CN114254214A - Traffic prediction method and system based on space-time hierarchical network - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a traffic prediction method and a system based on a space-time hierarchical network, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring traffic data, preprocessing the traffic data, and constructing to obtain a hierarchical regional enhanced network and a traffic characteristic matrix; taking the hierarchical regional enhancement network and the traffic characteristic matrix as the input of a prediction model, learning the spatial correlation and the temporal correlation, and outputting a prediction result; the predictive models include a region-aware spatial correlation model and a region-aware temporal correlation model. The system comprises: a preprocessing module and a prediction module. By using the method and the device, the time-space correlation in traffic data is effectively captured, and the accuracy of traffic flow prediction is improved. The invention is used as a traffic prediction method and system based on the space-time hierarchical network, and can be widely applied to the field of traffic prediction.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of traffic prediction, in particular to a traffic prediction method and system based on a space-time hierarchical network.
Background
The traffic prediction task is a key task for realizing traffic management, traffic planning and traffic control in an intelligent traffic system. The traffic prediction task aims to realize the prediction of traffic information such as traffic flow, traffic speed, traffic density and the like at the future time by analyzing the traffic information at the current and historical times and traffic-related external conditions.
The current prediction method mainly models traffic prediction into a time series mining problem, but only considers time correlation, and spatial correlation in traffic data is largely ignored (for example, spatial correlation between different roads or traffic monitoring points), so that the improvement of traffic prediction accuracy is greatly limited.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention aims to provide a traffic prediction method and system based on a space-time hierarchical network, which aims at a space-time data mining algorithm of a hierarchical region structure and improves the accuracy of a traffic prediction result by means of deep learning.
The first technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a traffic prediction method based on a space-time hierarchical network comprises the following steps:
acquiring traffic data, preprocessing the traffic data, and constructing to obtain a hierarchical regional enhanced network and a traffic characteristic matrix;
taking the hierarchical regional enhancement network and the traffic characteristic matrix as the input of a prediction model, learning the spatial correlation and the temporal correlation, and outputting a prediction result;
the predictive models include a region-aware spatial correlation model and a region-aware temporal correlation model.
Further, the step of acquiring traffic data and preprocessing the traffic data to construct a hierarchical regional enhanced network and a traffic feature matrix includes:
acquiring original traffic data;
from the original road networkAnd hierarchical region structureAdding the region as a virtual node into the network, extracting the connection relation between the node and the region and between the regions, and establishing a hierarchical regional enhanced network
Modeling traffic time sequence information in original traffic data as node attributes, and constructing a traffic characteristic matrix
Further, the step of using the hierarchical region enhancement network and the traffic feature matrix as input of the prediction model, learning the spatial correlation and the temporal correlation, and outputting the prediction result specifically includes:
graph attention network enhancing network according to hierarchical regionsSpatial topology of, traffic characteristic matrix to be inputConversion into a new feature matrix Xt;
Gated cyclic unit based on new feature matrix XtCalculating a corresponding hidden state matrix Ht;
Alternately passing through a graph attention network and a gate control circulation unit and recursively learning hidden states for multiple times, and then based on a hidden state matrix H of the last steptPerforming dimension transformation via a full link layer to obtain final prediction result
Further, the graph attention network enhances the network according to the hierarchical regionSpatial topology of, traffic characteristic matrix to be inputConversion into a new feature matrix XtThis step, in particular, comprises:
for traffic characteristic matrix to be inputAt each time step, modeling the spatial dependence relationship of the inter-node, the inter-node and inter-region perception based on the attention mechanism to obtain a corresponding new feature matrix Xt。
Further, the gated cyclic unit is based on the new feature matrix XtCalculating a corresponding hidden state matrix HtThis step, in particular, comprises:
the gate control circulation unit simultaneously models the time dependence relationship of region perception among nodes, between nodes and regions and between regions;
based on new feature matrix XtAnd the hidden state matrix H of the last time stept-1Obtaining the hidden state matrix H of the current time stept。
Further, the gated loop unit includes a reset gate that determines a degree of forgetting information for a past time step, and an update gate that determines a degree of transferring the information for the past time step to a next hidden state.
The second technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a traffic prediction system based on a spatiotemporal hierarchical network, comprising:
the preprocessing module is used for acquiring traffic data, preprocessing the traffic data and constructing a hierarchical regional enhanced network and a traffic characteristic matrix;
and the prediction module is used for taking the hierarchical region enhancement network and the traffic characteristic matrix as the input of the prediction model, learning the spatial correlation and the temporal correlation and outputting the prediction result.
The method and the system have the beneficial effects that: the invention further constructs a spatial correlation model and a time correlation model of regional perception based on the network by expanding the original road network into a hierarchical regional enhanced network so as to effectively capture the space-time correlation in traffic data and improve the accuracy of traffic flow prediction.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the steps of a traffic prediction method based on a spatio-temporal hierarchical network according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a data processing procedure of a prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating the establishment of a hierarchical regional enhanced network in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a data processing diagram of the attention network in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of a gate unit according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a block diagram of a traffic prediction system based on a spatiotemporal hierarchical network according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the figures and the specific embodiments. The step numbers in the following embodiments are provided only for convenience of illustration, the order between the steps is not limited at all, and the execution order of each step in the embodiments can be adapted according to the understanding of those skilled in the art.
The traffic space-time data relates to coding of space information in a road network and traffic data time sequence information at different moments, and are respectively represented by the traffic network and an attribute characteristic matrix: traffic roads are modeled as a undirected, unweighted graphWhereinIs a node set consisting of n nodes, viAnd epsilon is an edge set corresponding to the ith traffic monitoring point. Besides modeling the topological structure among the traffic monitoring points as a road network, the traffic timing information also needs to be modeled as node attributes, namely a feature matrix of the road network, as follows:
the traffic information of the time step t is modeled as a node attribute characteristic of the road network, expressed asWherein the column vector ftThe ith item of (a) represents the traffic information of the ith monitoring point in the time step t. Traffic characteristic matrixAnd representing the traffic information in p historical steps and the current time step t, wherein each column represents the traffic information of all traffic monitoring points in a corresponding single step.
The traffic prediction problem is defined as, at time t, given traffic topology informationTraffic flow information of past p time step lengths and current step lengthPredicting traffic information in future time steps of length qNamely:
referring to fig. 1 and 2, the present invention provides a traffic prediction method based on a spatio-temporal hierarchical network, the method comprising the steps of:
s1, acquiring traffic data, preprocessing the traffic data, and constructing to obtain a hierarchical regional enhanced network and a traffic characteristic matrix;
specifically, the hierarchical region structure existing in the traffic network is considered, after the traffic space-time data are obtained, a hierarchical region enhancement network needs to be constructed through data preprocessing, and the network data obtained through preprocessing are further used as the input of the traffic flow prediction model.
S2, taking the hierarchical regional enhancement network and the traffic characteristic matrix as the input of a prediction model, learning the spatial correlation and the temporal correlation, and outputting a prediction result;
the predictive models include a region-aware spatial correlation model and a region-aware temporal correlation model.
Further, as a preferred embodiment of the method, the step of acquiring traffic data, preprocessing the traffic data, and constructing and obtaining a hierarchical regional enhanced network and a traffic feature matrix specifically includes:
acquiring original traffic data;
modeling traffic time sequence information in original traffic data as node attributes, and constructing a traffic characteristic matrix
From the original road networkAnd hierarchical region structureExtracting the connection relation between nodes and regions and between regions, and establishing a hierarchical regional enhanced network
Specifically, the setup process is as shown in fig. 3. The left side of fig. 2 shows an original traffic road network with 15 nodes. Original sourceThe 15 nodes in the original network are divided into 5 regionsIn which 5 regions are further divided into 2 higher level regionsAndin (1). The right side of fig. 3 shows the process of building a hierarchical regional enhanced network: adding 7 virtual nodes v16,v17,v18,v19,v20,v21And v22Respectively represent regionsAndand adding new connecting edges into the network according to the hierarchical node-area, area-area membership and the adjacent relation between areas. In the obtained regional enhanced network, newly-established node connecting edges are represented by dotted lines, wherein three types of node-regional membership relations (such as connecting edges 10-19, 11-19, 12-19 and 13-19), regional-regional membership relations (such as connecting edges 16-21, 17-21, 18-22, 19-22 and 20-22) and regional-regional proximity relations (such as connecting edges 16-17, 16-18, 17-19, 18-19, 19-20 and 21-22) are respectively contained.
Specifically, after the original road network is acquired, it needs to be expanded into a hierarchical regional enhanced network. Simultaneously consider: 1) the spatial/temporal correlation between nodes, 2) between nodes and regions, and 3) between regions (including the same and different levels) is extracted. And adding the area into the network as a virtual node, and updating the connecting edges between the nodes.
Use ofRepresenting a hierarchical regional structure of L layers, whereinIndicates the first layer region set (containing k together)lAn area). It is assumed that each node in the original road network is affiliated with and belongs to only one of the primary regions. Likewise, forThe area of each layer/belongs to and only belongs to one of the layer/+ 1 areas. Finally, useTo indicate that all L layers containAnd (4) a region.
Based on original network structureAnd region setA hierarchical regional enhanced network can be constructed, represented asWherein the node setsDefined as a set of raw nodesUnion with the set of area virtual nodes, namely:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing the virtual node associated with the k-th region. Use ofIndicating the number of nodes in the hierarchical regional enhanced network, then
Subsequently, an enhanced edge set is definedIn order to model the spatial/temporal correlation between nodes and regions and between different regions (including between the same and different hierarchies), the hierarchical region enhanced edge set must additionally contain node-region edges and region-region edges in addition to the original node-node edges. There are three different situations:
a) node-area membership: if node viDirect membership to an area(i.e. theIs containing node viIs in v), theniAnda node-area edge is established between the two nodes;
b) region-region membership: if regionIs directly affiliated to the areaSub-area (i.e. of)Is an inclusion regionThe smallest area) of the first and second regions areAnda region-region edge is established between the two;
c) region-region proximity relationship: if regionAnd areaBelong to the same level and have a proximity relation in the region division, thenAndbetween them, a region-region edge is established
Enhanced edge setIs the union of the original network edge set epsilon and the edges added through the steps.
After the virtual node is added, the traffic characteristic matrix is reconstructedTo be reflected in the history and current time stepRegional awareness traffic information for individual nodes. For the original node, the traffic feature vector remains unchanged. The feature vector of each newly added area virtual node is an original node directly or indirectly attached to the areaMean of feature vectors of points. That is, for the first n rows of the feature matrix, the feature values are consistent with the original feature matrix,for other rows, the eigenvalues are defined as the average of the eigenvectors of the original nodes directly or indirectly belonging to the corresponding region, i.e. the eigenvalues are the average of the eigenvectors of the original nodes directly or indirectly belonging to the corresponding region
Further as a preferred embodiment of the method, the region-aware spatial correlation model employs a multilayer graph attention network, the region-aware temporal correlation model employs a multilayer gated cyclic unit, and the step of learning spatial correlation and temporal correlation and outputting a prediction result by using a hierarchical region enhancement network and a traffic feature matrix as inputs of a prediction model specifically includes:
graph attention network enhancing network according to hierarchical regionsSpatial topology of, traffic characteristic matrix to be inputConversion into a new feature matrix Xt;
Gated cyclic unit based on new feature matrix XtCalculating a corresponding hidden state matrix Ht;
Alternately passing through a graph attention network and a gate control circulation unit and recursively learning hidden states for multiple times, and then based on a hidden state matrix H of the last steptPerforming dimension transformation via a full link layer to obtain final prediction result
Further as a preferred embodiment of the method, the graph attention network enhances the network according to hierarchical regionsSpatial topology of, traffic characteristic matrix to be inputConversion into a new feature matrix XtThis step, in particular, comprises:
for traffic characteristic matrix to be inputAt each time step, modeling the spatial dependence relationship of the inter-node, the inter-node and inter-region perception based on the attention mechanism to obtain a corresponding new feature matrix Xt。
Specifically, fig. 4 shows a schematic diagram of a graph attention network (GAT) used in the present invention, which performs an aggregation operation on neighbor nodes through an attention mechanism to implement adaptive distribution of different neighbor weights. For node v1It first applies to each neighborhood node { v }1,v2,v3,v4,v5,v6Solving attention coefficients alpha respectively11,α12,α13,α14,α15α16Then, features of neighboring nodes are aggregated according to attention coefficients to learn a new feature vector [ X }t]1,:As input to a gated loop unit (GRU). Because the input network data is enhanced based on a hierarchical regionalization structure, the GAT can be used for establishing the node weight self-adaptive distribution of the regional perception, thereby capturing the spatial correlation of the regional perception.
The graph attention network (GAT) is used for modeling complex spatial dependency relationships among nodes, between nodes and regions and between regions, and automatically capturing the importance (attention coefficient) of a node to another node, a node to a region, a region to a node and a region to another region.
Specifically, nodes are encoded using a graph attention layer to convert traffic characteristics of the nodes into higher-level feature vectorsComplex spatial correlations between nodes and regions, and between regions. The input of the graph attention layer is a traffic feature vector of each node in the hierarchical regional enhanced network, namelyWhereinThe output is a new set of feature vectors, i.e.Wherein
The specific calculation steps are as follows:
first, a self-attention mechanism is used for nodes in a networkCalculating to obtain the attention value between every two points:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,is a weight matrix for linear transformation of node features. Specifically, the self-attention mechanism used in the present invention is a single layer feedforward neural network comprising a linear transformation vectorAnd a leak relu function (parameter α ═ 0.2) as the activation function, i.e.:
wherein,.TRepresenting a transpose operation and | l representing a join operation. Using a softmax function for the neighborhood nodes to obtain a normalized attention coefficient:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,and representing the neighborhood nodes of the node i in the hierarchical regional enhanced network.
Finally, for each node, linear combination is obtained on the neighborhood node features by using the obtained normalized attention coefficient to update the node feature vector:
thus, the output feature matrix for all nodes is constructed as follows:
further as a preferred embodiment of the method, the gated loop unit is based on a new feature matrix XtCalculating a corresponding hidden state matrix HtThis step, in particular, comprises:
the gate control unit simultaneously models the time dependence relationship of region perception among nodes, between nodes and regions and between regions;
based on new feature matrix XtAnd the hidden state matrix H of the last time stept-1Obtaining the hidden state matrix H of the current time stept。
In particular, gating cell principle schematic referring to fig. 5, a time-series neural network is constructed using gated round-robin cells (GRUs) to model complex time-dependent relationships between nodes, between nodes and regions, and between regions and regions.
Assuming that the number of cells in the hidden layer is h, use is made ofRepresenting the hidden state matrix at time step t-1. For each layer of the neural network, the input at time t is givenAnd hidden state at time t-1Reset gate for gated cycle unitAnd a retrofit gateCan be calculated by the following formulas respectively:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,andin order to be a weight matrix, the weight matrix,is a bias vector. Subsequently, a candidate hidden state matrix in time step t is calculated
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,andin order to be a weight matrix, the weight matrix,is a bias vector. Reset gate RtThe candidate hidden states for controlling the current time step include the degree of hidden states of the previous time step.
Hidden state H based on previous time stept-1And current candidate hidden stateThe hidden state matrix of time step t can be updated by the update gate ZtThe weighted linear combination of the controls is calculated as:
finally, according to the hidden state matrix HtUsing the fully-connected layer to calculate the final output, i.e. the prediction of the time step tComprises the following steps:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,in order to be a weight matrix, the weight matrix,is a bias vector.
And finally, updating node characteristics and learning a hidden state based on time sequence by circularly using the GAT and the GRU, and finally, predicting the traffic flow by using a final output hidden state to obtain a prediction result.
In the model training process, useAnd representing the real result of the training sample, namely the real value of the traffic information in the future q time steps of all the nodes in the enhanced network.
Model-based predictive valueAnd true valueThe training loss function of the model is defined as follows:
where Φ represents all parameters of the model, λ is the hyper-parameter, Lreg(Φ) is a regularization term used to prevent model overfitting.
Further as a preferred embodiment of the method, the gated loop unit comprises a reset gate and an update gate, the reset gate determining a degree of forgetting information of a past time step, the update gate determining a degree of passing the information of the past time step to a next hidden state.
As shown in fig. 6, a traffic prediction system based on a spatiotemporal hierarchical network includes:
the preprocessing module is used for acquiring traffic data, preprocessing the traffic data and constructing a hierarchical regional enhanced network and a traffic characteristic matrix;
and the prediction module is used for taking the hierarchical region enhancement network and the traffic characteristic matrix as the input of the prediction model, learning the spatial correlation and the temporal correlation and outputting the prediction result.
The contents in the above method embodiments are all applicable to the present system embodiment, the functions specifically implemented by the present system embodiment are the same as those in the above method embodiment, and the beneficial effects achieved by the present system embodiment are also the same as those achieved by the above method embodiment.
While the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been illustrated and described, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and details may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (7)
1. A traffic prediction method based on a space-time hierarchical network is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring traffic data, preprocessing the traffic data, and constructing to obtain a hierarchical regional enhanced network and a traffic characteristic matrix;
taking the hierarchical regional enhancement network and the traffic characteristic matrix as the input of a prediction model, learning the spatial correlation and the temporal correlation, and outputting a prediction result;
the predictive models include a region-aware spatial correlation model and a region-aware temporal correlation model.
2. The traffic prediction method based on the spatio-temporal hierarchical network as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step of obtaining the traffic data and preprocessing the traffic data to construct the hierarchical regional enhanced network and the traffic feature matrix specifically comprises:
acquiring original traffic data;
from the original road networkAnd hierarchical region structureAdding the region as a virtual node into the network, extracting the connection relation between the node and the region and between the regions, and establishing a hierarchical regional enhanced network
3. The traffic prediction method based on the spatio-temporal hierarchical network as claimed in claim 2, wherein the region-aware spatial correlation model adopts a graph attention network, the region-aware temporal correlation model adopts a gated cyclic unit, and the step of taking the hierarchical region enhancement network and the traffic feature matrix as input of the prediction model, learning spatial correlation and temporal correlation, and outputting the prediction result specifically comprises:
graph attention network enhancing network according to hierarchical regionsSpatial topology of, traffic characteristic matrix to be inputConversion into a new feature matrix Xt;
Gated cyclic unit based on new feature matrix XtCalculating a corresponding hidden state matrix Ht;
4. The traffic prediction method based on the spatiotemporal hierarchical network as claimed in claim 3, wherein the graph attention network enhances the network according to the hierarchical regionSpatial topology of, traffic characteristic matrix to be inputConversion into a new feature matrix XtThis step, in particular, comprises:
5. The traffic prediction method based on spatio-temporal hierarchical network of claim 4, wherein the gated cyclic unit is based on a new feature matrix XtCalculating a corresponding hidden state matrix HtThis step, in particular, comprises:
the gate control unit simultaneously models the time dependence relationship of region perception among nodes, between nodes and regions and between regions;
based on new feature matrix XtAnd the hidden state matrix H of the last time stept-1Obtaining the hidden state matrix H of the current time stept。
6. The traffic prediction method based on spatio-temporal hierarchical network of claim 5, characterized in that the gated cyclic unit comprises a reset gate and an update gate, the reset gate determines the degree of forgetting the information of the past time step, and the update gate determines the degree of transferring the information of the past time step to the next hidden state.
7. A traffic prediction system based on a spatio-temporal hierarchical network, comprising:
the preprocessing module is used for acquiring traffic data, preprocessing the traffic data and constructing a hierarchical regional enhanced network and a traffic characteristic matrix;
and the prediction module is used for taking the hierarchical region enhancement network and the traffic characteristic matrix as the input of the prediction model, learning the spatial correlation and the temporal correlation and outputting the prediction result.
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