CN113850470A - Evaluation method of comprehensive energy planning scheme - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to an evaluation method of a comprehensive energy planning scheme, which comprises the following steps: 1) selecting comprehensive energy evaluation indexes; 2) obtaining an evaluation index result value corresponding to the comprehensive energy planning scheme; 3) normalizing the result value of each evaluation index to obtain a normalized value of each evaluation index; 4) constructing an index vector corresponding to each evaluation index, wherein the modulus of the index vector is the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation index or is determined by the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation index, and the direction of the index vector meets the following conditions: the vector sum of the unit vectors of each index vector is a zero vector; 5) and summing vectors of all the index vectors to obtain an evaluation vector, wherein the smaller the modulus of the evaluation vector is, the optimal corresponding comprehensive energy planning scheme is.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to an evaluation method of a comprehensive energy planning scheme, and belongs to the technical field of comprehensive energy planning.
Background
The comprehensive energy refers to a certain area, and various substances such as coal, petroleum, natural gas, electric energy, heat energy and the like in the area are integrated by utilizing an advanced physical information technology and an innovative management mode, so that coordinated planning, optimized operation, cooperative management, interactive response and complementary mutual assistance among various heterogeneous energy subsystems are realized.
The existing scheme optimization and evaluation indexes of the comprehensive energy planning scheme are mostly to build an economic, technical and environmental index evaluation system, calculate all levels of index values through an analytic hierarchy process, calculate comprehensive scores of the scheme through determined weights and determine the optimal scheme through the scores. However, the existing scheme weight setting has large subjective colors, so that scheme selection has certain tendency, and the result calculated by the weight is not intuitive enough, so that the visualization effect is poor.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an evaluation method of a comprehensive energy planning scheme, which is used for solving the problems that the existing evaluation method is complex in weight setting and not intuitive enough in result.
In order to achieve the above object, the scheme of the invention comprises: an evaluation method of a comprehensive energy planning scheme comprises the following steps:
1) selecting comprehensive energy evaluation indexes;
2) obtaining an evaluation index result value corresponding to the comprehensive energy planning scheme;
3) normalizing the result value of each evaluation index to obtain a normalized value of each evaluation index;
4) constructing an index vector corresponding to each evaluation index, wherein the modulus of the index vector is the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation index or is determined by the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation index, and the direction of the index vector meets the following conditions: the vector sum of the unit vectors of each index vector is a zero vector;
5) and summing vectors of all the index vectors to obtain an evaluation vector, wherein the smaller the modulus of the evaluation vector is, the optimal corresponding comprehensive energy planning scheme is.
The invention provides a novel evaluation method of a comprehensive energy planning scheme, which avoids artificial subjective intervention by setting multiple rating indexes; obtaining the result values of all the rating indexes; carrying out normalization processing on different result values; the result after normalization processing of each index result value is a vector value, and the vector included angles of every two adjacent terms are equal; and summing the obtained vectors to obtain an evaluation vector, wherein the smaller the vector module value is, the better the scheme is.
The beneficial effects of doing so are: the setting of the weight of each rating index is cancelled, so that the tendency of subjective intervention caused by the manual setting of the weight in scheme selection is avoided; meanwhile, vectors are introduced, and evaluation results are more visual through summation of the index vectors.
Further, in step 3), the normalization processing method includes:
KeyOViKeyValue, a normalized value representing the ith planning scenario indicatoriThe actual result value of the ith planning scenario indicator is shown, and Abs indicates the absolute value.
The beneficial effects of doing so are: the rating indexes can be obtained by substituting collected data into a formula for calculation and also can be obtained by evaluating and scoring by experts, and index result values obtained in various different modes are calculated into results under a unified standard through a normalization formula, so that the unification of the results is facilitated.
Further, in step 4), the method for determining the direction of each index vector is as follows: a) randomly determining the initial direction of any index vector; b) taking the rotation angle theta around any circle center in the initial direction as the direction of another index vector along the clockwise or counterclockwise direction; the calculation method of the angle theta comprises the following steps:
wherein n is the number of the evaluation indexes.
Further, in step 1), the evaluation indexes are: technical and economic indexes, energy structure indexes, energy efficiency level indexes, energy-saving and environment-friendly indexes and reliable safety indexes.
Further, the technical and economic indicators include: total investment, return on investment, internal profitability.
Further, the energy structure index includes: the utilization rate of renewable energy sources, the proportion of heating and refrigerating machines of renewable energy sources and the permeability of heating and refrigerating of renewable energy sources.
Further, the energy efficiency level index includes: the total production energy consumption, the building energy consumption density and the comprehensive energy utilization efficiency of the unit area.
Further, the energy-saving and environment-friendly indexes comprise: total energy consumption, energy saving, greenhouse gas and main pollution emission reduction rate.
Further, the reliable safety indexes include: surplus capacity of energy facilities and energy supply reliability of the energy facilities.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a comprehensive energy scheme evaluation method implementation step based on comprehensive energy indexes;
FIG. 2 is an index system constructed by the method of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a diagram of normalized backward quantity of each index of the integrated energy planning project scheme.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Example (b):
the invention provides a novel comprehensive energy planning scheme evaluation scheme, which reduces weight setting links by calculating comprehensive energy indexes, further determines a relatively optimal scheme in a plan to be selected by carrying out balanced comparison on indexes of each scheme.
As shown in fig. 1, the evaluation method of the comprehensive energy planning scheme provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
1) establishing a five-dimensional comprehensive energy rating index system;
2) thinning and determining each scheme index calculation value;
3) transversely comparing, and normalizing the subitem index values of all schemes;
4) constructing and summing the index vectors of all schemes;
5) the planning scheme is preferred.
As shown in fig. 2, the comprehensive energy planning aided decision index system of the invention builds two-level indexes: 5 items of primary indexes are respectively as follows: the technology is economic, energy structure and energy efficiency level, reliable, safe, energy-saving and environment-friendly; the secondary indexes are 14 in total, and the technical and economic key indexes are 3: total investment, investment recovery period, internal rate of return; energy structure key index 3: the utilization rate of renewable energy sources, the proportion of heating and refrigerating machines of renewable energy sources and the permeability of heating and refrigerating of renewable energy sources; energy efficiency level 3: the total production energy consumption, the building energy consumption density and the comprehensive energy utilization efficiency of a unit area; reliable and safe 2 items: surplus capacity of energy facilities and energy supply reliability of the energy facilities; energy-saving and environment-friendly 3 items: the total energy consumption, energy saving, and emission reduction rate of greenhouse gases and main pollutant discharge.
The actual result value of the item to be evaluated is obtained aiming at each decision index, the actual result value can be obtained by the modes of data collection, substitution into a formula, calculation by expert evaluation, and the like, and the obtaining of the specific decision index result is not limited in the invention.
In order to embody 14 key auxiliary decision indexes in the same dimension and carry out visual comparison evaluation analysis, a normalization method is required to be adopted for each index, and a formula is used for preprocessing data to be within 0% -100%.
KeyOViKeyValue, a normalized value representing the ith planning scenario indicatoriThe actual result value of the ith planning scenario indicator is shown, and Abs indicates the absolute value.
And after normalization, carrying out primary transverse screening on the scheme, removing the scheme with unqualified decision indexes, and carrying out next-step vectorization design on the basis of the scheme with qualified decision indexes.
The data are preprocessed by adopting a normalization method for each index and then are subjected to vectorization design, the starting points of the vectors are all O points, the included angles of all the vectors are all theta in sequence, 14 decision indexes are listed in the embodiment, and therefore:
the vector length is an index value after normalization, that is, as shown in fig. 3, the comprehensive energy index is solved through space vector summation operation, and the minimum module value of the comprehensive energy index vector is the relatively optimal scheme in the numerous schemes.
Specifically, the maximum value of the modulus of the vector corresponding to each decision index in fig. 3 is 100, the percentage normalization value obtained by normalizing the actual result value of each decision index is multiplied by 100 to obtain the actual value of the modulus of the vector corresponding to the decision index (the normalized score of the index), the vector corresponding to each decision index is made into a vector diagram as shown in fig. 3, and the included angle between the vectors of each decision index is θ. And carrying out vector summation operation on each decision index to obtain a vector sum serving as a final evaluation vector, namely a final evaluation result. The evaluation vector as the final evaluation result is drawn in the vector diagram of fig. 3, and the smaller the modulus of the evaluation vector is, the more balanced the item is on each decision index without being biased; and if the evaluation vector points to which decision index, the item has more advantage on the decision index.
The final evaluation vector of the invention can provide more visual basis and support for comprehensive energy planning decision, and provide better help for decision makers in the selection of different combined energy planning schemes.
Claims (9)
1. An evaluation method of a comprehensive energy planning scheme is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) selecting comprehensive energy evaluation indexes;
2) obtaining an evaluation index result value corresponding to the comprehensive energy planning scheme;
3) normalizing the result value of each evaluation index to obtain a normalized value of each evaluation index;
4) constructing an index vector corresponding to each evaluation index, wherein the modulus of the index vector is the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation index or is determined by the normalized value of the corresponding evaluation index, and the direction of the index vector meets the following conditions: the vector sum of the unit vectors of each index vector is a zero vector;
5) and summing vectors of all the index vectors to obtain an evaluation vector, wherein the smaller the modulus of the evaluation vector is, the optimal corresponding comprehensive energy planning scheme is.
2. The method for evaluating an integrated energy planning program according to claim 1, wherein in step 3), the normalization process comprises:
KeyOViKeyValue, a normalized value representing the ith planning scenario indicatoriThe actual result value of the ith planning scenario indicator is shown, and Abs indicates the absolute value.
3. The method for evaluating an integrated energy planning project according to claim 1, wherein in step 4), the direction of each index vector is determined by: a) randomly determining the initial direction of any index vector; b) taking the rotation angle theta around any circle center in the initial direction as the direction of another index vector along the clockwise or counterclockwise direction; the calculation method of the angle theta comprises the following steps:
wherein n is the number of the evaluation indexes.
4. The method for evaluating an integrated energy planning program according to claim 1, wherein in step 1), the evaluation indexes are: technical and economic indexes, energy structure indexes, energy efficiency level indexes, energy-saving and environment-friendly indexes and reliable safety indexes.
5. The method of evaluating an integrated energy planning program of claim 4 wherein the technical economic indicators include: total investment, return on investment, internal profitability.
6. The method of evaluating an integrated energy planning program of claim 4 wherein the energy structure indicators comprise: the utilization rate of renewable energy sources, the proportion of heating and refrigerating machines of renewable energy sources and the permeability of heating and refrigerating of renewable energy sources.
7. The method of evaluating an integrated energy planning program according to claim 4, wherein the energy efficiency level indicators include: the total production energy consumption, the building energy consumption density and the comprehensive energy utilization efficiency of the unit area.
8. The method of evaluating an integrated energy planning program of claim 4, wherein the energy-saving and environmental-protection index includes: total energy consumption, energy saving, greenhouse gas and main pollution emission reduction rate.
9. The method of evaluating an integrated energy planning program of claim 4 wherein the reliable safety indicators include: surplus capacity of energy facilities and energy supply reliability of the energy facilities.
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