CN114240006A - Water resource bearing capacity assessment method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the field of water resource bearing capacity evaluation, in particular to a water resource bearing capacity evaluation method. Acquiring an index value corresponding to the target index; inputting the index value into an index bearing capacity function relation to obtain a function value output by the index bearing capacity function relation, wherein the function value corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated; and obtaining an evaluation result according to the function value, wherein the evaluation result corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated is used for reflecting the to-be-developed utilization amount of the water resource to be evaluated. According to the invention, the corresponding water resource bearing capacity is obtained by inputting the index value of the target index into the index bearing capacity functional relation. Because the water resource bearing capacity of the method is calculated through the functional relation, the accuracy of the water resource bearing capacity obtained by the method can be improved. And further, the water resource bearing capacity obtained by the invention can better provide technical support for developing water resources.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of water resource bearing capacity evaluation, in particular to a water resource bearing capacity evaluation method.
Background
With the social development and climate influence, the problem of water resource shortage is becoming more serious. Meanwhile, most people lack the protection consciousness or the consciousness is weak for water resources, so that the water environment is gradually worsened due to unreasonable development and utilization of the water resources, and the problem of water resource shortage is aggravated. The water resource bearing capacity reflects the maximum supporting capacity of water resources in a certain area for the social and economic development of the area through reasonable optimization and configuration under a certain specific historical development stage. Therefore, in order to solve the water resource condition and find out potential problems, it is necessary to develop water resource bearing capacity evaluation research, evaluate whether the water resource usage exceeds the bearing capacity range, and search for main influencing factors thereof, so that an optimization strategy can be provided in a targeted manner, technical support is provided for later-stage water environment condition guarantee and improvement, and the method has very important practical significance in building a healthy sustainable development type society.
The existing evaluation of the bearing capacity of the water resource is mostly based on fuzzy comparison of the current index value and the historical index value, the bearing capacity of the water resource is obtained according to the result of the fuzzy comparison, and the accuracy of the finally obtained bearing capacity of the water resource is low due to the lack of quantitative analysis of the index value.
In summary, the accuracy of the bearing capacity of the water resource obtained based on the existing evaluation method is low.
Thus, there is a need for improvements and enhancements in the art.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides a water resource bearing capacity assessment method, and solves the problem that the accuracy of the water resource bearing capacity obtained based on the existing assessment method is low.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
in a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for evaluating water resource bearing capacity, including:
acquiring an index value corresponding to a target index, wherein the target index is used for representing the use condition of a water resource to be evaluated and information corresponding to a user of the water resource to be evaluated;
inputting the index value into an index bearing capacity function relation to obtain a function value output by the index bearing capacity function relation, wherein the function value corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the index bearing capacity function relation is composed of the target index and parameters corresponding to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated;
and obtaining an evaluation result corresponding to the function value according to the function value, wherein the evaluation result is used for reflecting the to-be-developed utilization amount of the water resource to be evaluated.
In one implementation manner, obtaining an evaluation result according to the function value, where the evaluation result corresponds to a bearing capacity of a water resource to be evaluated, and the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated is used to reflect a to-be-developed utilization amount of the water resource to be evaluated, the method further includes:
obtaining a sample to be screened, wherein the sample to be screened is composed of indexes to be screened corresponding to the target indexes;
obtaining an index reference value corresponding to the index to be screened according to the time to be evaluated corresponding to the water resource to be evaluated;
calculating the absolute difference value between the index value corresponding to each index to be screened in the sample to be screened and the corresponding index reference value;
obtaining the maximum value and the minimum value in the absolute difference values according to the absolute difference values;
screening the sample to be screened according to the maximum value, the minimum value and the absolute difference value between the index value corresponding to each index to be screened and the corresponding index reference value to obtain the screened sample;
according to the screened sample, obtaining a water resource bearing capacity sample value corresponding to the screened sample;
and obtaining the index bearing capacity function relation by a function fitting mode according to the water resource bearing capacity sample value and the screened sample.
In one implementation manner, the screening a sample to be screened according to the maximum value, the minimum value, and an absolute difference between an index value corresponding to each index to be screened and the corresponding index reference value, to obtain a sample after screening, includes:
multiplying the maximum value by a set constant to obtain a product result;
adding the minimum value and the product result to obtain a first addition result;
adding the absolute difference value corresponding to each index to be screened with the product result to obtain a second addition result;
dividing the first addition result by the second addition result to obtain a comparison result corresponding to each index to be screened;
and screening the sample to be screened according to the comparison result corresponding to each index to be screened in the sample to be screened to obtain the screened sample.
In one implementation manner, the screening the sample to be screened according to the comparison result corresponding to each index to be screened in the sample to be screened to obtain a sample after screening, includes:
adding the comparison results corresponding to each index to be screened in the sample to be screened to obtain a total addition result;
dividing the total addition result by the total number of indexes corresponding to the indexes to be screened to obtain a final comparison result corresponding to each sample to be screened;
and screening each sample to be screened according to the corresponding comparison final result of each sample to be screened to obtain the screened sample.
In an implementation manner, the obtaining the index bearing capacity functional relation by a function fitting manner according to the water resource bearing capacity sample value and the filtered sample includes:
preliminarily selecting the indexes to be screened in the screened sample to obtain selected indexes;
substituting the index value corresponding to the selected index into a set calculation model to obtain an output result of the set calculation model, wherein the output result is used for reflecting the water resource bearing capacity, and the set calculation model is used for reflecting the one-to-one correspondence relationship between the index value and the water resource bearing capacity;
comparing the output result with the water resource bearing capacity sample value to obtain the coincidence degree between the output result and the water resource bearing capacity sample value;
screening the indexes to be screened according to the matching degree to obtain the target indexes;
and obtaining an index bearing capacity function relation formula in a function fitting mode according to the index sample value corresponding to the target index and the water resource bearing capacity sample value corresponding to the index sample value.
In one implementation, the obtaining the index bearing capacity functional relation by a function fitting method according to the index sample value corresponding to the target index and the water resource bearing capacity sample value corresponding to the index sample value includes:
establishing a nonlinear function formula between the target index and the bearing capacity of the water resource;
substituting the index sample value into the nonlinear function expression to obtain an output value of the nonlinear function expression;
and adjusting the parameter value in the nonlinear function expression according to the output value and the water resource bearing capacity sample value to obtain an index bearing capacity function relation expression.
In one implementation, the indexes to be screened include farmland irrigation rate, water resource development utilization rate, annual average water resource amount, population density.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a water resource bearing capacity assessment apparatus, where the apparatus includes the following components:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring an index value corresponding to a target index, and the target index is used for representing the service condition of the water resource to be evaluated and information corresponding to a user of the water resource to be evaluated;
the calculation module is used for inputting the index value into an index bearing capacity functional relation to obtain a function value output by the index bearing capacity functional relation, the function value corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the index bearing capacity functional relation is composed of the target index and parameters corresponding to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated;
and the evaluation module is used for obtaining an evaluation result corresponding to the function value according to the function value, and the evaluation result is used for reflecting the to-be-developed utilization amount of the water resource to be evaluated.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a terminal device, where the terminal device includes a memory, a processor, and a water resource capacity assessment program that is stored in the memory and is executable on the processor, and when the processor executes the water resource capacity assessment program, the step of the water resource capacity assessment method is implemented.
In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium, where a water resource capacity evaluation program is stored on the computer-readable storage medium, and when the water resource capacity evaluation program is executed by a processor, the steps of the water resource capacity evaluation method are implemented.
Has the advantages that: the invention obtains the corresponding water resource bearing capacity (function value output by the function relation) by inputting the index value of the target index into the index bearing capacity function relation. Because the water resource bearing capacity of the method is calculated through the functional relation, the accuracy of the water resource bearing capacity obtained by the method can be improved. And further, the water resource bearing capacity obtained by the invention can better provide technical support for developing water resources.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is an overall flow chart of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of modeling of system dynamics in an embodiment;
FIG. 3 is a water user structure diagram in the embodiment;
FIG. 4 is a sample selection complexity diagram in an embodiment;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of the complexity of selecting a target index;
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram showing the comparison between the water resource capacity of the present invention and the water resource capacity of the prior art;
fig. 7 is a schematic block diagram of an internal structure of a terminal device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical scheme of the invention is clearly and completely described below by combining the embodiment and the attached drawings of the specification. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Research shows that the problem of water resource shortage is increasingly serious along with social development and climate influence. Meanwhile, most people lack the protection consciousness or the consciousness is weak for water resources, so that the water environment is gradually worsened due to unreasonable development and utilization of the water resources, and the problem of water resource shortage is aggravated. The water resource bearing capacity reflects the maximum supporting capacity of water resources in a certain area for the social and economic development of the area through reasonable optimization and configuration under a certain specific historical development stage. Therefore, in order to solve the water resource condition and find out potential problems, it is necessary to develop water resource bearing capacity evaluation research, evaluate whether the water resource usage exceeds the bearing capacity range, and search for main influencing factors thereof, so that an optimization strategy can be provided in a targeted manner, technical support is provided for later-stage water environment condition guarantee and improvement, and the method has very important practical significance in building a healthy sustainable development type society. The existing evaluation of the bearing capacity of the water resource is mostly based on fuzzy comparison of the current index value and the historical index value, the bearing capacity of the water resource is obtained according to the result of the fuzzy comparison, and the accuracy of the finally obtained bearing capacity of the water resource is low due to the lack of quantitative analysis of the index value.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides a water resource bearing capacity assessment method, and solves the problem that the accuracy of the water resource bearing capacity obtained based on the existing assessment method is low. In specific implementation, the index value corresponding to the target index is input into the index bearing capacity functional relation, and the index bearing capacity functional relation outputs the corresponding water resource bearing capacity. The bearing capacity of the water resource obtained by the invention is higher in accuracy.
For example, when the water resource capacity of the location a needs to be evaluated, the index values corresponding to the target index in the location a are collected, for example, the target index includes an index a1 (the corresponding index value is a 11), an index a2 (the corresponding index value is a 22), and an index a3 (the corresponding index value is a 33), and a11, a22, and a33 are substituted as independent variables into the index capacity functional relation formula established in advance, so as to obtain the water resource capacity (function value) output by the index capacity functional relation formula as a dependent variable. And judging the future exploitable amount of the water resource in the A place according to the bearing capacity of the water resource.
Exemplary method
The method for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water resource can be applied to terminal equipment, and the terminal equipment can be a terminal product with a computing function, such as a computer. In this embodiment, as shown in fig. 1, the method for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water resource specifically includes the following steps:
and S100, establishing an index bearing capacity function relation.
The index bearing capacity functional relation is a functional relation with the index as an independent variable and the water resource bearing capacity as a dependent variable. Namely, the index value is input into the index bearing capacity functional relation, and the index bearing capacity functional relation outputs the corresponding water resource bearing capacity. Step S100 includes the steps of:
s101, obtaining a sample to be screened, wherein the sample to be screened is composed of the index to be screened corresponding to the target index.
The indexes to be screened in this embodiment include indexes shown in table 1.
TABLE 1
| Index code | Evaluation index | Code | Evaluation index |
| X1 | Irrigation rate of cultivated land | X9 | Water for ecological environment |
| X2 | Water resource exploitation and utilization rate | X10 | Water resource per year |
| X3 | Agricultural water resource utilization rate | X11 | GDP for the average of all the people |
| X4 | Degree of surface water resource development | X12 | Population density |
| X5 | Degree of groundwater resource exploitation | X13 | COD discharge per capita |
| X6 | Coefficient of water utilization in canal | X14 | Per capita ammonia nitrogen discharge |
| X7 | Irrigation water quantity of area | X15 | Waste water treatment rate |
| X8 | Water consumption for ten thousand yuan agricultural output value | - | - |
The index to be screened in the embodiment is obtained by the following data collected by the sensor:
the method comprises the steps that real-time weather (wind speed, wind direction, humidity, air temperature, air pressure and radiation), hydrology (such as precipitation, evaporation capacity, water level, tide level, underground water level, gate level, pump state, pipeline flow and open channel flow), water quality (such as TN, TP and NH3-N, COD) and other digital information are obtained through sensors (including weather sensors, hydrological sensors, water quality sensors and the like), the DTU is in butt joint through an RS485 interface protocol and is transmitted to a ground node station, and the node station transmits the information back to a server through 5G.
After receiving the data acquired in real time, the server performs fusion calculation on the data to obtain the index to be screened in the embodiment.
For example, the indexes to be screened comprise farmland irrigation rate, agricultural water resource utilization rate and population density, if the water resource bearing capacity of the A land in 4 months needs to be evaluated, the farmland irrigation rate of the A land in 1 month, the agricultural water resource utilization rate and the population density are collected, and the farmland irrigation rate, the agricultural water resource utilization rate and the population density of the A land in 2 months and 3 months are collected. And the farmland irrigation rates, the agricultural water resource utilization rate and the population density of the land in 1 month, 2 months and 3 months of the A field form a sample to be screened.
S102, obtaining an index reference value corresponding to the index to be screened according to the time to be evaluated corresponding to the water resource to be evaluated.
For example, if the water resource bearing capacity in month 4 of the a-th month needs to be evaluated, the index value corresponding to the arable land irrigation rate in month 3 of the step S101, the index value corresponding to the agricultural water resource utilization rate, and the index value corresponding to the population density may be used as the index reference values, that is, the index values of the indexes closest to the time to be evaluated are used as the index reference values, so as to improve the accuracy of the final water resource bearing capacity evaluation result.
The index reference value of each index constitutes a reference sequence
：
S103, calculating the absolute difference value between the index value corresponding to each index to be screened in the sample to be screened and the corresponding index reference value.
In this embodiment, each sample to be screened constitutes a sample sequence to be screened
：
Each column of the matrix in the formula (2) represents a sample to be screened, and each sample to be screened comprises index values corresponding to m indexes to be screened respectively.
To pair
And
respectively carrying out standardization treatment to obtain
And
。
and S104, obtaining the maximum value and the minimum value in the absolute difference values according to the absolute difference values.
And S105, multiplying the maximum value by a set constant to obtain a product result.
And S106, adding the minimum value and the product result to obtain a first addition result.
And S107, adding the absolute difference value corresponding to each index to be screened with the product result to obtain a second addition result.
And S108, dividing the first addition result by the second addition result to obtain a comparison result corresponding to each index to be screened.
Step S103-step S108 is to calculate a sample to be screened based on formula (3)
One of the indexes to be screened t in the plurality of indexes to be screened and the reference sequence
Result of comparison of (1)
：
For example, the specific implementation process of step S103 to step S108 is as follows:
sample to be screened
There are three criteria to be screened: an index value S1 corresponding to the cultivated land irrigation rate, an index value S2 corresponding to the agricultural water resource utilization rate and an index value S3 corresponding to the population density. Reference sequence
The three indexes to be screened are also included, and the index reference value s1, the index reference value s2 and the index reference value s3 respectively correspond to the three indexes to be screened. Calculating the absolute difference of S1 and S1, the absolute difference of S2 and S2, and the absolute difference of S3 and S3,
is the minimum of the three absolute difference values,
is the maximum of the three absolute differences. When t is the irrigation rate of the cultivated land,
is the absolute difference between S1 and S1.
And S109, adding the comparison results corresponding to each index to be screened in the sample to be screened to obtain a total addition result.
And S1010, dividing the total addition result by the total number of indexes corresponding to the indexes to be screened to obtain a final comparison result corresponding to each sample to be screened.
In this embodiment, the formula (4) is used to calculate the sequence of the sample to be screened
Each sample to be screened of (a) and a reference sequence
The present embodiment can also calculate the degree of correlation between the sample to be screened and the reference sequence by using the variance between the two in addition to the formula (4).
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is as follows
Sample to be screened and reference sequence
The degree of correlation between (i.e., the final result of comparison), m is the second
The total number of indexes to be screened in the samples to be screened, each sample to be screened and the reference sequence
The total number of indexes to be screened is m.
And S1011, screening each sample to be screened according to the corresponding final comparison result of each sample to be screened to obtain the screened sample.
And S1012, obtaining a water resource bearing capacity sample value corresponding to the screened sample according to the screened sample.
For example, there are 10 samples to be screened, 7 of which correspond to
If the value is larger than the set value, the 7 samples are the samples after screening. Since the 7 samples are historical data, the water resource bearing capacity sample value generated under the action of the index to be screened in the 7 samples can be counted.
And S1013, performing primary selection on the indexes to be screened in the screened samples by using a principal component analysis method to obtain the selected indexes.
And S1014, substituting the index value corresponding to the selected index into a set calculation model to obtain an output result of the set calculation model, wherein the output result is used for reflecting the water resource bearing capacity, and the set calculation model is used for reflecting the one-to-one correspondence relationship between the index value and the water resource bearing capacity.
And S1015, comparing the output result with the water resource bearing capacity sample value to obtain the coincidence degree between the output result and the water resource bearing capacity sample value.
S1016, screening the indexes to be screened according to the matching degree to obtain the target indexes.
Step S1013-step S1016 are to randomly select several indexes from the indexes to be screened, input the index values corresponding to the several indexes into a set calculation model (the set calculation model is a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which is the prior art), so as to obtain an output result, compare the output result with the water resource bearing capacity sample value, and if the difference between the two is small, it indicates that the correlation degree between the selected several indexes is small, which is in accordance with the requirement for constructing the final index bearing capacity functional relational expression.
The target index is obtained based on the following principle in steps S1013-S1016:
in order to make the evaluation index system simple and effective, the repeated index information needs to be avoided, and a few representative indexes are screened out. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) can convert a plurality of original variables into a few variables on the premise of ensuring the minimum loss of original information, so that the characteristics of a research object can be more intensively and typically reflected and introduced into index screening, and the method specifically comprises the following processes:
the method comprises the following steps: selecting
And (4) carrying out standardization on M indexes, calculating a correlation matrix R, analyzing the significance of the correlation matrix R, and selecting R pairs of indexes with extremely significant correlation.
Step two: the M indexes are subjected to principal component analysis to select N principal components which are respectively
The contribution rates are respectively
。
Step three: calculating the load factor of the index i in the principal component j
。
Step four: correspondingly selecting load factors in the N main components according to the load factors
And taking N indexes with large coefficients as the indexes of the primary screening.
Step five: the preliminarily selected index is calculated by a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
， Computing
And 
if the deviation does not meet the requirement, returning to the step four to re-screen the indexes, increasing the indexes with larger load factor coefficients, and iterating until the indexes are overlapped or the deviation of the bearing force value is very small. Finally screened
The individual indexes serve as an index set for subsequent evaluation.
S1017, establishing a nonlinear function between the target index and the water resource bearing capacity.
And S1018, substituting the index sample value into the nonlinear function expression to obtain an output value of the nonlinear function expression.
S1019, adjusting parameter values in the nonlinear function expression according to the output value and the water resource bearing capacity sample value to obtain an index bearing capacity function relation expression.
Step S1017-step S1019 are based on the following principle to obtain the index bearing capacity functional relation:
the SVM is a machine learning theory method based on a statistical learning principle, an optimal compromise is sought between the complexity and the learning capacity of a model according to sample information, and the SVM has strong generalization capacity and super-strong nonlinear fitting capacity.
An SVM model is used to construct a functional relationship between the target index and the water resource bearing capacity, and for a given training sample, a regression model is expected to be obtained so that f (x) is as close to y as possible.
The SVM model needs to introduce a kernel function, wherein the kernel function comprises a linear kernel function, a polynomial kernel function, a Gaussian kernel function and the like, wherein the Gaussian kernel function, also called RBF kernel function, is the most commonly used kernel function and has stronger stability when processing a nonlinear problem, so that the RBF kernel function is adopted
The SVM model for obtaining the final bearing capacity of the water resource and each target index is
：
S200, acquiring an index value corresponding to a target index, wherein the target index is used for representing the service condition of the water resource to be evaluated and information corresponding to a user of the water resource to be evaluated.
After the step S100, the target indexes are selected, and when the water resource bearing capacity is evaluated for the target area, the corresponding index values can be directly collected according to the target indexes, so as to perform subsequent calculation of the water resource bearing capacity.
S300, inputting the index value into an index bearing capacity function relation to obtain a function value output by the index bearing capacity function relation, wherein the function value corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the index bearing capacity function relation is formed by the target index and parameters corresponding to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated.
In the embodiment, the collected index value is used as the variable in formula (6)
Is calculated from the value of
Value of (water resource carrying capacity).
And S400, obtaining an evaluation result corresponding to the function value according to the function value, wherein the evaluation result is used for reflecting the to-be-developed utilization amount of the water resource to be evaluated.
Can be paired with
The values (function values) of (a) are divided to obtain each evaluation result.
When in use
When the water resource bearing capacity is smaller than the first set value (0.05), the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated is I grade, which indicates that the water resource bearing capacity is extremely weak and reaches the limit; when in use
When the water resource bearing capacity is greater than the first set value and less than a second set value (0.25), the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated is level II, which indicates that the bearing capacity of the water resource is in a saturated state; when in use
And when the water resource bearing capacity is larger than the second set value and smaller than a third set value (0.5), the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated is level III, which represents that the water resource is in a transition stage state, and indicates that the bearing capacity of the water resource is general.
The function value calculated in step S400 represents the water resource bearing capacity, and the larger the water resource bearing capacity is, the larger the water resource amount that can be developed in the area is. Because the final target indexes in the embodiment include the farmland irrigation rate, the water resource development utilization rate, the annual average water resource amount and the population density, the water resource bearing capacity calculated in the embodiment reflects the water resource amount which can be further developed under a certain population quantity.
After the water resource bearing capacity is obtained through the steps S100 to S400, the index values corresponding to the target indexes in the index bearing capacity functional relation can be optimized to maximize the future water resource bearing capacity, and the specific process is as follows:
and (3) taking a coupling relation F (x) in a formula (7) as an objective function, establishing an optimization model and solving to obtain a water resource bearing capacity optimization decision scheme by taking the maximum water resource bearing capacity as an objective, and providing a strategy and a suggestion for improving the water resource bearing capacity level.
In the embodiment, an absolute bearing capacity value is not sought to be given, but the reference function of the absolute bearing capacity value to policy making is emphasized, a plurality of evaluation indexes under different situations are given, a decision maker selects a proper scheme according to the requirement of city development, and the constraint function of water resource bearing capacity to city construction and development is comprehensively considered.
A water resource system is a complex and changeable system, and relates to the aspects of society, economy, environment and the like, system influence factors influence each other, a cause-and-effect feedback relation exists, a general model cannot reveal the dynamic law, and a system dynamics method has the advantages that other models cannot compare when the complex system with multiple factors, multiple feedback and nonlinearity is solved, and long-term and dynamic quantitative analysis and policy simulation can be carried out.
The System Dynamics (SD-System Dynamics for short) is a simulation technology combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, and is suitable for researching multivariable and multi-feedback complex systems. Nowadays, the method is applied to a plurality of fields such as society, economy, ecology and the like. The method relates to multiple theories such as a control theory, a methodology, a feedback theory and the like, and can effectively combine qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation. The Vensim software is visual graphic analysis and simulation software and has the functions of graphic auxiliary thinking and modeling. The method can be used for structural analysis and data set analysis of the model, and simultaneously comprises strong functional relations such as table functions, smooth functions and the like, and the model can be used for unit inspection and equation inspection, so that the modeling efficiency is improved. The modeling process of the system dynamics is shown in fig. 2:
(1) clear purpose and meaning of modeling
The data is analyzed to understand the problem profile and determine modeling objectives and system boundaries.
(2) Feedback analysis
Determining and classifying system influence factors, drawing a cause and effect loop diagram, comprehensively analyzing feedback relations among variables related to the water resource system, and establishing a system flow diagram as shown in FIG. 2 on the basis.
(3) Quantifying the model
Variable types are defined, including types of relational variables, constants, cumulative variables, and table functions. And determining the functional relation among the variables, and assigning values to input parameters such as constants, initial values of the accumulated variables and the like. For parameters for which functional relationship is difficult to determine, regression analysis, table function method, and the like are commonly used for determination.
(4) Model simulation and inspection
And (3) running the model to simulate to obtain the change curve and the value of each variable, checking whether the simulation result is consistent with the actual system by combining methods such as historical check and the like, and if the simulation result is in a problem, combining the actual correction model to enable the simulation result to meet the requirement of better simulating the actual system.
(5) Simulation analysis and suggestion
And finally, simulating a real system by using the model, analyzing the system trend and giving a relevant decision suggestion.
According to the analysis of a research area water resource bearing capacity system, variable types such as state variables, speed variables (change speed of an index value corresponding to a target index), auxiliary variables, constants and the like are determined, and the mutual influence relationship between the variable quantity of the farmland irrigation area, the water consumption of the farmland irrigation and the total quantity of the agricultural water is established.
The selection of the model parameters is related to the reliability of the simulation result. The regional development planning is comprehensive planning made by organizing multidisciplinary experts in various fields by a local development and reform committee through scientific argumentation according to local specific conditions and aiming at the aspects of economy, population, resources, environment and the like, and each region takes planning as guidance to carry out production construction and corrects the deviation generated in the specific implementation process through policy guidance. The parameters of the model system are selected by combining the development trend summarized in the past development process and the controllability factors for future development in the planning, so that the change of the real system can be reflected to the maximum extent by the result of the model simulation.
The water resource system is a system which continuously changes along with time, the water resource bearing conditions of specific areas are different at different time stages, a preset scene is set from the maximum influence factor of water consumption of four water-requiring users in life, industry, agriculture and ecology, a system dynamics model under different scenes is set up by using Vensim software, the change trend of the water resource bearing capacity is calculated and observed by using data rolling, the potential problem of the water resource and the future development condition are analyzed, and a basis is provided for the research of the subsequent water resource optimization configuration.
The selection of the model parameters is related to the reliability of the simulation result. The regional development planning is comprehensive planning made by organizing multidisciplinary experts in various fields by a local development and reform committee through scientific argumentation according to local specific conditions and aiming at the aspects of economy, population, resources, environment and the like, and each region takes planning as guidance to carry out production construction and corrects the deviation generated in the specific implementation process through policy guidance. The parameters of the model system are selected by combining the development trend summarized in the past development process and the controllability factors for future development in the planning, so that the change of the real system can be reflected to the maximum extent by the result of the model simulation.
The water resource system is a system which changes constantly along with time, the water resource bearing conditions of specific areas are different at different time stages, the embodiment sets a scene by starting from the maximum influence factor of water consumption of four water-demanding users in life, industry, agriculture and ecology, the Vensim software is utilized to build system dynamics models under different scenes, the change trend of the water resource bearing capacity is calculated and observed by data rolling, the potential problem of the water resource and the future development condition are analyzed, and a basis is provided for the research of the subsequent water resource optimization configuration. As shown in fig. 3, the embodiment further refines four large water demand users, each large water demand user is divided into four small users, namely, a high water consumption user, a medium water consumption user, and a low water consumption user, then the index value corresponding to the target index is collected for each small user, and the water resource bearing capacity is calculated according to the index value.
Fig. 4 is the complexity of sample selection by the method of screening samples of the present embodiment, and fig. 5 is the complexity of selecting target indices by the method of the present embodiment. As can be seen from fig. 4 and 5, after the data analysis model is performed, the number of samples and indexes is greatly reduced, so that the number of support vectors is reduced, and the time cost is finally reduced.
As shown in fig. 6, the ordinate in the coordinates is the score for the accuracy of the calculated water bearing capacity. As can be seen from FIG. 6, the water resource bearing capacity score obtained by the present embodiment is substantially 0.186-0.395. The water resource bearing capacity score obtained by the prior art is only 0.177-0.369. From the above comparative figures, it can be seen that the method of the present embodiment can improve the accuracy of the obtained water resource bearing capacity.
In summary, the present invention obtains the corresponding water resource bearing capacity (the function value output by the function relation) by inputting the index value of the target index into the index bearing capacity function relation. Because the water resource bearing capacity of the method is calculated through the functional relation, the accuracy of the water resource bearing capacity obtained by the method can be improved. And further, the water resource bearing capacity obtained by the invention can better provide technical support for developing water resources.
In addition, the method and the device perform water resource bearing capacity evaluation by combining with real-time information, and improve the timeliness of the evaluation result. In the prior art, the evaluation index is selected directly by referring to the previous research or subjective index screening, redundant samples are removed, the evaluation index is initially screened by using a principal component analysis method, and the reasonability of index selection is checked through iteration. In the prior art, only the bearing capacity level is usually calculated, but the invention directly constructs the functional relationship between the evaluation index and the bearing capacity value, determines the water resource bearing capacity evaluation index, analyzes the water resource bearing capacity evaluation value and simplifies the complicated calculation process of the water resource bearing capacity comprehensive evaluation method. An optimization model is established based on the functional relation, and main influence factors of the optimization model are searched, so that an optimization strategy can be provided in a targeted manner, and technical support is provided for guaranteeing and improving the later-stage water environment condition. The prior art generally reflects the current water resource bearing state or the future long-term trend, and the invention carries out scene-based rolling prediction by aiming at real-time monitored data and can continuously observe the change trend of the water resource bearing capacity.
Exemplary devices
This embodiment still provides a water resource bearing capacity evaluation device, the device includes following component:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring an index value corresponding to a target index, and the target index is used for representing the service condition of the water resource to be evaluated and information corresponding to a user of the water resource to be evaluated;
the calculation module is used for inputting the index value into an index bearing capacity functional relation to obtain a function value output by the index bearing capacity functional relation, the function value corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the index bearing capacity functional relation is composed of the target index and parameters corresponding to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated;
the evaluation module is used for obtaining an evaluation result according to the function value, the evaluation result corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated is used for reflecting the utilization amount of the water resource to be evaluated to be developed
Based on the above embodiments, the present invention further provides a terminal device, and a schematic block diagram thereof may be as shown in fig. 7. The terminal equipment comprises a processor, a memory, a network interface, a display screen and a temperature sensor which are connected through a system bus. Wherein the processor of the terminal device is configured to provide computing and control capabilities. The memory of the terminal equipment comprises a nonvolatile storage medium and an internal memory. The non-volatile storage medium stores an operating system and a computer program. The internal memory provides an environment for the operation of an operating system and computer programs in the non-volatile storage medium. The network interface of the terminal device is used for connecting and communicating with an external terminal through a network. The computer program is executed by a processor to implement a water resource bearing capacity assessment method. The display screen of the terminal equipment can be a liquid crystal display screen or an electronic ink display screen, and the temperature sensor of the terminal equipment is arranged in the terminal equipment in advance and used for detecting the operating temperature of the internal equipment.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the block diagram of fig. 7 is only a block diagram of a part of the structure related to the solution of the present invention, and does not constitute a limitation to the terminal device to which the solution of the present invention is applied, and a specific terminal device may include more or less components than those shown in the figure, or may combine some components, or have different arrangements of components.
In one embodiment, a terminal device is provided, where the terminal device includes a memory, a processor, and a water resource capacity assessment program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and when the processor executes the water resource capacity assessment program, the following operation instructions are implemented:
acquiring an index value corresponding to a target index, wherein the target index is used for representing the use condition of a water resource to be evaluated and information corresponding to a user of the water resource to be evaluated;
inputting the index value into an index bearing capacity function relation to obtain a function value output by the index bearing capacity function relation, wherein the function value corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the index bearing capacity function relation is composed of the target index and parameters corresponding to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated;
and obtaining an evaluation result corresponding to the function value according to the function value, wherein the evaluation result is used for reflecting the to-be-developed utilization amount of the water resource to be evaluated.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes of the methods of the embodiments described above can be implemented by hardware instructions of a computer program, which can be stored in a non-volatile computer-readable storage medium, and when executed, can include the processes of the embodiments of the methods described above. Any reference to memory, storage, databases, or other media used in embodiments provided herein may include non-volatile and/or volatile memory. Non-volatile memory can include read-only memory (ROM), Programmable ROM (PROM), Electrically Programmable ROM (EPROM), Electrically Erasable Programmable ROM (EEPROM), or flash memory. Volatile memory can include Random Access Memory (RAM) or external cache memory. By way of illustration and not limitation, RAM is available in a variety of forms such as Static RAM (SRAM), Dynamic RAM (DRAM), Synchronous DRAM (SDRAM), Double Data Rate SDRAM (DDRSDRAM), Enhanced SDRAM (ESDRAM), Synchronous Link DRAM (SLDRAM), Rambus Direct RAM (RDRAM), direct bus dynamic RAM (DRDRAM), and memory bus dynamic RAM (RDRAM).
In summary, the invention discloses a method for evaluating the bearing capacity of water resources, which comprises the following steps: acquiring an index value corresponding to a target index, wherein the target index is used for representing the use condition of a water resource to be evaluated and information corresponding to a user of the water resource to be evaluated; inputting the index value into an index bearing capacity function relation to obtain a function value output by the index bearing capacity function relation, wherein the function value corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the index bearing capacity function relation is composed of the target index and parameters corresponding to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated; and obtaining an evaluation result according to the function value, wherein the evaluation result corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated is used for reflecting the to-be-developed utilization amount of the water resource to be evaluated.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above examples are only intended to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, but not to limit it; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for evaluating water resource bearing capacity is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring an index value corresponding to a target index, wherein the target index is used for representing the use condition of a water resource to be evaluated and information corresponding to a user of the water resource to be evaluated;
inputting the index value into an index bearing capacity function relation to obtain a function value output by the index bearing capacity function relation, wherein the function value corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the index bearing capacity function relation is composed of the target index and parameters corresponding to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated;
and obtaining an evaluation result corresponding to the function value according to the function value, wherein the evaluation result is used for reflecting the to-be-developed utilization amount of the water resource to be evaluated.
2. The method for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation result corresponding to the function value is obtained according to the function value, and the evaluation result is used for reflecting the utilization amount to be developed of the water resource to be evaluated, and the method further comprises the following steps:
obtaining a sample to be screened, wherein the sample to be screened is composed of indexes to be screened corresponding to the target indexes;
obtaining an index reference value corresponding to the index to be screened according to the time to be evaluated corresponding to the water resource to be evaluated;
calculating the absolute difference value between the index value corresponding to each index to be screened in the sample to be screened and the corresponding index reference value;
obtaining the maximum value and the minimum value in the absolute difference values according to the absolute difference values;
screening the sample to be screened according to the maximum value, the minimum value and the absolute difference value between the index value corresponding to each index to be screened and the corresponding index reference value to obtain the screened sample;
according to the screened sample, obtaining a water resource bearing capacity sample value corresponding to the screened sample;
and obtaining the index bearing capacity function relation by a function fitting mode according to the water resource bearing capacity sample value and the screened sample.
3. The method for evaluating water resource bearing capacity according to claim 2, wherein the screening the sample to be screened according to the maximum value, the minimum value, and the absolute difference between the index value corresponding to each index to be screened and the corresponding index reference value to obtain the screened sample comprises:
multiplying the maximum value by a set constant to obtain a product result;
adding the minimum value and the product result to obtain a first addition result;
adding the absolute difference value corresponding to each index to be screened with the product result to obtain a second addition result;
dividing the first addition result by the second addition result to obtain a comparison result corresponding to each index to be screened;
and screening the sample to be screened according to the comparison result corresponding to each index to be screened in the sample to be screened to obtain the screened sample.
4. The method for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity according to claim 3, wherein the step of screening the sample to be screened according to the comparison result corresponding to each index to be screened in the sample to be screened to obtain the screened sample comprises:
adding the comparison results corresponding to each index to be screened in the sample to be screened to obtain a total addition result;
dividing the total addition result by the total number of indexes corresponding to the indexes to be screened to obtain a final comparison result corresponding to each sample to be screened;
and screening each sample to be screened according to the corresponding comparison final result of each sample to be screened to obtain the screened sample.
5. The method for evaluating the water resource bearing capacity according to claim 2, wherein the obtaining the index bearing capacity functional relation by a function fitting method according to the water resource bearing capacity sample value and the screened sample comprises:
preliminarily selecting the indexes to be screened in the screened sample to obtain selected indexes;
substituting the index value corresponding to the selected index into a set calculation model to obtain an output result of the set calculation model, wherein the output result is used for reflecting the water resource bearing capacity, and the set calculation model is used for reflecting the one-to-one correspondence relationship between the index value and the water resource bearing capacity;
comparing the output result with the water resource bearing capacity sample value to obtain the coincidence degree between the output result and the water resource bearing capacity sample value;
screening the indexes to be screened according to the matching degree to obtain the target indexes;
and obtaining an index bearing capacity function relation formula in a function fitting mode according to the index sample value corresponding to the target index and the water resource bearing capacity sample value corresponding to the index sample value.
6. The method for evaluating water resource bearing capacity according to claim 5, wherein the obtaining the index bearing capacity functional relation by a function fitting method according to the index sample value corresponding to the target index and the water resource bearing capacity sample value corresponding to the index sample value comprises:
establishing a nonlinear function formula between the target index and the bearing capacity of the water resource;
substituting the index sample value into the nonlinear function expression to obtain an output value of the nonlinear function expression;
and adjusting the parameter value in the nonlinear function expression according to the output value and the water resource bearing capacity sample value to obtain an index bearing capacity function relation expression.
7. The method for evaluating the bearing capacity of water resources according to claim 2, wherein the indexes to be screened comprise farmland irrigation rate, water resource development and utilization rate, annual average water resource amount and population density.
8. A water resource bearing capacity assessment device is characterized by comprising the following components:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring an index value corresponding to a target index, and the target index is used for representing the service condition of the water resource to be evaluated and information corresponding to a user of the water resource to be evaluated;
the calculation module is used for inputting the index value into an index bearing capacity functional relation to obtain a function value output by the index bearing capacity functional relation, the function value corresponds to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated, and the index bearing capacity functional relation is composed of the target index and parameters corresponding to the bearing capacity of the water resource to be evaluated;
and the evaluation module is used for obtaining an evaluation result corresponding to the function value according to the function value, and the evaluation result is used for reflecting the to-be-developed utilization amount of the water resource to be evaluated.
9. A terminal device, characterized in that the terminal device comprises a memory, a processor and a water resource capacity assessment program stored in the memory and operable on the processor, and when the processor executes the water resource capacity assessment program, the steps of the water resource capacity assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, wherein a water resource capacity assessment program is stored on the computer-readable storage medium, and when executed by a processor, the method according to any one of claims 1-7 is implemented.
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