CN114037248A - River ecological risk assessment method based on ecological deficit index - Google Patents

River ecological risk assessment method based on ecological deficit index Download PDF

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CN114037248A
CN114037248A CN202111296779.2A CN202111296779A CN114037248A CN 114037248 A CN114037248 A CN 114037248A CN 202111296779 A CN202111296779 A CN 202111296779A CN 114037248 A CN114037248 A CN 114037248A
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郭晓明
张松
杨金标
郭彦
李新杰
周曼
胡挺
苏磊
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Henan University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a river ecological risk assessment method based on ecological gibbosity indexes, belongs to the field of ecological hydrology, and is characterized in that the IPC classification number is E02B 1/00. The assessment method obtains the seasonal ecological deficit and the annual ecological deficit according to the yearly flow process line of the hydrological station. And (4) determining a season ecological deficit threshold value and a year ecological deficit threshold value for dividing each risk level through trial evaluation calculation, and evaluating the season ecological risks and year ecological risks of the past year. The invention overcomes the limitation of the existing ecological risk assessment method limited only to the monthly time scale, extends the assessment time scale to seasons and years, and provides a method support for the river management department to implement ecological risk management of long-short combination, staged assessment and graded early warning.

Description

River ecological risk assessment method based on ecological deficit index
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of ecological risk assessment in hydrology, and particularly relates to a river ecological risk assessment method based on ecological gibberis indexes, belonging to a general water conservancy method, wherein the IPC classification number of the river ecological risk assessment method is E02B 1/00.
Background
Ecological risk assessment is an important way for evaluating the health condition of a river ecosystem, and can provide scientific and technological support for implementing ecological restoration by a river management department. The method for evaluating the ecological risks of the rivers based on the ecological deficit indexes is a new method which is gradually developed in recent years. The details of the method are shown in a document [ Zhang Song, Guo Xiaoming, Zhouman, Hui ] a new hydrological situation change evaluation method based on ecological runoff indexes [ J ] hydropower science report, 2021], which provides an ecological risk evaluation method on a monthly time scale. However, the ecological deficit has three time scales of year, season and month, the ecological deficit in different time scales can reflect the runoff reduction degree in different time details, and the river management department needs to know the ecological deficit in various time scales and also needs to know the ecological risk level of the corresponding time scale. However, the method cannot obtain the ecological risks in a larger time scale (season and year), cannot evaluate the health condition of the river ecosystem in different time scales, and cannot provide effective support for the river management department to comprehensively evaluate the ecological risks, systematically construct an ecological risk early warning mechanism and scientifically implement risk management.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a river ecological risk assessment method based on ecological deficit indexes, which is used for solving the problem that the river ecological risk on seasonal and annual time scales cannot be assessed in the prior art.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a river ecological risk assessment method based on ecological deficit indexes is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, collecting year-by-year daily flow data of a long sequence of an analyzed hydrological station, and dividing the time sequence into a time sequence before and after reservoir building according to the formal start application time of an upstream reservoir of the hydrological station;
step 2, determining a lower quartile flow process line; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
based on the daily flow data of the period before the database is built, calculating the lower quartile flow of the current day from the daily flow data of the same day every year, and forming a lower quartile flow process line by the lower quartile flow of each day;
step 3, calculating the runoff in the season with the minimum adaptation range and the runoff in the year with the minimum adaptation range according to four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
calculating runoff quantities in four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter according to the lower quartile flow process line to obtain the seasonal runoff with the minimum adaptation range in each season; and calculating the annual runoff according to the lower quartile flow process line to obtain the annual runoff with the minimum adaptation range.
Step 4, calculating the runoff quantity of the flow process line lower than the lower quartile flow process line in each season for any one year, and determining the ratio of the runoff quantity to the minimum runoff in the adaptive range of the season as the ecological red character of the season; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
comparing the flow process line of any year with the lower quartile flow process line, and calculating the ecological deficit of each season according to the following formula, namely:
Figure BSA0000256634490000021
wherein s represents season, and s is 1, 2, 3, 4, which respectively represents spring, summer, autumn, and winter; t is1Determining spring season of 3 months, 4 months and 5 months for the days of each season, and when s is 1, T1＝92；MinWsThe minimum runoff of the adaptation range in s season is m3；EDsIs ecological deficit in the s season of the year;
step 5, for any one year of flow process line, calculating the runoff of the year lower than the next quartile flow process line, and the ratio of the runoff to the minimum year runoff of the adaptation range is the ecological red character of the year; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
comparing the flow process line of any one year with the lower quartile flow process line, and calculating the annual ecological deficit according to the following formula, namely:
Figure BSA0000256634490000022
wherein y represents year; t is2The days of the whole year; MinWyFor the minimum annual runoff in the adaptation range, the unit is m3；EDyIs ecological red in the year;
step 6, dividing seasonal ecological risks into no risk, low risk, medium risk and high risk, and determining seasonal ecological deficit threshold values for dividing the four risk levels; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the correspondence between the four risk levels and the seasonal ecological deficit is shown in table 1. P and q in table 1 represent percentiles respectively,
Figure BSA0000256634490000023
representing a seasonal ecological deficit calculated according to formula (1), Q of formula (1)iThen it is obtained from the p-percentile flow process line.
Figure BSA0000256634490000024
And also calculated in the same way.
TABLE 1 seasonal ecological Risk grading
Figure BSA0000256634490000025
Figure BSA0000256634490000031
q can be determined by performing multiple test evaluations according to the ecological deficit of the season. Firstly, determining the minimum runoff occurrence year of each season of spring, summer, autumn and winter according to the seasonal runoff of the period before the construction of a warehouse, namely determining the year of the 4 most withered seasons. Then, at intervals of 1 percentile, a plurality of q values were set by small increments, and the risk levels of the aforementioned 4 deadest seasons at each q were evaluated. Finally, when the risk level of the 4 deadest seasons changes from containing partial intermediate risk to full high risk, it is the recommended q. The selection of the p value can be more flexible because the medium and low risks are far less important than the high risks and can cause the river management department to pay more attention. It is recommended here that p be taken to be 10 percentiles above q, but p is up to the 24 th percentile.
Step 7, calculating to obtain the ecological deficit of each season of the past year according to the step 4, and adopting the seasonal ecological deficit threshold value determined in the step 6
Figure BSA0000256634490000032
And
Figure BSA0000256634490000033
ecological risk assessment was performed for each season of the calendar year according to table 1.
Step 8, dividing the annual ecological risks into no risk, low risk, medium risk and high risk, and determining annual ecological deficit threshold values for dividing the four risk levels; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the correspondence between the four risk levels and the annual ecological deficit is shown in table 2.
Figure BSA0000256634490000034
Represents a number of annual Japanese red characters calculated according to the formula (2), Q of the formula (2)iThen it is obtained from the j percentile flow process line.
Figure BSA0000256634490000035
And also calculated in the same way.
TABLE 2 annual ecological Risk grading
Figure BSA0000256634490000036
k can be determined by performing a plurality of test evaluations according to the annual ecological deficit. Firstly, determining the minimum year of year runoff occurrence according to the year runoff in the period before the construction of a reservoir, namely determining 1 worst year. Then, at intervals of 1 percentile, a plurality of k values were set by small increments, and the risk level of the worst year at each k was evaluated. Finally, k is the recommendation k when its risk level transitions from medium risk to high risk. Also, it is recommended herein that j be taken to be 10 percentiles above k, but j is up to the 24 th percentile.
Step 9, calculating the annual ecological deficit of the past year according to the step 4, and adopting the annual ecological deficit threshold value determined in the step 8
Figure BSA0000256634490000037
And
Figure BSA0000256634490000038
annual ecological risk assessment was performed over the years as per table 2.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: (1) provides a new method for calculating the ecological deficit and annual deficit in seasons. (2) Based on the season ecological deficit and the year ecological deficit, the season ecological risk and the year ecological risk are evaluated, and the river ecological risk is evaluated from a multi-time scale, so that a river management department can know the health condition of the river management department more comprehensively and intuitively, and the practicability of the ecological runoff index is greatly improved. (3) By combining the method and the existing literature [ Zhang Song, Guo Xiaoming, Zhouman, Hui, hydrological situation change evaluation new method [ J ] based on ecological runoff indexes, hydroelectric power science report, 2021] of the invention, a whole set of multi-time scale river ecological risk evaluation method system can be established, and further, a method support is provided for the river management department to implement ecological risk management of long-short combination, staged evaluation and graded early warning, thereby greatly contributing to improving the river management level.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of a lower quartile flow process line and an adaptation range provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of a least quarterly path of an adaptation range provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a flowchart of an adaptation range minimum annual path provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a graph of insufficient radial flow for a year according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to more clearly show the purpose and technical scheme of the invention, the invention is further described in detail by taking a yellow river wave bottom hydrological station as an example and combining the accompanying drawings, and the specific implementation steps are as shown in fig. 1:
step 1, collecting year-by-year daily flow data of a long sequence of an analyzed hydrological station, and dividing the time sequence into a time sequence before reservoir building and a time sequence after reservoir building according to the formal start application time of an upstream reservoir of the hydrological station; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
annual daily flow data of hydrological stations at the bottom of the small waves of the yellow river are collected from the hydrological annual book of the people's republic of China. Daily traffic data was collected in 1956-2015. Since the small wave bottom reservoir is formally operated at the end of 2001, the time series is divided into the time series before reservoir building (1956-.
Step 2, determining a lower quartile flow process line; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
based on the daily flow time series 46 years before the establishment of the database (1956-2001), taking 1 month and 1 day as an example, the lower quartile flow of 1 month and 1 day is calculated from 46 data consisting of 1 month and 1 target flow every year. The next quartile flow rate from 1 month, 2 days to 12 months, 31 days is also calculated according to the method. The lower quartile flow from 1 month, 1 day to 12 months, 31 days, constitutes the lower quartile flow process line (e.g., the lower boundary curve of the dark region in fig. 2). The dark area in the middle of the two curves is the adaptation range.
Step 3, calculating the runoff in the season with the minimum adaptation range and the runoff in the year with the minimum adaptation range according to four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
calculating the runoff of each season according to the following quartile flow process line, namely the minimum runoff of the adaptation range of each season, namely: MinWspring，MinWsummmer，MinWautumn，MinWwinterThe areas of the dark and light areas in each slice in fig. 3 represent the runoff quantity of each season, namely the minimum runoff of the adaptation range of each season; calculating the annual runoff according to the lower quartile flow process line to obtain the fitness valueThe minimum annual runoff should be ranged, i.e.: MinWySuch as the dark area in fig. 4.
Step 4, calculating the runoff quantity of the flow process line lower than the lower quartile flow process line in each season for any one year, and determining the ratio of the runoff quantity to the minimum runoff in the adaptive range of the season as the ecological red character of the season; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
taking the 1956 flow process line as an example, the daily flow is subtracted by the same day flow of the lower quartile flow process line. And counting the sum of negative values in the difference value of the two seasons, multiplying the sum by 86400, and dividing the sum by the minimum runoff of the adaptation range of each season, namely the season ecological deficit of each season in 1956. As shown in fig. 5, the dark area represents the insufficient runoff quantity below the lower quartile runoff process line in the year, and the dark area in each season is divided by the minimum runoff in the adaptation range of the season, i.e. the ecological red character in the season is obtained. The calculation process is also adopted for the season ecological deficit in other seasons. The ecological deficit in spring, summer, autumn and winter in other years is calculated in a similar way to that in 1956.
Step 5, for any one year of flow process line, calculating the runoff of the year lower than the next quartile flow process line, and the ratio of the runoff to the minimum year runoff of the adaptation range is the ecological red character of the year; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
taking the 1956 flow process line as an example, the daily flow is subtracted by the same day flow of the lower quartile flow process line. And (4) counting the sum of negative values in the difference values of the two plants in the whole year, multiplying the sum by 86400, and dividing the sum by the minimum annual runoff in the adaptation range to obtain the annual ecological deficit of 1956. The dark area in fig. 5 represents the insufficient runoff of the year below the lower quartile runoff process line, and all dark area is divided by the minimum annual runoff of the adaptation range, i.e. the ecological red of the year. The annual ecological deficit of other years adopts a calculation process similar to that of 1956.
Step 6, q in the table 1 can be determined after multiple test evaluations according to the seasonal ecological deficit; the selection of the p value can be more flexible because the medium and low risks are far less important than the high risks and can cause the river management department to pay more attention. It is recommended here that p be taken to be 10 percentiles above q, but p is up to the 24 th percentile.
Firstly, the seasonal runoff of a time series (1956-2001) before library construction is statistically analyzed, and the worst year of four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter is determined. In this example, they occur in spring 1998 (3-5 months 1998), summer 2001 (6-8 months 2001), autumn 1997 (9-11 months 1997), and winter 1960 (12-2 months 1960).
Then, a plurality of q values are set by small increments (8, 9, 10, 11 are adopted in the present example). Calculate each q-corresponding according to equation (1)
Figure BSA0000256634490000051
The value is obtained. The ecological risk ratings for these four deadest seasons were evaluated according to table 1 with each q.
Finally, it is found by calculation: when q is 8, three deadlines are high risk, and one is medium risk; when q takes 9, the four deadest seasons are all at high risk. Therefore, q is 9. p takes the recommended value p 19.
And 7, based on the season ecological deficit (1956-2015) obtained in the step 4, evaluating the four season ecological risks in the past year according to the table 1 by adopting the two parameters (q is 9 and p is 19) determined in the step 6.
Step 8, k in the table 1 can be determined after a plurality of test evaluations according to the annual ecological deficit; also, it is recommended herein that j be taken to be 10 percentiles above k, but j is up to the 24 th percentile.
Firstly, the annual runoff of a time series (1956-2001) before library construction is statistically analyzed, and the worst year is determined. The most recent year in this example is 1997.
Then, a plurality of k values are set by small increments (9, 10, 11, 12 are adopted in the present example). Then, the value corresponding to each k is calculated according to the formula (2)
Figure BSA0000256634490000061
The value is obtained. The annual ecological risk level was assessed according to table 2 for each k.
Finally, it is found by calculation: when k takes 10, the annual ecological risk in 1997 is a middle risk; the annual ecological risk in 1997 is high when k is taken as 11. Therefore, k is taken to be 11. j takes the recommended value j-21.
And 9, based on the annual ecological deficit (1956-2015) calculated in the step 5, evaluating the annual ecological risk according to the table 2 by adopting the two parameters (k is 11 and j is 21) determined in the step 8.

Claims (2)

1. A river ecological risk assessment method based on ecological deficit indexes is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, collecting year-by-year daily flow data of a long sequence of an analyzed hydrological station, and dividing the time sequence into a time sequence before reservoir building and a time sequence after reservoir building according to the formal start application time of an upstream reservoir of the hydrological station;
step 2, determining a lower quartile flow process line; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
based on the daily flow data of the period before the database is built, calculating the lower quartile flow of the current day from the daily flow data of the same day every year, and forming a lower quartile flow process line by the lower quartile flow of each day;
step 3, calculating the runoff in the season with the minimum adaptation range and the runoff in the year with the minimum adaptation range according to four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
calculating runoff quantities in four seasons of spring, summer, autumn and winter according to the lower quartile flow process line to obtain the seasonal runoff with the minimum adaptation range in each season; calculating the annual runoff according to the lower quartile flow process line to obtain the annual runoff with the minimum adaptation range;
step 4, calculating the runoff quantity of the flow process line lower than the lower quartile flow process line in each season for any one year, and determining the ratio of the runoff quantity to the minimum runoff in the adaptive range of the season as the ecological red character of the season; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
comparing the flow process line of any year with the lower quartile flow process line, and calculating the ecological deficit of each season according to the following formula, namely:
Figure FSA0000256634480000011
in the formula, D represents the number of seconds in a day and takes the value of 86400; s represents season, 1, 2, 3, 4 respectively represents spring, summer, autumn, winter; t is1Determining spring season of 3 months, 4 months and 5 months for the days of each season, and when s is 1, T1＝92；MinWsThe minimum runoff of the adaptation range in s season is m3；EDsIs ecological deficit in the s season of the year;
step 5, for any one year of flow process line, calculating the runoff of the year lower than the next quartile flow process line, and the ratio of the runoff to the minimum year runoff of the adaptation range is the ecological red character of the year; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
comparing the flow process line of any one year with the lower quartile flow process line, and calculating the annual ecological deficit according to the following formula, namely:
Figure FSA0000256634480000012
wherein y represents year; t is2The days of the whole year; MinWyFor the minimum annual runoff in the adaptation range, the unit is m3；EDyIs ecological red in the year;
step 6, dividing seasonal ecological risks into no risk, low risk, medium risk and high risk, and determining seasonal ecological deficit threshold values for dividing the four risk levels; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the corresponding relationship between the four risk levels and the seasonal ecological deficit is shown in table 1; p and q in table 1 represent percentiles respectively,
Figure FSA0000256634480000027
representing a seasonal ecological deficit calculated according to formula (1), Q of formula (1)iThen the p percentile flow process line is used for obtaining;
Figure FSA0000256634480000028
also calculated in the same way;
TABLE 1 seasonal ecological Risk grading
Figure FSA0000256634480000021
q is determined after multiple test evaluations are carried out according to the ecological deficit of the season; firstly, determining the minimum runoff occurrence year of each season of spring, summer, autumn and winter according to the seasonal runoff of the period before the construction of a warehouse, namely determining the year of 4 most withered seasons; then, setting a plurality of q values from small increments at intervals of 1 percentile, and evaluating the risk levels of the 4 deadest seasons under each q; finally, when the risk grades of the 4 deadest seasons are changed from the risk containing part to the risk containing all high risk, the risk grade is the recommended q;
step 7, calculating to obtain the ecological deficit of each season of the past year according to the step 4, and adopting the seasonal ecological deficit threshold value determined in the step 6
Figure FSA0000256634480000022
And
Figure FSA0000256634480000023
ecological risk assessment is carried out on each season of the calendar year according to the table 1;
step 8, dividing the annual ecological risks into no risk, low risk, medium risk and high risk, and determining annual ecological deficit threshold values for dividing the four risk levels; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the corresponding relationship between the four risk levels and the annual ecological deficit is shown in table 2;
Figure FSA0000256634480000024
represents a number of annual Japanese red characters calculated according to the formula (2), Q of the formula (2)iObtaining the j percentile flow process line;
Figure FSA0000256634480000025
also calculated in the same way;
TABLE 2 annual ecological Risk grading
Figure FSA0000256634480000026
Figure FSA0000256634480000031
k can be determined after a plurality of test evaluations are carried out according to the annual ecological deficit; firstly, determining the minimum year of year runoff occurrence according to the year runoff of the period before the construction of a reservoir, namely determining 1 worst year; then, setting a plurality of k values from small increments at intervals of 1 percentile, and evaluating the risk level of the worst year at each k; finally, k is a recommendation k when the risk level changes from medium risk to high risk;
step 9, calculating the annual ecological deficit of the past year according to the step 4, and adopting the annual ecological deficit threshold value determined in the step 8
Figure FSA0000256634480000032
And
Figure FSA0000256634480000033
annual ecological risk assessment was performed over the years as per table 2.
2. The method for evaluating the ecological risk of the river based on the ecological deficit index according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
step 6, dividing seasonal ecological risks into no risk, low risk, medium risk and high risk, and determining seasonal ecological deficit threshold values for dividing the four risk levels; the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the correspondence between the four risk levels and the seasonal ecological deficit is shown in table 1. P and q in table 1 represent percentiles respectively,
Figure FSA0000256634480000034
is shown according toSeasonal ecological deficit calculated by formula (1), Q of formula (1)iThen it is obtained from the p-percentile flow process line.
Figure FSA0000256634480000035
And also calculated in the same way.
TABLE 1 seasonal ecological Risk grading
Figure FSA0000256634480000036
CN202111296779.2A 2021-10-29 2021-10-29 River ecological risk assessment method based on ecological deficit index Pending CN114037248A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN115860421A (en) * 2022-12-26 2023-03-28 长江水利委员会水文局 Ecological flow dynamic calculation method and system adaptive to target guarantee rate

Cited By (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN115860421A (en) * 2022-12-26 2023-03-28 长江水利委员会水文局 Ecological flow dynamic calculation method and system adaptive to target guarantee rate
CN115860421B (en) * 2022-12-26 2023-08-29 长江水利委员会水文局 Ecological flow dynamic calculation method and system adapting to target guarantee rate

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