CN114372652A - An urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating urban ecological capacity and simulating development boundary, which comprises the following steps: obtaining basic rigid capacity according to regional resource environment bearing capacity and development suitability evaluation; taking important patches such as natural conservation lands, forest parks, cultural heritage and the like as ecological sources, combining an ecological corridor analysis model with minimum constraint accumulated resistance, constructing an ecological safety pattern according to a network communication rule, and obtaining structural rigidity capacity after space reduction; obtaining elastic ecological capacity through multi-scenario analysis according to various permanent basic farmland protection space game strategies such as all regulations and major project regulations and the like; and optimizing elastic ecological capacity, and simulating urban development boundary space-time change by utilizing a seed expansion patch type growth cellular automaton. The invention establishes a rigid-elastic combined urban ecological capacity evaluation multilevel coupling analysis strategy, realizes the space transmission from the capacity evaluation to the boundary control through an urban evolution simulation model, and has important significance for implementing scientific argument of the territorial space planning.

Description

An urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method

technical field

The invention relates to a land space planning technology, in particular to an urban ecological capacity evaluation and development boundary simulation method.

Background technique

The urban ecological capacity is a planning concept after the urban scale is given ecological characteristics (agriculture also belongs to the broad ecology) according to the needs of ecological civilization construction. The urban ecological capacity simulation can be carried out from three in-depth levels: basic rigid capacity, structural rigid capacity and elastic ecological capacity. Among them, the basic rigid capacity is to determine the maximum bearing capacity of the region according to the requirements of the "double evaluation" of land and space, which is the maximum upper limit of the regional development theory; the structural rigid capacity is to further consider the spatial demands of the ecological security pattern, reduce the basic rigid capacity, and ensure the regional ecology. Safe and sustainable; elastic ecological capacity considers the impact of various spatial uncertainties such as the protection of permanent basic farmland, which depicts the elasticity and diversity of urban ecological capacity. Therefore, taking the urban ecological capacity as the starting point and constructing the control boundary through multi-scenario ecological capacity simulation is an important way to implement the transmission of national land space planning. At present, there are many technical methods for delimiting urban development boundaries, but they often focus on the analysis of a certain technical angle. The inherent logic of spatial planning is not strong, and it cannot well meet the needs of practical application of land and spatial planning. Therefore, the existing technology still needs to be improved and developed.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies of the prior art and provide an urban ecological capacity evaluation and development boundary simulation method, which can be used to analyze and evaluate the optimal capacity of regional urbanization development, thereby improving the scientificity of territorial spatial planning.

In order to realize the above-mentioned tasks, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

An urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method, comprising the following steps:

According to the suitability of terrain and geomorphology and the needs of geological disaster risk prevention and control, the core spatial factors that support and restrict the construction of urban industrialization are classified into thresholds, and the construction suitability or risk of a single factor in each evaluation unit is clarified; The results are comprehensively integrated, the land space is divided into highly suitable, medium suitable and low suitable space types, and the areas that are legally prohibited from construction are directly deducted according to the low suitable type; geospatial statistical analysis tools are used to calculate the area of different spatial types, Count the spatial scale of high suitability and medium suitability as the basic rigid ecological capacity;

Considering the characteristics of the ecological environment in the planning area, the legal important ecological patches are regarded as important ecological sources in the region; the standard resistance surface of ecological migration is set according to the type of land cover, and the adjustment coefficient is generated by the digital surface model to correct the standard resistance surface of ecological migration; According to the characteristics of the regional ecological environment, establish the link relationship and basic trend of important ecological corridors, and then use the minimum cumulative resistance model to calculate the ecological corridors; according to the requirements of ecological network connectivity, combine ecological sources and ecological corridor spaces to construct a regional ecological security pattern; Use the ecological security pattern to reduce the basic rigid capacity in space, and calculate the structural rigid capacity that meets the requirements of the ecological security bottom line;

The permanent basic farmland protection pattern is superimposed on the rigid capacity of the structure, and the conflict level between each permanent basic farmland protection pattern and construction needs is clearly defined one by one. Protected Yongnong Patterns; according to the basic requirements for the balance of the total amount of permanent basic farmland protection, it is clear which Yongnong patterns in the area can be re-planned or protected in different places, and various permanent basics such as full or partial adjustment will be generated. Farmland protection plan; comprehensively consider the needs of ecological security pattern and multi-scenario plans for permanent basic farmland adjustment and maintenance, and obtain the floating range of regional urban ecological capacity, which is used as elastic ecological capacity;

According to the regional social and economic development strategy and the positioning of national land and space development, the multi-scenario plan for elastic ecological capacity is optimized, and the optimal capacity scenario to meet the regional social and economic development is established according to the permanent basic farmland adjustment and protection index issued by the superior plan; Scenario is the basic constraint, combined with the scale demand of social and economic development and construction land in the planning target year, the patch cellular automata model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal sequence evolution scenario of urban growth from the status quo to the target year; based on the simulated urban growth pattern, the simulation The urban growth patches are smoothed and simplified, and finally the proposed regional urban development boundary proposal is generated.

Further, the threshold grading of the core spatial factors refers to setting different thresholds according to the importance of a certain factor to construction and development, and then grading the single-factor spatial data with the support of GIS software to obtain a single-factor evaluation map.

Further, in the calculation of ecological corridors, the connecting buffer zones between ecological sources are integrated into the minimum cumulative resistance model to construct a constrained minimum cumulative resistance model;

The calculation formula of the constrained minimum cumulative resistance model is:

Among them: M is the minimum cumulative resistance value; D _cs is the distance from the space unit c to the source s; R _c is the resistance coefficient of the space unit c to the ecological process diffusion, which is the combination of the surface cover type resistance K _c and the adjustment factor T _c ; B represents the bandwidth constraint of the ecological corridor to avoid too many roundabouts in the calculation results of the corridor; f represents the positive correlation between the minimum cumulative resistance and the ecological process; the connecting route formed by the area with a low M value between any two ecological sources is for the ecological corridor.

Further, the adjustment coefficient T is calculated by the standardization of the digital surface model DSM, and is expressed as T=H/H _max , where H represents the DSM value of the unit, and H _max represents the maximum value of all DSM units.

Further, the elastic lower limit of the elastic ecological capacity is that all permanent basic farmland patches must be protected, and urbanization development is strictly limited; and the elastic upper limit is that all permanent basic farmland patches are adjusted and guaranteed to fully meet the needs of urbanization development; The basic farmland adjustment and protection produces different elastic ecological capacity multi-scenario schemes.

Further, the basic orientation and spatial constraints of the regional construction space are determined through the optimization of elastic ecological capacity, and then the site selection of major projects is used as a known seed point, and the patch cellular automata model is realized by the method of seed expansion. The demand for construction land simulates the spatial and temporal sequence changes of regional urban growth.

Further, the selection strategies of the seed units of the patch cellular automata model Patch-CA are as follows: the initial position of the seeds is based on the regional project site selection library, and the plots whose site selection requirements are within the elastic ecological capacity range are entered as Patch. -The fixed seed of CA, and some random seeds are generated according to the expansion probability. The Patch-CA model performs patch expansion based on these initial seeds during the evolution iteration; the update of the seed position is the expansion area of the seed patch in the previous iteration. A batch of new seeds will be randomly generated in a certain buffer zone. The location of the new seeds should avoid being too far or too close to the current town. The default size of the buffer zone is the maximum outer diameter of the expanded patch.

Further, when Patch-CA performs cell state evolution, it does not update cell by cell, but uses seed expansion strategy for patch growth. Patch growth is based on the seed unit as the center of the imitation stamp fill.

Further, the generation strategy of imitation stamps is to randomly extract several patch growth samples from the historical change process according to the size of the patch growth window; in order to ensure the diversity of patch growth, thousands of imitation stamps, seed units, and seed units are extracted. When filling, randomly select a stamp from the clone stamp library to fill.

Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

1. The multi-scenario simulation method of urban ecological capacity constructed by the present invention establishes a multi-path coupling analysis strategy from basic rigid capacity, to structural rigid capacity and then to elastic ecological capacity, which improves the controllability of the implementation of urban ecological capacity assessment technology.

2. The present invention integrates the digital surface model into the minimum cumulative resistance model, and at the same time takes the connection direction of the ecological corridor as a space constraint, which effectively avoids the defect of circuitous lines in the calculation of the ecological corridor, and the smooth corridor passing through the high-density construction area is more efficient. Conducive to the development of urban design.

3. The present invention constrains the ecological security pattern (extended version of the ecological protection red line) as a structural rigidity, and forms a multi-scenario plan for the spatial conflict between farmland and towns through protection game strategies (such as local adjustment and protection, remote protection, etc.). The elasticity of the urban development boundary provides a basis for discrimination.

4. On the basis of multi-scenario simulation of urban ecological capacity, the present invention further utilizes seeds to expand patch growth cellular automata to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution sequence of urban growth, which can realize accurate transmission from multi-scenario simulation of urban ecological capacity to urban development boundaries, In order to better meet the requirements for the delineation of "three districts and three lines" in land and space planning.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the urban ecological capacity evaluation and development boundary simulation method of the present invention;

2 is a schematic diagram of the identification of ecological corridors based on the constraint minimum cumulative resistance model of the present invention;

Fig. 3 is the simulation schematic diagram of the urban development boundary based on the seed patch cellular automata of the present invention;

FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of the imitation stamp extraction of the present invention.

Detailed ways

The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the embodiments and the accompanying drawings, but the embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto.

Referring to Figure 1, an urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method of the present invention includes the following steps:

Step 1. According to the suitability of topography and geomorphology and the need for prevention and control of geological disaster risks, the core spatial factors that support and restrict the construction of urban industrialization are classified into thresholds, and the construction suitability or risk of a single factor in each evaluation unit is clarified; The decision tree multi-factor spatial superposition comprehensive discriminant method is used to comprehensively integrate the single-factor evaluation results, and the land space is divided into high suitable, medium suitable and low suitable spatial types. Low suitability types are deducted; geospatial statistical analysis tools are used to calculate the area of three types of high suitability, medium suitability and low suitability, and the spatial scale (area) of high suitability and medium suitability is counted as the basic rigid ecological capacity.

Wherein, the single factor can be selected according to specific needs, for example, it can be terrain flatness and ground disaster risk, etc.; the size of the evaluation unit is set according to actual needs, and a 100m×100 grid is used in this embodiment.

The basic rigid capacity calculation only considers the supporting and restricting effects of the most basic spatial factors that affect construction and development (ie, terrain flatness and geological disaster risk). (medium risk), low suitable (low risk) three levels of evaluation. The present invention does not use dynamic human factors that change with the development of time, such as the distance from the development center and the road network, which are used in the traditional land use construction suitability evaluation, so as to enhance the stability of the evaluation result. The basic rigid capacity expands the connotation of construction land suitability evaluation, and can better support the construction evaluation needs of fast-growing areas, especially new development areas.

In step 1 of this embodiment, the threshold grading of the core spatial factors refers to setting different thresholds according to the importance of a certain factor to construction and development, and then grading the single-factor spatial data with the support of GIS software to obtain a single-factor evaluation map . Taking terrain flatness as an example, the threshold division is shown in the following table:

Table 1 Terrain flatness threshold division table

terrain flatness Evaluation level Area (ha) Proportion (%) <E1 Highly suitable A1 P1% E1-E2 moderately suitable A2 P2% E2-E3 inappropriate A3 P3% E3-E4 inappropriate A4 P4% >E2 low fit A3 P3%

In step 1 of this embodiment, the decision tree multi-factor space superposition comprehensive discriminant method is a process of synthesizing multiple single-factor evaluation levels of the evaluation unit into one suitability level. Due to the different effects of different factors, the comprehensive evaluation should adopt the screening and integration method of decision tree. An example of multi-factor comprehensive evaluation based on decision tree is as follows:

Step 2: Comprehensively consider the characteristics of the ecological environment in the planning area, and take legal nature reserves, forest parks, wetland parks and other important ecological patches as important ecological sources in the region; The model (Digital Surface Model, DSM) generates adjustment coefficients to correct the standard resistance surface of ecological migration; according to the characteristics of the regional ecological environment, establishes the link relationship and basic direction of important ecological corridors, and then uses the minimum cumulative resistance model with the support of GIS software ( Minimum Cumulative Resistance, MCR) to calculate the ecological corridor; according to the ecological network connectivity requirements, combine the ecological source and ecological corridor space to construct a regional ecological security pattern; use the ecological security pattern to reduce the basic rigid capacity in space, and calculate the satisfaction The structural rigidity capacity required by the ecological safety bottom line.

Among them, the planning area refers to the administrative scope, such as Guangzhou City, Huangpu District, etc.; in terms of ecological resistance surface setting, a digital surface model is introduced to correct the ecological migration standard resistance surface set based on surface coverage data (such as land use, etc.). The digital surface model contains height information such as surface buildings and trees, which can correct the resistance alienation of the same type of surface cover due to different heights (for example, high-rise construction areas have a greater impact on bird migration).

In terms of ecological corridor calculation, the connecting trend buffer zone between ecological sources is integrated into the minimum cumulative resistance model to construct a constrained minimum cumulative resistance model (Constrained Minimal Cumulative Resistance, CMCR). The minimum cumulative resistance can be avoided through corridor direction constraints. Various circuitous routes appear when the model traverses the ecological resistance surface. The smoothness of ecological corridors can avoid fragmentation of construction land patches, and can better support the implementation of urban planning and design schemes.

其中：M为最小累积阻力值；D_cs表示空间单元c到源s的距离；R_c表示空间单元c对生态过程扩散的阻力系数，其为地表覆盖类型阻力K_c和调节因子T_c合成；B表示生态廊道走向带宽约束(表现为缓冲带)，避免廊道计算结果出现过多迂回；f表示最小累积阻力与生态过程的正相关关系；任意两个生态源之间M值较低的区域形成的连通路线即为生态廊道。In this step, the calculation principle of the constraint minimum cumulative resistance model is as follows:

Among them: M is the minimum cumulative resistance value; D _cs is the distance from the space unit c to the source s; R _c is the resistance coefficient of the space unit c to the ecological process diffusion, which is the combination of the surface cover type resistance K _c and the adjustment factor T _c ; B represents the bandwidth constraint of the ecological corridor (represented as a buffer zone) to avoid too many roundabouts in the calculation results of the corridor; f represents the positive correlation between the minimum cumulative resistance and the ecological process; the lower M value between any two ecological sources The connecting route formed by the region is the ecological corridor.

In step 2 of this embodiment, the standard resistance surface of ecological migration refers to the energy dissipation value of ecological migration established according to the type of land cover and combining with expert scoring. bigger. The setting method of the value K of each unit on the resistance surface of the ecological migration standard based on the land cover type (such as the third national land survey land use status classification standard) is as follows:

Table 2 Minimum cumulative resistance values of units on the standard resistance surface of ecological migration

In this step, the digital surface model is used to generate the adjustment coefficient, which mainly considers the influence of surface morphology on biological diffusion. For example, for the same forest cover type, the forest land in the plain area has greater resistance than the forest land in the mountains; the same commercial land, high-rise buildings have a greater impact on birds than low-rise buildings. The digital surface model not only contains terrain information, but also includes height information such as buildings and trees, which can better reflect the three-dimensional spatial characteristics of the earth's surface. The adjustment coefficient T can be calculated by the normalization of the DSM, and is expressed as T=H/H _max , where H represents the DSM value of the unit, and H _max represents the maximum value of all DSM units.

Step 3, superimpose the permanent basic farmland protection pattern on the rigid capacity of the structure, and clarify the conflict level between each permanent basic farmland protection pattern and construction requirements one by one, and focus on identifying the permanent farmland pattern that must be called out for major projects and the necessary Yongnong pattern protected by "open skylight"; according to the basic requirements of the total balance of permanent basic farmland protection, it is clear which permanent farm pattern in the area can be re-planned or protected in different places, and all or part of the insurance will be adjusted. A permanent basic farmland protection plan; comprehensively considering the needs of the ecological security pattern and the multi-scenario plan for the permanent basic farmland adjustment and protection, the floating range of the regional urban ecological capacity is obtained, which is used as the elastic ecological capacity.

Among them, the elastic lower limit of the elastic ecological capacity is that all permanent basic farmland patches must be protected, and urbanization development is strictly limited; and the elastic upper limit is that all permanent basic farmland patches are guaranteed to fully meet the needs of urbanization development. Different permanent basic farmland transfer and protection produces different elastic ecological capacity multi-scenario schemes.

In step 3 of this embodiment, the conflict level between each permanent basic farmland protection patch and construction demand is clarified one by one. Based on the spatial conflict analysis of the quality level of the permanent basic farmland and the construction demand, it is clear whether each plot can be adjusted and the corresponding Adjusted path analysis issues. The conflict analysis of different permanent basic farmland protection can obtain multi-scenario plans, which is an important influencing factor for the elastic analysis of urban ecological capacity assessment. Conflict discrimination can be performed in the following modes:

Table 3 Conflict discrimination table

In this step, the spatial game of permanent basic farmland protection is fully considered. In response to the spatial conflict between urban development and farmland protection, multiple game strategies such as major project adjustment and insurance and high-quality farmland "opening the skylight" must be guaranteed, and through the uncertainty of the protection of Yongnong plots (such as insurance reduction, insurance reduction, insurance adjustment, etc. ) research and multi-scenario analysis, so that the urban space has elastic characteristics, and then determines the scope of elastic ecological capacity.

Step 4: According to the regional social and economic development strategy and the positioning of land and space development, the multi-scenario plan for elastic ecological capacity is optimized, and the optimal capacity scenario that meets the regional social and economic development is established according to the permanent basic farmland adjustment and protection index issued by the superior plan; The optimal capacity scenario is the basic constraint. Combined with the scale demand of social and economic development construction land in the planning target year, the Patch-based Cellular Automata (Patch-CA) model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal sequence evolution of urban growth from the status quo to the target year. Scenario: Based on the urban growth pattern simulated by Patch-CA, the simulated urban growth patches are smoothed and simplified by using the comprehensive tools of GIS mapping, and finally the proposed regional urban development boundary proposal is generated.

Among them, the multi-scenario scheme is generated according to different requirements for farmland protection, the optimal capacity scenario is determined according to the indicators issued by the superior, and the urban growth pattern is obtained by the patch expansion cellular automata model.

In this step, the basic orientation and spatial constraints of the regional construction space are determined through the optimization of elastic ecological capacity, and then the site selection of major projects is used as a known seed point, and Patch-CA is realized by the method of seed expansion, and then according to the needs of regional social and economic development construction land Simulate the spatiotemporal changes in the growth of regional towns.

In step 4 of this embodiment, Patch-CA is a set of general grid dynamics model framework, that is, the regional space is discretized into several standard grids (such as 100m×100m), and then the state changes of each grid are simulated by (that is, whether the land type identification code is a city) to simulate the evolution of the entire urban complex system. When Patch-CA performs cell state evolution, it does not update cell by cell, but uses seed expansion strategy for patch growth. Among them, the seed unit is mainly selected according to the mixed method of major project site selection and random site selection, and the patch growth is filled with imitation stamps centered on the seed unit.

In step 4 of this embodiment, the selection strategies of Patch-CA seed units are: the initial position of the seeds is based on the regional project site selection database, and the plots whose site selection requirements are within the range of the elastic ecological capacity are entered as Patch-CA's The seeds are fixed, and some random seeds are generated according to the expansion probability. The Patch-CA model performs patch expansion based on these initial seeds during evolution iteration; the update of the seed position is a certain buffer area in the patch expansion area of the seed in the previous iteration. A batch of new seeds will be randomly generated inside. The location of the new seeds should avoid being too far or too close to the current town. The size of the buffer zone can generally default to the maximum outer diameter of the expanded patch.

In step 4 of this embodiment, the generation strategy of the imitation stamp is based on the size of the patch growth window (depending on the size of the planning area, the larger the planning area, the larger the window size should be, and the default value can be set to 1000m*1000m ) randomly extract several patch growth samples from the historical change process. In order to ensure the diversity of patch growth, thousands of imitation stamps can be extracted, and the seed unit can randomly select a kind of stamp from the imitation stamp library to fill in when filling.

To sum up, the present invention constructs a complete analysis path from basic rigid capacity to structural rigid capacity to elastic ecological capacity. The three types of ecological capacity respectively deduce the optimal urban growth plan in the region from three perspectives according to the progressive strategy, taking into account the rigid and elastic characteristics of the urban ecological capacity, and implement food security (protection of Yongnong) and ecological security for the national land space planning. (ecological patterns) and human development (development boundaries) provide actionable pathways.

The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, but not to limit them; although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: The recorded technical solutions are modified, or some technical features thereof are equivalently replaced; and these modifications or replacements do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the application, and should be included in the application. within the scope of protection.

Claims (9)

1. an urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps: According to the suitability of terrain and geomorphology and the needs of geological disaster risk prevention and control, the core spatial factors that support and restrict the construction of urban industrialization are classified into thresholds, and the construction suitability or risk of a single factor in each evaluation unit is clarified; The results are comprehensively integrated, the land space is divided into highly suitable, medium suitable and low suitable space types, and the areas that are legally prohibited from construction are directly deducted according to the low suitable type; geospatial statistical analysis tools are used to calculate the area of different spatial types, Count the spatial scale of high suitability and medium suitability as the basic rigid ecological capacity; Considering the characteristics of the ecological environment in the planning area, the legal important ecological patches are regarded as important ecological sources in the region; the standard resistance surface of ecological migration is set according to the type of land cover, and the adjustment coefficient is generated by the digital surface model to correct the standard resistance surface of ecological migration; According to the characteristics of the regional ecological environment, establish the link relationship and basic trend of important ecological corridors, and then use the minimum cumulative resistance model to calculate the ecological corridors; according to the requirements of ecological network connectivity, combine ecological sources and ecological corridor spaces to construct a regional ecological security pattern; Use the ecological security pattern to reduce the basic rigid capacity in space, and calculate the structural rigid capacity that meets the requirements of the ecological security bottom line; The permanent basic farmland protection pattern is superimposed on the rigid capacity of the structure, and the conflict level between each permanent basic farmland protection pattern and construction needs is clearly defined one by one. Protected Yongnong Patterns; according to the basic requirements for the balance of the total amount of permanent basic farmland protection, it is clear which Yongnong patterns in the area can be re-planned or protected in different places, and various permanent basics such as full or partial adjustment will be generated. Farmland protection plan; comprehensively consider the needs of ecological security pattern and multi-scenario plans for permanent basic farmland adjustment and maintenance, and obtain the floating range of regional urban ecological capacity, which is used as elastic ecological capacity; According to the regional social and economic development strategy and the positioning of national land and space development, the multi-scenario plan for elastic ecological capacity is optimized, and the optimal capacity scenario to meet the regional social and economic development is established according to the permanent basic farmland adjustment and protection index issued by the superior plan; Scenario is the basic constraint, combined with the scale demand of social and economic development and construction land in the planning target year, the patch cellular automata model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal sequence evolution scenario of urban growth from the status quo to the target year; based on the simulated urban growth pattern, the simulation The urban growth patches are smoothed and simplified, and finally the proposed regional urban development boundary proposal is generated. 2. The urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method according to claim 1, wherein the threshold classification of the core space factor means that different thresholds are set according to the importance of a certain factor to construction and development, and then With the support of GIS software, the single-factor spatial data is classified to obtain a single-factor evaluation map. 3. The urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method according to claim 1, characterized in that, in the calculation of ecological corridors, the connection between ecological source areas is integrated into the minimum cumulative resistance model to build a constraint. Minimum cumulative resistance model; The calculation formula of the constrained minimum cumulative resistance model is:

Among them: M is the minimum cumulative resistance value; D _cs is the distance from the space unit c to the source s; R _c is the resistance coefficient of the space unit c to the ecological process diffusion, which is the combination of the surface cover type resistance K _c and the adjustment factor T _c ; B represents the bandwidth constraint of the ecological corridor to avoid too many roundabouts in the calculation results of the corridor; f represents the positive correlation between the minimum cumulative resistance and the ecological process; the connecting route formed by the area with a low M value between any two ecological sources is for the ecological corridor. 4. The urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method according to claim 1, wherein the adjustment coefficient T is calculated by the standardization of the digital surface model DSM, and is expressed as T=H/H _max , wherein H represents the DSM of the unit value, H _max represents the maximum value of all DSM units. 5. The urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method according to claim 1, wherein the elastic lower limit of the elastic ecological capacity is that the permanent basic farmland must be fully protected, and the urbanization development is strictly limited; and the elastic upper limit That is to say, all the permanent basic farmland patches are adjusted and guaranteed to fully meet the needs of urbanization development; different permanent basic farmland adjustments will produce different elastic ecological capacity multi-scenario schemes. 6. The urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method according to claim 1, wherein the basic orientation and spatial constraints of the regional construction space are determined by the elastic ecological capacity optimization, and then the site selection of major projects is used as a known seed point , using the seed expansion method to realize the patch cellular automata model, and then simulate the spatial and temporal sequence changes of regional urban growth according to the regional social and economic development construction land demand. 7. urban ecological capacity assessment according to claim 1 and development boundary simulation method, it is characterized in that, the selection strategy of the seed unit of patch cellular automata model Patch-CA is respectively: initial position of seed is with regional project site selection Based on the database, the plots whose site selection requirements are within the elastic ecological capacity range are entered as the fixed seeds of Patch-CA, and some random seeds are generated according to the expansion probability. The Patch-CA model is based on these initial seeds during evolution iteration. The patch expansion is performed; the update of the seed position is to randomly generate a batch of new seeds within a certain buffer area of the seed patch expansion area of the previous iteration. The location of the new seeds should avoid being too far or too close to the current town. The zone size defaults to the maximum outer diameter of the expanded plaque. 8. urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, Patch-CA does not update cell by cell when performing cell state evolution, but then adopts seed expansion strategy to carry out patch type. Growth; among them, the seed unit is selected according to the mixed method of major project site selection and random site selection, and the patch growth is filled with imitation stamps centered on the seed unit. 9. The urban ecological capacity assessment and development boundary simulation method according to claim 8, wherein the generation strategy of the imitation stamp is to randomly extract several patch growth samples from the historical change process according to the size of the patch growth window; To ensure the diversity of patch growth, thousands of imitation stamps are extracted, and the seed unit can randomly select a kind of stamp from the imitation stamp library for filling when filling.

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