CN113807667A - Reservoir flood control forecast optimal scheduling method for downstream flood control point - Google Patents

Reservoir flood control forecast optimal scheduling method for downstream flood control point Download PDF

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CN113807667A
CN113807667A CN202111000210.7A CN202111000210A CN113807667A CN 113807667 A CN113807667 A CN 113807667A CN 202111000210 A CN202111000210 A CN 202111000210A CN 113807667 A CN113807667 A CN 113807667A
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flood
flood control
reservoir
scheduling
forecast
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何中政
闫峰
尹恒
洪安宇
徐富刚
黄伟
付吉斯
贾卓
熊斌
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Nanchang University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir flood control forecast optimization scheduling method aiming at a downstream flood control point, which is characterized in that a reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model is established by taking the minimum maximum peak flow and the minimum square of the flow in the flood process as targets, and the reservoir flood control optimization scheduling model aiming at the downstream flood control point is established by combining a river channel flood calculation model; and then, optimizing the reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model from the current time interval to the effective forecast period by adopting a successive optimization algorithm under the constraint condition of safe operation of the reservoir through acquiring flood forecast information in the effective forecast period to obtain an optimal decision sequence of a forecast optimal scheduling scheme, and further guiding flood control scheduling of the current time interval of the reservoir. The method has outstanding flood-blocking peak clipping performance, does not need to rely on a large amount of historical data to generate a dispatching graph or dispatching rules, is easy for dispatching personnel to practice and operate, can fully utilize forecast information, effectively blocks flood and performs peak clipping aiming at the flood process of a downstream flood control point.

Description

Reservoir flood control forecast optimal scheduling method for downstream flood control point
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of reservoir flood control scheduling, in particular to a reservoir flood control forecast optimal scheduling method for a downstream flood control point.
Background
The reservoir is an important engineering measure for flood control in the drainage basin, and the reservoir flood control scheduling is an important non-engineering measure for flood control in the drainage basin. At present, reservoir flood control dispatching operation mainly depends on conventional dispatching and optimized dispatching technologies. The conventional scheduling mainly completes flood control decision according to a scheduling graph or a scheduling rule, the method is simple and easy to operate, but the conventional scheduling excessively depends on historical information, and the receiving capability of real-time information and forecast information is poor. The optimized scheduling scheme is solved mainly according to the designed flood or historical flood process, and the method cannot adapt to the real-time water regime in the actual reservoir scheduling and has poor operability. At the present stage, the short-term flood forecasting precision and the effective forecasting period in China can preliminarily meet the actual dispatching requirement, and a reservoir flood control forecasting optimization dispatching method which can effectively utilize forecasting information and is easy to operate is urgently needed to be searched.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a reservoir flood control forecast optimization scheduling method aiming at a downstream flood control point, which aims at the minimum peak flow and the minimum square of the flood process flow of the downstream flood control point, establishes a flood control optimization scheduling model aiming at the minimum peak flow and the minimum square of the flood process flow of the downstream flood control point, develops the solution of the reservoir short-term flood control optimization scheduling model by combining short-term flood forecast information, executes reservoir scheduling operation in an confronted period according to the short-term flood control forecast optimization scheduling scheme obtained by the solution, and effectively stores flood and performs peak clipping aiming at the flood process of the downstream flood control point by implementing a 'forecast-optimization-decision' process in a rolling manner.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a reservoir flood control forecast optimization scheduling method for a downstream flood control point, which performs forecast optimization scheduling adjustment calculation according to flood forecast information in an effective forecast period, guides actual flood control scheduling in an confronted period according to an optimization scheduling scheme, and performs a "forecast-optimization-decision" process by rolling to effectively block flood and perform peak clipping for a flood process of the downstream flood control point, and specifically comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model aiming at a downstream flood control point maximum peak clipping criterion by taking the maximum peak flow of the flood control point and the flow square of the flood process as the targets;
step 2, establishing a river channel flood calculation model from a reservoir to a downstream flood control point according to the Masjing root method, and combining the river channel flood calculation model with the reservoir flood control optimized scheduling model obtained in the step 1 to obtain a reservoir flood control optimized scheduling model for the downstream flood control point;
step 3, marking the serial number of the current time interval as t, and acquiring the initial storage capacity V of the reservoir in the current time intervalt-1；
Step 4, obtaining the effective forecast period T by adopting a short-term flood forecast technologyp(TpFlood forecast information in a period of ≧ τ +2 Δ t)
Figure BDA0003235314070000021
Step 5, under the constraint condition of safe operation of the reservoir, according to the forecast information obtained in the step 4
Figure BDA0003235314070000022
And the initial storage capacity V of the reservoir in the step 3t-1Using successive optimization POA to carry out successive optimization on the current time period from T to T + Tp-1 (corresponding to a validity anticipation period T)p) Optimizing reservoir flood control optimized dispatching model in time period to obtain optimal decision sequence of forecast optimized dispatching scheme
Figure BDA0003235314070000023
Step 6, according to the optimal decision sequence of the forecast optimization scheduling scheme obtained in the step 5
Figure BDA0003235314070000024
Guiding flood control scheduling of the reservoir at the current time t;
and 7, repeating the steps 3-6, and performing flood control dispatching on the reservoir in the next period until the dispatching is finished.
Specifically, in step 1, a reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model for a downstream flood control point maximum peak clipping criterion is established with the objective of minimum maximum peak discharge of the flood control point and minimum flow squared in the flood process, and the reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model is expressed as:
Figure BDA0003235314070000031
in the above formula: obj1-a target value for minimum maximum peak flow at a downstream flood control point;
t-flood control scheduling period or flood duration of the reservoir;
Figure BDA0003235314070000032
-average flow at time t of downstream flood control point;
Obj2-a target value for the minimum sum of squares of flood process flow at the downstream flood control point.
Specifically, in step S2, a river flood calculation model from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point is established according to the masjing root method, and the establishment method of the flood calculation model is as follows:
determining the flow calculation time lag from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point as tau, and the calculation time interval length as delta t, and then calculating the model as follows:
Figure BDA0003235314070000033
wherein:
Figure BDA0003235314070000034
in the above formula: k is the gradient of the storage flow relation curve;
C0、C1、C2-three calculation parameters of the Maskyo method.
Specifically, in the step 5, the optimal decision sequence of the optimized scheduling scheme is forecasted, and the priorities of different decision processes in the decision sequence are determined by the following method:
obj with minimum maximum peak flow due to flood control points1The priority is obviously higher than the minimum Obj of the sum of squares of the flows of the flood process2Therefore, a multi-target priority processing mode is adopted to optimize the two targets;
when two decision processes A and B correspond to the target
Figure BDA0003235314070000035
And
Figure BDA0003235314070000036
when the following conditions are met, the decision process A is superior to the decision process B;
Figure BDA0003235314070000041
or
Figure BDA0003235314070000042
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the existing reservoir flood control dispatching method mainly comprises conventional dispatching and optimized dispatching; the conventional scheduling mainly completes flood control decision according to a scheduling graph or a scheduling rule, a large amount of historical operating data or long sequence optimization calculation results are needed to generate the scheduling graph or the scheduling rule, and the receptivity to real-time information and forecast information is poor; the optimized scheduling scheme is solved mainly according to the designed flood or historical flood process, and the method cannot adapt to the real-time water regime in the actual reservoir scheduling and has poor operability.
According to the method, optimization regulation calculation is carried out according to flood forecast information in an effective forecast period, then a period-faced scheduling decision of the reservoir is executed according to a forecast optimization scheduling scheme, and a 'forecast-optimization-decision' process is implemented in a rolling mode to assist in guiding the reservoir to carry out flood control scheduling operation. A large amount of data is not needed to generate a scheduling rule, and the method is easy for the practice and operation of scheduling personnel; the forecasting information can be fully utilized, reservoir flood control forecasting optimized dispatching can be carried out aiming at the downstream flood control points, flood is effectively blocked, and peak clipping is carried out aiming at the flood process of the downstream flood control points.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a reservoir flood prevention forecast optimized scheduling method for a downstream flood prevention control point according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a change in water level of a reservoir according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating the variation of the flow rate of a reservoir according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic view showing a flow change of a downstream flood protection station of a certain reservoir in the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without any inventive step, are within the scope of the present invention.
Example (b): see fig. 1-4.
As shown in fig. 1, a reservoir flood prevention forecast optimal scheduling method for a downstream flood prevention control point includes the following steps:
step 1, establishing a reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model aiming at a downstream flood control point maximum peak clipping criterion by taking the maximum peak flow of the flood control point and the flow square of the flood process as the targets;
step 2, establishing a river channel flood calculation model from a reservoir to a downstream flood control point according to the Masjing root method, and combining the river channel flood calculation model with the reservoir flood control optimized scheduling model obtained in the step 1 to obtain a reservoir flood control optimized scheduling model for the downstream flood control point;
step 3, marking the serial number of the current time interval as t, and acquiring the initial storage capacity V of the reservoir in the current time intervalt-1；
Step 4, obtaining the effective forecast period T by adopting a short-term flood forecast technologyp(TpFlood forecast information in the range of not less than τ +2 Δ t)
Figure BDA0003235314070000051
Step 5, under the constraint condition of safe operation of the reservoir, according to the forecast information obtained in the step 4
Figure BDA0003235314070000052
And the initial storage capacity V of the reservoir in the step 3t-1Using successive optimization POA to carry out successive optimization on the current time period from T to T + Tp-1 (corresponding to a validity anticipation period T)p) Optimizing reservoir flood control optimized dispatching model in time period to obtain optimal decision sequence of forecast optimized dispatching scheme
Figure BDA0003235314070000061
Step 6, optimizing and dispatching party according to the forecast obtained in the step 5Optimal decision sequence of scenarios
Figure BDA0003235314070000062
Guiding flood control scheduling of the reservoir at the current time t;
and 7, repeating the steps 3-6, and performing flood control dispatching on the reservoir in the next period until the dispatching is finished.
Specifically, in step 1, a reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model for a downstream flood control point maximum peak clipping criterion is established with the objective of minimum maximum peak discharge of the flood control point and minimum flow squared in the flood process, and the reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model is expressed as:
Figure BDA0003235314070000063
in the above formula: obj1-a target value for minimum maximum peak flow at a downstream flood control point;
t-flood control scheduling period or flood duration of the reservoir;
Figure BDA0003235314070000064
-average flow at time t of downstream flood control point;
Obj2-a target value for the minimum sum of squares of flood process flow at the downstream flood control point.
Specifically, in step S2, a river flood calculation model from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point is established according to the masjing root method, and the establishment method of the flood calculation model is as follows:
determining the flow calculation time lag from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point as tau, and the calculation time interval length as delta t, and then calculating the model as follows:
Figure BDA0003235314070000065
wherein:
Figure BDA0003235314070000066
in the above formula: k is the gradient of the storage flow relation curve;
C0、C1、C2-three calculation parameters of the Maskyo method.
Specifically, in the step 5, the optimal decision sequence of the optimized scheduling scheme is forecasted, and the priorities of different decision processes in the decision sequence are determined by the following method:
obj with minimum maximum peak flow due to flood control points1The priority is obviously higher than the minimum Obj of the sum of squares of the flows of the flood process2Therefore, a multi-target priority processing mode is adopted to optimize the two targets;
when two decision processes A and B correspond to the target
Figure BDA0003235314070000071
And
Figure BDA0003235314070000072
when the following conditions are met, the decision process A is superior to the decision process B;
Figure BDA0003235314070000073
or
Figure BDA0003235314070000074
Example 1
A large reservoir in the midstream of Ganjiang is taken as a research object, a flood control forecast optimization scheduling model of the reservoir to a downstream flood control station of the reservoir is established, and a typical flood process of the region in two fields of 7 months in 1992 and 7 months in 2019 in 50 years is selected for analysis.
Setting model parameters: the length of the dispatching time interval is set to 6h, the time from the reservoir to the flood control station is set to 18h, the optimal dispatching of the flood control forecast of the reservoir in the embodiment mainly depends on forecast information, 24h, 30h, 36h, 48h, 60h and 72h effective forecast periods are respectively input, and the effect of the technical method under different forecast period conditions is analyzed.
As shown in fig. 2-4, the reservoir flood control scheduling process and the flow process of the downstream flood control station of the reservoir under the flood process condition are given, in order to check the effectiveness of the method provided by the present invention, a simulation result of the reservoir flood-late flood period pre-discharge scheduling rule is further added in this embodiment, and a comparative analysis is performed by solving the flood control optimization scheduling result by using POA under the deterministic water-coming condition, where the analysis result is shown in the following table 1:
table 1 statistics table for flood blocking and peak clipping results of downstream flood control station by scheduling operation of different schemes
Figure BDA0003235314070000081
The above analysis results show that:
1) according to the current scheduling regulation, the reservoir has weak flood blocking and peak clipping effects on downstream flood control stations, the peak clipping rate is 0.15 percent and 0.64 percent respectively, and only the task of not increasing the downstream flood control pressure is realized;
2) according to the method of the invention, the reservoir is guided to carry out flood blocking and peak clipping aiming at the downstream flood control station, and the effect is more obvious: aiming at the flood process of 7 months in 1992, when 36h effective forecast information is adopted, the peak clipping rate is 11.48%, and the peak clipping rate of a deterministic optimal scheduling result is 13.56%; aiming at the flood process of 7 months in 2019, when effective forecast information of 48h is adopted, the peak clipping rate is 13.84%, and the peak clipping rate of the deterministic optimal scheduling result is 14.62%.
3) When the reservoir utilizes the forecast information to carry out flood control scheduling on the downstream flood control point, the forecast information is at least 2 time intervals more than the flood propagation time lag, namely Tp＝τ+2Δt。
In conclusion, the peak clipping effect and the deterministic optimal scheduling result of the forecast optimal scheduling strategy adopting the method are relatively close; compared with the existing scheduling rule, the method has outstanding flood-blocking peak clipping performance, does not need to rely on a large amount of historical data to generate a scheduling graph or a scheduling rule, and is easy for scheduling personnel to practice and operate; the forecasting information can be fully utilized, reservoir flood control forecasting optimized dispatching can be carried out aiming at the downstream flood control points, flood is effectively blocked, and peak clipping is carried out aiming at the flood process of the downstream flood control points.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above examples are only intended to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, but not to limit it; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims (4)

1. A reservoir flood control forecast optimization scheduling method aiming at a downstream flood control point is characterized by comprising the following steps of carrying out forecast optimization scheduling adjustment calculation according to flood forecast information in an effective forecast period, guiding actual flood control scheduling in an confronted time interval according to an optimization scheduling scheme, and carrying out a 'forecast-optimization-decision' process through rolling so as to effectively block flood and carry out peak clipping aiming at a flood process of the downstream flood control point, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
step 1, establishing a reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model aiming at a downstream flood control point maximum peak clipping criterion by taking the maximum peak flow of the flood control point and the flow square of the flood process as the targets;
step 2, establishing a river channel flood calculation model from a reservoir to a downstream flood control point according to the Masjing root method, and combining the river channel flood calculation model with the reservoir flood control optimized scheduling model obtained in the step 1 to obtain a reservoir flood control optimized scheduling model for the downstream flood control point;
step 3, marking the serial number of the current time interval as t, and acquiring the initial storage capacity V of the reservoir in the current time intervalt-1；
Step 4, obtaining the effective forecast period T by adopting a short-term flood forecast technologyp(TpFlood forecast information in a period of ≧ τ +2 Δ t)
Figure FDA0003235314060000011
Step 5, under the constraint condition of safe operation of the reservoir, according to the forecast information obtained in the step 4
Figure FDA0003235314060000012
And the initial storage capacity V of the reservoir set in the step 3t-1Using successive optimization POA to carry out successive optimization on the current time period from T to T + TpOptimizing the reservoir flood control optimized dispatching model in the period of-1 to obtain the optimal decision sequence of the forecast optimized dispatching scheme
Figure FDA0003235314060000013
Step 6, according to the optimal decision sequence of the forecast optimization scheduling scheme obtained in the step 5
Figure FDA0003235314060000014
Guiding flood control scheduling of the reservoir at the current time t;
and 7, repeating the steps 3-6, and performing flood control dispatching on the reservoir in the next period until the dispatching is finished.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein a reservoir flood control forecast optimal scheduling model for a maximum peak clipping criterion of the downstream flood control point is established in step 1 with the objective of minimum maximum peak flow of the flood control point and minimum square of flow of a flood process, and the reservoir flood control optimal scheduling model is expressed as:
Figure FDA0003235314060000021
in the above formula: obj1-a target value for minimum maximum peak flow at a downstream flood control point;
t-flood control scheduling period or flood duration of the reservoir;
Figure FDA0003235314060000022
-average flow at time t of downstream flood control point;
Obj2-a target value for the minimum sum of squares of flood process flow at the downstream flood control point.
3. The method for optimizing and scheduling reservoir flood prevention forecasting aiming at the downstream flood prevention control point according to claim 1, wherein in step S2, a river flood calculation model from the reservoir to the downstream flood prevention control point is established according to the masjing root method, and the establishment method of the flood calculation model is as follows:
determining the flow calculation time lag from the reservoir to the downstream flood control point as tau, and the calculation time interval length as delta t, and then calculating the model as follows:
Figure FDA0003235314060000023
wherein:
Figure FDA0003235314060000024
in the above formula: k is the gradient of the storage flow relation curve;
C0、C1、C2-three calculation parameters of the Maskyo method.
4. The method for forecasting, optimizing and scheduling flood control of a reservoir for a downstream flood control point according to claim 1, wherein the forecasting, optimizing and scheduling scheme in step 5 is an optimal decision sequence, and priorities of different decision processes in the decision sequence are determined by the following method:
obj with minimum maximum peak flow due to flood control points1The priority is obviously higher than the minimum Obj of the sum of squares of the flows of the flood process2Therefore, a multi-target priority processing mode is adopted to optimize the two targets;
when two decision processes A and B correspond to the target
Figure FDA0003235314060000031
And
Figure FDA0003235314060000032
when the following conditions are met, the decision process A is superior to the decision process B;
Figure FDA0003235314060000033
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