CN114266408A - Power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method and system - Google Patents
Power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method and system, and belongs to the technical field of power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance. According to the optimization method for the operation and maintenance cost of the power distribution network engineering, various factors such as maintenance period factors, production year limit factors, power failure planning factors, operation environment factors, economic level factors, safety and stability factors, power transformation type factors and actual scale factors are fully considered through continuous exploration and test, and the influence on the maintenance cost is further taken into consideration; constructing a correction model of the operation and maintenance cost by adopting a drift diameter analysis method; and then, the standard cost of the operation and maintenance of the power distribution network engineering is corrected by using the correction model, and the optimized operation and maintenance cost of the power distribution network engineering is obtained, so that the operation and maintenance cost meets the investment of the whole life cycle cost and is close to the actual investment of the operation and maintenance cost of equipment, the user experience is good, and the popularization and the use are convenient.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method and system, and belongs to the technical field of power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance.
Background
With the advancement of innovation, the incremental power distribution network market faces huge competitive pressure, and in order to further enhance the competitiveness of a power grid company, the power grid company urgently needs to enhance the cost control capability, optimize the investment cost of the incremental power distribution network and improve the competitive advantage of the incremental power distribution network market in the future.
Chinese patent (publication number: CN104077651B) discloses a power grid maintenance plan optimization method, which adopts single-target satisfaction and overall target proximity to realize the quantitative processing of preference information of a decision maker, reduces the complexity and is beneficial to the maintenance plan decision maker to conveniently obtain a maintenance optimization scheme; the whole optimization problem is decomposed into a segmentation sub-optimization problem based on an interaction process through three decision models, and contradictions among multiple optimization targets are balanced and coordinated. The invention establishes a multi-target optimization model of the maintenance plan by taking the lowest maintenance cost and the lowest expected power shortage as targets, and comprehensively considers the multiple targets of the economy and the reliability of the maintenance plan.
However, in the above scheme, the granularity is too coarse, only the power transformation scale capacity and the line length are considered, and other factors influencing the maintenance, such as a maintenance cycle factor, a production period factor, a power failure planning factor, an operation environment factor, an economic level factor, a safety and stability factor, a power transformation type factor, an actual scale factor and the like are not considered, so that the actual investment difference between the operation and maintenance cost and the equipment operation and maintenance cost is large, the user experience is poor, and the popularization and the use are not facilitated.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention aims to provide a method for controlling the power distribution system to fully consider various factors such as maintenance period factors, production life factors, power failure planning factors, operating environment factors, economic level factors, safety and stability factors, power transformation type factors and actual scale factors to influence maintenance cost; constructing a correction model of the operation and maintenance cost by adopting a drift diameter analysis method; and then, correcting the standard cost of the operation and maintenance of the power distribution network engineering by using the correction model to obtain the optimized operation and maintenance cost of the power distribution network engineering, so that the operation and maintenance cost meets the investment of the cost of the whole life cycle and is close to the actual investment of the operation and maintenance cost of the equipment, the user experience is good, and the method and the system for optimizing the operation and maintenance cost of the power distribution network engineering are convenient to popularize and use.
In order to achieve the above object, a first technical solution of the present invention is:
a method for optimizing the operation and maintenance cost of a power distribution network project,
the method comprises the following steps:
firstly, acquiring operation and maintenance data of a plurality of periods;
the period is days or months or quarters or years;
secondly, determining overhaul cost influence factors of the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power distribution network equipment according to the operation, maintenance and overhaul data obtained in the first step;
the overhaul cost influence factors comprise overhaul period factors, production year factors, power failure plan factors, operation environment factors, economic level factors, safety and stability factors, power transformation type factors and actual scale factors;
thirdly, constructing a correction model of the operation and maintenance cost by using the maintenance cost influence factors in the second step and adopting a path analysis method;
and fourthly, correcting the standard cost of the power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance by using the correction model in the third step to obtain the optimized power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost.
Through continuous exploration and test, various factors such as maintenance cycle factors, production year factors, power failure planning factors, operation environment factors, economic level factors, safety and stability factors, power transformation type factors, actual scale factors and the like are fully considered, and the influence on maintenance cost is caused; constructing a correction model of the operation and maintenance cost by adopting a drift diameter analysis method; and then, the standard cost of the operation and maintenance of the power distribution network engineering is corrected by using the correction model, and the optimized operation and maintenance cost of the power distribution network engineering is obtained, so that the operation and maintenance cost meets the investment of the whole life cycle cost and is close to the actual investment of the operation and maintenance cost of equipment, the user experience is good, and the popularization and the use are convenient.
As a preferable technical measure:
the maintenance cycle factors are used for reflecting the maintenance cycle lengths of the main equipment and the power transmission line and comprise non-maintenance operation time factors;
the non-overhauled runtime: for a substation or converter station, the overhauled runtime refers to the average overhaul period in which the primary equipment is maintained; for the transmission line, the maintenance period of the line is referred to;
generally, the longer the unchecked run time, the higher the operating maintenance costs;
the production year limit factors comprise production years and working years;
the production period is the period of operation of equipment or lines in the power grid, and the influence of the production period on the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment is mainly analyzed from the perspective of the working life;
the service life refers to the number of years a power grid device runs; if the running time of one device is longer, the probability of the device breaking down is higher, and the cost required for overhauling the device is higher;
the power failure plan factors directly relate to the arrangement of the operation maintenance and repair plan, are important factors influencing the operation maintenance and repair cost, and comprise power failure frequency and average power failure time;
the power failure frequency is as follows: for a transformer substation or a converter station, the power failure frequency refers to the average power failure frequency of main equipment in the transformer substation or the converter station within one year; for the transmission line, the power failure frequency of the load supplied by the line within one year is referred to; generally, the higher the power failure frequency is, the more the operation and maintenance work frequency is required to be input, so that the operation and maintenance cost is increased;
the average power failure time is as follows: reflecting the influence of power failure plan factors on the operation and maintenance cost;
the longer the average power failure time is, the larger the influence on the whole station or line is, and more operation and maintenance cost is naturally required to be invested;
the operating environment factors comprise terrain and landform and meteorological parameters;
the operation, maintenance and repair of the power grid equipment are influenced by the self factors of the equipment, and the influence of the operation environmental factors cannot be ignored; the change of the environment is transmitted to the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment through various channels, and the influence degrees are different; the operation environment factors can be mainly analyzed from two aspects of landform and physiognomy parameters;
landform: geological factors affect the operation, maintenance and repair cost of the power grid equipment; if the operation and maintenance of the transformer substation needs to pass through geological types which are difficult for vehicles and personnel to pass through, the operation and maintenance cost is increased;
meteorological parameters: according to local conditions, aiming at different regions and different meteorological conditions, various requirements of operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment need to be fully considered, and the influence of the meteorological conditions on the operation, maintenance and overhaul cost of the power grid equipment, including ice covering, seasons and construction time, needs to be considered in the planning stage of the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment;
the main meteorological factors influencing the operation and maintenance cost of the power grid equipment comprise ice coating, seasons, construction time and the like; the ice coating increases the difficulty of operation and maintenance, the ice coating thickness of the equipment directly influences the investment of operation and maintenance engineering, and the cost is greatly influenced; the different temperature and climate can be caused by different seasons, the operation and maintenance of the power grid equipment are more and more sensitive to the temperature, the operation and maintenance of the extra-high voltage equipment can be directly influenced by the temperature change, and the operation and maintenance cost is increased; different operation time can lead to different operation difficulty degrees and also can influence the operation maintenance cost;
the economic level factors refer to the general overview of national economic development, international and domestic economic situations and economic development trends, and industrial environment and competitive environment faced by enterprises, including depreciation level, production price index and resident consumption price index; analyzing the influence of economic level factors on the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment through three layers;
the depreciation level is as follows: some equipment belongs to old equipment after operating for a certain time; for the equipment, the cost of operation, maintenance and repair is embodied in that the cost is depreciation cost; obviously, the operation, maintenance and repair costs of the substation equipment are affected due to the different depreciation levels;
production price index: the index mainly measures the factory price change trend and change degree of products of industrial enterprises, is an important economic index reflecting the price change condition of a certain period of production field, is also an important basis for making relevant economic policies and national economic accounting, and comprises material price information of three production stages of raw materials, semi-finished products and final products;
in the operation, maintenance and repair process of the transformer substation, a large amount of raw materials, machinery and other materials need to be purchased, so that the operation, maintenance and repair cost is inevitably deviated to a certain extent due to the change of the production price index;
the resident consumption price index: the method measures the relative number of the price level of a group of representative consumer goods and service items which changes along with time, and is used for reflecting the change situation of the price level of the consumer goods and service purchased by the resident family; the variation rate reflects the degree of inflation or deflation of the currency to a certain extent; when the resident consumption price index CPI rises due to demand pulling, the price of related production data rises, such as the increase of resource products and labor cost, so that the increase of the cost of maintainers and the cost of materials is indirectly caused; therefore, the operation and maintenance cost of the transformer substation is influenced by the consumption price index CPI of residents.
As a preferable technical measure:
the identification and influence of safety and stability factors mainly comprise the following contents:
the safety and stability factors refer to the safety and stability conditions of the power grid equipment in the daily operation process, and comprise load rate, overload rate, reliability, equipment country yield, equipment defect rate and state score, and the influence of the safety and stability factors on the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment is analyzed through the 6 angles;
the load factor is the ratio of the actual power of the equipment in the working state to the rated power of the equipment; when the equipment continuously works in a state of overhigh load rate for a long time, the aging speed of the equipment is faster than that of the equipment working at a low load rate, and the fault problem is more likely to occur, so that the operation, maintenance and repair of the equipment are influenced;
the overload rate is the ratio of the actual power of the equipment in the working state to the rated power of the equipment when the ratio exceeds one hundred percent; the magnitude of the overload rate is generally used to measure the degree to which the device is overloaded; the higher the overload rate of the equipment is, the more unstable the running state of the equipment is, the more easily the fault risk occurs;
the reliability specifically includes the following contents:
the occurrence of the equipment defects can cause power supply faults, and the times of the power supply faults caused by the equipment defects are analyzed through historical data and used as equipment reliability evaluation specific values; the lower the reliability of one device is, the higher the possibility of failure is, and the more necessary the operation and maintenance are to be carried out in time;
the equipment state yield specifically comprises the following contents:
the quality of imported equipment is higher than that of domestic equipment, and when the domestic rate of the equipment in the transformer substation is higher, the overhaul frequency and the investment cost are correspondingly higher, so that the operation and maintenance cost is higher;
the equipment defect rate specifically comprises the following contents:
the increase of the defect rate of the equipment causes the increase of the overhaul frequency and the overhaul input cost, so the defect rate is also an influence factor of the operation and maintenance overhaul cost;
the state score specifically includes the following contents:
in the operation, maintenance and repair operation of the power distribution network project, the state of the operation equipment is judged through state grading; the state score represents whether the running state of the equipment is healthy or not; the lower the equipment state score is, the higher the probability of the equipment failure is, the more accessories needing to be overhauled or replaced are, and the higher the operation and maintenance cost is naturally; in a transformer substation or a converter station, each device has a corresponding state score, and the operation and maintenance cost of the whole substation is greatly influenced by the corresponding state scores of the main devices.
As a preferable technical measure:
the actual scale factors include the following:
the actual scale factor refers to the specific scale condition of a substation or a line in the power grid, measures the function task specifically borne by one substation or line, and is mainly reflected by the scale capacity index;
scale capacity: the capacity of transformation or transmission born by a transformer station or a line in the power grid; generally, in a substation or a line with large scale and capacity, the more serious the consequence caused by the failure of the corresponding equipment is, the more energy is needed to be invested in operation and maintenance.
As a preferable technical measure:
the correction model in the third step is used for reflecting the relationship between a plurality of overhaul cost influence factors and the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein r isn0A correlation coefficient of the deviation cost of the operation and maintenance overhaul cost of a certain overhaul cost influence factor;
rijthe mutual influence coefficient of some two overhaul cost influence factors;
Pn0a drift diameter coefficient from a certain overhaul cost influence factor to the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost;
and comprehensively considering the analysis of the total contribution of the drift diameter coefficient, the correlation coefficient, the decision coefficient and the regression reliability degree R2 to obtain the order of the influence degree of each overhaul cost influence factor on the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost, and further determining the important overhaul cost influence factor.
As a preferable technical measure:
the drift diameter coefficient Pn0The method is used for reflecting the relative importance degree and the property of the influence of a certain overhaul cost influence factor on the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein, bnA linear regression coefficient of a certain overhaul cost influence factor and the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost;
σ0the standard deviation of the operation maintenance cost deviation cost;
σnis the standard deviation of a certain overhaul cost influence factor.
As a preferable technical measure:
the total contribution of the regression reliability degree R2 is the product of a drift diameter coefficient and a correlation coefficient of the influence factor of the maintenance cost and the deviation cost of the operation maintenance cost;
the determination coefficient is the square of the path coefficient.
As a preferable technical measure:
cost of service influencing factors include x1、x2(ii) a The operation and maintenance cost deviation cost is y;
the linear regression equation is as follows:
y＝b1*x1+b2*x2；
b1is x1A linear regression coefficient of the cost of deviation from the operation maintenance cost;
b2is x2And (4) linear regression coefficient of cost deviation from operation maintenance cost.
As a preferable technical measure:
the linear regression equation is normalized by the standard deviation so that b1And b2Becomes a relative number without units, and then determines the linear relation of the normalized variables so as to be represented by b1And b2Comparison x1And x2The degree of importance of the effect on y;
obtaining a weighted average value equation according to a linear regression equation, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
subtracting the weighted average value equation from the regression equation to obtain a phase difference equation, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
standard deviation sigma of phase difference equation divided by y0To obtain a normalized regression equation:
transforming the normalized regression equation to obtain a normalized x1、x2And y is as follows:
and obtaining a normalized equation by using a normalized calculation formula, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
in order to achieve the above object, a second technical solution of the present invention is:
the utility model provides a distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization system, it includes:
one or more processors;
storage means for storing one or more programs;
when executed by the one or more processors, the one or more programs cause the one or more processors to implement a power distribution network project operation and maintenance cost optimization method as described above.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
through continuous exploration and test, various factors such as maintenance cycle factors, production year factors, power failure planning factors, operation environment factors, economic level factors, safety and stability factors, power transformation type factors, actual scale factors and the like are fully considered, and the influence on maintenance cost is caused; constructing a correction model of the operation and maintenance cost by adopting a drift diameter analysis method; and then, the standard cost of the operation and maintenance of the power distribution network engineering is corrected by using the correction model, and the optimized operation and maintenance cost of the power distribution network engineering is obtained, so that the operation and maintenance cost meets the investment of the whole life cycle cost and is close to the actual investment of the operation and maintenance cost of equipment, the user experience is good, and the popularization and the use are convenient.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a diagram of influence relationship between the cause and the effect of the present invention (influence factors are independent from each other);
FIG. 2 is a diagram of influence relationships between causes and outcomes of the present invention (influence factors are related to each other);
FIG. 3 is a flowchart of a path analysis metric algorithm of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
On the contrary, the invention is intended to cover alternatives, modifications, equivalents and alternatives which may be included within the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims. Furthermore, in the following detailed description of the present invention, certain specific details are set forth in order to provide a better understanding of the present invention. It will be apparent to one skilled in the art that the present invention may be practiced without these specific details.
A method for optimizing the operation and maintenance cost of a power distribution network project,
the method comprises the following steps:
firstly, acquiring operation and maintenance data of a plurality of periods;
the period is days or months or quarters or years;
secondly, determining overhaul cost influence factors of the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power distribution network equipment according to the operation, maintenance and overhaul data obtained in the first step;
the overhaul cost influence factors comprise overhaul period factors, production year factors, power failure plan factors, operation environment factors, economic level factors, safety and stability factors, power transformation type factors and actual scale factors;
thirdly, constructing a correction model of the operation and maintenance cost by using the maintenance cost influence factors in the second step and adopting a path analysis method;
and fourthly, correcting the standard cost of the power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance by using the correction model in the third step to obtain the optimized power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost.
Through continuous exploration and test, various factors such as maintenance cycle factors, production year factors, power failure planning factors, operation environment factors, economic level factors, safety and stability factors, power transformation type factors, actual scale factors and the like are fully considered, and the influence on maintenance cost is caused; constructing a correction model of the operation and maintenance cost by adopting a drift diameter analysis method; and then, the standard cost of the operation and maintenance of the power distribution network engineering is corrected by using the correction model, and the optimized operation and maintenance cost of the power distribution network engineering is obtained, so that the operation and maintenance cost meets the investment of the whole life cycle cost and is close to the actual investment of the operation and maintenance cost of equipment, the user experience is good, and the popularization and the use are convenient.
One specific embodiment of the present invention for identifying influencing factors is:
the cost of operating, maintaining and repairing power distribution network equipment can be affected by many different factors. The research is carried out on the operation, maintenance and repair of the power distribution network engineering, the system combs relevant influence factors of the operation, maintenance and repair of the power distribution network equipment, the specific contents of various influence factors and the influence mechanism of the influence factors on the operation, maintenance and repair cost of the power distribution network equipment are as follows:
1) factor of maintenance period
The maintenance cycle of the main equipment and the power transmission line is long, and certain influence is generated on the operation, maintenance and repair operation cost.
Non-overhaul running time: for a substation or converter station, the overhauled runtime refers to the average overhaul period in which the primary equipment is maintained; for the transmission line, the maintenance period of the line is referred to. Generally, the longer the unchecked run time, the higher the operating maintenance costs.
2) Year of operation
The production period is the period of operation of the equipment or line in the power grid. The method is mainly used for analyzing the influence of the working age on the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment from the working age point.
Working age: the service refers to the number of years that a power grid device is operating. If an equipment has a longer running time, the probability of the equipment failing is higher, and the cost of the investment required for overhauling the equipment is higher.
3) Factors of power cut plan
The power failure plan is directly related to the arrangement of the operation and maintenance plan, so that the power failure plan is also an important factor influencing the operation and maintenance cost, and has power failure frequency and average power failure time.
Power failure frequency: for a transformer substation or a converter station, the power failure frequency refers to the average power failure frequency of main equipment in the transformer substation or the converter station within one year; for transmission lines, the number of power outages of a year is the load supplied by the line. Generally, the higher the frequency of power failure, the more the number of operations and maintenance work that need to be performed, which increases the operation and maintenance cost.
Average power off time: and the influence of power failure planning factors on the operation and maintenance repair cost is reflected from another angle. The longer the average blackout time, the greater the impact on the whole station or line, and naturally the more operation and maintenance costs need to be invested.
4) Operating environment factors
Besides being influenced by the self factors of the equipment, the influence of the operating environment factors on the operation, maintenance and repair of the power grid equipment cannot be ignored. The change of the environment is transmitted to the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment through various channels, and the influence degree is different. The operating environment factors can be mainly analyzed from two aspects of landform and physiognomy parameters.
Landform: the geological factors also have certain influence on the operation, maintenance and repair cost of the power grid equipment. If the operation and maintenance of the transformer substation needs to pass through geological types which are difficult for vehicles and personnel to pass through, the operation and maintenance cost is increased.
Meteorological parameters: according to local conditions, various requirements of power grid equipment operation and maintenance need to be fully considered for different regions and different meteorological conditions, and the influence of the meteorological conditions on the power grid equipment operation and maintenance cost needs to be considered in the planning stage of the power grid equipment operation and maintenance. The main meteorological factors influencing the operation and maintenance cost of the power grid equipment comprise ice coating, seasons, construction time and the like. The ice coating increases the difficulty of operation and maintenance, the ice coating thickness of the equipment directly influences the investment of operation and maintenance engineering, and the cost is greatly influenced; the different temperature and climate can be caused by different seasons, the operation and maintenance of the power grid equipment are more and more sensitive to the temperature, the operation and maintenance of the extra-high voltage equipment can be directly influenced by the temperature change, and the operation and maintenance cost is increased; different operation time can lead to different operation difficulty degrees and also can influence the operation and maintenance cost.
5) Economic level factor
The economic level factors refer to the general overview of national economic development, international and domestic economic situation and economic development trend, industrial environment and competitive environment faced by enterprises and the like. The influence of economic level factors on the operation, maintenance and overhaul of power grid equipment is mainly analyzed on three levels of depreciation level, production price index and resident consumption price index.
Depreciation level: some devices operate for a certain time and belong to old devices. For such equipment, in the process of operation, maintenance and repair, the influence of operation for a certain time on the operation, maintenance and repair of the equipment can be considered, which is reflected in the cost of depreciation. Obviously, the difference of depreciation levels can affect the operation, maintenance and overhaul costs of the substation equipment.
Production Price Index (PPI): the index mainly used for measuring the factory price change trend and change degree of products of industrial enterprises is an important economic index for reflecting the price change condition of a certain period of production field and is also an important basis for making relevant economic policies and national economic accounting. The index includes price information of raw material, semi-finished product and final product. In the operation and maintenance process of the transformer substation, a large amount of raw materials, machinery and other materials need to be purchased, so that the change of the production price index inevitably causes certain deviation of the operation and maintenance cost.
The resident consumption price index: the method is a relative number for measuring the price level change of a group of representative consumer goods and service items along with time, and is used for reflecting the change situation of the price level of the consumer goods and service purchased by the resident family. The rate of change reflects to some extent the degree to which the currency expands or contracts. When the CPI rises due to the pulling of the demand, the prices of related productive materials, such as resource products and labor cost, rise, and the cost of the maintainers and materials is increased indirectly. Therefore, the operation and maintenance cost of the transformer substation is influenced by the resident Consumption Price Index (CPI).
6) Identification and influence mechanism of safety and stability factors
And the safety and stability factor refers to the safety and stability condition of the power grid equipment in the daily operation process. The influence of the method on the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment is analyzed from the 6 aspects of load rate, overload rate, reliability, equipment country yield, equipment defect rate and state score.
Load factor: the load factor of a device is the ratio of the actual power of the device in its operating state to its rated power. When the equipment continuously works in a state of overhigh load rate for a long time, the aging speed of the equipment is faster than that of the equipment working at a low load rate, and the problem of failure is more likely to occur, thereby influencing the operation, maintenance and repair of the equipment.
Overload rate: the overload rate of a device is the ratio of the actual power of the device in its operating state to its rated power when it exceeds one hundred percent. The magnitude of the overload rate is typically used to measure how heavily the device is operating. The higher the overload rate of the plant means that the less stable the operating state of the plant, the more susceptible to failure risks.
Reliability: the occurrence of the equipment defects often causes power supply faults, and specific equipment reliability values can be evaluated for the equipment by analyzing the times of the power supply faults caused by the equipment defects through historical data. The lower the reliability of a piece of equipment, the higher the probability of failure, and the more necessary it is to perform timely maintenance.
Yield of the equipment country: the quality of imported equipment is higher than that of domestic equipment, so if the domestic rate of equipment in the transformer substation is higher, the overhaul frequency and the investment cost are correspondingly higher. Therefore, the equipment state yield of the substation will also affect the operation and maintenance cost.
Equipment defect rate: the increase of the defect rate of the equipment inevitably leads to the increase of the overhaul frequency and the overhaul input cost, and therefore, the increase of the defect rate of the equipment is also an influence factor of the operation and maintenance cost.
And (3) state scoring: in the operation, maintenance and repair operation of the power distribution network project, the state of the operation equipment can be judged through state scoring. The high and low of the state score represents whether the running state of the equipment is healthy or not. The lower the equipment state score, the higher the probability of failure of the equipment, the more accessories that need to be repaired or replaced, and naturally the higher the maintenance cost. In a transformer substation or a converter station, each device has a corresponding state score, and the operation and maintenance cost of the whole substation is greatly influenced by the corresponding state scores of the main devices.
7) Factor of actual size
The actual scale factor refers to the specific scale condition of a substation or a line in the power grid, measures the function task specifically borne by one substation or line, and is mainly reflected by the scale capacity index.
Scale capacity: the capacity of transformation or transmission born by a transformer station or a line in the power grid. Generally, in a substation or a line with large scale and capacity, the more serious the consequence caused by the failure of the corresponding equipment is, the more energy is needed to be invested in operation and maintenance.
One specific embodiment of the correction model of the present invention:
and constructing a correction model of the influence factors on the operation and maintenance cost by adopting a drift diameter analysis method.
The modified model includes at least three related variables, namely y, x1, x 2.
Wherein y is the operation and maintenance cost deviation cost, namely the consequence; x1 and x2 are the cost contributors to the overhaul, i.e., the causes. The numerical values of the overhaul cost influence factors x1 and x2 have an influence on the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost y.
If x1 and x2 are independent of each other, the influence relationship between the cause and the consequence is as shown in fig. 1.
If x1 and x2 are related to each other, the influence relationship between the three is shown in fig. 2.
The path is defined as the one-way arrows →, in the graph, representing causal relationships between variables, the direction from cause to effect; the correlation line is defined as the two-way arrow ← → showing the correlation between variables in the graph and showing a parallel relationship; one correlation line is equivalent to two paths connected with the tail ends, and an arrow-shaped graph representing the causal relationship or the parallel relationship between the correlation variables is the path graph.
By making a path diagram, the relation between related variables is visually and intuitively expressed. However, this is only a qualitative expression, which is not sufficient, and further quantitative representation is required to express the relative importance and nature of the effect of the factors on the results in the causal relationship, and the relative importance and nature of the correlation between the variables in the parallel relationship. In other words, the path and the number of related lines are quantized. Wherein, the quantity which represents the relative importance degree and the property of the 'drift diameter' is called the drift diameter coefficient; the quantity representing the relative degree of importance and nature of the "correlation line" is called the correlation coefficient.
Since y and x1And x2There is a linear relationship between them, and the regression equation is: y is b1*x1+b2*x2And x is1And x2There is a correlation between them, and the path diagrams between these three variables are shown in fig. 1 and fig. 2.
In the regression equation, b1 and b2 have units, which are inconvenient to be represented by b1And b2Comparison x1And x2The degree of importance of the effect on y. Now will be y, x1And x2Normalized by standard deviation, to relative numbers without units, and the linear relationship of the normalized variables was studied.
From the regression equation above, one can obtain
Subtracting the above formula from the regression equation
Standard deviation sigma of above equation divided by y0Can obtain
Remember that there are
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
is a partial regression coefficient normalized by the variables, the physical meaning being the relative importance and nature of the effects of x1 and x2 on y. Therefore, will
And the path coefficients defined as x1 to y and x2 to y are marked as P10 and P20.
Through the normalization process, the path coefficient becomes a normalized coefficient without a unit. This makes it easier to study the influence relationships between variables.
On the basis of the definition of the path coefficient and the correlation coefficient, the concept of determining the coefficient is introduced. The decision coefficient between the influence factor of the individual overhaul cost and the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost is defined as the square of the drift diameter coefficient, namely
The two equations are respectively the determination coefficients between the overhaul cost influence factor x1 and the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost y, and between the overhaul cost influence factor x2 and the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost y.
If there is a correlation between the two factors, besides the decision coefficient between the independent factors and the operation and maintenance cost, the decision coefficient of the two factors on the result is defined as
d12,0＝2P10r12P20(2-7)
The above formula is a coefficient for determining the operation and maintenance cost deviation cost y of the related maintenance cost influencing factors x1 and x 2.
The product of the drift diameter coefficient and the correlation coefficient of the influence factor of the independent maintenance cost and the deviation cost of the operation and maintenance cost also has physical significance. Definition P10r10，P20r20The total contribution of the overhaul cost influencing factors x1 and x2 to the regression reliability degree R2, respectively.
For the path diagrams shown in fig. 1 and 2, the following important properties are present:
in the formula, P10And P20Path coefficients of x1 to y and x2 to y, r10，r20，r12(r21) Representing the correlation coefficients between x1 and y, x2 and y, and x1 and x2, respectively.
The above equation shows that the correlation coefficient between x1 and y can be divided into two parts: one is the direct influence of x1 on y, namely the x1 to y path coefficient P in the formula10(ii) a Secondly, x2 indirectly influences y through x1, namely the product term r in the formula12P20. The same analysis can be done for the correlation coefficient between X2 and y.
Rewriting to matrix form
The method is popularized to the following relation between a plurality of overhaul cost influence factors and operation and maintenance overhaul expense deviation cost:
and comprehensively considering direct action analysis, indirect action analysis, decision analysis and R2 total contribution degree analysis to obtain the order of the influence degree of each overhaul cost influence factor on the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost, and further determining important overhaul cost influence factors.
Specifically, as shown in fig. 3, by using the method of path analysis, the influence coefficient of the influence factor on the operation and maintenance cost deviation cost can be determined, so as to determine a quantitative optimization correction model of each influence factor on the operation and maintenance cost.
Explaining how to determine the drift diameter coefficients and the related coefficients of the various influencing factors of the operation, maintenance and overhaul costs:
when a certain device or line of the power distribution network engineering is operated and maintained, the input cost and the output benefit are the same, so that the actual input cost of the operation and maintenance can be determined according to the economic benefit brought by the operation and maintenance over the years and used as the output quantity of the path analysis model. And then, the measurement values of all the influencing factors of the operation and maintenance in the past year are used as model input, and the equations shown in (1-1) - (1-4) can be solved to obtain the drift diameter coefficients and the correlation coefficients of all the factors of the drift diameter analysis model. Thus, a perfect path analysis model is established, and the method can be applied to cost correction parameter optimization.
An application embodiment of the present invention:
the operation and maintenance cost correction of a certain distribution network engineering transformer substation and a certain section of power transmission line in Zhejiang province is taken as an object to explain the correction effect of the drift diameter analysis model on the operation and maintenance cost of the transformer substation and the line.
1) Operation and maintenance overhaul of certain transformer substation in Zhejiang province
Firstly, according to the research result of the whole-cost comprehensive unit price and index system, the standard cost of the operation and maintenance of the transformer substation is 559.47 ten thousand yuan.
And determining the influence factor metric of the operation and maintenance overhaul cost of the transformer substation, thereby determining the input of the correction model.
| Index of influence factor | Metric value | Index of influence factor | Metric value |
| Unchecked runtime x1 | 3 days | Load factor x10 | 60％ |
| Service age x2 | For 16 years | Overload rate x11 | 4.30％ |
| Frequency of power failure x3 | 7 times (twice) | Reliability x12 | 99％ |
| Average power off time x4 | 1.3 hours | Yield of the plant x13 | 70 |
| Landform x5 | 1 | Equipment defect rate x14 | 8.10％ |
| Meteorological parameter x6 | 1.188 | Status score x15 | 83.2 |
| Depreciation level x7 | 5％ | Regular/intelligent station x16 | 0 |
| PPI x8 | 98.5 | Scale Capacity x17 | 750MVA* |
| CPI x9 | 101.5 |
Through a drift diameter analysis method model, a cost correction coefficient calculation formula obtained through calculation is as follows:
the measurement value of the above-mentioned influencing factor is substituted into the calculation formula, and the obtained cost correction coefficient is 4.3%. Thus, the operation and maintenance cost of a certain substation after correction is obtained to be 559.47 × 583.53 ten thousand yuan (1+ 4.3%).
2) Operation and maintenance overhaul of certain power transmission line in Zhejiang province
Firstly, according to the research result of the whole-cost comprehensive unit price and index system, the standard cost of the line operation and maintenance inspection is 146.24 ten thousand yuan.
And determining the influence factor measurement value of the operation and maintenance cost of the transformer substation as shown in the following table, thereby determining the input of the correction model.
| Index of influence factor | Metric value | Index of influence factor | Metric value |
| Non-overhauled running time x1 | 6 days | Depreciation level x7 | 6％ |
| Service age x2 | For 10 years | PPI x8 | 98.5 |
| Frequency of power failure x3 | 2 times (one time) | CPI x9 | 101.5 |
| Average power off time X4 | 1.9 hours | Load factor x10 | 70％ |
| Landform x5 | 1.192 | Defect rate x11 | 4.10％ |
| Meteorological parameter x6 | 1.276 | Reliability x12 | 99％ |
Through a drift diameter analysis method model, a cost correction coefficient calculation formula obtained through calculation is as follows:
the measurement value of the above-mentioned influence factor is substituted into the calculation formula, and the obtained cost correction coefficient is 5.1%. Thus, the operation and maintenance cost of a certain substation after correction is obtained to be 146.24 × 153.70 ten thousand yuan (1+ 5.1%).
A system embodiment to which the method of the invention is applied:
the utility model provides a distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization system, it includes:
one or more processors;
storage means for storing one or more programs;
when executed by the one or more processors, the one or more programs cause the one or more processors to implement a power distribution network project operation and maintenance cost optimization method as described above.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.
Claims (10)
1. A power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method is characterized in that,
the method comprises the following steps:
firstly, acquiring operation and maintenance data of a plurality of periods;
the period is days or months or quarters or years;
secondly, determining overhaul cost influence factors of the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power distribution network equipment according to the operation, maintenance and overhaul data obtained in the first step;
the overhaul cost influence factors comprise overhaul period factors, production year factors, power failure plan factors, operation environment factors, economic level factors, safety and stability factors, power transformation type factors and actual scale factors;
thirdly, constructing a correction model of the operation and maintenance cost by using the maintenance cost influence factors in the second step and adopting a path analysis method;
and fourthly, correcting the standard cost of the power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance by using the correction model in the third step to obtain the optimized power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost.
2. The power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method according to claim 1,
the maintenance cycle factors are used for reflecting the maintenance cycle lengths of the main equipment and the power transmission line and comprise non-maintenance operation time factors;
the non-overhauled runtime: for a substation or converter station, the overhauled runtime refers to the average overhaul period in which the primary equipment is maintained; for the transmission line, the maintenance period of the line is referred to;
the production year limit factors comprise production years and working years;
the production period is the period of operation of equipment or lines in the power grid, and the influence of the production period on the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment is mainly analyzed from the perspective of the working life;
the service life refers to the number of years a power grid device runs;
the power failure planning factors comprise power failure frequency and average power failure time;
the power failure frequency is as follows: for a transformer substation or a converter station, the power failure frequency refers to the average power failure frequency of main equipment in the transformer substation or the converter station within one year; for the transmission line, the power failure frequency of the load supplied by the line within one year is referred to; the average power failure time is as follows: reflecting the influence of power failure plan factors on the operation and maintenance cost;
the operating environment factors comprise terrain and landform and meteorological parameters;
landform: geological factors affect the operation, maintenance and repair cost of the power grid equipment;
meteorological parameters: aiming at different regions and different meteorological conditions, various requirements of operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment need to be fully considered, and the influence of the meteorological conditions on the operation, maintenance and overhaul cost of the power grid equipment, including ice covering, seasons and construction time, needs to be considered in the planning stage of the operation, maintenance and overhaul of the power grid equipment;
the economic level factors refer to the general overview of national economic development, international and domestic economic situations and economic development trends, and industrial environment and competitive environment faced by enterprises, including depreciation level, production price index and resident consumption price index;
the depreciation level is as follows: the cost of operating maintenance and repair after a certain period of operation of some equipment;
production price index: the index mainly measures the factory price change trend and change degree of products of industrial enterprises, and comprises the price information of raw materials, semi-finished products and final products in three production stages;
the resident consumption price index: the method measures the relative number of the price level of a group of representative consumer goods and service items which changes along with time, and is used for reflecting the change situation of the price level of the consumer goods and service purchased by the resident family; the variation rate reflects the degree of inflation or deflation of the currency to a certain extent; when the demand pull causes the resident consumption price index CPI to rise, the price of the relevant productivity data rises.
3. The power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method according to claim 1,
the identification and influence of safety and stability factors mainly comprise the following contents:
the safety and stability factors refer to the safety and stability conditions of the power grid equipment in the daily operation process, and comprise load rate, overload rate, reliability, equipment country yield, equipment defect rate and state score;
the load factor is the ratio of the actual power of the equipment in the working state to the rated power of the equipment;
the overload rate is the ratio of the actual power of the equipment in the working state to the rated power of the equipment when the ratio exceeds one hundred percent; the magnitude of the overload rate is generally used to measure the degree to which the device is overloaded;
the reliability specifically includes the following contents:
the occurrence of the equipment defects can cause power supply faults, and the times of the power supply faults caused by the equipment defects are analyzed through historical data and used as equipment reliability evaluation specific values;
the equipment state yield specifically comprises the following contents:
the quality of imported equipment is higher than that of domestic equipment, and when the domestic rate of the equipment in the transformer substation is higher, the overhaul frequency and the investment cost are correspondingly higher, so that the operation and maintenance cost is higher;
the equipment defect rate specifically comprises the following contents:
the increase of the defect rate of the equipment causes the increase of the maintenance frequency and the maintenance input cost;
the state score specifically includes the following contents:
in the operation, maintenance and repair operation of the power distribution network project, the state of the operation equipment is judged through state grading; the high and low of the state score represents whether the running state of the equipment is healthy or not.
4. The power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method according to claim 1,
the actual scale factors include the following:
the actual scale factor refers to the specific scale condition of a substation or a line in the power grid, measures the function task specifically borne by one substation or line, and is mainly reflected by the scale capacity index;
scale capacity: the capacity of transformation or transmission born by a transformer station or a line in the power grid.
5. The power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method according to claim 1,
the correction model in the third step is used for reflecting the relationship between a plurality of overhaul cost influence factors and the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein r isn0A correlation coefficient of the deviation cost of the operation and maintenance overhaul cost of a certain overhaul cost influence factor;
rijthe mutual influence coefficient of some two overhaul cost influence factors;
Pn0a drift diameter coefficient from a certain overhaul cost influence factor to the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost;
and comprehensively considering the analysis of the total contribution of the drift diameter coefficient, the correlation coefficient, the decision coefficient and the regression reliability degree R2 to obtain the order of the influence degree of each overhaul cost influence factor on the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost, and further determining the important overhaul cost influence factor.
6. The power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method according to claim 5,
the drift diameter coefficient Pn0The method is used for reflecting the relative importance degree and the property of the influence of a certain overhaul cost influence factor on the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein, bnA linear regression coefficient of a certain overhaul cost influence factor and the operation and maintenance overhaul cost deviation cost;
σ0the standard deviation of the operation maintenance cost deviation cost;
σnis the standard deviation of a certain overhaul cost influence factor.
7. The power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method according to claim 6,
the total contribution of the regression reliability degree R2 is the product of a drift diameter coefficient and a correlation coefficient of the influence factor of the maintenance cost and the deviation cost of the operation maintenance cost;
the determination coefficient is the square of the path coefficient.
8. The power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method according to claim 7,
cost of service influencing factors include x1、x2(ii) a The operation and maintenance cost deviation cost is y;
the linear regression equation is as follows:
y＝b1*x1+b2*x2；
b1is x1A linear regression coefficient of the cost of deviation from the operation maintenance cost;
b2is x2And (4) linear regression coefficient of cost deviation from operation maintenance cost.
9. The power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method according to claim 8,
the linear regression equation is normalized by the standard deviation so that b1And b2Becomes a relative number without units, and then determines the linear relation of the normalized variables so as to be represented by b1And b2Comparison x1And x2The degree of importance of the effect on y;
obtaining a weighted average value equation according to a linear regression equation, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
subtracting the weighted average value equation from the regression equation to obtain a phase difference equation, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
standard deviation sigma of phase difference equation divided by y0To obtain a normalized regression equation:
transforming the normalized regression equation to obtain a normalized x1、x2And y is as follows:
and obtaining a normalized equation by using a normalized calculation formula, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
10. a power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization system is characterized in that,
it includes:
one or more processors;
storage means for storing one or more programs;
the one or more programs, when executed by the one or more processors, cause the one or more processors to implement a power distribution network engineering operation and maintenance cost optimization method as recited in any of claims 1-9.
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| CN115186939A (en) * | 2022-09-09 | 2022-10-14 | 中科航迈数控软件(深圳)有限公司 | Method for predicting carbon emission of processing equipment in full life cycle |
| CN116151869A (en) * | 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-23 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power transmission and transformation differential operation and maintenance cost analysis system |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN115186939A (en) * | 2022-09-09 | 2022-10-14 | 中科航迈数控软件(深圳)有限公司 | Method for predicting carbon emission of processing equipment in full life cycle |
| CN116151869A (en) * | 2023-04-19 | 2023-05-23 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power transmission and transformation differential operation and maintenance cost analysis system |
| CN116151869B (en) * | 2023-04-19 | 2023-06-27 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power transmission and transformation differential operation and maintenance cost analysis system |
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