CN113806972A - Comprehensive energy system reliability analysis method considering supply and demand bilateral flexibility - Google Patents

Comprehensive energy system reliability analysis method considering supply and demand bilateral flexibility Download PDF

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CN113806972A
CN113806972A CN202110890384.9A CN202110890384A CN113806972A CN 113806972 A CN113806972 A CN 113806972A CN 202110890384 A CN202110890384 A CN 202110890384A CN 113806972 A CN113806972 A CN 113806972A
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唐学用
丁一
叶承晋
雷金勇
陈晓刚
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State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive energy system reliability analysis method considering supply and demand bilateral flexibility, which comprises the following steps: establishing a flexibility model of a comprehensive energy user based on a physical model of the equipment and an energy substitution effect; establishing a tidal current dynamic characteristic model of the natural gas system based on a continuity and momentum characteristic equation and a linearization technology; establishing an operation reliability model of system elements according to a Markov process on a discrete time domain, and generating a forward-looking comprehensive energy system emergency state cooperative management technology; and evaluating the operation reliability of the operation reliability model solving process by a time sequence Monte Carlo method. The invention can provide decision help for the day-ahead unit combination, equipment switching, operation scheme making and emergency fault management of the system; the reliability of the comprehensive energy system in the operation period can be reflected more accurately in real time; by utilizing the flexibility of the comprehensive energy user, the method can effectively ensure the reliable energy utilization of the user.

Description

Comprehensive energy system reliability analysis method considering supply and demand bilateral flexibility
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of comprehensive energy system reliability analysis, in particular to a comprehensive energy system reliability analysis method considering supply and demand bilateral flexibility.
Background
In the face of challenges of global climate change, environmental risk, energy resource constraint and the like, different energy forms such as electric power, natural gas, heating power and the like are cooperatively utilized, so that the energy utilization efficiency is improved, and one of effective ways for realizing blueprints of carbon neutralization and carbon peak arrival is boosted early, and under the background, the concept of a comprehensive energy system is developed vigorously. According to different covered regional scales, the comprehensive energy system can be divided into two forms, and on a transmission side, an electric power system and a natural gas system are coupled through a gas turbine set to form an electric power and natural gas combined system; on the demand side, the comprehensive energy user comprehensively utilizes the electric power and the natural gas from the transmission side through equipment such as a cogeneration unit, an electric heat pump and the like to meet the terminal demands of electricity, cold and heat of the comprehensive energy user.
Nevertheless, the interdependence and interdependence of the various forms of energy also presents challenges to the reliable operation of integrated energy systems. For example, in 2017, 8, 15 th of month, taiwan, the natural gas supply of a big pool power plant is cut off due to personnel misoperation, so that the shortage of 4GW power supply is further caused, and huge loss is caused to the life and property safety of people; 13 days 2 month to 17 days 2 month in 2021, dezhou, extremely cold weather in usa causes the power load cutting of maximum 20GW and large-area heat supply interruption, and affects users by more than 480 ten thousand; one of the very important reasons is that the natural gas wellhead freezes due to the low temperature, thereby affecting the natural gas supply.
Reliability assessment techniques for conventional power systems have been developed over the past few decades, but reliability analysis when coupled with other energy systems is involved, still in the launch phase. It mainly appears in the following aspects: unlike a traditional power system, a power flow model of natural gas on a transmission side is described by a partial differential equation system on an operation time scale, so that unlike the transient response of the traditional power system, the time constant of the energy power flow of the natural gas in the transmission distribution process is large, and when the system state is suddenly changed, such as an element failure, the transient process of the power flow in an operation period is not negligible; the access of multiple energy forms brings great flexibility to the demand side, and in a single power system, the demand of the power load can only be met through power; for example, the demand for heating can be achieved by consuming electricity by an electric heating air conditioner or heat pump, or by a district heating system, i.e. by consuming natural gas by an electric heat cogeneration unit. Therefore, the complementary substitution effect of the energy sources brings great flexible strategy optimization space for the demand side whether in normal operation, demand response or emergency operation, but also brings uncertainty for the cooperation and reliable operation of the comprehensive energy transmission system.
Disclosure of Invention
This section is for the purpose of summarizing some aspects of embodiments of the invention and to briefly introduce some preferred embodiments. In this section, as well as in the abstract and the title of the invention of this application, simplifications or omissions may be made to avoid obscuring the purpose of the section, the abstract and the title, and such simplifications or omissions are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
The present invention has been made in view of the above-mentioned conventional problems.
Therefore, the technical problem solved by the invention is as follows: the complementary substitution effect of energy in the traditional technical scheme brings huge and flexible strategy optimization space for the demand side no matter in normal operation, demand response or emergency operation, but also brings uncertainty for the cooperation and reliable operation of the comprehensive energy transmission system.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention provides the following technical scheme: establishing a flexibility model of a comprehensive energy user based on a physical model of the equipment and an energy substitution effect; establishing a tidal current dynamic characteristic model of the natural gas system based on a continuity and momentum characteristic equation and a linearization technology; establishing an operation reliability model of system elements according to the flexibility model of the comprehensive energy user, the flow dynamic characteristic model of the natural gas system and the Markov process in a discrete time domain, and generating a forward-looking comprehensive energy system emergency state cooperative management technology; and evaluating the operational reliability of the operational reliability model solving process by a time sequence Monte Carlo method.
As a preferable scheme of the method for analyzing the reliability of the integrated energy system considering the flexibility of both supply and demand sides, the method comprises the following steps: the comprehensive energy system comprises a transmission side and a demand side, wherein the transmission side is an electric power and natural gas combined system, and the demand side is a comprehensive energy user.
As a preferable scheme of the method for analyzing the reliability of the integrated energy system considering the flexibility of both supply and demand sides, the method comprises the following steps: the flexibility of the integrated energy user is determined by the feasible domain in which it operates, with constraints including,
H[ei gi xst]T＝[del-lcel dht-lcht dcl-lccl 01×8]T
Figure BDA0003195672310000031
h1h+h14≥0
Figure BDA0003195672310000032
Figure BDA0003195672310000033
Figure BDA0003195672310000034
Figure BDA0003195672310000035
Figure BDA0003195672310000036
xst≥0
0≤[lcel lcht lccl]≤[lcel+ lcht+ lccl+]
wherein, H [ ei gi xst]TThe formula is the energy conversion constraint of the integrated energy user, H is the energy conversion matrix, ei and gi are the power and natural gas consumption of the EH, xst＝[gg1,gg2,eee,ee3,e1e,e13,h1h,h14,h2h,h24,c3c,h3h,c4c]Is the state variable of EH, gg1Consumption of natural gas power for cogeneration units, gg2Power of natural gas consumption for gas turbine units, eeeSupplying the power of the electrical load directly to the combined electrical and natural gas system, ee3Electric power directly supplied to electric heat pump for electric natural gas combined system, e1eElectric power supplied to the electric heat pump for the cogeneration unit, e13Supplying the cogeneration unit with electric power of the electric heat pump, h1hSupplying thermal loads to cogeneration unitsThermal power of h14Supplying the cogeneration unit with the thermal power of the absorption chiller h2hSupplying the gas boiler with thermal power of the thermal load, h24Supplying the gas boiler with thermal power of the absorption chiller, c3cSupply of cold power of cold load to electric heat pump, h3hSupplying the heat pump with heat-loaded thermal power, c4cFor supplying the absorption refrigerator with the cold power of the cold load, del、dhtAnd dclThe electric, thermal and cold load requirements of EH, respectively, el, ht and cl represent three energy types of electric, thermal and cold, respectively, lc and lc+Respectively representing the load reduction of each energy type and the upper limit thereof, gamma is the operation mode of the electric heat pump, gamma-1 represents the work heating mode, gamma-0 represents the cooling mode,
Figure BDA0003195672310000041
is the energy efficiency coefficient of the electric heating pump for heating,
Figure BDA0003195672310000042
coefficient of energy efficiency, COP, for electric heat pump refrigeration4In order to absorb the energy efficiency coefficient of the refrigerator,
Figure BDA0003195672310000043
in order to achieve the power generation efficiency of the cogeneration unit,
Figure BDA0003195672310000044
for the heat production efficiency, eta, of cogeneration units2For the efficiency of a gas boiler, formula h1h+h14≥0、
Figure BDA0003195672310000045
Figure BDA0003195672310000046
Form the operation domain of the electric heat cogeneration unit, wherein (E)A,HA)、(EB,HB)、(HC,EC) And (H)D,ED) The four combinations of heat production power and power generation power respectively form the operation of the electric heat cogeneration unitThe four poles of the feasible region are,
Figure BDA00031956723100000410
and
Figure BDA00031956723100000411
respectively the heat production or refrigeration capacity of the gas boiler, the electric heat pump and the absorption refrigerator,
Figure BDA00031956723100000412
and
Figure BDA00031956723100000413
the minimum heat production or cooling power of these devices, respectively.
As a preferable scheme of the method for analyzing the reliability of the integrated energy system considering the flexibility of both supply and demand sides, the method comprises the following steps: the establishing of the flow dynamic characteristic model of the natural gas system comprises the following steps of modeling the dynamic characteristic of the natural gas flow in a single natural gas pipeline: the natural gas flow is defined in a horizontal natural gas pipeline, the compressibility of the natural gas is constant, and no heat exchange is carried out with the outside, and the continuity and the momentum characteristic of the natural gas flow are described by the following partial differential equation system:
Figure BDA0003195672310000047
Figure BDA0003195672310000048
wherein p and q are respectively the gas pressure and flow along the natural gas pipeline as a function of time t and distance x, B is the isothermal wave velocity of the gas, calculated by the gas equation of state, ρ0The natural gas density under standard conditions, D is the diameter of a natural gas pipeline, A is the cross section area of the pipeline, and F is the Vannin transmission coefficient;
formula (II)
Figure BDA0003195672310000049
Taylor expansion is further performed near the steady state operating point:
Figure BDA0003195672310000051
wherein p is*、q*A reference point for Taylor expansion of a function of the gas pressure and the power flow of the natural gas, wherein Δ p is p (x, t) -p (x,0), and Δ q is q (x, t) -q (x,0) is increment of the function of the gas pressure and the power flow of the natural gas on the basis of an original steady state solution;
by the finite difference method, the above equation can be further developed as:
Figure BDA0003195672310000052
where k is the ordinal number of the discrete time step, Δ x is the step of the spatial dimension,
Figure BDA0003195672310000053
and
Figure BDA0003195672310000054
respectively referring to the reference points of the tidal current and the air pressure of the natural gas on the pipeline segment m, wherein the selection of the reference point expanded by taylor influences the precision of the calculation result, and then the initial states p (x,0) and q (x,0) of the steady state at the moment when the transient process starts, i.e. t is 0, are selected as the reference points;
general formula
Figure BDA0003195672310000055
Discretization is as follows:
ΔxA(pm+1,k+1+pm,k+1-pm+1,k-pm,k)+Δtρ0B2(qm+1,k+1-qm,k+1+qm+1,k-qm,k)＝0
wherein, Δ t is the step length of the time dimension;
in addition, the node pressure needs to be maintained within a certain range during the demand response:
Figure BDA0003195672310000056
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003195672310000057
and
Figure BDA0003195672310000058
respectively the upper limit and the lower limit of the air pressure of the node i;
after establishing the dynamic equations for all the pipes, the initial conditions are determined according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003195672310000059
Figure BDA00031956723100000510
the boundary condition is determined according to the following formula:
Figure BDA00031956723100000511
Figure BDA00031956723100000512
Figure BDA0003195672310000061
wherein L isijFor the length of the pipe ij,
Figure BDA0003195672310000062
and
Figure BDA0003195672310000063
derived from combined steady-state power flow of electric power and natural gasThe pressure of the node i and the natural gas flow rate of the pipeline ij, sgn (x) is a sign function, when x is larger than or equal to 0, sgn (x) is 1, when x is smaller than 0, sgn (x) is 1, CijFor the characteristic parameters of the pipeline in the Weymouth natural gas flow equation,
Figure BDA0003195672310000064
set of natural gas lines to which node i is connected, wiGas production rate of natural gas source of node i, gdiIn order to be the load of the natural gas,
Figure BDA0003195672310000065
is the set of gas turbine groups of node i,
Figure BDA0003195672310000066
generated power, xi, of gas turbine group j as node ii,jFor its efficiency, E is the number of EH, EiSet of EHs, gi, for node ieNatural gas consumption as EH;
for the power system, the power system is coupled with the natural gas system through a gas turbine set and an integrated energy user, so that the model of the operation period is as follows:
Figure BDA0003195672310000067
fij＝(θi-θj)/Xij
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003195672310000068
is the collection of non-gas turbine groups on node i,
Figure BDA0003195672310000069
power generation for non-gas turbine units, ediTo the electrical load, eieIs the power consumption of EH, fijFor power flow on line ij, θiIs the phase angle of voltage, XijIs reactive.
Taking into account the flexibility of both supply and demand as described in the present inventionAn optimized scheme of the method for analyzing the reliability of the comprehensive energy system, wherein: the establishing of the operation reliability model of the system element comprises, in order to match with a basic scheduling period of the system, regarding a state transition process of the element as a discrete-time markov process, wherein a basic time step of a system state duration is a scheduling period Δ d, in a next scheduling period d +1, according to whether the state of the element is transitioned or not and the state after transition is different, the system may enter different states, and it is defined that only one element can undergo state transition at the same time, and then, in the next scheduling period, the probability that the system is in each state is calculated by the following formula: still remaining in the original state, i.e. without the probability Pr of a state transition of an element during the d +1 period0Can be calculated as:
Figure BDA00031956723100000610
wherein NC is the serial number of the system component, NC is the total number of the system component,
Figure BDA0003195672310000071
for element nc in state hncIs calculated from a partial differential equation describing the state transition of the system, hncFor the state of element nc in the scheduling period d, dncFor the first time element nc is in state hncThe sequence number of the scheduling period of (1); a state transition occurs, element nc from state hncIs transferred to hncThe probability of' is:
Figure BDA0003195672310000072
and continuously repeating the state generation process to obtain the state sequence of the elements in the operation period, so that the state sequence of the system is formed by combination.
As a preferable scheme of the method for analyzing the reliability of the integrated energy system considering the flexibility of both supply and demand sides, the method comprises the following steps: said "look ahead"the goal of the integrated energy system emergency collaborative management technique is to minimize the total cost of operation C over a given time domainT：
Figure BDA0003195672310000073
Wherein EB and GB are respectively the set of power nodes and natural gas nodes,
Figure BDA0003195672310000074
and CIEGSThe self-scheduling cost of the comprehensive energy user e and the operation cost of the electric power and natural gas combined system are calculated in the following mode:
Figure BDA0003195672310000075
Figure BDA0003195672310000076
wherein K is a set of time steps in a time domain involved in the emergency cooperative management, CDFeAnd CDFgUser loss function, cst, for the electrical and natural gas load, respectivelyi,jIs the generating cost function, gp, of the non-gas turbine set j on the node ii,kFor the natural gas purchase price of the gas source on the node i at the time step k,
Figure BDA0003195672310000077
and
Figure BDA0003195672310000078
respectively the climbing cost coefficients of the non-gas turbine set/gas turbine set j on the node i,
Figure BDA0003195672310000079
is the climbing cost coefficient of the natural gas source on the node i.
Double-sided flexibility of supply and demand considerations as described in the present inventionA preferred embodiment of the method for analyzing the reliability of a sexual integrated energy system, wherein: the state variables of the operation reliability model comprise the state variables of the power and natural gas combined system and the state variables of the comprehensive energy users; the state variables of the power and natural gas combined system comprise at each time step k: natural gas pressure p on each pipeline segment mm,kAnd natural gas flow qm,k(ii) a Output w of natural gas source on natural gas node ii,k(ii) a Load shedding ec on natural gas and power nodes ii,kAnd gci,k(ii) a Generating power of gas turbine set and non-gas turbine set j on power node i
Figure BDA0003195672310000081
And
Figure BDA0003195672310000082
phase angle θ of voltage at power node ii,k(ii) a The state variables of the integrated energy users comprise the following state variables of each user e in each time step k: electric power consumption eie,kAnd natural gas consumption gie,k(ii) a Reduction lc for electric, cold and heat loadlL belongs to { el, cl, ht }; state variables of the remaining devices of the EH.
As a preferable scheme of the method for analyzing the reliability of the integrated energy system considering the flexibility of both supply and demand sides, the method comprises the following steps: constraints of the operational reliability model on all time steps k include power system flow constraints:
Figure BDA0003195672310000083
fij＝(θi-θj)/Xij
Figure BDA0003195672310000084
natural gas dynamic flow and boundary condition constraints; element upper and lower limit constraints:
Figure BDA0003195672310000085
Figure BDA0003195672310000086
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003195672310000087
and Wi hRespectively the power generation capacity and the gas production capacity of the non-gas turbine set, the gas turbine set and the gas source when the scheduling time interval is in a state h; terminal conditions:
pi,j,m,NK≥(1-γ)pi,j,m,0
wherein p isi,j,m,0Representing the air pressure of the natural gas pipeline ij at the pipeline section m in the normal operation state at the time when t is 0, NK is the time step number of the management time domain of the time emergency state, and γ is a relative value of an allowable fluctuation range of the air pressure; and (4) self-scheduling operation constraint at the user side of the comprehensive energy.
As a preferable scheme of the method for analyzing the reliability of the integrated energy system considering the flexibility of both supply and demand sides, the method comprises the following steps: the operation reliability evaluation of the operation reliability model solving process through a time sequence Monte Carlo method comprises the steps of calculating operation reliability parameters according to results after each iteration is finished, wherein the operation reliability parameters comprise expected values EDNS of power supply shortage on the node iiProbability of power supply shortage LOLPiExpected value EENS for insufficient power supplyiNatural gas starvation expected value EGNSiNatural gas starvation probability LOGPiAnd natural gas supply shortage expected value EVNSiAnd calculating to obtain the operation reliability parameter by adopting the following formula:
Figure BDA0003195672310000091
Figure BDA0003195672310000092
Figure BDA0003195672310000093
Figure BDA0003195672310000094
Figure BDA0003195672310000095
Figure BDA0003195672310000096
wherein, N is the sampling times of the time sequence Monte Carlo method, and flag (x) is defined as: flag (x) 1 when x > 0, and flag (x) 0 when x ≦ 0;
the convergence criterion of the time sequence Monte Carlo method is the relative standard deviation of EVNS:
Figure BDA0003195672310000097
wherein Var (x) is the variance of x; if the formula is satisfied, the operation reliability parameters are considered to be converged, and four operation reliability parameters are output.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: according to the method, the operation reliability of the comprehensive energy system is judged, so that weak links and weak time periods in operation of the system can be determined, and decision help is provided for the day-ahead unit combination, equipment switching, operation scheme making and emergency fault management of the system; on one hand, the reliability evaluation method can reflect the reliability of the comprehensive energy system in the operation period more accurately in real time due to the consideration of the dynamic characteristic of natural gas transmission; on the other hand, the method can effectively ensure the reliable energy utilization of the user by utilizing the flexibility of the comprehensive energy user.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on these drawings without inventive exercise. Wherein:
fig. 1 is a schematic basic flowchart of a method for analyzing reliability of an integrated energy system considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of an integrated energy system according to an embodiment of the present invention, which is a method for analyzing reliability of an integrated energy system considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of an integrated energy consumer of an integrated energy system reliability analysis method considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the aforementioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention comprehensible, specific embodiments accompanied with figures are described in detail below, and it is apparent that the described embodiments are a part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without making creative efforts based on the embodiments of the present invention, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
In the following description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, but the present invention may be practiced in other ways than those specifically described and will be readily apparent to those of ordinary skill in the art without departing from the spirit of the present invention, and therefore the present invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.
Furthermore, reference herein to "one embodiment" or "an embodiment" means that a particular feature, structure, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment is included in at least one implementation of the invention. The appearances of the phrase "in one embodiment" in various places in the specification are not necessarily all referring to the same embodiment, nor are separate or alternative embodiments mutually exclusive of other embodiments.
The present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings, wherein the cross-sectional views illustrating the structure of the device are not enlarged partially in general scale for convenience of illustration, and the drawings are only exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. In addition, the three-dimensional dimensions of length, width and depth should be included in the actual fabrication.
Meanwhile, in the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the terms "upper, lower, inner and outer" and the like indicate orientations or positional relationships based on the orientations or positional relationships shown in the drawings, and are only for convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, but do not indicate or imply that the referred device or element must have a specific orientation, be constructed in a specific orientation and operate, and thus, cannot be construed as limiting the present invention. Furthermore, the terms first, second, or third are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance.
The terms "mounted, connected and connected" in the present invention are to be understood broadly, unless otherwise explicitly specified or limited, for example: can be fixedly connected, detachably connected or integrally connected; they may be mechanically, electrically, or directly connected, or indirectly connected through intervening media, or may be interconnected between two elements. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood in specific cases to those skilled in the art.
Example 1
Referring to fig. 1 to 3, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for analyzing reliability of an integrated energy system considering flexibility of both supply and demand sides, including:
the comprehensive energy system comprises a transmission side and a demand side, wherein the transmission side is an electric power and natural gas combined system, and the demand side is a comprehensive energy user.
The topological structure of the power and natural gas combined system is formed by connecting a plurality of nodes through a plurality of edges, wherein the nodes comprise three types of power nodes, natural gas nodes and coupling nodes, and the edges comprise two types of power lines and natural gas pipelines; the natural gas nodes or the natural gas nodes and the coupling nodes are connected or not connected through natural gas pipelines; the node is provided with equipment and loads, the equipment comprises a non-natural gas unit, a natural gas unit and a natural gas source, the non-natural gas unit is positioned on the power node/coupling node, the natural gas unit only exists and exists on the coupling node, and the gas source is positioned on the natural gas node/coupling node; the load comprises a power load and a natural gas load, the power load is positioned on a power node/coupling node, and the natural gas load is positioned on a natural gas node/coupling node;
the comprehensive energy user is positioned on the coupling node, consumes the electric power and the natural gas from the electric power and natural gas transmission system and is also regarded as the electric power and natural gas load of the electric power and natural gas combined system, the comprehensive energy user comprises a plurality of devices, including a cogeneration unit, a gas boiler, an electric heat pump and an absorption refrigerator, and the devices convert the electric power and the natural gas obtained by the comprehensive energy user in the electric power and natural gas combined system into energy forms of electricity, cold and heat to meet the terminal load requirement of the comprehensive energy user, wherein the cogeneration unit consumes the natural gas to generate heat and electricity, the gas boiler consumes the natural gas to generate heat, the electric heat pump consumes the electricity to generate heat or cold, and the absorption refrigerator consumes the heat to generate cold.
S1: establishing a flexibility model of a comprehensive energy user based on a physical model of the equipment and an energy substitution effect; it should be noted that:
the flexibility of an integrated energy user is determined by the feasible domain in which it operates, which satisfies the following constraints:
Figure BDA0003195672310000121
h1h+h14≥0
Figure BDA0003195672310000122
Figure BDA0003195672310000123
Figure BDA0003195672310000124
Figure BDA0003195672310000125
Figure BDA0003195672310000126
xst≥0
0≤[lcel lcht lccl]≤[lcel+ lcht+ lccl+]
wherein, H [ ei gi xst]TThe formula is the energy conversion constraint of the integrated energy user, H is the energy conversion matrix, ei and gi are the power and natural gas consumption of the EH, xst＝[gg1,gg2,eee,ee3,e1e,e13,h1h,h14,h2h,h24,c3c,h3h,c4c]Is the state variable of EH, gg1Consumption of natural gas power for cogeneration units, gg2Power of natural gas consumption for gas turbine units, eeeSupplying the power of the electrical load directly to the combined electrical and natural gas system, ee3Electric power directly supplied to electric heat pump for electric natural gas combined system, e1eElectric power supplied to the electric heat pump for the cogeneration unit, e13Supplying the cogeneration unit with electric power of the electric heat pump, h1hSupplying thermal power of thermal load, h, to cogeneration unit14Supplying the cogeneration unit with the thermal power of the absorption chiller h2hSupplying the gas boiler with thermal power of the thermal load, h24Supplying the gas boiler with thermal power of the absorption chiller, c3cSupply of cold power of cold load to electric heat pump, h3hSupplying the heat pump with heat-loaded thermal power, c4cFor supplying the absorption refrigerator with the cold power of the cold load, del、dhtAnd dclThe electric, thermal and cold load requirements of EH, respectively, el, ht and cl represent three energy types of electric, thermal and cold, respectively, lc and lc+Respectively representing the load reduction of each energy type and the upper limit thereof, gamma is the operation mode of the electric heat pump, gamma-1 represents the work heating mode, gamma-0 represents the cooling mode,
Figure BDA0003195672310000131
is the energy efficiency coefficient of the electric heating pump for heating,
Figure BDA0003195672310000132
coefficient of energy efficiency, COP, for electric heat pump refrigeration4In order to absorb the energy efficiency coefficient of the refrigerator,
Figure BDA0003195672310000133
in order to achieve the power generation efficiency of the cogeneration unit,
Figure BDA0003195672310000134
for the heat production efficiency, eta, of cogeneration units2For the efficiency of a gas boiler, formula h1h+h14≥0、
Figure BDA0003195672310000135
Figure BDA0003195672310000136
Form the operation domain of the electric heat cogeneration unit, wherein (E)A,HA)、(EB,HB)、(HC,EC) And (H)D,ED) The four combinations of heat production power and power generation power respectively form four poles of the operation feasible region of the combined heat and power generation unit,
Figure BDA0003195672310000137
and
Figure BDA0003195672310000138
respectively the heat production or refrigeration capacity of the gas boiler, the electric heat pump and the absorption refrigerator,
Figure BDA0003195672310000139
and
Figure BDA00031956723100001310
the minimum heat production or cooling power of these devices, respectively.
S2: establishing a tidal current dynamic characteristic model of the natural gas system based on a continuity and momentum characteristic equation and a linearization technology; it should be noted that:
firstly, modeling the dynamic characteristics of the natural gas flow in a single natural gas pipeline; assuming that the compressibility of natural gas is constant and there is no heat exchange with the outside world in a horizontal natural gas pipeline, the continuity and momentum characteristics of a natural gas flow can be generally described by the following partial differential equations:
Figure BDA00031956723100001311
Figure BDA00031956723100001312
wherein p and q are respectively the gas pressure and flow along the natural gas pipeline as a function of time t and distance x, B is the isothermal wave velocity of the gas, calculated by the gas equation of state, ρ0The natural gas density under standard conditions, D is the diameter of a natural gas pipeline, A is the cross section area of the pipeline, and F is the Vannin transmission coefficient;
on the basis of the above nonlinear partial differential equation, the following assumptions are made: (a) derivative with respect to time
Figure BDA0003195672310000147
Item pair
Figure BDA0003195672310000141
The precision influence of (2) is small, especially in a large-capacity and long-distance natural gas transmission pipeline, so that the precision influence is neglected; (b) under the same system state, the direction of the natural gas tide in the pipeline is always kept consistent; in actual operation, this assumption is also widely adopted by past studies; then
Figure BDA0003195672310000142
The taylor expansion may be further performed near the steady state operating point:
Figure BDA0003195672310000143
wherein p is*、q*A reference point for Taylor expansion of a function of the gas pressure and the power flow of the natural gas, wherein Δ p is p (x, t) -p (x,0), and Δ q is q (x, t) -q (x,0) is increment of the function of the gas pressure and the power flow of the natural gas on the basis of an original steady state solution;
by the finite difference method, the above equation can be further developed as:
Figure BDA0003195672310000144
where k is the ordinal number of the discrete time step, Δ x is the step of the spatial dimension, q ×mAnd pmRespectively referring to the reference points of the tidal current and the air pressure of the natural gas on the pipeline segment m, wherein the selection of the reference point expanded by taylor influences the precision of the calculation result, and then the initial states p (x,0) and q (x,0) of the steady state at the moment when the transient process starts, i.e. t is 0, are selected as the reference points;
general formula
Figure BDA0003195672310000145
Discretization is as follows:
ΔxA(pm+1,k+1+pm,k+1-pm+1,k-pm,k)+Δtρ0B2(qm+1,k+1-qm,k+1+qm+1,k-qm,k)＝0
wherein, Δ t is the step length of the time dimension;
in addition, the node pressure needs to be maintained within a certain range during the demand response:
Figure BDA0003195672310000146
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003195672310000151
and
Figure BDA0003195672310000152
respectively the upper limit and the lower limit of the air pressure of the node i;
after establishing the dynamic equations for all the pipes, the initial conditions are determined according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003195672310000153
Figure BDA0003195672310000154
the boundary condition is determined according to the following formula:
Figure BDA0003195672310000155
Figure BDA0003195672310000156
Figure BDA0003195672310000157
wherein L isijIs the length of the pipe ijThe degree of the magnetic field is measured,
Figure BDA0003195672310000158
and
Figure BDA0003195672310000159
the pressure of a node i and the natural gas flow rate of a pipeline ij obtained in the power and natural gas combined steady-state power flow, sgn (x) is a sign function, sgn (x) is 1 when x is larger than or equal to 0, and sgn (x) is-1 when x is smaller than 0, and CijFor the characteristic parameters of the pipeline in the Weymouth natural gas flow equation,
Figure BDA00031956723100001510
set of natural gas lines to which node i is connected, wiGas production rate of natural gas source of node i, gdiIn order to be the load of the natural gas,
Figure BDA00031956723100001511
is the set of gas turbine groups of node i,
Figure BDA00031956723100001512
generated power, xi, of gas turbine group j as node ii,jFor its efficiency, E is the number of EH, EiSet of EHs, gi, for node ieNatural gas consumption as EH;
for the power system, the power system is coupled with the natural gas system through a gas turbine set and an integrated energy user, so that the model of the operation period is as follows:
Figure BDA00031956723100001513
fij＝(θi-θj)/Xij
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA00031956723100001514
is the collection of non-gas turbine groups on node i,
Figure BDA00031956723100001515
power generation for non-gas turbine units, ediTo the electrical load, eieIs the power consumption of EH, fijFor power flow on line ij, θiIs the phase angle of voltage, XijIs reactive.
S3: according to the flexibility model of the comprehensive energy user, the trend dynamic characteristic model of the natural gas system and the Markov process in a discrete time domain, establishing an operation reliability model of a system element and generating a forward-looking comprehensive energy system emergency state cooperative management technology; it should be noted that:
in the operation process of the comprehensive energy system, the system may enter an emergency state from a normal operation state due to random failure of energy supply elements such as a generator and an air source on a transmission side; in this case, on the one hand, the gas production rate of the gas source and the generated power of the generator set may be rescheduled, and on the other hand, the integrated energy user may also adjust its own operating mode to maintain the balance of supply and demand of the system. In some more severe emergency situations, the electrical or natural gas load may also be curtailed, thereby affecting the reliability of the system. In order to reduce the influence of the emergency state on the system reliability as much as possible, the embodiment makes full use of the flexible model of the integrated energy user and the dynamic model of the power and natural gas combined system to construct a "look-ahead" collaborative management framework of the emergency state of the integrated energy system.
In order to simulate the probability characteristic and the time sequence characteristic of the system emergency state, firstly, modeling is carried out aiming at the reliability of an element; to match the basic scheduling period of the system, the state transition process of an element is treated as a discrete-time markov process with a basic time step of the system state duration being one scheduling period Δ d; in the next scheduling period d +1, the system may enter different states according to whether the element state is transferred and the state after the transfer is different. Assuming that only one element can have a state transition at the same time, the probability that the system is in each state during the next scheduling period can be calculated by:
(1) still remaining in the original state, i.e. without the probability Pr of a state transition of an element during the d +1 period0Can be calculated as:
Figure BDA0003195672310000161
wherein NC is the serial number of the system component, NC is the total number of the system component,
Figure BDA0003195672310000162
for element nc in state hncIs calculated from a partial differential equation describing the state transition of the system, hncFor the state of element nc in the scheduling period d, dncFor the first time element nc is in state hncThe sequence number of the scheduling period of (1);
(2) a state transition occurs, element nc from state hncIs transferred to hncThe probability of' is:
Figure BDA0003195672310000163
and continuously repeating the state generation process to obtain the state sequence of the elements in the operation period, so that the state sequence of the system is formed by combination.
Due to the continuity of the natural gas system in the state caused by the dynamic characteristic of the natural gas flow, the optimization range of the emergency state management is the element operation state in a certain time domain, however, the system scheduling mechanism cannot predict all system state sequences of the operation time period in advance, and only can know the state of the system in the current scheduling time period and predict the system state in a plurality of limited scheduling time periods in the future.
Further, the goal of "look-ahead" integrated energy system emergency coordinated management is to minimize the total cost of operation C over a given time domainT. Where "look ahead" means that optimal control over a certain time domain requires restrictions on the end conditions at the end of the period to prevent misuseThe management is used, so that the operation of the system in the next time domain can have a better system initial state, and the capability of resisting risks in the future scheduling period is maintained; the state variables of the optimization model comprise two categories of state variables of the power and natural gas combined system and state variables of the comprehensive energy users. Wherein, the state variable of the power and natural gas combined system comprises the following parameters in each time step k: natural gas pressure p on each pipeline segment mm,kAnd natural gas flow qm,k(ii) a Output w of natural gas source on natural gas node ii,k(ii) a Load shedding ec on natural gas and power nodes ii,kAnd gci,k(ii) a Generating power of gas turbine set and non-gas turbine set j on power node i
Figure BDA0003195672310000171
And
Figure BDA0003195672310000172
phase angle θ of voltage at power node ii,k. The state variables of the integrated energy users include at each time step k: electric power consumption eie,kAnd natural gas consumption gie,k(ii) a Reduction lc for electric, cold and heat loadlL belongs to { el, cl, ht }; the state variables of the remaining devices of the EH, as noted in fig. 3.
Wherein the total running cost CTComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0003195672310000173
wherein EB and GB are respectively the set of power nodes and natural gas nodes,
Figure BDA0003195672310000174
and CIEGSThe self-scheduling cost of the comprehensive energy user e and the operation cost of the electric power and natural gas combined system are calculated in the following mode:
Figure BDA0003195672310000175
Figure BDA0003195672310000176
wherein K is a set of time steps in a time domain involved in the emergency cooperative management, CDFeAnd CDFgUser loss function, cst, for the electrical and natural gas load, respectivelyi,jIs the generating cost function, gp, of the non-gas turbine set j on the node ii,kFor the natural gas purchase price of the gas source on the node i at the time step k,
Figure BDA0003195672310000181
and
Figure BDA0003195672310000182
respectively the climbing cost coefficients of the non-gas turbine set/gas turbine set j on the node i,
Figure BDA0003195672310000183
is the climbing cost coefficient of the natural gas source on the node i.
Further, the constraints of the operational reliability model for all time steps k include:
power flow constraint of the power system:
Figure BDA0003195672310000184
fij＝(θi-θj)/Xij
Figure BDA0003195672310000185
natural gas dynamic flow and boundary condition constraints;
element upper and lower limit constraints: the upper limit of the power generation capacity or the gas production rate of the element is determined by the failure or repair of the element, and the state sequence of the element in operation is determined by the method; assuming that at time step k, at each element is in state h, then:
Figure BDA0003195672310000186
Figure BDA0003195672310000187
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0003195672310000188
and Wi hRespectively the power generation capacity and the gas production capacity of the non-gas turbine set, the gas turbine set and the gas source when the scheduling time interval is in a state h;
terminal conditions:
pi,j,m,NK≥(1-γ)pi,j,m,0
wherein p isi,j,m,0Representing the air pressure of the natural gas pipeline ij at the pipeline section m in the normal operation state at the time when t is 0, NK is the time step number of the management time domain of the time emergency state, and γ is a relative value of an allowable fluctuation range of the air pressure;
and (4) self-scheduling operation constraint at the user side of the comprehensive energy.
S4: performing operation reliability evaluation on the operation reliability model solving process by a time sequence Monte Carlo method; it should be noted that:
calculating an operational reliability parameter according to a result after each iteration is finished, wherein the operational reliability parameter comprises an expected value EDNS of power supply shortage on the node iiProbability of power supply shortage LOLPiExpected value EENS for insufficient power supplyiNatural gas starvation expected value EGNSiNatural gas starvation probability LOGPiAnd natural gas supply shortage expected value EVNSiAnd calculating to obtain an operation reliability parameter by adopting the following formula:
Figure BDA0003195672310000191
Figure BDA0003195672310000192
Figure BDA0003195672310000193
Figure BDA0003195672310000194
Figure BDA0003195672310000195
Figure BDA0003195672310000196
wherein, N is the sampling times of the time sequence Monte Carlo method, and flag (x) is defined as: flag (x) 1 when x > 0, and flag (x) 0 when x ≦ 0;
the convergence criterion of the time sequence Monte Carlo method is the relative standard deviation of EVNS:
Figure BDA0003195672310000197
wherein Var (x) is the variance of x;
if the formula is satisfied, the operation reliability parameters are considered to be converged, and four operation reliability parameters are output.
According to the method, the operation reliability of the comprehensive energy system is judged, so that weak links and weak time periods in operation of the system can be determined, and decision help is provided for the day-ahead unit combination, equipment switching, operation scheme making and emergency fault management of the system; on one hand, the reliability evaluation method can reflect the reliability of the comprehensive energy system in the operation period more accurately in real time due to the consideration of the dynamic characteristic of natural gas transmission; on the other hand, the method can effectively ensure the reliable energy utilization of the user by utilizing the flexibility of the comprehensive energy user.
Example 2
Referring to fig. 2 to 3, another embodiment of the present invention is different from the first embodiment in that a method for analyzing reliability of an integrated energy system considering flexibility of both supply and demand sides is provided, and in order to verify and explain technical effects adopted in the method, the embodiment adopts specific examples to test the inventive method, and uses a scientific demonstration to verify a real effect of the method.
And processing to obtain the operation reliability of an integrated energy system consisting of an IEEE power and natural gas combined system reliability test system, a Belgian natural gas transmission system and an integrated energy user in a certain test case.
First, parameters of the integrated energy system are initialized. Wherein the schematic structure of the integrated power and gas system is shown in FIG. 2, and the original data of the integrated power and gas system and the gas transmission system are derived from the published documents, Grigg C, Wong P, Albrecht P, et al, the IEEE availability test system-1996.A report prepared by the availability test system task for the application of the performance method is provided by IEEE Transactions on power systems,1999,14(3) 1010. 1020. Table 1, tables 5, 6, 7, table 12 and appendix [ DeWolf D, Smeers Y. the gas transmission solution of the benefits of the Management analysis of the Management of J. 2000. 1464; on this basis, the present embodiment makes the following modifications to this: in the position shown in the figure 2 illustration, the original 12, 20 and 100MW fuel units on the power nodes 15, 13, 14 and 2 are replaced by compatible capacity gas units, the thermal efficiency coefficient is set according to the published setting, the coupling relationship between the gas units and the natural gas system is shown in figure 2, and the user interruption cost valuation of each type of users is set according to the 2 part in the published document Wacker G, Billingon R. customer core of electric service intervals [ J ]. Proceedings of the IEEE,1989,77(6): 919-; the unit valuations of natural gas for each source in a natural gas system are set forth in Table 2 of the publications UNSIHUay C, Lima J W M, De Souza A C Z.
The structure of the integrated energy consumer is shown in fig. 3. The electricity, cold and heat load curves of the Energy user and the capacity and efficiency parameters of the equipment in the EH are set according to the fifth chapter of the literature, "Mancarella P, Chicco G.real-Time Demand from Energy development in Distributed Multi-Generation [ J ]. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2013,4(4): 1928-; the proportion of transferable and reducible loads is set in chapter five of the book "Wangs, Shao C, Ding Y, et al, operational Reliability of Multi-Energy stores Considering Service-Based Self-Scheduling [ J ]. Applied Energy,2019,254:113531.
The implementation process is concretely as follows:
(1) setting the simulated operation duration, the scheduling interval duration, the time step length and the length step length of a finite difference method, setting reliability parameters of each device in an air source, a gas turbine unit, a non-gas turbine unit and an EH, setting pure electric load and natural gas load curves in an electric and natural gas combined system and electric, cold and hot terminal demand load curves of a comprehensive energy user, setting relevant physical characteristic parameters of the comprehensive energy system, and determining the number of scheduling time periods involved in each emergency cooperative management;
(2) according to the method described in embodiment 1, a system state sequence of each scheduling period is generated, including the gas production capacity of the natural gas source and the power generation capacity of the gas turbine set and the non-gas turbine set;
(3) observing whether an emergency state appears in the Monte Carlo simulation in the current running period, if not, indicating that the load reduction does not appear in the simulation, and entering the step (6); if the emergency state occurs, calculating the running state of the system at the moment before the emergency state occurs as an initial condition by adopting a steady-state power and natural gas combined optimization tide technology and a comprehensive energy user self-scheduling strategy according to the power and natural gas load at the moment of the emergency state and the comprehensive energy requirement of the comprehensive energy user;
(4) respectively updating the upper and lower limit constraints of the elements according to the states of the system elements in the scheduling period;
(5) executing emergency state cooperative management according to the optimization model to obtain the running state of the system in each time step in the scheduling period and the node power and natural gas load reduction;
(6) rolling and repeatedly executing the steps (4) to (5) until the operation time period is finished, so that the reduction of the electric power and the natural gas load on each time step in the operation time period can be obtained;
(7) calculating an operation reliability index, judging whether the time sequence Monte Carlo simulation reaches a convergence criterion, and if so, outputting the operation reliability index as an evaluation result; otherwise, the next time sequence Monte Carlo simulation is executed again from the step (1).
The method proposed according to the invention thus yields an index of the operational reliability of the system, as shown in table 1.
Table 1: and (4) a reliability index table of the comprehensive energy system.
Figure BDA0003195672310000211
Figure BDA0003195672310000221
It can be seen that, due to the adoption of the time-varying load, the reliability indexes of the power system and the natural gas system tend to 0 respectively in the vicinity of 0-7h with a lower power load level and 0-4h with a lower natural gas load level, and later, the reliability indexes also start to increase along with the increase of the load.
Table 2: and (4) a node reliability index table of the comprehensive energy system.
Figure BDA0003195672310000222
Figure BDA0003195672310000231
As shown in table 2, it can be seen that, because the line transmission capacity of the power system is large, the reliability distribution of different nodes is relatively balanced, whereas in the natural gas system, GB20 is located at the end of the natural gas transmission branch and has no large gas source nearby, so its EVNS is significantly higher than other nodes, and in general, because of the flexibility brought by the dynamic characteristics of the natural gas system, the reliability of the natural gas system is relatively high, and the reliability of the natural gas nodes located nearby the gas source nodes, such as GB 3, 6, 7, etc., is relatively high in all nodes.
Therefore, the method can accurately analyze the operation reliability of the comprehensive energy system under the condition of considering the dynamic characteristic of the transmission side and the flexibility of the demand side, thereby providing quantitative index basis for the reliability management of the scheduling mechanism of the comprehensive energy system, filling the blank of the industry and realizing the outstanding method effect.
It should be noted that the above-mentioned embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting, and although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, it should be understood by those skilled in the art that modifications or equivalent substitutions may be made on the technical solutions of the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the present invention, which should be covered by the claims of the present invention.

Claims (9)

1. An integrated energy system reliability analysis method considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand is characterized by comprising the following steps:
establishing a flexibility model of a comprehensive energy user based on a physical model of the equipment and an energy substitution effect;
establishing a tidal current dynamic characteristic model of the natural gas system based on a continuity and momentum characteristic equation and a linearization technology;
establishing an operation reliability model of system elements according to the flexibility model of the comprehensive energy user, the flow dynamic characteristic model of the natural gas system and the Markov process in a discrete time domain, and generating a forward-looking comprehensive energy system emergency state cooperative management technology;
and evaluating the operational reliability of the operational reliability model solving process by a time sequence Monte Carlo method.
2. The method for analyzing the reliability of an integrated energy system considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand according to claim 1, wherein: the comprehensive energy system comprises a transmission side and a demand side, wherein the transmission side is an electric power and natural gas combined system, and the demand side is a comprehensive energy user.
3. The method for analyzing the reliability of an integrated energy system considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand according to claim 1, wherein: the flexibility of the integrated energy user is determined by the feasible domain in which it operates, with constraints including,
H[ei gi xst]T＝[del-lcel dht-lcht dcl-lccl 01×8]T
Figure FDA0003195672300000011
h1h+h14≥0
Figure FDA0003195672300000012
Figure FDA0003195672300000013
Figure FDA0003195672300000014
Figure FDA0003195672300000021
Figure FDA0003195672300000022
xst≥0
0≤[lcel lcht lccl]≤[lcel+ lcht+ lccl+]
wherein, H [ ei gi xst]TThe formula is the energy conversion constraint of the integrated energy user, H is the energy conversion matrix, ei and gi are the power and natural gas consumption of the EH, xst＝[gg1,gg2,eee,ee3,e1e,e13,h1h,h14,h2h,h24,c3c,h3h,c4c]Is the state variable of EH, gg1Consumption of natural gas power for cogeneration units, gg2Power of natural gas consumption for gas turbine units, eeeSupplying the power of the electrical load directly to the combined electrical and natural gas system, ee3Electric power directly supplied to electric heat pump for electric natural gas combined system, e1eElectric power supplied to the electric heat pump for the cogeneration unit, e13Supplying the cogeneration unit with electric power of the electric heat pump, h1hSupplying thermal power of thermal load, h, to cogeneration unit14Supplying the cogeneration unit with the thermal power of the absorption chiller h2hSupplying the gas boiler with thermal power of the thermal load, h24Supplying the gas boiler with thermal power of the absorption chiller, c3cSupply of cold power of cold load to electric heat pump, h3hSupplying the heat pump with heat-loaded thermal power, c4cFor supplying the absorption refrigerator with the cold power of the cold load, del、dhtAnd dclElectricity, heat, respectively EHThe demand of the cold load, el, ht and cl represent the three energy types of electricity, heat and cold, respectively, lc and lc+Respectively representing the load reduction of each energy type and the upper limit thereof, wherein gamma is the operation mode of the electric heat pump, gamma-1 represents the work heating mode, gamma-0 represents the cooling mode, and COP3 hCoefficient of energy efficiency, COP, for heating electric heat pumps3 cCoefficient of energy efficiency, COP, for electric heat pump refrigeration4In order to absorb the energy efficiency coefficient of the refrigerator,
Figure FDA0003195672300000023
in order to achieve the power generation efficiency of the cogeneration unit,
Figure FDA0003195672300000024
for the heat production efficiency, eta, of cogeneration units2For the efficiency of a gas boiler, formula h1h+h14≥0、
Figure FDA0003195672300000025
Figure FDA0003195672300000026
Form the operation domain of the electric heat cogeneration unit, wherein (E)A,HA)、(EB,HB)、(HC,EC) And (H)D,ED) The four combinations of heat production power and power generation power respectively form four poles of the operation feasible region of the combined heat and power generation unit,
Figure FDA0003195672300000027
and
Figure FDA0003195672300000031
respectively the heat production or refrigeration capacity of the gas boiler, the electric heat pump and the absorption refrigerator,
Figure FDA0003195672300000032
and
Figure FDA0003195672300000033
the minimum heat production or cooling power of these devices, respectively.
4. The method for analyzing the reliability of an integrated energy system considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand according to claim 1, wherein: the establishing of the power flow dynamic characteristic model of the natural gas system comprises the following steps,
modeling the dynamic behavior of the natural gas flow within a single natural gas pipeline:
the natural gas flow is defined in a horizontal natural gas pipeline, the compressibility of the natural gas is constant, and no heat exchange is carried out with the outside, and the continuity and the momentum characteristic of the natural gas flow are described by the following partial differential equation system:
Figure FDA0003195672300000034
Figure FDA0003195672300000035
wherein p and q are respectively the gas pressure and flow along the natural gas pipeline as a function of time t and distance x, B is the isothermal wave velocity of the gas, calculated by the gas equation of state, ρ0The natural gas density under standard conditions, D is the diameter of a natural gas pipeline, A is the cross section area of the pipeline, and F is the Vannin transmission coefficient;
formula (II)
Figure FDA0003195672300000036
Taylor expansion is further performed near the steady state operating point:
Figure FDA0003195672300000037
wherein p is*、q*Parameters for Taylor expansion as a function of gas pressure and flow of natural gasThe reference point is that Δ p ═ p (x, t) -p (x,0) and Δ q ═ q (x, t) -q (x,0) are increments of the functions of the gas pressure and the power flow of the natural gas on the basis of the original steady state solution;
by the finite difference method, the above equation can be further developed as:
Figure FDA0003195672300000038
where k is the ordinal number of the discrete time step, Δ x is the step of the spatial dimension,
Figure FDA0003195672300000039
and
Figure FDA00031956723000000310
respectively referring to the reference points of the tidal current and the air pressure of the natural gas on the pipeline segment m, wherein the selection of the reference point expanded by taylor influences the precision of the calculation result, and then the initial states p (x,0) and q (x,0) of the steady state at the moment when the transient process starts, i.e. t is 0, are selected as the reference points;
general formula
Figure FDA0003195672300000041
Discretization is as follows:
ΔxA(pm+1,k+1+pm,k+1-pm+1,k-pm,k)+Δtρ0B2(qm+1,k+1-qm,k+1+qm+1,k-qm,k)＝0
wherein, Δ t is the step length of the time dimension;
in addition, the node pressure needs to be maintained within a certain range during the demand response:
Figure FDA0003195672300000042
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003195672300000043
and
Figure FDA0003195672300000044
respectively the upper limit and the lower limit of the air pressure of the node i;
after establishing the dynamic equations for all the pipes, the initial conditions are determined according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003195672300000045
Figure FDA0003195672300000046
the boundary condition is determined according to the following formula:
Figure FDA0003195672300000047
Figure FDA0003195672300000048
Figure FDA0003195672300000049
wherein L isijFor the length of the pipe ij,
Figure FDA00031956723000000410
and
Figure FDA00031956723000000411
the pressure of a node i and the natural gas flow rate of a pipeline ij obtained in the power and natural gas combined steady-state power flow, sgn (x) is a sign function, sgn (x) is 1 when x is larger than or equal to 0, and sgn (x) is-1 when x is smaller than 0, and CijFor the characteristic parameters of the pipeline in the Weymouth natural gas flow equation,
Figure FDA00031956723000000412
set of natural gas lines to which node i is connected, wiGas production rate of natural gas source of node i, gdiIn order to be the load of the natural gas,
Figure FDA00031956723000000413
is the set of gas turbine groups of node i,
Figure FDA00031956723000000414
generated power, xi, of gas turbine group j as node ii,jFor its efficiency, E is the number of EH, EiSet of EHs, gi, for node ieNatural gas consumption as EH;
for the power system, the power system is coupled with the natural gas system through a gas turbine set and an integrated energy user, so that the model of the operation period is as follows:
Figure FDA0003195672300000051
fij＝(θi-θj)/Xij
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003195672300000052
is the collection of non-gas turbine groups on node i,
Figure FDA0003195672300000053
power generation for non-gas turbine units, ediTo the electrical load, eieIs the power consumption of EH, fijFor power flow on line ij, θiIs the phase angle of voltage, XijIs reactive.
5. The method for analyzing the reliability of an integrated energy system considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand according to claim 1, wherein: the establishing of the operational reliability model of the system component comprises,
in order to match the basic scheduling period of the system, the state transition process of the element is regarded as a discrete-time markov process, the basic time step of the system state duration is one scheduling period Δ d, in the next scheduling period d +1, the system may enter different states according to whether the element state transitions or not and the state after the transition, and only one element can transition at the same time, so that the probability that the system is in each state in the next scheduling period is calculated by the following formula:
still remaining in the original state, i.e. without the probability Pr of a state transition of an element during the d +1 period0Can be calculated as:
Figure FDA0003195672300000054
wherein NC is the serial number of the system component, NC is the total number of the system component,
Figure FDA0003195672300000055
for element nc in state hncIs calculated from a partial differential equation describing the state transition of the system, hncFor the state of element nc in the scheduling period d, dncFor the first time element nc is in state hncThe sequence number of the scheduling period of (1);
a state transition occurs, element nc from state hncIs transferred to hncThe probability of' is:
Figure FDA0003195672300000056
and continuously repeating the state generation process to obtain the state sequence of the elements in the operation period, so that the state sequence of the system is formed by combination.
6. The consideration of claim 1 forThe method for analyzing the reliability of the comprehensive energy system requiring bilateral flexibility is characterized by comprising the following steps of: the goal of the "look-ahead" integrated energy system emergency coordinated management technique is to minimize the total cost of operation C over a given time domainT：
Figure FDA0003195672300000061
Wherein EB and GB are respectively the set of power nodes and natural gas nodes,
Figure FDA0003195672300000062
and CIEGSThe self-scheduling cost of the comprehensive energy user e and the operation cost of the electric power and natural gas combined system are calculated in the following mode:
Figure FDA0003195672300000063
Figure FDA0003195672300000064
wherein K is a set of time steps in a time domain involved in the emergency cooperative management, CDFeAnd CDFgUser loss function, cst, for the electrical and natural gas load, respectivelyi,jIs the generating cost function, gp, of the non-gas turbine set j on the node ii,kFor the natural gas purchase price of the gas source on the node i at the time step k,
Figure FDA0003195672300000065
and
Figure FDA0003195672300000066
respectively the climbing cost coefficients of the non-gas turbine set/gas turbine set j on the node i,
Figure FDA0003195672300000067
is the climbing cost coefficient of the natural gas source on the node i.
7. The method for analyzing the reliability of an integrated energy system considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand according to claim 1 or 5, wherein: the state variables of the operation reliability model comprise the state variables of the power and natural gas combined system and the state variables of the comprehensive energy users;
the state variables of the power and natural gas combined system comprise at each time step k: natural gas pressure p on each pipeline segment mm,kAnd natural gas flow qm,k(ii) a Output w of natural gas source on natural gas node ii,k(ii) a Load shedding ec on natural gas and power nodes ii,kAnd gci,k(ii) a Generating power of gas turbine set and non-gas turbine set j on power node i
Figure FDA0003195672300000068
And
Figure FDA0003195672300000069
phase angle θ of voltage at power node ii,k；
The state variables of the integrated energy users comprise the following state variables of each user e in each time step k: electric power consumption eie,kAnd natural gas consumption gie,k(ii) a Reduction lc for electric, cold and heat loadlL belongs to { el, cl, ht }; state variables of the remaining devices of the EH.
8. The method for analyzing the reliability of an integrated energy system considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand according to claim 7, wherein: the constraints of the operational reliability model for all time steps k include,
power flow constraint of the power system:
Figure FDA0003195672300000071
fij＝(θi-θj)/Xij
Figure FDA0003195672300000072
natural gas dynamic flow and boundary condition constraints;
element upper and lower limit constraints:
Figure FDA0003195672300000073
Figure FDA0003195672300000074
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003195672300000075
and Wi hRespectively the power generation capacity and the gas production capacity of the non-gas turbine set, the gas turbine set and the gas source when the scheduling time interval is in a state h;
terminal conditions:
pi,j,m,NK≥(1-γ)pi,j,m,0
wherein p isi,j,m,0Representing the air pressure of the natural gas pipeline ij at the pipeline section m in the normal operation state at the time when t is 0, NK is the time step number of the management time domain of the time emergency state, and γ is a relative value of an allowable fluctuation range of the air pressure;
and (4) self-scheduling operation constraint at the user side of the comprehensive energy.
9. The method for analyzing the reliability of an integrated energy system considering bilateral flexibility of supply and demand according to claim 8, wherein: the evaluation of the operational reliability model solution process by the time sequence monte carlo method comprises,
calculating the operation reliability parameters according to the result after each iteration is finished,the operational reliability parameter includes an expected value of power supply starvation EDNS on node iiProbability of power supply shortage LOLPiExpected value EENS for insufficient power supplyiNatural gas starvation expected value EGNSiNatural gas starvation probability LOGPiAnd natural gas supply shortage expected value EVNSiAnd calculating to obtain the operation reliability parameter by adopting the following formula:
Figure FDA0003195672300000076
Figure FDA0003195672300000081
Figure FDA0003195672300000082
Figure FDA0003195672300000083
Figure FDA0003195672300000084
Figure FDA0003195672300000085
wherein, N is the sampling times of the time sequence Monte Carlo method, and flag (x) is defined as: flag (x) 1 when x > 0, and flag (x) 0 when x ≦ 0;
the convergence criterion of the time sequence Monte Carlo method is the relative standard deviation of EVNS:
Figure FDA0003195672300000086
wherein Var (x) is the variance of x;
if the formula is satisfied, the operation reliability parameters are considered to be converged, and four operation reliability parameters are output.
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