CN114611847B - Method and device for generating provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan - Google Patents

Method and device for generating provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan Download PDF

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CN114611847B
CN114611847B CN202210525676.7A CN202210525676A CN114611847B CN 114611847 B CN114611847 B CN 114611847B CN 202210525676 A CN202210525676 A CN 202210525676A CN 114611847 B CN114611847 B CN 114611847B
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王浩浩
朱涛
陈青
别佩
王宁
黄远明
林少华
赵唯嘉
王宣定
吴明兴
陈雨果
杨塞特
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Guangdong Electric Power Transaction Center Co ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a device for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan, which are used for determining monthly plan deviation rates and time-sharing plan deviation rates of various types of priority power generation through historical power electric quantity data corresponding to various types of priority power generation, providing an effective basis for the follow-up correction of monthly plan electric quantity and time-sharing plan electric quantity of non-adjustable priority power generation, and designing methods for acquiring monthly plan electric quantity of intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation and time-sharing plan electric quantity of intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation for intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation respectively based on a preset initial classification strategy and a preset secondary distribution strategy, so that an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan is generated, the orderly operation of a power market is guaranteed, and meanwhile, the electric quantity scheduling accuracy of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan is improved. Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme of the invention can improve the accuracy of the electric quantity scheduling of the provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan and simultaneously can ensure the effective operation space of the electric power market.

Description

Method and device for generating provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of big data, in particular to a method and a device for generating an provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan.
Background
At present, the generation plan of the unit is usually considered from the aspects of generation cost, low carbon emission and the like, but the difference characteristic between a market unit and a non-market unit in a spot market environment is not considered, so that the generation plan of the unit is difficult to adapt to the future development trend. On the other hand, the existing unit power generation planning method cannot consider the interaction between the plan and the market, and cannot provide gain guarantee for the effective operation of the spot market.
And most of the modes for decomposing the generating curves of the units stay in the economic dispatching and the safe dispatching in the traditional sense, and under the operation of double-track systems, the generating planning modes of different types of units have difference, so that mismatching of 'planned electricity' and 'market electricity' is easily caused, unbalanced cost is generated in the market operation process, and the market competition space is squeezed. Therefore, an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling planning strategy under the dual-track planning and market system is needed to provide scheduling basis for intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation, improve the power scheduling accuracy of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan and guarantee the effective operation space of the power market.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: the method and the device for generating the provincial adjustable priority power generation dispatching plan are provided, so that the accuracy of electric quantity dispatching of the provincial adjustable priority power generation dispatching plan is improved, and the guarantee is provided for the ordered operation of the electric power market.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides a method for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan, which comprises the following steps:
according to the power generation characteristics, the priority power generation is divided into non-adjustable priority power generation and intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation;
respectively calculating historical monthly plan deviation rates of various priority power generation according to historical monthly plan electric quantity and historical monthly actual electric quantity corresponding to various priority power generation, and generating monthly plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various priority power generation according to distribution characteristics of the historical monthly plan deviation rates;
acquiring a monthly average risk value of the monthly plan deviation rate risk data set according to a first preset confidence coefficient, and acquiring a monthly plan deviation rate based on the monthly average risk value, wherein the first preset confidence coefficient c is the value of the c th percentile in the monthly plan deviation rate risk data set;
meanwhile, according to historical time-sharing plan electric quantity and historical time-sharing actual electric quantity corresponding to various types of priority power generation, historical time-sharing plan deviation rates of various types of priority power generation are respectively calculated, and time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various types of priority power generation are generated according to distribution characteristics of the historical time-sharing plan deviation rates;
according to a second preset confidence coefficient, obtaining a time-sharing average risk value of the time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data set, and obtaining a time-sharing plan deviation rate based on the time-sharing average risk value, wherein the second preset confidence coefficient
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
Planning deviation Rate Risk data set for timesharing
Figure 481073DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
The value of the percentile;
calculating a monthly plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the monthly plan deviation rate, and carrying out monthly distribution on the annual total quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset monthly initial distribution strategy and a monthly secondary distribution strategy to obtain monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation;
calculating a time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the time-sharing plan deviation rate, and performing time-sharing power generation output distribution on the monthly plan electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation based on a preset time-sharing power generation output initial distribution strategy and a time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution strategy to obtain a time-sharing plan electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation;
and generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan by combining the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation and the time-sharing plan electric quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation.
In a possible implementation manner, the preset monthly initial allocation policy specifically includes:
acquiring monthly predicted electric quantity of a guaranteed user, and calculating a first difference between the monthly predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user and the monthly planned electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation;
according to the first difference, monthly initial distribution is carried out on annual electric quantity of the provincial adjustable power generation with priority.
In a possible implementation manner, the monthly secondary allocation policy specifically includes:
acquiring each month residual power generation space, and calculating a first ratio of each month residual power generation space in the total month residual power generation space;
meanwhile, the residual annual electric quantity of the province-wide adjustable priority power generation after monthly initial distribution is calculated;
and according to the first proportion, carrying out monthly secondary distribution on the surplus annual electric quantity which can be adjusted and generated preferentially in the province.
In a possible implementation manner, the preset initial allocation strategy for time-sharing generated output specifically includes:
acquiring the time-sharing power generation output predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user, and calculating a second difference between the time-sharing power generation output predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user and the time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation;
and according to the second difference, performing time-sharing power generation output initial distribution on the monthly planned electric quantity of the provincial interior adjustable priority power generation.
In a possible implementation manner, the strategy for secondarily distributing the time-sharing generated output is specifically as follows:
acquiring the residual generating space of each time period, and calculating a second ratio of the residual generating space of each time period to the residual generating space of the total time period;
meanwhile, calculating the residual time-sharing power generation total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation after the time-sharing power generation output is initially distributed;
and according to the second proportion, performing secondary distribution of the time-sharing power generation output on the residual time-sharing power generation total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a device for generating the provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan, which comprises the following components: the system comprises a priority power generation classification module, a plan deviation rate acquisition module, a monthly plan electric quantity acquisition module, a time-sharing plan electric quantity acquisition module and an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan generation module;
the priority power generation classification module is used for classifying priority power generation into non-adjustable priority power generation and intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation according to power generation characteristics;
the system comprises a planning deviation rate acquisition module, a planning deviation rate calculation module and a planning deviation rate calculation module, wherein the planning deviation rate acquisition module is used for respectively calculating historical monthly planning deviation rates of various types of priority power generation according to historical monthly planning electric quantity and historical monthly actual electric quantity corresponding to various types of priority power generation and generating monthly planning deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various types of priority power generation according to distribution characteristics of the historical monthly planning deviation rates; acquiring a monthly average risk value of the monthly plan deviation rate risk data set according to a first preset confidence coefficient, and acquiring a monthly plan deviation rate based on the monthly average risk value, wherein the first preset confidence coefficient c is the value of the c th percentile in the monthly plan deviation rate risk data set;
the plan deviation rate acquisition module is further used for respectively calculating historical time-sharing plan deviation rates of various priority power generations according to historical time-sharing plan electric quantity and historical time-sharing actual electric quantity corresponding to the various priority power generations, and generating time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to the various priority power generations according to distribution characteristics of the historical time-sharing plan deviation rates; according to the second preset confidenceObtaining the time-sharing average risk value of the time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data set, and obtaining the time-sharing plan deviation rate based on the time-sharing average risk value, wherein the second preset confidence coefficient
Figure 259673DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
For timesharing plan deviation Rate Risk data set
Figure 907561DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
The value of the percentile;
the monthly plan electric quantity obtaining module is used for calculating a monthly plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the monthly plan deviation ratio, and carrying out monthly distribution on the annual total quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset monthly initial distribution strategy and a monthly secondary distribution strategy to obtain the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation;
the time-sharing plan electric quantity obtaining module is used for calculating a time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the time-sharing plan deviation ratio, and performing time-sharing power generation output distribution on monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset time-sharing power generation output initial distribution strategy and a time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution strategy to obtain intra-province adjustable priority power generation time-sharing plan electric quantity;
and the provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan generating module is used for generating the provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan by combining the monthly scheduling electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation and the time-sharing scheduling electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation.
In a possible implementation manner, the preset monthly initial allocation strategy in the monthly plan electric quantity module specifically includes:
acquiring monthly predicted electric quantity of a guaranteed user, and calculating a first difference between the monthly predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user and a monthly plan electric quantity correction value of the unadjustable priority power generation;
according to the first difference, monthly initial distribution is carried out on the annual electric quantity of the provincial adjustable power generation with priority.
In a possible implementation manner, the monthly secondary allocation strategy in the monthly plan electric quantity module specifically includes:
acquiring each month residual power generation space, and calculating a first ratio of each month residual power generation space in the total month residual power generation space;
meanwhile, the residual annual electric quantity of the province-wide adjustable priority power generation after monthly initial distribution is calculated;
and according to the first proportion, carrying out monthly secondary distribution on the surplus annual electric quantity which can be adjusted and generated preferentially in the province.
In a possible implementation manner, the preset time-sharing power generation output initial allocation strategy in the time-sharing planned electric quantity acquisition module specifically includes:
acquiring the time-sharing power generation output predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user, and calculating a second difference between the time-sharing power generation output predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user and the time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation;
and according to the second difference, performing time-sharing power generation output initial distribution on the monthly planned electric quantity of the provincial interior adjustable priority power generation.
In a possible implementation manner, the strategy for time-sharing power generation and output secondary distribution in the time-sharing planned electric quantity acquisition module specifically includes:
acquiring the residual generating space of each time period, and calculating a second ratio of the residual generating space of each time period to the residual generating space of the total time period;
meanwhile, calculating the residual time-sharing power generation total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation after the time-sharing power generation output is initially distributed;
and according to the second proportion, performing secondary distribution of the time-sharing power generation output on the residual time-sharing power generation total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation.
An embodiment of the present invention further provides a terminal device, which includes a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, where the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the method for generating the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan according to any one of the above.
An embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, where the computer-readable storage medium includes a stored computer program, and when the computer program runs, a device in which the computer-readable storage medium is located is controlled to execute the method for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan according to any one of the above.
Compared with the prior art, the method and the device for generating the provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan have the following beneficial effects:
according to historical electric power quantity data corresponding to various types of priority power generation, monthly plan deviation rates and time-sharing plan deviation rates of various types of priority power generation are determined, effective basis is provided for follow-up correction of monthly plan electric quantity and time-sharing plan electric quantity of non-adjustable priority power generation, a method for acquiring monthly plan electric quantity of intra-province adjustable priority power generation and time-sharing plan electric quantity of intra-province adjustable priority power generation is designed for intra-province adjustable priority power generation respectively, and monthly distribution is performed on annual total quantity of intra-province adjustable priority power generation on the basis of a preset monthly initial distribution strategy and a monthly secondary distribution strategy to obtain monthly plan electric quantity of intra-province adjustable priority power generation; and performing time-sharing power generation output distribution on the monthly planned electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation based on a preset time-sharing power generation output initial distribution strategy and a time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution strategy to obtain the time-sharing planned electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation, so that an provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan is generated, guarantee is provided for the ordered operation of the power market, and meanwhile, the electric quantity scheduling accuracy of the provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan is improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart diagram illustrating an embodiment of a method for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation dispatching plan according to the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of a device for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of an embodiment of a method for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan according to the present invention, as shown in fig. 1, the method includes steps 101 to 105, which are as follows:
step 101: and according to the power generation characteristics, the priority power generation is divided into non-adjustable priority power generation and intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation.
In one embodiment, the priority power generation may be classified into non-adjustable priority power generation and intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation according to the characteristics of the priority power generation. The power generation with the unadjustable priority comprises power generation with the unadjustable priority outside the province and power generation with the unadjustable priority inside the province; the out-of-province non-adjustable priority power generation refers to a priority power generation power supply which cannot be changed by the provincial dispatching, wherein power generation output plans of external hydropower and the like are determined by the superior dispatching; the power generation with priority not adjustable in province refers to a priority power generation source, such as wind power, photovoltaic and the like, of which the power generation output curve cannot be changed by a provincial dispatching mechanism due to reasons such as reserve consumption and the like; the provincial adjustable priority power generation refers to a priority power generation power supply such as a gas turbine unit and the like, which can arrange power generation output by a scheduling mechanism according to the operation needs of a power grid.
Step 102: and acquiring and respectively calculating historical monthly plan deviation rates and historical time-sharing plan deviation rates of various types of priority power generation according to historical electric power quantity data corresponding to various types of priority power generation, and acquiring the monthly plan deviation rates and the time-sharing plan deviation rates.
In one embodiment, historical monthly plan electric quantity and historical monthly actual electric quantity corresponding to various types of priority power generation are acquired, the historical monthly plan electric quantity and the historical monthly actual electric quantity are substituted into a historical monthly plan deviation rate calculation formula, and historical monthly plan deviation rates of various types of priority power generation are calculated respectively, wherein the historical monthly plan deviation rate calculation formula is as follows:
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
wherein,
Figure 695389DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
is composed of
Figure 128644DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
The first stage corresponding to various types of preferential power generation is established in the month
Figure 78145DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
Historical monthly plan deviation rate for the month,
Figure 449215DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
Planning the electric quantity for the historical monthly degree,
Figure 775154DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
The electricity generated for the actual month,
Figure 735020DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
Is shown as
Figure 980056DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
Class-first power generation sources;
Figure 228635DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
respectively corresponding to out-of-province non-adjustable priority power generation, in-province non-adjustable priority power generation and in-province adjustable priority power generation;
Figure 469517DEST_PATH_IMAGE013
corresponding to different months;
Figure 283889DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
the planning month is represented, and the process of continuously updating and calculating data in the year can be reflected;
Figure 840773DEST_PATH_IMAGE015
indicating the year.
In an embodiment, when there are less data of the acquired historical monthly plan electric quantity and the historical monthly actual electric quantity, so that the calculated historical monthly plan deviation rate data is less, based on the acquired historical monthly plan deviation rate data, according to a preset historical monthly plan deviation rate distribution calculation formula, different years can be calculated
Figure 435702DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
In the process
Figure 837864DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
Obtained in the month
Figure 850951DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
Distribution of historical monthly plan deviation rates for the months; the preset calculation formula of the distribution of the monthly plan deviation ratio of the history is as follows:
Figure 375473DEST_PATH_IMAGE017
Figure 333065DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
wherein,
Figure 929131DEST_PATH_IMAGE019
Figure 655779DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
mathematical expectations and variances, respectively, for historical monthly plan deviation rates.
In one embodiment, based on the distribution of the historical monthly priority power generation plan deviation rates, a large amount of historical monthly plan deviation rate data satisfying the normal distribution can be calculated and obtained, and a set of S historical monthly plan deviation rates satisfying the normal distribution is formed, wherein a formula for obtaining a large amount of historical monthly plan deviation rate data satisfying the normal distribution is calculated as follows:
Figure 662787DEST_PATH_IMAGE021
Figure 169992DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
wherein,
Figure 179536DEST_PATH_IMAGE023
planning deviation rate for a single historical month according to the normal distribution,
Figure 885324DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
A set of deviation rates is planned for the historical month.
In one embodiment, historical monthly plan deviation rates are aggregated
Figure 954911DEST_PATH_IMAGE025
The middle data are sequentially arranged from small to large to generate monthly plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various types of priority power generation
Figure 683832DEST_PATH_IMAGE026
In one embodiment, the monthly plan deviation rate is determined by setting a first preset confidence c; specifically, a first preset confidence coefficient c is set and based on, wherein the first preset confidence coefficient c is a monthly planned deviation rate risk data set
Figure 372434DEST_PATH_IMAGE027
The value of the middle c percentile, and the monthly plan deviation rate risk value under the first preset confidence coefficient c meet the following conditions:
Figure 73674DEST_PATH_IMAGE028
wherein,
Figure 173217DEST_PATH_IMAGE029
representing historical monthly plan deviation rates
Figure 858276DEST_PATH_IMAGE030
At the upper limit of deviation rate fluctuation
Figure 586454DEST_PATH_IMAGE031
A probability of being inside;
Figure 204517DEST_PATH_IMAGE032
is given a first preset confidence c in
Figure 350328DEST_PATH_IMAGE033
Month gets first
Figure 381738DEST_PATH_IMAGE034
Historical monthly plan deviation rate risk values for monthly priority power generation plans.
Moment of recording
Figure 271196DEST_PATH_IMAGE032
Corresponding monthly planned deviation rate risk data set
Figure 822394DEST_PATH_IMAGE035
Data set number one
Figure 201423DEST_PATH_IMAGE036
For each data, the monthly average risk value of the monthly plan deviation ratio risk data set at the first preset confidence c may be represented as:
Figure 595495DEST_PATH_IMAGE037
and determining the monthly average risk value of the monthly plan deviation rate risk data set under the first preset confidence coefficient c as the current monthly plan deviation rate
Figure 413279DEST_PATH_IMAGE038
In one embodiment, according to historical time-sharing plan electric quantity and historical time-sharing actual electric quantity corresponding to various types of priority power generation, the historical time-sharing plan electric quantity and the historical time-sharing actual electric quantity are substituted into a historical time-sharing plan deviation rate calculation formula, historical time-sharing plan deviation rates of various types of priority power generation are calculated respectively, and time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various types of priority power generation are generated according to distribution characteristics of the historical time-sharing plan deviation rates; the historical time-sharing plan deviation ratio calculation formula is as follows:
Figure 943617DEST_PATH_IMAGE039
wherein,
Figure 70711DEST_PATH_IMAGE040
is composed of
Figure 483238DEST_PATH_IMAGE041
The first stage corresponding to various types of preferential power generation is established in time period
Figure 980078DEST_PATH_IMAGE042
First of month
Figure 489557DEST_PATH_IMAGE043
Historical time-sharing plan deviation rate of time periods,
Figure 413650DEST_PATH_IMAGE044
Planning the electric quantity for historical time-sharing,
Figure 579053DEST_PATH_IMAGE045
The electricity generated by the time-sharing,
Figure 489371DEST_PATH_IMAGE046
A planning period of time is shown as,
Figure 728722DEST_PATH_IMAGE047
can reflect continuous data updating and counting in the monthCalculating;
Figure 948351DEST_PATH_IMAGE048
showing the time periods within the month, in the present embodiment
Figure 335470DEST_PATH_IMAGE049
As a time interval.
In an embodiment, when there are less data of the acquired historical time-sharing planned electric quantity and the historical time-sharing actual electric quantity, so that the calculated historical time-sharing planned deviation rate data is less, the calculation formula of the deviation rate distribution of the time-sharing plan for different years can be used for calculating the deviation rate data of the time-sharing plan for different years according to the acquired historical time-sharing planned deviation rate data
Figure 174113DEST_PATH_IMAGE050
In the process
Figure 187679DEST_PATH_IMAGE051
Time interval is set to
Figure 187996DEST_PATH_IMAGE043
Distribution of historical time-sharing plan deviation rates for the time periods; the preset historical time-sharing plan deviation rate distribution calculation formula is as follows:
Figure 390307DEST_PATH_IMAGE052
Figure 563800DEST_PATH_IMAGE053
wherein,
Figure 43323DEST_PATH_IMAGE054
the mathematical expectation and variance of the historical time-share plan deviation ratio, respectively.
In one embodiment, based on the distribution of the historical time-sharing priority power generation plan deviation rates, a large amount of historical time-sharing plan deviation rate data meeting the normal distribution can be calculated and obtained, and a set of S historical time-sharing plan deviation rates meeting the normal distribution is formed, wherein a formula for calculating and obtaining a large amount of historical time-sharing plan deviation rate data meeting the normal distribution is as follows:
Figure 89907DEST_PATH_IMAGE055
wherein,
Figure 654881DEST_PATH_IMAGE056
planning deviation rate for single historical time sharing conforming to the normal distribution,
Figure 632064DEST_PATH_IMAGE057
A set of deviation ratios is planned for historical timesharing.
In one embodiment, historical timesharing plan deviation ratios are aggregated
Figure 356306DEST_PATH_IMAGE058
The medium data are sequentially arranged from small to large to generate historical time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various types of priority power generation
Figure 964005DEST_PATH_IMAGE059
In one embodiment, the confidence level is set to a second predetermined level
Figure 859018DEST_PATH_IMAGE060
To determine a time-of-use plan deviation ratio; specifically, setting and based on a second predetermined confidence level
Figure 843154DEST_PATH_IMAGE060
Wherein the second preset confidence level
Figure 94007DEST_PATH_IMAGE060
Planning deviation rate risk data sets for time sharing
Figure 997241DEST_PATH_IMAGE061
To middle
Figure 271228DEST_PATH_IMAGE060
Value of percentile at second preset confidence
Figure 403263DEST_PATH_IMAGE060
The following time-sharing plan deviation rate risk values satisfy the following conditions:
Figure 711884DEST_PATH_IMAGE062
wherein,
Figure 458124DEST_PATH_IMAGE063
representing historical timesharing plan deviation rates
Figure 609619DEST_PATH_IMAGE064
At the upper limit of deviation rate fluctuation
Figure 404400DEST_PATH_IMAGE065
A probability of being inside;
Figure 209938DEST_PATH_IMAGE066
is given a second preset confidence
Figure 127079DEST_PATH_IMAGE060
Below, in
Figure 375657DEST_PATH_IMAGE067
Time period is obtained
Figure 364342DEST_PATH_IMAGE068
A historical timesharing plan deviation rate risk value for the time-slot first power generation plan.
Moment of recording
Figure 647556DEST_PATH_IMAGE069
Corresponding to time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data set
Figure 814226DEST_PATH_IMAGE061
To (1)
Figure 550101DEST_PATH_IMAGE070
The second preset confidence level of the data
Figure 342476DEST_PATH_IMAGE060
The monthly mean risk value for the following timesharing plan deviation ratio risk data set may be expressed as:
Figure 214617DEST_PATH_IMAGE071
and second preset confidence level
Figure 50724DEST_PATH_IMAGE060
Determining the time-sharing average risk value of the time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data set as the time-sharing plan deviation rate
Figure 273895DEST_PATH_IMAGE072
In this embodiment, the inherent deviation between the historical electric quantity planned value and the historical electric quantity actual value is considered, a random data set is formed based on the historical electric power data characteristics, and the monthly power generation planned deviation rate and the time-sharing power generation planned deviation rate are determined by using the average risk value, so that a basis is provided for deviation adjustment of a subsequent power generation plan.
Step 103: and calculating the monthly plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the monthly plan deviation rate, and carrying out monthly distribution on the annual total quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset monthly initial distribution strategy and a monthly secondary distribution strategy to obtain the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation.
In an embodiment, the monthly planned electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation is calculated according to the monthly planned deviation ratio obtained in step 101, that is, the monthly planned electric quantity correction value of the out-of-province non-adjustable priority power generation and the in-province non-adjustable priority power generation is calculated, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure 869962DEST_PATH_IMAGE073
in the formula,
Figure 862188DEST_PATH_IMAGE074
monthly priority power generation schedule electric quantity representing non-adjustable priority power generation outside the province,
Figure 636240DEST_PATH_IMAGE075
The monthly priority power generation planning electric quantity of the non-adjustable priority power generation in the province is represented, and the monthly priority power generation planning electric quantity of the non-adjustable priority power generation can be directly acquired by a scheduling mechanism.
In one embodiment, based on a preset monthly initial distribution strategy, monthly initial distribution is firstly carried out on the annual total amount of the intra-province adjustable power generation with priority; specifically, a first difference between the monthly predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user and a monthly planned electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation is calculated by obtaining monthly predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user, monthly initial distribution is carried out on annual electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation according to the first difference, and a calculation formula of the first difference is as follows:
Figure 674604DEST_PATH_IMAGE076
wherein,
Figure 684148DEST_PATH_IMAGE077
a first difference between monthly predicted electric power of the ensuring user and monthly planned electric power correction value of electricity generation with no adjustment in the province and no adjustment in the province,
Figure 376554DEST_PATH_IMAGE078
Monthly predicted electric quantity representing guaranteed users is obtained by prediction of a scheduling mechanism,
Figure 570775DEST_PATH_IMAGE079
Is at the same time
Figure 502959DEST_PATH_IMAGE080
Month get the first
Figure 191560DEST_PATH_IMAGE081
The monthly province can adjust the monthly initial distribution value of the priority power generation.
In this embodiment, the annual total amount of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation is initially allocated monthly, so that the situation that the priority power generation scale is smaller or even smaller than the guaranteed user scale, which may occur when the power generation side marketization is higher, can be avoided in time.
In one embodiment, after completing the monthly initial allocation, a preset monthly secondary allocation strategy is also executed; specifically, the annual total amount of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation after monthly initial distribution is calculated to obtain the residual annual electric quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation; the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure 892800DEST_PATH_IMAGE082
wherein,
Figure 257922DEST_PATH_IMAGE083
is shown as
Figure 677402DEST_PATH_IMAGE084
The actual generating capacity can be generated by month-adjustable priority;
Figure 402650DEST_PATH_IMAGE085
indicating the last month that the actual execution has completed before the allocation was performed.
In this embodiment, based on the calculation formula of the remaining annual energy of the provincial adjustable priority power generation, the remaining annual energy of the provincial adjustable priority power generation can be updated in time based on the actual power generation amount of the actual executed month completed before the allocation is executed, so that the value of the subsequent month allocation is more accurate.
In an embodiment, the monthly predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user corresponding to each month, the predicted electric quantity of the agent electricity purchasing user and the predicted electric quantity of the competitive user in each monthly remaining power generation space are subtracted by the corrected value of the out-of-province non-adjustable priority power generation plan electric quantity corresponding to each month, the corrected value of the intra-province non-adjustable priority power generation monthly plan electric quantity and the monthly primary distribution value of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation corresponding to each month, and the specific calculation formula is as follows:
Figure 223976DEST_PATH_IMAGE086
Figure 432103DEST_PATH_IMAGE087
wherein,
Figure 666776DEST_PATH_IMAGE088
representing the predicted electric quantity of the agent electricity purchasing user,
Figure 697180DEST_PATH_IMAGE089
And the predicted electric quantity of the competitive users is obtained by prediction of a scheduling mechanism.
According to the calculated monthly surplus power generation spaces, calculating a first proportion of the monthly surplus power generation spaces in the total monthly surplus power generation space, wherein a calculation formula of the first proportion is as follows:
Figure 169749DEST_PATH_IMAGE090
in one embodiment, according to the first proportion, monthly secondary distribution is performed on the residual annual energy amount of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation, namely:
Figure 752040DEST_PATH_IMAGE091
wherein,
Figure 270746DEST_PATH_IMAGE092
is shown in
Figure 963896DEST_PATH_IMAGE093
When the distribution is performed in the month, the second distribution is performed
Figure 339907DEST_PATH_IMAGE084
The monthly secondary distribution value of the preferential power generation can be adjusted in the province of the month;
Figure 952154DEST_PATH_IMAGE094
representing the upper limit of the power generation output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation;
Figure 833522DEST_PATH_IMAGE095
is shown as
Figure 205729DEST_PATH_IMAGE084
Total days of the month;
Figure 856153DEST_PATH_IMAGE096
is shown as
Figure 904880DEST_PATH_IMAGE097
The power generation output upper limit of the preferential power generation can be adjusted in each province;
Figure 804703DEST_PATH_IMAGE098
the residual space adjusting coefficient can be used for amplifying or reducing the original residual power generation space;
Figure 839655DEST_PATH_IMAGE099
for the power generation adjusting coefficient, the monthly distributed electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation is controlled not to exceed a certain proportion of the actual power generation capacity;
Figure 984067DEST_PATH_IMAGE100
indicating the months in which the monthly power generation plan still needs to be made.
In one embodiment, the data is updated according to the actual conditions that are executed every month in the year.
Step 104: and calculating the time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the time-sharing plan deviation rate, and performing time-sharing power generation output distribution on the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset time-sharing power generation output initial distribution strategy and a time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution strategy to obtain the intra-province adjustable priority power generation time-sharing plan electric quantity.
In an embodiment, the time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value for the non-adjustable priority power generation is calculated according to the time-sharing plan deviation ratio obtained in step 101, that is, the time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value for the non-adjustable priority power generation outside the province and the non-adjustable priority power generation inside the province is calculated, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure 79062DEST_PATH_IMAGE101
in the formula,
Figure 794077DEST_PATH_IMAGE102
time-sharing priority power generation planning electric quantity representing non-adjustable priority power generation outside the province,
Figure 367141DEST_PATH_IMAGE103
The time-sharing priority power generation planning electric quantity represents the time-sharing priority power generation planning electric quantity of the intra-provincial non-adjustable priority power generation, and the time-sharing priority power generation planning electric quantity of the non-adjustable priority power generation can be directly acquired by a scheduling mechanism.
In an embodiment, before executing the initial allocation strategy of time-sharing power generation output, the updated monthly scheduled power amount of the current intra-province adjustable priority power generation needs to be obtained, where the monthly scheduled power amount of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation is the sum of the monthly primary allocation value of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation and the monthly secondary allocation value of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation, and the specific is as follows:
Figure 867523DEST_PATH_IMAGE104
in one embodiment, based on a preset time-sharing power generation output initial distribution strategy, time-sharing initial distribution is performed on monthly plan power generation which is obtained and updated currently in-province adjustable priority power generation, specifically, a second difference between the guaranteed user time-sharing power generation output predicted power generation and the time-sharing plan power generation correction value of the unadjustable priority power generation is calculated by obtaining a guaranteed user time-sharing power generation output predicted power generation; according to the second difference, performing time-sharing power generation output initial distribution on the monthly planned electric quantity of the provincial interior adjustable priority power generation; the calculation formula of the second difference is as follows:
Figure 133419DEST_PATH_IMAGE105
wherein,
Figure 7834DEST_PATH_IMAGE106
representing different time periods within the month;
Figure 509223DEST_PATH_IMAGE107
representing a second difference of the time-sharing predicted electric quantity of the security user and a time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of power generation with a priority of non-adjustable outside province and non-adjustable inside province;
Figure 723167DEST_PATH_IMAGE108
and the time-sharing predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user is represented and is obtained by prediction of a scheduling mechanism.
In one embodiment, after the time-sharing initial allocation is completed, a preset time-sharing secondary allocation strategy is executed; specifically, the remaining time-sharing power generation total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation after the time-sharing power generation output is initially distributed is calculated; the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure 525077DEST_PATH_IMAGE109
wherein, in the formula
Figure 90050DEST_PATH_IMAGE110
Is shown as
Figure 67233DEST_PATH_IMAGE111
The adjustable priority of each time interval generates actual power output;
Figure 525896DEST_PATH_IMAGE112
indicating the last period of time during which actual execution has completed before the allocation is performed;
Figure 868016DEST_PATH_IMAGE113
indicating the interval length of each period.
In this embodiment, based on the above calculation formula of the remaining time-sharing total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation, the remaining time-sharing total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation can be updated in time based on the actual power generation output amount of the actual execution time period completed before the current distribution is executed, so that the subsequent execution of the subsequent time-sharing distribution is more accurate.
In one embodiment, the remaining power generation space in each time period is obtained by subtracting the modified value of the time-sharing planned power generation amount of non-provincial non-adjustable priority power generation, the modified value of the time-sharing planned power generation amount of intra-provincial non-adjustable priority power generation and the time-sharing initial distribution value of intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation corresponding to each month from the sum of the time-sharing predicted charge of the guaranteed user, the time-sharing predicted charge of the agent electricity purchasing user and the time-sharing predicted charge of the competitive user corresponding to each time period, and the specific calculation formula is as follows:
Figure 795652DEST_PATH_IMAGE114
Figure 576526DEST_PATH_IMAGE115
wherein,
Figure 765062DEST_PATH_IMAGE116
representing the time-sharing predicted charge of the agent electricity purchasing user,
Figure 402717DEST_PATH_IMAGE117
And the time-sharing predicted charge of the competitive users is obtained by prediction of a scheduling mechanism.
According to the calculated residual generating space of each time period, calculating a second proportion of the residual generating space of each time period in the total time period, wherein a calculation formula of the second proportion is as follows:
Figure 942282DEST_PATH_IMAGE118
in one embodiment, according to the second proportion, the remaining time-sharing power generation total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation is subjected to time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution, that is:
Figure 838432DEST_PATH_IMAGE119
wherein,
Figure 943791DEST_PATH_IMAGE120
is shown in
Figure 893293DEST_PATH_IMAGE121
Time interval set provincial adjustable priority power generation
Figure 779209DEST_PATH_IMAGE122
Monthly secondary distribution values for time periods;
Figure 839569DEST_PATH_IMAGE123
representing the remaining power generation space adjustment coefficient;
Figure 878063DEST_PATH_IMAGE124
indicating that a period of generating power still needs to be established.
In one embodiment, the data is updated according to the actual situation executed at each moment in the month.
Step 105: and generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan by combining the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation and the time-sharing plan electric quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation.
In one embodiment, a monthly power generation plan of provincial adjustable priority is made according to monthly plan power generation of provincial adjustable priority; according to the time-sharing plan electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation, a provincial adjustable priority power generation time-sharing power generation output plan is made; and generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan based on the combination of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation monthly electric quantity plan and the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation time-sharing power generation output plan, and executing the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation electric quantity scheduling based on the generated intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan.
In one embodiment, since the formulated intra-provincial adjustable priority time-sharing power generation output plan is used for actual execution, the intra-provincial adjustable priority time-sharing power generation output plan needs to satisfy a plurality of constraint conditions, wherein the plurality of constraint conditions are as follows:
(1) and (3) unit distribution power balance constraint:
Figure 60783DEST_PATH_IMAGE125
(2) and (3) total power generation output distribution balance constraint:
Figure 309362DEST_PATH_IMAGE126
(3) and (3) restraining an upper limit and a lower limit of output:
Figure 298046DEST_PATH_IMAGE127
in the formula,
Figure 315681DEST_PATH_IMAGE128
showing the starting and stopping states of the jth intra-province adjustable priority power generation power supply in the time period t,
Figure 983816DEST_PATH_IMAGE129
indicating a shut-down of the machine,
Figure 719691DEST_PATH_IMAGE130
indicating startup;
Figure 512066DEST_PATH_IMAGE131
Figure 649787DEST_PATH_IMAGE132
respectively represent
Figure 987358DEST_PATH_IMAGE133
The lower limit and the upper limit of the output of the power supply can be adjusted and prioritized in the provinces.
(4) And (3) climbing restraint:
Figure 210529DEST_PATH_IMAGE134
in the formula,
Figure 806596DEST_PATH_IMAGE135
respectively represent the first
Figure 533243DEST_PATH_IMAGE133
The maximum climbing speed and the descending speed of the preferential power generation power supply can be adjusted in each province.
(5) Minimum continuous on-off time constraint:
Figure 805830DEST_PATH_IMAGE136
wherein,
Figure 516297DEST_PATH_IMAGE137
minimum continuous on-time and minimum continuous off-time;
Figure 650476DEST_PATH_IMAGE138
in a time period
Figure 762788DEST_PATH_IMAGE111
The time for continuous start-up and the time for continuous shutdown.
(6) And (4) maximum starting and stopping times constraint:
Figure 645424DEST_PATH_IMAGE139
Figure 967821DEST_PATH_IMAGE140
in the formula,
Figure 515477DEST_PATH_IMAGE141
respectively represent the first
Figure 859127DEST_PATH_IMAGE133
Maximum start-up and shut-down times allowed by the provincial adjustable priority power generation power supply,
Figure 99616DEST_PATH_IMAGE142
Is a first
Figure 643730DEST_PATH_IMAGE133
Within-provincial adjustable priority power generation power supply in time period
Figure 995077DEST_PATH_IMAGE111
A switching variable whether to switch to the start state,
Figure 691768DEST_PATH_IMAGE143
Is a first
Figure 103158DEST_PATH_IMAGE133
Within-provincial adjustable priority power generation power supply in time period
Figure 134568DEST_PATH_IMAGE111
A switch variable whether to switch to a shutdown state.
(7) And (3) line power flow constraint:
Figure 24027DEST_PATH_IMAGE144
;
in the formula,
Figure 339339DEST_PATH_IMAGE145
is the tidal current transmission limit of line I;
Figure 921630DEST_PATH_IMAGE146
is as follows
Figure 440336DEST_PATH_IMAGE133
The power output transfer distribution factor of the generator of the line I is converted by the node where the individual provincial non-adjustable priority power generation power source connecting line is located;
Figure 133486DEST_PATH_IMAGE147
are respectively the first
Figure 460562DEST_PATH_IMAGE133
The power generation power supply with non-adjustable priority in individual province and
Figure 89121DEST_PATH_IMAGE133
the method comprises the following steps that (1) a distribution factor of generator output power transfer of a line I is obtained by a node where a power generation power source is located in each province in an adjustable and preferential mode;
Figure 970489DEST_PATH_IMAGE148
is a node
Figure 591963DEST_PATH_IMAGE149
A generator output power transfer profile factor for line I;
Figure 976808DEST_PATH_IMAGE150
is a node
Figure 12154DEST_PATH_IMAGE151
In a period of time
Figure 380818DEST_PATH_IMAGE152
The bus load value of (2).
In summary, according to the method for generating the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan provided by the embodiment, the inherent deviation between the historical electric quantity planning value and the historical electric quantity actual value is considered, the random data set is formed based on the historical electric power data characteristics, and the monthly power generation planning deviation ratio and the time-sharing power generation planning deviation ratio are determined by using the average risk value, so that a basis is provided for deviation adjustment of the subsequent power generation plans. Based on the matching considering the non-marketized power generation and utilization scale, the priority power generation scale corresponding to the power utilization of the guaranteed users is ensured in an initial distribution mode; and then, aiming at the balance of the plan and the market power generation space, developing secondary distribution by combining various constraint conditions, and designing a monthly plan consumption and a time-sharing plan electric quantity obtaining method of the provincial adjustable priority power generation dispatching plan, so that the provincial adjustable priority power generation dispatching plan under the dual track system of the plan and the market effectively guarantees the market operation space, and meanwhile, the electric quantity dispatching accuracy of the provincial adjustable priority power generation dispatching plan is improved.
Example 2
Referring to fig. 2, fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of an embodiment of an apparatus for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan according to the present invention, as shown in fig. 2, the apparatus includes a priority power generation classifying module 201, a plan deviation rate obtaining module 202, a monthly plan electric quantity obtaining module 203, a time-sharing plan electric quantity obtaining module 204, and an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan generating module 205, which are specifically as follows:
the priority power generation classification module 201 is used for classifying the priority power generation into non-adjustable priority power generation and intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation according to the power generation characteristics.
The plan deviation ratio obtaining module 202 is configured to obtain and calculate a historical monthly plan deviation ratio and a historical time-sharing plan deviation ratio of each type of priority power generation according to historical power and electric quantity data corresponding to each type of priority power generation, and obtain a monthly plan deviation ratio and a time-sharing plan deviation ratio.
The monthly plan electric quantity obtaining module 203 is configured to calculate a monthly plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the monthly plan deviation ratio, and perform monthly distribution on the annual total quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset monthly initial distribution strategy and a monthly secondary distribution strategy to obtain the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation.
The time-sharing plan electric quantity obtaining module 204 is configured to calculate a time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the time-sharing plan deviation ratio, and perform time-sharing power generation output distribution on the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset time-sharing power generation output initial distribution strategy and a time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution strategy to obtain the intra-province adjustable priority power generation time-sharing plan electric quantity.
The intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan generating module 205 is configured to generate an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan by combining the monthly scheduled power amount of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation and the time-sharing scheduled power amount of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation.
In one embodiment, the plan deviation rate obtaining module is configured to obtain and calculate a historical monthly plan deviation rate and a historical time-sharing plan deviation rate of each type of priority power generation respectively according to historical power and electric quantity data corresponding to each type of priority power generation, and obtain a monthly plan deviation rate and a time-sharing plan deviation rate; specifically, according to historical monthly plan electric quantity and historical monthly actual electric quantity corresponding to various types of priority power generation, historical monthly plan deviation rates of various types of priority power generation are respectively calculated, and monthly plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various types of priority power generation are generated according to distribution characteristics of the historical monthly plan deviation rates; acquiring a monthly average risk value of the monthly plan deviation rate risk data set according to a first preset confidence level, and acquiring a monthly plan deviation rate based on the monthly average risk value; meanwhile, according to historical time-sharing plan electric quantity and historical time-sharing actual electric quantity corresponding to various types of priority power generation, historical time-sharing plan deviation rates of various types of priority power generation are respectively calculated, and time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various types of priority power generation are generated according to distribution characteristics of the historical time-sharing plan deviation rates; and acquiring a time-sharing average risk value of the time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data set according to a second preset confidence coefficient, and acquiring a time-sharing plan deviation rate based on the time-sharing average risk value.
In an embodiment, the monthly plan power acquiring module 203 acquires the preset monthly initial allocation strategy; specifically, monthly predicted electric quantity of a guaranteed user is obtained, and a first difference between the monthly predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user and the monthly planned electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation is calculated; according to the first difference, monthly initial distribution is carried out on the annual electric quantity of the provincial adjustable power generation with priority.
In an embodiment, the monthly planned electric quantity obtaining module 203 is configured to obtain monthly secondary distribution strategies; specifically, each month residual power generation space is obtained, and a first ratio of each month residual power generation space to the total month residual power generation space is calculated; meanwhile, the residual annual electric quantity of the province-wide adjustable priority power generation after monthly initial distribution is calculated; and according to the first proportion, carrying out monthly secondary distribution on the surplus annual electric quantity which can be adjusted and generated preferentially in the province.
In an embodiment, the time-sharing planned electric quantity obtaining module 204 obtains the preset time-sharing generated output initial distribution strategy; specifically, acquiring the time-sharing power generation output predicted electric quantity of the security user, and calculating a second difference between the time-sharing power generation output predicted electric quantity of the security user and the time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation; and according to the second difference, performing time-sharing power generation output initial distribution on the monthly planned electric quantity of the provincial interior adjustable priority power generation.
In an embodiment, the time-sharing planned electric quantity obtaining module 204 is configured to obtain the time-sharing electricity generation output secondary distribution strategy; specifically, the residual generating space in each time period is obtained, and a second proportion of the residual generating space in each time period in the total time period is calculated; meanwhile, calculating the residual time-sharing power generation total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation after the time-sharing power generation output is initially distributed; and according to the second proportion, performing time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution on the residual time-sharing power generation total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation.
It can be clearly understood by those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity, the specific working process of the apparatus described above may refer to the corresponding process in the foregoing method embodiment, and is not described herein again.
Further, in an embodiment of the present application, there is provided a terminal device, including a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, where the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the method for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan according to the above embodiment.
Further, an embodiment of the present application further provides a computer-readable storage medium, where the computer-readable storage medium includes a stored computer program, where when the computer program runs, the apparatus where the computer-readable storage medium is located is controlled to execute the method for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan as described in the foregoing embodiment.
In summary, according to the method and the device for generating the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan, the monthly plan deviation rate and the time-sharing plan deviation rate of each type of priority power generation are determined through the historical electric quantity data corresponding to each type of priority power generation, effective basis is provided for the follow-up correction of the monthly plan electric quantity and the time-sharing plan electric quantity of the non-adjustable priority power generation, the method for acquiring the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation and the method for acquiring the time-sharing plan electric quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation are respectively designed for the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation, and the annual total quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation is subjected to monthly distribution based on the preset monthly initial distribution strategy and monthly secondary distribution strategy to obtain the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation; and performing time-sharing power generation output distribution on the monthly planned electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation based on a preset time-sharing power generation output initial distribution strategy and a time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution strategy to obtain the time-sharing planned electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation, so that an provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan is generated, guarantee is provided for the ordered operation of the power market, and meanwhile, the electric quantity scheduling accuracy of the provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan is improved.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, many modifications and substitutions can be made without departing from the technical principle of the present invention, and these modifications and substitutions should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (8)

1. A method for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan is characterized by comprising the following steps:
according to the power generation characteristics, the priority power generation is divided into non-adjustable priority power generation and intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation;
respectively calculating historical monthly plan deviation rates of various priority power generation according to historical monthly plan electric quantity and historical monthly actual electric quantity corresponding to various priority power generation, and generating monthly plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various priority power generation according to distribution characteristics of the historical monthly plan deviation rates;
acquiring a monthly average risk value of the monthly plan deviation rate risk data set according to a first preset confidence coefficient, and acquiring a monthly plan deviation rate based on the monthly average risk value, wherein the first preset confidence coefficient c is the value of the c th percentile in the monthly plan deviation rate risk data set;
meanwhile, according to historical time-sharing plan electric quantity and historical time-sharing actual electric quantity corresponding to various types of priority power generation, historical time-sharing plan deviation rates of various types of priority power generation are respectively calculated, and time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various types of priority power generation are generated according to distribution characteristics of the historical time-sharing plan deviation rates;
according to a second preset confidence coefficient, acquiring a time-sharing average risk value of the time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data set, and obtaining a time-sharing plan deviation rate based on the time-sharing average risk value, wherein the second preset confidence coefficient
Figure 53599DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
Planning deviation Rate Risk data set for timesharing
Figure 536664DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
The value of the percentile;
calculating a monthly plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the monthly plan deviation rate, and carrying out monthly distribution on the annual total quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset monthly initial distribution strategy and a monthly secondary distribution strategy to obtain monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation;
calculating a time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the time-sharing plan deviation rate, and performing time-sharing power generation output distribution on monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset time-sharing power generation output initial distribution strategy and a time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution strategy to obtain intra-province adjustable priority power generation time-sharing plan electric quantity;
and generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan by combining the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation and the time-sharing plan electric quantity of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation.
2. The method for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan according to claim 1, wherein the preset monthly initial allocation strategy specifically comprises:
acquiring monthly predicted electric quantity of a guaranteed user, and calculating a first difference between the monthly predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user and the monthly planned electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation;
according to the first difference, monthly initial distribution is carried out on annual electric quantity of the provincial adjustable power generation with priority.
3. The method for generating the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan according to claim 2, wherein the monthly secondary allocation strategy specifically comprises:
acquiring each month residual power generation space, and calculating a first ratio of each month residual power generation space in the total month residual power generation space;
meanwhile, the residual annual electric quantity of the province-wide adjustable priority power generation after monthly initial distribution is calculated;
and according to the first proportion, carrying out monthly secondary distribution on the surplus annual electric quantity which can be adjusted and generated preferentially in the province.
4. The method for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan as claimed in claim 2, wherein the preset time-sharing power generation output initial allocation strategy specifically comprises:
acquiring the time-sharing power generation output predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user, and calculating a second difference between the time-sharing power generation output predicted electric quantity of the guaranteed user and the time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation;
and according to the second difference, performing time-sharing power generation output initial distribution on the monthly planned electric quantity of the provincial interior adjustable priority power generation.
5. The method for generating the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan according to claim 4, wherein the time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution strategy specifically comprises:
acquiring the residual generating space of each time period, and calculating a second ratio of the residual generating space of each time period to the residual generating space of the total time period;
meanwhile, calculating the residual time-sharing power generation total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation after the time-sharing power generation output is initially distributed;
and according to the second proportion, performing secondary distribution of the time-sharing power generation output on the residual time-sharing power generation total output of the intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation.
6. An apparatus for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan, comprising: the system comprises a priority power generation classification module, a plan deviation rate acquisition module, a monthly plan electric quantity acquisition module, a time-sharing plan electric quantity acquisition module and an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan generation module;
the priority power generation classification module is used for classifying priority power generation into non-adjustable priority power generation and intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation according to power generation characteristics;
the system comprises a planning deviation rate acquisition module, a planning deviation rate calculation module and a planning deviation rate calculation module, wherein the planning deviation rate acquisition module is used for respectively calculating historical monthly planning deviation rates of various types of priority power generation according to historical monthly planning electric quantity and historical monthly actual electric quantity corresponding to various types of priority power generation and generating monthly planning deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to various types of priority power generation according to distribution characteristics of the historical monthly planning deviation rates; acquiring a monthly average risk value of the monthly plan deviation rate risk data set according to a first preset confidence coefficient, and acquiring a monthly plan deviation rate based on the monthly average risk value, wherein the first preset confidence coefficient c is the value of the c th percentile in the monthly plan deviation rate risk data set;
the plan deviation rate acquisition module is further used for respectively calculating historical time-sharing plan deviation rates of various priority power generations according to historical time-sharing plan electric quantity and historical time-sharing actual electric quantity corresponding to the various priority power generations, and generating time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data sets corresponding to the various priority power generations according to distribution characteristics of the historical time-sharing plan deviation rates; according to a second preset confidence coefficient, obtaining a time-sharing average risk value of the time-sharing plan deviation rate risk data set, and obtaining a time-sharing plan deviation rate based on the time-sharing average risk value, wherein the second preset confidence coefficient
Figure 588934DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
For timesharing plan deviation Rate Risk data set
Figure 104228DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
The value of the percentile;
the monthly plan electric quantity obtaining module is used for calculating a monthly plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the monthly plan deviation ratio, and carrying out monthly distribution on the annual total quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset monthly initial distribution strategy and a monthly secondary distribution strategy to obtain the monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation;
the time-sharing plan electric quantity obtaining module is used for calculating a time-sharing plan electric quantity correction value of the non-adjustable priority power generation according to the time-sharing plan deviation ratio, and performing time-sharing power generation output distribution on monthly plan electric quantity of the intra-province adjustable priority power generation based on a preset time-sharing power generation output initial distribution strategy and a time-sharing power generation output secondary distribution strategy to obtain intra-province adjustable priority power generation time-sharing plan electric quantity;
and the provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan generating module is used for generating the provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan by combining the monthly scheduling electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation and the time-sharing scheduling electric quantity of the provincial adjustable priority power generation.
7. A terminal device comprising a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, the processor implementing the method of generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation schedule plan according to any one of claims 1 to 5 when executing the computer program.
8. A computer-readable storage medium, comprising a stored computer program, wherein the computer program, when executed, controls an apparatus in which the computer-readable storage medium is located to perform the method for generating an intra-provincial adjustable priority power generation scheduling plan according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
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