CN113985148A - Thunder and lightning forecasting method and thunder and lightning forecasting equipment - Google Patents
Thunder and lightning forecasting method and thunder and lightning forecasting equipment Download PDFInfo
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- CN113985148A CN113985148A CN202111298633.1A CN202111298633A CN113985148A CN 113985148 A CN113985148 A CN 113985148A CN 202111298633 A CN202111298633 A CN 202111298633A CN 113985148 A CN113985148 A CN 113985148A
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Abstract
The invention provides a lightning forecasting method, which comprises the following steps: calculating an atmospheric electric field floating reference value of a forecast area at a first time point; monitoring an atmospheric electric field value of a second time point of the forecast area; determining an atmospheric electric field change rate threshold; calculating an electric field difference value between the atmospheric electric field value and the atmospheric electric field floating reference value; calculating a time difference between the first time point and the second time point; determining the current atmospheric electric field change rate based on the electric field difference and the time difference; judging whether the current atmospheric electric field change rate is greater than an atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value or not; and counting the number of effective points of each level of the atmospheric electric field change rate. And if so, entering a thunder and lightning forecasting program. And ending the thunder and lightning forecast in the current round. If not, returning to the step to calculate the atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at the first time point. The invention also provides a lightning forecasting device. The thunder forecasting method and the thunder forecasting device adopt the electric field change rate as a forecasting judgment basis to realize more accurate and rapid forecasting.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of weather forecast, in particular to a lightning forecast method and lightning forecast equipment.
Background
Thunder and lightning is an atmospheric discharge phenomenon generated in strong convection weather, and has short discharge time and huge energy. The heat energy generated by the strong current of the thunder, the high-frequency electromagnetic field generated by the area around the thunder, the strong thunder wave and the like can generate huge damage effects in the moment, such as damaging communication equipment, damaging power distribution devices, triggering forest fires and the like, and even can cause casualties. Therefore, the method has important significance in timely and accurate prediction before lightning occurs. However, the characteristic of instantaneous lightning occurrence often delays the time delay of lightning forecast. In addition, many factors affecting the formation of lightning, such as geographical and geological features, climatic features, surrounding environment changes and the like of a lightning occurrence area, all bring difficulties to accurate prediction of lightning.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the present invention provides a method and a device for lightning prediction with high accuracy.
In order to achieve the purpose of the invention, the invention provides a lightning forecasting method which is used for forecasting the lightning in a forecasting area. The lightning forecasting method comprises the following steps: calculating an atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at a first time point; monitoring an atmospheric electric field value of the forecast area at a second time point; determining an atmospheric electric field change rate threshold; calculating an electric field difference value between the atmospheric electric field value and the atmospheric electric field floating reference value; calculating a time difference between the first time point and the second time point; determining a current atmospheric electric field change rate based on the electric field difference value and the time difference; judging whether the current atmospheric electric field change rate is greater than the atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value or not; if yes, entering a thunder and lightning forecasting program; ending the thunder and lightning forecast in the current round; if not, returning to the step to calculate the atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at the first time point.
Optionally, the step of calculating an atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at a first time point further includes: determining a first time period by taking the first time point as a center; monitoring a plurality of first atmospheric electric field values over the first time period; removing a maximum value and a minimum value of the plurality of first atmospheric electric field values; and processing the residual first atmospheric electric field value to obtain the atmospheric electric field floating reference value.
Optionally, the step of determining an atmospheric electric field rate of change threshold further comprises: selecting a preset atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value within an empirical value range; testing and forecasting sensitivity based on the preset atmospheric electric field change rate threshold; judging whether the forecast sensitivity meets a preset standard or not; if yes, determining the atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value; if not, adjusting the preset atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value, and returning to the step to judge whether the forecast sensitivity meets the preset standard or not.
Optionally, the lightning forecasting procedure further comprises: starting timing, and counting the first-stage standard-reaching continuous time of the change rate of the atmospheric electric field; and counting the number of first-level effective standard-reaching points of the change rate of the atmospheric electric field.
Optionally, the lightning forecasting procedure further comprises: judging whether to issue a primary lightning forecast or not based on the primary standard-reaching continuous time and the primary standard-reaching effective points; if yes, entering the step of issuing a first-stage lightning forecast; if not, returning to the step to calculate the atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at the first time point.
Optionally, after issuing the primary lightning forecast, the lightning forecast program further includes: continuously counting second-level continuous time of reaching standards based on the first-level continuous time of reaching standards, and continuously counting second-level effective points of reaching standards based on the first-level effective points of reaching standards; judging whether to issue a secondary lightning forecast or not based on the secondary standard-reaching continuous time and the secondary standard-reaching effective points; if yes, entering the step of issuing a secondary lightning forecast; if not, entering the step of judging whether the primary forecast time of the primary lightning forecast reaches the preset standard time length or not; if yes, the step is carried out, and the lightning forecast in the current round is finished; if not, returning to the step to issue the primary lightning forecast.
Optionally, after issuing the secondary lightning forecast, the lightning forecast program further includes: continuously counting three-level continuous time of reaching standards based on the two-level continuous time of reaching standards, and continuously counting three-level effective points of reaching standards based on the two-level effective points of reaching standards; judging whether to issue a three-level lightning forecast or not based on the three-level reaching continuous time and the three-level reaching effective points; if yes, entering the step of issuing three-level lightning forecast; if not, entering the step of judging whether the forecast time of the secondary lightning forecast reaches the preset standard time length or not; if yes, the step is carried out, and the lightning forecast in the current round is finished; if not, returning to the step to issue a secondary lightning forecast.
Optionally, after issuing the three-level lightning forecast, the lightning forecast program further includes: judging whether the forecast time of the three-level lightning forecast reaches a preset standard time length or not; if yes, the step is carried out, and the lightning forecast in the current round is finished; if not, returning to the step to issue a three-level lightning forecast; before the step of calculating the atmospheric electric field fluctuation reference value of the forecast area at the first time point, the lightning forecast method further includes: judging whether a forecast judging program is started or not; if not, entering the step to finish the lightning forecast in the current round; and if so, entering the step to calculate the atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at the first time point.
Optionally, the step of judging whether to issue the first-stage lightning forecast based on the first-stage continuous time to reach standard and the first-stage effective number to reach standard includes: issuing a first-stage lightning forecast under the condition that the first-stage standard-reaching continuous time is longer than 0 minute and less than or equal to 1 minute and the number of the first-stage standard-reaching effective points is greater than or equal to 1 and less than 5; the step of judging whether to issue the second-level lightning forecast or not based on the second-level continuous time reaching the standard and the second-level effective points reaching the standard is as follows: issuing a secondary lightning forecast under the condition that the secondary standard-reaching continuous time is more than 0 minute and less than or equal to 3 minutes and the number of the secondary standard-reaching effective points is more than or equal to 5 and less than 9; the step of judging whether to issue the three-level thunder forecast or not based on the three-level continuous time reaching the standard and the three-level effective points reaching the standard is as follows: under the condition that the three-level up-to-standard continuous time is longer than 0 minute and less than or equal to 5 minutes and the three-level up-to-standard effective points are greater than or equal to 9, issuing three-level lightning forecast; selecting the empirical value range in the preset atmosphere electric field change rate threshold value in the empirical value range to be more than or equal to 0.01kV/m & s and less than 0.08kV/m & s.
The invention also provides a lightning forecasting device. The lightning forecast device comprises: the lightning monitoring device is used for monitoring electric field parameters of the target area; the processor is used for realizing each program and controlling the lightning monitoring device to carry out monitoring operation; at least one memory for storing at least one program; the at least one program, when executed by the at least one processor, causes the lightning forecast device to implement the method of any of the preceding.
In the invention, the thunder and lightning forecasting method adopts the current atmospheric electric field change rate to judge whether the thunder and lightning forecasting is needed or not, and further adopts the atmospheric electric field floating reference value to calculate the current atmospheric electric field change rate, so that the real-time dynamic change of the atmospheric electric field can be reflected more accurately, and the more accurate thunder and lightning forecasting is realized. In addition, the invention further monitors and adjusts the preset atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value selected in the empirical value range to calibrate the threshold value, thereby further improving the forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, the invention provides a plurality of stages of mutually continuous forecasting modes, and the modes of accumulating monitoring data and continuing forecasting results are adopted among all stages of forecasting modes, so that the low-efficiency results that the monitoring data and the forecasting results of all stages of forecasting modes are independent and have no bearing relation with each other are avoided, and the monitoring and forecasting efficiency can be further improved.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings of the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is apparent that the drawings in the following description only relate to some embodiments of the present invention and are not limiting on the present invention.
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram of a forecast scene of a lightning forecast device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic functional block diagram of a lightning prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart of a lightning forecasting method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 4 is a flowchart illustrating a step of the lightning forecasting method in the embodiment of FIG. 3.
FIG. 5 is a detailed flowchart of another step of the lightning forecasting method in the embodiment of FIG. 3.
Fig. 6 is a schematic flow chart of a lightning forecasting procedure in the lightning forecasting method in the embodiment of fig. 3.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. It is to be understood that the embodiments described are only a few embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the described embodiments of the invention without any inventive step, are within the scope of protection of the invention.
Fig. 1 illustrates a lightning forecast scenario of a lightning forecast device 900 according to an embodiment of the present invention. The lightning prediction device 900 is configured to monitor electric field parameters of the target area 800, so as to predict lightning occurrence of the target area 800. Referring collectively to fig. 2, lightning forecasting device 900 includes a lightning monitoring apparatus 902, a processor 904, and a memory 906. The lightning monitoring device 902 is configured to monitor electric field parameters of the target area 800, and the processor 902 is configured to implement various programs and control operations of the memory 906 and the lightning forecasting device 902. The memory 906 is used for storing at least one program which, when executed by the processor 904, the lightning prediction device 900 may implement the lightning prediction method provided by the invention.
Referring further to fig. 3, a lightning forecasting method according to an embodiment of the present invention specifically includes the following steps 102-120.
And 104, calculating an atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at the first time point.
And 106, monitoring the atmospheric electric field value of the second time point of the forecast area.
And step 108, determining an atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value for forecasting judgment. Wherein, the atmospheric electric field change rate threshold refers to the allowable electric field change range in non-thunderstorm weather.
And 110, calculating an electric field difference value between the atmospheric electric field value and the atmospheric electric field floating reference value.
The time difference between the first point in time and the second point in time is calculated, step 112. In the present embodiment, the time difference between the first time point and the second time point is set to 1 second, so that the atmospheric electric field change rate monitoring can be performed more rapidly and sensitively. In other embodiments, the time duration between the first time point and the second time point may be set to other values, such as 2 seconds, 3 seconds, and so on.
And step 114, calculating the current atmospheric electric field change rate based on the electric field difference value and the time difference.
And step 116, judging whether the current atmospheric electric field change rate is greater than an atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value. If yes, go to step 118; if not, return to step 104.
And step 118, entering a thunder and lightning forecasting program.
And step 120, ending the lightning forecast in the current round.
In order to provide a calculation method for the atmospheric electric field floating reference value, the step 104 in this embodiment further specifically includes the following steps 202-208.
A plurality of first atmospheric electric field values are monitored over a first time period, step 204. In this embodiment, 250 first atmospheric electric field values are monitored within 1 second. In other embodiments, other numbers of first atmospheric electric field values may be monitored within 1 second, and 250 first atmospheric electric field values may be monitored within other time periods, such as 2 seconds. The step is mainly used for representing that the change amplitude of the atmospheric electric field is smaller than a certain range of floating average value in a first time period.
And 208, processing the residual first atmospheric electric field value to obtain an atmospheric electric field floating reference value. In practice, the average of the remaining first atmospheric electric field values may be calculated, and the average may be determined as the atmospheric electric field float reference value.
To provide a method for obtaining the threshold of the change rate of the atmospheric electric field, step 108 in this embodiment further includes the following steps 302-310.
And 304, testing the forecasting sensitivity of the forecasting system based on a preset atmospheric electric field change rate threshold. In this embodiment, the forecast sensitivity is specifically determined by the forecast hit rate; the hit times and the missing report times of the lightning forecast in a period of time need to be counted, and the actual forecast hit rate is calculated by dividing the hit times by the sum of the hit times and the missing report times.
In step 310, the atmospheric electric field change rate threshold determined in step 306 is used.
To provide a specific operation mode of the lightning forecasting procedure, the step 118 in this embodiment further includes the following steps 402-426. In the present embodiment, the lightning forecast level is divided into three levels. Wherein a first level indicates that lightning activity will occur, and possibly lightning; second level indicates that the probability of lightning is high; three levels indicate impending lightning. In other implementations, one, two, or more than three lightning forecast levels may be set, as desired.
And step 402, starting timing, and counting the first-level standard-reaching continuous time of the change rate of the atmospheric electric field.
And step 404, counting the number of first-level effective standard-reaching points of the change rate of the atmospheric electric field.
And step 406, judging whether to issue a first-level lightning forecast or not based on the first-level standard-reaching continuous time and the first-level standard-reaching effective points. If yes, go to step 408; if not, return to step 104. In this embodiment, the first-stage lightning forecast is issued when the first-stage continuous time of reaching the standard is greater than 0 minute and less than or equal to 1 minute, and the number of the first-stage effective points of reaching the standard is greater than or equal to 1 and less than 5.
And step 410, continuously counting the second-level continuous time of reaching the standard based on the first-level continuous time of reaching the standard, and continuously counting the second-level effective points of reaching the standard based on the effective points of reaching the standard.
And step 412, judging whether to issue a secondary lightning forecast or not based on the secondary standard-reaching continuous time and the secondary standard-reaching effective points. If yes, go to step 414; if not, go to step 416. In this embodiment, the second-level lightning forecast is issued when the second-level successful continuous time is longer than 0 minute and less than or equal to 3 minutes, and the number of the second-level successful points is longer than or equal to 5 and less than 9.
At step 414, a secondary lightning forecast is issued, and the process proceeds to step 418.
And 418, continuously counting the three-level continuous time of reaching the standard based on the two-level continuous time of reaching the standard, and continuously counting the three-level effective points of reaching the standard based on the two-level effective points of reaching the standard.
And step 420, judging whether to issue the three-level lightning forecast or not based on the three-level standard-reaching continuous time and the three-level standard-reaching effective points. If yes, go to step 422; if not, go to step 424. In this embodiment, under the condition that the three-level reaching continuous time is greater than 0 minute and less than or equal to 5 minutes, and the three-level reaching effective points are greater than or equal to 9, the three-level lightning forecast is issued.
At step 422, a three-level lightning forecast is issued, and the process proceeds to step 426.
And 426, judging whether the third-stage forecast time reaches a preset standard time length. If yes, go to step 120; if not, return to step 422. In the present embodiment, the preset standard time period is set to 15 minutes. In other embodiments, the preset standard time period may be set to other time periods such as 5 minutes and 20 minutes according to actual needs.
In this embodiment, the preset standard time durations in step 416, step 424 and step 426 are the same, and in other embodiments, the preset standard time durations in step 416, step 424 and step 426 may be different.
In the invention, the thunder and lightning forecasting method adopts the current atmospheric electric field change rate to judge whether the thunder and lightning forecasting is needed or not, and further adopts the atmospheric electric field floating reference value to calculate the current atmospheric electric field change rate, so that the real-time dynamic change of the atmospheric electric field can be reflected more accurately, and the more accurate thunder and lightning forecasting is realized. In addition, the invention further monitors and adjusts the preset atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value selected in the empirical value range to calibrate the threshold value, thereby further improving the forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, the invention provides a plurality of stages of mutually continuous forecasting modes, and the modes of accumulating monitoring data and continuing forecasting results are adopted among all stages of forecasting modes, so that the low-efficiency results that the monitoring data and the forecasting results of all stages of forecasting modes are independent and have no bearing relation with each other are avoided, and the monitoring and forecasting efficiency can be further improved.
While the invention has been particularly shown and described with reference to exemplary embodiments thereof, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the details of construction and various changes in form and details may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Accordingly, the scope of the present disclosure is not limited to the above-described embodiments, but should be determined by the claims and the equivalents thereof.
Claims (10)
1. A lightning prediction method for performing lightning prediction in a prediction area, the method comprising the steps of:
calculating an atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at a first time point;
monitoring an atmospheric electric field value of the forecast area at a second time point;
determining an atmospheric electric field change rate threshold;
calculating an electric field difference value between the atmospheric electric field value and the atmospheric electric field floating reference value;
calculating a time difference between the first time point and the second time point;
determining a current atmospheric electric field change rate based on the electric field difference value and the time difference;
judging whether the current atmospheric electric field change rate is greater than the atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value or not;
if yes, entering a thunder and lightning forecasting program;
ending the thunder and lightning forecast in the current round;
if not, returning to the step to calculate the atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at the first time point.
2. The lightning prediction method of claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the reference value of the atmospheric electric field fluctuation in the prediction area at the first time point further comprises:
determining a first time period by taking the first time point as a center;
monitoring a plurality of first atmospheric electric field values over the first time period;
removing a maximum value and a minimum value of the plurality of first atmospheric electric field values;
and processing the residual first atmospheric electric field value to obtain the atmospheric electric field floating reference value.
3. The lightning prediction method of claim 2, wherein the step of determining the threshold rate of change of the atmospheric electric field further comprises:
selecting a preset atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value within an empirical value range;
testing and forecasting sensitivity based on the preset atmospheric electric field change rate threshold;
judging whether the forecast sensitivity meets a preset standard or not;
if yes, determining the atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value;
if not, adjusting the preset atmospheric electric field change rate threshold value, and returning to the step to judge whether the forecast sensitivity meets the preset standard or not.
4. The lightning prediction method of claim 3, wherein the lightning prediction program further comprises:
starting timing, and counting the first-stage standard-reaching continuous time of the change rate of the atmospheric electric field;
and counting the number of first-level effective standard-reaching points of the change rate of the atmospheric electric field.
5. The lightning prediction method of claim 4, wherein the lightning prediction program further comprises:
judging whether to issue a primary lightning forecast or not based on the primary standard-reaching continuous time and the primary standard-reaching effective points;
if yes, entering the step of issuing a first-stage lightning forecast;
if not, returning to the step to calculate the atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at the first time point.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein after said step of issuing a first stage lightning forecast, said lightning forecast program further comprises:
continuously counting second-level continuous time of reaching standards based on the first-level continuous time of reaching standards, and continuously counting second-level effective points of reaching standards based on the first-level effective points of reaching standards;
judging whether to issue a secondary lightning forecast or not based on the secondary standard-reaching continuous time and the secondary standard-reaching effective points;
if yes, entering the step of issuing a secondary lightning forecast;
if not, entering the step of judging whether the primary forecast time of the primary lightning forecast reaches the preset standard time length or not;
if yes, the step is carried out, and the lightning forecast in the current round is finished;
if not, returning to the step to issue the primary lightning forecast.
7. The method of claim 6, wherein after said step of issuing a secondary lightning forecast, said lightning forecast program further comprises:
continuously counting three-level continuous time of reaching standards based on the two-level continuous time of reaching standards, and continuously counting three-level effective points of reaching standards based on the two-level effective points of reaching standards;
judging whether to issue a three-level lightning forecast or not based on the three-level reaching continuous time and the three-level reaching effective points;
if yes, entering the step of issuing three-level lightning forecast;
if not, entering the step of judging whether the forecast time of the secondary lightning forecast reaches the preset standard time length or not;
if yes, the step is carried out, and the lightning forecast in the current round is finished;
if not, returning to the step to issue a secondary lightning forecast.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein after said step of issuing three levels of lightning forecasts, said lightning forecast program further comprises:
judging whether the forecast time of the three-level lightning forecast reaches a preset standard time length or not;
if yes, the step is carried out, and the lightning forecast in the current round is finished;
if not, returning to the step to issue a three-level lightning forecast;
before the step of calculating the atmospheric electric field fluctuation reference value of the forecast area at the first time point, the lightning forecast method further includes:
judging whether a forecast judging program is started or not;
if not, entering the step to finish the lightning forecast in the current round;
and if so, entering the step to calculate the atmospheric electric field floating reference value of the forecast area at the first time point.
9. The method of claim 8, wherein the step of determining whether to issue the primary lightning forecast based on the primary qualified continuous time and the primary qualified effective points comprises the following specific criteria: issuing a first-stage lightning forecast under the condition that the first-stage standard-reaching continuous time is longer than 0 minute and less than or equal to 1 minute and the number of the first-stage standard-reaching effective points is greater than or equal to 1 and less than 5;
the step of judging whether to issue the second-level lightning forecast or not based on the second-level continuous time reaching the standard and the second-level effective points reaching the standard is as follows: issuing a secondary lightning forecast under the condition that the secondary standard-reaching continuous time is more than 0 minute and less than or equal to 3 minutes and the number of the secondary standard-reaching effective points is more than or equal to 5 and less than 9;
the step of judging whether to issue the three-level thunder forecast or not based on the three-level continuous time reaching the standard and the three-level effective points reaching the standard is as follows: under the condition that the three-level up-to-standard continuous time is longer than 0 minute and less than or equal to 5 minutes and the three-level up-to-standard effective points are greater than or equal to 9, issuing three-level lightning forecast;
selecting the empirical value range in the preset atmosphere electric field change rate threshold value in the empirical value range to be more than or equal to 0.01kV/m & s and less than 0.08kV/m & s.
10. A lightning prediction device, characterized in that it comprises:
the lightning monitoring device is used for monitoring electric field parameters of the target area;
the processor is used for realizing each program and controlling the lightning monitoring device to carry out monitoring operation;
at least one memory for storing at least one program;
the at least one program, when executed by the at least one processor, causes the lightning forecast device to implement the method of any of claims 1-9.
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| CN113567763A (en) * | 2021-08-09 | 2021-10-29 | 厦门大恒科技有限公司 | Lightning early warning method and lightning early warning device |
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- 2021-11-04 CN CN202111298633.1A patent/CN113985148A/en active Pending
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN106353604A (en) * | 2016-08-31 | 2017-01-25 | 国网电力科学研究院武汉南瑞有限责任公司 | Method for early warning thunder and lightning on basis of automatic tracking of atmospheric electric field background noise |
| CN108680798A (en) * | 2018-04-02 | 2018-10-19 | 北京华云东方探测技术有限公司 | Lightning monitoring and early warning method and system |
| CN108711266A (en) * | 2018-06-01 | 2018-10-26 | 四川省气候中心 | Thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short to face local method for early warning |
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