CN113852072A - Newly-added power generation capacity prediction method and device for power system - Google Patents
Newly-added power generation capacity prediction method and device for power system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a device for predicting newly added generating capacity of a power system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring the weather standardized peak load of the historical year; predicting the system peak load of the target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical year and the annual average load increase rate; calculating a system capacity requirement for the target year based on system reliability requirements and a system peak load for the target year; calculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual overhaul plan and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit; calculating the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit according to the historical power generation condition of the renewable energy source unit; and predicting the newly increased power generation capacity of the power system of the target year according to the system capacity requirement of the target year, the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit and the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit. The invention ensures the sufficiency of the generating capacity and can provide technical support for power supply planning of the power system.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of electric quantity prediction of an electric power system, in particular to a method and a device for predicting newly added generating capacity of the electric power system and a storage medium.
Background
In recent years, the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation such as water, wind, light and the like is rapidly increased, and old units are gradually eliminated due to serious pollution problems. The renewable energy power generation output has the characteristics of weak fluctuation regularity, large random disturbance amplitude and long period, and the problem of generating capacity abundance is brought to a power system due to the fact that power loads climb year by year and renewable energy machines are connected to the power system in a large scale. How to ensure the abundance of the power generation capacity of the power system and provide technical support for realizing power supply planning of the power system is a technical problem which needs to be solved urgently at present.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method, a device and a storage medium for predicting the newly added generating capacity of a power system, so as to ensure the abundance of the generating capacity and provide technical support for power supply planning of the power system.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting a newly added power generation capacity of an electric power system. The method comprises the following steps:
acquiring the weather standardized peak load of the historical year;
predicting the system peak load of the target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical year and the annual average load increase rate;
calculating a system capacity requirement for the target year based on system reliability requirements and a system peak load for the target year;
calculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual overhaul plan and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit;
calculating the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit according to the historical power generation condition of the renewable energy source unit;
and predicting the newly increased power generation capacity of the power system of the target year according to the system capacity requirement of the target year, the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit and the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit.
Preferably, the predicting the system peak load of the target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical years and the annual average load increase rate specifically comprises:
according to the formula LF,y=(1+k)nLWN,y-nPredicting the system peak load of the target year; wherein L isF,ySystem peak load, L, for target year yWN,y-nThe load is the meteorological normalized peak load of y-n years, k is the annual average load increase rate, n is a constant, and n is more than or equal to 1.
Preferably, the calculating the system capacity requirement of the target year according to the system reliability requirement and the system peak load of the target year specifically includes:
according to the formula LD,y=(1+ε)LF,yCalculating a system capacity requirement for the target year; wherein L isD,yLine of the target yearSystem capacity requirement, ε is the capacity margin to meet the system reliability requirement, LF,yThe system peak load for the target year.
Preferably, the calculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual maintenance plan and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit specifically includes:
calculating the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit, the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the available state and the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the unavailable state;
and adjusting the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to an annual overhaul plan of the thermal power generating unit to obtain the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit.
Preferably, the calculating the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit, the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the available state and the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the unavailable state specifically includes:
according to formula CF,equ=(1-FOR)*CF+FOR*CF,FOCalculating the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit; wherein, CF,equFOR equivalent capacity of the thermal power unit, FOR is forced outage rate of the thermal power unit, CFCapacity of thermal power generating units in available state, CF,FOThe capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the unavailable state is shown.
Preferably, the adjusting the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to an annual overhaul plan of the thermal power generating unit to obtain the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit specifically includes:
according to the formulaCalculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit;
wherein, CF,effEffective installed capacity of thermal power generating units, CF,equEquivalent capacity of thermal power generating unit, CF,overhTo plan the overhaul capacity, Δ t is the overhaul duration.
Preferably, said epsilon equals 15%.
Preferably, the method for predicting the newly added power generation capacity of the power system further includes:
and outputting the newly increased power generation capacity to a display for displaying.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a newly added power generation capacity prediction apparatus for an electric power system, including:
the acquiring unit is used for acquiring the weather standardized peak load of the historical years;
the system peak load prediction unit is used for predicting the system peak load of a target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical year and the annual average load increase rate;
a system capacity demand calculation unit for calculating a system capacity demand of the target year according to a system reliability demand and a system peak load of the target year;
the effective installed capacity calculation unit of the thermal power generating unit is used for calculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual overhaul plan and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit;
the effective installed capacity calculation unit of the renewable energy source unit is used for calculating the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit according to the historical power generation condition of the renewable energy source unit;
and the newly increased generating capacity predicting unit is used for predicting the newly increased generating capacity of the power system in the target year according to the system capacity requirement in the target year, the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit and the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit.
Preferably, the newly added power generation capacity prediction apparatus of the power system further includes:
and the output unit is used for outputting the newly increased power generation capacity to a display for displaying.
The method for predicting the newly added generating capacity of the power system provided by the embodiment of the invention comprises the following steps: acquiring the weather standardized peak load of the historical year; predicting the system peak load of the target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical year and the annual average load increase rate; calculating a system capacity requirement for the target year based on system reliability requirements and a system peak load for the target year; calculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual overhaul plan and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit; calculating the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit according to the historical power generation condition of the renewable energy source unit; and predicting the newly increased power generation capacity of the power system of the target year according to the system capacity requirement of the target year, the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit and the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit. Compared with the prior art, the method for predicting the newly added generating capacity of the power system in the embodiment of the invention considers the historical meteorological standard peak load of the power system, the predicted system peak load of the target year, the system reliability requirement, the system capacity requirement, the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit and the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source, thereby ensuring the abundance of the generating capacity. The method for predicting the newly added generating capacity of the power system can provide technical support for power supply planning of the power system. In addition, the prediction method is simple in principle and efficient in calculation, and results can be obtained quickly.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting a newly added power generation capacity of an electrical power system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a newly added power generation capacity prediction apparatus of an electric power system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Example 1:
referring to fig. 1, taking a computer as an execution subject as an example, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting a newly added generating capacity of an electrical power system, including steps S1-S6:
and S1, acquiring the weather standardized peak load of the historical year.
In embodiments of the present invention, it should be understood that the weather normalized peak load is calculated by long term prediction methods and historical load data, which represents the peak load value that the system is expected to achieve when weather conditions meet certain criteria. If the weather standardized peak load in summer of ISONE 2018 is the Weighted Temperature and Humidity Index (WTHI) of about 79.9 and the temperature reduction day number (CDD) of about 16.6, the system predicts the peak load value to be reached.
And S2, predicting the system peak load of the target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical years and the annual average load increase rate.
And S3, calculating the system capacity requirement of the target year according to the system reliability requirement and the system peak load of the target year.
And S4, calculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual overhaul plan and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit.
And S5, calculating the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit according to the historical power generation condition of the renewable energy source unit.
And S6, predicting the newly added generating capacity of the power system of the target year according to the system capacity requirement of the target year, the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit and the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit.
Compared with the prior art, the method for predicting the newly added generating capacity of the power system in the embodiment of the invention considers the historical meteorological standard peak load of the power system, the predicted system peak load of the target year, the system reliability requirement, the system capacity requirement, the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit and the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source, thereby ensuring the abundance of the generating capacity. The method for predicting the newly added generating capacity of the power system can provide technical support for power supply planning of the power system.
As an example of the embodiment of the present invention, the predicting the system peak load of the target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical year and the annual average load increase rate specifically includes:
according to the formula LF,y=(1+k)nLWN,y-nPredicting the system peak load of the target year; wherein L isF,ySystem peak load, L, for target year yWN,y-nThe load is the meteorological normalized peak load of y-n years, k is the annual average load increase rate, n is a constant, and n is more than or equal to 1.
As an example of the embodiment of the present invention, the calculating the system capacity requirement of the target year according to the system reliability requirement and the system peak load of the target year specifically includes:
according to the formula LD,y=(1+ε)LF,yCalculating a system capacity requirement for the target year; wherein L isD,ySystem capacity requirement for target year, epsilon is capacity margin to meet system reliability requirement, LF,yThe system peak load for the target year.
As an example of the embodiment of the present invention, the calculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual overhaul plan and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit specifically includes:
calculating the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit, the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the available state and the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the unavailable state;
and adjusting the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to an annual overhaul plan of the thermal power generating unit to obtain the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit.
As an example of the embodiment of the present invention, calculating the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit, the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the available state, and the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the unavailable state specifically includes:
according to formula CF,equ=(1-FOR)*CF+FOR*CF,FOCalculating the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit; wherein, CF,equFOR equivalent capacity of the thermal power unit, FOR is forced outage rate of the thermal power unit, CFCapacity of thermal power generating units in available state, CF,FOThe capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the unavailable state is shown.
As an example of the embodiment of the present invention, the adjusting the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to an annual overhaul plan of the thermal power generating unit to obtain the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit specifically includes:
according to the formulaCalculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit;
wherein, CF,effEffective installed capacity of thermal power generating units, CF,equEquivalent capacity of thermal power generating unit, CF,overhTo plan the overhaul capacity, Δ t is the overhaul duration.
As an example of an embodiment of the present invention, ε is equal to 15%.
As an example of the embodiment of the present invention, the method for predicting the newly added power generation capacity of the power system further includes:
and outputting the newly increased power generation capacity to a display for displaying.
As an example of the embodiment of the present invention, the renewable energy unit includes a wind turbine, a photovoltaic unit, and a hydroelectric power unit.
In the embodiment of the invention, it should be noted that the effective installed capacities of the wind turbine generator set and the photovoltaic turbine generator set can be calculated according to the summer historical output data, and the effective installed capacity of the hydroelectric turbine generator set needs to determine an available water head according to incoming water prediction information, reservoir water storage information and the like, and then is calculated according to the generating efficiency and the annual maintenance plan of the hydroelectric turbine generator set.
For ease of understanding, a specific example is set forth below.
In a power system with 5 nodes, there are 5 generator sets, namely two thermal power generator sets, one hydroelectric power generator set, one wind power generator set and one photovoltaic power generator set. The capacities of the two thermal power units in the available state are respectively 200MW and 350MW, the forced outage rates are respectively 0.0105 and 0.0522, and the minimum technical output of the thermal power units in the forced outage state is 60MW (the capacity of the thermal power units in the unavailable state); the two thermal power generating units and the hydroelectric generating units are supposed to be overhauled twice in year plan, and the time length of each overhaul is 12 hours, 24 hours and 18 hours respectively.
Assuming that the target year is marked as y, and y-4 is selected as the historical year, the specific calculation process of the newly added generating capacity of the y power system of the target year is as follows:
firstly, acquiring the weather standardized peak load L of the historical year y-4, wherein the weather standardized peak load L of the historical year y-4WN,y-41380MW, average load growth rate per year of 1.7%, system peak load L for the target year yF,y=(1+k)nLWN,y-n=(1+1.7%)41380 ═ 1477 MW. According to the system reliability requirement of the 15% capacity margin epsilon, the system capacity requirement L of the target year y can be calculatedD,y=(1+ε)LF,y=(1+15%)×1477=1698.55MW。
Equivalent capacity C of two thermal power generating unitsF,equRespectively as follows:
CF1,equ=(1-FOR)*CF+FOR*CF,FO=(1-0.0105)*200+0.0105*60=198.53MW
CF2,equ=(1-FOR)*CF+FOR*CF,FO=(1-0.0522)*350+0.0522*60=334.862MW
adjusting the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to annual planned maintenance to obtain the effective installed capacity CF,effComprises the following steps:
for wind power and photovoltaic, the effective installed capacity of the wind power and photovoltaic power generation system is obtained by taking the average value of the maximum output in 7 and 8 months in summer according to historical data, CW,eff=254MW,CS,eff=75MW。
For hydropower, the effective installed capacity is firstly 600MW according to the incoming water prediction information, the reservoir water storage capacity and the unit generating efficiency, and the real effective installed capacity of the hydropower unit is obtained according to annual planned maintenance
Calculating the newly added generating capacity of the target year y according to the calculation result, as shown in the following formula:
Cnew,y=1698.55-(197.98+332.94+254+75+597.53)=1698.55-1457.45=241.1MW。
example 2:
referring to fig. 2, an embodiment of the present invention provides a device for predicting a newly added generating capacity of an electrical power system, including:
an acquisition unit 1 for acquiring a weather standardized peak load of a historical year;
a system peak load prediction unit 2 for predicting the system peak load of the target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical year and the average load increase rate of each year;
a system capacity demand calculation unit 3 for calculating a system capacity demand of the target year from a system reliability demand and a system peak load of the target year;
the effective installed capacity calculation unit 4 of the thermal power generating unit is used for calculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual overhaul plan and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit;
the effective installed capacity calculation unit 5 of the renewable energy unit is used for calculating the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy unit according to the historical power generation condition of the renewable energy unit;
and the newly increased generating capacity predicting unit 6 is used for predicting the newly increased generating capacity of the power system in the target year according to the system capacity requirement in the target year, the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit and the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit.
As an example of the embodiment of the present invention, the newly added power generation capacity prediction apparatus of the power system further includes:
and the output unit is used for outputting the newly increased power generation capacity to a display for displaying.
Example 3:
an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, where the computer-readable storage medium includes a stored computer program, where when the computer program runs, a device in which the computer-readable storage medium is located is controlled to execute the method for predicting the newly added power generation capacity of the power system according to any one of the above items.
It should be noted that, all or part of the flow in the method according to the above embodiments of the present invention may also be implemented by a computer program instructing related hardware, where the computer program may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the above embodiments of the method may be implemented. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code, which may be in the form of source code, object code, an executable file or some intermediate form, etc. The computer-readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, recording medium, usb disk, removable hard disk, magnetic disk, optical disk, computer Memory, Read-Only Memory (ROM), Random Access Memory (RAM), electrical carrier wave signals, telecommunications signals, software distribution medium, and the like. It should be further noted that the computer readable medium may contain content that is subject to appropriate increase or decrease as required by legislation and patent practice in jurisdictions, for example, in some jurisdictions, computer readable media does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunications signals in accordance with legislation and patent practice.
While the foregoing is directed to the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for predicting a newly added power generation capacity of an electric power system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring the weather standardized peak load of the historical year;
predicting the system peak load of the target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical year and the annual average load increase rate;
calculating a system capacity requirement for the target year based on system reliability requirements and a system peak load for the target year;
calculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual overhaul plan and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit;
calculating the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit according to the historical power generation condition of the renewable energy source unit;
and predicting the newly increased power generation capacity of the power system of the target year according to the system capacity requirement of the target year, the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit and the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit.
2. The method for predicting the newly added power generation capacity of the power system according to claim 1, wherein the predicting the system peak load of the target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical year and the annual average load increase rate specifically comprises:
according to the formula LF,y=(1+k)nLWN,y-nPredicting the system peak load of the target year; wherein L isF,ySystem peak load, L, for target year yWN,y-nThe load is the meteorological normalized peak load of y-n years, k is the annual average load increase rate, n is a constant, and n is more than or equal to 1.
3. The method for predicting the newly added power generation capacity of the power system according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the system capacity requirement of the target year according to the system reliability requirement and the system peak load of the target year specifically comprises:
according to the formula LD,y=(1+ε)LF,yCalculating a system capacity requirement for the target year; wherein L isD,ySystem capacity requirement for target year, epsilon is capacity margin to meet system reliability requirement, LF,yThe system peak load for the target year.
4. A method for predicting newly added generating capacity of an electric power system according to claim 1, wherein the calculating of the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual maintenance schedule and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit specifically includes:
calculating the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit, the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the available state and the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the unavailable state;
and adjusting the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to an annual overhaul plan of the thermal power generating unit to obtain the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit.
5. A newly added power generation capacity prediction method for a power system as claimed in claim 4, wherein the calculating of the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit, the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the available state, and the capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the unavailable state specifically comprises:
according to formula CF,equ=(1-FOR)*CF+FOR*CF,FOCalculating the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit; wherein, CF,equFOR equivalent capacity of the thermal power unit, FOR is forced outage rate of the thermal power unit, CFCapacity of thermal power generating units in available state, CF,FOThe capacity of the thermal power generating unit in the unavailable state is shown.
6. A newly added power generation capacity prediction method for an electric power system according to claim 5, wherein the adjusting the equivalent capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to an annual maintenance plan of the thermal power generating unit to obtain the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit specifically comprises:
according to the formulaCalculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit;
wherein, CF,effEffective installed capacity of thermal power generating units, CF,equEquivalent capacity of thermal power generating unit, CF,overhTo plan the overhaul capacity, Δ t is the overhaul duration.
7. A method for predicting new generation capacity of an electric power system according to claim 3, wherein e is equal to 15%.
8. The method of predicting the newly added power generation capacity of the power system as set forth in claim 1, wherein the method of predicting the newly added power generation capacity of the power system further comprises:
and outputting the newly increased power generation capacity to a display for displaying.
9. A newly added power generation capacity prediction device for an electric power system, comprising:
the acquiring unit is used for acquiring the weather standardized peak load of the historical years;
the system peak load prediction unit is used for predicting the system peak load of a target year according to the weather standardized peak load of the historical year and the annual average load increase rate;
a system capacity demand calculation unit for calculating a system capacity demand of the target year according to a system reliability demand and a system peak load of the target year;
the effective installed capacity calculation unit of the thermal power generating unit is used for calculating the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit according to the annual overhaul plan and the forced outage rate of the thermal power generating unit;
the effective installed capacity calculation unit of the renewable energy source unit is used for calculating the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit according to the historical power generation condition of the renewable energy source unit;
and the newly increased generating capacity predicting unit is used for predicting the newly increased generating capacity of the power system in the target year according to the system capacity requirement in the target year, the effective installed capacity of the thermal power generating unit and the effective installed capacity of the renewable energy source unit.
10. A newly added power generation capacity prediction apparatus of an electric power system according to claim 9, characterized by further comprising:
and the output unit is used for outputting the newly increased power generation capacity to a display for displaying.
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