CN114117786A - Stadium power supply system maintenance method, system, equipment and medium - Google Patents
Stadium power supply system maintenance method, system, equipment and medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power, and particularly relates to a method, a system, equipment and a medium for maintaining a power supply system of a venue. The importance evaluation and weak link identification are introduced into the low voltage grade, the venue power supply system and the terminal specific power load are used as evaluation objects, the access of emergency equipment such as UPS (uninterrupted power supply), standby power supply and the like at the important low voltage load is considered, the importance evaluation of weak link fault diagnosis is performed on the venue power supply system in a targeted manner, and the power supply reliability requirement of the load is met. And drawing a reliability curve of the element and the system based on the statistical data, and more clearly displaying the change relation of the contribution of each link to the reliability of the system along with time.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of electric power, and particularly relates to a method, a system, equipment and a medium for maintaining a power supply system of a venue.
Background
The venue power system contains a large number of components and equipment, and random failure of any component may affect the system risk level. If a power supply system fault is caused, a load power supply interruption accident occurs during the event handling period, the event process is seriously influenced, and great social influence and economic loss are caused. Therefore, in order to ensure safe and stable operation of the power supply system and meet the reliability requirement of the load, important evaluation for researching the reliability of the power supply system and carrying out fault diagnosis aiming at weak links of the system is urgently needed.
The link importance evaluation algorithm commonly adopted in engineering application comprises a simulation method and an analytic method. The analytic method obtains the system state through fault enumeration, accurately calculates the reliability index of the system through analyzing the diffusion range of each fault, and is convenient for evaluating the influence of each element in the system on the reliability of each load node. A large number of components within a complex system cannot analytically list all fault conditions. The simulation method simulates the system state through Monte Carlo sampling and other modes, further obtains the reliability index through statistics, and can clearly reflect the logic relation between the fault of each element and the system operation state.
At present, reliability evaluation and weak link identification research on a traditional power grid system are relatively complete, but low-voltage-level systems are still rarely researched, and link importance evaluation aiming at a venue power supply system is not involved.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method, a system, equipment and a medium for maintaining a power supply system of a venue, aiming at the problem that the existing reliability evaluation of low voltage level is lacked.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
in a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for maintaining a power supply system of a venue, including the following steps:
s1: according to the operation data, the topological structure and the access of an emergency power supply at an important load node of a venue power supply system, establishing a fault tree model taking single load power supply interruption as a top event aiming at all power loads in the venue power supply system;
s2: performing fault triggering time simulation on each bottom event in the fault tree model by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method, and determining the running state of a top event;
s3: calculating the importance of each element in the power supply system of the venue on the fault of each load node according to the running state of the top event;
s4: and calculating and evaluating the importance of each link of the venue power supply system according to the importance of each element in the venue power supply system to each load node fault, and selecting the link with the importance exceeding a preset value to strengthen maintenance.
Further, the step S1 includes:
s11: selecting a top event, wherein the top event set comprises any group of load power supply interruption in a power supply system;
s12: and decomposing the fault reasons step by step according to the topological structure of the power supply system of the given venue to obtain intermediate events and bottom events of the power supply system of the given venue, and constructing a standardized fault tree model according to the logical relation between the bottom events and the running states of the top events aiming at the top events corresponding to the interruption of power supply of each load.
Further, the step S1 further includes:
s13: and solving all cut sets of the fault tree model corresponding to the top event by adopting a binary decision diagram algorithm, and simplifying the cut sets to obtain a minimum cut set.
Further, the step S2 includes:
s21: randomly sampling by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain the fault triggering time of each bottom event;
s22: calculating the running state of each bottom event in the top event according to the fault triggering time;
s23: calculating the running states of all the minimal cut sets in the top event according to the running state of the bottom event;
s24: and calculating the running state of the top event according to the running state of the minimal cut set.
Further, the step S3 includes:
s31: setting the simulation running time to be analyzed;
s32: according to the simulation running time to be analyzed, counting the occurrence frequency ratio of a bottom event k when the top event k occurs due to the failure of the bottom event i, the frequency ratio of the top event k in the occurrence state and the frequency ratio of the top event k in the occurrence state when the failure rate of the bottom event i is respectively set to be 0 and 1;
s33: calculating an element importance CI, a risk contribution value RAW and a risk reduction value RRW according to the times ratio;
s34: and respectively sequencing the calculation results of the element importance CI, the risk contribution value RAW and the risk reduction value RRW, and obtaining three weak links of the corresponding top event k power supply interruption according to the three sequencing results.
Further, the method for calculating the importance in step S4 specifically includes:
s41: counting the annual load peak value of each load node;
s42: calculating a network risk contribution value and a network risk reduction value according to the annual load peak value of each load node;
s43: and respectively sequencing the network risk contribution value NRAW and the network risk reduction value NRRW, and respectively evaluating the importance of each link of the venue power supply system according to two sequencing results.
Further, according to the running state of the top event, the reliability of each element in the power supply system and the system of the venue is calculated:
setting total simulation operation time, and dividing the total simulation operation time into equal time periods;
obtaining the failure probability of the element and the top event in each time period according to the running state of the top event;
according to the fault probability, calculating the reliability of the elements and the top events along with the change of time, and drawing a reliability curve of the elements and the top events along with the change of time;
according to the reliability of the elements and the top events changing along with the time, the reliability of the venue power supply system changing along with the time is calculated, and a reliability curve of the venue power supply system changing along with the time is drawn;
and according to the change trend of the reliability of each element or system reflected by the reliability curve along with time, evaluating the effective operation life of the system, and enhancing the reliability inspection of the system or replacing an aging element to ensure the power supply reliability of the system as the reliability approaches zero or approaches to the operation life.
In a second aspect, the present invention provides a system for evaluating importance of a power supply system for a venue, comprising:
a fault tree model establishing unit: the system comprises a fault tree model, a power supply system and a power supply system, wherein the fault tree model is used for establishing a fault tree model taking single load power supply interruption as a top event aiming at all power loads in the venue power supply system according to operation data, a topological structure and access of an emergency power supply at an important load node;
monte carlo simulation unit: the fault tree simulation system is used for simulating the fault triggering time of each bottom event in the fault tree model by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method and determining the running state of a top event;
a load node importance calculation unit: the system is used for calculating the importance of each element in the power supply system of the venue on the fault of each load node according to the running state of the top event;
a system importance calculating unit: the method is used for calculating and evaluating the importance of each link of the venue power supply system according to the running state of the top event and the importance of each element in the venue power supply system to each load node fault, selecting a certain proportion of links, improving the inspection frequency and strengthening daily maintenance.
In a third aspect, the present invention provides a computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the venue power system maintenance method when executing the computer program.
In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the venue power system maintenance method.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the method comprises the steps of firstly, introducing importance evaluation and weak link identification into a low voltage grade, taking a venue power supply system and a terminal specific power load as evaluation objects, considering the access of emergency equipment such as a UPS (uninterrupted power supply), a standby power supply and the like at the important low voltage load, and carrying out importance evaluation of weak link fault diagnosis on the venue power supply system in a targeted manner to meet the power supply reliability requirement of the load;
secondly, a fault tree-Monte Carlo simulation method is adopted, the problem that the traditional fault tree analysis method can only analyze the importance of elements of a specific time section is solved, a Monte Carlo simulation method is combined, a reliability curve of the elements and the system is drawn based on statistical data, and the change relation of contribution of each link to the reliability of the system along with time is displayed more clearly.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, are included to provide a further understanding of the invention, and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate exemplary embodiments of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the invention and not to limit the invention.
In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flowchart illustrating the importance of a method for maintaining a power supply system of a venue according to the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a system for maintaining a power supply system of a venue according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the embodiments with reference to the attached drawings. It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments may be combined with each other without conflict.
The following detailed description is exemplary in nature and is intended to provide further details of the invention. Unless otherwise defined, all technical terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of exemplary embodiments according to the invention.
A typical venue power supply system considers the access of emergency equipment such as a UPS (uninterrupted power supply), a standby power supply and the like at an important low-voltage load, firstly establishes a fault tree model based on load power supply interruption, and randomly samples and simulates the fault condition of each element by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method so as to obtain the running state of the system and the elements. And calculating the reliability of the system on the basis, selecting importance evaluation indexes to quantify the contribution of each element to different loads and system faults so as to determine weak links of the system, and improving the reliability of the power supply system of the venue by means of measures such as routing inspection, element replacement and the like.
Example 1
A method for maintaining a power supply system of a venue comprises the following steps:
step 1: establishing a fault tree model, namely respectively establishing a fault tree model taking single load power supply interruption as a top event aiming at all power loads in a power supply system according to operation related data and a specific topological structure of a venue power supply system and considering access of emergency power supplies such as a UPS (uninterrupted power supply), an emergency vehicle and the like at important load nodes of the venue power supply system;
the step 1 specifically comprises the following steps:
step 11: selecting a top event, wherein the top event set comprises any group of load power supply interruption in a power supply system;
step 12: establishing a fault tree, decomposing fault reasons step by step according to a given power supply system topological structure of a venue to obtain a middle event and a bottom event of the power supply system topological structure, and establishing a standardized fault tree model according to a logical relation between the bottom event and a top event running state for a top event corresponding to each load power supply interruption, wherein the specific formula of the fault tree model is as follows:
d is a top event, Mmcs,jFor the jth intermediate event, said
The ith bottom event in the jth intermediate event, and the bottom event of the fault tree is each element in the system;
step 13: and (4) calculating the minimum cut set, solving all cut sets of the fault tree model corresponding to the top event by adopting a binary decision diagram algorithm, and simplifying the cut sets to obtain the minimum cut set.
Step 2: the top event two-state model is used for simulating the fault triggering time of each bottom event in the fault tree model by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method only considering the normal operation state and the fault state, and determining the operation state of the top event according to the logic structure of the fault tree;
the step 2 of determining the operation state of the top event by using the single Monte Carlo simulation method specifically comprises the following steps:
step 21: random sampling is carried out by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain the fault trigger time of each bottom event
The specific calculation formula is
The above-mentioned
The failure rate of the ith bottom event in the kth top event can be obtained by referring to a literature and modifying according to specific conditions; xi is in the interval [0,1 ]]A random number of (c);
step 22: fault trigger time obtained from Monte Carlo simulation
Computing running state of each bottom event in top event
The specific bottom event running state formula is
Step 23: operating state based on bottom event
Computing the run states of all minimal cut sets in the top event
The specific minimal cut set operation state formula is
In the formula
The above-mentioned
The fault trigger time of the jth minimum cut set in the kth top event;
step 24: operating conditions according to a minimal cut set
Computing the running state of a top event phik(t)；
The specific formula of the operation state of the top event is
In the formula
Said t isGD,kIs the kth top eventThe fault trigger time of (2).
The three operating states are all used in subsequent reliability indicators. The method is mainly used for counting the times of the fault state in each time period in the follow-up process.
And step 3: integrating the running states of the elements and the top events in all the simulation times in the step 2, and calculating the reliability of the power supply system of the venue and each element in the system;
the step 3 specifically comprises the following steps:
step 31: setting total simulation operation time Tmax and the equal-period division segment number T;
in order to draw the change of the reliability along with the time and obtain the effective service life, the time node corresponding to the maximum value to cover the reliability approaching zero is taken during the setting, and the reliability of the element corresponding to the minimum fault rate in the system can approach zero in the simulation time;
step 32: counting the failure probability p of the element and the top event in the simulation times of W times in total in each time periods(r) is represented by
C is mentionedrThe number of times that the object to be solved in the total W times of simulation is in an occurrence state in the r-th time period is counted;
step 33: calculating the reliability R of components and top events over times(r) is represented by
Drawing a reliability curve of the elements and the top events along with the change of time;
step 34: the reliability R (r) of the power supply system of the venue along with the change of time is calculated by the specific formula
The R isk(r) is the reliability of the kth top event, and a reliability curve of the power supply system of the venue along with the change of time is drawn;
step 35: the reliability curve is used for reflecting the change trend of the reliability of each element or system along with time so as to evaluate the effective operation life of the system, and as the reliability tends to zero or approaches to the operation life, the reliability inspection of the system needs to be enhanced or aging elements need to be replaced so as to guarantee the power supply reliability of the system.
And 4, step 4: setting simulation running time to be analyzed, and evaluating the importance of each element in the power supply system of the venue on the fault occurrence of each load node;
the evaluation of the importance of the elements under the power supply interruption fault tree model of the single load node in the step 4 specifically comprises the following steps:
step 41: considering the contribution degree of each element fault to the top event fault, and selecting an element importance degree CI, a risk contribution value RAW and a risk reduction value RRW as indexes;
step 42: calculating importance index CI of bottom event i fault to top event k faultk(i)、RAWk(i)、RRWk(i)，
The concrete formula is
The above-mentioned
The occurrence frequency of the bottom event is compared when the failure of the top event k is caused by the failure of the bottom event i in the total simulation time; said QGD,kThe number of times of the top event k in the occurrence state in the total simulation time is the ratio; the above-mentioned
And
setting the failure rate of a bottom event i to be 0 and 1 respectively in the total simulation time, and comparing the number of times that a top event k is in an occurrence state;
and sequencing the calculation results from big to small in sequence, and obtaining three weak links of the corresponding top event k power supply interruption according to the three sequencing results.
And 5: setting simulation running time to be analyzed, carrying out importance evaluation of fault diagnosis aiming at weak links of the system, and reflecting the influence degree of basic elements on the fault of the whole power supply system; the number of fault tree models of the whole power supply system is the number of loads, and system faults are defined as any group of load faults, namely the minimum value of load fault time is taken as the system fault time.
The step 5 specifically comprises the following steps:
step 51: selecting a network risk contribution value NRAW and a network risk reduction value NRRW as element importance evaluation indexes by taking annual load peak values of all load nodes as ratio coefficients;
step 52: calculating the importance evaluation indexes NRAW (i) and NRRW (i) of each element i to the reliability of the venue power supply system by the specific formula
Said KiThe annual load peak value of the ith load node; and respectively sequencing the network risk contribution value NRAW and the network risk reduction value NRRW, and respectively evaluating the importance of each link of the venue power supply system according to two sequencing results.
Through the five steps, the reliability calculation and the weak link importance evaluation of the power supply system of the venue can be completed
Step 53: and selecting links 30% of the importance, increasing the inspection frequency 1/3 and enhancing daily maintenance.
Example 2
An importance evaluation system for a venue power supply system, comprising:
a fault tree model establishing unit: the system comprises a fault tree model, a power supply system and a power supply system, wherein the fault tree model is used for establishing a fault tree model taking single load power supply interruption as a top event aiming at all power loads in the venue power supply system according to operation data, a topological structure and access of an emergency power supply at an important load node;
monte carlo simulation unit: the fault tree simulation system is used for simulating the fault triggering time of each bottom event in the fault tree model by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method and determining the running state of a top event;
a reliability calculation unit: the system is used for calculating the reliability of the power supply system of the venue and each element in the system according to the running state of the top event;
a load node importance calculation unit: the system is used for calculating the importance of each element in the power supply system of the venue on the fault of each load node according to the running state of the top event;
a system importance calculating unit: and the method is used for calculating and evaluating the importance of each link of the venue power supply system according to the running state of the top event and the importance of each element in the venue power supply system to each load node fault.
Example 3
A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the venue power system maintenance method of embodiment 1 when executing the computer program.
Example 4
A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the venue power system maintenance method of embodiment 1.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the invention may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential characteristics thereof. The embodiments disclosed above are therefore to be considered in all respects as illustrative and not restrictive. All changes which come within the scope of or equivalence to the invention are intended to be embraced therein.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for maintaining a power supply system of a venue is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: according to the operation data, the topological structure and the access of an emergency power supply at an important load node of a venue power supply system, establishing a fault tree model taking single load power supply interruption as a top event aiming at all power loads in the venue power supply system;
s2: performing fault triggering time simulation on each bottom event in the fault tree model by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method, and determining the running state of a top event;
s3: calculating the importance of each element in the power supply system of the venue on the fault of each load node according to the running state of the top event;
s4: and calculating and evaluating the importance of each link of the venue power supply system according to the importance of each element in the venue power supply system to each load node fault, and selecting the link with the importance exceeding a preset value to strengthen maintenance.
2. The venue power system maintenance method according to claim 1, wherein the step S1 includes:
s11: selecting a top event, wherein the top event set comprises any group of load power supply interruption in a power supply system;
s12: and decomposing the fault reasons step by step according to the topological structure of the power supply system of the given venue to obtain intermediate events and bottom events of the power supply system of the given venue, and constructing a standardized fault tree model according to the logical relation between the bottom events and the running states of the top events aiming at the top events corresponding to the interruption of power supply of each load.
3. The venue power system maintenance method of claim 2, wherein the step S1 further comprises:
s13: and solving all cut sets of the fault tree model corresponding to the top event by adopting a binary decision diagram algorithm, and simplifying the cut sets to obtain a minimum cut set.
4. The venue power system maintenance method according to claim 3, wherein the step S2 includes:
s21: randomly sampling by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain the fault triggering time of each bottom event;
s22: calculating the running state of each bottom event in the top event according to the fault triggering time;
s23: calculating the running states of all the minimal cut sets in the top event according to the running state of the bottom event;
s24: and calculating the running state of the top event according to the running state of the minimal cut set.
5. The venue power system maintenance method according to claim 1, wherein the step S3 includes:
s31: setting the simulation running time to be analyzed;
s32: according to the simulation running time to be analyzed, counting the occurrence frequency ratio of a bottom event k when the top event k occurs due to the failure of the bottom event i, the frequency ratio of the top event k in the occurrence state and the frequency ratio of the top event k in the occurrence state when the failure rate of the bottom event i is respectively set to be 0 and 1;
s33: calculating an element importance CI, a risk contribution value RAW and a risk reduction value RRW according to the times ratio;
s34: and respectively sequencing the calculation results of the element importance CI, the risk contribution value RAW and the risk reduction value RRW, and obtaining three weak links of the corresponding top event k power supply interruption according to the three sequencing results.
6. The venue power system maintenance method according to claim 1, wherein the importance degree calculating method in the step S4 is specifically as follows:
s41: counting the annual load peak value of each load node;
s42: calculating a network risk contribution value and a network risk reduction value according to the annual load peak value of each load node;
s43: and respectively sequencing the network risk contribution value NRAW and the network risk reduction value NRRW, and respectively evaluating the importance of each link of the venue power supply system according to two sequencing results.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the reliability of the venue power system and components within the venue power system is calculated based on the operating status of the event:
setting total simulation operation time, and dividing the total simulation operation time into equal time periods;
obtaining the failure probability of the element and the top event in each time period according to the running state of the top event;
according to the fault probability, calculating the reliability of the elements and the top events along with the change of time, and drawing a reliability curve of the elements and the top events along with the change of time;
according to the reliability of the elements and the top events changing along with the time, the reliability of the venue power supply system changing along with the time is calculated, and a reliability curve of the venue power supply system changing along with the time is drawn;
and according to the change trend of the reliability of each element or system reflected by the reliability curve along with time, evaluating the effective operation life of the system, and enhancing the reliability inspection of the system or replacing an aging element to ensure the power supply reliability of the system as the reliability approaches zero or approaches to the operation life.
8. A venue power system maintenance system, comprising:
a fault tree model establishing unit: the system comprises a fault tree model, a power supply system and a power supply system, wherein the fault tree model is used for establishing a fault tree model taking single load power supply interruption as a top event aiming at all power loads in the venue power supply system according to operation data, a topological structure and access of an emergency power supply at an important load node;
monte carlo simulation unit: the fault tree simulation system is used for simulating the fault triggering time of each bottom event in the fault tree model by adopting a Monte Carlo simulation method and determining the running state of a top event;
a load node importance calculation unit: the system is used for calculating the importance of each element in the power supply system of the venue on the fault of each load node according to the running state of the top event;
a system importance calculating unit: the method is used for calculating and evaluating the importance of each link of the venue power supply system according to the running state of the top event and the importance of each element in the venue power supply system to each load node fault, selecting a certain proportion of links, improving the inspection frequency and strengthening daily maintenance.
9. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor, when executing the computer program, implements the venue power system maintenance method of any of claims 1-7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, storing a computer program, wherein the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the venue power system maintenance method of any of claims 1 to 7.
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| CN116542655A (en) * | 2023-07-04 | 2023-08-04 | 北京智盟信通科技有限公司 | Event tree-based power transformation equipment fault mechanism deduction method |
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