CN113807584A - Method and terminal for predicting downstream water level - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a terminal for predicting downstream water level, wherein a plurality of key characteristic measuring stations are selected for each upstream converged to the same downstream and are segmented step by step; for each upstream, acquiring a water level process line of each two adjacent stages of subsections in the previous preset time period, converting the water level process line into a flow process line, and predicting the flow process line of a subsection positioned at the lower stage in the two adjacent stages of subsections in the next preset time period until the flow process lines of the last stage of subsections in a plurality of preset time periods are obtained; merging and superposing the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time intervals of the last stage of segmentation, and converting the flow process lines back to the water level process line to obtain a downstream predicted water level process line. The invention adopts the idea of gradual prediction as a whole, takes an upstream drainage basin as a core, can have prediction capability by only selecting a plurality of key characteristic stations, reduces the influence of different geographic environments on calculation, improves the accuracy of a prediction result, has high calculation speed, small data volume and low complexity, and meets the quick response of short-term prediction.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of scheduling management of hydrodynamics and hydrodynamics forecasting models, in particular to a method and a terminal for predicting downstream water level.
Background
The current hydrokinetic forecasting model on the market needs to analyze real-time data based on a large amount of water and rain condition monitoring equipment, so that the hardware laying and later equipment maintenance cost is high; the forecasting and predicting result is greatly influenced by the geographic environment, the forecasting accuracy is not high in mountainous areas and plain areas, and necessary manual experience intervention is lacked; meanwhile, the model calculation consumes long time, the calculation result data volume is large, the resolution complexity is high, and the requirement of short-term forecasting cannot be quickly and timely responded under extreme weather conditions such as typhoon and the like.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: the method and the terminal for predicting the downstream water level are provided, so that the cost is reduced, and more accurate and rapid prediction of the downstream water level can be provided.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the technical scheme that: a method of predicting a downstream water level, comprising the steps of:
s1, selecting a plurality of key feature testing stations for each upstream converged to the same downstream, and segmenting each upstream key feature testing station step by step according to the flow direction, wherein each segment corresponds to one key feature testing station;
s2, for each upstream, acquiring a water level process line of each two adjacent stages in a previous preset time period, converting the water level process line into a flow process line, predicting the flow process line of a stage positioned at a lower stage in the two adjacent stages in the next preset time period until the flow process lines of the last stage in a plurality of preset time periods are obtained, wherein the previous preset time period and the next preset time period are continuous time periods;
and S3, merging and superposing the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time periods of each upstream last-stage subsection, and converting the flow process lines back to the water level process line to obtain a downstream predicted water level process line.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention adopts another technical scheme as follows: a terminal for predicting a downstream water level, comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the following steps when executing the computer program:
s1, selecting a plurality of key feature testing stations for each upstream converged to the same downstream, and segmenting each upstream key feature testing station step by step according to the flow direction, wherein each segment corresponds to one key feature testing station;
s2, for each upstream, acquiring a water level process line of each two adjacent stages in a previous preset time period, converting the water level process line into a flow process line, predicting the flow process line of a stage positioned at a lower stage in the two adjacent stages in the next preset time period until the flow process lines of the last stage in a plurality of preset time periods are obtained, wherein the previous preset time period and the next preset time period are continuous time periods;
and S3, merging and superposing the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time periods of each upstream last-stage subsection, and converting the flow process lines back to the water level process line to obtain a downstream predicted water level process line.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the invention provides a method and a terminal for predicting downstream water level, which are characterized in that a plurality of key characteristic measuring stations are selected for each upstream converged to the same downstream, the downstream water level is segmented step by step according to the flow direction, the water level process line of the segment positioned at the lower stage in each two adjacent stages is predicted at the later preset time interval according to the water level process line of the previous preset time interval of each two adjacent stages, the water level process line is converted into a flow process line, the next preset time interval is repeatedly predicted through the previous preset time interval, finally, the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time intervals of the last stage segment of each upstream are obtained, then, the flow process lines of the last stage segment of each upstream are merged into the flow process line of a complete time interval, the flow process lines of the complete time intervals corresponding to all the upstream are superposed, the superposed flow process lines are converted into the water level process line, and the downstream predicted water level process line of each upstream converged into the downstream is obtained, the method has the advantages that the concept of gradual prediction is integrally adopted, the problem that the cost is high due to the fact that detection hardware is laid when the existing prediction of the downstream water level is carried out is solved, the upstream drainage basin is used as a core, prediction and prediction capabilities can be achieved only by selecting a plurality of key characteristic stations at the upstream and acquiring the actual water level process line measured in the previous preset time period, the influences of different geographic environments on calculation are reduced, the accuracy of prediction results is improved, the calculation speed is high, the data size is small, the complexity is low, and the quick response of short-term prediction under extreme conditions can be met.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is an overall flow chart of a method of predicting downstream water level of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart of a method for predicting a downstream water level according to an embodiment
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a terminal for predicting a downstream water level according to the present invention.
Description of reference numerals:
1. a terminal for predicting a downstream water level; 2. a memory; 3. a processor.
Detailed Description
In order to explain technical contents, achieved objects, and effects of the present invention in detail, the following description is made with reference to the accompanying drawings in combination with the embodiments.
Referring to fig. 1 and 2, a method for predicting a downstream water level includes the steps of:
s1, selecting a plurality of key feature testing stations for each upstream converged to the same downstream, and segmenting each upstream key feature testing station step by step according to the flow direction, wherein each segment corresponds to one key feature testing station;
s2, for each upstream, acquiring a water level process line of each two adjacent stages in a previous preset time period, converting the water level process line into a flow process line, predicting the flow process line of a stage positioned at a lower stage in the two adjacent stages in the next preset time period until the flow process lines of the last stage in a plurality of preset time periods are obtained, wherein the previous preset time period and the next preset time period are continuous time periods;
and S3, merging and superposing the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time periods of each upstream last-stage subsection, and converting the flow process lines back to the water level process line to obtain a downstream predicted water level process line.
As can be seen from the above description, the beneficial effects of the present invention are: selecting a plurality of key characteristic measuring stations for each upstream converged at the same downstream, segmenting stage by stage according to the flow direction, predicting the water level process line of the segment positioned at the lower stage in each adjacent two-stage segment at the next preset time period according to the water level process line of the previous preset time period of each adjacent two-stage segment, converting the water level process line into a flow process line, repeatedly predicting the next preset time period through the previous preset time period to finally obtain a plurality of flow process lines of the preset time period of the last stage segment of each upstream, combining the plurality of preset time periods of each upstream into a flow process line of a complete time period, superposing the flow process lines of the complete time periods respectively corresponding to all the upstream, converting the superposed flow process lines into the water level process line to obtain the downstream predicted water level process line of each upstream converged at the downstream, the method has the advantages that the concept of gradual prediction is integrally adopted, the problem that the cost is high due to the fact that detection hardware is laid when the existing prediction of the downstream water level is carried out is solved, the upstream drainage basin is used as a core, prediction and prediction capabilities can be achieved only by selecting a plurality of key characteristic stations at the upstream and acquiring the actual water level process line measured in the previous preset time period, the influences of different geographic environments on calculation are reduced, the accuracy of prediction results is improved, the calculation speed is high, the data size is small, the complexity is low, and the quick response of short-term prediction under extreme conditions can be met.
Further, the S2 specifically includes:
for each upstream, if the previous preset time interval is the current time interval, acquiring an actual water level process line of each two adjacent stages in the current time interval, converting the actual water level process line into an actual flow process line, and predicting the flow process line of the next preset time interval of the current time interval according to the change rule of the actual flow process line, wherein the previous preset time interval and the next preset time interval are continuous time intervals;
otherwise, predicting the flow process line of the segment positioned at the lower stage in the adjacent two-stage segments in the next preset time period according to the change rule of the flow process line of each adjacent two-stage segment in the previous preset time period until the flow process line of the last stage segment in a plurality of preset time periods is obtained.
It can be known from the above description that the actual water level process line measured by the key feature measurement station can be directly used for predicting the flow process line of the next preset time period, and the next preset time period of the next preset time period can be predicted again through the predicted flow process line, so that the predicted flow process line of each upstream in a plurality of continuous time periods can be obtained by gradually predicting one time period by one time period, that is, the flow process line of each upstream merging into the downstream in a longer time period is finally obtained, and when the time goes to the first preset time period predicted at that time, the flow process line of the next time and the flow process line of the later time can be adaptively adjusted by further adjusting the deviation between the predicted flow process line of the first preset time period obtained at that time and the actual time, that is, the downstream prediction can be quickly corrected according to the real-time change condition of the upstream, the accuracy of the predicted value is ensured.
Further, the S3 specifically includes the following steps:
s31, merging the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time intervals of each upstream section at the last stage to obtain a predicted flow process line of each upstream section to be merged into the downstream section;
and S32, multiplying each upstream predicted flow process line by an empirical prediction value, and then superposing to obtain a downstream predicted flow process line, converting the downstream predicted flow process line into a water level process line, and superposing an astronomical tide process line to obtain the downstream predicted water level process line, wherein the empirical prediction value is 100-120%.
It can be known from the above description that the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time periods obtained by each upstream prediction are merged into a flow process line of a complete time period, in order to enable the merged flow process line to have a more accurate predicted value, the merged flow process line is multiplied by the historical accumulated empirical data value of 100-120%, meanwhile, since the water flowing into the downstream comes from a plurality of upstream, the flow process lines of the complete time periods obtained by each upstream merging need to be overlapped, and finally the flow process lines are converted back to the water level process line, so as to obtain an accurate downstream water level predicted value.
Further, the step S3 is followed by the step of:
and S4, obtaining the peak confluence time difference of each upstream according to the time point of the peak flow of each predicted flow process line, superposing the peak flow to obtain the maximum predicted flow, converting the maximum predicted flow into the maximum predicted water level, and taking the time period of the peak confluence time difference as the height precaution time period.
It can be known from the above description that, because each upstream has its own peak flow value, and the time for each upstream peak flow to converge into the downstream is different, the convergence time difference of each upstream peak flow is calculated, the time period of the time difference is used as a height precaution time period, so as to ensure that the downstream can take precautionary measures in advance, and meanwhile, the peak flow values of each upstream are superimposed to obtain a maximum predicted flow, which is used as the maximum flow value that may flow into the downstream so as to make full preparation for the downstream, thereby avoiding the worst case that the flow flowing into the downstream may be the maximum predicted flow due to the fact that the time at which the peak flow exists at a certain time is the same time.
Further, the key feature measurement station is a hydrological feature measurement station arranged at the geographical positions of an upstream river section, a bend and a bifurcation.
According to the above description, the selected key characteristic measuring station is a geographical position in the upstream flow domain, which causes large water flow change, and can be representative, so that the accuracy of prediction of the subsequent water level process line is further ensured.
Referring to fig. 3, a terminal for predicting a downstream water level includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the following steps when executing the computer program:
s1, selecting a plurality of key feature testing stations for each upstream converged to the same downstream, and segmenting each upstream key feature testing station step by step according to the flow direction, wherein each segment corresponds to one key feature testing station;
s2, for each upstream, acquiring a water level process line of each two adjacent stages in a previous preset time period, converting the water level process line into a flow process line, predicting the flow process line of a stage positioned at a lower stage in the two adjacent stages in the next preset time period until the flow process lines of the last stage in a plurality of preset time periods are obtained, wherein the previous preset time period and the next preset time period are continuous time periods;
and S3, merging and superposing the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time periods of each upstream last-stage subsection, and converting the flow process lines back to the water level process line to obtain a downstream predicted water level process line.
As can be seen from the above description, the beneficial effects of the present invention are: based on the same technical concept, the method for predicting the downstream water level is matched, a terminal for predicting the downstream water level is provided, a plurality of key characteristic measuring stations are selected for converging each upstream of the same downstream, the downstream measuring stations are segmented step by step according to the flow direction, the water level process line of the segment positioned at the lower stage in each two adjacent stages is predicted at the later preset time interval according to the water level process line of the previous preset time interval of each two adjacent stages of segments, the water level process line is converted into a flow process line, the next preset time interval is repeatedly predicted through the previous preset time interval, finally, the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time intervals of the last stage of each upstream segment are obtained, then, the plurality of preset time intervals of each upstream are combined into the flow process line of a complete time interval, the flow process lines of the complete time intervals corresponding to all the upstream segments are superposed, and the superposed flow process line is converted into the water level process line, the downstream water level prediction process line after each upstream converges into the downstream is obtained, the concept of gradual prediction is integrally adopted, the high cost caused by the fact that detection hardware is laid for predicting the downstream water level in the prior art is reduced, meanwhile, the upstream drainage basin is used as the core, only a plurality of key characteristic measuring stations at the upstream need to be selected and the actual water level process line measured in the previous preset time period can have prediction capability, the influence of different geographic environments on calculation is reduced, the accuracy of the prediction result is improved, the calculation speed is high, the data volume is small, the complexity is low, and the quick response of the short-term prediction under the extreme condition can be met.
Further, the S2 specifically includes:
for each upstream, if the previous preset time interval is the current time interval, acquiring an actual water level process line of each two adjacent stages in the current time interval, converting the actual water level process line into an actual flow process line, and predicting the flow process line of the next preset time interval of the current time interval according to the change rule of the actual flow process line, wherein the previous preset time interval and the next preset time interval are continuous time intervals;
otherwise, predicting the flow process line of the segment positioned at the lower stage in the adjacent two-stage segments in the next preset time period according to the change rule of the flow process line of each adjacent two-stage segment in the previous preset time period until the flow process line of the last stage segment in a plurality of preset time periods is obtained.
It can be known from the above description that the actual water level process line measured by the key feature measurement station can be directly used for predicting the flow process line of the next preset time period, and the next preset time period of the next preset time period can be predicted again through the predicted flow process line, so that the predicted flow process line of each upstream in a plurality of continuous time periods can be obtained by gradually predicting one time period by one time period, that is, the flow process line of each upstream merging into the downstream in a longer time period is finally obtained, and when the time goes to the first preset time period predicted at that time, the flow process line of the next time and the flow process line of the later time can be adaptively adjusted by further adjusting the deviation between the predicted flow process line of the first preset time period obtained at that time and the actual time, that is, the downstream prediction can be quickly corrected according to the real-time change condition of the upstream, the accuracy of the predicted value is ensured.
Further, the S3 specifically includes the following steps:
s31, merging the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time intervals of each upstream section at the last stage to obtain a predicted flow process line of each upstream section to be merged into the downstream section;
and S32, multiplying each upstream predicted flow process line by an empirical prediction value, and then superposing to obtain a downstream predicted flow process line, converting the downstream predicted flow process line into a water level process line, and superposing an astronomical tide process line to obtain the downstream predicted water level process line, wherein the empirical prediction value is 100-120%.
It can be known from the above description that the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time periods obtained by each upstream prediction are merged into a flow process line of a complete time period, in order to enable the merged flow process line to have a more accurate predicted value, the merged flow process line is multiplied by the historical accumulated empirical data value of 100-120%, meanwhile, since the water flowing into the downstream comes from a plurality of upstream, the flow process lines of the complete time periods obtained by each upstream merging need to be overlapped, and finally the flow process lines are converted back to the water level process line, so as to obtain an accurate downstream water level predicted value.
Further, the step S3 is followed by the step of:
and S4, obtaining the peak confluence time difference of each upstream according to the time point of the peak flow of each predicted flow process line, superposing the peak flow to obtain the maximum predicted flow, converting the maximum predicted flow into the maximum predicted water level, and taking the time period of the peak confluence time difference as the height precaution time period.
It can be known from the above description that, because each upstream has its own peak flow value, and the time for each upstream peak flow to converge into the downstream is different, the convergence time difference of each upstream peak flow is calculated, the time period of the time difference is used as a height precaution time period, so as to ensure that the downstream can take precautionary measures in advance, and meanwhile, the peak flow values of each upstream are superimposed to obtain a maximum predicted flow, which is used as the maximum flow value that may flow into the downstream so as to make full preparation for the downstream, thereby avoiding the worst case that the flow flowing into the downstream may be the maximum predicted flow due to the fact that the time at which the peak flow exists at a certain time is the same time.
Further, the key feature measurement station is a hydrological feature measurement station arranged at the geographical positions of an upstream river section, a bend and a bifurcation.
According to the above description, the selected key characteristic measuring station is a geographical position in the upstream flow domain, which causes large water flow change, and can be representative, so that the accuracy of prediction of the subsequent water level process line is further ensured.
Referring to fig. 1, a first embodiment of the present invention is:
a method of predicting a downstream water level, comprising the steps of:
s1, selecting a plurality of key feature testing stations for each upstream converged to the same downstream, and gradually segmenting each upstream key feature testing station according to the flow direction, wherein each segment corresponds to one key feature testing station;
in this embodiment, the key feature measurement station is specifically a hydrological feature measurement station set at the geographical positions of the upstream river section, the curve and the bifurcation. Namely, the selected key characteristic measuring station is a geographical position in an upstream flow domain, which can cause large water flow change, and can be representative, so that the accuracy of prediction of a subsequent water level process line is further ensured.
And S2, for each upstream, acquiring a water level process line of each two adjacent stages in the previous preset time period, converting the water level process line into a flow process line, predicting the flow process line of the stage positioned at the lower stage in the two adjacent stages in the next preset time period until the flow process lines of the last stage in a plurality of preset time periods are obtained, wherein the previous preset time period and the next preset time period are continuous time periods.
And S3, merging and superposing the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time periods of each upstream last-stage subsection, and converting the flow process lines back to the water level process line to obtain a downstream predicted water level process line.
In the embodiment, the concept of gradual prediction is integrally adopted, so that the cost caused by the fact that detection hardware is laid for predicting the downstream water level in the prior art is reduced, the upstream drainage basin is used as a core, the prediction and prediction capability can be achieved only by selecting a plurality of key characteristic measuring stations at the upstream and acquiring the actual water level process line measured in the previous preset time period, the influence of different geographic environments on calculation is reduced, the accuracy of a prediction result is improved, the calculation speed is high, the data volume is small, the complexity is low, and the quick response of the short-term prediction under extreme conditions can be met.
Referring to fig. 2, the second embodiment of the present invention is:
based on the first embodiment, in this embodiment, the step S2 specifically includes:
for each upstream, if the previous preset time interval is the current time interval, acquiring an actual water level process line of each two adjacent stages in the current time interval, converting the actual water level process line into an actual flow process line, predicting the flow process line of the next preset time interval of the current time interval according to the change rule of the actual flow process line, wherein the previous preset time interval and the next preset time interval are continuous time intervals;
otherwise, predicting the flow process line of the segment positioned at the lower stage in the adjacent two-stage segments in the next preset time period according to the change rule of the flow process line of each adjacent two-stage segment in the previous preset time period until the flow process lines of the last stage segment in a plurality of preset time periods are obtained.
That is, in the present embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, for the downstream in the present embodiment, two upstream are included: the method comprises an upstream A and an upstream B, wherein the upstream A is divided into two stages, namely a first stage and a second stage, the first stage corresponds to a key feature station A1, the second stage corresponds to a key feature station A2, and the upstream B is divided into two stages similarly, and corresponds to two key feature stations B1 and B2. For the upstream A, the actual water level process lines of the key feature stations A1 and A2 in the current time period (assuming that the time at this time is 3 o ' clock, the current time period can be set to be 2 o ' clock to 3 o ' clock) can be obtained first, the actual water level process lines are converted into actual flow process lines, then the flow process lines of A2 from 3 o ' clock to 4 o ' clock are predicted through the two actual flow process lines, while the flow process line of a1 from point 3 to point 4 may pass through the last period of the current period measured by a1 itself, i.e., the actual flow path line from 1 point to 2 points, is predicted, and then the flow path lines of a1 and a2 from 4 points to 5 points are predicted next by the predicted flow path lines of a1 and a2 from 3 points to 4 points, so that for the last stage segment of the upstream a, namely, the key characteristic measuring station A2 can obtain the flow process line of A2 in a continuous multiple time intervals in a mode of continuous time interval-by-time interval prediction, namely the flow process line of the upstream A which flows into the downstream is obtained; when the time continues to reach 4 points, the actual flow process line actually measured between the 3 points and the 4 points according to A1 or A2 can be compared with the predicted flow process lines between the 3 points and the 4 points of A1 and A2, which are obtained through prediction, so that the predicted flow process line from the 4 points to the 5 points can be adaptively adjusted, namely, the downstream prediction can be quickly corrected according to the upstream real-time water level change condition, and the accuracy of the predicted value is ensured. Similarly, the upstream B also obtains the predicted flow process line finally merging from the upstream B to the downstream in the prediction step as described above.
In this embodiment, step S3 specifically includes the following steps:
s31, merging the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time intervals of each upstream section at the last stage to obtain a predicted flow process line of each upstream section to be merged into the downstream section;
and S32, multiplying each upstream predicted flow process line by an empirical prediction value, and then superposing to obtain a downstream predicted flow process line, converting the downstream predicted flow process line into a water level process line, and superposing astronomical tide process lines to obtain a downstream predicted water level process line, wherein the empirical prediction value is 100-120%.
That is, in the present embodiment, as shown in fig. 2, the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time periods predicted by the upstream a and the upstream B in the last segment, i.e., a2 and B2, are respectively merged into a flow process line of a complete time period, in order to make the merged flow process line have a more accurate predicted value, the merged flow process line is multiplied by the historically accumulated empirical data value of 100 to 120%, then the two flow process lines multiplied by the empirical predicted value are superimposed, and finally the two flow process lines are converted back to the water level process line.
In this embodiment, assuming that there is only one upstream a at the upstream merging into the downstream, as shown in fig. 2, if the predicted flow at a certain time t is calculated by the predicted flow process line at the downstream merging into the downstream merging in step S31, the predicted flow at the downstream merging into the critical feature measurement station a2 is Q ', then a2 is a final flow Q at the time t is Q' × 110%, where 110% is an empirical prediction value obtained by historical accumulation and artificial experience according to conversion from the historical water level process line at the upstream a into a deviation value obtained by the flow process line and an actually measured flow process line, and in other equivalent embodiments, the value may be controlled within 100-120%, or may be determined according to an actual deviation between the actual upstream geographic condition and the historical water level and flow data at the critical feature measurement station.
In addition, in this embodiment, the selected downstream is a lake near the sea, whose water level is influenced not only by the water current converged in from the upstream but also by the tidal change in nature, and meanwhile, in the lake selected in this embodiment, the influence of another artificial experience prediction value is also involved, that is, assuming that there is only one upstream a converged in the upstream of the lake, setting the predicted water level obtained by calculating the time t corresponding to the water level process line into which the predicted flow process line of the upstream a is converted to be Z ', when every thousand directions of flow are converged in the lake by artificial experience, if Z ' is greater than or equal to 7 meters, then a water level value of 0.35 cm is added to each thousand directions of flow on the basis of Z ', and finally the final predicted water level Z is obtained by combining the tidal change; if Z' is less than 7 meters, adding a water level value of 0.40 cm to each thousand square of flow, and finally combining the change of tide to obtain the final predicted water level Z. Wherein, the preset values of 0.35 cm, 0.40 cm and 7 m are artificial experience predicted values obtained by historical deviation changes of the actual water level and the flow of the lake, and therefore, the final predicted water level Z at the time t can be represented as:
Z＝Z’+Q×0.35/1000+C，Z’≥7
Z＝Z’+Q×0.40/1000+C，Z’＜7
wherein, C is the predicted tide level at time t calculated by adopting the astronomical tide process line.
In other equivalent embodiments, the artificial experience prediction value according with the actual downstream situation can be obtained according to the actual downstream situation and the deviation change of the historical water level and flow data, and the accuracy of the downstream water level prediction can be further ensured.
In this embodiment, after step S3, the method further includes the steps of:
and S4, obtaining the peak confluence time difference of each upstream according to the time point of the peak flow of each predicted flow process line, superposing the peak flow to obtain the maximum predicted flow, converting the maximum predicted flow into the maximum predicted water level, and taking the time period of the peak confluence time difference as the height precaution time period.
That is, in this embodiment, since each upstream has its own peak flow value, and the time for each upstream peak flow to converge into the downstream is different, the convergence time difference of each upstream peak flow is calculated, the time period of the time difference is used as a height precaution time period, so as to ensure that the downstream can take precautionary measures in advance, and meanwhile, the peak flow values of each upstream are superimposed to obtain a maximum predicted flow, which is used as the maximum flow value that may flow into the downstream so as to make sufficient preparation for the downstream, thereby avoiding the worst case that the peak flow may flow at a certain time is the same time, so that the flow flowing into the downstream is the maximum predicted flow.
Referring to fig. 2, a third embodiment of the present invention is:
a terminal 1 for predicting a downstream water level, comprising a memory 2, a processor 3 and a computer program stored on the memory 2 and executable on the processor 3, when executing the computer program, implementing the steps of a method for predicting a downstream water level as in the first or second embodiment.
In summary, the method and terminal for predicting downstream water level provided by the present invention select a plurality of key feature stations for each upstream converging to the same downstream, and perform stage-by-stage segmentation according to the flow direction, predict the water level process line of the next preset time period of the segment located at the lower stage in each adjacent two-stage segmentation according to the water level process line of the previous preset time period of each adjacent two-stage segmentation, and convert the water level process line into a flow process line, so as to repeat the prediction of the next preset time period through the previous preset time period, finally obtain the flow process lines of the plurality of preset time periods of the last stage of each upstream segmentation, then merge the plurality of preset time periods of each upstream into a flow process line of a complete time period, superimpose the flow process lines of the complete time periods corresponding to all the upstream, and convert the superimposed flow process line into a water level process line, the downstream predicted water level process line after each upstream afflux downstream is obtained, and the method has the following beneficial effects:
1. the laying of the existing monitoring hardware equipment is reduced, and the forecasting and predicting capability can be realized only by selecting a key characteristic measuring station, so that the economic cost is reduced;
2. the upstream basin is taken as a core, the key characteristic stations are segmented step by step, the idea of predicting step by step, namely time period by time period is integrally adopted, the influence of different geographic environments on calculation is reduced, the requirement of adjusting the predicted flow process line in real time can be met, the downstream prediction is quickly corrected according to the upstream real-time water level change condition, meanwhile, the predicted flow process line is further adjusted by combining the experience predicted value accumulated by history, and the accuracy of the prediction result is improved;
3. the method has the advantages of high calculation speed, small data volume and low complexity, and can meet the quick response of short-term forecasting under extreme conditions.
The above description is only an embodiment of the present invention, and not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and all equivalent changes made by using the contents of the present specification and the drawings, or applied directly or indirectly to the related technical fields, are included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method of predicting a downstream water level, comprising the steps of:
s1, selecting a plurality of key feature testing stations for each upstream converged to the same downstream, and segmenting each upstream key feature testing station step by step according to the flow direction, wherein each segment corresponds to one key feature testing station;
s2, for each upstream, acquiring a water level process line of each two adjacent stages in a previous preset time period, converting the water level process line into a flow process line, predicting the flow process line of a stage positioned at a lower stage in the two adjacent stages in the next preset time period until the flow process lines of the last stage in a plurality of preset time periods are obtained, wherein the previous preset time period and the next preset time period are continuous time periods;
and S3, merging and superposing the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time periods of each upstream last-stage subsection, and converting the flow process lines back to the water level process line to obtain a downstream predicted water level process line.
2. The method for predicting the downstream water level as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S2 is specifically as follows:
for each upstream, if the previous preset time interval is the current time interval, acquiring an actual water level process line of each two adjacent stages in the current time interval, converting the actual water level process line into an actual flow process line, and predicting the flow process line of the next preset time interval of the current time interval according to the change rule of the actual flow process line, wherein the previous preset time interval and the next preset time interval are continuous time intervals;
otherwise, predicting the flow process line of the segment positioned at the lower stage in the adjacent two-stage segments in the next preset time period according to the change rule of the flow process line of each adjacent two-stage segment in the previous preset time period until the flow process line of the last stage segment in a plurality of preset time periods is obtained.
3. The method for predicting the downstream water level as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S3 specifically comprises the steps of:
s31, merging the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time intervals of each upstream section at the last stage to obtain a predicted flow process line of each upstream section to be merged into the downstream section;
and S32, multiplying each upstream predicted flow process line by an empirical prediction value, and then superposing to obtain a downstream predicted flow process line, converting the downstream predicted flow process line into a water level process line, and superposing an astronomical tide process line to obtain the downstream predicted water level process line, wherein the empirical prediction value is 100-120%.
4. The method for predicting the downstream water level as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step of S3 is followed by the further steps of:
and S4, obtaining the peak confluence time difference of each upstream according to the time point of the peak flow of each predicted flow process line, superposing the peak flow to obtain the maximum predicted flow, converting the maximum predicted flow into the maximum predicted water level, and taking the time period of the peak confluence time difference as the height precaution time period.
5. The method of predicting downstream water levels of claim 1, wherein the key feature stations are in particular hydrological feature stations located at upstream channel sections, curves and bifurcations.
6. A terminal for predicting a downstream water level, comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor when executing the computer program implementing the steps of:
s1, selecting a plurality of key feature testing stations for each upstream converged to the same downstream, and segmenting each upstream key feature testing station step by step according to the flow direction, wherein each segment corresponds to one key feature testing station;
s2, for each upstream, acquiring a water level process line of each two adjacent stages in a previous preset time period, converting the water level process line into a flow process line, predicting the flow process line of a stage positioned at a lower stage in the two adjacent stages in the next preset time period until the flow process lines of the last stage in a plurality of preset time periods are obtained, wherein the previous preset time period and the next preset time period are continuous time periods;
and S3, merging and superposing the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time periods of each upstream last-stage subsection, and converting the flow process lines back to the water level process line to obtain a downstream predicted water level process line.
7. The terminal for predicting the downstream water level according to claim 6, wherein the S2 is specifically:
for each upstream, if the previous preset time interval is the current time interval, acquiring an actual water level process line of each two adjacent stages in the current time interval, converting the actual water level process line into an actual flow process line, and predicting the flow process line of the next preset time interval of the current time interval according to the change rule of the actual flow process line, wherein the previous preset time interval and the next preset time interval are continuous time intervals;
otherwise, predicting the flow process line of the segment positioned at the lower stage in the adjacent two-stage segments in the next preset time period according to the change rule of the flow process line of each adjacent two-stage segment in the previous preset time period until the flow process line of the last stage segment in a plurality of preset time periods is obtained.
8. The terminal for predicting the downstream water level as claimed in claim 6, wherein the S3 comprises the following steps:
s31, merging the flow process lines of a plurality of preset time intervals of each upstream section at the last stage to obtain a predicted flow process line of each upstream section to be merged into the downstream section;
and S32, multiplying each upstream predicted flow process line by an empirical prediction value, and then superposing to obtain a downstream predicted flow process line, converting the downstream predicted flow process line into a water level process line, and superposing an astronomical tide process line to obtain the downstream predicted water level process line, wherein the empirical prediction value is 100-120%.
9. The terminal for predicting the downstream water level of claim 6, further comprising, after the step of S3:
and S4, obtaining the peak confluence time difference of each upstream according to the time point of the peak flow of each predicted flow process line, superposing the peak flow to obtain the maximum predicted flow, converting the maximum predicted flow into the maximum predicted water level, and taking the time period of the peak confluence time difference as the height precaution time period.
10. The terminal for predicting the downstream water level of claim 6, wherein the key feature stations are in particular hydrological feature stations arranged at geographical positions of upstream river sections, curves and bifurcations.
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