CN113935568A - Auxiliary decision-making method for making purchasing strategy in productivity recovery stage - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the field of capacity prejudgment, in particular to the field of capacity prejudgment in a capacity recovery stage, and more particularly relates to an auxiliary decision-making method for making a purchasing strategy in the capacity recovery stage. In the productivity recovery stage, the capacity recovery of the supplier is accurately prejudged in the whole process, so that the delivery risk is reduced, and the effective implementation of power grid construction is ensured.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of productivity prejudgment, in particular to the field of productivity prejudgment in a productivity recovery stage, and more particularly relates to an auxiliary decision method for making a purchasing strategy in the productivity recovery stage.
Background
The productivity recovery stage refers to a stage in which an enterprise gradually recovers to normal production after the enterprise encounters a sudden condition (such as an epidemic) shutdown or reduced production and a factor causing the shutdown or reduced production is eliminated. In the recovery stage of the productivity, since the productivity is gradually improved, but the productivity is also in constant change, how to accurately pre-determine the productivity of the supplier, so as to adjust the procurement plan in advance, and ensure that the demand is successfully met is a key issue concerned by the buyer in the recovery stage of the productivity of the supplier.
However, since the assessment of the capacity of the supplier relates to the privacy of the enterprise such as orders and production plans, and the supplier is likely to provide false information for pursuing the benefit maximization, it is necessary to find an objective method capable of accurately evaluating the capacity of the capacity recovery stage of the supplier, so as to prejudge the recovery degree of the supplier, help the buyer to find out the possible demand supply problem early and adjust the purchasing plan.
In view of the fact that a certain incidence relation exists between the electricity consumption and the material capacity, the electricity consumption information has the characteristics of being difficult to counterfeit, easy to examine, convenient to obtain, capable of reflecting the actual production situation and the like, the supplier capacity and the operation situation can be effectively monitored and early warned by developing and analyzing the relation between the electricity consumption and the capacity.
At present, a plurality of scholars develop researches on the correlation between the electricity consumption and the production and operation of the power enterprises by means of a big data analysis technology, and the theoretical feasibility of monitoring the productivity of suppliers based on the electricity quantity data of the suppliers is proved. However, a decision method for guiding a demander to make and adjust a purchasing strategy in a productivity recovery stage through quantitative research of monitoring and early warning the productivity of a supplier in real time by using the electricity consumption is still lacking at present.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of how to develop an accurate, effective and reliable prejudgment model based on the large electric power data, so that the capacity recovery condition of a supplier in a productivity recovery stage can be accurately prejudged.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention discloses an assistant decision-making method for making a purchasing strategy in a productivity recovery stage, which comprises the following steps:
s1: constructing a multi-dimensional index model based on basic power consumption;
the multi-dimensional index model comprises an index model with two dimensions, namely a productivity water level height index and a productivity accumulated recovery index;
the productivity water level index comprises two index models of the compound productivity amount (historical peak value) and the compound productivity amount (lunar calendar synchronization), and is specifically calculated according to the following formula:
the percentage of the double-generation electricity (historical peak value) — (the current day electricity consumption-the basic electricity consumption)/(the historical single day peak electricity consumption-the basic electricity consumption);
the compound electricity yield (lunar calendar synchronization) ═ electricity consumption on the same day-electricity consumption basic electricity consumption)/(last-year lunar calendar synchronization electricity consumption-electricity consumption basic electricity consumption);
the accumulated capacity recovery index is compared with the same-period power consumption by the accumulated output of the supplier, and is specifically calculated according to the following formula:
the accumulated output% (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is (total power consumption from the first ten to the evaluation day of the lunar calendar year in the current year-accumulated basic power consumption)/(total power consumption from the first ten to the evaluation day of the lunar calendar year in the last year-accumulated basic power consumption);
s2: acquiring electric quantity data of different suppliers of a certain material in an order;
s3: respectively substituting the electric quantity data of different suppliers into the index model constructed by the S1 for calculation;
s4: according to the index model calculation result, the relative data analysis is carried out on the results of different suppliers in a cross comparison mode,
and outputting a judgment result according to the following mode:
(1) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is also high, and the electric quantity of the compound production (the historical peak value) is high, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, the possibility of finishing the job is that the job is finished, the surplus capacity exists, and the order can be placed preferentially;
(2) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is also high, and the electric quantity of the compound production (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, the surplus capacity is possible, the order can be preferentially placed, and according to further confirmation of executing the order, the current annual order quantity is the same as the last year, and the capacity is relatively surplus; if the order is relatively more this year, there may be a risk of delivery;
(3) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the re-production electric quantity percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier data is considered to be wrong and needs to be further verified;
(4) when the accumulated output percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, and the supplier does not need to rush to work and can give priority to ordering;
(5) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is high and the electric quantity of the compound production percent (historical peak value) is high, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered not to meet the demand, no surplus capacity exists in full load driving, the current order delivery date needs to be paid attention to, and the order is not recommended to be placed;
(6) when the accumulated output percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) of a supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) is high and the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered not to meet the demand, the supplier is not fully loaded to drive a job, the order is not recommended to be placed, the delivery condition needs to be concerned, and according to the further verification of the executed order, the current year order is less than the last year, and the driver does not need to be driven; if the orders are relatively more in this year, the capacity recovery may have certain difficulty;
(7) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the re-production electric quantity percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier data is considered to be wrong and needs to be further verified;
(8) when the accumulated output% (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production% (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the electric quantity of the compound production% (historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to be unsatisfied with the requirement and the compound production degree is low, the order is not recommended to be placed, and whether the delivery risk exists needs to be paid attention;
s5: according to the analysis result of the data in the step S4, the capacity recovery conditions of different suppliers and the proposal of placing orders, selecting the suppliers meeting the requirements to place orders;
s6: constructing a productivity rise-fall speed index, judging the productivity rise-fall speed index by the nearly three-day productivity recovery and acceleration, and specifically calculating according to the following formula:
the recovery increase rate of the energy production in the last three days is equal to (the current day electricity consumption-the previous day electricity consumption)/the previous day electricity consumption;
s7: tracking the power consumption data of a supplier who orders a certain material, and judging the possibility of delivering the order goods by the supplier according to the capacity fluctuation speed index,
vn is (Pn-Pn-1)/Pn-1, (n is a natural number which is more than or equal to 2), wherein Pn represents the electricity consumption of the nth day; vn represents the energy production recovery acceleration rate calculated on the nth day in the last three days;
the supplier daily production M is calculated from Vn,
assuming that the second daily production amount M2 is M1(1+ V2) is M1(1+ (P2-P1)/P1);
third production capacity M3 ═ M1(1+ V2) (1+ V3) ═ M1(1+ (P2-P1)/P1) (1+ (P3-P2)/P2);
by analogy, the yield of the current day on any day is obtained,
Mn＝M1(1+V2)(1+V3)……(1+Vn)＝M1(1+(P2-P1)/P1)(1+(P3-P2)/P2)…… (1+(Pn-Pn-1)/Pn-1)；
forecast days to return to production DProduction of＝(MGeneral assemblyM1-M2-M3- … … Mn)/Mn, wherein MGeneral assemblyTo total order, then DProduction ofCompared with the delivery date Dd of the order,
(1) if D isProduction ofIf the current production speed of the supplier can meet the project requirement date, the Dd-Dn is less than or equal to;
(2) if D isProduction ofIf Dd-Dn is greater than or equal to one half of the delivery date of the order, the supplier is considered to be in the initial stage of production recovery, the index of the speed of the rise and fall of the productivity is considered to be in the rise period, and no early warning is given at the moment;
(3) if D isProduction ofIf the current production speed of the supplier is more than Dd-Dn and n is more than one half of the delivery date of the order, the current production speed of the supplier cannot meet the date of the project demand, and the early warning prompts relevant departments of the power company to make relevant resource allocation;
s8: according to the analysis result of the delivery by date of the supplier obtained in S7, the procurement strategy is adjusted,
if the current production speed of the supplier can meet the project requirement date, continuously tracking the electricity consumption data until the order period is finished;
if the supplier is in the initial stage of production recovery and the speed index of the rise and fall of the capacity is in the rise stage, the data of the power consumption is continuously tracked, and the data D is continuously compared according to the speed index of the rise and fall of the capacity disclosed in S7Production ofComparing with the order delivery date Dd until the judgment result is (1), and entering normal tracking until the order delivery date is finished; if the judgment result is changed to (3), processing according to the condition of (3);
if the current production speed of the supplier cannot meet the date of the project requirement, early warning prompts relevant departments of the power company to make relevant resource allocation, and purchasing strategy adjustment is needed;
s9: when the purchasing strategy is adjusted,
firstly, acquiring supplier electric quantity data capable of producing the material in the mode of S2, and bringing the supplier electric quantity data into the multi-dimensional index model of S1 to obtain a model calculation result;
then, according to the index model calculation result, the relative data analysis is carried out on the results of different supplier with the supplementary notes by adopting a cross comparison mode,
and outputting a judgment result according to the following mode:
(1) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the re-production amount percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is also high, and the re-production amount percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier is considered to be likely to execute more orders and close to full-load operation, and the order addition is not recommended;
(2) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is also high, and the electric quantity of the compound production (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, the surplus capacity is possible, the order can be added preferentially, the order is further confirmed to be executed, the current annual order quantity is the same as the last year, and the capacity is relatively surplus; if the order is relatively more this year, there may be a risk of delivery;
(3) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the re-production electric quantity percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier data is considered to be wrong and needs to be further verified;
(4) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the re-production (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the electric quantity of the re-production (historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, and the order can be added preferentially without driving up;
(5) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is high and the electric quantity of the compound production (the historical peak value) is high, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered not to meet the demand, no surplus capacity exists in the full load driving, and no order is suggested to be added;
(6) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of a supplier is low, the electric quantity of the re-production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is high and the electric quantity of the re-production (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered not to meet the demand, the supplier is driven without the load, the order addition is not suggested, and the current year order is less than the last year, so that the driver is not required; if the orders are relatively more in this year, the capacity recovery may have certain difficulty;
(7) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the re-production electric quantity percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier data is considered to be wrong and needs to be further verified;
(8) when the accumulated output% (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the re-production electric quantity% (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity% (historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to be not satisfied with the requirement and the re-production degree is low, and no additional order is suggested;
s10: according to the analysis result of the data in the step S9, the capacity recovery conditions of different suppliers and the proposal of the additional order, selecting the supplier meeting the requirements to order;
s11: adjusting the list of suppliers who have placed orders, and judging the possibility that the suppliers who have placed orders deliver ordered goods according to the date according to S7 and S8; when the delivery early warning occurs, adding orders according to S9 and S10; ensuring that all the materials of the order are obtained according to time.
Further, the invention also discloses a method for calculating the basic power consumption, which comprises the following steps:
j1: selecting historical daily electricity consumption data of a supplier to be analyzed as a total amount of samples, randomly selecting k daily electricity consumption data samples as initial clustering center points, and dividing each sample into a nearest clustering center according to a certain selection standard;
j2: calculating the average value of each cluster;
j3: calculating the distance between each sample and the central samples according to the average value of each cluster, namely the central samples;
j4: dividing each sample in the data set into a class with the minimum distance according to the distance from the sample to the k central points;
j5: recalculating the average value of each changed cluster;
j6: repeating the steps J2 to J5 until no change occurs in each cluster;
j7: and after the final clustering result is determined, selecting the minimum value of the clustering center point from the k clusters as the basic power consumption of the supplier.
Further preferably, the historical daily power consumption data in the step J1 is daily power consumption data of the last agricultural calendar year.
Further preferably, when the evaluation day date and the lunar calendar contemporaneous day have a working day and a non-working day with a cycle beat dislocation, the evaluation day date and the lunar calendar contemporaneous day are subjected to offset processing, the lunar calendar contemporaneous day is taken as a center, the front and the back are taken as one day respectively, and the maximum electricity consumption value in the three days is taken as the contemporaneous daily electricity consumption data.
Further preferably, the present invention further discloses that in step S10, the order-placed suppliers are preferentially selected for addition, and if none of the order-placed suppliers satisfies the condition for adding an order, a new supplier is selected for adding an order.
The method takes the corrected basic power consumption as an evaluation standard, and has more scientificity and high reliability compared with extensive direct comparison. Meanwhile, the invention fully considers the production planning characteristics of China, takes the lunar calendar as the comparison date standard, and can fully ensure the effectiveness and the accuracy of comparison at the same time by a mode of offset processing. More importantly, the invention discloses various index models creatively, guides a decision maker to evaluate whether the individual supplier has delivery risk during purchasing through cross comparison analysis of each index, reduces the influence of insufficient capacity of the supplier on the power grid construction, realizes accurate prejudgment and effective early warning on the supplier through the capacity fluctuation speed index, ensures accurate prejudgment on the capacity of the supplier in a capacity recovery stage, reduces the delivery risk during order execution, and adjusts a purchasing strategy in time when the early warning occurs, thereby ensuring the effective implementation of the power grid construction.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a diagram illustrating the% of the power produced by different suppliers (historical peak value).
FIG. 2 is a diagram of the amount of double generation (lunar calendar synchronization) of different suppliers.
FIG. 3 is a graph of cumulative output% (lunar synchronization) from different suppliers.
Detailed Description
In order that the invention may be better understood, we now provide further explanation of the invention with reference to specific examples.
Take 13 suppliers of a certain material in Jiangsu province as an example. It is out of production during the period of 3/2/2020 to 9/2/2020. Production was gradually resumed from 2/10/2020. In order to predict the recovery of the capacity after the recovery of the power generation, the power company analyzes the power consumption data of the previous year (the agricultural calendar year).
Preferably, in this embodiment, the calculating the basic power consumption by using a clustering algorithm includes the following steps:
j1: selecting historical daily electricity consumption data of a supplier to be analyzed as a total amount of samples, randomly selecting k daily electricity consumption data samples as initial clustering center points, and dividing each sample into a nearest clustering center according to a certain selection standard;
j2: calculating the average value of each cluster;
j3: calculating the distance between each sample and the central samples according to the average value of each cluster, namely the central samples;
j4: dividing each sample in the data set into a class with the minimum distance according to the distance from the sample to the k central points;
j5: recalculating the average value of each changed cluster;
j6: repeating the steps J2 to J5 until no change occurs in each cluster;
j7: and after the final clustering result is determined, selecting the minimum value of the clustering center point from the k clusters as the basic power consumption of the supplier.
And respectively obtaining the basic electricity consumption of each supplier after the calculation.
In order to predict the capacity recovery situation of each supplier, provide reference for order signing, select the production capacity of each supplier to be gradually recovered, randomly select 3, 15 and 2020 days as investigation days, and calculate the data of the compound production capacity (historical peak value) and the data of the compound production capacity (lunar calendar synchronization) of each supplier and the accumulated production data of the suppliers according to the following modes:
the percentage of the double-generation electricity (historical peak value) — (the current day electricity consumption-the basic electricity consumption)/(the historical single day peak electricity consumption-the basic electricity consumption);
the compound electricity yield (lunar calendar synchronization) ═ electricity consumption on the same day-electricity consumption basic electricity consumption)/(last-year lunar calendar synchronization electricity consumption-electricity consumption basic electricity consumption);
and calculating the accumulated output% (lunar calendar synchronization) data of each supplier (total power consumption from the first ten of the lunar calendar year to the evaluation day of the current year-accumulated basic power consumption)/(total power consumption from the first ten of the lunar calendar year to the evaluation day of the same year-accumulated basic power consumption).
The results are shown in fig. 1 to 3.
Different suppliers' regenerated electric quantity (historical peak value), regenerated electric quantity (lunar calendar synchronization) and accumulated output (lunar calendar synchronization) are averaged to obtain a total average value shown in the figure, then the suppliers higher than the average value consider the corresponding index parameters to be high, and the suppliers lower than the average value consider the corresponding index parameters to be low.
As shown in fig. 1-3, in fig. 1, suppliers C, E, F, G, K, L are all above average; in fig. 2, suppliers B, C, F, K, L are all above average; in fig. 3, suppliers B, C, D, G, H, I, K, L, M are all above average;
then, cross comparison is carried out, and a judgment result is output according to the following mode:
(1) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is also high, and the electric quantity of the compound production (the historical peak value) is high, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, the possibility of finishing the job is that the job is finished, the surplus capacity exists, and the order can be placed preferentially;
(2) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is also high, and the electric quantity of the compound production (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, the surplus capacity is possible, the order can be preferentially placed, and according to further confirmation of executing the order, the current annual order quantity is the same as the last year, and the capacity is relatively surplus; if the order is relatively more this year, there may be a risk of delivery;
(3) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the re-production electric quantity percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier data is considered to be wrong and needs to be further verified;
(4) when the accumulated output percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, and the supplier does not need to rush to work and can give priority to ordering;
(5) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is high and the electric quantity of the compound production percent (historical peak value) is high, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered not to meet the demand, no surplus capacity exists in full load driving, the current order delivery date needs to be paid attention to, and the order is not recommended to be placed;
(6) when the accumulated output percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) of a supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) is high and the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered not to meet the demand, the supplier is not fully loaded to drive a job, the order is not recommended to be placed, the delivery condition needs to be concerned, and according to the further verification of the executed order, the current year order is less than the last year, and the driver does not need to be driven; if the orders are relatively more in this year, the capacity recovery may have certain difficulty;
(7) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the re-production electric quantity percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier data is considered to be wrong and needs to be further verified;
(8) when the accumulated output% (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production% (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the electric quantity of the compound production% (historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to be unsatisfied with the requirement and the compound production degree is low, the order is not recommended to be placed, and whether the delivery risk exists needs to be paid attention;
after comprehensive consideration, selecting a supplier C to sign an order;
a capacity ramp rate index is then constructed to monitor the order digestion capacity of supplier C. The productivity rise-fall speed index is judged by the yield recovery and acceleration rate of nearly three days, and is specifically calculated according to the following formula:
the recovery increase rate of the energy production in the last three days is equal to (the current day electricity consumption-the previous day electricity consumption)/the previous day electricity consumption;
tracking the electricity consumption data of the supplier C who signs the order of the materials, judging the possibility of delivering the order goods according to the date according to the capacity fluctuation speed index,
vn is (Pn-Pn-1)/Pn-1, (n is a natural number which is more than or equal to 2), wherein Pn represents the electricity consumption of the nth day; vn represents the energy production recovery acceleration rate calculated on the nth day in the last three days;
the supplier daily production M is calculated from Vn,
assuming that the second daily production amount M2 is M1(1+ V2) is M1(1+ (P2-P1)/P1);
third production capacity M3 ═ M1(1+ V2) (1+ V3) ═ M1(1+ (P2-P1)/P1) (1+ (P3-P2)/P2);
by analogy, the yield of the current day on any day is obtained,
Mn＝M1(1+V2)(1+V3)……(1+Vn)＝M1(1+(P2-P1)/P1)(1+(P3-P2)/P2)…… (1+(Pn-Pn-1)/Pn-1)；
forecast days to return to production DProduction of＝(MGeneral assemblyM1-M2-M3- … … Mn)/Mn, wherein MGeneral assemblyTo total order, then DProduction ofCompared with the delivery date Dd of the order,
(1) if D isProduction ofIf the current production speed of the supplier can meet the project requirement date, the Dd-Dn is less than or equal to;
(2) if D isProduction ofIf Dd-Dn is greater than or equal to one half of the delivery date of the order, the supplier is considered to be in the initial stage of production recovery, the index of the speed of the rise and fall of the productivity is considered to be in the rise period, and no early warning is given at the moment;
(3) if D isProduction ofIf the current production speed of the supplier is more than Dd-Dn and n is more than one half of the delivery date of the order, the current production speed of the supplier cannot meet the date of the project demand, and the early warning prompts relevant departments of the power company to make relevant resource allocation;
the daily power consumption data of the supplier C and the production amount calculated from the power consumption in this embodiment are shown in table 1,
table 1: c supplier signs up from 3 month 15 day, starts producing from 3 month 16 day, and reaches half of order delivery time
The total amount of materials of the order purchased by the power company is 470.
The scheduled order delivery date is one month and the deadline is 4 months and 14 days.
Based on the power consumption, 237.6 units were produced together at half the delivery date (3 months and 30 days). And predicting the capacity of the supplier in 31 days after 3 months. Predict its further need to complete the order DProduction of16.7 days after (470-237.6)/13.9. That is, about 4 months and 16 days, the order can be completed, and the delivery date of the order is exceeded, and an early warning is given.
Supplier C continues to monitor actual power usage 4 months and 14 days ago and calculates its production capacity, as shown in Table 2, to yield 182.5 units of the remaining delivery date.
Table 2: actual power consumption statistics and predicted production conditions for supplier C
According to the analysis result of the scheduled delivery of the supplier, the purchasing strategy is adjusted, if the current production speed of the supplier can meet the project requirement date, the electricity consumption data is continuously tracked until the end of the scheduling period;
if the supplier is in the initial stage of production recovery and the speed index of the rise and fall of the capacity is in the rise stage, the data of the power consumption is continuously tracked, and the data D is continuously compared according to the speed index of the rise and fall of the capacity disclosed in S7Production ofComparing with the order delivery date Dd until the judgment result is (1), and entering normal tracking until the order delivery date is finished; if the judgment result is changed to (3), processing according to the condition of (3);
if the current production speed of the supplier cannot meet the date of the project requirement, early warning prompts relevant departments of the power company to make relevant resource allocation, and purchasing strategy adjustment is needed;
in this embodiment, since the C provider cannot meet the date of the project requirement, it is necessary to adjust the purchasing strategy, coordinate the production and supply of other providers, and continuously track the data of the power consumption until the end of the order period.
Finally, supplier C is delivered in 4 months and 14 days to complete 420 production tasks, and the total order amount is not completed in the delivery date, which is consistent with the prejudgment. Therefore, the method disclosed by the invention can realize accurate pre-judgment of the supplier supply condition, has important significance for the adjustment of the purchasing strategy and effectively avoids project delay caused by delivery according to the non-scheduled delivery.
What has been described above is a specific embodiment of the present invention. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various improvements and modifications without departing from the principle of the present invention, and such improvements and modifications are also considered to be within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. An aid decision method for making a purchasing strategy in a productivity recovery stage is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1: constructing a multi-dimensional index model based on basic power consumption;
the multi-dimensional index model comprises an index model with two dimensions, namely a productivity water level height index and a productivity accumulated recovery index;
the productivity water level index comprises two index models of the compound productivity amount (historical peak value) and the compound productivity amount (lunar calendar synchronization), and is specifically calculated according to the following formula:
the percentage of the double-generation electricity (historical peak value) — (the current day electricity consumption-the basic electricity consumption)/(the historical single day peak electricity consumption-the basic electricity consumption);
the compound electricity yield (lunar calendar synchronization) ═ electricity consumption on the same day-electricity consumption basic electricity consumption)/(last-year lunar calendar synchronization electricity consumption-electricity consumption basic electricity consumption);
the accumulated capacity recovery index is compared with the same-period power consumption by the accumulated output of the supplier, and is specifically calculated according to the following formula:
the accumulated output% (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is (total power consumption from the first ten to the evaluation day of the lunar calendar year in the current year-accumulated basic power consumption)/(total power consumption from the first ten to the evaluation day of the lunar calendar year in the last year-accumulated basic power consumption);
s2: acquiring electric quantity data of different suppliers of a certain material in an order;
s3: respectively substituting the electric quantity data of different suppliers into the index model constructed by the S1 for calculation;
s4: according to the index model calculation result, the relative data analysis is carried out on the results of different suppliers in a cross comparison mode,
and outputting a judgment result according to the following mode:
(1) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is also high, and the electric quantity of the compound production (the historical peak value) is high, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, the possibility of finishing the job is that the job is finished, the surplus capacity exists, and the order can be placed preferentially;
(2) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is also high, and the electric quantity of the compound production (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, the surplus capacity is possible, the order can be preferentially placed, and according to further confirmation of executing the order, the current annual order quantity is the same as the last year, and the capacity is relatively surplus; if the order is relatively more this year, there may be a risk of delivery;
(3) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the re-production electric quantity percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier data is considered to be wrong and needs to be further verified;
(4) when the accumulated output percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, and the supplier does not need to rush to work and can give priority to ordering;
(5) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is high and the electric quantity of the compound production percent (historical peak value) is high, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered not to meet the demand, no surplus capacity exists in full load driving, the current order delivery date needs to be paid attention to, and the order is not recommended to be placed;
(6) when the accumulated output percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) of a supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the lunar calendar synchronization) is high and the electric quantity of the compound production percent (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered not to meet the demand, the supplier is not fully loaded to drive a job, the order is not recommended to be placed, the delivery condition needs to be concerned, and according to the further verification of the executed order, the current year order is less than the last year, and the driver does not need to be driven; if the orders are relatively more in this year, the capacity recovery may have certain difficulty;
(7) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the re-production electric quantity percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier data is considered to be wrong and needs to be further verified;
(8) when the accumulated output% (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production% (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the electric quantity of the compound production% (historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to be unsatisfied with the requirement and the compound production degree is low, the order is not recommended to be placed, and whether the delivery risk exists needs to be paid attention;
s5: according to the analysis result of the data in the step S4, the capacity recovery conditions of different suppliers and the proposal of placing orders, selecting the suppliers meeting the requirements to place orders;
s6: constructing a productivity rise-fall speed index, judging the productivity rise-fall speed index by the nearly three-day productivity recovery and acceleration, and specifically calculating according to the following formula:
the recovery increase rate of the energy production in the last three days is equal to (the current day electricity consumption-the previous day electricity consumption)/the previous day electricity consumption;
s7: tracking the power consumption data of a supplier who orders a certain material, and judging the possibility of delivering the order goods by the supplier according to the capacity fluctuation speed index,
vn is (Pn-Pn-1)/Pn-1, (n is a natural number which is more than or equal to 2), wherein Pn represents the electricity consumption of the nth day; vn represents the energy production recovery acceleration rate calculated on the nth day in the last three days;
the supplier daily production M is calculated from Vn,
assuming that the second daily production amount M2 is M1(1+ V2) is M1(1+ (P2-P1)/P1);
third production capacity M3 ═ M1(1+ V2) (1+ V3) ═ M1(1+ (P2-P1)/P1) (1+ (P3-P2)/P2);
by analogy, the yield of the current day on any day is obtained,
Mn＝M1(1+V2)(1+V3)……(1+Vn)＝M1(1+(P2-P1)/P1)(1+(P3-P2)/P2)……(1+(Pn-Pn-1)/Pn-1)；
forecast days to return to production DProduction of＝(MGeneral assemblyM1-M2-M3- … … Mn)/Mn, wherein MGeneral assemblyTo total order, then DProduction ofCompared with the delivery date Dd of the order,
(1) if D isProduction ofIf the current production speed of the supplier can meet the project requirement date, the Dd-Dn is less than or equal to;
(2) if D isProduction ofIf Dd-Dn is greater than or equal to one half of the delivery date of the order, the supplier is considered to be in the initial stage of production recovery, the index of the speed of the rise and fall of the productivity is considered to be in the rise period, and no early warning is given at the moment;
(3) if D isProduction ofIf the current production speed of the supplier is more than Dd-Dn and n is more than one half of the delivery date of the order, the current production speed of the supplier cannot meet the date of the project demand, and the early warning prompts relevant departments of the power company to make relevant resource allocation;
s8: according to the analysis result of the delivery by date of the supplier obtained in S7, the procurement strategy is adjusted,
if the current production speed of the supplier can meet the project requirement date, continuously tracking the electricity consumption data until the order period is finished;
if the supplier is in the initial stage of production recovery and the speed index of the rise and fall of the capacity is in the rise stage, the data of the power consumption is continuously tracked, and the data D is continuously compared according to the speed index of the rise and fall of the capacity disclosed in S7Production ofComparing with the order delivery date Dd until the judgment result is (1), and entering normal tracking until the order delivery date is finished; if the judgment result is changed to (3), processing according to the condition of (3);
if the current production speed of the supplier cannot meet the date of the project requirement, early warning prompts relevant departments of the power company to make relevant resource allocation, and purchasing strategy adjustment is needed;
s9: when the purchasing strategy is adjusted,
firstly, acquiring supplier electric quantity data capable of producing the materials according to the mode in S2, and bringing the supplier electric quantity data into the multi-dimensional index model in S1 to obtain a model calculation result;
then, according to the index model calculation result, the relative data analysis is carried out on the results of different supplier with the supplementary notes by adopting a cross comparison mode,
and outputting a judgment result according to the following mode:
(1) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the re-production amount percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is also high, and the re-production amount percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier is considered to be likely to execute more orders and close to full-load operation, and the order addition is not recommended;
(2) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the compound production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is also high, and the electric quantity of the compound production (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, the surplus capacity is possible, the order can be added preferentially, the order is further confirmed to be executed, the current annual order quantity is the same as the last year, and the capacity is relatively surplus; if the order is relatively more this year, there may be a risk of delivery;
(3) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the re-production electric quantity percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier data is considered to be wrong and needs to be further verified;
(4) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is high, the electric quantity of the re-production (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the electric quantity of the re-production (historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to meet the demand, and the order can be added preferentially without driving up;
(5) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the electric quantity of the compound production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is high and the electric quantity of the compound production (the historical peak value) is high, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered not to meet the demand, no surplus capacity exists in the full load driving, and no order is suggested to be added;
(6) when the accumulated output (the lunar calendar synchronization) of a supplier is low, the electric quantity of the re-production (the lunar calendar synchronization) is high and the electric quantity of the re-production (the historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered not to meet the demand, the supplier is driven without the load, the order addition is not suggested, and the current year order is less than the last year, so that the driver is not required; if the orders are relatively more in this year, the capacity recovery may have certain difficulty;
(7) when the accumulated output percent (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the re-production electric quantity percent (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity percent (historical peak value) is high, the supplier data is considered to be wrong and needs to be further verified;
(8) when the accumulated output% (lunar calendar synchronization) of the supplier is low, the re-production electric quantity% (lunar calendar synchronization) is low and the re-production electric quantity% (historical peak value) is low, the accumulated capacity of the supplier is considered to be not satisfied with the requirement and the re-production degree is low, and no additional order is suggested;
s10: according to the analysis result of the data in the step S9, the capacity recovery conditions of different suppliers and the proposal of the additional order, selecting the supplier meeting the requirements to order;
s11: adjusting the list of suppliers who have placed orders, and judging the possibility that the suppliers who have placed orders deliver ordered goods according to the date according to S7 and S8; when the delivery early warning occurs, adding orders according to S9 and S10; ensuring that all the materials of the order are obtained according to time.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the method for calculating the base power consumption comprises the steps of:
j1: selecting historical daily electricity consumption data of a supplier to be analyzed as a total amount of samples, randomly selecting k daily electricity consumption data samples as initial clustering center points, and dividing each sample into a nearest clustering center according to a certain selection standard;
j2: calculating the average value of each cluster;
j3: calculating the distance between each sample and the central samples according to the average value of each cluster, namely the central samples;
j4: dividing each sample in the data set into a class with the minimum distance according to the distance from the sample to the k central points;
j5: recalculating the average value of each changed cluster;
j6: repeating the steps J2 to J5 until no change occurs in each cluster;
j7: and after the final clustering result is determined, selecting the minimum value of the clustering center point from the k clusters as the basic power consumption of the supplier.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein the historical daily capacity data in step J1 is the daily capacity data of the previous agricultural calendar year.
4. The method of claim 1, wherein when the beat of the working day and the non-working day is misaligned, the offset is performed, and the maximum electricity consumption value in the three days is taken as the electricity consumption data of the same day.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein in step S10, the ordered suppliers are selected to add preferentially, and if none of the ordered suppliers meets the conditions for adding orders, a new supplier is selected to add orders.
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