveling object traveling on the target road section in a target real-time batch to which the expected entering time of the target road section belongs, and the historical passing time corresponding to the target road section is determined based on the position data of the traveling object traveling on the target road section in the historical time batch corresponding to the expected entering time of the target road section;
and adding the departure time of the target route and the estimated passing time of the target road section contained in the target route to obtain the estimated arrival time of the target route.
2. The method of claim 1, the estimating the estimated transit time for the target road segment based on the real-time transit time and the historical transit time corresponding to the target road segment, comprising:
determining an estimated time of entry for the target segment;
Determining the real-time transit time of a target real-time batch of the target road section, to which the estimated entry time belongs;
acquiring the historical passing time of the historical time batch corresponding to the estimated entering time of the target road section;
and carrying out weighted calculation on the real-time traffic time and the historical traffic time to obtain the estimated traffic time of the target road section.
3. The method of claim 2, the determining a real-time transit time of a target real-time batch of the target road segment to which the projected entry time belongs, comprising:
acquiring position data of a traveling object traveling on the target road section in a target real-time batch to which the estimated entry time belongs;
determining real-time transit time for the traveling object to pass through the target road section according to the position data of the traveling object;
and determining an average value of the real-time transit time of the travelling object, and taking the average value as the real-time transit time of the target real-time batch of the target road section, to which the estimated entering time belongs.
4. A method according to claim 3, said determining an average of real-time transit times of the traveling objects comprising:
Removing the deviation value in the real-time passing time of the travelling object;
an average of the remaining real-time transit times is determined.
5. The method of claim 2, wherein obtaining a historical transit time for the historical time batch of the target road segment corresponding to the projected entry time comprises:
acquiring position data of a traveling object traveling on the target road section in different historical time batches corresponding to the estimated entry time;
according to the position data of the travelling object, determining the historical passing time of the travelling object corresponding to the historical time batch through the target road section;
and determining an average value of the historical transit time of the advancing object to obtain the historical transit time of different historical time batches on the target road section.
6. The method of claim 5, the determining an average of historical transit times for the traveling object comprising:
removing the deviation value in the historical transit time of the travelling object;
an average of the remaining historical transit times is determined.
7. The method of claim 5 or 6, wherein the weighting the real-time transit time and the historical transit time to obtain the estimated transit time of the target road segment comprises:
Setting a first initial weight of real-time passing time and a second initial weight of historical passing time, wherein the sum of the first initial weight and the second initial weight is 1;
determining a first product of the first initial weight and the real-time transit time;
determining a second product of the second initial weight and the historical transit time;
and determining the sum of the first product and the second product to obtain the estimated transit time of the target road section.
8. The method of claim 7, the method further comprising:
correcting the first initial weight based on the speed curves of the target road sections on different historical time batches;
the determining a first product of the first initial weight and the real-time transit time specifically includes:
a first product of the corrected first initial weight and the real-time transit time is determined.
9. The method of claim 8, the modifying the first initial weight based on a speed profile of the target road segment over different historical time batches, comprising:
determining speed curves on different historical time batches of the target road section;
detecting and obtaining a speed mutation point set on the speed curve, wherein the speed mutation point set comprises a speed mutation point and a speed mutation point which are crossed;
Determining a target historical time batch corresponding to the target real-time batch;
detecting the speed mutation time corresponding to the speed mutation point closest to the target historical time batch on the right side of the target historical time batch on the speed curve;
determining an absolute time difference value between the speed mutation time and the target historical time batch ending time, and determining a weight correction coefficient according to the absolute time difference value;
and correcting the first initial weight value to be the product of the first initial weight value and the weight value correction coefficient.
10. The method of claim 9, the determining a speed profile over different historical time batches of the target road segment, comprising:
determining the historical passing speeds of different historical time batches on the target road section based on the length of the target road section and the historical passing times of the different historical time batches on the target road section;
generating a speed curve on different historical time batches of the target road section based on the historical traffic speed;
and smoothing the speed curve.
11. An arrival time estimating apparatus, comprising:
a determination module configured to determine a target route, wherein the target route comprises one or more target road segments;
An estimation module configured to estimate a predicted traffic time of the target road segment based on a real-time traffic time and a historical traffic time corresponding to the target road segment, the real-time traffic time corresponding to the target road segment being determined based on position data of a traveling object traveling on the target road segment in a target real-time batch to which a predicted entry time of the target road segment belongs, the historical traffic time corresponding to the target road segment being determined based on position data of the traveling object traveling on the target road segment in the historical time batch corresponding to the predicted entry time of the target road segment;
and the addition module is configured to add the departure time of the target route and the estimated transit time of the target road section contained in the target route to obtain the estimated arrival time of the target route.
12. An electronic device comprising a memory and at least one processor; wherein the memory is for storing one or more computer instructions, wherein the one or more computer instructions are executed by the at least one processor to implement the method steps of any of claims 1-10.
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