CN114510765A - Dynamic flood forecasting method for breakwater of sea wall under action of typhoon storm surge - Google Patents

Dynamic flood forecasting method for breakwater of sea wall under action of typhoon storm surge Download PDF

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CN114510765A
CN114510765A CN202210115000.0A CN202210115000A CN114510765A CN 114510765 A CN114510765 A CN 114510765A CN 202210115000 A CN202210115000 A CN 202210115000A CN 114510765 A CN114510765 A CN 114510765A
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朱业
陈甫源
樊立东
车助镁
于普兵
郭敬
贺成奇
李婷
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Zhejiang Marine Monitoring And Prediction Center
Zhejiang Institute of Hydraulics and Estuary
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Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamic flooding forecasting method for a sea wall breaking through dam under the action of typhoon storm surge. The method comprises storm tide level and typhoon wave calculation, sea wall overtopping amount calculation, breakwater overflow judgment and sea wall submergence early warning prediction, and submergence early warning prediction can be rapidly realized. The method comprises the following steps: (1) acquiring related typhoon forecast data, and generating a storm tide level and typhoon wave parameters of a wind field (2) through a storm tide numerical model and a wave numerical model based on a refined grid; (3) calculating the overtopping amount by inputting storm tide level, wave height and sea wall structure parameters, and determining the overtopping bursting threshold value according to the sea wall structure and then performing the risk judgment of the overtopping bursting; (4) and processing the model mesh according to the condition that the sea wall breaks through the sea wall, and performing dynamic submergence calculation. According to the invention, the correlation coupling calculation of storm surge and wave is realized by establishing a mathematical model of the fine grid and the terrain in front of the dike, so that the forecast accuracy of storm tide level and wave is improved.

Description

Dynamic flood forecasting method for breakwater of sea wall under action of typhoon storm surge
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of natural disaster forecasting, in particular to a dynamic flood forecasting method for a sea wall breaking dam under the action of typhoon storm surge.
Background
Storm surge is a disastrous natural phenomenon in which sea level changes rapidly and has great destructive power due to strong winds, particularly typhoons. 44% of the world population lives in areas less than 150km from the coast, coastal areas are mostly developed cities, and eight of the ten largest cities in the world are located in coastal areas, namely, Shanghai, hong Kong, Tokyo, Singapore, London, Frankfurt, New York and Sydney.
The coastline of China is 3.2 kilometers in total length, is very easy to be damaged by storm surge, and is particularly serious in Zhejiang province. The submergence early warning and forecasting of coastal typhoon storm surge are not only related to the development of economic society, but also related to the life safety of people. The existing method has less dynamic flooding forecast under the condition that the sea wall breaks over.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provides a dynamic submergence forecasting method for a sea wall breaking dam under the action of typhoon storm surge.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
the invention comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: acquiring typhoon forecast data, and generating a wind field based on a refined grid;
acquiring typhoon forecasting time, path and air pressure parameters every 6 hours by connecting a meteorological website, and manufacturing a circular wind field by using a Jelesninanski typhoon model formula;
Figure BDA0003495917550000011
Figure BDA0003495917550000021
wherein R is the maximum wind speed radius; r is the distance from the calculation point to the center of the typhoon; v0The typhoon moving speed; wRThe maximum wind speed of the typhoon; a ═ x- [ (x-x)c)sinθ+(y-yc)cosθ]；B＝(x-xc)cosθ-(y-yc)sinθ；(x,y)、(xc,yc) Respectively calculating point coordinates and typhoon center coordinates; theta is the inflow angle (theta is 10 degrees when R is less than or equal to R in calculation)>1.2R theta takes 25 deg., the remaining theta is linearly interpolated between 10 deg. and 25 deg.); p0Is the central air pressure of typhoon, P∞Atmospheric pressure at infinity (1010 hPa in calculation); beta is the attenuation coefficient of the wind speed distance of the typhoon;
Figure BDA0003495917550000022
respectively, unit vectors on the coordinate axes.
Maximum wind velocity calculation wind-pressure relationship proposed by ATKINSON-HOLLIDY (1977) was used:
WR＝3.029(P∞-P0)0.644 (3)
the maximum wind speed radius is given by the empirical relationship as follows:
R＝RR-0.4(P0-900)+0.01(P0-900)2 (4)
P0is the central air pressure (hPa), R is the maximum wind speed radius, RRThe recommended value is 40, which is an empirical constant, and can be adjusted by fitting accuracy of the air pressure or the wind speed.
Step two: forecasting typhoon storm tide level and typhoon wave parameters
And (3) establishing a storm surge and wave mathematical model, inputting the typhoon field obtained in the step one into the storm surge mathematical model to calculate and obtain storm surge level field forecast data, inputting the obtained typhoon field and the storm surge level field obtained by forecasting into the wave mathematical model, and calculating to obtain parameters such as the height, direction and the like of the storm surge. The two mathematical models only calculate storm surge and wave parameters in front of the dike, and do not calculate land flooding.
Step three: calculating the overtopping amount of the sea wall, and judging the risk of the sea wall breaking over
Inputting the structural types of the top elevation of the seawall embankment, the slope protection surface and the like, calculating the sea wall overtopping amount Q in the typhoon process by using an empirical formula in Zhejiang sea pond engineering technical regulation, and under the windless condition:
Figure BDA0003495917550000031
in the formula: where A, B is the coefficient value, T is the wave period(s),
Figure BDA0003495917550000032
is the average wave height (m) in front of the dike,
Figure BDA0003495917550000033
front wave of the dike, KΔRoughness and permeability coefficient of the facing structure, HcHeight (m) from the top of the wave-blocking wall to the static water level (designed high tide level), and g is gravity acceleration (9.81 m/s)2)；
The windy wave quantity is multiplied by a wind correction factor K' under the windless condition:
Figure BDA0003495917550000034
in the formula WfA coefficient dependent on the wind speed, whose value is:
Figure BDA0003495917550000035
w between the above three wind speedsfThe value is obtained by linear interpolation according to the wind speed, theta is the slope angle (DEG) of the tide side slope of the seawall, and R is the climbing value (m) of the waves on the seawall.
According to the design specification of the sea wall engineering (GB/T51015-2014), determining the wave-crossing threshold Q of the broken sea wall according to the structure type of the sea wallcrComparing the calculated wave-crossing quantity value with a threshold value, and simultaneously calculating the tidal level H and the levee top height H0The comparison is carried out, and the two cases are divided into the following two cases:
(1)0≤Q<Qcrthe seawall has no risk of breaking the seawall;
(2)Q>Qcrthe sea wall breaks; or H>H0And the sea wall breaks after breaking.
Step four: processing the model mesh according to the condition that the sea wall breaks through the sea wall, and performing submergence calculation;
establishing two storm surge mathematical models, wherein one is a land storm surge submergence calculation mathematical model only considering the land range, and the applicable condition is that only a small amount of surge is generated and the dike is not broken; and the other sea-land storm surge inundation calculation mathematical model considering the sea area and land area ranges has the application condition that the sea dike breaks over. And step four, determining to call one model of the sea wall to perform inundation calculation according to the risk of the sea wall breaking through the sea wall determined in the step three.
(1) Q is 0, no overtopping amount occurs, the sea wall is judged to have no occurrence of the flooding break, and the rear land area is not submerged;
(2)0<Q<Qcrwhen a small amount of overtopping amount occurs but does not exceed the threshold value of the breakwater overtopping amount of the sea wall, calling a land storm surge submergence calculation mathematical model with the sea wall as a boundary, taking the overtopping amount as an input boundary, and calculating the submergence range and the submergence depth of the land without participating in calculation in the sea area;
(3)Q>Qcrif the wave overtopping amount is larger than the threshold value of the breakwater overtopping amount of the sea dike, namely the breakwater happens, and the breakwater treatment is carried out on the sea dike grids at the time of the breakwater; or H>H0When the sea wall breaks over, the sea wall is also broken, and the sea wall is called to overtake the sea and land area due to the further change of the wave quantity or the water inflow after the sea wall breaks overAnd (4) calculating the land submerged range and the submerged water depth by using a wave mathematical model. The sea wall collapse treatment automatically reduces the height of the sea wall collapse position to the same height as the rear land area.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
(1) and automatically acquiring typhoon forecast data including time, path and air pressure, and calculating to obtain an empirical wind field.
(2) Based on a mathematical physics equation, the correlation coupling calculation of storm surge and waves is realized by establishing a mathematical model of a fine grid and a terrain in front of a dike, so that the forecast accuracy of the storm surge and the waves is improved.
(3) According to the judgment result of the breakwater of the seawall, automatically selecting and calling storm surge submergence calculation mathematical models of different calculation areas, correcting the grid elevation of the seawall position or adjusting the seawall as an open boundary, and calculating the land submergence range and the water depth.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the steps of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of computer program control.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of mathematical model mesh processing.
Detailed Description
Example (b): a method for forecasting dynamic flooding of a sea wall in a breakwater burst under the action of typhoon storm surge comprises the steps of establishing a set of refined grids, a set of storm surge-wave coupling models and a set of computer control program which can be connected with all calculation models in series and can be used for judging the adjustment models after the breakwater burst to set up computational flooding, wherein the schematic flow of the computer control program is shown in figure 2, and the specific steps of the embodiment are shown in figure 1:
the method comprises the following steps: acquiring typhoon forecast data, and generating a wind field based on a refined grid
Inputting a typhoon time period and automatically acquiring typhoon forecast time, path and air pressure parameters by connecting a meteorological website;
and establishing a refined grid, wherein the resolution of the open sea boundary grid is 55km, the resolution of the offshore grid is 100-300 m, and the resolution of the offshore grid in the research area is 100 m.
Manufacturing a circular wind field by using a Jelesninanski typhoon model formula, and interpolating the wind speed into manufactured refined grids;
step two: forecasting typhoon storm tide level and typhoon wave parameters
Establishing a storm surge and wave mathematical model, inputting the typhoon field obtained in the step one into the storm surge model to calculate and obtain storm surge level field forecast data, inputting the obtained typhoon field and the storm surge level field obtained by forecasting into the wave mathematical model, and calculating to obtain parameters such as the wave height, the wave direction and the like of the typhoon;
the storm surge model governing equation comprises a continuity equation and a momentum equation in the x, y directions:
Figure BDA0003495917550000051
Figure BDA0003495917550000052
Figure BDA0003495917550000053
wherein t is time; x and y are Cartesian plane coordinates; eta is tidal elevation; d is the depth of the still water; h ═ η + d is the total water depth;
Figure BDA0003495917550000054
is the component of the average flow velocity in the x and y directions; s is source and sink discharge amount; u. ofs、vsThe x-direction and y-direction velocity components of the displacement of the source item; f is the coefficient of Coriolis force: (
Figure BDA0003495917550000061
Latitude, Ω is earth rotation speed); g is the acceleration of gravity; rho is the density of the seawater; rho0Is the reference water density; sxx、Sxy、Syx、SyyIs a radiation stress tensor component; t isijThe lateral stress of water particles including viscosityThe model adopts a vortex viscosity coefficient, and carries out sum estimation on the forces according to a vertical average flow velocity gradient field, and the sum can be calculated according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003495917550000062
in the formula: a is the coefficient of the horizontal vortex viscosity, which can be calculated according to the following formulas:
Figure BDA0003495917550000063
in the model by inputting CsTo determine the value of A, SijThe capture is automatically computed by the system.
τsx、τsyThe components of sea surface wind friction resistance in the x and y directions are obtained; tau isbx、τbyThe components of the friction resistance in the x and y directions of the seabed can be determined according to the following formulas:
Figure BDA0003495917550000064
in the model, simulation of seabed friction resistance is realized by inputting a Manning coefficient M value.
Initial conditions for the above equation set:
h(x,y)|t＝0＝h0(x,y)
u(x,y)|t＝0＝u0(x,y)
v(x,y)|t＝0＝v0(x,y)
boundary conditions:
water boundary: h (x, y, t) ═ h*(x, y, t), with "+" representing a known value;
land boundary:
Figure BDA0003495917550000065
the normal direction flow velocity is zero.
The wave mathematical model adopts a SWAN model, the SWAN model can describe the evolution of a wave field under specific wind, flow and underwater terrain conditions in a shallow water area, and a control equation is as follows:
Figure BDA0003495917550000066
in the formula, N is the wave action quantity, sigma is the relative frequency of the wave, theta is the wave direction, and the S term is the source and sink term.
The first term at the left end in the formula is the local change of the wave action quantity; the second and third terms are the propagation of the action quantity in the geographic space, where CxAnd CyThe propagation velocities of the amount of wave action in the x and y directions, respectively; the fourth term is the relative frequency change due to water depth and current changes, where CσIs the propagation velocity of the wave action quantity in frequency space; the fifth term is water depth and flow. The wave generated is refracted, wherein CθIs the propagation velocity of the wave action quantity in the wave direction space. The dispersion of the wave action quantity equation is based on implicit difference in cartesian coordinates, and fixed time steps are adopted for wave propagation and source terms.
Step three: calculating the overtopping amount of the sea wall, and judging the risk of the sea wall breaking over
Inputting the structural types of the top elevation, the slope protection surface and the like of the seawall embankment, and calculating the sea wall overtopping amount by using an empirical formula in Zhejiang sea pond engineering technical provisions; according to the design specification of the sea wall engineering (GB/T51015-2014), determining the wave-crossing threshold Q of the broken sea wall according to the structure type of the sea wallcrComparing the calculated wave-crossing quantity value with a threshold value, and simultaneously calculating the tidal level H and the levee top height H0And comparing to judge the risk of the sea wall breaking over.
Step four: the model mesh is processed according to the condition that the sea wall breaks through the sea wall, and flooding calculation is performed, which is schematically described below with reference to fig. 3.
Establishing two storm surge mathematical models, wherein one is a land storm surge submergence calculation mathematical model only considering the land range, and the applicable condition is that the dam break is not caused by a small amount of surge; and the other sea-land storm surge inundation calculation mathematical model considering the sea area and land area ranges has the application condition that the sea dike breaks over. And step four, determining to call one model of the sea wall to perform inundation calculation according to the risk of the sea wall breaking through the sea wall determined in the step three. (1) Q is 0, no overtopping amount occurs, and the sea wall is judged to have no occurrence of the flooding break, namely no flooding behind the land;
(2)0<Q<Qcrif a small amount of overtopping occurs but the threshold value of the overtopping amount of the breakwater of the sea wall is not exceeded, adopting a model 2 in the graph 3, only considering the range of the sea wall and the inner land area, calling a land area storm surge submergence calculation mathematical model with the sea wall as a boundary, inputting physical quantity with the overtopping amount as the boundary, and calculating the submergence range and the submergence depth of the land area;
(3)Q>Qcrif the wave overtopping amount is larger than the threshold value of the breakwater overtopping amount of the sea dike, namely the breakwater happens, and the breakwater treatment is carried out on the sea dike grids at the time of the breakwater; or when the storm tide level is higher than the elevation of the embankment top, embankment is broken after the embankment is broken. And calling a storm surge mathematical model of the sea and land area because the surge amount or the water inflow of the sea wall is further changed after the sea wall breaks over. After the breakwater, the elevation of the top of the dike is reduced to the same elevation as that of the land area behind the dike, and as the wave-crossing amount or the water inflow after the breakwater is broken is changed along with the elevation of the top of the dike, the model 1 in the figure 3 is adopted to calculate the submerging range and the submerging depth of the land area.
In the typhoon period, typhoon forecast parameters are automatically updated every 6 hours, and the submerging range and the submerging water depth are dynamically updated.
In conclusion, the method can automatically acquire typhoon data, forecast storm tide level and typhoon waves and calculate overtopping amount, judge the risk of the sea wall breaking by utilizing the overtopping amount threshold value determined by the sea wall structure parameters, and adjust and dynamically calculate the submergence range and water depth of the land area behind the sea wall according to the typhoon forecast data.
While the invention has been described in connection with a preferred embodiment, it is not intended to limit the invention, and it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes may be made and equivalents may be substituted for elements thereof without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.

Claims (6)

1. A dynamic flooding forecasting method for a sea wall breaking dam under the action of typhoon storm surge comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: acquiring typhoon forecast data, and generating a wind field based on a refined grid;
step two: forecasting storm tide level and typhoon wave parameters through a storm tide numerical model and a wave numerical model;
step three: calculating the overtopping amount by inputting storm tide level, wave height and sea wall structure parameters, and judging the risk of the overtopping breakwater according to the sea wall structure and a breakwater threshold value of the overtopping amount;
step four: and processing the model mesh according to the condition that the sea wall breaks through the sea wall, and performing dynamic submergence calculation.
2. The method for forecasting dynamic flooding of the sea wall during the burst of the sea wall under the action of the typhoon storm surge according to claim 1, wherein the first step is specifically as follows:
the typhoon forecasting time, path and air pressure parameters are obtained by connecting with a meteorological website, and a circular wind field is manufactured by using a Jelesninanski typhoon model formula.
3. The dynamic flood forecasting method for the burst bank of the sea wall under the action of the typhoon storm surge according to claim 1, wherein the second step is specifically as follows:
and (3) establishing a storm surge and wave mathematical model, inputting the typhoon forecast data obtained in the step one into the storm surge mathematical model to calculate to obtain storm surge potential field forecast data, inputting the obtained typhoon data and the storm surge potential field obtained by forecasting into the wave mathematical model, and calculating to obtain the height and direction of the storm wave.
4. The method for forecasting dynamic flooding of the sea wall during the burst of the sea wall under the action of the typhoon storm surge according to claim 1, wherein the third step is specifically as follows:
inputting the elevation of the top of the sea wall embankment and the structural type of the slope protection surface, and calculating the sea wall overtopping quantity Q by using an empirical formula;
according to the design specification of sea wall engineering, determining the over-sea threshold Q of the burst sea wall according to the structural type of the sea wallcrComparing the calculated sea wall overtopping amount with the overtopping amount threshold value, and simultaneously calculating the tide level H and the embankment top elevation H0The comparison is carried out, and the two cases are divided into the following two cases:
(1)0≤Q<Qcrthe seawall has no risk of breaking the seawall;
(2)Q>Qcrthe sea wall breaks; or H>H0And the seawall breaks after the embankment is broken.
5. The dynamic flood forecasting method for the burst bank of the sea wall under the action of the typhoon storm surge according to claim 4, wherein the fourth step is specifically as follows:
(1) q is 0, no overtopping amount occurs, and the sea wall is judged to have no breakwater;
(2)0<Q<Qcrwhen a small amount of overtopping amount occurs but does not exceed the threshold value of the breakwater overtopping amount of the sea wall, calling a land storm surge submergence calculation mathematical model with the sea wall as a boundary, taking the overtopping amount as an input boundary, and calculating the submergence range and the submergence depth of the land without participating in calculation in the sea area;
(3)Q>Qcrif the wave overtopping amount is larger than the threshold value of the breakwater overtopping amount of the sea dike, namely the breakwater happens, and the breakwater treatment is carried out on the sea dike grids at the time of the breakwater; or H>H0And (3) carrying out breaking treatment on the dam after the dam is broken, calling a storm surge and overtopping mathematical model of the sea and land area because the overtopping amount or the water inflow of the dam after the dam is broken is further changed, and calculating the submerging range and the submerging depth of the land area.
6. The dynamic dam flooding forecasting method for the sea wall breakwater under the typhoon storm surge according to claim 5, wherein the collapse process is to automatically reduce the elevation of the sea wall breakwater position to the same elevation as the rear land area.
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CN115840975A (en) * 2022-11-15 2023-03-24 广东省水利水电科学研究院 Storm surge water-increasing embankment early warning method, system, device and storage medium
US11868690B1 (en) 2023-08-30 2024-01-09 Pearl River Water Resources Research Institute Method, device, electronic equipment and medium for analyzing disaster prevention and mitigation effectiveness of ecological seawall

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