CN114037187A - Power distribution reliability prediction method and system - Google Patents

Power distribution reliability prediction method and system Download PDF

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CN114037187A
CN114037187A CN202111515092.3A CN202111515092A CN114037187A CN 114037187 A CN114037187 A CN 114037187A CN 202111515092 A CN202111515092 A CN 202111515092A CN 114037187 A CN114037187 A CN 114037187A
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distribution
power failure
outage
transformer
time
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黄湛华
何亮
徐启源
张伟
伍炜卫
黄万杰
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Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a method and a system for predicting power distribution reliability, which comprises the steps of obtaining basic data information and historical power failure information of a power distribution network; determining the power failure range and the power failure time of the power distribution according to the basic data information and the historical power failure information; the power distribution at least comprises a transformer substation, a feeder line and a distribution transformer; and determining the average power failure time of the distribution transformer according to the power failure range and the power failure time of the distribution transformer, and determining the system power failure time of the distribution network according to the average power failure time of the distribution transformer. The invention combines basic data information and historical power failure information, evaluates the power failure range and power failure duration of the transformer substation, the feeder line and the distribution transformer, counts the average power failure time of the transformer substation, the feeder line and the distribution transformer, and provides a fuzzy prediction method for power distribution reliability statistics.

Description

Power distribution reliability prediction method and system
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution reliability prediction, in particular to a power distribution reliability prediction method and system.
Background
The modern society has an increasing demand for electric power and an increasing demand for power supply quality, and power supply enterprises are required to provide continuous, sufficient and high-quality power supply. In an electric power system, a distribution network directly supplies electric energy to users, and the reliability of the distribution network determines the power supply reliability of the electric power system to a certain extent. And evaluating the capacity of the distribution transformer loss becomes a new idea. For the development of statistical work of power distribution reliability, the biggest difficulty is that the data volume of the loss capacity of the distribution transformer is large and difficult to collect. At present, the statistics of the power failure time mainly comprises that the statistics precision is higher based on a power grid topology and an intelligent electric meter, but the equipment transformation investment and the data verification time are long.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for predicting distribution reliability, and solves the technical problems of high difficulty and low accuracy in prediction of distribution transformer reliability in the conventional method.
In one aspect, a method for predicting power distribution reliability is provided, including:
acquiring basic data information and historical power failure information of a power distribution network;
determining the power failure range and the power failure time of the power distribution according to the basic data information and the historical power failure information; the power distribution at least comprises a transformer substation, a feeder line and a distribution transformer;
and determining the average power failure time of the distribution transformer according to the power failure range and the power failure time of the distribution transformer, and determining the system power failure time of the distribution network according to the average power failure time of the distribution transformer.
Preferably, the determining the power outage range of the power distribution specifically includes:
acquiring outage distribution capacity and outage times of a transformer substation;
calculating the outage distribution transformer loss capacity of the transformer substation according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000021
wherein, ClsIndicating outage distribution loss capacity, C, of the substationsRepresenting outage distribution capacity of substation, UOTsIndicating the number of shutdowns of the substation.
Preferably, the determining the blackout range of the power distribution further comprises:
obtaining outage distribution transformation capacity and outage times of a feeder line;
calculating the outage distribution loss capacity of the feeder according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000022
wherein, ClfRepresenting outage distribution loss capacity, C, of the feederfIndicating outage capacity of feeder line, UOTfIndicating the number of outages of the feeder.
Preferably, the determining the blackout range of the power distribution further comprises:
acquiring outage capacity and outage times of distribution transformer;
calculating outage loss capacity of the distribution transformer according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000023
wherein, ClttuRepresenting outage loss capacity of distribution transformer, CttuIndicating outage capacity of distribution, UOTttuIndicating the number of outage of the distribution transformer.
Preferably, the determining the power outage time of the power distribution further comprises:
obtaining the shutdown duration and the shutdown times of the transformer substation;
calculating the power failure time of the transformer substation according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000024
wherein, PtsIndicating the time of a power failure of the substation, DosIndicating the duration of the outage of the substation, UOTsIndicating the number of shutdowns of the substation.
Preferably, the determining the power outage time of the power distribution further comprises:
obtaining the outage duration and the outage times of the feeder line;
calculating the power failure time of the feeder line according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000031
wherein, PtfIndicating the time of a feeder outage, DofIndicating the duration of outage of the feeder line, UOTfIndicating the number of outages of the feeder.
Preferably, the determining the power outage time of the power distribution further comprises:
obtaining outage duration and outage times of distribution transformer;
calculating the power failure time of the distribution transformer according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000032
wherein, PtttuIndicating the time of power failure, Do, of the distribution transformerttuIndicating the outage duration of the distribution transformation, UOTttuIndicating the number of outage of the distribution transformer.
Preferably, the average outage time of the distribution transformer is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000033
Figure BDA0003406582760000034
Figure BDA0003406582760000035
wherein, SAIDsIndicating average outage time of substation, SAIDfIndicating mean time to failure, SAID, of feederttuThe distribution average power failure time is shown, and KVA shows the distribution capacity.
Preferably, the determining the system power failure time of the power distribution network specifically includes:
and outputting the sum of the average power failure time of the transformer substation, the average power failure time of the feeder line and the average power failure time of the distribution transformer as the system power failure time of the power distribution network.
In another aspect, a power distribution reliability prediction system is further provided, for implementing the power distribution reliability prediction method, including:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring basic data information and historical power failure information of the power distribution network;
the calculation module is used for determining the power failure range and the power failure time of the power distribution according to the basic data information and the historical power failure information; the power distribution at least comprises a transformer substation, a feeder line and a distribution transformer; and determining the average power failure time of the distribution transformer according to the power failure range and the power failure time of the power distribution, and determining the system power failure time of the power distribution network according to the average power failure time of the distribution transformer.
In summary, the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the method and the system for predicting the power distribution reliability provided by the invention combine basic data information and historical power failure information, evaluate the power failure range and the power failure duration of the transformer substation, the feeder line and the distribution transformer, count the average power failure time of the transformer substation, the feeder line and the distribution transformer, and provide a fuzzy prediction method for the power distribution reliability statistics.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is within the scope of the present invention for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on the drawings without inventive exercise.
Fig. 1 is a main flow chart of a method for predicting power distribution reliability according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a power distribution reliability prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a method for predicting power distribution reliability according to an embodiment of the present invention. In this embodiment, the method comprises the steps of:
acquiring basic data information and historical power failure information of a power distribution network; that is, the information, the distribution transformation capacity, is counted, that is, all distribution transformation capacities in the area are counted; the number of the transformer stations is counted, namely the number of all the transformer stations in the area is counted; the number of feeders is the number of all feeders in the statistical area; the distribution variable is the quantity of all distribution variables in the statistical region; the outage times of the transformer substation, namely the times of the outage of the transformer substation, which leads to the loss of distribution transformer capacity; the number of times of feeder line shutdown, namely the number of times of the whole feeder line shutdown to cause the loss of distribution transformer capacity; the number of distribution transformer shutdown times, namely the number of times of distribution transformer shutdown, which leads to the loss of distribution transformer capacity.
Further, determining the power failure range and the power failure time of the power distribution according to the basic data information and the historical power failure information; the power distribution at least comprises a transformer substation, a feeder line and a distribution transformer.
In the specific embodiment, the outage distribution capacity and the outage times of a transformer substation are obtained; the transformer substation outage distribution loss capacity is the distribution capacity affected after the transformer substation is shut down;
calculating the outage distribution transformer loss capacity of the transformer substation according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000051
wherein, ClsIndicating outage distribution loss capacity, C, of the substationsRepresenting outage distribution capacity of substation, UOTsIndicating the number of shutdowns of the substation.
Obtaining outage distribution transformation capacity and outage times of a feeder line; the outage distribution transformation capacity of the feeder line is the distribution transformation capacity influenced by the outage of the feeder line;
calculating the outage distribution loss capacity of the feeder according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000052
wherein, ClfRepresenting outage distribution loss capacity, C, of the feederfIndicating outage capacity of feeder line, UOTfIndicating the number of outages of the feeder.
Acquiring outage capacity and outage times of distribution transformer; the outage capacity of the distribution transformer is the distribution transformer capacity influenced by the outage of the distribution transformer;
calculating outage loss capacity of the distribution transformer according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000061
wherein, ClttuRepresenting outage loss capacity of distribution transformer, CttuIndicating outage capacity of distribution, UOTttuIndicating the number of outage of the distribution transformer.
Specifically, the shutdown duration and the shutdown times of the transformer substation are obtained; the outage duration of the transformer substation is the outage duration of the transformer substation;
calculating the power failure time of the transformer substation according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000062
wherein, PtsIndicating the time of a power failure of the substation, DosIndicating the duration of the outage of the substation, UOTsIndicating the number of shutdowns of the substation.
Obtaining the outage duration and the outage times of the feeder line; wherein the outage duration of the feeder line is the outage duration of the feeder line;
calculating the power failure time of the feeder line according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000063
wherein, PtfIndicating the time of a feeder outage, DofIndicating the duration of outage of the feeder line, UOTfIndicating the number of outages of the feeder.
Obtaining outage duration and outage times of distribution transformer; wherein the outage duration of the distribution transformer is the outage post-outage duration of the distribution transformer;
calculating the power failure time of the distribution transformer according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000064
wherein, PtttuIndicating the time of power failure, Do, of the distribution transformerttuIndicating the outage duration of the distribution transformation, UOTttuIndicating the number of outage of the distribution transformer.
Further, the average power failure time of the distribution transformer is determined according to the power failure range and the power failure time of the power distribution, and the system power failure time of the power distribution network is determined according to the average power failure time of the distribution transformer.
In a specific embodiment, the average power failure time of the distribution transformer is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003406582760000071
Figure BDA0003406582760000072
Figure BDA0003406582760000073
wherein, SAIDsIndicating average outage time of substation, SAIDfIndicating mean time to failure, SAID, of feederttuThe distribution average power failure time is shown, and KVA shows the distribution capacity.
Specifically, the sum of the average power failure time of the transformer substation, the average power failure time of the feeder line and the average power failure time of the distribution transformer is output as the system power failure time of the power distribution network.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a power distribution reliability prediction system according to the present invention. In this embodiment, the method includes:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring basic data information and historical power failure information of the power distribution network;
the calculation module is used for determining the power failure range and the power failure time of the power distribution according to the basic data information and the historical power failure information; the power distribution at least comprises a transformer substation, a feeder line and a distribution transformer; and determining the average power failure time of the distribution transformer according to the power failure range and the power failure time of the power distribution, and determining the system power failure time of the power distribution network according to the average power failure time of the distribution transformer.
For the implementation process of the power distribution reliability prediction system, reference may be made to the specific process of the power distribution reliability prediction method, which is not described herein again.
In summary, the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the method and the system for predicting the power distribution reliability provided by the invention combine basic data information and historical power failure information, evaluate the power failure range and the power failure duration of the transformer substation, the feeder line and the distribution transformer, count the average power failure time of the transformer substation, the feeder line and the distribution transformer, and provide a fuzzy prediction method for the power distribution reliability statistics.
The above disclosure is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention, and it is therefore to be understood that the invention is not limited by the scope of the appended claims.

Claims (10)

1. A method for predicting power distribution reliability, comprising:
acquiring basic data information and historical power failure information of a power distribution network;
determining the power failure range and power failure time of power distribution according to the basic data information and the historical power failure information; the power distribution at least comprises a transformer substation, a feeder line and a distribution transformer;
and determining the average power failure time of the distribution transformer according to the power failure range and the power failure time of the distribution transformer, and determining the system power failure time of the distribution network according to the average power failure time of the distribution transformer.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein said determining the blackout region of the power distribution specifically comprises:
acquiring outage distribution capacity and outage times of a transformer substation;
calculating the outage distribution transformer loss capacity of the transformer substation according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003406582750000011
wherein, ClsIndicating outage distribution loss capacity, C, of the substationsRepresenting outage distribution capacity of substation, UOTsIndicating the number of shutdowns of the substation.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein said determining a blackout range of said power distribution further comprises:
obtaining outage distribution transformation capacity and outage times of a feeder line;
calculating the outage distribution loss capacity of the feeder according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003406582750000012
wherein, ClfRepresenting outage distribution loss capacity, C, of the feederfIndicating outage capacity of feeder line, UOTfIndicating the number of outages of the feeder.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein said determining a blackout range of said power distribution further comprises:
acquiring outage capacity and outage times of distribution transformer;
calculating outage loss capacity of the distribution transformer according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003406582750000021
wherein, ClttuRepresenting outage loss capacity of distribution transformer, CttuIndicating outage capacity of distribution, UOTttuIndicating the number of outage of the distribution transformer.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein said determining a blackout time for said power distribution further comprises:
obtaining the shutdown duration and the shutdown times of the transformer substation;
calculating the power failure time of the transformer substation according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003406582750000022
wherein, PtsIndicating the time of a power failure of the substation, DosIndicating the duration of the outage of the substation, UOTsIndicating the number of shutdowns of the substation.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein said determining a blackout time for said power distribution further comprises:
obtaining the outage duration and the outage times of the feeder line;
calculating the power failure time of the feeder line according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003406582750000023
wherein, PtfIndicating the time of a feeder outage, DofIndicating the duration of outage of the feeder line, UOTfIndicating the number of outages of the feeder.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein said determining a blackout time for said power distribution further comprises:
obtaining outage duration and outage times of distribution transformer;
calculating the power failure time of the distribution transformer according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003406582750000031
wherein, PtttuIndicating the time of power failure, Do, of the distribution transformerttuIndicating the outage duration of the distribution transformation, UOTttuIndicating the number of outage of the distribution transformer.
8. A method according to claim 4 or 7, wherein the average outage time of the distribution transformer is calculated according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003406582750000032
Figure FDA0003406582750000033
Figure FDA0003406582750000034
wherein, SAIDsIndicating average outage time of substation, SAIDfIndicating mean time to failure, SAID, of feederttuThe distribution average power failure time is shown, and KVA shows the distribution capacity.
9. The method of claim 8, wherein the determining the system outage time for the power distribution network specifically comprises:
and outputting the sum of the average power failure time of the transformer substation, the average power failure time of the feeder line and the average power failure time of the distribution transformer as the system power failure time of the power distribution network.
10. A power distribution reliability prediction system for implementing the method of any one of claims 1-9, comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring basic data information and historical power failure information of the power distribution network;
the calculation module is used for determining the power failure range and the power failure time of the power distribution according to the basic data information and the historical power failure information; the power distribution at least comprises a transformer substation, a feeder line and a distribution transformer; and determining the average power failure time of the distribution transformer according to the power failure range and the power failure time of the power distribution, and determining the system power failure time of the power distribution network according to the average power failure time of the distribution transformer.
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Citations (3)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
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CN110137958A (en) * 2019-05-22 2019-08-16 深圳供电局有限公司 A kind of user's Voltage Sag Analysis method and its system
CN111553810A (en) * 2020-04-30 2020-08-18 深圳供电局有限公司 Power supply reliability fuzzy statistical method and device and computer readable storage medium

Patent Citations (3)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN103941158A (en) * 2014-04-17 2014-07-23 国家电网公司 Power distribution network fault diagnosis system and method based on multi-source information
CN110137958A (en) * 2019-05-22 2019-08-16 深圳供电局有限公司 A kind of user's Voltage Sag Analysis method and its system
CN111553810A (en) * 2020-04-30 2020-08-18 深圳供电局有限公司 Power supply reliability fuzzy statistical method and device and computer readable storage medium

Non-Patent Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
郭亮;安义;邓才波;刘蓓;陈琛;: "10 kV配电线路保护配置方法研究", 江西电力, no. 10, 25 October 2018 (2018-10-25), pages 14 - 19 *

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