CN114565401A - Multi-factor analysis method for influencing development of carbon reduction business of household users by using electricity as gas energy - Google Patents

Multi-factor analysis method for influencing development of carbon reduction business of household users by using electricity as gas energy Download PDF

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CN114565401A
CN114565401A CN202210147700.8A CN202210147700A CN114565401A CN 114565401 A CN114565401 A CN 114565401A CN 202210147700 A CN202210147700 A CN 202210147700A CN 114565401 A CN114565401 A CN 114565401A
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influence
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尹力
万文轩
冀亚男
朱陶之
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Wuhan Power Supply Co of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention relates to a multi-factor analysis method for influencing the development of carbon reduction business of household users by using electricity as a substitute for gas energy, which comprises the following steps: 1, selecting main factors influencing the development of carbon reduction business of a family user by using electricity as an energy source; 2, quantifying the mutual relation among the elements by an expert scoring method to obtain an original influence matrix O; 3, processing the original matrix to obtain a comprehensive influence matrix T; 4 calculating the influence degree C of each factor according to the comprehensive influence matrix TiDegree of influence Di(ii) a 5 degree of influence of passing CiDegree of influence DiCalculating the centrality MiCause degree Ri(ii) a 6 the calculated centrality MiAnd degree of cause RiAnd then, performing data analysis in a drawing or tabulating mode. The invention can help to realize market popularization mode exploration of the electric energy substitution business for reducing carbon in energy.

Description

Multi-factor analysis method for influencing development of carbon reduction business of household users by using electricity as gas energy
Technical Field
The invention relates to a multi-factor analysis method for influencing the development of a household user carbon reduction business by using electricity as a gas energy source, belonging to the technical field of intelligent electricity utilization and urban low-carbon digital research.
Background
Urban communities which are main sites of green transformation of life styles and urban residential users which are directly promoted by green life styles have the problems that in the process of low-carbon transformation and related business development, the carbon emission of a client side is large, the coverage range is wide, but carbon trading means are lost, carbon reduction businesses represented by electric energy substitution, supply and demand interaction, distributed photovoltaic construction and the like depend on extra subsidies, and sustainable market ecology is difficult to develop.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the problems in the prior art, provides a multi-factor analysis method for influencing the development of the electric energy carbon reduction service by a family user, and can assist in realizing the marketized popularization mode exploration of the electric energy substitution service for reducing the carbon by the energy.
The invention discloses a multi-factor analysis method for influencing the development of a carbon reduction service of a family user by using electricity as a substitute for gas, which comprises the following steps:
step 1: selecting main factors influencing the development of the carbon reduction service of the family user by using the electricity as the gas energy;
step 2: quantifying the mutual relation among the elements by an expert scoring method to obtain an original influence matrix O;
the calculation formula of the original influence matrix O is as follows:
Figure BDA0003508962940000011
and step 3: processing the original matrix to obtain a comprehensive influence matrix T;
and 4, step 4: calculating the influence degree C of each factor according to the comprehensive influence matrix TiDegree of influence Di；
And 5: by influencing degree CiDegree of influence DiCalculating the centrality MiCause degree Ri；
Step 6: the calculated centrality MiAnd the degree of cause RiThen, counting is carried out by drawing or tabulatingAccording to the analysis.
Further, step 3 specifically includes the following steps:
step 3.1: obtaining a direct influence matrix A by normalizing the original influence matrix O; the formula of the direct influence matrix is as follows:
Figure BDA0003508962940000021
wherein Z represents the number of experts participating in the scoring;
step 3.2: obtaining a standard direct influence matrix B by carrying out normalization processing on the direct influence matrix A;
the formula for the specification to directly affect matrix B is as follows:
Figure BDA0003508962940000022
step 3.3: calculating to obtain the comprehensive influence matrix T by the normalized direct influence matrix;
T＝B(E-B)-1in the formula, E represents an identity matrix.
Further, the influence degree C in step 4iThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003508962940000023
degree of influence DiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003508962940000024
further, the centrality M in step 5iThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows: mi＝Ci+Di(ii) a The degree of reason RiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows: ri＝Ci-Di。
Further, when the cause degree R isi>At 0, RiThe factor is a cause factor, and the influence of the factor on other factors is large; ri<At the time of 0, the number of the first,Rithe result factor indicates that the factor is greatly influenced by other factors.
Further, the main factors include the degree of maturity X of the electrogas technology1Safety X by electric gas-replacing technology2Replacement cost satisfaction degree X of gas equipment3Satisfaction degree X of electricity cost for replacing gas with electricity4Auxiliary service satisfaction X5Degree of policy calling X6。
Further, determining the influence and influenced relation between the influencing factors by means of pairwise comparison, and comparing X1、X6Two comparisons were made, each being X1To X6Influence degree and X of6To X1The influence of (2) is not compared with the influence factors themselves, and the value on the diagonal of the matrix is determined to be 0.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: 1. the invention selects 6 types of factors of the maturity of the electricity gas technology, the safety of the electricity gas technology, the replacement cost satisfaction of gas equipment, the satisfaction of the electricity cost of electricity gas, the satisfaction of auxiliary service and the calling degree of policy, realizes the comprehensive consideration of the comprehensive requirements of two object main bodies of the demand and the intention of an electricity gas service executive party (family resident electricity customer), the maturity of the electricity gas technology and the auxiliary service strategy of a service party (power grid company), and improves the coverage comprehensiveness of the influence factors;
2. by calculating the influence degree and the influenced degree of every two factors, the influence relationship among the factors and the influence of the influence relationship on the whole development of the carbon reduction service of the family user by the electricity-gas energy resource can be judged; the centrality is calculated to analyze the importance degree of the factors;
3. the method calculates the reason degree, reflects whether the factors mainly influence other factors or are influenced by other factors, and when R is in the state of being influenced by other factorsi>At 0, RiThe factor is a cause factor, and the influence of the factor on other factors is large; ri<At 0, RiThe result factor shows that the factor is greatly influenced by other factors;
4. the invention relates to a method for replacing gas by electricity in electric energy substitution, which comprises selecting factors influencing the technical maturity of replacing gas by electricity, the satisfaction degree of replacing cost of gas equipment, the satisfaction degree of replacing power by electricity, the satisfaction degree of using electricity to replace gas, the calling degree of policy and the like developed by urban residential users by using electricity to replace gas energy to reduce carbon, based on a DEMATEL model, through comparing every two factors, analyzing the influence of each factor on other factors and the degree of influence of other factors, calculating the influence degree, the influenced degree, the centrality and the reason degree of each factor through constructing a model, thereby determining the cause and effect relationship of all factors and the role of the household user in the development of the carbon reduction business by the electric substitute gas energy, the method realizes the market popularization mode exploration of the electric energy substitution business for reducing carbon in energy sources, further supports the sustainable low-carbon market ecology construction, and assists the national dual-carbon goal to be achieved.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will now be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. These drawings are simplified schematic views illustrating only the basic structure of the present invention in a schematic manner, and thus show only the constitution related to the present invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the multi-factor analysis method for influencing the development of the electrical gas energy carbon reduction service for the home users of the present invention comprises the following steps:
step 1: selecting main factors influencing the development of the carbon reduction service of the family user by using the electricity as the gas energy;
the main factors include the maturity degree X of the electric gas generation technology1Safety X by electric gas-replacing technology2Replacement cost satisfaction degree X of gas equipment3And the satisfaction degree X of the cost of replacing the electricity for gas consumption by electricity4Auxiliary service satisfaction X5Degree of policy calling X6。
Determining the influence and influenced relation between the influencing factors by pairwise comparison, and determining the maturity X of the electric gas technology1Degree of policy calling X6Two comparisons are made, each with an electrical gas technology maturity X1Degree of calling policy X6Degree of influence and policy call degree X6For replacing gas with electricityMaturity degree X1The influence of (2) is not compared with the influence of (3), and the value on the diagonal of the matrix is determined to be 0.
Step 2: quantifying the mutual relation among the elements by an expert scoring method to obtain an original influence matrix O;
the calculation formula of the original influence matrix O is as follows:
Figure BDA0003508962940000041
5 experts (namely, Z-5) are invited to assign values to the influence degree and the influenced degree between each influencing factor, and the assignment result of each expert forms an influence matrix. The influence degree is measured by a 5-level scaling method with no influence of 0, small influence of 1, 2, large influence of 3 and large influence of 4, and an original influence matrix O is obtained after the evaluation by expert 11Expressed as:
Figure BDA0003508962940000042
step 2: the number of experts participating in the scoring is 5 (i.e., Z-5)
And step 3: processing the original matrix to obtain a comprehensive influence matrix T;
the step 3 specifically comprises the following steps:
step 3.1: obtaining a direct influence matrix A by normalizing the original influence matrix O; the formula for the direct influence matrix is as follows:
Figure BDA0003508962940000043
wherein Z represents the number of experts participating in the scoring;
the number of experts participating in the scoring is 5 (i.e., Z5), and the original influence matrix O is passed1The direct influence matrix A is obtained:
Figure BDA0003508962940000051
step 3.2: obtaining a standard direct influence matrix B by carrying out normalization processing on the direct influence matrix A;
the formula for the specification of the direct impact matrix B is as follows:
Figure BDA0003508962940000052
Figure BDA0003508962940000053
step 3.3: calculating to obtain a comprehensive influence matrix T by the normalized direct influence matrix;
T＝B(E-B)-1in the formula, E represents an identity matrix.
Then
Figure BDA0003508962940000054
In the formula, E represents an identity matrix.
And 4, step 4: calculating the influence degree C of each factor according to the comprehensive influence matrix TiDegree of influence Di；
Degree of influence C in step 4iThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003508962940000055
degree of influence DiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure BDA0003508962940000056
and 5: by influencing the degree CiDegree of influence DiCalculating the centrality MiCause degree Ri；
The centrality and the reason degree are more concerned in the two pairs of relations, and the centrality and the reason degree are important for judging the importance of all factors in influencing the development of the carbon reduction business of the household users by using the electric energy instead of the gas energy. The reason degree represents the difference between the influence degree and the influenced degree, and reflects whether the factors mainly influence or are influenced by other factors.
Centrality M in step 5iThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows: mi＝Ci+Di(ii) a Degree of cause RiThe calculation formula of (c) is as follows: ri＝Ci-Di。
The factors are shown in the following table:
TABLE 1
Code of influencing factor Influence degree Degree of influence Degree of centrality Degree of reason
X1 0.95 0.63 1.58 0.32
X2 0.69 0.56 1.25 0.12
X3 0.39 0.90 1.29 -0.52
X4 0.45 0.68 1.12 -0.23
X5 0.20 0.97 1.17 -0.77
X6 1.80 0.73 2.53 1.07
And 6: the calculated centrality MiAnd degree of cause RiAnd then, performing data analysis in a drawing or tabulating mode.
When degree of cause Ri>At 0, RiThe factor is a cause factor, and the influence of the factor on other factors is large; ri<At 0, RiThe result factor indicates that the factor is greatly influenced by other factors.
The influence on the development of the carbon reduction service by the household users by using the electric gas energy sources is shown in table 1 and is ranked from high to low according to the centrality: policy calling degree X6>Maturity X of electric gas-substituting technology1>Replacing cost satisfaction X with gas equipment3>Safety X by electric gas-replacing technology2>Auxiliary service satisfaction X5>Satisfaction degree X of electricity cost by replacing gas with electricity4. Therefore, the most important factor influencing the development of the carbon reduction business by using the electric gas as the energy of the household users is the policy calling degree, and the other two factors ranked in the first three are the maturity of the electric gas technology and the satisfaction of the replacement cost of the gas equipment respectively, and the priority should be given to the aspects of policy guidance, solution, replacement cost and the like.
Table 1 shows that in the carbon reduction business of influencing the household users by using electric gas as energy, the maturity X of the electric gas technology1Safety X by electric gas-replacing technology2Degree of policy calling X6The reason degrees of the three factors are positive values, which indicates that the factor has a large influence on other factors; replacing cost satisfaction X with gas equipment3Safety X by electric gas-replacing technology2Auxiliary service satisfaction X5The reason degrees of the three factors are negative, which indicates that the factor is greatly influenced by other factors. Among them, the most important cause is the policy calling degree X6The policy calling degree is shown to influence the home users to replace the phone numberThe fundamental factors of the development of the gas energy carbon reduction service, such as the blank period during the connection period of the new and old policies, undefined policy regulations, low policy strength and other management effects, have great influence on the development of the carbon reduction service of urban resident users.
In light of the foregoing description of the preferred embodiment of the present invention, many modifications and variations will be apparent to those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. The technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the content of the specification, and must be determined according to the scope of the claims.

Claims (7)

1. A multi-factor analysis method for influencing the development of carbon reduction business of household users by using electric substitute gas energy is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: selecting main factors influencing the development of the carbon reduction service of the family user by using the electricity as the energy;
step 2: quantifying the mutual relation among the elements by an expert scoring method to obtain an original influence matrix O;
the calculation formula of the original influence matrix O is as follows:
Figure FDA0003508962930000011
and step 3: processing the original matrix to obtain a comprehensive influence matrix T;
and 4, step 4: calculating the influence degree C of each factor according to the comprehensive influence matrix TiDegree of influence Di；
And 5: by influencing degree CiDegree of influence DiCalculating the centrality MiCause degree Ri；
Step 6: the calculated centrality MiAnd degree of cause RiAnd then, performing data analysis in a drawing or tabulating mode.
2. The multi-factor analysis method for influencing the development of the carbon reduction business of the household users by the electric substitute energy according to claim 1, wherein the step 3 specifically comprises the following steps:
step 3.1: obtaining a direct influence matrix A by normalizing the original influence matrix O; the formula of the direct influence matrix is as follows:
Figure FDA0003508962930000012
wherein Z represents the number of experts participating in the scoring;
step 3.2: obtaining a standard direct influence matrix B by carrying out normalization processing on the direct influence matrix A;
the formula of the specification directly influencing matrix B is as follows:
Figure FDA0003508962930000013
step 3.3: calculating to obtain the comprehensive influence matrix T by the normalized direct influence matrix;
T＝B(E-B)-1in the formula, E represents a unit matrix.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the influence C in step 4 is a measure of the extent of the multi-factor analysis affecting home consumer carbon reduction from electricity as a power sourceiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure FDA0003508962930000021
degree of influence DiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows:
Figure FDA0003508962930000022
4. a multi-factor analysis method to influence home users' carbon reduction by electricity as an energy source according to claim 3, characterized by the centrality M in step 5iThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows: mi＝Ci+Di(ii) a The degree of reason RiThe calculation formula of (a) is as follows: ri＝Ci-Di。
5. The multi-factor analysis method for influencing the development of carbon reduction by electric gas energy service for home users according to claim 4,
when degree of cause Ri>At 0, RiThe factor is a cause factor, and the influence of the factor on other factors is large; ri<At 0, RiThe result factor indicates that the factor is greatly influenced by other factors.
6. Method for the analysis of the multiple factors influencing the development of the electrical energy generation carbon reduction business by the home users according to any of the claims 1 to 5, characterized in that the main factors comprise the maturity X of the electrical technology1Safety X by electric gas-replacing technology2Replacement cost satisfaction degree X of gas equipment3Satisfaction degree X of electricity cost for replacing gas with electricity4Auxiliary service satisfaction X5Degree of policy calling X6。
7. The multi-factor analysis method for influencing the development of carbon reduction by electric gas energy service for home users according to claim 6,
determining the influence and influenced relation between the influencing factors by pairwise comparison, and comparing X1、X6Two comparisons were made, each being X1To X6Influence of (2) and X6To X1The influence of (2) is not compared with the influence of (3), and the value on the diagonal of the matrix is determined to be 0.
CN202210147700.8A 2022-02-17 2022-02-17 Multi-factor analysis method for influencing development of carbon reduction business of household users by using electricity as gas energy Pending CN114565401A (en)

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