CN113919621A - A method and system for low-carbon transformation plan planning of power generation enterprises - Google Patents
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Abstract
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及一种用于发电企业低碳转型方案规划的方法及系统，属于能源电力低碳转型方案规划与技术经济评估领域。The invention relates to a method and a system for low-carbon transformation scheme planning of power generation enterprises, belonging to the fields of energy and power low-carbon transformation scheme planning and technical and economic evaluation.
背景技术Background technique
能源是人类生存和发展的重要物质基础，关乎国计民生和安全。全球能源发展经历了从薪柴时代到煤炭时代，再到油气时代、电气时代的演变过程。在碳达峰、碳中和背景下，能源枯竭、气候变化、环境安全等问题，使能源清洁低碳转型成为全球能源发展的必然趋势。能源转型的根本任务是构建清洁、低碳的新能源体系，电能是推动能源转型的中心环节。电力行业是最主要的碳减排行业，发电企业是能源转型背景下电力行业低碳清洁转型的推动者和践行者，以传统化石能源为主的发电方式逐渐向以新能源发电为主的新型电力系统转型。Energy is an important material basis for human survival and development, and it is related to the national economy and people's livelihood and security. The global energy development has experienced the evolution process from the age of fuelwood to the age of coal, to the age of oil and gas, and the age of electricity. In the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, energy depletion, climate change, environmental security and other issues have made clean and low-carbon transformation of energy an inevitable trend in global energy development. The fundamental task of energy transformation is to build a clean, low-carbon new energy system, and electric energy is the central link in promoting energy transformation. The power industry is the most important carbon emission reduction industry, and power generation companies are the promoters and practitioners of the low-carbon and clean transformation of the power industry in the context of energy transition. New power system transformation.
发电企业(尤其是大型骨干型发电企业)的低碳转型需要兼顾总发电规模以保证电力供应(社会责任)、电力结构低碳化(环境责任)以及企业的经济效益(经济责任)。当前，发电企业在制定低碳转型规划时通常仅参考所在系统的整体发展规划目标与路径来制定自身的发展目标与路径，亟需在计及系统的整体发展规划目标与路径基础上，进一步考虑企业自身的发展历史与现状、未来低碳转型过程中可开发建设的各类能源资源禀赋以及相关备选发电项目经济性效益等因素，基于更为详尽的量化分析制定企业的中长期低碳转型方案。The low-carbon transformation of power generation enterprises (especially large-scale backbone power generation enterprises) needs to take into account the total power generation scale to ensure power supply (social responsibility), low-carbon power structure (environmental responsibility) and economic benefits (economic responsibility). At present, power generation companies usually only refer to the overall development planning goals and paths of their systems when formulating low-carbon transformation plans to formulate their own development goals and paths. The company's own development history and current situation, various energy resource endowments that can be developed and constructed in the future low-carbon transformation process, and the economic benefits of relevant alternative power generation projects, etc., based on a more detailed quantitative analysis to formulate the company's medium and long-term low-carbon transformation. Program.
发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
本发明的目的在于克服现有技术中的不足，提供一种用于发电企业低碳转型方案规划的方法及系统，，解决了背景技术中披露的问题。The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, to provide a method and system for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise, and to solve the problems disclosed in the background art.
为达到上述目的，本发明是采用下述技术方案实现的：To achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions to realize:
一方面，本发明提供了一种用于发电企业低碳转型方案规划的方法，包括：In one aspect, the present invention provides a method for planning a low-carbon transformation plan for a power generation enterprise, including:
获取转型期内发电企业电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量规划目标与路径；Obtain the planning goals and paths of the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power generation enterprise's power system during the transition period;
计算转型期内电力系统每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量；Calculate the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power system during the transition period;
确定发电企业每年在电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量中的占比；Determine the annual share of power generation companies in the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power system;
计算转型期内发电企业每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量；Calculate the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of power generation enterprises during the transition period;
基于发电企业现有各发电类型装机容量、预计退役年份，计算发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力；Based on the existing installed capacity of each power generation type and the expected retirement year of the power generation enterprise, calculate the annual new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that the power generation enterprise needs;
根据系统资源禀赋和发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，逐年确定发电企业可投资备选发电项目；According to the resource endowment of the system and the new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that the power generation enterprise needs to increase every year, determine the alternative power generation projects that the power generation enterprise can invest in year by year;
依据各备选发电项目的年可发电利用小时数、建设成本、运维成本、上网电价，计算其净现值率；Calculate the net present value rate of each alternative power generation project based on the annual available power generation hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and on-grid electricity price;
针对转型期内的每一年，按净现值率由高到低对当年所有的可投资备选发电项目进行排序，并依次选取对应的备选发电项目直至满足当年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年，得到发电企业低碳转型规划下的发电项目投资序列；其中，For each year in the transition period, sort all the investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present value rate from high to low, and select the corresponding alternative power generation projects in turn until the new fossil energy power generation that needs to be added in the current year is met. power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity, until the last year of the transition period, to obtain the investment sequence of power generation projects under the low-carbon transformation plan of power generation enterprises; among them,
若当年所有的可投资备选项目都选中后仍无法满足新增发电量需求，则将当年未完成的新增发电量能力作为下一年需额外完成新增发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年；若转型期最后一年仍无法完成所有总的化石能源发电量及非化石能源发电量目标，则标记发电企业的本次低碳转型方案规划无法实现。If all the investable alternative projects in the current year are still unable to meet the new power generation demand, the uncompleted new power generation capacity of the current year will be regarded as the additional power generation capacity to be completed in the next year until the last time of the transition period. Year; if all the total fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation targets are still not completed in the last year of the transition period, the low-carbon transformation plan of the marked power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
进一步的，确定发电企业每年在电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量中的占比，计算转型期内发电企业每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量，包括：Further, determine the annual proportion of power generation enterprises in the total power generation and non-fossil energy generation of the power system, and calculate the annual fossil energy generation and non-fossil energy generation of power generation enterprises during the transition period, including:
根据发电企业当前在整个电力系统中的地位，以及电力系统中的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量目标，规划企业在转型期最后一年在整个电力系统中的化石能源发电量占比和非化石能源发电量占比；According to the current status of power generation companies in the entire power system, as well as the goals of fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation in the power system, plan the proportion and amount of fossil energy power generation in the entire power system in the last year of the transition period. Proportion of non-fossil energy power generation;
结合发电企业当前的非化石能源发电量占比以及转型期内全系统每年的非化石能源发电量占比，确定转型期内企业每一年需达到的非化石能源发电量占比，计算企业每一年需达到的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量。Combined with the current proportion of non-fossil energy power generation of power generation enterprises and the annual proportion of non-fossil energy power generation of the whole system during the transition period, determine the non-fossil energy power generation proportion that the enterprise needs to achieve each year during the transition period, and calculate each Fossil energy generation and non-fossil energy generation to be achieved in a year.
进一步的，所述发电企业当前在整个电力系统中的地位根据发电装机量/发电量占比、非化石能源发电装机量/发电量占比、碳排放量占比进行确认。Further, the current position of the power generation enterprise in the entire power system is confirmed according to the installed capacity/proportion of power generation, the installed capacity/proportion of non-fossil energy power generation, and the ratio of carbon emissions.
进一步的，依据各备选发电项目的年可发电利用小时数、建设成本、运维成本、上网电价，计算其净现值率，计算公式为：Further, according to the annual power generation and utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and on-grid electricity price of each alternative power generation project, the net present value rate is calculated. The calculation formula is as follows:
其中，L为备选发电项目的预期寿命，i为当前决策年份，t为备选发电项目寿命期内的各个年份，r为折现率；
进一步的，所述现金流入包括固定资产值、回收流动资金和售电收入，所述现金流出包括资本金支出、燃料成本、运维成本、税金。Further, the cash inflow includes the value of fixed assets, recovered working capital and income from electricity sales, and the cash outflow includes capital expenditures, fuel costs, operation and maintenance costs, and taxes.
进一步的，依次选取对应的备选发电项目直至满足当年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，包括：依次选取对应的备选发电项目，每选中一个机组，按照该机组装机容量及其相应的年发电小时数，计算其年发电量，直至所有已选中的备选发电项目能够提供的总发电量大于等于当年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力。Further, selecting the corresponding alternative power generation projects in sequence until the new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that need to be added in the current year are met, including: selecting the corresponding alternative power generation projects in sequence, and each time a unit is selected, according to the unit. Installed capacity and its corresponding annual power generation hours, and calculate its annual power generation until the total power generation that all selected alternative power generation projects can provide is greater than or equal to the new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation that need to be added in the current year ability.
第二方面，本发明提供一种用于发电企业低碳转型方案规划的系统，包括：In a second aspect, the present invention provides a system for planning a low-carbon transformation plan for a power generation enterprise, including:
全系统化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量计算模块：用于获取转型期内发电企业电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量规划目标与路径，计算转型期内电力系统每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量。System-wide fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation calculation module: used to obtain the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation planning goals and paths of the power generation enterprise's power system during the transition period, and calculate the annual fossil energy of the power system during the transition period. Electricity generation and non-fossil energy generation.
发电企业不同能源类型发电量计算模块：用于确定发电企业每年在电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量中的占比，计算转型期内发电企业每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量，基于发电企业现有各发电类型装机容量、预计退役年份，计算发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力。Power generation calculation module for different energy types of power generation enterprises: used to determine the annual proportion of power generation enterprises in the total power generation and non-fossil energy generation of the power system, and calculate the annual fossil energy generation and non-fossil energy generation of power generation enterprises during the transition period. Power generation, based on the existing installed capacity of each power generation type and the expected retirement year of the power generation enterprise, calculate the annual new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that the power generation enterprise needs.
发电企业可投资发电项目的收益率计算模块：用于根据系统资源禀赋和发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，逐年确定发电企业可投资备选发电项目，依据各备选发电项目的年可发电利用小时数、建设成本、运维成本、上网电价，计算其净现值率。Calculation module for the rate of return of power generation projects that can be invested by power generation companies: It is used to determine the alternative power generation projects that power generation companies can invest in year by year according to the system resource endowment and the annual fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that power generation companies need to add. The net present value rate of each alternative power generation project is calculated based on the annual available power generation hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and on-grid electricity price.
发电企业可投资项目计算规划模块：用于针对转型期内的每一年，按净现值率由高到低对当年所有的可投资备选发电项目进行排序，并依次选取对应的备选发电项目直至满足当年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年，得到发电企业低碳转型规划下的发电项目投资序列；其中，若当年所有的可投资备选项目都选中后仍无法满足新增发电量需求，则将当年未完成的新增发电量能力作为下一年需额外完成新增发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年；若转型期最后一年仍无法完成所有总的化石能源发电量及非化石能源发电量目标，则标记发电企业的本次低碳转型方案规划无法实现。Calculation and planning module for investable projects of power generation enterprises: For each year in the transition period, it is used to sort all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present value rate from high to low, and select the corresponding alternative power generation in turn. Until the project meets the new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that needs to be added in the current year, and until the last year of the transition period, the investment sequence of the power generation project under the low-carbon transformation plan of the power generation enterprise is obtained; After all the alternative projects are selected and still cannot meet the new power generation demand, the uncompleted new power generation capacity in the current year will be regarded as the additional power generation capacity to be completed in the next year until the last year of the transition period; If all the total fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation targets cannot be completed within one year, the low-carbon transformation plan of the marked power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
第三方面，本发明提供一种计算机可读存储介质，其上存储有计算机程序，该程序被处理器执行时实现上述任一项所述方法的步骤。In a third aspect, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, implements the steps of any one of the methods described above.
第四方面，本发明提供一种计算设备，包括处理器及存储介质；In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computing device, including a processor and a storage medium;
所述存储介质用于存储指令；the storage medium is used for storing instructions;
所述处理器用于根据所述指令进行操作以执行根据上述任一项所述方法的步骤。The processor is adapted to operate in accordance with the instructions to perform the steps of the method according to any of the above.
与现有技术相比，本发明所达到的有益效果：Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects achieved by the present invention:
本发明提供了一种用于发电企业低碳转型方案规划的方法，通过在能源转型背景下的发电企业低碳转型规划受到发电企业所处系统的历史装机、系统未来发电需求总量、系统转型目标和规划路径、发电企业自身发电结构和发电企业备选发电项目经济性效益形成基于发电投资项目经济效益的发电企业低碳转型方案规划，相较于现有的方法能够更好的反映发电企业对电力清洁低碳转型成本的计算以及对政府决策规划要求的调整。The invention provides a method for low-carbon transformation plan planning of power generation enterprises. Through the low-carbon transformation planning of power generation enterprises under the background of energy transformation, the historical installed capacity of the system where the power generation enterprise is located, the total amount of future power generation demand of the system, and the transformation of the system are affected. Goals and planning paths, the power generation structure of power generation companies themselves, and the economic benefits of alternative power generation projects of power generation companies form a low-carbon transformation plan for power generation companies based on the economic benefits of power generation investment projects, which can better reflect power generation companies than existing methods. Calculation of the cost of clean and low-carbon transformation of electricity and adjustment of government decision-making and planning requirements.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1是本发明实施例提供的一种用于发电企业低碳转型方案规划的方法的流程图。FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a method for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise provided by an embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面结合附图对本发明作进一步描述。以下实施例仅用于更加清楚地说明本发明的技术方案，而不能以此来限制本发明的保护范围。The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and cannot be used to limit the protection scope of the present invention.
实施例1Example 1
本实施例介绍一种用于发电企业低碳转型方案规划的方法，包括：This embodiment introduces a method for planning a low-carbon transformation plan for a power generation enterprise, including:
获取转型期内发电企业电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量规划目标与路径；Obtain the planning goals and paths of the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power generation enterprise's power system during the transition period;
计算转型期内电力系统每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量；Calculate the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power system during the transition period;
确定发电企业每年在电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量中的占比；Determine the annual share of power generation companies in the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power system;
计算转型期内发电企业每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量；Calculate the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of power generation enterprises during the transition period;
基于发电企业现有各发电类型装机容量、预计退役年份，计算发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力；Based on the existing installed capacity of each power generation type and the expected retirement year of the power generation enterprise, calculate the annual new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that the power generation enterprise needs;
根据系统资源禀赋和发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，逐年确定发电企业可投资备选发电项目；According to the resource endowment of the system and the new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that the power generation enterprise needs to increase every year, determine the alternative power generation projects that the power generation enterprise can invest in year by year;
依据各备选发电项目的年可发电利用小时数、建设成本、运维成本、上网电价，计算其净现值率；Calculate the net present value rate of each alternative power generation project based on the annual available power generation hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and on-grid electricity price;
针对转型期内的每一年，按净现值率由高到低对当年所有的可投资备选发电项目进行排序，并依次选取对应的备选发电项目直至满足当年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年，得到发电企业低碳转型规划下的发电项目投资序列；其中，For each year in the transition period, sort all the investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present value rate from high to low, and select the corresponding alternative power generation projects in turn until the new fossil energy power generation that needs to be added in the current year is met. power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity, until the last year of the transition period, to obtain the investment sequence of power generation projects under the low-carbon transformation plan of power generation enterprises; among them,
若当年所有的可投资备选项目都选中后仍无法满足新增发电量需求，则将当年未完成的新增发电量能力作为下一年需额外完成新增发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年；若转型期最后一年仍无法完成所有总的化石能源发电量及非化石能源发电量目标，则标记发电企业的本次低碳转型方案规划无法实现。If all the investable alternative projects in the current year are still unable to meet the new power generation demand, the uncompleted new power generation capacity of the current year will be regarded as the additional power generation capacity to be completed in the next year until the last time of the transition period. Year; if all the total fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation targets are still not completed in the last year of the transition period, the low-carbon transformation plan of the marked power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
如图1所示，本实施例提供的用于发电企业低碳转型方案规划的方法，指未来较长的一段电力低碳转型所持续的时期内(下称“转型期”)，常见的时间范围是5年、10年、20年等。其应用过程具体涉及如下步骤：As shown in Fig. 1, the method for planning a low-carbon transformation plan of a power generation enterprise provided in this embodiment refers to the common time during a long period of low-carbon transformation of electricity in the future (hereinafter referred to as the "transition period"). The range is 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, etc. Its application process specifically involves the following steps:
步骤1，获取未来转型期内发电企业所在电力系统的总发电量及非化石能源发电量规划目标与路径，计算转型期内全系统每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量。其中，非化石能源发电系指风电、光伏、水电、核电等运行过程中无二氧化碳排放的发电类型，化石能源发电量系指煤电、气电等运行过程中会排放二氧化碳的发电类型。其中，全系统为目标发电企业所在区域电力系统。Step 1: Obtain the planning goals and paths of the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power system where the power generation enterprise is located in the future transition period, and calculate the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the entire system during the transition period. Among them, non-fossil energy power generation refers to the types of power generation that do not emit carbon dioxide during the operation of wind power, photovoltaics, hydropower, and nuclear power. Among them, the whole system is the regional power system where the target power generation enterprise is located.
具体过程如下：The specific process is as follows:
11)计算转型期内全系统每年的总发电量；11) Calculate the annual total power generation of the whole system during the transition period;
转型期指发电企业低碳转型方案规划的时间范围，起点年记为当前年t0，终点年记为tf，年份记为t，第t年的总发电量记为Qt，t∈[t0,tf]；全系统每年总发电量的取值可参考具有权威性政府规划、第三方机构研究成果，或发电企业自身的预测值；The transition period refers to the time range of the low-carbon transition plan of power generation enterprises. The starting year is recorded as the current year t 0 , the end year is recorded as t f , the year is recorded as t, and the total power generation in the t year is recorded as Q t , t∈[ t 0 , t f ]; the value of the annual total power generation of the whole system can refer to authoritative government planning, research results of third-party institutions, or the forecast value of the power generation enterprise itself;
12)计算转型期内全系统每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量；12) Calculate the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the whole system during the transition period;
本实施例中，化石能源发电量是指燃煤发电生产的电力，非化石能源发电量是指风电与光伏生产的电力；In this embodiment, fossil energy power generation refers to the power generated by coal-fired power generation, and non-fossil energy power generation refers to the power generated by wind power and photovoltaics;
转型期内发电企业所在电力系统的总发电量及非化石能源发电量规划目标与路径的数据来源可参考具有权威性政府规划、第三方机构研究成果，或发电企业自身的预测值。During the transition period, the data sources of the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation planning goals and paths of the power system where the power generation enterprises are located can refer to authoritative government plans, research results of third-party institutions, or the forecast values of power generation enterprises themselves.
步骤2，发电企业确定其每年在整个电力系统总发电量及非化石能源发电量中的占比，计算转型期内本企业每年的化石能源发电量及非化石能源发电量，并基于本企业现有各发电类型装机容量、预计退役年份，计算发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力。Step 2: The power generation enterprise determines its annual proportion in the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the entire power system, calculates the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the enterprise during the transition period, and based on the current With the installed capacity of each power generation type and the expected retirement year, calculate the annual new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that power generation enterprises need.
电力低碳转型背景条件为：除在建煤电机组之外，全系统不再新建煤电机组。The background conditions for the low-carbon transformation of electric power are: Except for coal-fired power units under construction, no new coal-fired power units will be built in the whole system.
具体过程如下：The specific process is as follows:
21)发电企业根据其当前在整个电力系统中的地位(如发电装机量/发电量占比、非化石能源发电装机量/发电量占比、碳排放量占比等指标)，以及全系统的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量目标，规划企业在转型期最后一年在整个电力系统中的化石能源发电量占比和非化石能源发电量占比。21) Power generation companies are based on their current status in the entire power system (such as power generation installed capacity / power generation ratio, non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity / power generation ratio, carbon emissions ratio, etc.), and the whole system. Fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation targets, plan the proportion of fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation in the entire power system in the last year of the transition period.
22)发电企业结合企业当前的非化石能源发电量占比以及转型期内全系统每年的非化石能源发电量占比，确定转型期内企业每一年需达到的非化石能源发电量占比，计算企业每一年需达到的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量；22) The power generation enterprise determines the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation that the enterprise needs to achieve in each year during the transition period based on the current proportion of non-fossil energy power generation and the annual non-fossil energy power generation proportion of the entire system during the transition period. Calculate the fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation that the enterprise needs to achieve every year;
23)针对转型期内每一年，统计发电企业现有化石能源发电机组与非化石能源发电机组的装机容量、预期退役年份、以及预期年发电小时数，计算为满足当年化石与非化石能源发电量需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力。23) For each year during the transition period, the installed capacity of the existing fossil energy generating units and non-fossil energy generating units of the power generation enterprises, the expected retirement year, and the expected annual power generation hours are calculated to meet the requirements of fossil and non-fossil energy power generation in that year. The new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity need to be added.
步骤3，根据系统资源禀赋和发电企业可开发投资能力，逐年确定发电企业可投资备选发电项目的集合。依据各备选发电项目的年可发电利用小时数、建设成本、运维成本、上网电价等参数，计算其净现值率。Step 3: According to the resource endowment of the system and the development and investment capability of the power generation enterprise, determine the set of alternative power generation projects that the power generation enterprise can invest in year by year. The net present value rate of each alternative power generation project is calculated based on the annual power generation hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, on-grid electricity price and other parameters.
具体过程如下：The specific process is as follows:
31)根据全系统的资源禀赋以及发电企业的可开发投资能力，逐年确定发电企业可投资备选发电项目的集合。31) According to the resource endowment of the whole system and the development and investment capacity of power generation enterprises, determine the set of alternative power generation projects that power generation enterprises can invest in year by year.
32)针对转型期内每一年，根据发电企业可投资备选发电项目的年可发电利用小时数、建设成本、运维成本、上网电价等参数，计算所有可投资备选项目的净现值率。32) For each year in the transition period, calculate the net present value of all investable alternative projects according to the annual power generation and utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, on-grid electricity price and other parameters of the alternative power generation projects that can be invested by the power generation company Rate.
计算公式如下：Calculated as follows:
其中，L为备选发电项目的预期寿命，i为当前决策年份，t为备选发电项目寿命期内的各个年份，r为折现率；
现金流入包括固定资产值、回收流动资金和售电收入；现金流出包括资本金支出、燃料成本、运维成本、税金等。Cash inflows include fixed asset value, recovery of working capital and income from electricity sales; cash outflows include capital expenditures, fuel costs, operation and maintenance costs, taxes, etc.
步骤4，针对转型期内的每一年，按净现值率由高到低对当年所有的可投资备选发电项目进行排序，并依次选取对应的备选发电项目直至满足当年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年，得到发电企业低碳转型规划下的发电项目投资序列。若当年所有的可投资备选项目都选中后仍无法满足新增发电量需求，则将当年未完成的新增发电量能力作为下一年需额外完成新增发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年。若转型期最后一年仍无法完成所有总的化石能源发电量及非化石能源发电量目标，则标记发电企业的本次低碳转型方案规划无法实现。Step 4: For each year in the transition period, sort all the alternative power generation projects that can be invested in the current year according to the net present value rate from high to low, and select the corresponding alternative power generation projects in turn until the new power generation projects that need to be added in the current year are met. Fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity, until the last year of the transition period, obtain the investment sequence of power generation projects under the low-carbon transformation plan of power generation enterprises. If all the investable alternative projects in the current year are still unable to meet the new power generation demand, the uncompleted new power generation capacity of the current year will be regarded as the additional power generation capacity to be completed in the next year until the last time of the transition period. year. If all the total fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation targets cannot be completed in the last year of the transition period, the low-carbon transition plan of the marked power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
具体过程如下：The specific process is as follows:
41)针对转型期内的每一年，按净现值率由高到低对当年所有的可投资备选发电项目进行排序。41) For each year in the transition period, sort all investable alternative power generation projects in that year according to the NPV rate from high to low.
42)针对转型期内的每一年，按照发电项目排序依次选取对应的备选发电项目，每选中一个机组，按照该机组装机容量和其相应的发电小时数，计算其年发电量。直至所有已选中的备选发电项目能够提供的总发电量大于等于当年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年。42) For each year in the transition period, select the corresponding alternative power generation projects according to the order of the power generation projects. For each unit selected, calculate its annual power generation according to the installed capacity of the unit and its corresponding power generation hours. Until the total power generation capacity provided by all the selected alternative power generation projects is greater than or equal to the new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that needs to be added in the current year, until the last year of the transition period.
43)若当年所有的可投资备选项目都选中后仍无法满足新增发电量需求，则将当年未完成的新增发电量能力作为下一年需额外完成新增发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年。若转型期最后一年仍无法完成所有总的化石能源发电量及非化石能源发电量目标，则标记发电企业的本次低碳转型方案规划无法实现。43) If all the investable alternative projects in the current year are still unable to meet the new power generation demand, the uncompleted new power generation capacity in the current year will be regarded as the additional power generation capacity to be completed in the next year until the transition period. the last year. If all the total fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation targets cannot be completed in the last year of the transition period, the low-carbon transition plan of the marked power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
假设转型期为2018～2035年，即t0＝2018，tf＝2035，2018～2035全系统每年的总发电量为[800，836，874，909，945，983，1022，1063，1100，1139，1178，1220，1262，1300，1339，1379，1421，1463](中括号中每个为每年的量，单位：亿千瓦时)，每年的非化石能源发电量占比为[40％，42％，44％，45％，47％，49％，51％，53％，55％，56％，58％，60％，62％，64％，65％，67％，69％，71％，73％]。转型期内系统非化石能源发电需求量为：[334，365，397，429，464，500，539，580，620，662，707，754，803，851，901，953，1007，1064](中括号中每个为每年的量，单位：亿千瓦时)。假设系统内存在两个需转型的发电企业，所关注的企业记为企业A。Assuming that the transition period is from 2018 to 2035, that is, t0=2018, tf=2035, and the total annual power generation of the whole system from 2018 to 2035 is [800, 836, 874, 909, 945, 983, 1022, 1063, 1100, 1139, 1178, 1220, 1262, 1300, 1339, 1379, 1421, 1463] (each in square brackets is the annual amount, unit: 100 million kWh), the annual proportion of non-fossil energy power generation is [40%, 42% , 44%, 45%, 47%, 49%, 51%, 53%, 55%, 56%, 58%, 60%, 62%, 64%, 65%, 67%, 69%, 71%, 73 %]. During the transition period, the demand for non-fossil energy power generation in the system is: [334, 365, 397, 429, 464, 500, 539, 580, 620, 662, 707, 754, 803, 851, 901, 953, 1007, 1064]( Each in square brackets is the annual amount, unit: 100 million kWh). Assume that there are two power generation enterprises that need to be transformed in the system, and the enterprise concerned is recorded as enterprise A.
起点年，企业A已有装机为14台煤电机组，装机容量为：[300，300，300，300，300，300，300，300，350，350，600，600，600，600](单位：兆瓦)，分别在2004年至2017年逐年投建；7个风电场，装机容量为：[250，500，500，750，750，750，750](单位：兆瓦)，分别在2011年至2017年逐年投建；7个光伏电站，装机容量为：[346，692，692，1038，1038，1038，1038](单位：兆瓦)，分别在2011年至2017年逐年投资。In the starting year, enterprise A has installed 14 coal-fired power units, and the installed capacity is: [300, 300, 300, 300, 300, 300, 300, 300, 350, 350, 600, 600, 600, 600] (units : MW), which were put into construction year by year from 2004 to 2017; 7 wind farms with installed capacity: [250, 500, 500, 750, 750, 750, 750] (unit: MW), respectively in 2011 From 2011 to 2017, it has been put into construction year by year; 7 photovoltaic power stations with installed capacity are: [346, 692, 692, 1038, 1038, 1038, 1038] (unit: MW), which will be invested year by year from 2011 to 2017.
设定企业A在转型期内每一年的化石能源发电量与非化石能源发电量均占全系统的50％，计算可得转型期内企业A总发电量为：[400，419，438，457，476，496，517，538，558，579，600，622，645，666，687，709，731，755](中括号中每个为每年的量，单位：亿千瓦时)，非化石能源发电量占比为：[40％，42％，44％，46％，47％，49％，51％，53％，55％，57％，58％，60％，62％，64％，66％，67％，69％，71％](中括号中每个为每年的量)，化石能源发电量为[240，244，247，249，250，252，253，253，253，251，250，248，245，241，236，231，226，220](单位：亿千瓦时)，非化石能源发电量为[160，175，192，208，226，245，264，285，306，328，351，375，401，425，451，478，506，536](单位：亿千瓦时)。Assuming that the fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of enterprise A in each year during the transition period account for 50% of the entire system, the total power generation of enterprise A during the transition period can be calculated as: [400, 419, 438, 457, 476, 496, 517, 538, 558, 579, 600, 622, 645, 666, 687, 709, 731, 755] (each in brackets is the annual amount, unit: 100 million kWh), non-fossil The proportion of energy generation is: [40%, 42%, 44%, 46%, 47%, 49%, 51%, 53%, 55%, 57%, 58%, 60%, 62%, 64%, 66%, 67%, 69%, 71%] (each in brackets is the annual amount), the fossil energy power generation is [240, 244, 247, 249, 250, 252, 253, 253, 253, 251, 250, 248, 245, 241, 236, 231, 226, 220] (unit: 100 million kWh), non-fossil energy power generation is [160, 175, 192, 208, 226, 245, 264, 285, 306, 328 , 351, 375, 401, 425, 451, 478, 506, 536] (unit: billion kWh).
按煤电机组30年寿命测算，转型期内企业A每年的在役煤电机组装机容量为：[5500，5500，5500，5500，5500，5500，5500，5500，5500，5500，5500，5500，5500，5200，4900](单位：兆瓦)，最大年发电量为[302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，302.5，286，269.5](单位：亿千瓦时)，经比较，企业A每年需新增的化石能源发电量为[0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0](单位：亿千瓦时)，即在考虑现役燃煤机组退役的情况下依然能够满足化石能源发电量的规划量。Calculated based on the 30-year lifespan of the coal-fired power unit, the annual in-service coal-fired power unit capacity of Enterprise A during the transition period is: [5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5200, 4900] (unit: MW), the maximum annual power generation is [302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5 , 286, 269.5] (unit: 100 million kWh), after comparison, the annual new fossil energy power generation required by enterprise A is [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] (unit: 100 million kilowatt-hours), that is, considering the retirement of active coal-fired units, the planned amount of fossil energy power generation can still be met.
设风电、光伏机组寿命20年，年发电利用小时数分别为1800小时和1300小时，计及风电与光伏机组退役情况下转型期内每年需新增的非化石能源发电量为[7.0，15.0，16.6，16.2，17.6，19.2，19.4，20.6，20.8，22.1，23.1，24.2，26.1，24.6，25.8，27.0，28.0，29.8](单位：亿千瓦时)。Assuming that the lifespan of wind power and photovoltaic units is 20 years, the annual power generation utilization hours are 1800 hours and 1300 hours, respectively. Taking into account the decommissioning of wind power and photovoltaic units, the annual increase in non-fossil energy power generation during the transition period is [7.0, 15.0, 16.6, 16.2, 17.6, 19.2, 19.4, 20.6, 20.8, 22.1, 23.1, 24.2, 26.1, 24.6, 25.8, 27.0, 28.0, 29.8] (unit: billion kWh).
设转型期内每一年的风电单位容量造价为[7000，6270，5540，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260，5260](单位：元/千瓦)，运维成本[75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75，75](单位：元/兆瓦时)，计算可得新建风电的投资净现值率为：[1.87，1.97，2.05，2.07，2.08，2.07，2.05，2.01，1.96，1.90，1.82，1.74，1.67，1.57，1.19，1.43，1.69，1.95](中括号中每个为每年的数值)；设转型期内每一年的光伏单位容量造价为[5500，5050，4600，4150，3700，3250，3230，3230，3230，3230，3230，3230，3230，3230，3230，3230，3230，3230](单位：元/千瓦)，运维成本[100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100，100](单位：元/兆瓦时)，计算可得新建光伏的投资净现值率为：[1.87，1.85，1.81，1.69，1.52，1.32，1.06，1.10，1.27，1.44，1.64，1.87，2.15，2.12，2.44，2.39，2.30，2.15](中括号中每个为每年的数值)。Suppose the unit capacity cost of wind power in each year during the transition period is [7000, 6270, 5540, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260] (unit: yuan/kW), operation and maintenance cost [75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75] (unit : Yuan/MWh), the net present value rate of investment in new wind power can be calculated: [1.87, 1.97, 2.05, 2.07, 2.08, 2.07, 2.05, 2.01, 1.96, 1.90, 1.82, 1.74, 1.67, 1.57, 1.19, 1.43, 1.69, 1.95] (each value in square brackets is an annual value); set the cost of photovoltaic unit capacity for each year during the transition period as [5500, 5050, 4600, 4150, 3700, 3250, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230] (unit: RMB/kW), operation and maintenance cost [100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100] (unit: yuan/MWh), the net present value rate of the new PV investment can be calculated as follows: [1.87, 1.85, 1.81, 1.69, 1.52, 1.32, 1.06, 1.10, 1.27, 1.44, 1.64, 1.87, 2.15, 2.12, 2.44, 2.39, 2.30, 2.15] (each year in brackets).
设企业A每年可投资的风电容量[1000，1000，1000，1000，1000，2000，2000，2000，2000，2000，3000，3000，3000，3000，3000，3500，3500，3500](单位：兆瓦)，每年可投资的光伏容量为[1000，1000，1000，1000，1000，2000，2000，2000，2000，2000，3000，3000，3000，3000，3000，3500，3500，3500](单位：兆瓦)，根据转型期内每一年可投资的风电与光伏装机容量及其收益率排序，企业A在转型期内每年的风电新建装机为：[390，860，910，920，970，1040，1100，1160，1150，1220，1270，0，0，0，0，0，0，0](中括号中每个为每年的量，单位：兆瓦)。光伏新建装机为：[0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，0，1860，1960，2250，2680，2770，3210，3300](中括号中每个为每年的量，单位：兆瓦)。Suppose the annual investable wind power capacity of enterprise A [1000, 1000, 1000, 1000, 1000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 3000, 3000, 3000, 3000, 3000, 3500, 3500, 3500] (unit: mega Watts), the annual investable photovoltaic capacity is [1000, 1000, 1000, 1000, 1000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 3000, 3000, 3000, 3000, 3000, 3500, 3500, 3500] (unit: MW), according to the annual investment of wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity and its rate of return during the transition period, the annual new wind power installed capacity of Enterprise A during the transition period is: [390, 860, 910, 920, 970, 1040 , 1100, 1160, 1150, 1220, 1270, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] (each in square brackets is the annual amount, unit: MW). The newly installed photovoltaic capacity is: [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1860, 1960, 2250, 2680, 2770, 3210, 3300] (each in brackets is an annual amount, in megawatts).
上述方法计及在能源转型背景下的发电企业低碳转型规划受到发电企业所处系统的历史装机、系统未来发电需求总量、系统转型目标和规划路径、发电企业自身发电结构和发电企业备选发电项目经济性效益形成基于发电投资项目经济效益的发电企业低碳转型方案规划，相较于现有的方法能够更好的反映发电企业对电力清洁低碳转型成本的计算以及对政府决策规划要求的调整。The above method takes into account that the low-carbon transformation planning of power generation enterprises in the context of energy transformation is affected by the historical installed capacity of the system where the power generation enterprise is located, the total future power generation demand of the system, the system transformation goal and planning path, the power generation enterprise’s own power generation structure and the power generation enterprise’s alternatives. The economic benefits of power generation projects form the low-carbon transformation plan of power generation enterprises based on the economic benefits of power generation investment projects. Compared with the existing methods, it can better reflect the calculation of power generation enterprises' cost of clean and low-carbon transformation of electricity and the requirements for government decision-making and planning. adjustment.
实施例2Example 2
本实施例提供一种用于发电企业低碳转型方案规划的系统，包括：This embodiment provides a system for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise, including:
全系统化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量计算模块：用于获取转型期内发电企业电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量规划目标与路径，计算转型期内电力系统每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量。System-wide fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation calculation module: used to obtain the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation planning goals and paths of the power generation enterprise's power system during the transition period, and calculate the annual fossil energy of the power system during the transition period. Electricity generation and non-fossil energy generation.
发电企业不同能源类型发电量计算模块：用于确定发电企业每年在电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量中的占比，计算转型期内发电企业每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量，基于发电企业现有各发电类型装机容量、预计退役年份，计算发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力。Power generation calculation module for different energy types of power generation enterprises: used to determine the annual proportion of power generation enterprises in the total power generation and non-fossil energy generation of the power system, and calculate the annual fossil energy generation and non-fossil energy generation of power generation enterprises during the transition period. Power generation, based on the existing installed capacity of each power generation type and the expected retirement year of the power generation enterprise, calculate the annual new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that the power generation enterprise needs.
发电企业可投资发电项目的收益率计算模块：用于根据系统资源禀赋和发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，逐年确定发电企业可投资备选发电项目，依据各备选发电项目的年可发电利用小时数、建设成本、运维成本、上网电价，计算其净现值率。Calculation module for the rate of return of power generation projects that can be invested by power generation companies: It is used to determine the alternative power generation projects that power generation companies can invest in year by year according to the system resource endowment and the annual fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that power generation companies need to add. The net present value rate of each alternative power generation project is calculated based on the annual available power generation hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and on-grid electricity price.
发电企业可投资项目计算规划模块：用于针对转型期内的每一年，按净现值率由高到低对当年所有的可投资备选发电项目进行排序，并依次选取对应的备选发电项目直至满足当年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年，得到发电企业低碳转型规划下的发电项目投资序列；其中，若当年所有的可投资备选项目都选中后仍无法满足新增发电量需求，则将当年未完成的新增发电量能力作为下一年需额外完成新增发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年；若转型期最后一年仍无法完成所有总的化石能源发电量及非化石能源发电量目标，则标记发电企业的本次低碳转型方案规划无法实现。Calculation and planning module for investable projects of power generation enterprises: For each year in the transition period, it is used to sort all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present value rate from high to low, and select the corresponding alternative power generation in turn. Until the project meets the new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that needs to be added in the current year, and until the last year of the transition period, the investment sequence of the power generation project under the low-carbon transformation plan of the power generation enterprise is obtained; After all the alternative projects are selected and still cannot meet the new power generation demand, the uncompleted new power generation capacity in the current year will be regarded as the additional power generation capacity to be completed in the next year until the last year of the transition period; If all the total fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation targets cannot be completed within one year, the low-carbon transformation plan of marking power generation enterprises cannot be realized.
实施例3Example 3
本实施例提供一种计算机可读存储介质，其上存储有计算机程序，该程序被处理器执行时实现下述任一项所述方法的步骤：This embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, implements the steps of any of the following methods:
获取转型期内发电企业电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量规划目标与路径；Obtain the planning goals and paths of the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power generation enterprise's power system during the transition period;
计算转型期内电力系统每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量；Calculate the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power system during the transition period;
确定发电企业每年在电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量中的占比；Determine the annual share of power generation companies in the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power system;
计算转型期内发电企业每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量；Calculate the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of power generation enterprises during the transition period;
基于发电企业现有各发电类型装机容量、预计退役年份，计算发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力；Based on the existing installed capacity of each power generation type and the expected retirement year of the power generation enterprise, calculate the annual new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that the power generation enterprise needs;
根据系统资源禀赋和发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，逐年确定发电企业可投资备选发电项目；According to the resource endowment of the system and the new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that the power generation enterprise needs to increase every year, determine the alternative power generation projects that the power generation enterprise can invest in year by year;
依据各备选发电项目的年可发电利用小时数、建设成本、运维成本、上网电价，计算其净现值率；Calculate the net present value rate of each alternative power generation project based on the annual available power generation hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and on-grid electricity price;
针对转型期内的每一年，按净现值率由高到低对当年所有的可投资备选发电项目进行排序，并依次选取对应的备选发电项目直至满足当年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年，得到发电企业低碳转型规划下的发电项目投资序列；其中，For each year in the transition period, sort all the investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present value rate from high to low, and select the corresponding alternative power generation projects in turn until the new fossil energy power generation that needs to be added in the current year is met. power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity, until the last year of the transition period, to obtain the investment sequence of power generation projects under the low-carbon transformation plan of power generation enterprises; among them,
若当年所有的可投资备选项目都选中后仍无法满足新增发电量需求，则将当年未完成的新增发电量能力作为下一年需额外完成新增发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年；若转型期最后一年仍无法完成所有总的化石能源发电量及非化石能源发电量目标，则标记发电企业的本次低碳转型方案规划无法实现。If all the investable alternative projects in the current year are still unable to meet the new power generation demand, the uncompleted new power generation capacity of the current year will be regarded as the additional power generation capacity to be completed in the next year until the last time of the transition period. Year; if all the total fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation targets are still not completed in the last year of the transition period, the low-carbon transformation plan of the marked power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
实施例4Example 4
本实施例提供一种计算设备，包括处理器及存储介质；This embodiment provides a computing device, including a processor and a storage medium;
所述存储介质用于存储指令；the storage medium is used to store instructions;
所述处理器用于根据所述指令进行操作以执行根据下述任一项所述方法的步骤：The processor is adapted to operate in accordance with the instructions to perform steps of the method according to any of the following:
获取转型期内发电企业电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量规划目标与路径；Obtain the planning goals and paths of the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power generation enterprise's power system during the transition period;
计算转型期内电力系统每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量；Calculate the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power system during the transition period;
确定发电企业每年在电力系统的总发电量和非化石能源发电量中的占比；Determine the annual share of power generation companies in the total power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of the power system;
计算转型期内发电企业每年的化石能源发电量和非化石能源发电量；Calculate the annual fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation of power generation enterprises during the transition period;
基于发电企业现有各发电类型装机容量、预计退役年份，计算发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力；Based on the existing installed capacity of each power generation type and the expected retirement year of the power generation enterprise, calculate the annual new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that the power generation enterprise needs;
根据系统资源禀赋和发电企业每年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，逐年确定发电企业可投资备选发电项目；According to the resource endowment of the system and the new fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity that the power generation enterprise needs to increase every year, determine the alternative power generation projects that the power generation enterprise can invest in year by year;
依据各备选发电项目的年可发电利用小时数、建设成本、运维成本、上网电价，计算其净现值率；Calculate the net present value rate of each alternative power generation project based on the annual available power generation hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and on-grid electricity price;
针对转型期内的每一年，按净现值率由高到低对当年所有的可投资备选发电项目进行排序，并依次选取对应的备选发电项目直至满足当年需新增的化石能源发电量能力及非化石能源发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年，得到发电企业低碳转型规划下的发电项目投资序列；其中，For each year in the transition period, sort all the investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present value rate from high to low, and select the corresponding alternative power generation projects in turn until the new fossil energy power generation that needs to be added in the current year is met. power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity, until the last year of the transition period, to obtain the investment sequence of power generation projects under the low-carbon transformation plan of power generation enterprises; among them,
若当年所有的可投资备选项目都选中后仍无法满足新增发电量需求，则将当年未完成的新增发电量能力作为下一年需额外完成新增发电量能力，直至转型期最后一年；若转型期最后一年仍无法完成所有总的化石能源发电量及非化石能源发电量目标，则标记发电企业的本次低碳转型方案规划无法实现。If all the investable alternative projects in the current year are still unable to meet the new power generation demand, the uncompleted new power generation capacity of the current year will be regarded as the additional power generation capacity to be completed in the next year until the last time of the transition period. Year; if all the total fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation targets are still not completed in the last year of the transition period, the low-carbon transformation plan of the marked power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
本领域内的技术人员应明白，本申请的实施例可提供为方法、系统、或计算机程序产品。因此，本申请可采用完全硬件实施例、完全软件实施例、或结合软件和硬件方面的实施例的形式。而且，本申请可采用在一个或多个其中包含有计算机可用程序代码的计算机可用存储介质(包括但不限于磁盘存储器、CD-ROM、光学存储器等)上实施的计算机程序产品的形式。As will be appreciated by those skilled in the art, the embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, a system, or a computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
本申请是参照根据本申请实施例的方法、设备(系统)、和计算机程序产品的流程图和/或方框图来描述的。应理解可由计算机程序指令实现流程图和/或方框图中的每一流程和/或方框、以及流程图和/或方框图中的流程和/或方框的结合。可提供这些计算机程序指令到通用计算机、专用计算机、嵌入式处理机或其他可编程数据处理设备的处理器以产生一个机器，使得通过计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备的处理器执行的指令产生用于实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能的装置。The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present application. It will be understood that each process and/or block in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of processes and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to the processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine such that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device produce Means for implementing the functions specified in a flow or flow of a flowchart and/or a block or blocks of a block diagram.
这些计算机程序指令也可存储在能引导计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备以特定方式工作的计算机可读存储器中，使得存储在该计算机可读存储器中的指令产生包括指令装置的制造品，该指令装置实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能。These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory result in an article of manufacture comprising instruction means, the instructions The apparatus implements the functions specified in the flow or flow of the flowcharts and/or the block or blocks of the block diagrams.
这些计算机程序指令也可装载到计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备上，使得在计算机或其他可编程设备上执行一系列操作步骤以产生计算机实现的处理，从而在计算机或其他可编程设备上执行的指令提供用于实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能的步骤。These computer program instructions can also be loaded on a computer or other programmable data processing device to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process such that The instructions provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flow or blocks of the flowcharts and/or the block or blocks of the block diagrams.
以上所述仅是本发明的优选实施方式，应当指出，对于本技术领域的普通技术人员来说，在不脱离本发明技术原理的前提下，还可以做出若干改进和变形，这些改进和变形也应视为本发明的保护范围。The above are only the preferred embodiments of the present invention. It should be pointed out that for those skilled in the art, without departing from the technical principle of the present invention, several improvements and modifications can also be made. These improvements and modifications It should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.
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