CN113919621A - Method and system for planning low-carbon transformation scheme of power generation enterprise - Google Patents
Method and system for planning low-carbon transformation scheme of power generation enterprise Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power generation enterprise low-carbon transformation scheme planning method and system based on economic benefits of power generation investment projects. The low-carbon transformation scheme planning decision of the power generation enterprise in the transformation period is obtained by considering key factors such as the total power generation amount and non-fossil energy power generation amount planning target and path of the power system where the power generation enterprise is located in the future transformation period, the ratio target of the total power generation amount and the non-fossil energy power generation amount of the power generation enterprise, the installed capacity and the service life of the power generation enterprise on-service generating set, the total amount of various non-fossil energy power generation resources which can be developed and constructed by the power generation enterprise in the future transformation period every year, the annual power generation utilization hours, the construction cost, the operation and maintenance cost, the online electricity price and the like.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method and a system for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise, and belongs to the field of energy and power low-carbon transformation scheme planning and technical and economic evaluation.
Background
The energy is an important material basis for human survival and development, and is concerned with the national civilization and safety. The global energy development goes through the evolution process from the firewood age to the coal age, and then to the oil gas age and the electric age. Under the background of carbon peak reaching, carbon neutralization, problems of energy exhaustion, climate change, environmental safety and the like, the clean and low-carbon transformation of energy becomes the inevitable trend of global energy development. The basic task of energy transformation is to construct a clean and low-carbon new energy system, and electric energy is a central link for promoting energy transformation. The power industry is the most main carbon emission reduction industry, and power generation enterprises are the motivators and the tramplings of low-carbon clean transformation in the power industry under the background of energy transformation, and gradually transform a power generation mode mainly based on traditional fossil energy to a novel power system mainly based on new energy power generation.
The low-carbon transformation of power generation enterprises (especially large backbone type power generation enterprises) needs to take into account the total power generation scale so as to ensure the power supply (social responsibility), the low carbonization of the power structure (environmental responsibility) and the economic benefit (economic responsibility) of the enterprises. Currently, when a power generation enterprise formulates low-carbon transformation planning, a development target and a path of the power generation enterprise are generally formulated only by referring to an overall development planning target and a path of a system where the power generation enterprise is located, on the basis of considering the overall development planning target and the path of the system, factors such as development history and current situation of the power generation enterprise, various energy resources which can be developed and constructed in a future low-carbon transformation process, economic benefits of relevant alternative power generation projects and the like are further considered, and a medium-and-long-term low-carbon transformation scheme of the power generation enterprise is formulated based on more detailed quantitative analysis.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects in the prior art, provides a method and a system for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise, and solves the problems disclosed in the background technology.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention is realized by adopting the following technical scheme:
in one aspect, the invention provides a method for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring a planning target and a path of total generated energy and non-fossil energy generated energy of a power generation enterprise power system in a transformation period;
calculating the annual fossil energy power generation amount and non-fossil energy power generation amount of the power system in the transformation period;
determining the ratio of the total generated energy of the power system and the generated energy of the non-fossil energy sources of the power generation enterprises in each year;
calculating the annual fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the power generation enterprises in the transformation period;
calculating the newly increased fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the power generation enterprise every year based on the installed capacity and the expected retired year of each existing power generation type of the power generation enterprise;
determining investable alternative power generation projects of power generation enterprises year by year according to system resource endowments and newly-added fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprises every year;
calculating the net present value rate according to the annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and the on-line electricity price of each alternative power generation project;
sequencing all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present rate from high to low, and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects until meeting the fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity which need to be newly added in the current year until the last year of the transformation period to obtain a power generation project investment sequence under the low-carbon transformation planning of a power generation enterprise; wherein,
if all the investable alternative projects in the current year are selected and cannot meet the requirement of newly increased power generation, taking the newly increased power generation capacity which is not completed in the current year as the capacity of additionally completing the newly increased power generation capacity in the next year until the last year of the transformation period; if all the targets of the total fossil energy generating capacity and the non-fossil energy generating capacity cannot be finished in the last year of the transformation period, marking that the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
Further, determining the ratio of the total power generation amount and the non-fossil energy power generation amount of the power generation enterprise in the power system every year, and calculating the fossil energy power generation amount and the non-fossil energy power generation amount of the power generation enterprise every year in a transformation period, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
according to the current position of a power generation enterprise in the whole power system, and the goals of fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation in the power system, planning the proportion of fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation in the whole power system at the last year of a transition period of the enterprise;
and determining the proportion of the non-fossil energy generated energy required to be reached by the enterprises in the transformation period every year by combining the current proportion of the non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprises and the proportion of the non-fossil energy generated energy of the whole system every year in the transformation period, and calculating the fossil energy generated energy and the non-fossil energy generated energy required to be reached by the enterprises in every year.
Further, the current position of the power generation enterprise in the whole power system is determined according to the ratio of the power generation loading amount to the power generation amount, the ratio of the non-fossil energy power generation loading amount to the power generation amount and the ratio of the carbon emission amount.
Further, the net present value rate is calculated according to the annual power generation utilization hours, the construction cost, the operation and maintenance cost and the on-line electricity price of each alternative power generation item, and the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein L is the expected life of the alternative power generation project, i is the current decision year, t is each year in the life of the alternative power generation project, and r is the discount rate;
cash inflow for the ith year;
for cash out in year i, IVESTiIs the investment amount of the ith year.
Further, the cash inflow includes a fixed asset value, a return liquidity and a sales electricity income, and the cash outflow includes a capital expenditure, a fuel cost, an operation and maintenance cost and a tax fund.
Further, the method sequentially selects corresponding alternative power generation items until meeting the requirement of newly increased fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity in the current year, and comprises the following steps: and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects, calculating the annual power generation amount of each selected unit according to the installed capacity of the unit and the corresponding annual power generation hours of the unit until the total power generation amount which can be provided by all the selected alternative power generation projects is larger than or equal to the fossil energy power generation amount capacity and the non-fossil energy power generation amount capacity which need to be newly added in the current year.
In a second aspect, the present invention provides a system for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise, comprising:
the whole system fossil energy power generation amount and non-fossil energy power generation amount calculation module: the method is used for obtaining planning targets and paths of total generated energy and non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprise power system in the transformation period and calculating the fossil energy generated energy and the non-fossil energy generated energy of the power system in the transformation period every year.
The power generation enterprise different energy types generated energy calculation module: the method is used for determining the ratio of the annual total generated energy and the annual non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprise in the power system, calculating the annual fossil energy generated energy and the annual non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprise in a transformation period, and calculating the newly increased fossil energy generated energy capacity and the non-fossil energy generated energy capacity of the power generation enterprise every year based on the installed capacity and the predicted retired year of each existing power generation type of the power generation enterprise.
The profitability calculation module of the investable power generation project of the power generation enterprise comprises: the method is used for determining investable alternative power generation projects of the power generation enterprises year by year according to system resource endowments, newly-added fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprises every year, and calculating net present value rate of the investable alternative power generation projects according to annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and internet electricity price of each alternative power generation project.
The calculation planning module for the investable projects of the power generation enterprises comprises: the method is used for sequencing all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year from high to low according to the net present rate in each year in the transformation period, and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects until meeting the requirement of newly-increased fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity in the current year and the last year in the transformation period to obtain a power generation project investment sequence under the low-carbon transformation planning of a power generation enterprise; if all investable alternative projects in the current year are selected and cannot meet the requirement of newly increased power generation, the newly increased power generation capacity which is not completed in the current year is used as the capacity of additionally completing the newly increased power generation capacity in the next year until the last year of the transformation period; if all the targets of the total fossil energy generating capacity and the non-fossil energy generating capacity cannot be finished in the last year of the transformation period, marking that the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
In a third aspect, the invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, performs the steps of any of the methods described above.
In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computing device comprising a processor and a storage medium;
the storage medium is used for storing instructions;
the processor is configured to operate in accordance with the instructions to perform the steps of the method according to any of the above.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
the invention provides a method for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise, which is characterized in that the low-carbon transformation scheme of the power generation enterprise under the background of energy transformation is subjected to historical installation of a system where the power generation enterprise is located, the total future power generation demand of the system, a system transformation target and a planning path, the power generation structure of the power generation enterprise and the economic benefit of a power generation enterprise alternative power generation project to form the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise based on the economic benefit of a power generation investment project.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereby.
Example 1
The embodiment introduces a method for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring a planning target and a path of total generated energy and non-fossil energy generated energy of a power generation enterprise power system in a transformation period;
calculating the annual fossil energy power generation amount and non-fossil energy power generation amount of the power system in the transformation period;
determining the ratio of the total generated energy of the power system and the generated energy of the non-fossil energy sources of the power generation enterprises in each year;
calculating the annual fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the power generation enterprises in the transformation period;
calculating the newly increased fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the power generation enterprise every year based on the installed capacity and the expected retired year of each existing power generation type of the power generation enterprise;
determining investable alternative power generation projects of power generation enterprises year by year according to system resource endowments and newly-added fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprises every year;
calculating the net present value rate according to the annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and the on-line electricity price of each alternative power generation project;
sequencing all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present rate from high to low, and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects until meeting the fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity which need to be newly added in the current year until the last year of the transformation period to obtain a power generation project investment sequence under the low-carbon transformation planning of a power generation enterprise; wherein,
if all the investable alternative projects in the current year are selected and cannot meet the requirement of newly increased power generation, taking the newly increased power generation capacity which is not completed in the current year as the capacity of additionally completing the newly increased power generation capacity in the next year until the last year of the transformation period; if all the targets of the total fossil energy generating capacity and the non-fossil energy generating capacity cannot be finished in the last year of the transformation period, marking that the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for planning the low-carbon transformation scheme of the power generation enterprise provided by this embodiment refers to a time period (hereinafter referred to as "transformation period") during which a long period of low-carbon transformation of electric power lasts in the future, and the common time ranges are 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, and the like. The application process specifically involves the following steps:
step 1, obtaining a planning target and a path of total generated energy and non-fossil energy generated energy of an electric power system of a power generation enterprise in a future transformation period, and calculating the fossil energy generated energy and the non-fossil energy generated energy of the whole system every year in the transformation period. The non-fossil energy power generation system refers to a power generation type without carbon dioxide emission in the running process of wind power, photovoltaic, hydroelectric power, nuclear power and the like, and the fossil energy power generation system refers to a power generation type with carbon dioxide emission in the running process of coal power, gas power and the like. The whole system is an area power system where a target power generation enterprise is located.
The specific process is as follows:
11) calculating the total annual power generation amount of the whole system in the transformation period;
the transformation period refers to the time range of low-carbon transformation scheme planning of a power generation enterprise, and the starting year is marked as the current year t0The terminal year is denoted as tfThe year is denoted as t, and the total power generation in the t year is denoted as Qt，t∈[t0,tf](ii) a The value of the total annual generating capacity of the whole system can refer to the authoritative government plan, the research result of a third party organization or the predicted value of a power generation enterprise;
12) calculating the annual fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the whole system in the transformation period;
in the embodiment, the fossil energy power generation amount refers to electric power generated by coal-fired power generation, and the non-fossil energy power generation amount refers to electric power generated by wind power and photovoltaic;
the data sources of the planning target and the path of the total power generation amount of the power system where the power generation enterprise is located in the transformation period and the non-fossil energy power generation amount can refer to authoritative government planning, research results of third-party institutions or predicted values of the power generation enterprise.
And 2, determining the ratio of the power generation enterprise to the total power generation capacity of the whole power system and the non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprise every year, calculating the fossil energy power generation capacity and the non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprise every year in a transformation period, and calculating the newly increased fossil energy power generation capacity and the non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprise every year based on the installed capacity and the predicted retired year of each existing power generation type of the power generation enterprise.
The background conditions of electric low-carbon transformation are as follows: except for the coal electric generating set under construction, the coal electric generating set is not newly built in the whole system.
The specific process is as follows:
21) the power generation enterprises plan the ratio of the fossil energy power generation amount to the non-fossil energy power generation amount in the whole power system in the last year of the transition period according to the current status (such as the indexes of the power generation loading amount/power generation amount ratio, the non-fossil energy power generation loading amount/power generation amount ratio, the carbon emission loading amount ratio and the like) of the power generation enterprises in the whole power system and the targets of the fossil energy power generation amount and the non-fossil energy power generation amount of the whole system.
22) The method comprises the steps that a power generation enterprise determines the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation required to be achieved by the enterprise every year in a transformation period by combining the current proportion of non-fossil energy power generation of the enterprise and the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation of the whole system every year in the transformation period, and calculates the fossil energy power generation required to be achieved by the enterprise every year and the non-fossil energy power generation;
23) and (3) counting the installed capacity, expected retired year and expected annual power generation hours of the existing fossil energy power generating set and non-fossil energy power generating set of the power generation enterprise for each year in the transformation period, and calculating to meet the newly increased fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity required by fossil and non-fossil energy power generation in the current year.
And 3, determining a set of alternative power generation projects which can be invested by the power generation enterprises year by year according to system resource endowments and the development investment capacity of the power generation enterprises. And calculating the net present value rate according to parameters such as annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, on-line electricity price and the like of each alternative power generation project.
The specific process is as follows:
31) and determining the set of investable alternative power generation projects of the power generation enterprises year by year according to the resource endowments of the whole system and the exploitable investment capacity of the power generation enterprises.
32) And calculating the net present value rate of all investable alternative items according to parameters such as annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, internet power price and the like of investable alternative power generation items of power generation enterprises in each year in the transformation period.
The calculation formula is as follows:
wherein L is the expected life of the alternative power generation project, i is the current decision year, t is each year in the life of the alternative power generation project, and r is the discount rate;
cash inflow for the ith year;
for cash out in year i, IVESTiIs the investment amount of the ith year.
The cash inflow comprises fixed asset value, recovered liquidity and electricity sales income; the cash flow includes capital expenditure, fuel cost, operation and maintenance cost, tax, etc.
And 4, sequencing all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present rate from high to low for each year in the transition period, and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects until meeting the newly-increased fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity in the current year and the last year in the transition period to obtain a power generation project investment sequence under the low-carbon transition plan of the power generation enterprise. And if all the investable alternative projects in the current year are selected and cannot meet the requirement of newly increased power generation capacity, taking the newly increased power generation capacity which is not completed in the current year as the capacity of additionally completing the newly increased power generation capacity in the next year until the last year of the transformation period. If all the targets of the total fossil energy generating capacity and the non-fossil energy generating capacity cannot be finished in the last year of the transformation period, marking that the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
The specific process is as follows:
41) and sequencing all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year from high to low according to the net present value rate for each year in the transformation period.
42) And aiming at each year in the transformation period, sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects according to the power generation project sequence, and calculating the annual power generation amount of each unit when one unit is selected according to the installed capacity of the unit and the corresponding power generation hours. Until the total generated energy which can be provided by all the selected alternative power generation projects is more than or equal to the newly added fossil energy generated energy capacity and non-fossil energy generated energy capacity in the current year until the last year of the transformation period.
43) And if all the investable alternative projects in the current year are selected and cannot meet the requirement of newly increased power generation capacity, taking the newly increased power generation capacity which is not completed in the current year as the capacity of additionally completing the newly increased power generation capacity in the next year until the last year of the transformation period. If all the targets of the total fossil energy generating capacity and the non-fossil energy generating capacity cannot be finished in the last year of the transformation period, marking that the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
Assuming that the transformation period is 2018-2035, i.e., t0 is 2018, tf is 2035, 2018-2035, and the total annual power generation of the whole system is [800, 836, 874, 909, 945, 983, 1022, 1063, 1100, 1139, 1178, 1220, 1262, 1300, 1339, 1379, 1421, 1463] (the annual amount in parentheses is billion kilowatt hours), the annual non-fossil energy power generation ratio is [ 40%, 42%, 44%, 45%, 47%, 49%, 51%, 53%, 55%, 56%, 58%, 60%, 62%, 64%, 65%, 67%, 69%, 71%, 73% ]. The demand of non-fossil energy power generation of the system in the transformation period is as follows: [334, 365, 397, 429, 464, 500, 539, 580, 620, 662, 707, 754, 803, 851, 901, 953, 1007, 1064] (each in parenthesis is an amount per year in hundred million kilowatt-hours). Suppose there are two power generation enterprises to be transformed in the system, and the concerned enterprise is denoted as enterprise a.
In the beginning years, an enterprise A has 14 coal-electric machine sets with installed capacities: [300, 300, 300, 300, 300, 300, 300, 350, 350, 600, 600, 600, 600] (unit: megawatt) built year by year in 2004 to 2017, respectively; 7 wind power plants, installed capacity is: [250, 500, 500, 750, 750, 750, 750] (unit: megawatt), which are built year by year in 2011 to 2017 respectively; 7 photovoltaic power plant, installed capacity is: [346, 692, 692, 1038, 1038, 1038, 1038] (unit: megawatt), invested year by year in 2011 to 2017, respectively.
Setting that the fossil energy power generation amount and the non-fossil energy power generation amount of the enterprise A in each year in the transformation period account for 50% of the whole system, and calculating the total power generation amount of the enterprise A in the transformation period as follows: [400, 419, 438, 457, 476, 496, 517, 538, 558, 579, 600, 622, 645, 666, 687, 709, 731, 755] (the amount in brackets is one year per year, unit: hundred million kilowatt hours), the non-fossil energy generation ratio is: [ 40%, 42%, 44%, 46%, 47%, 49%, 51%, 53%, 55%, 57%, 58%, 60%, 62%, 64%, 66%, 67%, 69%, 71% ] (each in middle brackets is an amount per year), fossil energy power generation is [240, 244, 247, 249, 250, 252, 253, 253, 253, 251, 250, 248, 245, 241, 236, 231, 226, 220] (unit: billion kilowatt hours), and non-fossil energy power generation is [160, 175, 192, 208, 226, 245, 264, 285, 306, 328, 351, 375, 401, 425, 451, 478, 506, 536] (unit: billion kilowatt hours).
According to the measurement and calculation of the 30-year service life of the coal-electricity unit, the installed capacity of the coal-electricity unit in active service of the enterprise A in the transformation period is as follows: [5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 5500, 4900] (unit: megawatt), maximum annual energy production is [302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 302.5, 286, 269.5] (unit: kilowatt-hour), and by comparison, enterprise a needs to generate electricity with newly added fossil energy in [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0] (unit: kilowatt-hour), namely, can still satisfy the planned amount of energy in consideration of decommissioning of the existing coal-fired unit.
The service lives of the wind power generation unit and the photovoltaic unit are 20 years, the annual power generation utilization hours are respectively 1800 hours and 1300 hours, and the power generation amount of non-fossil energy which needs to be newly increased every year in the transformation period under the condition of decommissioning of the wind power generation unit and the photovoltaic unit is [7.0, 15.0, 16.6, 16.2, 17.6, 19.2, 19.4, 20.6, 20.8, 22.1, 23.1, 24.2, 26.1, 24.6, 25.8, 27.0, 28.0 and 29.8] (unit: hundred million kilowatt hours).
Setting the unit volume manufacturing cost of wind power per year in the transition period as [7000, 6270, 5540, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260, 5260 (unit: yuan/kilowatt), the operation and maintenance cost [75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75, 75] in unit: yuan/megawatt, calculating the net present investment rate of newly-built wind power as follows: [1.87, 1.97, 2.05, 2.07, 2.08, 2.07, 2.05, 2.01, 1.96, 1.90, 1.82, 1.74, 1.67, 1.57, 1.19, 1.43, 1.69, 1.95] (each in parentheses is a number per year); assuming that the photovoltaic unit capacity cost per year in the transition period is [5500, 5050, 4600, 4150, 3700, 3250, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230, 3230] (unit: yuan/kw), the operation and maintenance cost [100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100, 100] is [ unit: yuan/megawatt hour ], the net investment present value rate of the newly-built photovoltaic is calculated as: [1.87, 1.85, 1.81, 1.69, 1.52, 1.32, 1.06, 1.10, 1.27, 1.44, 1.64, 1.87, 2.15, 2.12, 2.44, 2.39, 2.30, 2.15] (each in parentheses is a number per year).
Setting the wind power capacity [1000, 1000, 1000, 1000, 1000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 3000, 3000, 3000, 3500, 3500, 3500] (unit: megawatt) investable by the enterprise A per year and the photovoltaic capacity [1000, 1000, 1000, 1000, 1000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 2000, 3000, 3000, 3000, 3500, 3500] (unit: megawatt) investable per year, and ranking according to the wind power and photovoltaic installed capacity and the profitability which can be invested per year in the transformation period, the wind power installed newly built by the enterprise A per year in the transformation period is as follows: [390, 860, 910, 920, 970, 1040, 1100, 1160, 1150, 1220, 1270, 0, 0, 0, 0] (in parentheses each amount per year, in megawatts). The photovoltaic new installation machine comprises: [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1860, 1960, 2250, 2680, 2770, 3210, 3300] (in brackets each in annual amount: megawatts).
The method takes the power generation enterprise low-carbon transformation planning under the background of energy transformation into consideration, and the power generation enterprise low-carbon transformation scheme planning based on the economic benefits of the power generation investment project is formed by the historical installation of the system where the power generation enterprise is located, the total future power generation demand of the system, the system transformation target and the planning path, the power generation structure of the power generation enterprise and the economic benefits of the alternative power generation project of the power generation enterprise.
Example 2
The embodiment provides a system for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise, which comprises:
the whole system fossil energy power generation amount and non-fossil energy power generation amount calculation module: the method is used for obtaining planning targets and paths of total generated energy and non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprise power system in the transformation period and calculating the fossil energy generated energy and the non-fossil energy generated energy of the power system in the transformation period every year.
The power generation enterprise different energy types generated energy calculation module: the method is used for determining the ratio of the annual total generated energy and the annual non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprise in the power system, calculating the annual fossil energy generated energy and the annual non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprise in a transformation period, and calculating the newly increased fossil energy generated energy capacity and the non-fossil energy generated energy capacity of the power generation enterprise every year based on the installed capacity and the predicted retired year of each existing power generation type of the power generation enterprise.
The profitability calculation module of the investable power generation project of the power generation enterprise comprises: the method is used for determining investable alternative power generation projects of the power generation enterprises year by year according to system resource endowments, newly-added fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprises every year, and calculating net present value rate of the investable alternative power generation projects according to annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and internet electricity price of each alternative power generation project.
The calculation planning module for the investable projects of the power generation enterprises comprises: the method is used for sequencing all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year from high to low according to the net present rate in each year in the transformation period, and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects until meeting the requirement of newly-increased fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity in the current year and the last year in the transformation period to obtain a power generation project investment sequence under the low-carbon transformation planning of a power generation enterprise; if all investable alternative projects in the current year are selected and cannot meet the requirement of newly increased power generation, the newly increased power generation capacity which is not completed in the current year is used as the capacity of additionally completing the newly increased power generation capacity in the next year until the last year of the transformation period; if all the targets of the total fossil energy generating capacity and the non-fossil energy generating capacity cannot be finished in the last year of the transformation period, marking that the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
Example 3
The present embodiments provide a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which when executed by a processor implements the steps of any of the methods:
acquiring a planning target and a path of total generated energy and non-fossil energy generated energy of a power generation enterprise power system in a transformation period;
calculating the annual fossil energy power generation amount and non-fossil energy power generation amount of the power system in the transformation period;
determining the ratio of the total generated energy of the power system and the generated energy of the non-fossil energy sources of the power generation enterprises in each year;
calculating the annual fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the power generation enterprises in the transformation period;
calculating the newly increased fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the power generation enterprise every year based on the installed capacity and the expected retired year of each existing power generation type of the power generation enterprise;
determining investable alternative power generation projects of power generation enterprises year by year according to system resource endowments and newly-added fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprises every year;
calculating the net present value rate according to the annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and the on-line electricity price of each alternative power generation project;
sequencing all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present rate from high to low, and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects until meeting the fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity which need to be newly added in the current year until the last year of the transformation period to obtain a power generation project investment sequence under the low-carbon transformation planning of a power generation enterprise; wherein,
if all the investable alternative projects in the current year are selected and cannot meet the requirement of newly increased power generation, taking the newly increased power generation capacity which is not completed in the current year as the capacity of additionally completing the newly increased power generation capacity in the next year until the last year of the transformation period; if all the targets of the total fossil energy generating capacity and the non-fossil energy generating capacity cannot be finished in the last year of the transformation period, marking that the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
Example 4
The embodiment provides a computing device, comprising a processor and a storage medium;
the storage medium is used for storing instructions;
the processor is configured to operate in accordance with the instructions to perform the steps of the method according to any one of:
acquiring a planning target and a path of total generated energy and non-fossil energy generated energy of a power generation enterprise power system in a transformation period;
calculating the annual fossil energy power generation amount and non-fossil energy power generation amount of the power system in the transformation period;
determining the ratio of the total generated energy of the power system and the generated energy of the non-fossil energy sources of the power generation enterprises in each year;
calculating the annual fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the power generation enterprises in the transformation period;
calculating the newly increased fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the power generation enterprise every year based on the installed capacity and the expected retired year of each existing power generation type of the power generation enterprise;
determining investable alternative power generation projects of power generation enterprises year by year according to system resource endowments and newly-added fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprises every year;
calculating the net present value rate according to the annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and the on-line electricity price of each alternative power generation project;
sequencing all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present rate from high to low, and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects until meeting the fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity which need to be newly added in the current year until the last year of the transformation period to obtain a power generation project investment sequence under the low-carbon transformation planning of a power generation enterprise; wherein,
if all the investable alternative projects in the current year are selected and cannot meet the requirement of newly increased power generation, taking the newly increased power generation capacity which is not completed in the current year as the capacity of additionally completing the newly increased power generation capacity in the next year until the last year of the transformation period; if all the targets of the total fossil energy generating capacity and the non-fossil energy generating capacity cannot be finished in the last year of the transformation period, marking that the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, several modifications and variations can be made without departing from the technical principle of the present invention, and these modifications and variations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A method for planning a low-carbon transformation scheme of a power generation enterprise is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a planning target and a path of total generated energy and non-fossil energy generated energy of a power generation enterprise power system in a transformation period;
calculating the annual fossil energy power generation amount and non-fossil energy power generation amount of the power system in the transformation period;
determining the ratio of the total generated energy of the power system and the generated energy of the non-fossil energy sources of the power generation enterprises in each year;
calculating the annual fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the power generation enterprises in the transformation period;
calculating the newly increased fossil energy generating capacity and non-fossil energy generating capacity of the power generation enterprise every year based on the installed capacity and the expected retired year of each existing power generation type of the power generation enterprise;
determining investable alternative power generation projects of power generation enterprises year by year according to system resource endowments and newly-added fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprises every year;
calculating the net present value rate according to the annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and the on-line electricity price of each alternative power generation project;
sequencing all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year according to the net present rate from high to low, and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects until meeting the fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity which need to be newly added in the current year until the last year of the transformation period to obtain a power generation project investment sequence under the low-carbon transformation planning of a power generation enterprise; wherein,
if all the investable alternative projects in the current year are selected and cannot meet the requirement of newly increased power generation, taking the newly increased power generation capacity which is not completed in the current year as the capacity of additionally completing the newly increased power generation capacity in the next year until the last year of the transformation period; if all the targets of the total fossil energy generating capacity and the non-fossil energy generating capacity cannot be finished in the last year of the transformation period, marking that the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
2. The method for power generation enterprise low carbon transformation project planning of claim 1, wherein: determining the ratio of the power generation enterprise to the total power generation amount of the power system and the non-fossil energy power generation amount every year, and calculating the fossil energy power generation amount and the non-fossil energy power generation amount of the power generation enterprise every year in a transformation period, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
according to the current position of a power generation enterprise in the whole power system, and the goals of fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation in the power system, planning the proportion of fossil energy power generation and non-fossil energy power generation in the whole power system at the last year of a transition period of the enterprise;
and determining the proportion of the non-fossil energy generated energy required to be reached by the enterprises in the transformation period every year by combining the current proportion of the non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprises and the proportion of the non-fossil energy generated energy of the whole system every year in the transformation period, and calculating the fossil energy generated energy and the non-fossil energy generated energy required to be reached by the enterprises in every year.
3. The method for power generation enterprise low carbon transformation project planning of claim 1, wherein: the current position of the power generation enterprise in the whole power system is confirmed according to the ratio of the power generation loading capacity to the power generation capacity, the ratio of the non-fossil energy power generation loading capacity to the power generation capacity and the ratio of the carbon emission.
4. The method for power generation enterprise low carbon transformation project planning of claim 1, wherein: calculating the net present value rate according to the annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and the on-line electricity price of each alternative power generation project, wherein the calculation formula is as follows:
wherein L is the expected life of the alternative power generation project, i is the current decision year, t is each year in the life of the alternative power generation project, and r is the discount rate;
cash inflow for the ith year;
for cash out in year i, IVESTiIs the investment amount of the ith year.
5. The method for power generation enterprise low carbon transformation project planning of claim 4, wherein: the cash inflow comprises fixed asset value, recovered liquidity and electricity sales income, and the cash outflow comprises capital expenditure, fuel cost, operation and maintenance cost and tax fund.
6. The method for power generation enterprise low carbon transformation project planning of claim 1, wherein: the method sequentially selects corresponding alternative power generation items until meeting the newly increased fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity in the current year, and comprises the following steps: and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects, calculating the annual power generation amount of each selected unit according to the installed capacity of the unit and the corresponding annual power generation hours of the unit until the total power generation amount which can be provided by all the selected alternative power generation projects is larger than or equal to the fossil energy power generation amount capacity and the non-fossil energy power generation amount capacity which need to be newly added in the current year.
7. A system for low-carbon transformation scheme planning of a power generation enterprise is characterized by comprising:
the whole system fossil energy power generation amount and non-fossil energy power generation amount calculation module: the method is used for obtaining planning targets and paths of total generated energy and non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprise power system in the transformation period and calculating the fossil energy generated energy and the non-fossil energy generated energy of the power system in the transformation period every year.
The power generation enterprise different energy types generated energy calculation module: the method is used for determining the ratio of the annual total generated energy and the annual non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprise in the power system, calculating the annual fossil energy generated energy and the annual non-fossil energy generated energy of the power generation enterprise in a transformation period, and calculating the newly increased fossil energy generated energy capacity and the non-fossil energy generated energy capacity of the power generation enterprise every year based on the installed capacity and the predicted retired year of each existing power generation type of the power generation enterprise.
The profitability calculation module of the investable power generation project of the power generation enterprise comprises: the method is used for determining investable alternative power generation projects of the power generation enterprises year by year according to system resource endowments, newly-added fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity of the power generation enterprises every year, and calculating net present value rate of the investable alternative power generation projects according to annual power generation utilization hours, construction cost, operation and maintenance cost and internet electricity price of each alternative power generation project.
The calculation planning module for the investable projects of the power generation enterprises comprises: the method is used for sequencing all investable alternative power generation projects in the current year from high to low according to the net present rate in each year in the transformation period, and sequentially selecting corresponding alternative power generation projects until meeting the requirement of newly-increased fossil energy power generation capacity and non-fossil energy power generation capacity in the current year and the last year in the transformation period to obtain a power generation project investment sequence under the low-carbon transformation planning of a power generation enterprise; if all investable alternative projects in the current year are selected and cannot meet the requirement of newly increased power generation, the newly increased power generation capacity which is not completed in the current year is used as the capacity of additionally completing the newly increased power generation capacity in the next year until the last year of the transformation period; if all the targets of the total fossil energy generating capacity and the non-fossil energy generating capacity cannot be finished in the last year of the transformation period, marking that the low-carbon transformation scheme planning of the power generation enterprise cannot be realized.
8. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program, characterized in that: the program when executed by a processor implements the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 6.
9. A computing device, characterized by: comprising a processor and a storage medium;
the storage medium is used for storing instructions;
the processor is configured to operate in accordance with the instructions to perform the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.
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