CN114639237B - Method for analyzing influence effect after implementation of traffic safety management standard - Google Patents
Method for analyzing influence effect after implementation of traffic safety management standard Download PDFInfo
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
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- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
- G08G1/01—Detecting movement of traffic to be counted or controlled
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Abstract
The application relates to an influence effect analysis method after implementation of traffic safety management specifications. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring an experimental area and a control area; acquiring data of road safety factors correspondingly influencing each experimental area and each control area, acquiring road safety scores of each experimental area and each control area based on a Logit model, performing one-to-one matching on the experimental areas and the control areas based on a preset matching mode, and determining the control areas corresponding to the experimental areas; dividing the time period to be analyzed into time sections according to preset intervals; acquiring a first traffic accident quantity of each experimental area in each time section and a second traffic accident quantity of each experimental area corresponding to a control area in each time section; determining the influence effect of each time section after implementing the traffic safety management standard by adopting an influence effect analysis formula; further determining the influence effect generated by implementing the traffic safety management standard, and accurately judging the influence effect after implementing the traffic safety management policy.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of road traffic safety, in particular to an influence effect analysis method after implementation of traffic safety management regulations.
Background
With the development of social economy, the quantity of automobile reserves in society is continuously increased, and meanwhile, the problems of road safety and the like are also generated. In order to improve road safety, traffic safety regulations are being implemented in many countries and regions. The traffic safety management regulations reduce the generation of road conflicts by changing or regulating the traveling behaviors of pedestrians and drivers, thereby improving the road safety. Meanwhile, the effect of the traffic safety management standard on the road safety becomes a research hotspot in the related field.
However, at present, after the implementation of the traffic safety management regulations, the time influence after the implementation of the traffic safety management regulations is often ignored, and when the influence effect on the road safety after the implementation of the traffic safety management regulations is analyzed, the time effect is ignored, so that the accuracy of the analysis result of the influence effect is low.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, it is necessary to provide an impact effect analysis method after implementation of a traffic safety management rule, which can improve the accuracy of an impact effect analysis result and is low.
A method for analyzing the influence effect after the implementation of traffic safety management regulations comprises the following steps:
step 1: acquiring a traffic area set, wherein the traffic area set comprises experimental areas where traffic safety management regulations are implemented and control areas where the traffic safety management regulations are not implemented;
and 2, step: acquiring data of road safety influencing factors corresponding to each experimental area and each control area, wherein the road safety influencing factors comprise population density of a traffic cell where a stop is located, economic level of the traffic cell, daily average traffic volume of the traffic cell, road network density of the traffic cell, bus stop density of the traffic cell, track stop density of the traffic cell and traffic node density of the traffic cell;
and step 3: based on the Logit model, according to data of road safety factors correspondingly influenced by each experimental region and each control region, performing road safety scoring on the experimental region and the control region to obtain road safety scoring of each experimental region and each control region;
and 4, step 4: according to the road safety scores of the experiment areas and the control areas, one-to-one matching is carried out on the experiment areas and the control areas based on a preset matching mode, and the control areas corresponding to the experiment areas are determined;
and 5: dividing a time period to be analyzed into various time sections according to a preset interval, wherein the time period to be analyzed starts to be implemented by a traffic safety management standard as a starting time, and the ending time is a preset ending time;
step 6: acquiring a first traffic accident quantity of each experimental area in each time section and a second traffic accident quantity of a control area corresponding to each experimental area in each time section;
and 7: analyzing by adopting an influence effect analysis formula according to the first traffic accident quantity and the second traffic accident quantity of each time section, and determining the influence effect of each time section after the traffic safety management standard is implemented;
and 8: and analyzing according to the influence effect of each time section, and determining the influence effect generated by implementing the traffic safety management standard.
In one embodiment, the Logit model is:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
β 1 、β 2 、β 3 、β 3 、β 4 、β 5 、β 6 and beta 7 Is a regression coefficient, D is population density of a traffic cell where a station is located, GDP is economic level of the traffic cell, Q is daily traffic average traffic volume of the traffic cell, L is road network density of the traffic cell, B is bus station density of the traffic cell, R is track station density of the traffic cell, S is traffic node density of the traffic cell, p is track station density of the traffic cell i And the road safety score of the ith area is i belongs to A, and A is a traffic area set.
In one embodiment, the preset matching manner is as follows:
carrying out difference analysis on the road safety score of the experimental region and the road safety score of each control region, and determining the difference between the road safety score of the experimental region and the road safety score of each control region;
according to the difference value of the road safety score between the experimental region and each control region, selecting the control region with the smallest difference value of the road safety score of the experimental region from each control region as the corresponding control region of the experimental region;
and when more than two control areas with the minimum difference exist, randomly selecting one of the more than two control areas with the minimum difference as the corresponding control area of the experiment area.
In one embodiment, the influence effect analysis formula is:
wherein, ATT v Shows the effect of the influence of the time section v after the implementation of the traffic safety regulations, t kv Represents the number of traffic accidents in the kth experimental area, t, in the time section v jv The number of traffic accidents in the time zone v of the control area j corresponding to the experimental area k is shown, n is the number of experimental areas, m is the number of control areas corresponding to the experimental area, and n = m.
According to the method for analyzing the influence effect after the implementation of the traffic safety management standard, a traffic area set is obtained and comprises an experiment area and a control area; acquiring data of road safety factors correspondingly influenced by each experimental region and each control region, and performing road safety scoring on the experimental regions and the control regions according to the data of the road safety factors correspondingly influenced by each experimental region and each control region on the basis of the Logit model to obtain the road safety scoring of each experimental region and each control region; according to the road safety scores of the experiment areas and the control areas, one-to-one matching is carried out on the experiment areas and the control areas based on a preset matching mode, and the control areas corresponding to the experiment areas are determined; dividing a time period to be analyzed into various time sections according to a preset interval, wherein the time period to be analyzed starts to be implemented by a traffic safety management standard as a starting time, and the ending time is a preset ending time; acquiring a first traffic accident quantity of each experimental area in each time section and a second traffic accident quantity of a control area corresponding to each experimental area in each time section; analyzing by adopting an influence effect analysis formula according to the first traffic accident quantity and the second traffic accident quantity of each time section, and determining the influence effect of each time section after the traffic safety management standard is implemented; and analyzing according to the influence effect of each time section, and determining the influence effect generated by implementing the traffic safety management standard. And a time effect is introduced, so that the influence effect after the implementation of the traffic safety management policy can be accurately judged.
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Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart illustrating an impact effect analysis method after implementation of a traffic safety management rule in one embodiment.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more apparent, the present application is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application.
In an embodiment, as shown in fig. 1, a method for analyzing an effect of an impact after implementation of a traffic safety management rule is provided, which is described by taking an example that the method is applied to a terminal, and includes the following steps:
step 1: and acquiring a traffic area set, wherein the traffic area set comprises each experimental area for implementing the traffic safety management standard and each control area for not implementing the traffic safety management standard.
The number of the experimental areas and the number of the control areas can be selected as required based on the number of the experimental areas being more than or equal to the number of the control areas, for example: the ratio of the number of experimental regions to the number of control regions is 1.
And 2, step: and acquiring data of corresponding road safety influencing factors of each experimental area and each control area, wherein the road safety influencing factors comprise population density of a traffic district where a stop is located, economic level of the traffic district, daily traffic average traffic volume of the traffic district, road network density of the traffic district, bus stop density of the traffic district, track stop density of the traffic district and traffic node density of the traffic district.
And 3, step 3: and based on the Logit model, according to the data of the road safety factors correspondingly influenced by each experimental area and each control area, performing road safety scoring on the experimental areas and the control areas to obtain the road safety scoring of each experimental area and each control area.
And 4, step 4: and performing one-to-one matching on the experimental regions and the control regions based on a preset matching mode according to the road safety scores of the experimental regions and the control regions, and determining the control regions corresponding to the experimental regions.
And 5: and dividing the time period to be analyzed into various time sections according to preset intervals, wherein the time period to be analyzed starts to be implemented by a traffic safety management standard as a starting time, and the ending time is preset ending time.
The preset interval can be set according to actual conditions, such as one month, one week, two months, and the like. The preset ending time refers to that the preset ending time can be set according to analysis requirements, assuming that the starting time of the implementation of the traffic safety management specification is 1 month and 1 day in 2020, and the interval of the time period to be analyzed is set to one year, the time period to be analyzed is 1 month and 1 day in 2020, to 1 month and 1 day in 2021, and the 1 month and 1 day in 2021 is the ending time of the time period to be analyzed, and if the preset interval is set to one month, the time period to be analyzed is divided into 12 time segments.
Step 6: and acquiring the first traffic accident quantity of each experimental area in each time section and the second traffic accident quantity of the control area corresponding to each experimental area in each time section.
And 7: and analyzing by adopting an influence effect analysis formula according to the first traffic accident quantity and the second traffic accident quantity of each time section, and determining the influence effect of each time section after implementing the traffic safety management standard.
And 8: and analyzing according to the influence effect of each time zone, and determining the influence effect generated by implementing the traffic safety management standard.
The analysis time period is 1 month 1 day in 2020 to 1 month 1 day in 2021 year, the preset interval is set to one month as an example, the analysis time period is divided into 12 time sections, each time section corresponds to an influence effect after the implementation of the traffic safety management standard, the stability of the generated influence effect can be analyzed through the influence effect of each time section after the implementation of the traffic safety management standard, the influence effect of which the generated influence effect tends to be stable is used as the influence effect generated by the implementation of the traffic safety management standard, and the influence effect after the implementation of the traffic safety management policy can be more accurately judged.
According to the method for analyzing the influence effect after the implementation of the traffic safety management standard, a traffic area set is obtained and comprises an experiment area and a control area; acquiring data of road safety factors correspondingly influenced by each experimental area and each control area, and scoring the experimental areas and the control areas according to the data of the road safety factors correspondingly influenced by each experimental area and each control area on the basis of a Logit model to obtain road safety scores of each experimental area and each control area; according to the road safety scores of the experimental areas and the control areas, performing one-to-one matching on the experimental areas and the control areas based on a preset matching mode, and determining the control areas corresponding to the experimental areas; dividing the time period to be analyzed into various time sections according to a preset interval, wherein the time period to be analyzed starts to be implemented by a traffic safety management standard as a starting time, and the ending time is a preset ending time; acquiring a first traffic accident quantity of each experimental area in each time section and a second traffic accident quantity of a control area corresponding to each experimental area in each time section; analyzing by adopting an influence effect analysis formula according to the first traffic accident quantity and the second traffic accident quantity of each time zone, and determining the influence effect of each time zone after implementing a traffic safety management standard; and analyzing according to the influence effect of each time zone, and determining the influence effect generated by implementing the traffic safety management standard. And a time effect is introduced, so that the influence effect after the implementation of the traffic safety management policy can be accurately judged.
In one embodiment, the Logit model is:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
β 1 、β 2 、β 3 、β 3 、β 4 、β 5 、β 6 and beta 7 Is a regression coefficient, D is population density of a traffic cell where a station is located, GDP is economic level of the traffic cell, Q is daily traffic average traffic volume of the traffic cell, L is road network density of the traffic cell, B is bus station density of the traffic cell, R is track station density of the traffic cell, S is traffic node density of the traffic cell, p is track station density of the traffic cell i And the road safety score of the ith area is set, i belongs to A, and A is a traffic area set.
In one embodiment, the preset matching manner is as follows:
carrying out difference analysis on the road safety score of the experimental area and the road safety score of each control area, and determining the difference of the road safety score of the experimental area and the road safety score of each control area;
selecting a control area with the smallest difference value with the road safety score of the experiment area from the control areas as a corresponding control area of the experiment area according to the difference value of the road safety score of the experiment area and the road safety score of each control area;
and when more than two control areas with the minimum difference exist, randomly selecting one of the more than two control areas with the minimum difference as the corresponding control area of the experiment area.
In one embodiment, the impact effect analysis formula is:
wherein, ATT v Shows the effect of the influence of the time section v after the implementation of the traffic safety regulations, t kv Representing a traffic accident in the kth experimental zone within the time zone vNumber, t jv The number of traffic accidents in the time zone v of the control area j corresponding to the experimental area k is shown, n is the number of experimental areas, m is the number of control areas corresponding to the experimental area, and n = m.
In one embodiment, a method for analyzing an influence effect after implementation of a traffic safety management specification is provided, and the specific embodiment is described as follows:
1) Determining an experimental area and a control area: setting an area for implementing a traffic safety management policy as an experimental area, and setting an area for not implementing the traffic safety management policy as a control area, wherein the ratio of the experimental area to the control area is 1:10.
2) Acquiring data influencing road safety factors: after accurate investigation methods and related department research, data affecting road safety factors in the experimental area and the control area are obtained, as shown in table 1.
Table 1 data collection statistics table
3) And (3) dividing time sections, namely dividing the time sections by taking the implementation of the traffic safety management policy as a starting point and taking months as units, wherein the time period to be analyzed of the experimental case is 1 year, and the time period is divided into 12 months.
4) Scoring the experimental region and the control region based on the Logit model (i.e.: road safety score), taking the experimental area A1 as an example, the formula is as follows,
5) The one-to-one matching of the experimental area and the control area is realized, because the case is performed based on the assumed conditions, and the experimental area A1 and the control area C1 are assumed to be successfully matched, the experimental area A1 and the control area C1 need to satisfy the following conditions,
p A1 -p A2 ＝min(p A1 -P ci )
6) Respectively calculating the traffic accident quantity change namely ATT in the experimental area A1 and the control area C1 in each month v (v =1,2 \823012; 12), for example in the first month,
according to the month of v =1,2 \823012and so on, the influence effect of each time zone after the traffic safety management regulations are implemented can be determined.
7) And analyzing according to the influence effect of each time zone, and determining the influence effect generated by implementing the traffic safety management standard.
It should be understood that, although the steps in the flowchart of fig. 1 are shown in order as indicated by the arrows, the steps are not necessarily performed in order as indicated by the arrows. The steps are not limited to being performed in the exact order illustrated and, unless explicitly stated herein, may be performed in other orders. Moreover, at least some of the steps in fig. 1 may include multiple sub-steps or multiple stages that are not necessarily performed at the same time, but may be performed at different times, and the order of performing the sub-steps or stages is not necessarily sequential, but may be performed alternately or alternately with other steps or at least some of the sub-steps or stages of other steps.
The technical features of the above embodiments can be arbitrarily combined, and for the sake of brevity, all possible combinations of the technical features in the above embodiments are not described, but should be considered as the scope of the present specification as long as there is no contradiction between the combinations of the technical features.
The above-mentioned embodiments only express several embodiments of the present application, and the description thereof is specific and detailed, but not to be understood as limiting the scope of the invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the concept of the present application, which falls within the scope of protection of the present application. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent application shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (1)
1. A method for analyzing influence effect after implementation of traffic safety management regulations is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: acquiring a traffic area set, wherein the traffic area set comprises experimental areas where traffic safety management regulations are implemented and control areas where the traffic safety management regulations are not implemented;
step 2: acquiring data of corresponding influence road safety factors of each experiment area and each control area, wherein the influence road safety factors comprise population density of a traffic district where a stop is located, economic level of the traffic district, daily traffic average traffic volume of the traffic district, road network density of the traffic district, bus stop density of the traffic district, track stop density of the traffic district and traffic node density of the traffic district;
and step 3: based on a Logit model, according to data of road safety factors correspondingly influenced by each experimental region and each control region, performing road safety scoring on the experimental region and the control region to obtain the road safety scoring of each experimental region and each control region;
and 4, step 4: according to the road safety scores of the experiment areas and the control areas, performing one-to-one matching on the experiment areas and the control areas based on a preset matching mode, and determining the control areas corresponding to the experiment areas;
and 5: dividing a time period to be analyzed into various time sections according to a preset interval, wherein the time period to be analyzed is implemented by taking a traffic safety management standard as a starting time, and the ending time is a preset ending time;
step 6: acquiring a first traffic accident quantity of each experimental area in each time section and a second traffic accident quantity of a control area corresponding to each experimental area in each time section;
and 7: analyzing by adopting an influence effect analysis formula according to the first traffic accident quantity and the second traffic accident quantity of each time section, and determining the influence effect of each time section after the traffic safety management standard is implemented;
and step 8: analyzing according to the influence effect of each time section, and determining the influence effect generated by implementing the traffic safety management standard;
the Logit model is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
β 1 、β 2 、β 3 、β 3 、β 4 、β 5 、β 6 and beta 7 Is a regression coefficient, D is population density of a traffic cell where a station is located, GDP is economic level of the traffic cell, Q is daily traffic average traffic volume of the traffic cell, L is road network density of the traffic cell, B is bus station density of the traffic cell, R is track station density of the traffic cell, S is traffic node density of the traffic cell, p is track station density of the traffic cell i The road safety score is the road safety score of the ith area, i belongs to A, and A is a traffic area set;
the preset matching mode is as follows:
performing difference analysis on the road safety score of the experimental region and the road safety score of each control region, and determining the difference between the road safety score of the experimental region and the road safety score of each control region;
selecting a control area with the smallest difference value with the road safety score of the experiment area from the control areas as a corresponding control area of the experiment area according to the difference value of the road safety score of the experiment area and the road safety score of each control area;
when more than two control areas with the minimum difference exist, randomly selecting one of the more than two control areas with the minimum difference as the corresponding control area of the experiment area;
the analysis formula of the influence effect is as follows:
wherein, ATT v Representing the effect of the influence of the time section v after the implementation of the traffic safety management norm, t kv Represents the number of traffic accidents in the kth experimental area, t, in the time section v jv The number of traffic accidents in the time zone v of the control area j corresponding to the experimental area k is shown, n is the number of experimental areas, m is the number of control areas corresponding to the experimental area, and n = m.
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