CN114186783A - Energy efficiency evaluation method of multi-energy complementary system based on comprehensive energy efficiency improvement - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses an energy efficiency evaluation method of a multi-energy complementary system based on comprehensive energy efficiency improvement, which comprises the following steps: step 1: constructing a system comprehensive evaluation index system, and carrying out standardization processing on related data; step 2: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index single weighting weight model, including subjective weighting weight and objective weighting weight; and step 3: determining comprehensive weight of comprehensive evaluation indexes; and 4, step 4: establishing an uncertain measurement model of each index, and performing confidence evaluation on each index; and 5: and carrying out comprehensive scoring on the system according to the confidence evaluation result. The invention has the beneficial effects that: in a comprehensive energy efficiency evaluation index system with energy efficiency improvement as a guide, indexes of three aspects of economy, environment and safety are comprehensively considered, and a set of scientific and comprehensive evaluation standard is established.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of comprehensive energy system optimization operation, in particular to an energy efficiency evaluation method of a multi-energy complementary system based on comprehensive energy efficiency improvement.
Background
Under the background of the era of energy reform, distributed energy is gradually put into experimental production in various industries and regions as green and clean, efficient, environment-friendly, safe and reliable energy, and organically combining an emerging distributed energy system with a traditional centralized energy system is a research direction for the effort promotion of governments and colleges.
At present, relevant research on energy efficiency evaluation of a multi-energy complementary system mostly uses unilateral indexes, especially economic indexes, as main standards, however, in the actual scheduling process, system safety performance and increasingly important environmental protection indexes are also non-negligible standards, and an energy efficiency evaluation system giving consideration to economy, system safety and environmental protection and a corresponding confidence evaluation method are lacked at present.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an energy efficiency evaluation method of a multi-energy complementary system based on comprehensive energy efficiency improvement, so that a specific multi-energy complementary system can be comprehensively evaluated from three aspects of economy, system safety and environment, and confidence evaluation is performed on corresponding evaluation indexes.
In order to achieve the purpose of the application, the technical scheme of the application is as follows:
an energy efficiency evaluation method of a multi-energy complementary system based on comprehensive energy efficiency improvement comprises the following steps:
step 1: constructing a system comprehensive evaluation index system, and carrying out standardization processing on related data;
step 2: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index single weighting weight model, including subjective weighting weight and objective weighting weight;
and step 3: determining comprehensive weight of comprehensive evaluation indexes;
and 4, step 4: establishing an uncertain measurement model of each index, and performing confidence evaluation on each index;
and 5: and carrying out comprehensive scoring on the system according to the confidence evaluation result.
In the step 1, the comprehensive evaluation index system comprises three aspects of economy, system safety and environment.
The economic level indexes in the comprehensive evaluation index system are expressed as net present value, investment recovery period, total investment of projects and internal profitability.
The system safety indexes in the comprehensive evaluation index system are specifically represented by the annual average fault rate of the system, the annual average outage time of the system and the improvement of the reliability of the system.
The environmental level indexes in the comprehensive evaluation index system comprise the operation efficiency of a gas system, the operation efficiency of renewable energy sources, the operation efficiency of a system and the carbon emission of the system.
In the step 2, the subjective weighting adopts an analytic hierarchy process, and the method comprises the following specific steps: step A1, establishing a hierarchical structure analysis model; step A2, constructing a judgment matrix; and step A3, calculating the weight and performing consistency check.
In step 2, the objective weighting adopts an entropy weight method, which specifically comprises the following steps: step B1, constructing a judgment matrix after data standardization; b2, calculating the information entropy of the comprehensive energy efficiency index; and B3, calculating the entropy weight of each index.
In the step 3, the comprehensive weight is weighted by using an addition principle to carry out weighting on the subjective and objective weighted weights.
In step 4, an uncertain measure model is constructed, and the specific implementation steps are as follows: step 4.1, establishing an evaluation space; step 4.2, establishing an uncertain measure of the single index; 4.3, weighting each index to obtain a comprehensive measure matrix; and 4.4, determining the comprehensive energy efficiency grade of the system according to the confidence coefficient.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. in a comprehensive energy efficiency evaluation index system with energy efficiency improvement as a guide, indexes of three aspects of economy, environment and safety are comprehensively considered, and a set of scientific and comprehensive evaluation standard is established.
2. In the process of establishing the evaluation standard, the subjective weighting weight and the objective weighting weight are established in a scientific system mode, and are comprehensively weighted in a statistical mode, and the weighting process is more scientific and reasonable than that of the existing method.
3. And carrying out confidence evaluation on the self evaluation index, and establishing the energy efficiency rating of the object system according to different confidence levels.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a diagram of a comprehensive energy efficiency assessment index architecture;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a multi-energy complementary energy efficiency evaluation method based on energy efficiency improvement;
fig. 3 is a graph of a linear undiagnosed measurement function of the integrated evaluation index.
Detailed Description
It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments in the present application may be combined with each other without conflict.
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the figures and specific examples. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
It is noted that the terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of example embodiments according to the present application. As used herein, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, and it should be understood that when used in this specification the singular forms "a", "an" and/or "the" include "specify the presence of stated features, steps, operations, elements, or modules, components, and/or combinations thereof, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
Referring to fig. 1 and 2, the invention provides an energy efficiency evaluation method of a multi-energy complementary system based on energy efficiency improvement, comprising the following steps:
step 1: and constructing a system comprehensive evaluation index system, and carrying out standardization processing on related data. As shown in the structure diagram of fig. 1, the comprehensive evaluation index system has indexes of three levels of economy, safety and environment, and the index mathematical modeling specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1.1: establishing a system economic index mathematical model;
(1) system operating cost (TOC):
in the formula, Ei,buyIs the power purchase of system i, pi,el,buyIs the on-line electricity price of the system i,
and
respectively the electric quantity and the electricity selling price which are transmitted to a power grid by the wind power generator and the gas turbine in the system i; fi,GT、pi,NGIs the consumption of natural gas in the system and the price of the natural gas，Costi,othFor other costs.
(2) Net Present Value (NPV):
where w is the discount rate and J is the number of cycles of system operation.
(3) Internal Rate of Return (IRR):
in addition, there is a recovery period of investment (TR)
Step 1.2: establishing a system safety index mathematical model;
(1) mean annual fault rate λ of the systemi：
In the formula, NiIs the number of power failures of system i, NtIs the average power off time of the system.
(2) Mean annual outage time r of the systemi：
In the formula: t isdIs the single power off time of the system.
(3) Load point average outage duration Ui
Ui＝λi·ri
Step 1.3, establishing an environment index mathematical model;
(1) gas system operating Efficiency (ER)i,ng)
In the formula, Qi,h,load,Qi,c,load,Ei,loadRespectively, the thermal and cold electrical loads of the system i, Fi,ngIs the amount of natural gas injected.
(2) Renewable energy operating efficiency (NSR)1)
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the total capacity of system i, Fi,ngIs the total installed amount of fossil energy in the system.
(3) Energy supply system operating Efficiency (ER)i)
In the formula, Fi,ng,Fi,WPP,Fi,Solar,Fi,GSHPThe input total amount of natural gas, wind energy, solar energy and geothermal energy of the system respectively.
(4) Carbon emission of system (E)E)
In the formula (f)2(git) Generating carbon emission for the unit; ccIs the carbon emission price;
respectively the carbon emission coefficient of the unit.
Step 2: and constructing a comprehensive evaluation index single weighting weight model, including subjective weighting weight and objective weighting weight. Further, the subjective weighting in the step 2 adopts an analytic hierarchy process, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
step A1, establishing a hierarchical structure analysis model, dividing the hierarchical structure analysis model into a target layer, a criterion layer and a scheme layer, and displaying the hierarchical structure analysis model in an energy efficiency evaluation index system as shown in figure 1.
Step A2, constructing a judgment matrix, and comparing the importance degrees of the evaluation indexes of the same layer in pairs according to the scale shown in the table 1 to construct the judgment matrix. If the scheme layer corresponding to a certain criterion layer comprises n indexes u1,u2,…,unThen, n evaluation factors are compared pairwise to obtain u according to the scale values shown in Table 1i,ujRelative degree of importance aijAnd obtaining a corresponding judgment matrix A as follows:
in the formula, the matrix a is judged to satisfy: a isij＞0；aii＝1；aij＝1/aji；aij＝aik×akj。
TABLE 1 judge matrix comparison Scale values
Step A3, calculating weight and checking consistency; after the decision matrix is formed, the consistency of the matrix needs to be checked. The consistency check is simply to say that when the decision maker thinks u1Index ratio u2The index is important, and u2Index ratio u3If the index is important, it is necessary to check whether u is satisfied1Index constant ratio u3The logic that the indexes are important is used for checking whether the mutual relation among the indexes is uniform or not, and is called consistency check. The specific method comprises the following steps:
firstly, the maximum characteristic root lambda of a judgment matrix is obtained according to the following formulamax：
Wherein AW is the product of a judgment matrix A and a characteristic vector W; (AW)iIs the ith component of AW.
Then, the consistency index of the determination matrix can be calculated by the following formula.
In the formula, n is the index number of the established evaluation matrix.
The consistency index is related to the order number of the matrix, and the larger the order number of the matrix is, the larger the consistency index is, and the constant standard is not available. The degree of consistency is often measured using the random consistency index c.r.
The average consistency index is an index obtained according to a statistical rule, and specific numerical values are shown in the following table:
TABLE 2 values of the random consistency index RI
And according to a statistical rule, when the value of the random consistency index C.R. is less than 0.1, judging that the matrix has acceptable consistency. If the value is greater than 0.1, the fact that each level of analysis has certain deviation logically is indicated, and the judgment matrix needs to be modified until the random consistency index is met.
Further, the objective weighting in the step 2 adopts an entropy weight method, and the specific steps are as follows;
step B1, constructing a judgment matrix after data standardization;
step B2, calculating the information entropy of the comprehensive energy efficiency index, specifically, setting m evaluation objects, wherein the entropy of the jth index of the n evaluation indexes is as follows:
and B3, calculating the entropy weight of each index, specifically, setting the entropy weight of the jth evaluation index as omegaj：
Finally obtaining objective weight vector omega ═ omega1,ω2,...,ωn) And is and
and step 3: and determining the comprehensive weight of the comprehensive evaluation index. And obtaining the comprehensive weight of each index by adopting an addition principle for the subjective weighting weight and the objective weighting weight:
zi＝k1ωi+k2vi(i＝1,2,…，n)
k2＝1-k1
in the formula, PiArranging subjective weight vectors in ascending order and obtaining corresponding components; k is a radical of1，k2The ratio of the subjective weighting weight and the objective weighting weight in the comprehensive weight is respectively.
And 4, step 4: and establishing an uncertain measurement model of each index, and performing confidence evaluation on each index. Further, the uncertain measurement model in step 4 is implemented by the following steps:
and 4.1, establishing an evaluation space. Establishing a rating of the energy saving potential of a userIn the model, evaluation grades are divided in advance. The evaluation level reliability is divided into five levels (p is 5), each of which is C1～C5。
Let the evaluation space be U ═ C1,C2,...,C5And C, and CkEnergy efficiency class of higher than Ck+1，{C1,C2，...，C5And f, orderly dividing the evaluation space U.
And 4.2, establishing an uncertain measure of the single index. The method for constructing the uncertain measure function mainly comprises a linear distribution, an exponential distribution, a parabolic distribution, a sinusoidal distribution and the like. In this embodiment, a linear undetermined measurement function is taken as an example, the comprehensive energy efficiency index is divided into five levels (a, b, c, and d are dividing points of each level), the undetermined measurement function is shown in fig. 3, and the linear undetermined measurement function is as follows:
4.3, weighting each index to obtain a comprehensive measure matrix, wherein the comprehensive weight obtained in the step 3 is omega, and then the ith observation point xiComprehensive energy efficiency evaluation index vector muiComprises the following steps:
and 4.4, determining the comprehensive energy efficiency grade of the system according to the confidence coefficient. According to an uncertain measure theory, setting the reliability as lambda, and when the following formula is satisfied:
the system energy efficiency class belongs to the kth0Individual energy efficiency class Ck0。
And 5: and carrying out comprehensive scoring on the system according to the confidence evaluation result. From the evaluation space U ═ C1,C2,...,C5And C, and C1＞C2＞...＞C5，C1Is given a score of G1And G isi＞Gi+1Then the score q of the subject x is evaluatedx：
Therefore, the energy efficiency grade of each system can be obtained according to the level of the confidence coefficient different from the level of the genuineness, and grading comparison is carried out.
The technical means not described in detail in the present application are known techniques.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, various modifications and decorations can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, and these modifications and decorations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. An energy efficiency evaluation method of a multi-energy complementary system based on comprehensive energy efficiency improvement is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: constructing a system comprehensive evaluation index system, and carrying out standardization processing on related data;
step 2: constructing a comprehensive evaluation index single weighting weight model, including subjective weighting weight and objective weighting weight;
and step 3: determining comprehensive weight of comprehensive evaluation indexes;
and 4, step 4: establishing an uncertain measurement model of each index, and performing confidence evaluation on each index;
and 5: and carrying out comprehensive scoring on the system according to the confidence evaluation result.
2. The evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 1, the comprehensive evaluation index system comprises three aspects of economy, system safety and environment.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the economic aspect index in the composite valuation index system is expressed in terms of net present value, return on investment, total investment in a project, and internal profitability.
4. The evaluation method according to claim 2, wherein the system safety index in the comprehensive evaluation index system is embodied by an average annual fault rate of the system, an average annual outage time of the system, and an improvement in system reliability.
5. The evaluation method according to claim 2, wherein the environmental level indexes in the comprehensive evaluation index system include gas system operation efficiency, renewable energy operation efficiency, system operation efficiency, and system carbon emission.
6. The evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2, the subjective weighting adopts an analytic hierarchy process, and the method comprises the following specific steps: step A1, establishing a hierarchical structure analysis model; step A2, constructing a judgment matrix; and step A3, calculating the weight and performing consistency check.
7. The evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2, the objective weighting adopts an entropy weight method, which comprises the following specific steps: step B1, constructing a judgment matrix after data standardization; b2, calculating the information entropy of the comprehensive energy efficiency index; and B3, calculating the entropy weight of each index.
8. The evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 3, the comprehensive weight is weighted by an additive principle to the subjective and objective weighted weight.
9. The evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 4, an uncertain measure model is constructed, and the specific implementation steps are as follows: step 4.1, establishing an evaluation space; step 4.2, establishing an uncertain measure of the single index; 4.3, weighting each index to obtain a comprehensive measure matrix; and 4.4, determining the comprehensive energy efficiency grade of the system according to the confidence coefficient.
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| CN112766809A (en) * | 2021-02-04 | 2021-05-07 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Evaluation method of comprehensive energy system |
| CN113128893A (en) * | 2021-04-28 | 2021-07-16 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Regional drought prevention and disaster reduction assessment method and device |
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| CN110222973A (en) * | 2019-05-31 | 2019-09-10 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | A kind of integrated energy system evaluation method and system based on optimal weights combination |
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