CN114186423A - Method and system for predicting and evaluating suitable planting area of cigar smoking product - Google Patents
Method and system for predicting and evaluating suitable planting area of cigar smoking product Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A method and a system for predicting and evaluating a suitable planting area of a cigar product are disclosed, which collect and arrange basic data of a designated area, compare the collected basic data with the same type data of the designated high-quality cigar planting area, and analyze the difference of key factors of the cigar leaf growth characteristics of the designated area and the designated high-quality cigar planting area; determining key climate influence factors influencing the planting and air-curing fermentation of the cigars, and evaluating the appropriate range and critical threshold of key meteorological elements of each stage of cigar production; selecting key climate influence factors as independent variables, using quality change as dependent variables, and adopting a multivariate linear stepwise regression method to construct a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model based on the key climate influence factors; and (4) performing annual prediction of the cigar quality according to the cigar quality dynamic prediction model, and screening the cigar product suitable planting area in the specified area. The method provides scientific basis for cigar introduction and planting zoning, and improves the production level and capacity of high-quality cigar tobacco leaves in China.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method and a system for predicting and evaluating a suitable planting area of a cigar product, and belongs to the technical field of tobacco planting.
Background
The core of a cigar is a cigar core, which determines the taste of the cigar and the aroma level during smoking. The eggplant core tobacco is mainly air-cured tobacco, and some sun-cured tobacco can also be used as core materials. The tobacco leaves with the cigar cores are required to have the style of cigar aroma, good taste, certain strength, proper strength, good combustibility and gray white and tight rolling. At present, the development of the cigar industry in China is still in a primary stage, and the domestic raw materials cannot support the continuous and stable development of the cigar industry in China. With the gradual attention of the nation to the cigar industry, the domestic cigars have made a great breakthrough in certain production technology aspects and made great progress in the quality of cigar raw materials.
From the current situation of cigar tobacco production, the cigar tobacco has a larger expansion space both quantitatively and qualitatively, and due to the complexity of landform and topography in mountainous areas and the locality of climate conditions, in the aspects of moderate scale planting planning, variety introduction and the like, a need for refining the climate suitability division of cigar tobacco is urgently needed, scientific basis is provided for expanding cigar planting scale and optimizing tobacco industry structure, and the method is better suitable for tobacco industry market development strategy and the requirement for characteristic high-quality tobacco raw materials.
The meteorological conditions have a great influence on the production of the cigar tobacco leaves, but for the climate suitability research of the cigar tobacco leaves and the prediction research of the cigar quality, a related prediction and evaluation technical scheme is lacked at present, and scientific support cannot be provided for introduction and planting regions.
Disclosure of Invention
Therefore, the invention provides a method and a system for predicting and evaluating the suitable planting area of the cigar tobacco, which realize the prediction and evaluation of the suitable planting area of the cigar tobacco climate so as to obtain high-quality cigar tobacco.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme: a method for predicting and evaluating a suitable planting area of a cigar product comprises the following steps:
acquiring and arranging basic data of a designated area, wherein the basic data comprises basic geographic data, environment actual measurement data, tobacco chemical component data, tobacco sensory data and tobacco physical index data;
comparing the collected basic data with the same type data of the designated high-quality cigar planting area, and analyzing the key factor difference of the cigar tobacco growth characteristics of the designated area and the designated high-quality cigar planting area;
determining key climate influence factors influencing the planting and air-curing fermentation of the cigars, and evaluating the appropriate range and critical threshold of key meteorological elements of each stage of cigar production;
selecting key climate influence factors as independent variables, using quality change as dependent variables, and adopting a multivariate linear stepwise regression method to construct a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model based on the key climate influence factors;
and (4) performing annual prediction of the cigar quality according to the cigar quality dynamic prediction model, and screening the cigar product suitable planting area in the specified area.
As a preferred scheme of a prediction and evaluation method for a proper planting area of a cigar product, the basic geographic data comprise the altitude, the longitude and the latitude and the topographic features of the cigar tobacco planting area;
the environment actual measurement data comprises meteorological element data of meteorological observation stations in cigar planting areas and peripheral areas in the cigar tobacco seedling raising, cultivation, airing and fermentation stages, wherein the meteorological element data comprises air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, wind, humidity and soil temperature;
the tobacco leaf chemical composition data comprise water-soluble total sugar, reducing sugar, total nitrogen, nicotine and potassium content;
the sensory data of the tobacco leaves comprise odor type, fragrance amount, miscellaneous gas, strength, aftertaste, combustibility, gray and sweetness;
the tobacco physical index data comprises the weight of a single leaf, the stem content of the tobacco and the length and width of the tobacco.
As a preferred scheme of the method for predicting and evaluating the suitable planting area of the cigar products, a cigar quality and temperature suitability model, a rainfall suitability model, a sunshine suitability model and a climate suitability model are constructed by taking ten days as a unit, and a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model of a statistical method is constructed.
As a preferred scheme of the method for predicting and evaluating the suitable planting area of the cigar smoking articles, the GIS technology is adopted to calculate and simulate the spatial distribution of all meteorological elements influencing the growth of the cigar tobacco leaves in the cigar planting area, and the method comprises the following steps:
respectively establishing a multivariate statistical model between the temperature and the precipitation and the geographic position and the topographic factor according to the acquired and sorted meteorological site temperature and precipitation data;
calculating a model prediction value for each DEM unit cell, and interpolating a climate residual by adopting a spatial interpolation method to obtain a rasterized residual; and superposing the DEM unit cell and the model predicted value to obtain a spatial distribution map of the temperature and the precipitation of the cigar planting area.
As an optimal scheme of the prediction and evaluation method for the suitable planting area of the cigar smoking product, the optimal spatial interpolation model for interpolating the climate residual error by adopting a spatial interpolation method is a ternary spline function with longitude, latitude and altitude as independent variables.
As a preferred scheme of the method for predicting and evaluating the suitable planting area of the cigar smoking product, the effects of temperature and precipitation interpolation of the cigar planting area are evaluated through root mean square deviation and mean absolute error indexes, and the stability of the temperature and precipitation interpolation errors of the cigar planting area is evaluated through 3 sigma standard deviation;
and extracting slope, slope direction and terrain shading degree terrain factors on the basis of DEM (digital elevation model) as data, and simulating sunshine hours influencing the growth key period of the cigar planting area by applying a multi-factor simulation method under a GIS platform.
As an optimal scheme of the method for predicting and evaluating the suitable planting area of the cigar tobacco products, determining the analysis time period of the climate factors according to the growth period meteorological conditions influencing the cigar tobacco production and by combining the related analysis results of the yield and quality of the tobacco leaves in the past year and the growth period meteorological conditions; and carrying out dimensionless normalization treatment on each climate factor.
As an optimal scheme of the prediction and evaluation method of the suitable planting area of the cigar product, the tobacco planting point of the high-quality cigar planting area and the grid point of the cigar area in the designated area are taken as different individuals of an m-dimensional space, the similar distance between any grid point and the tobacco planting point of each high-quality cigar planting area is respectively calculated, and the minimum similar distance is selected as the similar distance between the grid point and the high-quality cigar planting area;
comparing and analyzing climate factors of the cigars in the designated area and the climate similar area of the high-quality cigar planting area by dividing similar distance grades;
determining the title of each key climate influence factor by utilizing an expert scoring, hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the determined key climate influence factors; and (4) partitioning the ecological climate of the cigar tobacco leaves through a partitioning model, and partitioning the ecological climate suitability of the cigar tobacco leaves.
The invention also provides a system for predicting and evaluating the suitable planting area of the cigar smoking product, which comprises the following components:
the basic data processing unit is used for acquiring and arranging basic data of a designated area, wherein the basic data comprises basic geographic data, environment actual measurement data, tobacco chemical component data, tobacco sensory data and tobacco physical index data;
the difference analysis unit is used for comparing the acquired basic data with the same type data of the designated high-quality cigar planting area and analyzing the difference of key factors of the cigar tobacco growth characteristics of the designated area and the designated high-quality cigar planting area;
the system comprises a meteorological element evaluation unit, a data processing unit and a data processing unit, wherein the meteorological element evaluation unit is used for determining key climate influence factors influencing cigar planting and airing fermentation and evaluating the suitable range and the critical threshold of key meteorological elements of each stage of cigar production;
the forecasting model building unit is used for selecting the key climate influence factors as independent variables and the quality change as dependent variables, and building a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model based on the key climate influence factors by adopting a multivariate linear stepwise regression method;
and the suitable planting area prediction and screening unit is used for carrying out annual prediction on the quality of the cigars according to the dynamic cigar quality prediction model and screening the suitable planting area of cigar products in the specified area.
As a preferred scheme of the system for predicting and evaluating the suitable planting area of the cigar smoking articles, in the basic data processing unit, the basic geographic data comprise the altitude, the longitude and the latitude and the topographic features of the cigar tobacco planting area;
the environment actual measurement data comprises meteorological element data of meteorological observation stations in cigar planting areas and peripheral areas in the cigar tobacco seedling raising, cultivation, airing and fermentation stages, wherein the meteorological element data comprises air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, wind, humidity and soil temperature;
the tobacco leaf chemical composition data comprise water-soluble total sugar, reducing sugar, total nitrogen, nicotine and potassium content;
the sensory data of the tobacco leaves comprise odor type, fragrance amount, miscellaneous gas, strength, aftertaste, combustibility, gray and sweetness;
the tobacco physical index data comprises the weight of a single leaf, the stem content of the tobacco and the length and width of the tobacco.
As a preferred scheme of the system for predicting and evaluating the suitable planting area of the cigar products, the forecasting model building unit builds a cigar quality and temperature suitability model, a rainfall suitability model, a sunshine suitability model and a climate suitability model by taking ten days as a unit, and builds a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model of a statistical method.
As a preferred scheme of the system for predicting and evaluating the suitable planting area of the cigar smoking product, in the suitable planting area prediction screening unit, the spatial distribution of each meteorological element influencing the growth of the cigar tobacco leaves in the cigar planting area is calculated and simulated by adopting a GIS technology, and the method comprises the following steps:
respectively establishing a multivariate statistical model between the temperature and the precipitation and the geographic position and the topographic factor according to the acquired and sorted meteorological site temperature and precipitation data;
calculating a model prediction value for each DEM unit cell, and interpolating a climate residual by adopting a spatial interpolation method to obtain a rasterized residual; and superposing the DEM unit cell and the model predicted value to obtain a spatial distribution map of the temperature and the precipitation of the cigar planting area.
As an optimal scheme of the prediction and evaluation system for the suitable planting area of the cigar smoking product, the optimal spatial interpolation model for interpolating the climate residual error by adopting a spatial interpolation method is a ternary spline function with longitude, latitude and altitude as independent variables.
As a preferred scheme of the prediction and evaluation system for the proper planting area of the cigar smoking product, the effects of temperature and precipitation interpolation of the cigar planting area are evaluated through root mean square deviation and mean absolute error indexes, and the stability of the temperature and precipitation interpolation errors of the cigar planting area is evaluated through 3 sigma standard deviation;
extracting slope, slope direction and terrain shading degree terrain factors on the basis of DEM (digital elevation model) as data, and simulating sunshine hours influencing the growth key period of the cigar planting area by applying a multi-factor simulation method under a GIS platform;
determining a climate factor analysis time period according to the growth period meteorological conditions influencing the cigar tobacco production and by combining the related analysis results of the yield and quality of the tobacco leaves in the past year and the growth period meteorological conditions; and carrying out dimensionless normalization treatment on each climate factor.
As an optimal scheme of the prediction and evaluation system of the suitable planting area of the cigar product, the tobacco planting point of the high-quality cigar planting area and the grid point of the cigar area in the designated area are taken as different individuals of an m-dimensional space, the similar distance between any grid point and the tobacco planting point of each high-quality cigar planting area is respectively calculated, and the minimum similar distance is selected as the similar distance between the grid point and the high-quality cigar planting area;
comparing and analyzing climate factors of the cigars in the designated area and the climate similar area of the high-quality cigar planting area by dividing similar distance grades;
determining the title of each key climate influence factor by utilizing an expert scoring, hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the determined key climate influence factors; and (4) partitioning the ecological climate of the cigar tobacco leaves through a partitioning model, and partitioning the ecological climate suitability of the cigar tobacco leaves.
The invention has the following advantages: collecting and arranging basic data of a designated area, wherein the basic data comprises basic geographic data, environment actual measurement data, tobacco chemical component data, tobacco sensory data and tobacco physical index data; comparing the collected basic data with the same type data of the designated high-quality cigar planting area, and analyzing the key factor difference of the cigar tobacco growth characteristics of the designated area and the designated high-quality cigar planting area; determining key climate influence factors influencing the planting and air-curing fermentation of the cigars, and evaluating the appropriate range and critical threshold of key meteorological elements of each stage of cigar production; selecting key climate influence factors as independent variables, using quality change as dependent variables, and adopting a multivariate linear stepwise regression method to construct a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model based on the key climate influence factors; and (4) performing annual prediction of the cigar quality according to the cigar quality dynamic prediction model, and screening the cigar product suitable planting area in the specified area. The method can improve the sustainable development capability of the cigar industry, provide scientific basis for cigar introduction and planting zoning, and improve the production level and capability of high-quality cigar tobacco leaves in China.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below. It should be apparent that the drawings in the following description are merely exemplary, and that other embodiments can be derived from the drawings provided by those of ordinary skill in the art without inventive effort.
The structures, ratios, sizes, and the like shown in the present specification are only used for matching with the contents disclosed in the specification, so that those skilled in the art can understand and read the present invention, and do not limit the conditions for implementing the present invention, so that the present invention has no technical significance, and any structural modifications, changes in the ratio relationship, or adjustments of the sizes, without affecting the functions and purposes of the present invention, should still fall within the scope of the present invention.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting and evaluating a suitable growing area of a cigar product according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a system for predicting and evaluating a suitable planting area of a cigar smoking article according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is described in terms of particular embodiments, other advantages and features of the invention will become apparent to those skilled in the art from the following disclosure, and it is to be understood that the described embodiments are merely exemplary of the invention and that it is not intended to limit the invention to the particular embodiments disclosed. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1
Referring to fig. 1, embodiment 1 of the present invention provides a method for predicting and evaluating a suitable planting area of a cigar product, including the following steps:
s1, collecting and sorting basic data of the designated area, wherein the basic data comprises basic geographic data, environment actual measurement data, tobacco chemical component data, tobacco sensory data and tobacco physical index data;
s2, comparing the collected basic data with the same type data of the designated high-quality cigar planting area, and analyzing the key factor difference of the cigar tobacco growth characteristics of the designated area and the designated high-quality cigar planting area;
s3, determining key climate influence factors influencing cigar planting and air-curing fermentation, and evaluating the appropriate range and critical threshold of key meteorological elements of each stage of cigar production;
s4, selecting key climate influence factors as independent variables, selecting quality changes as dependent variables, and constructing a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model based on the key climate influence factors by adopting a multivariate linear stepwise regression method;
s5, performing annual prediction of cigar quality according to the cigar quality dynamic prediction model, and screening cigar products suitable planting areas in the specified areas.
In the embodiment, by looking up relevant documents and data collection, climate, soil and ecological factors of high-quality cigar origin and domestic main cigar planting areas are analyzed, so that the growth characteristics of the high-quality cigar in the growth period are determined.
Specifically, the basic geographic data is geographic information data of the cigar tobacco planting area, and the geographic information data comprises the altitude, the longitude and the latitude and the topographic features of the cigar tobacco planting area. The environment actual measurement data comprises meteorological element data of meteorological observation stations in cigar planting areas and peripheral areas in the cigar tobacco seedling raising, cultivation, airing and fermentation stages, wherein the meteorological element data comprises air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, wind, humidity and soil temperature. The tobacco leaf chemical composition data comprise water-soluble total sugar, reducing sugar, total nitrogen, nicotine and potassium content; the sensory data of the tobacco leaves comprise odor type, fragrance amount, miscellaneous gas, strength, aftertaste, combustibility, gray and sweetness; the tobacco physical index data comprises the weight of a single leaf, the stem content of the tobacco and the length and width of the tobacco.
Meanwhile, relevant data of foreign tobacco origin places and domestic high-quality cigar areas are collected from departments such as agriculture, meteorology and tobacco; main agricultural meteorological disasters and pest and disease damage data which have influences on the quality and the yield of tobacco leaves.
In the embodiment, based on relevant data such as a national weather observation station, an automatic weather observation station, a tobacco field microclimate observation station and the like, by using methods such as a linear regression method, a sliding average method, an accumulative distance method, a Mann-Kendall method and the like, the change characteristics of elements such as temperatures, rainfall, sunshine, evaporation capacity, frost-free period, temperature product with temperature not lower than 10 ℃ and 80% guarantee rate, day number lasting not lower than 20 ℃ and the like in different periods such as a tobacco planting area year, season, month, ten day and different growth periods are analyzed, and the evolution law of extreme weather events which have great influence on tobacco leaf growth such as rain, rainstorm, hail, drought, high temperature and the like is analyzed at the same time.
Specifically, the ecological environment factors such as climate, soil, geography and the like of the cigar planting area and the related tobacco quality data are compared with the related data of the main cigar planting area of the foreign high-quality cigar origin place, and the difference of key factors of the growth characteristics of the cigar tobacco in different areas is analyzed.
By analyzing and researching the relation between the climate of main varieties of cigar tobacco regions and the quality and the yield of tobacco leaves, key climate influence factors (heat, illumination, precipitation and the like) influencing the seedling, cultivation, airing and fermentation periods of the cigar tobacco leaves are determined, and the suitable range and the critical threshold of key meteorological elements in each stage of cigar production are evaluated. Based on the cigar quality data and the microclimate observation data, multivariate clustering analysis (k-means fast clustering method), correlation analysis, typical correlation analysis, multivariate linear regression and the like are carried out, a relational model of the transplanting period climatic conditions and the cigar quality is established, and the influence of the transplanting period climatic factors on the cigar quality is quantitatively analyzed.
In this embodiment, a cigar quality temperature suitability model, a precipitation suitability model, a sunshine suitability model, and a climate suitability model are constructed in ten days, and a cigar quality dynamic prediction model of a statistical method is constructed.
Specifically, a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model with ten-day as a step length is established, a key climate influence factor is selected as an independent variable, quality change is selected as a dependent variable, and a multivariate linear stepwise regression method is adopted to establish the cigar quality dynamic forecasting model based on the key climate influence factor. The method is characterized in that a fuzzy mathematical method is used, the influence of a plurality of meteorological factors such as temperature, rainfall, sunshine and the like on the quality of the cigar is comprehensively considered, a cigar quality temperature suitability model, a rainfall suitability model, a sunshine suitability model and a climate suitability model are established by taking ten days as a unit, and a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model of a statistical method is established.
In this embodiment, the calculation and simulation of the spatial distribution of the meteorological elements affecting the growth of the cigar leaves in the cigar planting area by the GIS technology includes:
respectively establishing a multivariate statistical model between the temperature and the precipitation and the geographic position and the topographic factor according to the acquired and sorted meteorological site temperature and precipitation data;
calculating a model prediction value for each DEM unit cell, and interpolating a climate residual by adopting a spatial interpolation method to obtain a rasterized residual; and superposing the DEM unit cell and the model predicted value to obtain a spatial distribution map of the temperature and the precipitation of the cigar planting area.
Specifically, the calculation equation is established as follows:
(1) in the formula, Yi(k) Denotes the climate resource value of the ith climate element at the grid point, k ═ 1.. multidata n denotes the number of grids, b denotes the number of gridsjTo be a coefficient of undetermination, XjIs the jth geographic parameter, such as longitude, latitude, altitude, grade, slope, etc.,
for the prediction model established between the ith climate factor and the geographic data, Δ EiTo synthesize the geographic residual.
In this embodiment, the optimal spatial interpolation model for interpolating the climate residual error by using the spatial interpolation method is a ternary spline function with longitude, latitude, and altitude as independent variables.
Specifically, Anusprin is based on the spline function interpolation theory of common thin disks and local thin disks. The local thin disk smooth spline is an extension of the thin disk smooth spline prototype, which allows the introduction of linear covariate submodels, such as the correlation between temperature and altitude, evaporation and water vapor pressure difference, in addition to the usual spline independent variables.
The theoretical model of the local thin disk smooth spline is described as follows:
zi＝f(xi)+bTyi+ei(i＝1，...，N) (2)
(2) in the formula: z is a radical ofiIs a dependent variable at a space i point; x is the number ofiD-dimensional spline independent variables; f is the value to be estimated with respect to xiKnown smoothing function of (1); y isiIs a p-dimensional independent covariate; b is yiP-dimensional coefficients of (a); e.g. of the typeiIs an independent variable random error with an expected value of 0.
The function f and the coefficient vector b can be determined by minimization, i.e. least squares estimation:
(3) in the formula, Jm(f) As a scaling function, f (x)i) A function of complexity, also called a roughness measure function, defined as the integral of the m-th order partial derivative of the function f; rho is a smoothing parameter and takes a positive value. When rho infinitely approaches O, the fitted function approaches to accurate interpolation; when p approaches infinity, the fitted function approaches a least squares polynomial, the degree of which depends on the order m of the coarse measurement function. The value of the smoothing parameter ρ is usually determined by the pass widthThe prediction error of the fitted surface determined by the sense-and-cross test is minimized, and can also be determined by the generalized maximum likelihood based on the Bayes formula.
In the embodiment, the effects of temperature and precipitation interpolation of the cigar planting area are evaluated through root mean square error and mean absolute error index, and the stability of temperature and precipitation interpolation error of the cigar planting area is evaluated through 3 sigma standard deviation. Specifically, the observation station data is removed one by one, the predicted value of the station is generated by simulating other stations, and the predicted value is compared and analyzed with the actual observation value, so that the error condition of interpolation is determined. The error is checked by using low-altitude and high-altitude sampling points respectively, the effects of tobacco planting area temperature and precipitation interpolation are evaluated through root mean square error and mean absolute error indexes, and the stability of the tobacco planting area temperature and precipitation interpolation error is evaluated through 3 sigma standard deviation.
In the embodiment, the DEM is used as a data base, the terrain factors of the slope, the slope direction and the terrain shading degree are extracted, and the multi-factor simulation method is applied to simulate the sunshine hours influencing the growth key period of the cigar planting area under the GIS platform.
Specifically, by taking DEM as a data base, through extracting terrain factors such as gradient, slope direction, terrain shielding degree and the like, and applying a multi-factor simulation method under a GIS platform, the simulation of sunshine hours influencing the growth key period of the cigarette area in Hubei is realized. For the convenience of computer implementation, the illuminable time angle in 1 day is discretized, namely, the illuminable time angle in 1 day is divided into a series of differential units, the sunshine time in each unit time is simulated, the sunshine hours in 1 day are obtained after integration and summation, and finally, the duration data are added to obtain the corresponding sunshine hours.
In the embodiment, the climate factor analysis time period is determined according to the growth period meteorological conditions influencing the cigar tobacco production and by combining the related analysis results of the yield and quality of the tobacco leaves in the past year and the growth period meteorological conditions; and carrying out dimensionless normalization treatment on each climate factor.
Specifically, the weight of each climate factor is determined by a standard deviation method. The standard deviation weight method belongs to a local difference driven objective weighting method, the determination of index weight is determined by the discrimination of each index among samples, the index with large standard deviation has large discreteness and is endowed with higher weight. The index weight is:
(4) in formulae (5) and (iii), wkIs the weight of the kth factor, and m is the number of factors; skIs the sample standard deviation, x, of the k indexikIs the normalized value of the kth factor of the ith sample point,
the normalized value of each sample point of the kth index is the average value, and n is the number of samples.
In the embodiment, the tobacco planting point of the high-quality cigar planting area and the tobacco planting point of the cigar area in the designated area are taken as different individuals of an m-dimensional space, the similar distance between any grid point and the tobacco planting point of each high-quality cigar planting area is respectively calculated, and the minimum similar distance is selected as the similar distance between the grid point and the high-quality cigar planting area;
and comparing and analyzing the climate factors of the cigars in the designated area and the climate similar area of the high-quality cigar planting area by dividing the similar distance grade.
Specifically, the Euclidean distance is adopted to measure the similarity degree between two individuals, a sample XX is arranged,
(6) in the formula, n is the sample capacity, m is the number of factors, and each individual can be regarded as one point of an m-dimensional space. The improved euclidean distance is:
(7) in the formula, i and j are two lattice points (stations) in space, m is the number of factors, x is normalized, d isijThe similarity distance between the point i and the point j can be regarded, and the smaller the distance, the higher the similarity is.
In the embodiment, according to the determined key climate influence factors, the authority certificate of each key climate influence factor is determined by using expert scoring, hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods; and (4) partitioning the ecological climate of the cigar tobacco leaves through a partitioning model, and partitioning the ecological climate suitability of the cigar tobacco leaves.
Meanwhile, the ecological climate suitability partition of the cigar tobacco leaves is finally carried out by referring to the landform, the basic tobacco field distribution, the expert experience, a certain administrative region and the like.
The division model is as follows:
(8) in the formula, S is an ecological climate suitability evaluation index of each evaluation unit; wiRelative weight of the ith evaluation factor; siQuantitatively evaluating the index of the ith evaluation factor; n is the number of evaluation factors.
In summary, the basic data of the designated area is collected and sorted, and the basic data comprises basic geographic data, environment actual measurement data, tobacco chemical component data, tobacco sensory data and tobacco physical index data; comparing the collected basic data with the same type data of the designated high-quality cigar planting area, and analyzing the key factor difference of the cigar tobacco growth characteristics of the designated area and the designated high-quality cigar planting area; determining key climate influence factors influencing the planting and air-curing fermentation of the cigars, and evaluating the appropriate range and critical threshold of key meteorological elements of each stage of cigar production; selecting key climate influence factors as independent variables, using quality change as dependent variables, and adopting a multivariate linear stepwise regression method to construct a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model based on the key climate influence factors; and (4) performing annual prediction of the cigar quality according to the cigar quality dynamic prediction model, and screening the cigar product suitable planting area in the specified area. The method can improve the sustainable development capability of the cigar industry, provide scientific basis for cigar introduction and planting zoning, and improve the production level and capability of high-quality cigar tobacco leaves in China.
Example 2
Referring to fig. 2, embodiment 2 of the present invention further provides a system for predicting and evaluating a suitable planting area of a cigar product, including:
the basic data processing unit 1 is used for acquiring and arranging basic data of a designated area, wherein the basic data comprises basic geographic data, environment actual measurement data, tobacco chemical component data, tobacco sensory data and tobacco physical index data;
the difference analysis unit 2 is used for comparing the acquired basic data with the same type data of the designated high-quality cigar planting area and analyzing the difference of key factors of the cigar leaf growth characteristics of the designated area and the designated high-quality cigar planting area;
the meteorological element evaluation unit 3 is used for determining key climate influence factors influencing the cigar planting and airing fermentation and evaluating the suitable range and the critical threshold of the key meteorological elements in each stage of cigar production;
the forecasting model building unit 4 is used for selecting the key climate influence factors as independent variables and the quality change as dependent variables, and building a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model based on the key climate influence factors by adopting a multivariate linear stepwise regression method;
and the suitable planting area prediction and screening unit 5 is used for carrying out annual prediction on the quality of the cigars according to the dynamic cigar quality prediction model and screening the suitable planting area of cigar products in the specified area.
In this embodiment, in the basic data processing unit 1, the basic geographic data includes an altitude, a longitude and a latitude, and topographic features of a cigar tobacco planting area;
the environment actual measurement data comprises meteorological element data of meteorological observation stations in cigar planting areas and peripheral areas in the cigar tobacco seedling raising, cultivation, airing and fermentation stages, wherein the meteorological element data comprises air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, wind, humidity and soil temperature;
the tobacco leaf chemical composition data comprise water-soluble total sugar, reducing sugar, total nitrogen, nicotine and potassium content;
the sensory data of the tobacco leaves comprise odor type, fragrance amount, miscellaneous gas, strength, aftertaste, combustibility, gray and sweetness;
the tobacco physical index data comprises the weight of a single leaf, the stem content of the tobacco and the length and width of the tobacco.
In this embodiment, the forecasting model constructing unit 4 constructs a cigar quality temperature suitability model, a precipitation suitability model, a sunshine suitability model, and a climate suitability model in ten days, and constructs a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model by a statistical method.
In this embodiment, in the suitable planting area prediction screening unit 5, calculating and simulating the spatial distribution of each meteorological element affecting the growth of the cigar tobacco in the cigar planting area by using a GIS technology includes:
respectively establishing a multivariate statistical model between the temperature and the precipitation and the geographic position and the topographic factor according to the acquired and sorted meteorological site temperature and precipitation data;
calculating a model prediction value for each DEM unit cell, and interpolating a climate residual by adopting a spatial interpolation method to obtain a rasterized residual; and superposing the DEM unit cell and the model predicted value to obtain a spatial distribution map of the temperature and the precipitation of the cigar planting area.
In this embodiment, the optimal spatial interpolation model for interpolating the climate residual error by using the spatial interpolation method is a ternary spline function with longitude, latitude, and altitude as independent variables.
In the embodiment, the effects of the temperature and the precipitation interpolation of the cigar planting area are evaluated through the root mean square error and the mean absolute error index, and the stability of the temperature and the precipitation interpolation error of the cigar planting area is evaluated through the 3 sigma standard deviation;
extracting slope, slope direction and terrain shading degree terrain factors on the basis of DEM (digital elevation model) as data, and simulating sunshine hours influencing the growth key period of the cigar planting area by applying a multi-factor simulation method under a GIS platform;
determining a climate factor analysis time period according to the growth period meteorological conditions influencing the cigar tobacco production and by combining the related analysis results of the yield and quality of the tobacco leaves in the past year and the growth period meteorological conditions; and carrying out dimensionless normalization treatment on each climate factor.
In the embodiment, the tobacco planting point of the high-quality cigar planting area and the tobacco planting point of the cigar area in the designated area are taken as different individuals of an m-dimensional space, the similar distance between any grid point and the tobacco planting point of each high-quality cigar planting area is respectively calculated, and the minimum similar distance is selected as the similar distance between the grid point and the high-quality cigar planting area;
comparing and analyzing climate factors of the cigars in the designated area and the climate similar area of the high-quality cigar planting area by dividing similar distance grades;
determining the title of each key climate influence factor by utilizing an expert scoring, hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the determined key climate influence factors; and (4) partitioning the ecological climate of the cigar tobacco leaves through a partitioning model, and partitioning the ecological climate suitability of the cigar tobacco leaves.
It should be noted that, for the information interaction, execution process, and other contents between the modules/units of the system, since the same concept is based on the method embodiment in embodiment 1 of the present application, the technical effect brought by the information interaction, execution process, and other contents are the same as those of the method embodiment of the present application, and specific contents may refer to the description in the foregoing method embodiment of the present application, and are not described herein again.
Example 3
The computer-readable storage medium can be any available medium that can be accessed by a computer or a data storage device, such as a server, a data center, etc., that incorporates one or more of the available media. The usable medium may be a magnetic medium (e.g., floppy Disk, hard Disk, magnetic tape), an optical medium (e.g., DVD), or a semiconductor medium (e.g., Solid State Disk (SSD)), among others.
Example 4
An embodiment 4 of the present invention provides an electronic device, including: a memory and a processor;
the processor and the memory are communicated with each other through a bus; the memory stores program instructions executable by the processor to invoke the suitable growing area prediction assessment method of cigar smoking articles of embodiment 1 or any possible implementation thereof.
Specifically, the processor may be implemented by hardware or software, and when implemented by hardware, the processor may be a logic circuit, an integrated circuit, or the like; when implemented in software, the processor may be a general-purpose processor implemented by reading software code stored in a memory, which may be integrated in the processor, located external to the processor, or stand-alone.
In the above embodiments, the implementation may be wholly or partially realized by software, hardware, firmware, or any combination thereof. When implemented in software, may be implemented in whole or in part in the form of a computer program product. The computer program product includes one or more computer instructions. When loaded and executed on a computer, cause the processes or functions described in accordance with the embodiments of the invention to occur, in whole or in part. The computer may be a general purpose computer, a special purpose computer, a network of computers, or other programmable device. The computer instructions may be stored in a computer readable storage medium or transmitted from one computer readable storage medium to another, for example, from one website site, computer, server, or data center to another website site, computer, server, or data center via wired (e.g., coaxial cable, fiber optic, Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)) or wireless (e.g., infrared, wireless, microwave, etc.).
It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the modules or steps of the present invention described above may be implemented by a general purpose computing device, they may be centralized on a single computing device or distributed across a network of multiple computing devices, and alternatively, they may be implemented by program code executable by a computing device, such that they may be stored in a storage device and executed by a computing device, and in some cases, the steps shown or described may be performed in an order different than that described herein, or they may be separately fabricated into individual integrated circuit modules, or multiple ones of them may be fabricated into a single integrated circuit module. Thus, the present invention is not limited to any specific combination of hardware and software.
Although the invention has been described in detail above with reference to a general description and specific examples, it will be apparent to one skilled in the art that modifications or improvements may be made thereto based on the invention. Accordingly, such modifications and improvements are intended to be within the scope of the invention as claimed.
Claims (10)
1. A method for predicting and evaluating a suitable planting area of a cigar product is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring and arranging basic data of a designated area, wherein the basic data comprises basic geographic data, environment actual measurement data, tobacco chemical component data, tobacco sensory data and tobacco physical index data;
comparing the collected basic data with the same type data of the designated high-quality cigar planting area, and analyzing the key factor difference of the cigar tobacco growth characteristics of the designated area and the designated high-quality cigar planting area;
determining key climate influence factors influencing the planting and air-curing fermentation of the cigars, and evaluating the appropriate range and critical threshold of key meteorological elements of each stage of cigar production;
selecting key climate influence factors as independent variables, using quality change as dependent variables, and adopting a multivariate linear stepwise regression method to construct a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model based on the key climate influence factors;
and (4) performing annual prediction of the cigar quality according to the cigar quality dynamic prediction model, and screening the cigar product suitable planting area in the specified area.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the basic geographic data includes elevation, longitude and latitude, and topographic features of the cigar planting area;
the environment actual measurement data comprises meteorological element data of meteorological observation stations in cigar planting areas and peripheral areas in the cigar tobacco seedling raising, cultivation, airing and fermentation stages, wherein the meteorological element data comprises air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, wind, humidity and soil temperature;
the tobacco leaf chemical composition data comprise water-soluble total sugar, reducing sugar, total nitrogen, nicotine and potassium content;
the sensory data of the tobacco leaves comprise odor type, fragrance amount, miscellaneous gas, strength, aftertaste, combustibility, gray and sweetness;
the tobacco physical index data comprises the weight of a single leaf, the stem content of the tobacco and the length and width of the tobacco.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein a cigar quality temperature suitability model, a precipitation suitability model, a sunshine suitability model and a climate suitability model are constructed in ten days, and a statistical cigar quality dynamic forecast model is constructed.
4. The method for predicting and evaluating the suitable planting area of the cigar smoking product according to the claim 3, wherein the GIS technology is adopted to calculate and simulate the spatial distribution of various meteorological elements influencing the growth of the cigar leaves in the cigar planting area, and the method comprises the following steps:
respectively establishing a multivariate statistical model between the temperature and the precipitation and the geographic position and the topographic factor according to the acquired and sorted meteorological site temperature and precipitation data;
calculating a model prediction value for each DEM unit cell, and interpolating a climate residual by adopting a spatial interpolation method to obtain a rasterized residual; and superposing the DEM unit cell and the model predicted value to obtain a spatial distribution map of the temperature and the precipitation of the cigar planting area.
5. The method for predictive assessment of fit for cigar smoking articles according to claim 4, wherein the optimal spatial interpolation model for interpolating climate residuals by spatial interpolation method is a ternary spline function with longitude, latitude and altitude as independent variables.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the effects of cigar planting area temperature and precipitation interpolation are evaluated by root mean square error and mean absolute error index, and the stability of cigar planting area temperature and precipitation interpolation error is evaluated by 3 σ standard deviation;
and extracting slope, slope direction and terrain shading degree terrain factors on the basis of DEM (digital elevation model) as data, and simulating sunshine hours influencing the growth key period of the cigar planting area by applying a multi-factor simulation method under a GIS platform.
7. The method for the predictive assessment of the suitable growing area of the cigar products according to claim 6, wherein the climate factor analysis period is determined according to the growth period meteorological conditions affecting the cigar leaf production, in combination with the analysis results of the yield and quality of the cigar leaves in the past year and the related growth period meteorological conditions; and carrying out dimensionless normalization treatment on each climate factor.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the tobacco planting point of the high-quality cigar planting area and the tobacco planting point of the cigar area in the designated area are taken as different individuals in an m-dimensional space, the similar distance between any grid point and the tobacco planting point of each high-quality cigar planting area is calculated respectively, and the minimum similar distance is selected as the similar distance between the grid point and the high-quality cigar planting area;
comparing and analyzing climate factors of the cigars in the designated area and the climate similar area of the high-quality cigar planting area by dividing similar distance grades;
determining the title of each key climate influence factor by utilizing an expert scoring, hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the determined key climate influence factors; and (4) partitioning the ecological climate of the cigar tobacco leaves through a partitioning model, and partitioning the ecological climate suitability of the cigar tobacco leaves.
9. A system for predictive assessment of the suitability of a cigar smoking article for placement in a region, comprising:
the basic data processing unit is used for acquiring and arranging basic data of a designated area, wherein the basic data comprises basic geographic data, environment actual measurement data, tobacco chemical component data, tobacco sensory data and tobacco physical index data;
the difference analysis unit is used for comparing the acquired basic data with the same type data of the designated high-quality cigar planting area and analyzing the difference of key factors of the cigar tobacco growth characteristics of the designated area and the designated high-quality cigar planting area;
the system comprises a meteorological element evaluation unit, a data processing unit and a data processing unit, wherein the meteorological element evaluation unit is used for determining key climate influence factors influencing cigar planting and airing fermentation and evaluating the suitable range and the critical threshold of key meteorological elements of each stage of cigar production;
the forecasting model building unit is used for selecting the key climate influence factors as independent variables and the quality change as dependent variables, and building a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model based on the key climate influence factors by adopting a multivariate linear stepwise regression method;
and the suitable planting area prediction and screening unit is used for carrying out annual prediction on the quality of the cigars according to the dynamic cigar quality prediction model and screening the suitable planting area of cigar products in the specified area.
10. The system of claim 9, wherein the basic geographic data processing unit comprises the elevation, longitude and latitude, and topographic features of the cigar planting area;
the environment actual measurement data comprises meteorological element data of meteorological observation stations in cigar planting areas and peripheral areas in the cigar tobacco seedling raising, cultivation, airing and fermentation stages, wherein the meteorological element data comprises air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, wind, humidity and soil temperature;
the tobacco leaf chemical composition data comprise water-soluble total sugar, reducing sugar, total nitrogen, nicotine and potassium content;
the sensory data of the tobacco leaves comprise odor type, fragrance amount, miscellaneous gas, strength, aftertaste, combustibility, gray and sweetness;
the physical index data of the tobacco leaves comprise the weight of each leaf, the stem content of the tobacco leaves and the length and width of the tobacco leaves;
in the forecasting model building unit, a cigar quality temperature suitability model, a rainfall suitability model, a sunshine suitability model and a climate suitability model are built by taking ten days as a unit, and a cigar quality dynamic forecasting model of a statistical method is built;
in the prediction screening unit suitable for the planting area, the spatial distribution of each meteorological element influencing the growth of the cigar tobacco leaves in the cigar planting area is calculated and simulated by adopting a GIS technology, and the prediction screening unit comprises the following steps:
respectively establishing a multivariate statistical model between the temperature and the precipitation and the geographic position and the topographic factor according to the acquired and sorted meteorological site temperature and precipitation data;
calculating a model prediction value for each DEM unit cell, and interpolating a climate residual by adopting a spatial interpolation method to obtain a rasterized residual; superposing the DEM unit grid and the model predicted value to obtain a spatial distribution map of the temperature and the precipitation of the cigar planting area;
the optimal spatial interpolation model for interpolating the climate residual error by adopting a spatial interpolation method is a ternary spline function with longitude, latitude and altitude as independent variables;
evaluating the effects of temperature and precipitation interpolation of the cigar planting area through the root mean square error and the mean absolute error index, and evaluating the stability of the temperature and precipitation interpolation errors of the cigar planting area through the 3 sigma standard deviation;
extracting slope, slope direction and terrain shading degree terrain factors on the basis of DEM (digital elevation model) as data, and simulating sunshine hours influencing the growth key period of the cigar planting area by applying a multi-factor simulation method under a GIS platform;
determining a climate factor analysis time period according to the growth period meteorological conditions influencing the cigar tobacco production and by combining the related analysis results of the yield and quality of the tobacco leaves in the past year and the growth period meteorological conditions; carrying out dimensionless normalization processing on each climate factor;
taking the tobacco planting points of the high-quality cigar planting areas and the grid points of the cigar planting areas in the designated areas as different individuals of an m-dimensional space, respectively calculating the similar distance between any grid point and each tobacco planting point of the high-quality cigar planting areas, and selecting the minimum similar distance as the similar distance between the grid point and the high-quality cigar planting areas;
comparing and analyzing climate factors of the cigars in the designated area and the climate similar area of the high-quality cigar planting area by dividing similar distance grades;
determining the title of each key climate influence factor by utilizing an expert scoring, hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method according to the determined key climate influence factors; and (4) partitioning the ecological climate of the cigar tobacco leaves through a partitioning model, and partitioning the ecological climate suitability of the cigar tobacco leaves.
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| CN114723330A (en) * | 2022-05-06 | 2022-07-08 | 安徽理工大学 | Vegetation change influence factor evaluation method based on structural equation model |
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