CN114331118A - Transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for digital handover scene - Google Patents
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Abstract
A transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for a digital handover scene comprises the following steps: s1, dividing the reliability of the digital transformer substation into the reliability of each basic architecture on the basis of the basic architecture of the digital transformer substation, and establishing a primary system fault tree model and a secondary system fault tree model of the digital transformer substation; s2, respectively constructing Weibull distribution models of the primary system faults and the secondary system faults according to the primary system fault tree model and the secondary system fault tree model of the digital substation, and acquiring a failure distribution function of the subsystem of the digital substation; and S3, comprehensively evaluating the reliability of the digital transformer substation by applying a Monte Carlo method according to the failure distribution function of the subsystem of the digital transformer substation. The design has the advantage of high evaluation precision when the reliability of the transformer substation under a digital handover scene is evaluated.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of transformer substation operation reliability evaluation, in particular to a transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for a digital handover scene, which is mainly suitable for improving evaluation precision.
Background
The digital transformer substation is a power device which changes and adjusts voltage, receives and distributes electric energy and can control the flow direction of electric power in a power system, and is a key link of power transmission. A digital substation is a combination of various electrical devices, and the electrical devices in the substation can be generally divided into primary devices and secondary devices according to operating voltages. Due to the complexity of the structure of the digital transformer substation, reliability evaluation on a certain system in the transformer substation is not perfect, and the whole operation reliability of the digital transformer substation cannot be fully reflected. Therefore, a method capable of comprehensively evaluating the reliability of each system of the substation is required to be constructed to evaluate the reliability of the substation.
In the prior art documents: according to the technical scheme, a reliability analysis method considering the correlation among different devices is provided in the document 'intelligent substation secondary system reliability analysis considering equipment correlation (Thangshimilitary, Lenzaceae, Cheng build flood, Tesla. Intelligent substation secondary system reliability analysis considering the equipment correlation [ J/OL ]. Fuzhou university bulletin (Natural science edition)', 2021,49(6):782 and 789) ], an index distribution reliability model is established for the equipment in the intelligent substation secondary system, the correlation of the equipment belonging to the same loop is fully considered, and an intelligent substation equipment reliability model considering the correlation among the equipment is established through a Copula function; the method evaluates the influence of the correlation among different devices on the operation reliability of the transformer substation in the same loop, and provides a basis for improving the system reliability; however, this method only considers the secondary system of the substation, and does not take the primary system into the evaluation range. A system model combining a parallel redundancy protocol and a high-availability seamless ring network protocol is provided in a document oriented to intelligent substation communication network reliability research (Lihui, Zhangxiajun, Panhua, Maofuqin, strictly subbing, Chenro fly, oriented to intelligent substation communication network reliability research [ J ]. electric power system protection and control, 2021,49(9)):165-171), and the method can effectively evaluate and improve the reliability of a substation communication system and provide a scientific reference basis for the development of an intelligent substation; however, the method only develops research aiming at the communication system of the transformer substation, is not strong in general applicability, and cannot make comprehensive evaluation on the transformer substation. In the literature, "research on relay protection reliability assessment methods for intelligent substations" (zhan huan qing, thunder, strict lixiong, jiangyuan, liuzhen, zhan mu jiu. "research on relay protection reliability assessment methods for intelligent substations [ J ]. electrical measurement and instrument, 2020,57(14):57-62.), a method for assessing relay protection reliability of small sample data of intelligent substations by combining three-parameter Weibull distribution and gray estimation method is proposed; the method can quickly estimate the parameters of the reliability model according to real-time data, and has high estimation precision; however, the method only evaluates the relay protection system of the transformer substation, and cannot reflect the operation conditions of other related devices in the transformer substation. The methods mentioned above are developed for a certain system of the transformer substation, however, the transformer substation is a complex system formed by multiple electrical devices, and it is obvious that the single evaluation of a certain system cannot sufficiently show the real reliability of the digital transformer substation.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects and problems of low evaluation precision in the prior art, and provides a transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method which is high in evaluation precision and suitable for a digital handover scene.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the technical solution of the invention is as follows: a transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for a digital handover scene comprises the following steps:
s1, dividing the reliability of the digital transformer substation into the reliability of each basic architecture on the basis of the basic architecture of the digital transformer substation, and establishing a primary system fault tree model and a secondary system fault tree model of the digital transformer substation;
s2, respectively constructing Weibull distribution models of the primary system faults and the secondary system faults according to the primary system fault tree model and the secondary system fault tree model of the digital substation, and acquiring a failure distribution function of the subsystem of the digital substation;
and S3, comprehensively evaluating the reliability of the digital transformer substation by applying a Monte Carlo method according to the failure distribution function of the subsystem of the digital transformer substation.
In step S1, the substation operation fault is defined as a top event, the primary system fault and the secondary system fault are defined as primary intermediate level events, and the fault tree model T of the top event level is determinedtopExpressed as:
Ttop＝M1，1+M1，2
wherein M is1，1For a primary system fault tree model, M1，2Is a secondary system fault tree model.
In step S1, a system is executed forThe barrier tree model is composed of a secondary middle layer event and a bottom layer event, wherein the secondary middle layer event comprises a transformer fault M2，1The underlying event includes a breaker failure x7Isolation switch fault x8Bus fault x9Lightning arrester fault x10Capacitor fault x11And reactor fault x12；
Transformer fault M2，1Comprises the following steps:
M2，1＝x1+x2+x3+x4++x5+x6
wherein x is1Excessive oil temperature, x2For an abnormality, x3For core insulation and grounding anomalies, x4For over-voltages and loads, x5For casing failure, x6The problem of oil leakage;
primary system fault tree model M1，1Comprises the following steps:
in step S1, the secondary system fault tree model is composed of secondary middle layer events and bottom layer events, where the secondary middle layer events include relay protection fault M2，2And the fault M of the measurement and control device2，3The underlying event includes a metering device failure y7And DC power failure y8；
Relay protection fault M2，2Comprises the following steps:
M2，2＝y1+y2+y3+y4
wherein, y1For line protection faults, y2For bus protection fault, y3For bus tie protection failure, y4Protecting the transformer from faults;
failure M of measurement and control device2，3Comprises the following steps:
M2，3＝y5+y6
wherein, y5For a current transformer fault, y6Is a voltage transformerA barrier;
secondary system fault tree model M1，2Comprises the following steps:
in step S2, based on the primary system fault tree model and the secondary system fault tree model, the scale parameters and the shape parameters of the two-parameter weibull distribution are estimated by using the least square method and the average rank method to obtain the failure distribution function of the digital substation subsystem.
In step S3, weak links of the digital substation are determined according to the probability importance and the subsystem importance:
wherein, W (X)i) For probability importance, the subsystem X of the digital substation is showniThe possibility that the whole digital substation is necessarily in fault if the fault occurs; wN(Xi) For the importance of the subsystem, the subsystem X of the digital substation is showniThe percentage of the failure times in the overall failure times of the digital substation;
probability importance W (X)i) And subsystem importance WN(Xi) The larger the subsystem X isiIs a weak link of a digital transformer substation.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
in the transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for the digital handover scene, a primary system fault tree model and a secondary system fault tree model of the transformer substation are constructed based on the fault tree principle, the transformer substation reliability evaluation is subdivided into the evaluation of each basic event, and the reliability of the digital transformer substation is evaluated more accurately by comprehensively evaluating the basic events influencing the reliability of the digital transformer substation.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for a digital handover scenario according to the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a diagram of a digital substation primary system fault tree model in an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a diagram of a digitized substation secondary system fault tree model in an embodiment of the invention.
Fig. 4 is a diagram of digitized substation probability importance and subsystem importance evaluation in an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the following description and embodiments in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
Referring to fig. 1 to 4, a transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for a digital handover scenario includes the following steps:
s1, dividing the reliability of the digital transformer substation into the reliability of each basic architecture on the basis of the basic architecture of the digital transformer substation, and establishing a primary system fault tree model and a secondary system fault tree model of the digital transformer substation;
s2, respectively constructing Weibull distribution models of the primary system faults and the secondary system faults according to the primary system fault tree model and the secondary system fault tree model of the digital substation, and acquiring a failure distribution function of the subsystem of the digital substation;
and S3, comprehensively evaluating the reliability of the digital transformer substation by applying a Monte Carlo method according to the failure distribution function of the subsystem of the digital transformer substation.
In step S1, the substation operation fault is defined as a top event, the primary system fault and the secondary system fault are defined as primary intermediate level events, and the fault tree model T of the top event level is determinedtopExpressed as:
Ttop＝M1，1+M1，2
wherein M is1，1For a primary system fault tree model, M1，2Is a secondary system fault tree model.
In step S1, the primary system fault tree model is composed of secondary middle layer events and bottom layer events, where the secondary middle layer events include a transformer fault M2，1The underlying event includes a breaker failure x7Isolation switch fault x8Bus fault x9Lightning arrester fault x10Capacitor fault x11And reactor fault x12；
Transformer fault M2，1Comprises the following steps:
M2，1＝x1+x2+x3+x4+x5+x6
wherein x is1Excessive oil temperature, x2For an abnormality, x3For core insulation and grounding anomalies, x4For over-voltages and loads, x5For casing failure, x6The problem of oil leakage;
primary system fault tree model M1，1Comprises the following steps:
in step S1, the secondary system fault tree model is composed of secondary middle layer events and bottom layer events, where the secondary middle layer events include relay protection fault M2，2And the fault M of the measurement and control device2，3The underlying event includes a metering device failure y7And DC power failure y8；
Relay protection fault M2，2Comprises the following steps:
M2，2＝y1+y2+y3+y4
wherein, y1For line protection faults, y2For bus protection fault, y3For bus tie protection failure, y4Protecting the transformer from faults;
failure M of measurement and control device2，3Comprises the following steps:
M2，3＝y5+y6
wherein, y5For a current transformer fault, y6A voltage transformer fault;
secondary system fault tree model M1，2Comprises the following steps:
in step S2, based on the primary system fault tree model and the secondary system fault tree model, the scale parameters and the shape parameters of the two-parameter weibull distribution are estimated by using the least square method and the average rank method to obtain the failure distribution function of the digital substation subsystem.
In step S3, weak links of the digital substation are determined according to the probability importance and the subsystem importance:
wherein, W (X)i) For probability importance, the subsystem X of the digital substation is showniThe possibility that the whole digital substation is necessarily in fault if the fault occurs; wN(Xi) For the importance of the subsystem, the subsystem X of the digital substation is showniThe percentage of the failure times in the overall failure times of the digital substation;
probability importance W (X)i) And subsystem importance WN(Xi) The larger the subsystem X isiIs a weak link of a digital transformer substation.
The principle of the invention is illustrated as follows:
the design can comprehensively evaluate the reliability of each subsystem of the transformer substation under the digital handover scene, so that the reliability of the digital transformer substation is comprehensively evaluated. Firstly, constructing fault tree models of a primary system and a secondary system aiming at a basic framework of a digital substation, and evaluating factors influencing the reliability of the digital substation in detail; secondly, carrying out Weibull distribution parameter estimation on each system according to the fault tree model to obtain a failure distribution function of each system operation; and finally, comprehensively evaluating the reliability of the digital transformer substation by using a Monte Carlo method. The method constructs a fault tree model for the digital substation, fully considers and evaluates basic events influencing the reliability of the digital substation, overcomes the problems of single and inaccurate evaluation of the existing digital substation, realizes comprehensive evaluation on the reliability of the digital substation, and has the advantage of high evaluation precision.
Example (b):
referring to fig. 1, a transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for a digital handover scenario includes the following steps:
s1, dividing the reliability of the digital transformer substation into the reliability of each basic architecture on the basis of the basic architecture of the digital transformer substation, and establishing a primary system fault tree model and a secondary system fault tree model of the digital transformer substation;
defining the operation fault of the transformer substation as a top event, defining the primary system fault and the secondary system fault as a primary middle layer event, and then, setting a fault tree model T of a top event layertopExpressed as:
Ttop＝M1，1+M1，2
wherein M is1，1For a primary system fault tree model, M1，2Is a secondary system fault tree model;
referring to fig. 2, the primary system fault tree model is composed of secondary middle layer events and bottom layer events, and specifically includes: secondary intermediate layer event Transformer Fault, denoted M2，1Wherein the transformer fault is composed of basic underlying events including an oil temperature overshoot x1Occurrence of an abnormality x2Core insulation and grounding anomaly x3Overvoltage and load x4Casing failure x5Oil leakage problem x6(ii) a Transformer substation primary system fault tree modelDirect underlying events of the type including breaker failure x7Isolation switch fault x8Bus fault x9Lightning arrester fault x10Capacitor fault x11Reactor fault x12；
Transformer fault M2，1Comprises the following steps:
M2，1＝x1+x2+x3+x4+x5+x6
wherein x is1Excessive oil temperature, x2For an abnormality, x3For core insulation and grounding anomalies, x4For over-voltages and loads, x5For casing failure, x6The problem of oil leakage;
primary system fault tree model M1，1Comprises the following steps:
referring to fig. 3, the secondary system fault tree model is composed of a secondary middle layer event and a bottom layer event, and specifically includes: secondary intermediate layer event relay protection failure, denoted MM，2Wherein the relay protection fault is composed of basic bottom layer events and comprises a line protection fault y1Bus protection fault y2Bus-bar protection fault y3Transformer protection fault y4(ii) a Secondary intermediate layer event measurement and control device failure, denoted as M2，3Wherein the fault of the measurement and control device is composed of basic bottom layer events and comprises a fault y of the current transformer5Voltage transformer fault y6(ii) a Direct underlying events of the substation secondary system fault tree model include metering device faults y7d.C. power supply failure y8；
Relay protection fault M2，2Comprises the following steps:
M2，2＝y1+y2+y3+y4
wherein, y1For line protection faults, y2For bus protection fault, y3Is a bus couplingProtection failure, y4Protecting the transformer from faults;
failure M of measurement and control device2，3Comprises the following steps:
M2，3＝y5+y6
wherein, y5For a current transformer fault, y6A voltage transformer fault;
secondary system fault tree model M1，2Comprises the following steps:
s2, respectively constructing Weibull distribution models of the primary system faults and the secondary system faults according to the primary system fault tree model and the secondary system fault tree model of the digital substation, and acquiring a failure distribution function of the subsystem of the digital substation;
on the basis of a primary system fault tree model and a secondary system fault tree model, estimating scale parameters and shape parameters of two-parameter Weibull distribution by adopting a least square method and an average order method to obtain a failure distribution function of a digital substation subsystem;
s3, comprehensively evaluating the reliability of the digital transformer substation by applying a Monte Carlo method according to the failure distribution function of the subsystem of the digital transformer substation;
determining weak links of the digital transformer substation according to the probability importance and the subsystem importance:
wherein, W (X)i) For probability importance, the subsystem X of the digital substation is showniThe possibility that the whole digital substation is necessarily in fault if the fault occurs; wN(Xi) Is aThe importance of the system indicates the subsystem X of the digital substationiThe percentage of the failure times in the overall failure times of the digital substation;
referring to fig. 4, when the digital substation normally operates, the failure probability can be considered to approximately obey weibull distribution parameters, shape parameters and scale parameters in weibull distribution are obtained based on a least square method and an average rank method, and then the probability importance W (X) of the digital substation is calculated by using a monte carlo methodi) And subsystem importance WN(Xi). Simulation analysis, probability importance W (X)i) And subsystem importance WN(Xi) The larger the system is, the neutron system X in the digital substation is illustratediThe system is a link which is easy to break down and is a bottleneck of reliability, and is a key concern system which needs to improve reliability.
Claims (6)
1. A transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for a digital handover scene is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, dividing the reliability of the digital transformer substation into the reliability of each basic architecture on the basis of the basic architecture of the digital transformer substation, and establishing a primary system fault tree model and a secondary system fault tree model of the digital transformer substation;
s2, respectively constructing Weibull distribution models of the primary system faults and the secondary system faults according to the primary system fault tree model and the secondary system fault tree model of the digital substation, and acquiring a failure distribution function of the subsystem of the digital substation;
and S3, comprehensively evaluating the reliability of the digital transformer substation by applying a Monte Carlo method according to the failure distribution function of the subsystem of the digital transformer substation.
2. The transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for the digital handover scenario according to claim 1, wherein: in step S1, the substation operation fault is defined as a top event, the primary system fault and the secondary system fault are defined as primary intermediate level events, and then the fault tree of the top event level is determinedModel TtopExpressed as:
Ttop＝M1，1+M1，2
wherein M is1，1For a primary system fault tree model, M1，2Is a secondary system fault tree model.
3. The transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for the digital handover scenario according to claim 2, wherein:
in step S1, the primary system fault tree model is composed of secondary middle layer events and bottom layer events, where the secondary middle layer events include a transformer fault M2，1The underlying event includes a breaker failure x7Isolation switch fault x8Bus fault x9Lightning arrester fault x10Capacitor fault x11And reactor fault x12；
Transformer fault M2，1Comprises the following steps:
M2，1＝x1+x2+x3+x4+x5+x6
wherein x is1Excessive oil temperature, x2For an abnormality, x3For core insulation and grounding anomalies, x4For over-voltages and loads, x5For casing failure, x6The problem of oil leakage;
primary system fault tree model M1，1Comprises the following steps:
4. the transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for the digital handover scenario according to claim 2, wherein:
in step S1, the secondary system fault tree model is composed of secondary middle layer events and bottom layer events, where the secondary middle layer events include relay protection fault M2，2And the fault M of the measurement and control device2，3The underlying event includes a metering device failure y7And DC power failure y8；
Relay protection fault M2，2Comprises the following steps:
M2，2＝y1+y2+y3+y4
wherein, y1For line protection faults, y2For bus protection fault, y3For bus tie protection failure, y4Protecting the transformer from faults;
failure M of measurement and control device2，3Comprises the following steps:
M2，3＝y5+y6
wherein, y5For a current transformer fault, y6A voltage transformer fault;
secondary system fault tree model M1，2Comprises the following steps:
5. the transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for the digital handover scenario according to claim 1, wherein: in step S2, based on the primary system fault tree model and the secondary system fault tree model, the scale parameters and the shape parameters of the two-parameter weibull distribution are estimated by using the least square method and the average rank method to obtain the failure distribution function of the digital substation subsystem.
6. The transformer substation reliability composite evaluation method suitable for the digital handover scenario according to claim 1, wherein:
in step S3, weak links of the digital substation are determined according to the probability importance and the subsystem importance:
wherein, W (X)i) For probability importance, the subsystem X of the digital substation is showniThe possibility that the whole digital substation is necessarily in fault if the fault occurs; wN(Xi) For the importance of the subsystem, the subsystem X of the digital substation is showniThe percentage of the failure times in the overall failure times of the digital substation;
probability importance W (X)i) And subsystem importance WN(Xi) The larger the subsystem X isiIs a weak link of a digital transformer substation.
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