CN114050572A - Method, device, equipment and medium for analyzing reliability of venue power supply system - Google Patents
Method, device, equipment and medium for analyzing reliability of venue power supply system Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/007—Arrangements for selectively connecting the load or loads to one or several among a plurality of power lines or power sources
- H02J3/0073—Arrangements for selectively connecting the load or loads to one or several among a plurality of power lines or power sources for providing alternative feeding paths between load and source when the main path fails, e.g. transformers, busbars
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J9/00—Circuit arrangements for emergency or stand-by power supply, e.g. for emergency lighting
- H02J9/02—Circuit arrangements for emergency or stand-by power supply, e.g. for emergency lighting in which an auxiliary distribution system and its associated lamps are brought into service
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J9/00—Circuit arrangements for emergency or stand-by power supply, e.g. for emergency lighting
- H02J9/04—Circuit arrangements for emergency or stand-by power supply, e.g. for emergency lighting in which the distribution system is disconnected from the normal source and connected to a standby source
- H02J9/06—Circuit arrangements for emergency or stand-by power supply, e.g. for emergency lighting in which the distribution system is disconnected from the normal source and connected to a standby source with automatic change-over, e.g. UPS systems
- H02J9/062—Circuit arrangements for emergency or stand-by power supply, e.g. for emergency lighting in which the distribution system is disconnected from the normal source and connected to a standby source with automatic change-over, e.g. UPS systems for AC powered loads
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
- H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
- Y02B70/00—Technologies for an efficient end-user side electric power management and consumption
- Y02B70/30—Systems integrating technologies related to power network operation and communication or information technologies for improving the carbon footprint of the management of residential or tertiary loads, i.e. smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the buildings sector, including also the last stages of power distribution and the control, monitoring or operating management systems at local level
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S20/00—Management or operation of end-user stationary applications or the last stages of power distribution; Controlling, monitoring or operating thereof
- Y04S20/20—End-user application control systems
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- Supply And Distribution Of Alternating Current (AREA)
Abstract
The invention belongs to the technical field of venue power supply, and particularly discloses a method, a device, equipment and a medium for analyzing the reliability of a venue power supply system. The method comprises the following steps: s1, establishing a power supply system structure diagram for continuously and reliably supplying power to the load under different scene conditions; s2, judging an internal logic relationship according to the power supply system structure diagram, introducing a dynamic logic gate, and establishing a dynamic fault tree model; s3, establishing a Markov model according to the Markov theory and the dynamic fault tree model and calculating the steady-state probability of each state of the model; s4, performing time sequence state sequence simulation on the Markov model and the dynamic fault tree model by adopting a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, and determining the running state of the power supply system; and S5, calculating a reliability evaluation index according to the running state of the power supply system, and evaluating the reliability of the power supply system. The problem that the state dimension of the Markov model rapidly rises under multi-order faults is solved, and the Markov model has strong adaptability and problem solving capability.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of venue power supply, and particularly relates to a method, a device, equipment and a medium for analyzing the reliability of a venue power supply system.
Background
With the rapid development of economy and the continuous improvement of comprehensive national force, large-scale venues, exhibition centers, meeting places and public areas are taken as the main bodies of social activities, the major role of ensuring the satisfaction and success of the activities is played, the power supply reliability of the large-scale venues, the exhibition centers, the public areas and the public areas is directly related to social influence, and immeasurable economic loss can be generated when power failure accidents occur during the activities. Therefore, there is a need to research a scientific and reasonable reliability evaluation method for complex redundant power supply systems in stadium, which considers various power supply safeguard measures, so as to ensure safe and stable operation of the power supply system and reliable power supply of the terminal load.
The power supply guarantee measures of the venue power supply system often relate to the problems of complex logic structures, dynamic sequence characteristics and component dependency relations in systems such as UPS, standby power supply and element standby at important low-voltage loads. In engineering application, a Markov method is commonly adopted to obtain the system state so as to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of the system, but a complex system comprises a large number of elements, so that the state dimension of the Markov chain under multi-order faults is sharply increased. In addition, the dynamic change process of the system and the influence of actions such as maintenance and fault on the fault characteristics of the system need to be intensively researched. The traditional static fault tree analysis method adopts Boolean logic gates to represent the combination relation among fault events, and does not consider the dynamic dependency relation among the events. The venue power supply system considering various power supply guarantee measures has the solving problems of dynamic time history, interaction among components, system state division and the like, and the dynamic fault tree considers the dynamic characteristics among fault events on the basis of the traditional fault tree analysis method, so that the applicability of system reliability analysis is enhanced.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a reliability analysis method, a device, equipment and a medium for a power supply system of a venue, which realize the reliability analysis and evaluation of the power supply system of the venue by considering the power supply safeguard measures such as the system sequence correlation, the repairability, the spare condition of elements, an emergency power supply system and the like and the dynamic characteristics of the power supply safeguard measures.
The invention is realized by adopting the following technical scheme:
in a first aspect, a method for analyzing reliability of a power supply system of a venue includes the following steps:
s1, establishing a power supply system structure diagram for continuously and reliably supplying power to the load under different scene conditions according to the relevant operating data and load requirements of the venue;
s2, judging an internal logic relationship according to the power supply system structure diagram, introducing a dynamic logic gate, and establishing a dynamic fault tree model taking a load power supply interruption fault as a top item;
establishing a Markov model according to a 10kV upper power supply dynamic subtree module in a dynamic fault tree model, and calculating the steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model;
s4, performing time sequence state sequence simulation on the Markov model and the dynamic fault tree model based on the obtained steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model by adopting a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, and determining the running state of the power supply system;
and S5, calculating a reliability evaluation index according to the running state of the power supply system, thereby evaluating the reliability of the power supply system.
The invention is further improved in that: the power supply system comprises a plurality of loads, a 10kV upper-level power supply system, a 0.4kV standby power supply loop, a 0.4kV emergency power supply loop and an Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS);
the plurality of loads comprise a load A1, a load A2, a load A3, a load A4, a load A5 and a load A6;
the upper-level power supply system comprises two 10kV mains supply main power supplies S1 and S2 and one 10kV mains supply auxiliary power supply S3;
the 10kV commercial power spare power supply S3 is connected with a 10kV bus B3 through a feeder L3 and a breaker Q3;
the 10kV mains supply main power supply S1 is connected with a 10kV bus B1 through a feeder L1 and a breaker Q1;
the 10kV mains supply main power supply S2 is connected with a 10kV bus B2 through a feeder L2 and a breaker Q2;
the 10kV bus B3 is connected with the 10kV bus B1 through a circuit breaker Q4;
the 10kV bus B3 is connected with the 10kV bus B2 through a circuit breaker Q5;
the 10kV bus B1 is connected with a converter T1;
the 10kV bus B2 is connected with a converter T2;
the converter T1 is connected with a 0.4kV bus B4 through a feeder L4 and a breaker Q6;
the converter T2 is connected with a 0.4kV bus B5 through a feeder L5 and a breaker Q7;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with the 0.4kV bus B5 through a circuit breaker Q8;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with a load A2 through a feeder L11 and a breaker Q16;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS4 through a feeder L10 and a breaker Q15;
the 0.4kV bus B5 is connected with a load A3 through a feeder L13 and a breaker Q18;
the 0.4kV bus B5 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS3 through a feeder L12 and a breaker Q17;
the dual-power conversion device ATS4 is connected with a load A6 through a feeder line L19;
the 0.4kV standby power supply loop comprises two standby power supplies G1 and G2;
the standby power supply G1 is connected with a bus B6 through a breaker Q9;
the standby power supply G2 is connected with a bus B6 through a breaker Q10;
the bus bar B6 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS1 through a breaker Q11 and a feeder L7;
the 0.4kV bus B5 is connected with a dual-power conversion device ATS1 through a feeder line L6;
the dual power supply conversion device ATS1 is connected with a standby bus section B7;
the standby bus section B7 is connected with a double power supply conversion device ATS4 through a feeder L14 and a breaker Q19;
the spare bus-section B7 is connected to a load a4 via a feeder L15 and a breaker Q20;
the 0.4kV emergency power supply loop comprises two emergency power supplies G3 and G4;
the emergency power supply G3 is connected with a bus B8 through a breaker Q13;
the emergency power supply G4 is connected with a bus B8 through a breaker Q12;
the bus bar B8 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS2 through a breaker Q14 and a feeder L9;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with a dual-power conversion device ATS2 through a feeder line L8;
the dual power supply conversion device ATS2 is connected with a standby bus section B9;
the standby bus section B9 is connected with a double power supply conversion device ATS3 through a feeder L16 and a breaker Q21;
the spare bus-section B9 is connected to a load a1 via a feeder L176 and a breaker Q22;
the uninterruptible power supply UPS is disposed between the dual power transfer device ATS3 and the load a 5.
The invention is further improved in that: the S2 specifically includes the following steps:
s21, selecting a dynamic fault tree model top event, and taking any one of loads A1, A2, A3, A4, A5 or A6 as a top event K;
s22, determining a 10kV upper power supply dynamic subtree module, and taking a 10kV mains supply main power supply S1, a breaker Q1 and a feeder line fault L1 as a bottom event P1; a 10kV mains supply main power supply S2, a circuit breaker Q2 and a feeder fault L2 serve as a bottom event P2; a mains supply spare power source S3 breaker Q3 and feeder fault L3 serve as a bottom event P3;
s23, determining a 0.4kV standby power supply loop static subtree module, and taking a standby power supply G1, a standby power supply G2, a bus bar B6, a double-power-supply conversion device ATS1, a standby bus section B7, a circuit breaker connected with the standby bus section B7 and a feeder line fault loop fault as a bottom event P4;
determining a 0.4kV emergency power supply loop static subtree module, and taking an emergency power supply G3, an emergency power supply G4, a bus bar B8, a dual-power conversion device ATS2, an emergency bus section B9 and circuit breaker and feeder fault loop faults connected with the emergency bus section B9 as a bottom event P5;
s24, taking fault events except bottom events P1, P2, P3, P4 and P5 in the power supply system as bottom triggering events P6;
s25, taking an uninterrupted power supply UPS, a dual power supply conversion device ATS3, a dual power supply conversion device ATS4 and circuit breakers and feeder line faults connected with the same as a bottom event P7;
and S26, introducing dynamic logic gates to establish a power supply system dynamic fault tree model based on bottom events P1-P7.
The invention is further improved in that: the dynamic logic gate includes an HSP hot spare gate closed with FDEP functionality.
The invention is further improved in that: the S3 specifically includes the following steps:
s31, establishing a Markov model according to a 10kV upper power supply dynamic subtree module in the dynamic fault tree model, and drawing a Markov state space diagram according to the Markov model;
s32, establishing a state transition matrix A according to the Markov state space diagram:
in the formula, λ12、λ23、λ24、λ35And λ45Fault rates for each state of the Markov model; gamma ray12、γ23、γ24、γ35And gamma45The restoration rate of each state of the Markov model is obtained;
s33, calculating a linear algebraic equation system according to the state transition matrix A:
wherein, P is the steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model, and P ═ { PiI-1, 2,3,4,5} wherein p5Is the failure rate of the markov model.
The invention is further improved in that: in S4, the method specifically includes the following steps:
s41, simulating a Markov model and a sampling time sequence of bottom events P3, P4, P5, P6 and P7 by adopting a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, wherein the bottom event BiThe j-th sampling time is specifically defined as
In the formula
And
respectively the failure sampling time and the repair sampling time of the bottom event Bi at the jth time; the above-mentioned
And
is in the interval of [0,1 ]]A random number of (c); said Fi,op -1And Fi,Fa -1A repair distribution function and a failure distribution function for the ith bottom event;
bottom event BiTime t of sampling of the sequencei,j：
In the formula, Tmax isMaximum simulation time;
bottom event BiTime series t of samplesi：
ti＝{ti,1,ti,2,L,ti,j}。
S42, calculating the maximum simulation time T of each bottom eventmaxInner time sequence state sequence, bottom event BiThe running state function:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
bottom event BiIn a sampling time interval tsim∈[ti,j-1,ti,j) The operating state of the internal combustion engine; said t issimFor simulating time
S43, according to bottom event BiTime series t of samplesiObtaining the maximum simulation time TmaxThe sampling time sequence t' of all bottom events is arranged in ascending order to obtain
t′＝{t′1,t′2,L,t′m}；
Wherein 0 ═ t'0≤t′1≤t′2≤L≤t′m≤Tmax；
S44, calculating the running state time sequence in each sampling time interval and recording the normal running time t of the systemOp,lAnd number of times AlTime to repair failure tFa,lAnd the number of failures Rl；
The dynamic fault tree structure function is:
the philFor the first simulation time interval ti,j-1,ti,j) The operating state of the internal system;
running state time series:
Φ＝{Φ1,Φ2,L,Φl}
the first simulation time interval tsim∈[ti,j-1,ti,j)；
The running state recording formula is
In the formula, tFa，lIndicates the time of failure recovery, tOp，lDenotes the normal running time, RlIndicates the number of times of failure recovery, AlIndicating the number of productive runs, and l indicates the number of the ith state change of the power supply system in a single simulation of the state time sequence.
The invention is further improved in that: the S5 specifically includes the following steps:
s51, calculating the cumulative failure probability as a reliability evaluation index:
wherein N is the simulation time period tsimThe failure frequency within t is less than or equal to t; t is a variable, and the time change curve of the accumulated fault rate is drawn by changing the size of t;
s52, calculating the average repair time and the average failure-free time as reliability evaluation indexes;
the average repair time tMTTR：
Wherein R is the maximum simulation time TmaxThe number of internal fault repairs;
the mean time to failure tMTBF：
Wherein A is the maximum simulation time TmaxThe number of normal operations in the system;
s53, calculating the system steady state availability for evaluating the reliability level of the long-term operation of the venue power supply system, and taking the system steady state availability A (∞):
in a second aspect, an apparatus for analyzing reliability of a power supply system of a venue includes:
a power supply system establishment module: the power supply system structure chart is used for establishing a power supply system structure chart for continuously and reliably supplying power to the load under the condition of ensuring different scenes according to relevant operating data and load requirements of the venue;
the dynamic fault tree model building module comprises: the dynamic fault tree model is used for judging the internal logic relationship according to the power supply system structure diagram, introducing a dynamic logic gate and establishing a dynamic fault tree model taking a load power supply interruption fault as a top item;
a steady state probability calculation module: for: calculating the steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model according to the Markov theory and the dynamic fault tree model;
the power supply system running state confirmation module: the method is used for carrying out time sequence state sequence simulation on the Markov model and the dynamic fault tree model through a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the running state of the power supply system
The power supply system reliability evaluation module: and the reliability evaluation index is calculated according to the running state of the power supply system, so that the reliability of the power supply system is evaluated.
In a third aspect, a computer device includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and the processor implements a reliability analysis method for a power supply system of a venue as described above when executing the computer program.
In a fourth aspect, a computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, which when executed by a processor, is a method for reliability analysis of a power supply system for a venue as described above.
Compared with the prior art, the invention at least comprises the following beneficial effects:
1. the invention provides a power supply system reliability evaluation model integrating fault tree analysis and a Markov model, which considers the characteristics of system sequence correlation, repairability, spare part property and the like, adopts a time sequence Monte Carlo simulation method to solve the problem that the state dimension of the Markov model rapidly rises under multi-order faults, and has strong adaptability and problem solving capability;
2. the reliability evaluation object is expanded to the terminal user, the power supply guarantee measures of low-voltage level power distribution layers such as element standby condition in a venue power supply system, an emergency power supply system, an Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) and the like are mainly considered, and the pertinence of the reliability analysis evaluation method of the venue power supply system is improved;
3. the invention introduces the dynamic logic gate to embody the complicated logic relation and dynamic characteristics in the power supply guarantee system, performs the relevant dynamic analysis of the venue power supply system, more clearly and intuitively describes the dynamic behavior of the system failure, and improves the applicability of the reliability analysis method of the venue power supply system.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, are included to provide a further understanding of the invention, and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate exemplary embodiments of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the invention and not to limit the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of a power supply system in a method for analyzing reliability of a power supply system of a venue according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a dynamic fault tree model in the reliability analysis method for a power supply system of a venue according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of an HSP hot spare gate in the method for analyzing reliability of a venue power supply system according to the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a Markov state space diagram of an HSP hot spare gate in a method for analyzing reliability of a venue power supply system according to the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating a method for analyzing reliability of a power supply system of a venue according to the present invention;
fig. 6 is a block diagram of a reliability analysis apparatus for a power supply system of a venue according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the embodiments with reference to the attached drawings. It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments may be combined with each other without conflict.
The following detailed description is exemplary in nature and is intended to provide further details of the invention. Unless otherwise defined, all technical terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of exemplary embodiments according to the invention.
Example 1
As shown in fig. 5, a method for analyzing reliability of a power supply system of a venue includes the following steps:
s1, establishing a power supply system structure diagram for continuously and reliably supplying power to the load under different scene conditions according to the relevant operating data and load requirements of the venue;
s2, judging an internal logic relationship according to the power supply system structure diagram, introducing a dynamic logic gate, and establishing a dynamic fault tree model taking a load power supply interruption fault as a top item;
s3, establishing a Markov model according to a 10kV upper power supply dynamic subtree module in a dynamic fault tree model, and calculating the steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model;
s4, performing time sequence state sequence simulation on the Markov model and the dynamic fault tree model based on the obtained steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model by adopting a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, and determining the running state of the power supply system;
and S5, calculating a reliability evaluation index according to the running state of the power supply system, and evaluating the reliability of the power supply system.
As shown in fig. 1, the power supply system includes a plurality of loads, a 10kV upper power supply system, a 0.4kV standby power supply loop, a 0.4kV emergency power supply loop, and an uninterruptible power supply UPS;
the plurality of loads comprise a load A1, a load A2, a load A3, a load A4, a load A5 and a load A6;
the upper power supply system comprises two 10kV mains supply main power supplies S1 and S2 and one 10kV mains supply auxiliary power supply S3;
a 10kV commercial power spare power supply S3 is connected with a 10kV bus B3 through a feeder L3 and a breaker Q3;
a 10kV mains supply main power supply S1 is connected with a 10kV bus B1 through a feeder L1 and a breaker Q1;
a 10kV mains supply main power supply S2 is connected with a 10kV bus B2 through a feeder L2 and a breaker Q2;
the 10kV bus B3 is connected with the 10kV bus B1 through a circuit breaker Q4;
the 10kV bus B3 is connected with the 10kV bus B2 through a circuit breaker Q5;
the 10kV bus B1 is connected with the converter T1;
the 10kV bus B2 is connected with the converter T2;
the converter T1 is connected with a 0.4kV bus B4 through a feeder L4 and a breaker Q6;
the converter T2 is connected with a 0.4kV bus B5 through a feeder L5 and a breaker Q7;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with the 0.4kV bus B5 through a circuit breaker Q8;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with a load A2 through a feeder L11 and a breaker Q16;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS4 through a feeder L10 and a breaker Q15;
the 0.4kV bus B5 is connected with a load A3 through a feeder L13 and a breaker Q18;
the 0.4kV bus B5 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS3 through a feeder L12 and a breaker Q17;
the dual power supply conversion device ATS4 is connected with a load A6 through a feeder line L19;
the 0.4kV standby power supply loop comprises two standby power supplies G1 and G2;
the standby power supply G1 is connected with the bus B6 through a breaker Q9;
the standby power supply G2 is connected with the bus B6 through a breaker Q10;
the bus bar B6 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS1 through a breaker Q11 and a feeder L7;
the 0.4kV bus B5 is connected with a dual-power conversion device ATS1 through a feeder line L6;
the dual power supply conversion device ATS1 is connected with the standby bus section B7;
the standby bus section B7 is connected with a double power supply conversion device ATS4 through a feeder L14 and a breaker Q19;
the spare bus-section B7 is connected to a load a4 via a feeder L15 and a breaker Q20;
the 0.4kV emergency power supply loop comprises two emergency power supplies G3 and G4;
the emergency power supply G3 is connected with the bus B8 through a breaker Q13;
the emergency power supply G4 is connected with the bus B8 through a breaker Q12;
the bus bar B8 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS2 through a breaker Q14 and a feeder L9;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with a dual-power conversion device ATS2 through a feeder line L8;
the dual power supply conversion device ATS2 is connected with the standby bus section B9;
the standby bus section B9 is connected with a double power supply conversion device ATS3 through a feeder L16 and a breaker Q21;
the spare bus-section B9 is connected to a load a1 via a feeder L176 and a breaker Q22;
the uninterruptible power supply UPS is provided between the dual power source transfer device ATS3 and the load a 5.
The 10kV power supply is powered by at least two relatively independent upper-level substations, and an operation scheme that two main power supplies work simultaneously is adopted;
when the power supply of the 10kV upper-level power supply is interrupted due to a fault, a power supply source is switched to supply power for a standby load by an ATS 1;
when the power supply of the 10kV upper-level power supply is interrupted due to a fault, the transfer switch ATS2 supplies power for the emergency load;
the load adopts an Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) and a double-power-supply end switching power supply mode, so that zero switching of power supply conversion is realized, and the requirement of high reliability of the load is met.
As shown in fig. 2, the dynamic fault tree model S2 specifically includes the following steps:
s21, selecting a dynamic fault tree model top event, and taking any one of loads A1, A2, A3, A4, A5 or A6 as a top event K;
s22, determining a 10kV upper power supply dynamic subtree module, and taking a 10kV mains supply main power supply S1, a breaker Q1 and a feeder line fault L1 as a bottom event P1; a 10kV mains supply main power supply S2, a circuit breaker Q2 and a feeder fault L2 serve as a bottom event P2; a mains supply spare power source S3 breaker Q3 and feeder fault L3 serve as a bottom event P3;
s23, determining a 0.4kV standby power supply loop static subtree module, and taking a standby power supply G1, a standby power supply G2, a bus bar B6, a double-power-supply conversion device ATS1, a standby bus section B7, a circuit breaker connected with the standby bus section B7 and a feeder line fault loop fault as a bottom event P4;
determining a 0.4kV emergency power supply loop static subtree module, and taking an emergency power supply G3, an emergency power supply G4, a bus bar B8, a dual-power conversion device ATS2, an emergency bus section B9 and circuit breaker and feeder fault loop faults connected with the emergency bus section B9 as a bottom event P5;
s24, taking fault events except bottom events P1, P2, P3, P4 and P5 in the power supply system as bottom triggering events P6;
s25, taking an uninterrupted power supply UPS, a dual power supply conversion device ATS3, a dual power supply conversion device ATS4 and circuit breakers and feeder line faults connected with the same as a bottom event P7;
and S26, introducing dynamic logic gates to establish a power supply system dynamic fault tree model based on bottom events P1-P7.
The dynamic logic gate includes an HSP hot spare gate closed with FDEP functionality.
A schematic diagram of a hot spare door with a common spare part is shown in fig. 3, and the spare part of two hot spare doors with the common spare part can replace any fault part and convert the fault part into a Markov state space diagram shown in fig. 4;
s3 specifically includes the following steps:
s31, establishing a Markov model according to a 10kV upper power supply dynamic subtree module in the dynamic fault tree model, and drawing a Markov state space diagram according to the Markov model, as shown in figure 4;
s32, establishing a state transition matrix A according to the Markov state space diagram:
in the formula, λ12、λ23、λ24、λ35And λ45Fault rates for each state of the Markov model; gamma ray12、γ23、γ24、γ35And gamma45The restoration rate of each state of the Markov model is obtained;
s33, calculating a linear algebraic equation system according to the state transition matrix A:
wherein, P is the steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model, and P ═ { PiI-1, 2,3,4,5 are the steady-state probabilities for each state of the Markov model, respectively, where p5Is the failure rate of the markov model.
In S4, the method specifically includes the following steps:
s41, simulating a Markov model and a sampling time sequence of bottom events P3, P4, P5, P6 and P7 by adopting a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, wherein the bottom event BiAt the j-th samplingThe specific formula is
In the formula
And
respectively the failure sampling time and the repair sampling time of the bottom event Bi at the jth time;
and
is in the interval of [0,1 ]]A random number of (c); fi,Op -1And Fi,Fa -1A repair distribution function and a failure distribution function for the ith bottom event;
bottom event BiTime t of sampling of the sequencei,j：
In the formula, Tmax isMaximum simulation time;
bottom event BiTime series t of samplesi：
ti＝{ti,1,ti,2,L,ti,j}。
S42, calculating the maximum simulation time T of each bottom eventmaxInner time sequence state sequence, bottom event BiThe running state function:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
bottom event BiIn a sampling time interval tsim∈[ti,j-1,ti,j) The operating state of the internal combustion engine; t is tsimFor simulating time
S43, according to bottom event BiTime series t of samplesiObtaining the maximum simulation time TmaxThe sampling time sequence t' of all bottom events is arranged in ascending order to obtain
t′＝{t′1,t′2,L,t′m}；
Wherein 0 ═ t'0≤t′1≤t′2≤L≤t′m≤Tmax；
S44, calculating the running state time sequence in each sampling time interval and recording the normal running time t of the systemOp,lAnd number of times AlTime to repair failure tFa,lAnd the number of failures Rl；
The dynamic fault tree structure function is:
Φlfor the first simulation time interval ti,j-1,ti,j) The operating state of the internal system;
running state time series:
Φ＝{Φ1,Φ2,L,Φl}
the first simulation time interval tsim∈[ti,j-1,ti,j)；
The running state recording formula is
In the formula, tFa，lIndicates the time of failure recovery, tOp，lDenotes the normal running time, RlIndicates the number of times of failure recovery, AlIndicating the number of productive runs, and l indicates the number of the ith state change of the power supply system in a single simulation of the state time sequence.
S5 specifically includes the following steps:
s51, calculating the cumulative failure probability as a reliability evaluation index:
wherein N is the simulation time period tsimThe failure frequency within t is less than or equal to t; t is a variable, and the time change curve of the accumulated fault rate is drawn by changing the size of t;
s52, calculating the average repair time and the average failure-free time as reliability evaluation indexes;
mean time to repair tMTTR：
Wherein R is the maximum simulation time TmaxThe number of internal fault repairs;
mean time to failure tMTBF：
Wherein A is the maximum simulation time TmaxThe number of normal operations in the system;
s53, calculating the system steady state availability for evaluating the reliability level of the long-term operation of the venue power supply system, and taking the system steady state availability A (∞):
example 2
As shown in fig. 6, an apparatus for analyzing reliability of a power supply system of a venue includes:
a power supply system establishment module: the power supply system structure chart is used for establishing a power supply system structure chart for continuously and reliably supplying power to the load under the condition of ensuring different scenes according to relevant operating data and load requirements of the venue;
the dynamic fault tree model building module comprises: the dynamic fault tree model is used for judging the internal logic relationship according to the power supply system structure diagram, introducing a dynamic logic gate and establishing a dynamic fault tree model taking a load power supply interruption fault as a top item;
a steady state probability calculation module: for: calculating the steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model according to the Markov theory and the dynamic fault tree model;
the power supply system running state confirmation module: is used for carrying out time sequence state sequence simulation on the Markov model and the dynamic fault tree model by a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the running state of the power supply system
The power supply system reliability evaluation module: and the reliability evaluation index is calculated according to the running state of the power supply system, so that the reliability of the power supply system is evaluated.
Example 3
A computer device comprises a memory, a processor and a computer program which is stored in the memory and can run on the processor, and the reliability analysis method of the power supply system of the venue is realized when the processor executes the computer program.
Example 4
A computer-readable storage medium, in which a computer program is stored, the computer program being executed by a processor, the method for analyzing reliability of a power supply system for a venue as described above.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that the invention may be embodied in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential characteristics thereof. The embodiments disclosed above are therefore to be considered in all respects as illustrative and not restrictive. All changes which come within the scope of or equivalence to the invention are intended to be embraced therein.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.
Claims (10)
1. A reliability analysis method for a power supply system of a venue is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, establishing a power supply system structure diagram for continuously and reliably supplying power to the load under different scene conditions according to the relevant operating data and load requirements of the venue;
s2, judging an internal logic relationship according to the power supply system structure diagram, introducing a dynamic logic gate, and establishing a dynamic fault tree model taking a load power supply interruption fault as a top item;
s3, establishing a Markov model according to a 10kV upper power supply dynamic subtree module in a dynamic fault tree model, and calculating the steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model;
s4, performing time sequence state sequence simulation on the Markov model and the dynamic fault tree model based on the obtained steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model by adopting a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, and determining the running state of the power supply system;
and S5, calculating a reliability evaluation index according to the running state of the power supply system, thereby evaluating the reliability of the power supply system.
2. The reliability analysis method for the power supply system of the venue according to claim 1, wherein the power supply system comprises a plurality of loads, a 10kV upper power supply system, a 0.4kV backup power supply loop, a 0.4kV emergency power supply loop and an Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS);
the plurality of loads comprise a load A1, a load A2, a load A3, a load A4, a load A5 and a load A6;
the upper-level power supply system comprises two 10kV mains supply main power supplies S1 and S2 and one 10kV mains supply auxiliary power supply S3;
the 10kV commercial power spare power supply S3 is connected with a 10kV bus B3 through a feeder L3 and a breaker Q3;
the 10kV mains supply main power supply S1 is connected with a 10kV bus B1 through a feeder L1 and a breaker Q1;
the 10kV mains supply main power supply S2 is connected with a 10kV bus B2 through a feeder L2 and a breaker Q2;
the 10kV bus B3 is connected with the 10kV bus B1 through a circuit breaker Q4;
the 10kV bus B3 is connected with the 10kV bus B2 through a circuit breaker Q5;
the 10kV bus B1 is connected with a converter T1;
the 10kV bus B2 is connected with a converter T2;
the converter T1 is connected with a 0.4kV bus B4 through a feeder L4 and a breaker Q6;
the converter T2 is connected with a 0.4kV bus B5 through a feeder L5 and a breaker Q7;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with the 0.4kV bus B5 through a circuit breaker Q8;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with a load A2 through a feeder L11 and a breaker Q16;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS4 through a feeder L10 and a breaker Q15;
the 0.4kV bus B5 is connected with a load A3 through a feeder L13 and a breaker Q18;
the 0.4kV bus B5 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS3 through a feeder L12 and a breaker Q17;
the dual-power conversion device ATS4 is connected with a load A6 through a feeder line L19;
the 0.4kV standby power supply loop comprises two standby power supplies G1 and G2;
the standby power supply G1 is connected with a bus B6 through a breaker Q9;
the standby power supply G2 is connected with a bus B6 through a breaker Q10;
the bus bar B6 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS1 through a breaker Q11 and a feeder L7;
the 0.4kV bus B5 is connected with a dual-power conversion device ATS1 through a feeder line L6;
the dual power supply conversion device ATS1 is connected with a standby bus section B7;
the standby bus section B7 is connected with a double power supply conversion device ATS4 through a feeder L14 and a breaker Q19;
the spare bus-section B7 is connected to a load a4 via a feeder L15 and a breaker Q20;
the 0.4kV emergency power supply loop comprises two emergency power supplies G3 and G4;
the emergency power supply G3 is connected with a bus B8 through a breaker Q13;
the emergency power supply G4 is connected with a bus B8 through a breaker Q12;
the bus bar B8 is connected with a double-power-supply conversion device ATS2 through a breaker Q14 and a feeder L9;
the 0.4kV bus B4 is connected with a dual-power conversion device ATS2 through a feeder line L8;
the dual power supply conversion device ATS2 is connected with a standby bus section B9;
the standby bus section B9 is connected with a double power supply conversion device ATS3 through a feeder L16 and a breaker Q21;
the spare bus-section B9 is connected to a load a1 via a feeder L176 and a breaker Q22;
the uninterruptible power supply UPS is disposed between the dual power transfer device ATS3 and the load a 5.
3. The method for analyzing the reliability of the power supply system of the venue as claimed in claim 2, wherein the step S2 specifically includes the steps of:
s21, selecting a dynamic fault tree model top event, and taking any one of loads A1, A2, A3, A4, A5 or A6 as a top event K;
s22, determining a 10kV upper power supply dynamic subtree module, and taking a 10kV mains supply main power supply S1, a breaker Q1 and a feeder line fault L1 as a bottom event P1; a 10kV mains supply main power supply S2, a circuit breaker Q2 and a feeder fault L2 serve as a bottom event P2; a mains supply spare power source S3 breaker Q3 and feeder fault L3 serve as a bottom event P3;
s23, determining a 0.4kV standby power supply loop static subtree module, and taking a standby power supply G1, a standby power supply G2, a bus bar B6, a double-power-supply conversion device ATS1, a standby bus section B7, a circuit breaker connected with the standby bus section B7 and a feeder line fault loop fault as a bottom event P4;
determining a 0.4kV emergency power supply loop static subtree module, and taking an emergency power supply G3, an emergency power supply G4, a bus bar B8, a dual-power conversion device ATS2, an emergency bus section B9 and circuit breaker and feeder fault loop faults connected with the emergency bus section B9 as a bottom event P5;
s24, taking fault events except bottom events P1, P2, P3, P4 and P5 in the power supply system as bottom triggering events P6;
s25, taking an uninterrupted power supply UPS, a dual power supply conversion device ATS3, a dual power supply conversion device ATS4 and circuit breakers and feeder line faults connected with the same as a bottom event P7;
and S26, introducing dynamic logic gates to establish a power supply system dynamic fault tree model based on bottom events P1-P7.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the dynamic logic gate comprises an HSP hot spare gate closed with an FDEP function.
5. The method for analyzing the reliability of the power supply system of the venue as claimed in claim 4, wherein the step S3 specifically comprises the steps of:
s31, establishing a Markov model according to a 10kV upper power supply dynamic subtree module in the dynamic fault tree model, and drawing a Markov state space diagram according to the Markov model;
s32, establishing a state transition matrix A according to the Markov state space diagram:
in the formula, λ12、λ23、λ24、λ35And λ45Fault rates for each state of the Markov model; gamma ray12、γ23、γ24、γ35And gamma45The restoration rate of each state of the Markov model is obtained;
s33, calculating a linear algebraic equation system according to the state transition matrix A:
wherein, P is the steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model, and P ═ { PiI ═ 1,2,3,4,5}, where P5 is the failure rate of the markov model.
6. The method for analyzing the reliability of the power supply system of the venue as claimed in claim 5, wherein in S4, the method specifically comprises the following steps:
s41, simulating a Markov model and a sampling time sequence of bottom events P4, P5, P6 and P7 by adopting a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method, wherein the bottom event BiThe j-th sampling time is specifically defined as
In the formula
And
respectively the failure sampling time and the repair sampling time of the bottom event Bi at the jth time; the above-mentioned
And
is in the interval of [0,1 ]]A random number of (c); said Fi,Op -1And Fi,Fa -1A repair distribution function and a failure distribution function for the ith bottom event;
bottom event BiTime t of sampling of the sequencei,j：
In the formula, TmaxThe maximum simulation time;
bottom event BiTime series t of samplesi：
ti＝{ti,1,ti,2,L,ti,j}；
S42, calculating the maximum simulation time T of each bottom eventmaxInner time sequence state sequence, bottom event BiThe running state function:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
bottom event BiIn a sampling time interval tsim∈[ti,j-1,ti,j) The operating state of the internal combustion engine; said t issimFor simulating time
S43, according to bottom event BiTime series t of samplesiObtaining the maximum simulation time TmaxThe sampling time sequence t' of all bottom events is arranged in ascending order to obtain
t′＝{t′1,t′2,L,t′m}；
Wherein 0 ═ t'0≤t′1≤t′2≤L≤t′m≤Tmax；
S44, calculating the running state time sequence in each sampling time interval and recording the normal running time t of the systemOp,lAnd number of times AlTime to repair failure tFa,lAnd the number of failures Rl；
The dynamic fault tree structure function is:
the philFor the first simulation time interval ti,j-1,ti,j) The operating state of the internal system;
running state time series:
Φ＝{Φ1,Φ2,L,Φl}
the first simulation time interval tsim∈[ti,j-1,ti,j)；
The running state recording formula is
In the formula, tFa，lIndicates the time of failure recovery, top，lDenotes the normal running time, RlIndicates the number of times of failure recovery, AlIndicating the number of productive runs, and l indicates the number of the ith state change of the power supply system in a single simulation of the state time sequence.
7. The method for analyzing the reliability of the power supply system of the venue as claimed in claim 6, wherein the step S5 specifically comprises the steps of:
s51, calculating the cumulative failure probability as a reliability evaluation index:
wherein N is the simulation time period tsimThe failure frequency within t is less than or equal to t; t is a variable, and the time change curve of the accumulated fault rate is drawn by changing the size of t;
s52, calculating the average repair time and the average failure-free time as reliability evaluation indexes;
the average repair time tMTTR：
Wherein R is the maximum simulation time TmaxThe number of internal fault repairs;
the mean time to failure tMTBF：
Wherein A is the maximum simulation time TmaxThe number of normal operations in the system;
s53, calculating the system steady state availability for evaluating the reliability level of the long-term operation of the venue power supply system, and taking the system steady state availability A (∞):
8. a reliability analysis device for a power supply system of a venue is characterized by comprising:
a power supply system establishment module: the power supply system structure chart is used for establishing a power supply system structure chart for continuously and reliably supplying power to the load under the condition of ensuring different scenes according to relevant operating data and load requirements of the venue;
the dynamic fault tree model building module comprises: the dynamic fault tree model is used for judging the internal logic relationship according to the power supply system structure diagram, introducing a dynamic logic gate and establishing a dynamic fault tree model taking a load power supply interruption fault as a top item;
a steady state probability calculation module: for: calculating the steady-state probability of each state of the Markov model according to the Markov theory and the dynamic fault tree model;
the power supply system running state confirmation module: the method is used for carrying out time sequence state sequence simulation on the Markov model and the dynamic fault tree model through a sequential Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the running state of the power supply system
The power supply system reliability evaluation module: and the reliability evaluation index is calculated according to the running state of the power supply system, so that the reliability of the power supply system is evaluated.
9. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing a method of reliability analysis of a power supply system for a venue as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7 when executing the computer program.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, storing a computer program which, when executed by a processor, causes a method of reliability analysis for a power supply system of a venue according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
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