CN113821999B - Hydrological model applicability evaluation method for calculating design flood - Google Patents

Hydrological model applicability evaluation method for calculating design flood Download PDF

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CN113821999B
CN113821999B CN202111110139.8A CN202111110139A CN113821999B CN 113821999 B CN113821999 B CN 113821999B CN 202111110139 A CN202111110139 A CN 202111110139A CN 113821999 B CN113821999 B CN 113821999B
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刘佳
李传哲
王维
于福亮
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China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
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Abstract

The invention relates to a hydrological model applicability evaluation method for calculating design flood, which comprises the following steps: step 1, collecting and processing typical rainfall flood process data; step 2, selecting and rating a conceptual hydrological model; step 3, judging the applicability of the hydrological model in the research basin; step 4, substituting design rainstorm to obtain design flood; and 5, comparing the instantaneous unit line method and the original design result of the engineering to participate in the evidence. The method improves the empirical generalization in the calculation of the original design flood, analyzes the production convergence characteristic of the drainage basin from the drainage basin rainfall runoff yield theory, and deduces the design flood from a physical mechanism based on the applicability of the hydrological model. The method improves a design flood theory system, and is a novel method for calculating and designing the flood, which can be used for popularization and application.

Description

Hydrological model applicability evaluation method for calculating design flood
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method for applying for the Chinese patent medicine, wherein the application is applied on 2017, 11 and 21, and the application numbers are as follows: 201711161934.3 is a divisional application of an invention patent application named as a basin design flood estimation method based on a conceptual hydrological model. The invention relates to the technical field of flood risk management, in particular to a basin design flood calculation method based on a conceptual hydrological model.
Background
Except for large watersheds or typical hydrological stations, the flood forecasting process of China in general watersheds and hydrological stations still remains on the method for constructing the related relationship of rainfall runoff, and corresponding theoretical achievements in designing flood are relatively few, and the method is mainly represented by an inference formula method aiming at small watersheds and an instantaneous unit line method with good universality. However, both methods are only based on the statistical relationship of historical rainfall-runoff data, and have certain subjectivity in the process of planning flood. With the acceleration of the water conservancy modernization process, the acquisition of the regimen information is gradually improved, and a more objective and accurate method is needed for calculating the design flood.
The hydrological model is a product of continuously deepening the concept of water circulation process and basin confluence, and the conceptual hydrological model is an important branch of the hydrological model. The conceptual hydrological model is different from a black box model and is characterized in that the whole rainfall-runoff conversion process can be described, and the model structure focuses more on the physical meaning of parameters. The theoretical basis of the conceptual hydrological model is mature and widely applied to flood risk management and forecasting operation worldwide, different from the distributed and semi-distributed model in the exploration and trial stage.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention designs a hydrological model applicability evaluation method for calculating design flood, which solves the technical problems that in the current design flood calculation method, the calculation result is distorted based on subjective experience, and the limitation of the true situation of the flood cannot be reflected.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following scheme:
a basin design flood calculation method based on a conceptual hydrological model comprises the following steps:
step 1, collecting and processing typical rainfall flood process data;
step 2, selecting and rating a conceptual hydrological model;
step 3, judging the applicability of the hydrological model in the research basin;
step 4, substituting design rainstorm to obtain design flood;
and 5, comparing the instantaneous unit line method and the original design result of the engineering to participate in the certification.
Further, the typical rainfall process data collected in the step 1 comprises daily rainfall data and time-interval rainfall data of rainfall stations in the drainage basin, flood flow data and evaporation data, the rationality of the rainfall data, the evaporation data and the flood flow data of the selected drainage basin typical secondary flood is analyzed according to the lag and the correlation among the rainfall flows, and the non-conforming rainfall process is deleted;
wherein the daily rainfall data is used for calculating early-stage influence rainfall and the rainfall of the previous five days;
the rainfall data in the time period is used as a main input item of the hydrological model;
the flood flow data selects a flood process with a large peak height, and can appropriately select a small flood process with a better peak type, the selected small flood field number is controlled within 20%, and the flood field number used for simulation should be increased as much as possible under the permission of the data; dividing the flood magnitude can be divided according to the magnitude of flood recurrence periods or flood peaks in a drainage basin; wherein, the flood with the grade 1 is called small flood, the grade 2 is called general flood, the grade 3 is called larger flood, the grade 4 is called large flood, the grade 5 is called super large flood, and the grade above 6 is called extraordinary flood;
for the watershed with the lack of data, the evaporation data uses the data of the adjacent evaporation station or the average evaporation condition of the upper watershed.
Further, the flow data collected in the step 1 preferably adopts the flow data of the reference hydrological station before warehousing, and if the reference hydrological station is located at the downstream of the reservoir, the flow of the reference hydrological station needs to be subjected to reduction calculation processing.
Further, the reduction calculation adopts a water quantity balance method, the water quantity balance method is to calculate the warehousing flow by checking the storage and discharge relation of the water level reservoir of the built reservoir, and the flow after reduction is the average warehousing flow in the calculation period; the warehousing flow is calculated according to the following formula 1 and formula 2:
Figure BDA0003270302070000031
Figure BDA0003270302070000032
in the formula: Δ t is the calculation period length in units of s;
qtis the average warehouse-out flow in m3/s；
QtIs the average warehousing flow in a time interval and has the unit of m3/s；
Vt，Vt+1The storage capacity of the reservoir is at the beginning and the end of the time interval and the unit is m3；
qt，qt+1The flow rate of the warehouse outlet at the beginning and the end of the time interval is m3/s。
Further, the step 2 comprehensively considers different rainfall runoff characteristics of the watershed, and selects any one of a Xinanjiang model, a water tank model or an SCS model as a conceptual hydrological model with the most extensive application and simple parameters as an alternative.
Further, in the step 3, the rainfall data, the flood flow data and the evaporation data collected and processed in the step 1 are substituted into the step 2 to select and rate the conceptual hydrological model for simulation, the simulation result is compared with the actually measured flow process data, and the simulated flood peak, the flood relative error and the certainty coefficient are used as the evaluation standard of the applicability of the model in the application basin.
Further, the relative error in step 3 is calculated according to the following formula 3 and formula 4:
Figure BDA0003270302070000033
in the formula: epsilon1-relative error,%; qFruit of Chinese wolfberryActual peak flow, m3/s；QDie-simulating peak flow, m3/s；
Figure BDA0003270302070000041
In the formula: epsilon2Relative error,%; rFruit of Chinese wolfberryActual flood volume, mm; rDieIn order to simulate the flood volume, mm;
the certainty factor in step 3 is calculated according to equation 5:
Figure BDA0003270302070000042
in the formula: DC is the deterministic coefficient (2-bit decimal); y is0(i)Is an actual measured value; y isc(i)Is a predicted value;
Figure BDA0003270302070000043
is the mean value of measured values; n is the length of the data sequence; and calculating the qualified rate by using the relative error within 30% and the certainty coefficient of more than 50%, and selecting the model with the best simulation effect as the optimal model for basin design flood calculation.
Further, the selection of the designed rainstorm in the step 4 is transferred to the regional rain type given in the regional water map set or the selection of the historical typical field secondary flood (for example, the river basin historical maximum flood with the flow record), the ratio of the time-period rain amount to the secondary flood is used as the distribution rain type, the obtained time-period designed rainstorm value is used as the input item of the optimal model screened in the step 3, and the evaporation data is simulated by adopting the average time-period evaporation value in the flood season and being brought into the optimal model screened in the step 3.
Further, step 5 aims to further verify the conclusion obtained by the typical flood simulation in step 3, and the designed flood value obtained by the hydrological model algorithm and the engineering traditional algorithm can be mutually referred to and verified during engineering design.
Further, in the step 5, an instantaneous unit line method which is commonly used for flood design in medium and small watersheds is selected, the required checking and calculating data of the instantaneous unit line method are checked from the hydrological picture set of the corresponding area, and during engineering design, the hydrological model algorithm, the instantaneous unit line algorithm and the original engineering design flood value are mutually referred to and verified.
The basin design flood calculation method based on the conceptual hydrological model has the following beneficial effects:
the method selects a conceptual hydrological model with perfect theory and wide application, is applied to the simulation of designing the flood in the drainage basin with different rainfall runoff producing characteristics, changes the empirical generalization in the calculation of the original design flood, analyzes the runoff producing and converging mechanism from the perspective of the rainfall runoff producing theory, and estimates the design flood from the physical process, thereby improving the accuracy of the design flood, being beneficial to perfecting the theoretical system of the design flood and being a novel method which can be popularized and used for estimating the design flood.
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FIG. 1: the invention relates to a flow chart of a medium and small watershed design flood calculation method based on a conceptual hydrological model;
FIG. 2: the invention divides the flood map according to the flood recurrence period;
FIG. 3: the invention divides flood maps according to the flood peak;
FIG. 4: the model structure of the Xinanjiang river of the secondary water source used in the invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic view of: the water tank model structure used in the invention;
FIG. 6: SCS model structure used in the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a schematic view of: in the verification period, a typical flood simulation result diagram of 3 models is shown;
FIG. 8: the invention designs flood simulation results in a drainage basin;
FIG. 9: the invention relates to a table diagram for comparing flood peak and runoff quantity designed by a drainage basin in one hundred years.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below with reference to fig. 1 to 9:
the method improves the empirical generalization of the original design flood calculation method, analyzes the production convergence characteristics of the drainage basin from the drainage basin rainfall runoff yield theory, and deduces the design flood from a physical mechanism based on the applicability of the model. The method improves a design flood theory system, and is a novel method for calculating and designing the flood, which can be used for popularization and application.
As shown in fig. 1, a watershed design flood calculation method based on a conceptual hydrological model includes the following steps: step 1, collecting and processing typical rainfall flood process data; step 2, selecting and rating a conceptual hydrological model; step 3, judging the applicability of the hydrological model in the research basin; step 4, substituting design rainstorm to obtain design flood; and 5, comparing the instantaneous unit line method and the original design result of the engineering to participate in the certification.
Example (b): selecting a certain watershed, and adopting the method provided by the invention to simulate the hundred-year designed flood process, specifically comprising the following steps:
step 1, selecting daily rainfall and time period rainfall data and 1980-2012 flow data of a certain river basin, adopting 1980-2012 evaporation data of evaporation stations in the river basin for evaporation data, and taking the time period as 2h; because the reference station is positioned at the downstream of the reservoir, the reduction calculation of the reservoir is carried out on the initial flow according to the formula 1 and the formula 2 before the actual flood simulation is carried out, and 16 flood fields with large flood volume and good continuity are selected as the calibration and verification data of the hydrological model. Because the basin area is small and the historical data is limited, the classification error of station flood in the basin according to the recurrence period is large, the station flood is classified according to the flood peak by adopting a graph 3, and 3 fields of 3-level large flood, 10 fields of 2-level general flood and 3 fields of 1-level small flood are selected after the area of the basin is converted.
As shown in fig. 2, the division of the flood magnitude may also be divided according to the flood recurrence period; among them, the flood of level 1 is called small flood, level 2 is called general flood, level 3 is called large flood, level 4 is called large flood, level 5 is called extra large flood, and level 6 or more is called extraordinary flood.
And 2, selecting 3 hydrological models of a two-water-source Xinanjiang model, a water tank model and an SCS model according to the rainfall runoff characteristics of the drainage basin. And (4) adopting the 13 fields of flood in the step 1 to calibrate the parameters of the hydrological model respectively. The structure of the Xinanjiang model is shown in figure 4, the water tank model adopts 2 layers of water tanks connected in series, the structure of the water tank model is shown in figure 5, and the structure of the SCS model is shown in figure 6.
Specifically, the water source part of the selected Xinanjiang model is divided into an earth surface water source and an underground water source through stable infiltration rate, the runoff producing part adopts a full runoff producing mode, and the confluence part adopts a unit line to calculate the earth surface and a linear reservoir to calculate the underground flood process. WU, WL and WD respectively represent the initial upper tension water storage amount of the basin, the initial lower tension water storage amount of the basin and the initial deep tension water storage amount of the basin; EU, EL and ED respectively represent the upper layer evapotranspiration amount, the lower layer evapotranspiration amount and the deep layer evapotranspiration amount; IMP is the ratio of the water-impermeable area to the total flow area; ew is the evaporation amount in the watershed period.
The water tank model adopts 2 layers of water tank series structures, in the upper water tank: the upper hole simulates surface runoff, the lower hole simulates interflow, and the bottom hole is used for simulating the infiltration water amount; in the lower water tank: the side holes simulate subsurface runoff, and the bottom holes are used for simulating the amount of infiltration water (the bottom holes of the lower-layer water tank of the large-scale closed basin can be closed). In the model, P is the rainfall in time period, E is the evaporation capacity in time period, x is the water storage depth of the water tank, y is the runoff in time period, z is the seepage capacity in time period, and alpha and beta are corresponding outflow coefficients.
S in the SCS model is possible retention capacity of a watershed at that time, and is mm; I.C. AaFor initial loss, CN is the curve index and F is the basin area.
And 3, respectively substituting the rainfall and evaporation data collected and processed in the step 1 into the 3 calibrated hydrological models in the step 2 for simulation. And (3) selecting the rest 3 fields of flood in the step (1) to verify the simulation effect of the model, wherein the verification results of the two fields of flood with better simulation effect are shown in a figure 5. And calculating relative errors and certainty coefficients according to formulas 3, 4 and 5, calculating the qualified rate by using the peak error within 30% and the certainty coefficient above 50%, and selecting a model with the best simulation effect as the optimal model for basin design flood calculation. The qualification rate of the Xinanjiang model obtained by simulation is 92.3%, the qualification rate of the water tank model is 64.2%, and the qualification rate of the SCS model is 50%, so that the Xinanjiang model is selected as the optimal model for flood calculation in basin design.
And 4, selecting the hundred-year-one-raining type given in the hydrological picture set, taking the obtained time-interval design rainstorm value as the input of the optimal model screened in the step 4, and calculating the hundred-year-one-year design flood of the drainage basin by adopting the average time-interval evaporation value of the flood season according to evaporation data, wherein the result is shown in fig. 6.
As can be seen from fig. 7, when a flood process of a river basin in one hundred years is simulated, the design flood calculation result of the new anjiang model is evaluated by taking the original design value of the engineering as a standard, the flood peak error and the flood volume error are respectively-5.3% and-5.4%, and the errors are controlled within 10%, which are both less than the calculation results of the instantaneous unit line method of-13.4% and 14.3%.
The invention is described by way of example in the accompanying drawings, and it is to be understood that the invention is not limited in its implementation to the details of construction and to the arrangements of the components set forth in the following description, since various modifications may be made in the method, concept and arrangement of the invention, or may be made by the use of the concept and arrangement of the invention in other applications without modification.

Claims (3)

1. A hydrological model suitability assessment method for use in inferring design floods, comprising the steps of:
step 1, collecting and processing typical rainfall flood process data;
the flow data collected in the step 1 preferably adopts the flow data of the reference hydrological station before warehousing, and if the reference hydrological station is located at the downstream of the reservoir, the flow of the reference hydrological station needs to be subjected to reduction calculation processing;
step 2, selecting and rating a conceptual hydrological model;
step 3, judging the applicability of the hydrological model in the research basin;
in the step 3, the rainfall data, the flood flow data and the evaporation data collected and processed in the step 1 are substituted into the conceptual hydrological model selected and calibrated in the step 2 for simulation, a simulation result is compared with actually measured flow process data, and a simulated flood peak, a flood relative error and a certainty coefficient are used as evaluation standards of the applicability of the model in the application basin; calculating the qualified rate by using the relative error within 30% and the certainty coefficient of more than 50%, and selecting a model with the best simulation effect as an optimal model for basin design flood calculation;
step 4, substituting design rainstorm to obtain design flood;
the selection of the rainstorm designed in the step 4 is transferred to the regional rain type given in the regional hydrological chart set or the selected historical typical field sub-flood, the drainage basin historical maximum flood with the flow record is used, the time-period rainfall sub-flood ratio is used as the distribution rain type, the obtained time-period design rainstorm value is used as the input item of the optimal model screened in the step 3, and the evaporation data is simulated by adopting the average time-period evaporation value in the flood season and being brought into the optimal model screened in the step 3;
step 5, comparing the instantaneous unit line method and the original design result of the engineering to participate in the certification;
and 5, further verifying the conclusion obtained by the typical flood simulation in the step 3, wherein the design flood value obtained by the hydrological model algorithm and the engineering traditional algorithm can be mutually referred to and verified in engineering design.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the method comprises: the typical rainfall flood process data collected in the step 1 comprise daily rainfall data and time-interval rainfall data of rainfall stations in the drainage basin, flood flow data and evaporation data, the rationality of the rainfall data, the evaporation data and the flood flow data of the selected drainage basin typical flood is analyzed according to the lag and correlation among the rainfall flows, and the non-conforming rainfall flood process is deleted;
wherein the daily rainfall data is used for calculating early-stage influence rainfall and rainfall in the previous five days;
the rainfall data in the time period is used as a main input item of the hydrological model;
the flood flow data selects a flood process with a large peak height, and can properly select a small flood process with a better peak type, the selected small flood field number is controlled within 20 percent, and the flood field number used for simulation is increased as much as possible under the permission of the data; the division of the flood magnitude can be divided according to the magnitude of a flood recurrence period or a flood peak in a drainage basin; wherein, flood with grade 1 is called small flood, grade 2 is called general flood, grade 3 is called larger flood, grade 4 is called large flood, grade 5 is called super large flood, grade 6 is called extraordinary flood;
for the watershed with the lack of data, the evaporation data uses the data of the adjacent evaporation station or the average evaporation condition of the upper watershed.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the method comprises: the reduction calculation in the step 1 adopts a water quantity balance method, the water quantity balance method is to calculate the warehousing flow by checking the storage and discharge relation of the water level reservoir of the built reservoir, and the flow after reduction is the average warehousing flow in the calculation period; the warehousing flow rate is calculated according to the following formula 1 and formula 2:
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
formula 1;
Figure 885571DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
formula 2;
in the formula:Δtfor calculating the time period length, the unit is s;
Figure DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
is the average warehouse-out flow in m3/s；
Q t Is the average warehousing flow in a time interval and has the unit of m3/s；
V t ，V t+1 The storage capacity of the reservoir is at the beginning and the end of the time interval and the unit is m3；
q t ，q t+1 The flow rate of the warehouse outlet at the beginning and the end of the time interval is m3/s。
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