CN114243687A - 一种基于成本和效益的风电提供旋转备用服务定价方法 - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明属于风电技术领域,为一种基于成本和效益的风电提供旋转备用服务定价方法,该方法包括:用市场电价衡量旋转备用的机会成本得到旋转备用的成本电价;计算旋转备用的效益价值,根据系统各机组的强迫停运率计算出系统不同停运状态的概率,形成机组停运容量概率分布表COPT,根据机组停运容量概率分布表COPT与负荷停运表预测不确定性概率分布,形成系统缺出力的状态概率分布,据此算出系统旋转备用的期望价值;根据旋转备用的成本电价和备用效益平均价值,建立基于成本、效益及系统可靠性指标相结合的备用服务补偿定价模型。本发明综合考虑机会成本、系统失负荷价值及系统可靠性指标,对成本和价值进行补偿的同时,也反映了系统的可靠性水平。
Description
技术领域
本发明属于风电技术领域,具体地而言为一种基于成本和效益的风电提供旋转备用服务定价方法。
背景技术
电力系统中的风电比重正不断攀升,风电的接入可替代常规电源,提供电网可靠性,并取得节能减排的环保效益。风电出力具有一定的不确定性,为了保证系统的安全稳定,须为其提供足够的备用,提高了风电的消纳成本提高,导致严重的弃风限电问题,阻碍了风电产业的可持续发展。
发明内容
为了解决上述相关技术中的问题,本发明所要解决的技术问题在于提供一种基于成本和效益的风电提供旋转备用服务定价方法。
本发明是这样实现的,
一种基于成本和效益的风电提供旋转备用服务定价方法,该方法包括:
用市场电价衡量旋转备用的机会成本得到旋转备用的成本电价;
计算旋转备用的效益价值,根据系统各机组的强迫停运率计算出系统不同停运状态的概率,形成机组停运容量概率分布表COPT,根据机组停运容量概率分布表COPT与负荷停运表预测不确定性概率分布,形成系统缺出力的状态概率分布,据此算出系统旋转备用的期望价值;
根据旋转备用的成本电价和备用效益平均价值,建立基于成本、效益及系统可靠性指标相结合的备用服务补偿定价模型。
进一步地,所述机会成本:
CR=P0R
式中,CR为旋转备用机组成本;P0为k时段的市场电价;R为该时段所需的备用容量。
进一步地,用市场电价衡量旋转备用的机会成本得到旋转备用成本电价为:
式中,r%为成本利润率水平。
进一步地,根据机组停运容量概率分布表COPT与负荷停运表预测不确定性概率分布,形成系统缺出力的状态概率分布具体包括:
根据发电机组的特定参数计算得出该发电机组的停运表,设某台发电机组的运行容量为ci,强迫停运率FOR为qi;
逐步形成整个发电系统的停运表。
进一步地,所述系统缺出力的状态概率分布,据此算出系统旋转备用的期望价值包括:根据系统缺出力的状态概率分布得到系统缺出力状态向量(g1,g2,…,gi,…,gM),以及状态概率向量[p(g1),p(g2),…,p(gi),…,p(gM)];经过比较缺出力与备用容量值,得出系统缺出力水平小于R的状态向量(S1,S2,…,Si,…,SN1),及其出现的概率向量[p(S1),p(S2),…,p(Si),…,p(SN1)];系统缺出力水平大于等于R的状态向量(B1,B2,…,Bj,…,BN2),及其出现的概率向量[p(B1),p(B2),…,p(Bj),…,p(BN2)],计算出系统备用R的期望价值为:
进一步地,根据系统备用R的期望价值得到旋转备用效益的平均价值:
根据旋转备用的成本电价和备用效益平均价值,建立基于成本、效益及系统可靠性指标相结合的备用服务补偿定价模型:
PR=(1-LOLP)×PRC+LOLP×VR
式中,LOLP表示电力不足概率,即失负荷的状态概率。
本发明与现有技术相比,有益效果在于:
大规模风电接入给电力系统运行带来很大的不确定性,为维持系统的稳定,保证和扩大风能渗透率,风电提供备用变得至关重要。为调动风力发电企业参与旋转备用服务的积极性,须对其提供补偿。合理的旋转备用定价可以引导风电厂和用户合理决策,提高电网运行经济性。本发明综合考虑机会成本、系统失负荷价值及系统可靠性指标,对成本和价值进行补偿的同时,也反映了系统的可靠性水平。
具体实施方式
为了使本发明的目的、技术方案及优点更加清楚明白,以下结合实施例,对本发明进行进一步详细说明。应当理解,此处所描述的具体实施例仅仅用以解释本发明,并不用于限定本发明。
一种基于成本和效益的风电提供旋转备用服务定价方法,该方法包括:
用市场电价衡量旋转备用的机会成本得到旋转备用的成本电价;
计算旋转备用的效益价值,根据系统各机组的强迫停运率计算出系统不同停运状态的概率,形成机组停运容量概率分布表COPT,根据机组停运容量概率分布表COPT与负荷停运表预测不确定性概率分布,形成系统缺出力的状态概率分布,据此算出系统旋转备用的期望价值;
根据旋转备用的成本电价和备用效益平均价值,建立基于成本、效益及系统可靠性指标相结合的备用服务补偿定价模型。
具体地,1.供给成本分析
由于风电变动成本很小,同时机组所有的固定成本已计入容量电价中,所以机组提供旋转备用的供给成本可以用变动成本机会成本来衡量,也就是机组因为提供旋转备用而使得发电量减少,从而使其收益减少,减少的这部分收益就是机组提供旋转被用的机会成本。对电力系统的某一具体时段进行分析,并用市场电价衡量旋转备用的机会成本,如式(1)。
CR=P0R (1)
式中,CR为旋转备用机组成本;P0为k时段的市场电价;R为该时段所需的备用容量。
2.计算旋转备用的效益价值,首先需根据系统各机组(包括风电和火电)的强迫停运率计算出系统不同停运状态的概率,形成机组停运容量概率分布表COPT,然后考虑负荷预测的不确定性概率分布。根据COPT与负荷预测不确定性概率分布,可以形成系统缺出力的状态概率分布,据此算出系统备用的期望价值。
首先根据机组的特定参数计算得出该机组的停运表(COPT)。设某台发电机组的运行容量为ci,强迫停运率FOR为qi。
发电系统是由一些发电机组和负荷构成的,由发电机组停运表和负荷停运表可以形成发电系统停运表,也就是系统缺出力的状态概率分布。为便于讨论,本文假设负荷预测的不确定概率为0。另设已知元件a、b的停运表,其确切概率分别为组合元件C在停运容量为的确切概率表示为
利用以上公式可以逐步形成整个发电系统的停运表。
3.备用价值的分析
效益的评估将运用失负荷价值计算事故停运成本,也就是停电对经济造成的损失。
无备用情况下,系统出现出力缺额g的失负荷价值VOLL为
式中,g为缺出力量或失负荷量;P0为k时段的电能电价;ε为电力需求价格弹性系数(一般为0.22-0.25);Q0为k时段的电力需求。
根据系统缺出力的状态概率分布可以得到系统缺出力状态向量(g1,g2,…,gi,…,gM),以及状态概率向量[p(g1),p(g2),…,p(gi),…,p(gM)]。经过比较缺出力与备用容量值,可以得出系统缺出力水平小于R的状态向量(S1,S2,…,Si,…,SN1),及其出现的概率向量[p(S1),p(S2),…,p(Si),…,p(SN1)];系统缺出力水平大于等于R的状态向量(B1,B2,…,Bj,…,BN2),及其出现的概率向量[p(B1),p(B2),…,p(Bj),…,p(BN2)]。由此可计算出系统备用R的期望价值为:
4.价格的确定
基于式(1)确定旋转备用成本电价为:
式中,r%为成本利润率水平。
基于式(5)得到旋转备用效益的平均价值
根据旋转备用的成本电价和备用效益平均价值,可以建立基于成本、效益及系统可靠性指标相结合的备用服务补偿定价模型[9]:
PR=(1-LOLP)×PRC+LOLP×VR (8)
式中,LOLP表示电力不足概率,即失负荷的状态概率。
该模型不仅能够对发电商的旋转备用成本进行合理补偿,而且备用服务的成本和效益相结合得出的价格,比以往单方面考虑成本或价值,也能更好的体现了旋转备用服务的价值。同时,电力不足概率LOLP的引入使得该模型能够反映系统的可靠性水平及对旋转备用的需求。
以上所述仅为本发明的较佳实施例而已,并不用以限制本发明,凡在本发明的精神和原则之内所作的任何修改、等同替换和改进等,均应包含在本发明的保护范围之内。
Claims (6)
1.一种基于成本和效益的风电提供旋转备用服务定价方法,其特征在于,该方法包括:
用市场电价衡量旋转备用的机会成本得到旋转备用的成本电价;
计算旋转备用的效益价值,根据系统各机组的强迫停运率计算出系统不同停运状态的概率,形成机组停运容量概率分布表COPT,根据机组停运容量概率分布表COPT与负荷停运表预测不确定性概率分布,形成系统缺出力的状态概率分布,据此算出系统旋转备用的期望价值;
根据旋转备用的成本电价和备用效益平均价值,建立基于成本、效益及系统可靠性指标相结合的备用服务补偿定价模型。
2.按照权利要求1所述的方法,其特征在于,所述机会成本:
CR=P0R
式中,CR为旋转备用机组成本;P0为k时段的市场电价;R为该时段所需的备用容量。
4.按照权利要求1所述的方法,其特征在于,根据机组停运容量概率分布表COPT与负荷停运表预测不确定性概率分布,形成系统缺出力的状态概率分布具体包括:
根据发电机组的特定参数计算得出该发电机组的停运表,设某台发电机组的运行容量为ci,强迫停运率FOR为qi;
逐步形成整个发电系统的停运表。
5.按照权利要求3所述的方法,其特征在于,所述系统缺出力的状态概率分布,据此算出系统旋转备用的期望价值包括:根据系统缺出力的状态概率分布得到系统缺出力状态向量(g1,g2,…,gi,…,gM),以及状态概率向量[p(g1),p(g2),…,p(gi),…,p(gM)];经过比较缺出力与备用容量值,得出系统缺出力水平小于R的状态向量(S1,S2,…,Si,…,SN1),及其出现的概率向量[p(S1),p(S2),…,p(Si),…,p(SN1)];系统缺出力水平大于等于R的状态向量(B1,B2,…,Bj,…,BN2),及其出现的概率向量[p(B1),p(B2),…,p(Bj),…,p(BN2)],计算出系统备用R的期望价值为:
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