CN114418424A - Photovoltaic power station power generation amount evaluation method considering initial inventory configuration - Google Patents

Photovoltaic power station power generation amount evaluation method considering initial inventory configuration Download PDF

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CN114418424A
CN114418424A CN202210091817.9A CN202210091817A CN114418424A CN 114418424 A CN114418424 A CN 114418424A CN 202210091817 A CN202210091817 A CN 202210091817A CN 114418424 A CN114418424 A CN 114418424A
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郭霖瀚
李瑞阳
王禹
张栎镭
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Beihang University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic power station power generation amount evaluation method considering initial inventory configuration, which comprises the following steps of: establishing a spare part balance relational expression of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter considering initial inventory configuration; describing an inventory level state of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system by using a continuous time Markov chain; solving a Markov state transition rate matrix of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter according to the inventory level state, the fault rate and the delivery rate; determining the steady state time of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and expressing the relation between the steady state probability and the transfer rate; solving the steady state probability of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter; calculating the expected power generation loss of the whole photovoltaic power station according to the calculated steady-state probability of each state; the corresponding expected net amount of power generation is evaluated. The scheme has good applicability and is suitable for all micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation systems with the characteristics and similar products.

Description

Photovoltaic power station power generation amount evaluation method considering initial inventory configuration
Technical Field
The invention relates to the fields of micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system power generation performance evaluation, inventory theory, continuous time Markov chain and the like. In particular to a photovoltaic power station power generation amount evaluation method considering initial inventory configuration.
Background
Renewable energy is increasingly valued worldwide, and photovoltaic power generation technology is an important field in renewable energy technology. The demand for photovoltaic power generation technology has promoted the development and application of new technology, and a micro inverter with high reliability and long service life is one of the new technologies widely applied to photovoltaic power generation systems in recent years. Because the micro inverter and the photovoltaic panel are integrated in a mounting space during mounting, the system design is very compact, the flexibility and modularization of the system are enhanced, and the expandability is strong. The photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter leads the trend of photovoltaic power generation development, and the future installation scale is larger and larger. The wide application of the photovoltaic power generation system can relieve the resource, environment and economic pressure brought by the traditional thermal power generation to a certain extent, and assist in realizing the carbon peak reaching and carbon neutralization targets in China and promoting the progress of energy conservation and emission reduction career of the whole society.
The photovoltaic power station is composed of a plurality of micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation systems, and each micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system is composed of a photovoltaic module and a micro-inverter. When a photovoltaic power station is put into operation and used, due to the fact that related maintenance and guarantee work can be brought by faults of the photovoltaic power generation system, when one micro inverter photovoltaic power generation system breaks down at a certain random moment, the power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power station can be reduced. Therefore, the power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power station has strong correlation with whether each micro inverter photovoltaic power generation system works normally or not. Because the number of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation systems installed in the photovoltaic power station is large, the occurrence of faults is increased, and the faults further cause the shutdown of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system module, so that the power generation loss of the photovoltaic power station is caused. In order to avoid the loss, a warehouse is needed to be established to store spare parts, and when the working micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system breaks down, the spare parts in the warehouse are used for replacement and maintenance, so that the downtime is reduced, and the loss caused by the power generation amount is reduced. When no spare parts exist in the warehouse, if the operating micro inverter photovoltaic power generation system fails, no spare parts can be replaced, and the loss of the generated energy can be caused. Therefore, in the spare part inventory strategy, when the number of spare parts in the warehouse is reduced to a certain threshold value, the spare parts are ordered to supplement the warehouse inventory, and after the ordered spare parts arrive, the failed photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter is replaced to reduce the power generation loss caused by the downtime as much as possible, and at this time, the spare part inventory strategy needs to be considered to evaluate the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station of the micro inverter.
Therefore, the above problems do not draw attention, and only the warehouse is managed by experience, so that the shutdown of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter caused by insufficient spare parts is reduced as much as possible, the conditions of how to reasonably balance the inventory of the spare parts and the inventory control are realized, and the evaluation of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station is realized, and a urgent need to be solved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention mainly aims to provide an evaluation method of the power generation amount of a photovoltaic power station considering initial inventory configuration, which is characterized in that a continuous time Markov chain method is utilized to establish a state model of the inventory level of a photovoltaic power generation system of a micro inverter in the photovoltaic power station by considering a batch ordering inventory control strategy with the initial inventory configuration, so that the expectation of the shortage amount of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter in a given period of time is calculated, the expectation of the power generation loss in the period of time is calculated, and the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station of the micro inverter is evaluated.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the technical scheme that:
a photovoltaic power plant power generation capacity evaluation method considering initial inventory configuration comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a spare part balance relational expression of a photovoltaic power generation system of a micro inverter considering initial inventory configuration;
step 2, describing the stock level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter by adopting a continuous time Markov chain;
step 3, solving a Markov state transition rate matrix of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter according to the stock level state, the fault rate and the delivery rate of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter;
step 4, determining the steady state time of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and expressing the relation between the steady state probability and the transfer rate;
step 5, solving the steady state probability of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter;
step 6, calculating the expected power generation loss of the whole photovoltaic power station according to the obtained steady-state probabilities of the states;
and 7, evaluating the corresponding expected net power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station according to the expected power generation loss.
Further, the step 1 comprises:
setting the installed quantity N, the initial inventory quantity S, the current inventory quantity SL, the inventory shortage quantity BO, a batch of order quantity Q and an order point S of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and constructing an inventory control strategy:
Figure BDA0003489498340000031
wherein, IP represents stock position potential, OS represents unfinished order number, Q is S-S, and the value range of the stock position potential IP is [ S +1, S ] according to the relational expression and the ordering strategy.
Further, the step 2 comprises:
x (t) is the inventory level of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t, when the inventory level X (t) is more than or equal to 0, the inventory quantity of spare parts stored in a warehouse is represented, when the inventory level X (t) is less than 0, the warehouse does not have the inventory spare parts, the fault parts cannot be replaced, and the requirement of the spare parts cannot be met, namely the opposite number of X (t) is equal to the inventory shortage quantity, and the inventory shortage quantity is equal to the fault parts quantity;
when the stock shortage quantity is N, the photovoltaic power station stops working, and the states characterized by X (t) are { X (t) ═ S, X (t) ═ S-1., X (t) · 0., X (t) ═ N } total N + S +1 states;
a row vector is used to represent the probability of each state at a certain time, where pi (t) ═ p (x (t) ═ S), p (x (t) ═ S-1), p (x (t) ═ S-2), …, p (x (t) ═ N) ]; wherein pi (t) represents a state probability row vector of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t; x (t) represents the inventory level of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system at time t; m is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a positive value or 0, wherein the value range is m belongs to [0, S ], and when X (t) is m, the stock number of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t is m; r is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a negative value, wherein the value range is r belongs to [ -N, -1], and when X (t) is r, the stock shortage quantity of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t is represented as-r; p (x (t) ═ m), where m ∈ [0, S ] denotes a state probability that the stock quantity is m when the stock level x (t) is equal to m at time t; p (x (t) ═ r), r ∈ [ -N, -1] denotes the state probability that the stock shortage number is-r at time t when stock level x (t) equals r.
Further, the step 3 comprises:
let tau represent delivery rate of photovoltaic power station of the micro inverter, the time obeys the exponential distribution of parameter lambda of the fault interval of the photovoltaic power generation system of the said micro inverter; constructing a Markov state transition rate matrix:
Figure BDA0003489498340000041
a represents a transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain; i represents the number of rows of the matrix A; j represents the number of columns of matrix A; a [ i, j ] represents the ith row and jth column element in the matrix A; n represents the installed number of the photovoltaic power generation systems of the micro inverters; s represents the initial inventory quantity; q represents the batch order quantity.
Further, the step 4 comprises:
calculating the steady state time from the transition rate matrix of the continuous time Markov chain:
Figure BDA0003489498340000042
tathe method comprises the steps of representing steady-state time, namely, the state probability of each state of the photovoltaic power station tends to a fixed value after the photovoltaic power station starts to work for a period of time, wherein the period of time is the steady-state time; e represents the calculation precision, and n represents the number of characteristic values of a transfer rate matrix A of the continuous time Markov chain; xinAn nth eigenvalue of a transition rate matrix A representing a continuous time Markov chain; r (xi)n) Representing the real part of the nth de-0 eigenvalue of the matrix A;
according to a continuous time Markov chain state transition matrix established by the installed quantity of the photovoltaic power station and the inventory control strategy, each state probability in a steady state satisfies the following equation:
0[1×(N+S+1)]＝π[1×(N+s+1)]A[(N+s+1)×(N+S+1)]
in the formula, A represents a transfer rate matrix of a continuous time Markov chain, and pi represents a steady-state probability row vector of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system.
Further, the step 5 comprises:
and (4) solving the steady-state probability of each state according to the relation in the step 4, wherein the steady-state probability is as follows:
π＝[p(X＝S),p(X＝S-1),p(X＝S-2),…,p(X＝-N)]
in the formula, pi represents a steady-state probability row vector of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter; x represents the inventory level of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a steady state; m is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a positive value or 0, wherein the value range is m belongs to [0, S ], and when X is m, the stock number of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter in a stable state is m; r is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a negative value, wherein the value range is r ∈ [ -N, -1], and when X is r, the number of stock shortages of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter in a steady state is-r; p (X is m), m belongs to [0, S ] represents the steady-state probability that the stock quantity is m when the stock level X is equal to m; p (X ═ r), r ∈ [ -N, -1] represents the steady state probability that the inventory shortage quantity is-r when inventory level X equals r.
Further, the step 6 comprises:
the expected energy loss E [ LE ] over a given period of time is calculated as follows:
Figure BDA0003489498340000051
in the above formula
Figure BDA0003489498340000052
The average value of the hourly generated energy of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter is the rated nominal value of the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, or the statistical value of the collected data in the running process of the power station is adopted; t represents a given period of time; x represents the inventory level of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a steady state; r is used for counting, and recording the value when the stock level is a negative value, wherein the value range is r belongs to-N-1]When the X is equal to r, the inventory shortage quantity of the micro inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a steady state is represented as-r; p (X ═ r), r ∈ [ -N, -1]Representing the steady-state probability of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system when the inventory shortage number is-r, since the inventory shortage number is equal to the fault number, p (X-r), r e [ -N, -1]The steady-state probability when the fault number of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter is-r is represented; LE represents the energy loss of the photovoltaic plant; e [ LE ]]Representing the expected energy loss of the photovoltaic plant over a given period of time.
Further, the step 7 includes: from said expected power loss, evaluating the expected net power generation E [ EG ] of the photovoltaic plant for a corresponding given period of time as follows:
Figure BDA0003489498340000061
n represents the installed number of the photovoltaic power generation systems of the micro inverters; EG represents the net power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power plant; e [ EH ] represents the expected net amount of power generated by the photovoltaic plant over a corresponding given period of time.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides a photovoltaic power station power generation amount evaluation method considering initial inventory configuration, which comprises the following steps: establishing a spare part balance relational expression of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter considering initial inventory configuration; describing an inventory level state of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system by using a continuous time Markov chain; solving a Markov state transition rate matrix of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter according to the stock level state, the fault rate and the delivery rate of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter; determining the steady state time of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and expressing the relation between the steady state probability and the transfer rate; solving the steady state probability of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter; calculating the expected power generation loss of the whole photovoltaic power station according to the calculated steady-state probabilities of the states; and evaluating the corresponding expected net power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station according to the expected power generation loss. The method can determine the stock level state of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system through the continuous time Markov chain, so that the expected shortage quantity is predicted, and the expected power generation loss in a given time is obtained according to the expected power generation loss, so that the power generation quantity of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power station in the given time is determined. The scheme has good applicability and is suitable for all micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation systems with the characteristics and similar products.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for evaluating power generation capacity of a photovoltaic power plant in consideration of initial inventory configuration according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of an inventory control strategy provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a diagram of an inventory level state transition provided by an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical means, the creation characteristics, the achievement purposes and the effects of the invention easy to understand, the invention is further described with the specific embodiments.
In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the terms "upper", "lower", "inner", "outer", "front", "rear", "both ends", "one end", "the other end", and the like indicate orientations or positional relationships based on those shown in the drawings, and are only for convenience of description and simplicity of description, but do not indicate or imply that the referred device or element must have a specific orientation, be constructed in a specific orientation, and be operated, and thus, should not be construed as limiting the present invention. Furthermore, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance.
In the description of the present invention, it is to be noted that, unless otherwise explicitly specified or limited, the terms "mounted," "disposed," "connected," and the like are to be construed broadly, such as "connected," which may be fixedly connected, detachably connected, or integrally connected; can be mechanically or electrically connected; they may be connected directly or indirectly through intervening media, or they may be interconnected between two elements. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood in specific cases to those skilled in the art.
The invention provides a photovoltaic power station power generation amount evaluation method considering initial inventory configuration, which comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a spare part balance relational expression of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter considering initial inventory configuration.
The installed scale of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system is N, one micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system is composed of PV plates, micro-inverters, assemblies and the like, and the initial inventory number of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system is S. When a certain photovoltaic power generation system in a normally working photovoltaic power station has a fault, if spare parts are left in a warehouse, the spare parts are replaced, and the current inventory number SL-1 is obtained, but when no spare parts exist in the warehouse, the situation that the requirement of one spare part is not met currently is shown, namely the shortage BO +1 is obtained. Therefore, in the inventory control strategy, when the current inventory number SL is reduced to a negative number, it indicates that there is no spare part in the warehouse and the absolute value of the inventory number SL is the shortage BO, and also indicates that the number of currently operable micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation systems is less than the installed scale N. When the current inventory number SL is reduced to a certain threshold value, an order needs to be issued to order the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system for replacement and maintenance, and the order quantity of one batch is Q. In this inventory control strategy, an order point S is established, when the current inventory quantity SL is reduced to S, an order is issued once, the order quantity Q is S-S, but after the order is issued, spare parts cannot be immediately delivered to the warehouse, so that in the time waiting for the arrival of the spare parts, since the photovoltaic system is still running, a new spare part demand is brought by a fault in the running process, and when the current inventory quantity SL is reduced to order condition thresholds S-Q, S-2Q, … and S-kQ (when the current inventory quantity is negative, the inventory shortage quantity is BO, and BO is equal to the opposite number of SL), an order with the order quantity Q is issued once. Where k represents the number of orders, representing the kth order of spare parts. Orders that are not shipped to the power station are incomplete orders, the number of incomplete orders being denoted by OS. The relationship between the stock position potential IP and the current stock quantity SL, the single batch order quantity Q, the incomplete order quantity OS, and the stock shortage quantity BO is:
Figure BDA0003489498340000081
according to the relational expression and the ordering strategy, the value range of the stock potential IP is [ S +1, S ]. When the stock shortage number, that is, BO, is not 0, there is a case where the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system has failed but no spare parts can be replaced, and the number W of microinverter photovoltaic power generation systems currently operating is smaller than the installed scale N.
According to the relation equation between the stock potential IP and the current stock quantity SL, the single batch order quantity Q, the incomplete order quantity OS and the short shortage BO, when the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter of the photovoltaic power station breaks down, when the stock quantity SL of spare parts in a warehouse is a positive value, the spare parts are used for replacing the broken parts, and the normal work of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter is ensured. When the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter of the photovoltaic power station has a fault, when the inventory quantity SL of spare parts in the inventory is 0 or a negative value, no spare parts are replaced, so that the quantity W of the currently working photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter is reduced, and the shortage BO is the opposite quantity of the inventory quantity SL at the moment. And the installed scale is N, and when the number W of the photovoltaic power generation systems of the currently working micro inverters is reduced to 0, the photovoltaic power station stops generating power.
And 2, describing the inventory level state of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system by adopting a continuous time Markov chain.
The system can be described by a plurality of states for the relationship between the stock position potential IP and the current stock quantity SL, the single order quantity Q, the incomplete order quantity OS, and the short shortage quantity BO according to step 1. When the stock quantity SL is a positive number or 0, the shortage BO is 0, and the status conditions of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system include a plurality of stock quantity statuses from the initial stock quantity S of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system to the stock quantity 0; when the current stock quantity SL is a negative value and the shortage BO is the opposite thereof, the status conditions of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system include various shortage quantity statuses from 1 to W to 0 (i.e., the shortage BO is equal to the installed scale N) since the photovoltaic power station stops the power generation operation when the number W of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation systems currently operating is reduced to 0. Thus, for this system, a continuous time markov chain is employed to describe the inventory level state of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system.
X (t) is the inventory level of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t, when the inventory level X (t) is more than or equal to 0, the inventory quantity of spare parts stored in a warehouse is represented, when the inventory level X (t) is less than 0, the warehouse does not have the spare parts stored, the fault parts cannot be replaced, and the requirement of the spare parts cannot be met, namely the opposite number of X (t) is equal to the inventory shortage quantity, the inventory shortage quantity is equal to the fault parts quantity, the state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the photovoltaic power station is modeled by using a continuous time Markov chain (X (t), t is more than or equal to 0, when the inventory is in shortage, the fault of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter cannot be replaced and maintained timely, when the quantity W of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter which works at present is reduced to 0 (namely the shortage BO is equal to the installed scale N), the photovoltaic power station stops working, so x (t) characterizes a total of N + S +1 states, x (t) S-1, x (t) 0. Next, continuous-time Markov chain modeling is performed with the inventory level state.
A row vector is used to represent the probability of each state at a certain time, where pi (t) ═ p (x (t) ═ S), p (x (t) ═ S-1), p (x (t) ═ S-2), …, p (x (t) ═ N) ]; wherein pi (t) represents a state probability row vector of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t; x (t) represents the inventory level of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system at time t; m is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a positive value or 0, wherein the value range is m belongs to [0, S ], and when X (t) is m, the stock number of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t is m; r is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a negative value, wherein the value range is r belongs to [ -N, -1], and when X (t) is r, the stock shortage quantity of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t is represented as-r; p (x (t) ═ m), where m ∈ [0, S ] denotes a state probability that the stock quantity is m when the stock level x (t) is equal to m at time t; p (x (t) ═ r), r ∈ [ -N, -1] denotes the state probability that the stock shortage number is-r at time t when stock level x (t) equals r.
And 3, solving a Markov state transition rate matrix of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter according to the stock level state, the fault rate and the delivery rate of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter.
After a replenishment stock order is placed at the warehouse, from the time the order is placed to the time the order is completed, the order delivery time follows an exponential distribution with a parameter τ, also referred to as the delivery rate. The time between failures of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system follows an exponential distribution with a parameter λ. According to the above conditions, the inventory level state of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system can be modeled using a continuous time markov chain under consideration of the inventory control strategy of this type of photovoltaic power plant. A schematic of this inventory control strategy is shown in fig. 2.
As shown in fig. 3, a continuous time markov chain is established based on the inventory control strategy, the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system inventory levels represented by the various states, the failure rate, and the delivery rate. And (3) solving a state transition rate matrix, wherein according to the conditions between different rows and columns of the matrix, the transition rate calculation expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0003489498340000111
the expression represents the law of the values of elements in the transfer rate matrix, and A represents the transfer rate matrix of the continuous time Markov chain; i represents the number of rows of the matrix A; j represents the number of columns of matrix A; a [ i, j ] represents the ith row and jth column element in the matrix A; n represents the installed number of the photovoltaic power generation systems of the micro inverters; s represents the initial inventory quantity; q represents the batch order quantity.
And 4, determining the steady state time of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and expressing the relation between the steady state probability and the transfer rate.
Calculating the steady state time from the transition rate matrix of the continuous time Markov chain:
Figure BDA0003489498340000112
tathe method comprises the steps of representing steady-state time, namely, the state probability of each state of the photovoltaic power station tends to a fixed value after the photovoltaic power station starts to work for a period of time, wherein the period of time is the steady-state time; e represents the calculation precision; n represents the number of eigenvalues of the transfer rate matrix A of the continuous-time Markov chain; xinAn nth eigenvalue of a transition rate matrix A representing a continuous time Markov chain; r (xi)n) Representing the real part of the nth de-0 eigenvalue of the matrix A;
the continuous time Markov chain and the state transition matrix established according to the scale of the power station and the inventory control strategy, each state probability at steady state satisfies the following equation:
0[1×(N+S+1)]＝π[1×(N+S+1)]A[(N+S+1)×(N+S+1)]
in the formula, A is a state transition rate matrix, and pi represents a steady-state probability row vector of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter.
Furthermore, the steady-state probabilities for the respective states also satisfy the relationship:
Figure BDA0003489498340000113
m is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a positive value or 0, wherein the value range is m belongs to [0, S ], and when X is m, the stock number of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter in a stable state is m; r is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a negative value, wherein the value range is r ∈ [ -N, -1], and when X is r, the number of stock shortages of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter in a steady state is-r; p (X is m), m belongs to [0, S ] represents the steady-state probability that the stock quantity is m when the stock level X is equal to m; p (X ═ r), r ∈ [ -N, -1] represents the steady state probability that the inventory shortage quantity is-r when inventory level X equals r.
And 5, solving the steady state probability of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter.
According to the relation in the step 4, solving the probability of each state when t tends to be infinite, namely the steady-state probability:
π＝[p(X＝S),p(X＝S-1),p(X＝S-2),…,p(X＝-N)]
in the formula, pi represents a steady-state probability row vector of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter; x represents the inventory level of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a steady state; m is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a positive value or 0, wherein the value range is m belongs to [0, S ], and when X is m, the stock number of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter in a stable state is m; r is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a negative value, wherein the value range is r ∈ [ -N, -1], and when X is r, the number of stock shortages of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter in a steady state is-r; p (X is m), m belongs to [0, S ] represents the steady-state probability that the stock quantity is m when the stock level X is equal to m; p (X ═ r), r ∈ [ -N, -1] represents the steady state probability that the inventory shortage quantity is-r when inventory level X equals r.
And 6, calculating the expected power generation loss of the whole photovoltaic power station according to the obtained steady-state probabilities of the states. The expected power generation loss is calculated according to the average value of the power generation amount of each micro inverter photovoltaic power generation system per hour, and the average value of the power generation amount of each micro inverter photovoltaic power generation system per hour is obtained according to annual power generation data statistics or a rated nominal value of the micro inverter photovoltaic power generation system.
In order to evaluate the energy yield, in the invention, the expected energy loss is estimated by using the hourly power generation amount of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system proposed by the photovoltaic hourly power generation model, and the expected energy loss E [ LE ] in a given time can be calculated as follows:
Figure BDA0003489498340000131
in the above formula
Figure BDA0003489498340000132
The average value of the hourly generated energy of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter can be a rated nominal value of the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and can also be a statistic value of collected data in the running process of a power station; t represents a given period of time; x represents the inventory level of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a steady state; r is used for counting, and recording the value when the stock level is a negative value, wherein the value range is r belongs to [ -N, -1]When the X is equal to r, the inventory shortage quantity of the micro inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a steady state is represented as-r; p (X ═ r), r ∈ [ -N, -1]Representing the steady-state probability of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system when the inventory shortage number is-r, since the inventory shortage number is equal to the fault number, p (X-r), r e [ -N, -1]The steady-state probability when the fault number of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter is-r is represented; LE represents the energy loss of the photovoltaic plant; e [ LE ]]Representing the expected energy loss of the photovoltaic plant over a given period of time.
And 7, evaluating the corresponding expected net power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station according to the expected power generation loss.
And finally, according to the expected power generation loss E [ LE ] of the micro inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a given period of time, which is obtained in the step 6, the expected net power generation quantity E [ EG ] in the given period of time is obtained as follows:
Figure BDA0003489498340000133
n represents the installed number of the photovoltaic power generation systems of the micro inverters; EG represents the net power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power plant; e [ EG ] represents the expected net power generation of the photovoltaic power plant over a corresponding given period of time.
The following provides a more detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the examples.
Step 1, establishing a spare part balance relational expression of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter considering initial inventory configuration.
It is known that the installed scale of a certain photovoltaic power plant is 3000N, the initial stock quantity is 300S, when the stock quantity is reduced to 100S, a batch of orders with Q200 replacement parts is sent, and when the stock quantity is reduced from 100 by a multiple of 200 (when the stock quantity is negative, it represents a stock shortage), a batch of orders is sent. From this, the stock potential range is [101,300 ].
And 2, describing the inventory level state of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system by adopting a continuous time Markov chain.
X (t) represents the stock level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and the value range of the quantity W of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter which works at present is W belonging to [0,3000 ]; when W is 0, the power plant stops operating, so x (t) represents 3301 states in total, namely { x (t) ═ 300, x (t) ═ 299, x (t) ═ 298.
The probability of each state at time t is represented by a row vector, where pi (t) ═ p (x (t) ═ 300), p (x (t) ═ 299), p (x (t) ═ 298), …, and p (x (t) ═ 3000).
And 3, solving a Markov state transition rate matrix of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter according to the stock level state, the fault rate and the delivery rate of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter.
The failure rate lambda of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter of the power station is 1 multiplied by 10-5h-1Delivery time compliance τ ═ 1 × 10-3h-1H represents hour. The state transition matrix is as follows:
Figure BDA0003489498340000141
and 4, determining the steady state time of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and expressing the relation between the steady state probability and the transfer rate.
Given a calculation accuracy ∈ 10-4And solving a transfer rate matrix of the continuous time Markov chain to calculate the steady state time:
Figure BDA0003489498340000142
i.e. the steady state is entered at the initial state (the situation where the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system is fully intact) over 237.9922 hours.
The steady state probabilities for the respective states satisfy the relationship:
Figure BDA0003489498340000151
0[1×(3301)]＝π[1×(3301)]A[(3301)×(3301)]
and 5, solving the steady state probability of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter.
The steady state probability is:
π＝[p(X＝300),p(X＝299),p(X＝298),…,p(X＝-3000)]
and 6, calculating the expected power generation loss of the whole photovoltaic power station according to the obtained steady-state probabilities of the states.
Since the steady-state probabilities have been found, the relationship:
Figure BDA0003489498340000152
determining the expected power loss of the entire photovoltaic power plant over a given period of time, wherein
Figure BDA0003489498340000156
The average value of the hourly power generation amount of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a given time is given as
Figure BDA0003489498340000154
Figure BDA0003489498340000155
T is a given period of time, given as 8760 hours, p is a steady state probability of the state of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system, X represents a stock level state of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system at steady state, p (X ═ r), r ∈ [ -3000, -1]Representing the steady state probability when the inventory shortage quantity of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system is r. Substituting the formula to obtain: e [ LE ]]＝1.5742×105kW·h。
And 7, evaluating the corresponding expected net power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station according to the expected power generation loss.
According to the average value of the hourly power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter obtained in the step 6
Figure BDA0003489498340000153
And expected power generation loss E [ LE ] over a given period of time]Finally, the expected net power generation amount E [ EG ] in a given period of time is calculated]The following were used: e [ EG]＝2.9674×109kW.h. kW.h represents kilowatt-hour, energy unit.
The photovoltaic power station power generation amount evaluation method considering the initial inventory configuration, provided by the embodiment of the invention, comprises the following steps: establishing a spare part balance relational expression of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter considering initial inventory configuration; describing an inventory level state of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system by using a continuous time Markov chain; solving a Markov state transition rate matrix of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter according to the stock level state, the fault rate and the delivery rate of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter; determining the steady state time of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and expressing the relation between the steady state probability and the transfer rate; solving the steady state probability of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter; calculating the expected power generation loss of the whole photovoltaic power station according to the calculated steady-state probabilities of the states; and evaluating the corresponding expected net power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station according to the expected power generation loss. The scheme has good applicability and is suitable for all micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation systems with the characteristics and similar products.
The foregoing shows and describes the general principles and broad features of the present invention and advantages thereof. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, which are described in the specification and illustrated only to illustrate the principle of the present invention, but that various changes and modifications may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, which fall within the scope of the invention as claimed. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.

Claims (8)

1. A method for evaluating the power generation capacity of a photovoltaic power station by considering initial inventory configuration is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, establishing a spare part balance relational expression of a photovoltaic power generation system of a micro inverter considering initial inventory configuration;
step 2, describing the stock level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter by adopting a continuous time Markov chain;
step 3, solving a Markov state transition rate matrix of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter according to the stock level state, the fault rate and the delivery rate of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter;
step 4, determining the steady state time of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and expressing the relation between the steady state probability and the transfer rate;
step 5, solving the steady state probability of the inventory level state of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter;
step 6, calculating the expected power generation loss of the whole photovoltaic power station according to the obtained steady-state probabilities of the states;
and 7, evaluating the corresponding expected net power generation amount of the photovoltaic power station according to the expected power generation loss.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein step 1 comprises:
setting the installed quantity N, the initial inventory quantity S, the current inventory quantity SL, the inventory shortage quantity BO, a batch of order quantity Q and an order point S of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, and constructing an inventory control strategy:
Figure FDA0003489498330000011
wherein, IP represents stock position potential, OS represents unfinished order number, Q is S-S, and the value range of the stock position potential IP is [ S +1, S ] according to the relational expression and the ordering strategy.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein step 2 comprises:
x (t) is the stock level of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system at time t, when the stock level x (t) is greater than or equal to 0, the stock quantity of spare parts stored in the warehouse is represented, and when the stock level x (t) is less than 0, the stock quantity of spare parts in the warehouse is represented, the spare parts cannot be replaced and the requirement of the spare parts cannot be met, namely the opposite number of x (t) is equal to the stock shortage quantity, and the stock shortage quantity is equal to the quantity of the fault parts; the state of a photovoltaic power generation system of a micro inverter of a photovoltaic power station is modeled by adopting a continuous time Markov chain { X (t) > 0 };
when the stock shortage quantity is N, the photovoltaic power station stops working, and the states characterized by X (t) are { X (t) ═ S, X (t) ═ S-1., X (t) · 0., X (t) ═ N } total N + S +1 states;
a row vector is used to represent the probability of each state at a certain time, which is pi (t) ═ p (x (t) ═ S), p (x (t) ═ S-1), p (x (t) ═ S-2., p (x (t) ═ N) ]; wherein pi (t) represents a state probability row vector of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t; x (t) represents the inventory level of the microinverter photovoltaic power generation system at time t; m is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a positive value or 0, wherein the value range is m belongs to [0, S ], and when X (t) is m, the stock number of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t is m; r is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a negative value, wherein the value range is r belongs to [ -N, -1], and when X (t) is r, the stock shortage quantity of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter at the time t is represented as-r; p (x (t) ═ m), where m ∈ [0, S ] denotes a state probability that the stock quantity is m when the stock level x (t) is equal to m at time t; p (x (t) ═ r), r ∈ [ -N, -1] denotes the state probability that the stock shortage number is-r at time t when stock level x (t) equals r.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein step 3 comprises:
let tau represent delivery rate of photovoltaic power station of the micro inverter, the time obeys the exponential distribution of parameter lambda of the fault interval of the photovoltaic power generation system of the said micro inverter; constructing a Markov state transition rate matrix:
Figure FDA0003489498330000021
a represents a transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain; i represents the number of rows of the matrix A; j represents the number of columns of matrix A; a [ i, j ] represents the ith row and jth column element in the matrix A; n represents the installed number of the photovoltaic power generation systems of the micro inverters; s represents the initial inventory quantity; q represents the batch order quantity.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the step 4 comprises:
calculating the steady state time from the transition rate matrix of the continuous time Markov chain:
Figure FDA0003489498330000031
taindicating steady state time, i.e. the time elapsed for the photovoltaic plant to operate from the startThe state probability of each later state tends to a fixed value, and the period of time is steady-state time; e represents the calculation precision; n represents the number of eigenvalues of the transfer rate matrix A of the continuous-time Markov chain; xinAn nth eigenvalue of a transition rate matrix A representing a continuous time Markov chain; r (xi)n) Representing the real part of the nth de-0 eigenvalue of the matrix A;
according to a continuous time Markov chain state transition matrix established by the installed quantity of the photovoltaic power station and the inventory control strategy, each state probability in a steady state satisfies the following equation:
0[1×(N+S+1)]＝π[1×(N+S+1)]A[(N+S+1)×(N+S+1)]
in the formula, A represents a transfer rate matrix of a continuous time Markov chain, and pi represents a steady-state probability row vector of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the step 5 comprises:
and (4) solving the steady-state probability of each state according to the relation in the step 4, wherein the steady-state probability is as follows:
π＝[p(X＝S)，p(X＝S-1)，p(X＝S-2)，...，p(X＝-N)]
in the formula, pi represents a steady-state probability row vector of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter; x represents the inventory level of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a steady state; m is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a positive value or 0, wherein the value range is m belongs to [0, S ], and when X is m, the stock number of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter in a stable state is m; r is used for counting, recording the value when the stock level is a negative value, wherein the value range is r ∈ [ -N, -1], and when X is r, the number of stock shortages of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter in a steady state is-r; p (X is m), m belongs to [0, S ] represents the steady-state probability that the stock quantity is m when the stock level X is equal to m; p (X ═ r), r ∈ [ -N, -1] represents the steady state probability that the inventory shortage quantity is-r when inventory level X equals r.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein the step 6 comprises:
the expected energy loss E [ LE ] over a given period of time is calculated as follows:
Figure FDA0003489498330000041
in the above formula
Figure FDA0003489498330000042
The average value of the hourly generated energy of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter is the rated nominal value of the generated power of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter, or the statistical value of the collected data in the running process of the power station is adopted; t represents a given period of time; x represents the inventory level of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a steady state; r is used for counting, and recording the value when the stock level is a negative value, wherein the value range is r belongs to [ -N, -1]When the X is equal to r, the inventory shortage quantity of the micro inverter photovoltaic power generation system in a steady state is represented as-r; p (X ═ r), r ∈ [ -N, -1]Representing the steady-state probability of the micro-inverter photovoltaic power generation system when the inventory shortage number is-r, since the inventory shortage number is equal to the fault number, p (X-r), r e [ -N, -1]The steady-state probability when the fault number of the photovoltaic power generation system of the micro inverter is-r is represented; LE represents the energy loss of the photovoltaic plant; e [ LE ]]Representing the expected energy loss of the photovoltaic plant over a given period of time.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the step 7 comprises: from said expected power loss, evaluating the expected net power generation E [ EG ] of the photovoltaic plant for a corresponding given period of time as follows:
Figure FDA0003489498330000043
n represents the installed number of the photovoltaic power generation systems of the micro inverters; EG represents the net power generation capacity of the photovoltaic power plant; e [ EG ] represents the expected net power generation of the photovoltaic power plant over a corresponding given period of time.
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