CN114240111A - Power system risk operation assessment method and device and computer equipment - Google Patents

Power system risk operation assessment method and device and computer equipment Download PDF

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CN114240111A
CN114240111A CN202111485496.2A CN202111485496A CN114240111A CN 114240111 A CN114240111 A CN 114240111A CN 202111485496 A CN202111485496 A CN 202111485496A CN 114240111 A CN114240111 A CN 114240111A
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田世东
王万斌
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Enshi Power Supply Co of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co Ltd
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Enshi Power Supply Co of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co Ltd
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    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

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Abstract

The application discloses a method, a device and computer equipment for evaluating risk operation of an electric power system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining the working state of each node in the power system; determining influence factors when the power system is determined to be in an accident state according to the working state of each node; the influencing factors comprise load level, tidal current variation, node voltage, power loss and power distribution; and screening out key influence factors from the influence factors according to the risk operation probability occupied by each influence factor, and performing risk operation evaluation analysis according to the key influence factors. The implementation of the method can improve the evaluation accuracy.

Description

Power system risk operation assessment method and device and computer equipment
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power system management, in particular to a method and a device for evaluating risk operation of a power system and computer equipment.
Background
The power grid is mainly composed of substations and various voltage lines, takes voltage conversion transmission and electric energy distribution as main functions, and is an important infrastructure for coordinating power development, distribution, transmission and consumption. The power grid is part of an electrical power system, which is a system of transmission, transformation and distribution lines connecting various power plants, substations and consumers. At present, with the development of economy, the power system is also in the process of continuous development, and effective risk operation assessment on the power system is extremely important. At present, operation and maintenance personnel mainly judge according to an operation process and by combining with own technical experience. However, the above method is difficult to adapt to a complicated power system with high reliability requirements, and has a problem of low evaluation accuracy.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem that the existing technical scheme is low in evaluation accuracy, and provides a method, a device and computer equipment for evaluating the risk operation of a power system.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems is as follows: a risk operation assessment method of a power system is constructed, and the method comprises the following steps:
determining the working state of each node in the power system;
determining influence factors when the power system is determined to be in an accident state according to the working state of each node; the influencing factors comprise load level, tidal current variation, node voltage, power loss and power distribution;
and screening out key influence factors from the influence factors according to the risk operation probability occupied by each influence factor, and performing risk operation evaluation analysis according to the key influence factors.
The application discloses electric power system risk operation evaluation device, the device includes first definite module, second definite module and risk evaluation module, wherein:
the first determining module is used for determining the working state of each node in the power system;
the second determining module is used for determining the influence factors when the power system is determined to be in the accident state according to the working state of each node; the influencing factors comprise load level, tidal current variation, node voltage, power loss and power distribution;
and the risk evaluation module is used for screening out key influence factors from the influence factors according to the risk operation probability occupied by each influence factor and carrying out risk operation evaluation analysis according to the key influence factors.
The application discloses a computer device, including memory and treater, the memory stores computer program, the treater realizes the following step when executing the computer program:
determining the working state of each node in the power system;
determining influence factors when the power system is determined to be in an accident state according to the working state of each node; the influencing factors comprise load level, tidal current variation, node voltage, power loss and power distribution;
and screening out key influence factors from the influence factors according to the risk operation probability occupied by each influence factor, and performing risk operation evaluation analysis according to the key influence factors.
A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, performs the steps of:
determining the working state of each node in the power system;
determining influence factors when the power system is determined to be in an accident state according to the working state of each node; the influencing factors comprise load level, tidal current variation, node voltage, power loss and power distribution;
and screening out key influence factors from the influence factors according to the risk operation probability occupied by each influence factor, and performing risk operation evaluation analysis according to the key influence factors.
By implementing the method, the device, the computer equipment and the storage medium for evaluating the risk operation of the power system, whether the power system is in the accident state or not is judged based on the working state of each node in the power system, and the identification accuracy rate of the accident state is improved by combining the actual working state of the power system. Risk operation evaluation analysis is carried out based on the risk operation probability occupied by the influence factors in the accident state, and operation and maintenance personnel can conveniently carry out system maintenance by adopting corresponding measures according to the reliability operation state of the power system by carrying out timely analysis on the operation reliability of the whole system so as to avoid influencing the normal operation of the power system.
Drawings
The invention will be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples, in which:
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for assessing risk of operation of an electrical power system in one embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a system configuration diagram of an electric power system risk operation evaluation device in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The principles and features of this invention are described below in conjunction with the following drawings, which are set forth by way of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
In one or more embodiments of the present invention, as shown in fig. 1, a method for evaluating risk operation of a power system is provided, which is described by taking the method as an example for being applied to a power system, and includes the following steps:
in step S1, the operating states of the nodes in the power system are determined.
Specifically, the element arranged at each node comprises at least one of a transmission line, a transformer, a generator set and a bus; the working state of each node comprises at least one of a branch overload state determined when the branch load value is greater than a preset maximum load threshold value, a load loss serious state determined when the degree value of the branch loss load quantity far away from the preset loss early warning value is greater than a preset degree threshold value, and a branch line failure state determined according to the correlation execution reliability among the elements.
It should be noted that:
(1) since each electrical device has a rated power, the overload state also refers to a state in which the system is in response to the actual operating power of the device being higher than its rated power. That is, the power system may also determine whether the system is in a branch overload condition based on the difference between the actual operating power and its rated power. Of course, since both overcurrent and overload are a condition, in which the overcurrent is an operating condition of the electric device when the motor or other electrical components is higher than the rated current, in one embodiment, the power system can also determine whether the system is in an overload operating condition based on the overcurrent operating condition, wherein it should be noted that if the system is in the overload operating condition for a long time, the temperature rise of its winding exceeds the allowable value, so that the insulation of the winding is aged or damaged.
(2) It should be noted that, during the transmission and distribution of electric energy from a power plant to a user, a certain amount of loss, i.e., line loss, inevitably occurs. The electric energy corresponding to the loss is called line loss load, and is mainly related to factors such as the voltage level of the transmission line, the materials used by the transmission line, the altitude, the climate difference, and the like. In one embodiment, the power system may determine the load amount of the branch circuit loss based on the fault probability of each element in the system evaluated in real time, and when it is determined that the power system is in an abnormal operation state, the fault probability is combined with a dynamic power flow, where the dynamic power flow refers to the current, the voltage, and the like generated in the case of an abnormal condition of the power system (including short circuit, tie line trip, load shedding, and the like).
(3) The determining of the branch line failure state according to the correlation execution reliability between the elements specifically means that, according to the control function to be implemented between the correlation elements, whether the branch line fails is determined based on the implementation degree of the control function, for example, when it is determined that the control function cannot be implemented, it may be determined that the corresponding branch line fails, and when it is determined that the implementation degree of the control function is within a preset interval range, for example, within a range of 70% to 100% (it should be noted that, here, it may be determined that some external interference factors, such as weather, human factors, etc., cause that the control function cannot be implemented 100%), it may be determined that the corresponding branch line does not fail.
Step S2, according to the working state of each node, determining the influence factors when the power system is determined to be in the accident state; the influencing factors include load level, tidal current variation, node voltage, power loss, and power distribution.
Specifically, the accident state comprises a bus voltage out-of-limit state determined when the load level is determined to exceed a preset level, which results in the bus voltage being higher than a preset voltage threshold value, according to the load level; the accident state also comprises a tide out-of-range state determined when the power unbalance is determined and the actual tide of the section is greater than the tide limit according to the node voltage, the power loss and the power distribution; the accident state further comprises a trend convergence state determined when the trend variable approaches a preset convergence value according to the trend variable.
The bus voltage out-of-limit means that the bus voltage is too high or too low and exceeds a specified limit, and of course, the bus voltage can be understood to exceed or be lower than a specified value, and these several implementation cases can all be considered that the current system is in the bus voltage out-of-limit state. The bus voltage can be determined based on a direct measurement mode or a system load flow calculation mode, and the obtaining mode of the bus voltage is not limited in the embodiment of the application. Of course, in the present embodiment, it is also possible to determine whether there is a case where the bus voltage is out of limit based on the amount of change in the bus voltage caused by the power fluctuation correspondence.
In addition, for the judgment of the power flow out-of-range, whether the operation of the power system is reasonable or not can be further checked. Specifically, the method determines the operation state of the system under a given operation condition, for example, under the conditions of given voltage (amplitude and phase angle) on each bus, power distribution and power loss in the system, and based on the judgment of power unbalance and section actual power flow, whether the system is in a normal operation state is determined.
And step S3, screening out key influence factors from the influence factors according to the risk operation probability respectively occupied by each influence factor, and performing risk operation evaluation analysis according to the key influence factors.
Specifically, the power system calculates the risk operation probability by calculating the proportion of the accumulated frequency in the total system fault generation frequency according to the accumulated frequency of the power system in the fault operation state caused by the influence factors within the preset historical time, and then further evaluates the risk operation state of the system by a weighting calculation mode based on the determined key influence factors.
According to the electric power system risk operation assessment method, whether the electric power system is in the accident state or not is judged based on the working state of each node in the electric power system, and the identification accuracy rate of the accident state is improved by combining the actual working state of the electric power system. Risk operation evaluation analysis is carried out based on the risk operation probability occupied by the influence factors in the accident state, and operation and maintenance personnel can conveniently carry out system maintenance by adopting corresponding measures according to the reliability operation state of the power system by carrying out timely analysis on the operation reliability of the whole system so as to avoid influencing the normal operation of the power system.
In one or more embodiments of the present invention, the screening of the key influencing factors from the influencing factors according to the risk operation probabilities occupied by the influencing factors includes: calculating the risk operation probability for each influence factor based on the ratio of the historical accumulated failure generation times of the corresponding influence factors to the total system failure generation times; and screening a plurality of key influence factors of which the risk operation probability values are larger than a preset probability threshold value from the influence factors according to the value of the obtained risk operation probability.
In one or more embodiments of the present invention, the risk performance assessment analysis is performed according to the key influencing factors, further comprising: acquiring the weight proportion occupied by each key influence factor, and multiplying each key influence factor and the corresponding weight proportion; and performing weighted summation and average calculation on each product result obtained by calculation, and performing risk operation evaluation analysis based on the obtained value, wherein the evaluation result obtained by analysis comprises a first evaluation result representing that the system is in a reliable operation state when the value is determined to be smaller than or equal to a preset first value threshold a, a second evaluation result representing that the system is in a risk operation state when the value is determined to be larger than a and smaller than or equal to a preset second value threshold b, and a third evaluation result representing that the system is in a high-risk operation state when the value is determined to be larger than b.
In one embodiment, the obtained evaluation result is further fed back to the user terminal, the user terminal displays the evaluation result based on a preset display screen, and in the display process, the user terminal can also sequentially display the results obtained by the corresponding evaluation in each time period based on the generated time sequence. Of course, not only the evaluation result can be fed back to the user terminal, but also the results of each key influence factor influencing the operation of the system can be fed back to the user terminal, and the results are directly displayed by the user terminal, or before the display, the key influence factors are subjected to aggregation analysis, so as to determine which target key influence factor has the largest influence degree on the risk operation of the power system.
It should be noted that the parameters a, b, and c may be dynamically set based on past value experience and actual characteristics and operating conditions of the power system, for example, the value of a may be 60, the value of b may be 200, and the value of c may be 500. Therefore, the values of the parameters are not limited in the embodiments of the present application. When the evaluation result is displayed through the user terminal, the corresponding evaluation result can also be projected into the three risk grade spaces, wherein different risk grades adopt different font display colors, and a third evaluation result representing that the system is in a high-risk running state can be displayed by a red font; for a second evaluation result representing that the system is in the risk operation state, the second evaluation result can be displayed in an orange font; for the first evaluation result, which characterizes the system in a reliable operation state, it can be displayed in a "white" font.
In the embodiment, the evaluation result and the influence obtained by analysis are displayed in real time, so that a user can timely find the running state of the power system, and when the system is determined to be in a risk running state, fault troubleshooting can be performed on the basis of the target key influence factors obtained by aggregation analysis, and the working efficiency of the user is improved.
Referring to fig. 2, the present application discloses an evaluation apparatus for risk operation of an electrical power system, the apparatus includes a first determination module, a second determination module, and a risk evaluation module, wherein:
the first determining module is used for determining the working state of each node in the power system.
The second determining module is used for determining the influence factors when the power system is determined to be in the accident state according to the working state of each node; the influencing factors include load level, tidal current variation, node voltage, power loss, and power distribution.
And the risk evaluation module is used for screening out key influence factors from the influence factors according to the risk operation probability respectively occupied by each influence factor and carrying out risk operation evaluation analysis according to the key influence factors.
According to the electric power system risk operation evaluation device, whether the electric power system is in the accident state or not is judged based on the working state of each node in the electric power system, and the identification accuracy rate of the accident state is improved by combining the actual working state of the electric power system. Risk operation evaluation analysis is carried out based on the risk operation probability occupied by the influence factors in the accident state, and operation and maintenance personnel can conveniently carry out system maintenance by adopting corresponding measures according to the reliability operation state of the power system by carrying out timely analysis on the operation reliability of the whole system so as to avoid influencing the normal operation of the power system.
In one embodiment, the element provided at each node comprises at least one of a transmission line, a transformer, a generator set and a bus; the working state of each node comprises at least one of a branch overload state determined when the branch load value is greater than a preset maximum load threshold value, a load loss serious state determined when the degree value of the branch loss load quantity far away from the preset loss early warning value is greater than a preset degree threshold value, and a branch line failure state determined according to the correlation execution reliability among the elements.
In one embodiment, the accident condition includes a bus voltage out-of-limit condition determined upon determining that the load level exceeds a preset level, resulting in a bus voltage above a preset voltage threshold, based on the load level; the accident state also comprises a tide out-of-range state determined when the power unbalance is determined and the actual tide of the section is greater than the tide limit according to the node voltage, the power loss and the power distribution; the accident state further comprises a trend convergence state determined when the trend variable approaches a preset convergence value according to the trend variable.
In one embodiment, the risk assessment module is further configured to calculate, for each influence factor, a risk operation probability based on a ratio between the historical cumulative failure generation times of the corresponding influence factor and the total system failure generation times; and screening a plurality of key influence factors of which the risk operation probability values are larger than a preset probability threshold value from the influence factors according to the value of the obtained risk operation probability. In one embodiment, the risk assessment module is further configured to determine an out-of-limit bus voltage state based on the load level when the load level exceeds a predetermined level, resulting in a bus voltage above a predetermined voltage threshold; the accident state also comprises a tide out-of-range state determined when the power unbalance is determined and the actual tide of the section is greater than the tide limit according to the node voltage, the power loss and the power distribution; the accident state further comprises a trend convergence state determined when the trend variable approaches a preset convergence value according to the trend variable.
In one or more embodiments of the present invention, there is also provided a computer device, including a memory and a processor, where the memory stores a computer program, and the processor implements the steps of the above method embodiments when executing the computer program.
The computer equipment judges whether the power system is in the accident state or not based on the working state of each node in the power system, and improves the identification accuracy of the accident state by combining the actual working state of the power system. Risk operation evaluation analysis is carried out based on the risk operation probability occupied by the influence factors in the accident state, and operation and maintenance personnel can conveniently carry out system maintenance by adopting corresponding measures according to the reliability operation state of the power system by carrying out timely analysis on the operation reliability of the whole system so as to avoid influencing the normal operation of the power system.
In one or more embodiments of the invention, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, on which a computer program is stored, which computer program, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the above-mentioned method embodiments.
The storage medium judges whether the power system is in the accident state or not based on the working state of each node in the power system, and improves the identification accuracy of the accident state by combining the actual working state of the power system. Risk operation evaluation analysis is carried out based on the risk operation probability occupied by the influence factors in the accident state, and operation and maintenance personnel can conveniently carry out system maintenance by adopting corresponding measures according to the reliability operation state of the power system by carrying out timely analysis on the operation reliability of the whole system so as to avoid influencing the normal operation of the power system.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like that fall within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included therein.

Claims (10)

1. A method for assessing risk operation of a power system, the method comprising:
determining the working state of each node in the power system;
determining influence factors when the power system is determined to be in an accident state according to the working state of each node; the influencing factors comprise load level, tidal current variation, node voltage, power loss and power distribution;
and screening out key influence factors from the influence factors according to the risk operation probability occupied by each influence factor, and performing risk operation evaluation analysis according to the key influence factors.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the components provided at each node include at least one of a power transmission line, a transformer, a generator set, and a bus bar;
the working state of each node comprises at least one of a branch overload state determined when the branch load value is greater than a preset maximum load threshold value, a load loss serious state determined when the degree value of the branch loss load quantity far away from the preset loss early warning value is greater than a preset degree threshold value, and a branch line failure state determined according to the correlation execution reliability among the elements.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the fault condition comprises a determined bus voltage out-of-limit condition when the load level is determined to exceed a preset level resulting in a bus voltage above a preset voltage threshold, based on the load level;
the accident state also comprises a tide out-of-range state determined when the power is determined to be unbalanced and the actual tide of the section is greater than the tide limit according to the node voltage, the power loss and the power distribution;
and the accident state also comprises a trend convergence state determined when the trend variable approaches a preset convergence value according to the trend variable.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein the screening out key influencing factors from the influencing factors according to the risk operation probabilities occupied by the influencing factors respectively comprises:
calculating the risk operation probability for each influence factor based on the ratio of the historical accumulated failure generation times of the corresponding influence factors to the total system failure generation times;
and screening a plurality of key influence factors of which the risk operation probability values are larger than a preset probability threshold value from the influence factors according to the value of the obtained risk operation probability.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein performing a risk operational assessment analysis based on the key contributors, further comprises:
acquiring the weight proportion occupied by each key influence factor, and multiplying each key influence factor and the corresponding weight proportion;
and carrying out weighted summation and averaging calculation on each product result obtained by calculation, and carrying out risk operation evaluation analysis based on the obtained value, wherein the evaluation result obtained by analysis comprises a first evaluation result representing that the system is in a reliable operation state when the value is determined to be smaller than or equal to a preset first value threshold a, a second evaluation result representing that the system is in a risk operation state when the value is determined to be larger than a and smaller than or equal to a preset second value threshold b, and a third evaluation result representing that the system is in a high-risk operation state when the value is determined to be larger than b.
6. An apparatus for assessing risk of operation of an electrical power system, the apparatus comprising a first determining module, a second determining module, and a risk assessment module, wherein:
the first determining module is used for determining the working state of each node in the power system;
the second determining module is used for determining the influence factors when the power system is determined to be in the accident state according to the working state of each node; the influencing factors comprise load level, tidal current variation, node voltage, power loss and power distribution;
and the risk evaluation module is used for screening out key influence factors from the influence factors according to the risk operation probability occupied by each influence factor and carrying out risk operation evaluation analysis according to the key influence factors.
7. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein the component disposed at each node comprises at least one of a power transmission line, a transformer, a generator set, and a bus bar; the working state of each node comprises at least one of a branch overload state determined when the branch load value is greater than a preset maximum load threshold value, a load loss serious state determined when the degree value of the branch loss load quantity far away from the preset loss early warning value is greater than a preset degree threshold value, and a branch line failure state determined according to the correlation execution reliability among the elements.
8. The apparatus of claim 6, wherein the fault condition comprises a bus voltage out-of-limit condition determined upon determining that a load level exceeds a preset level, resulting in a bus voltage above a preset voltage threshold, based on the load level; the accident state also comprises a tide out-of-range state determined when the power is determined to be unbalanced and the actual tide of the section is greater than the tide limit according to the node voltage, the power loss and the power distribution; and the accident state also comprises a trend convergence state determined when the trend variable approaches a preset convergence value according to the trend variable.
9. A computer device comprising a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program, characterized in that the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the steps of the method of any of claims 1 to 5.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when being executed by a processor, carries out the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 5.
CN202111485496.2A 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 Power system risk operation assessment method and device and computer equipment Pending CN114240111A (en)

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Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
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